Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes

Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago

Eric LenningSOO - NWS Chicago

Many Challenges and Questions

This takes a lot of time and energy….….and we have no ideahow well we are doing.

MAFORS US“R”

Many Challenges and Questions

Lots of effortto create/collaborate grids

and edit text products.

Many Challenges and Questions

What observationsare representative?

Many Challenges and Questions

What does our forecast represent?GLF/NSH (zones?) vs MAFOR vs

Point-Click vs Graphics

?

Many Challenges and Questions

How do customersinterpret forecasts?

Many Challenges and Questions

What do customersactually need?

(Rags vs Tugs vs Freighters)

Many Challenges and Questions

Waves!Significant vsMaximum vsOccasional

Many Challenges and Questions

Winds:Surface vs 10m vs 30m

Sustained vs GustsStability Issues

Where do we start?• Success in the aviation program• Where are we at now?• Communication is key!• Start with the customer

"Your most unhappy customersare your greatest source of learning." - Bill Gates

Communicate

Investigate/Brainstorm/ Develop

User/Forecaster Training

Evaluate

Goals for Outreach Initiative• Better understand needs of mariners• Evaluate current services• Better understand the marine environment• Better leverage current technological capabilities• Funnel insights into

product and serviceevolution/improvement

Valuable Decision Tool

Properly Interpreted

RepresentativeEffectively

Communicated

How do we do this?

• Communication! • Enlist the resources of the 5 open lake offices

(Chicago, Marquette, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo)• Identify common challenges/concerns, top priorities• Develop a common approach to outreach• Conduct visits with vessels in nearby ports• Identify improvements and work with

regional/national HQ to implement

• Feedback steers our course

Key Benefits of Visits• Establish how current forecast services are

interpreted and understood• Raise awareness of the marine environment• Gain better understanding of how obs are taken• A two-way training opportunity• Build relationships

Results thus far…

• 8 Freighters and Tug/Barges • 1 USCG Icebreaker• 3 Charter boats (who frequent the open waters)

Early Findings• “Occasional” Waves: mixed reviews• 10 and 30 m winds: mixed reviews• Forecast Discussions: not widely known about but

very enthusiastic response

• Surface weather maps are important

• Desire for more ice forecast information

• Desire for a more effective “one-stop” for all weather information

• Provide periodic brief weather related training materials, service reminders, etc, via e-mail??

The Plan

• Identify exactly what we wish to include in our products, and how it will be communicated.

• Make sure every forecaster in every marine office is creating the very same products.

• Agree on objective methods for tracking the accuracy of these forecast products.

The Plan

• Track effectiveness of these products, likely through outreach efforts.

• Evaluate efficiency of the product creation process vs product accuracy/effectiveness.

• Utilize verification statistics and user feedback to evolve these products and the process through which they are created.

Thank You!Questions/Comments?