Evolution to 5G from a 4G/LTE World

Alan Hadden

www.haddentelecoms.com

@alanhadden

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Lisbon May 3-4, 2017

Global MBB footprint with 4G/LTE

Over 80% of world’s population may be covered by LTE systems by end 2022

(> 50% today estimated)

2 billion LTE subs connected (Feb 2017)

-  25% market technology share -  forecast 4 billion LTE subs in 2020 (Ovum)

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c. 600 commercially launched LTE networks* in nearly 200 countries

- expect 650+ networks total by end 2017

*includes LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro systems

Rapid migration to LTE-Advanced

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1 in 3 operators commercially launched LTE-Advanced systems

-  main industry trend, global

-  Majority for deployments in EMEA

Most support 300 Mbps DL speed (for Cat 6 user devices)

-  no. of 450 Mbps (Cat 9) growing as device availability improves -  even faster speeds being introduced into some markets

-  Gigabit LTE is a reality with LTE-Advanced Pro systems launched

Technology evolution global forecast

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NOVEMBER 2016 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 9

Mobile subscriptions in Middle East and Africa are mainly GSM/EDGE-only, while in Western Europe and North America the majority are WCDMA/HSPA and LTE

Over the forecast period, Middle East and Africa will dramatically shift from a region with a majority of GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions, to a region where 80 percent of the subscriptions will be WCDMA/HSPA and LTE. However, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will still account for a significant share of subscriptions by 2022. In Latin America, WCDMA/HSPA and LTE already account for around 60 percent of all mobile subscriptions – a number that is expected to increase to 90 percent in 2022.

Asia Pacific is a diverse region. Despite ongoing deployment of LTE in China, which will result in more than 1.2 billion LTE subscriptions in the country by the end of 2022, LTE subscriptions will represent just 50 percent of all subscriptions in the region by the end of the same period. This will be around one quarter of the global total. 5G subscriptions will account for around 10 percent of all subscriptions in the region in 2022, with deployments starting in South Korea, Japan and China. All three of these countries will host Olympic games in the coming six years, and have stated intentions to launch 5G services in conjunction with the games.

In Central and Eastern Europe, the share of LTE subscriptions is anticipated to grow strongly from around 10 percent in 2016 to 70 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2022.

In Western Europe, the share of mobile broadband subscriptions is high due to well-developed WCDMA/HSPA networks and early LTE rollout. The regional share of 5G subscriptions will be 5 percent in 2022. Overall, North America is the region with the highest share of LTE subscriptions due to rapid migration from CDMA and WCDMA/HSPA-based networks. In 2022, the region will have the highest share of 5G subscriptions at 25 percent.

GSM/EDGE-onlyLTE

WCDMA/HSPA5G TD-SCDMA

CDMA-only

20

40

0

60

80

100

Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent)

North America

2016 2022

65%LTE

25%5G

Latin America

2016 2022

50%WCDMA/HSPA

55%LTE

Asia Pacific

2016

40%GSM/EDGE-only

2022

50%LTE

Middle East and Africa

2016 2022

65%GSM/EDGE-only

50%WCDMA/HSPA

Central and Eastern Europe

2016 2022

50%WCDMA/HSPA

70%LTE

Western Europe

2016 2022

50%WCDMA/HSPA

90%LTE

25% of subscriptions in North America and 10% in Asia Pacific will be for 5G in 2022

NOVEMBER 2016 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 9

Mobile subscriptions in Middle East and Africa are mainly GSM/EDGE-only, while in Western Europe and North America the majority are WCDMA/HSPA and LTE

Over the forecast period, Middle East and Africa will dramatically shift from a region with a majority of GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions, to a region where 80 percent of the subscriptions will be WCDMA/HSPA and LTE. However, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will still account for a significant share of subscriptions by 2022. In Latin America, WCDMA/HSPA and LTE already account for around 60 percent of all mobile subscriptions – a number that is expected to increase to 90 percent in 2022.

Asia Pacific is a diverse region. Despite ongoing deployment of LTE in China, which will result in more than 1.2 billion LTE subscriptions in the country by the end of 2022, LTE subscriptions will represent just 50 percent of all subscriptions in the region by the end of the same period. This will be around one quarter of the global total. 5G subscriptions will account for around 10 percent of all subscriptions in the region in 2022, with deployments starting in South Korea, Japan and China. All three of these countries will host Olympic games in the coming six years, and have stated intentions to launch 5G services in conjunction with the games.

In Central and Eastern Europe, the share of LTE subscriptions is anticipated to grow strongly from around 10 percent in 2016 to 70 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2022.

In Western Europe, the share of mobile broadband subscriptions is high due to well-developed WCDMA/HSPA networks and early LTE rollout. The regional share of 5G subscriptions will be 5 percent in 2022. Overall, North America is the region with the highest share of LTE subscriptions due to rapid migration from CDMA and WCDMA/HSPA-based networks. In 2022, the region will have the highest share of 5G subscriptions at 25 percent.

GSM/EDGE-onlyLTE

WCDMA/HSPA5G TD-SCDMA

CDMA-only

20

40

0

60

80

100

Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent)

North America

2016 2022

65%LTE

25%5G

Latin America

2016 2022

50%WCDMA/HSPA

55%LTE

Asia Pacific

2016

40%GSM/EDGE-only

2022

50%LTE

Middle East and Africa

2016 2022

65%GSM/EDGE-only

50%WCDMA/HSPA

Central and Eastern Europe

2016 2022

50%WCDMA/HSPA

70%LTE

Western Europe

2016 2022

50%WCDMA/HSPA

90%LTE

25% of subscriptions in North America and 10% in Asia Pacific will be for 5G in 2022

ON THE PULSE OF THE NETWORKED SOCIETY

Ericsson Mobility Report

NOVEMBER 2016

LTE-Advanced Pro

LTE-Advanced Pro users enables the Gigabit LTE era and new business opportunities: •  LTE deployment in unlicensed spectrum •  NB-IoT and Cat M1 for LPWA applications (cellular IoT) •  Extends/enhances CA •  D2D •  Lower latency •  Higher order MIMO •  Advanced antenna features •  Faster speeds: Gigabit MBB •  Mission critical PTT •  and more …. •  Essential bridge from 4G to 5G

3GPP Release 13 & beyond

19 commercially launched LTE-Advanced Pro networks

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Massive MIMO Network slicing

Some “5G-like” features will appear in LTE-Advanced systems:

The Internet of Things opportunity

IoT includes:

Connected cars Machinery

Utility meters Remote metering

Consumer electronics

From 2018 mobile phone connections will be surpassed by IoT 16 billion IoT devices forecast by 2021

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ON THE PULSE OF THE NETWORKED SOCIETY

Ericsson Mobility Report

NOVEMBER 2016

Current 3GPP CIoT solutions

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NB-IoT, LTE-M deployments

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4 commercial networks (Telus CAN, T-Mobile NL, Telia NO, Vodafone ES) - several more are very close to commercial launch

A further 40 networks in 29 countries trialling, demonstrating or planning to deploy - plus commitments to deploy by multi-country operator groups

2 commercial networks (Verizon and AT&T – both in US)

12 additional networks in 10 countries trialling, demonstrating or planning to deploy

NB-IoT

LTE-M

Source: GSA

Massive MTC

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LTE-Advanced Pro (Rel-13) addresses the needs of massive MTC use cases as NB1 (aka NB-IoT) feature

Diagram: Grandmetric blog

•  Rel-14 adds support for positioning, multicast and non-anchor carrier operation

•  Rel-15 adds small cell support plus TDD support for in-band, guard band & standalone operational modes

Not only about speed

AND ….. new spectrum will be needed

Smart Cities / IoT 5G enables the

industrial Internet Connected cars

Much more than mobile broadband connectivity

. . .and much more

Current 5G expectations

Industry transformation

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Opportunities using 5G

Cloudification Big data NFV and SDN Connecting the unconnected Enterprise mobility / digital transformation Addressing the needs of vertical industries Autonomous vehicles

5G is “the foundation for realising the full potential of the Networked Society“ and is absolutely necessary: q  to address mass-market adoption scale q  To enable many new use cases q  to allow organisations to move into new markets and build new revenue

streams with new business models and use cases

Major 5G research activities under way q  APAC including China q  Europe q  USA

5G service launch in 2020 – may be sooner

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5G in a nutshell

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Source: Viavi Solutions, February 2017

5G trial results

Spectrum bands used range from < 3GHz to 86GHz

Participating system vendors: Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, ZTE

Source: Viavi Solutions, February 2017

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5G standards

3GPP continues to expand the LTE platform continuing on from Rel-13 to future Rel-14, Rel-15 including enhancements to LTE-Advanced Pro

5G system standardisation is underway in 3GPP

•  March 2017: Agreement on an earlier completion date of March 2018 of Non-Standalone (NSA) 5G NR mode for enhanced MBB (this enables acceleration of standards-based field trials from 2019)

•  Standard for Standalone (SA) 5G NR mode by September 2018 (unchanged)

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Spectrum for 5G systems

New spectrum is needed for 5G

Greatest economies of scale will come if number of different bands used for 5G is kept small

Leading system vendors* favour these bands as a basis for harmonisation on a global or regional basis •  600 MHz, 700 MHz •  3.3–3.4 GHz, 3.4–3.6 GHz, 3.6–3.8 GHz, 3.8–4.2 GHz o 4.4–4.99 GHz •  24.25–29.5 GHz •  29.5–33.4 GHz •  37–43.5 GHz •  66–86 GHz

* Members of the GSA Spectrum Group

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Rel-15 improvements for LTE

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•  1024QAM – to improve spectral efficiency for small cell LTE deployments

•  LAA/eLAA – to enable operation in CBRS band (3.5 – 3.7GHz) in the US

•  Improving LTE operation in unlicensed spectrum

•  Enhancements to V2X

•  Improvements to NB-IoT

Diagram: Grandmetric blog

5G deployment prospects

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•  At least 18 operators announced commitments to deploy pre-standards “5G” networks in 13 countries

•  First launches are expected to be in Italy and US

Thank you !

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Alan Hadden

www.haddentelecoms.com

@alanhadden