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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYOctober 2010

2

SOLAR GENERATION 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY october 2010

WIND

BIOMASS

GEOTHERMAL

OCEAN & WAVE

HYDRO

COAL

OIL

GAS

URANIUM

FIGURE 1 SOLAR IRRADIATIONVERSUS ESTABLISHEDGLOBAL ENERGYRESOURCES

FOSSIL FUELS ARE EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THEIR TOTAL RESERVES WHILE RENEWABLE ENERGIES TO THEIR YEARLY POTENTIAL.

ANNUAL SOLARIRRADIATION TO THE EARTH

GLOBAL ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

3

INTRODUCTION1

1. INTRODUCTION

The growing appetite for energy in the entire world,the implications of climate change, the increasingdamages to our environment and the scarcity offossil fuels have created the appropriate conditionsfor renewable energies development. For decadeswe have known that just a small percentage of thesun’s energy reaching the earth’s surface on a dailybasis could power the entire mankind several timesover. The time has come for solar photovoltaic (PV)electricity to be a part of the global solution to fightclimate change and to help us shift to a carbon-free economy. It is also, in addition, a prosperousindustry sector in its own right.

Unlimited power from the Sun

The solar irradiation received by the earth everyyear is by far larger than the sum of the completefossil and fissile reserves.

There are virtually no constraints of materialavailability, no industry limitation, no environmentalconstraints to the deployment of solar PVelectricity. Solar PV electricity has an excellentenvironmental footprint; in average, the energynecessary to produce a PV panel is approximatelyfrom two years to 6 months -depending of thelocation- of the electricity it will produce during itslifetime, which is of at least 20 or 25 years.

It can integrate seamlessly in highly dense urbanenvironments, as well as desert areas. The quickramp-up capabilities ensure the ability to follow theneed for new energy demands.

The course for the solar age is being set today

Recognizing the significant benefits of PV technology,more than 50 national or regional governments world-wide have been adopting support mechanisms toaccelerate the deployment of PV.

Over 1,000 companies are producing “crystallinesilicon” technology products and more than 160companies Thin Film technology ones. Othercompanies are working in the areas of concentratorPV while new technologies like organic PV are onthe brink of their commercial development.

Once PV was a curiosity used for spaceexploration. Since then, a real market has seen theday.In 2009 in Europe, PV has reached the 3rdplace following wind and gas in terms of annualnew installed capacity and is expected to go evenhigher in 2010. With more than 30 GW of PVinstalled at the end of 2010, solar electricity isgoing mainstream.

Prices are dropping fast

With PV prices dropping consistently by 22% eachtime the cumulated global production doubles, PVprices have dropped by 40% over the last two yearsand are expected to decrease up to 60% in 2020.

The average efficiencies of solar modules havealso improved a couple of percentage points peryear. It ranges currently at 15-19 % and with atarget of 18-23% in 2010, the efficiencies in 2020will drive prices even further down andconcentrator PV systems will reach efficienciesabove 30% in the coming years.

The time has come for solarelectricity tobe a part ofthe globalsolution tofight climatechange.

2000

1,428

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

2001

1,762

2002

2,236

2003

2,818

2004

3,939

2005

5,361

2006

6,956

2007

9,550

2008

15,675

2009

22,878

CHINA

USA

REST OF WORLD

JAPAN

EU

FIGURE 2 EVOLUTION OF TOTALINSTALLED CAPACITY FORPV IN THE LAST DECADEMW

source: Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014, EPIA, May 2010.

4

2. REFERENCE FOR THE FUTURE

This publication is the sixth edition of the referenceglobal solar scenarios that have been establishedby the European Photovoltaic Industry Association(EPIA) and Greenpeace jointly for almost ten years.They provide well documented scenariosestablishing the PV deployment potential world-wide by 2050.

2. REFERENCE FOR THE FUTURE

The first edition of Solar Generation was publishedin 2001. Since then, each year, the actual globalPV market has grown faster that the industry andGreenpeace had predicted (see table 1).

The solar PV market has outpaced “Solar Generation” predictions by nine years.

Year

Market Result MW

SG I 2001

SG II 2004

SG III 2006

SG IV 2007

SG V 2008

SG VI 2010

2001

334

331

2002

439

408

2003

594

518

2004

1,052

659

2005

1,320

838

985

2006

1,467

1,060

1,283

1,883

2007

2,392

1,340

1,675

2,540

2,179

2008

6,090

1,700

2,190

3,420

3,129

4,175

2009

7,203

2,150

2,877

4,630

4,339

5,160

2010

2,810

3,634

5,550

5,650

6,950

13,625

TABLE 1 ANNUAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITYMW

REFERENCE FOR THE FUTURE

2

ConcentratorPhotovoltaics installedon trackers to follow the sun. © Concentrix

5

3. SOLAR GENERATION 6METHODOLOGY

The scenarios provide projections for installedcapacity and energy output for the 40 comingyears. In addition it evaluates the level ofinvestment required, the number of jobs it wouldcreate and the crucial effect that an increasedinput from solar electricity will have on the loweringof global greenhouse gas emissions.

Taking into account the successful developmentof PV markets during last few years, the previouslydefined scenarios as “advanced” and “moderated”have been renamed respectfully as “paradigmshift” and “accelerated” ones.

The Paradigm Shift Scenario (previously“advanced”) estimates the full potential of PV. Theassumption is that current support levels arestrengthened, deepened and accompanied by avariety of instruments and administrative measuresthat will push the deployment of PV forward.

The Accelerated Scenario (previously“moderate”) is a continuation of current supportpolicies and requires a lower level of politicalcommitment than the “Paradigm Shift”. Its targetsfor 2030 could be achieved in 20 years without anymajor technology changes in the electricity grids.

The Reference Scenario is based on thereference scenario found in the International EnergyAgency’s 2009 World Energy Outlook (WEO 2009)analysis, extrapolated to 2030. According to this,China and India are expected to grow faster thanother regions, followed by the Other DevelopingAsia group of countries, Africa and the TransitionEconomies (mainly the former Soviet Union).

SOLARGENERATION 6METHODOLOGY

3

PV Pergola, Forum Barcelona. © Isofoton

Workers installing thin filmmodules on a flat roof. © First Solar

6

Assumptions

In order to assess the PV penetration in the threescenarios, the limitations that occur by thecombination of different technologies are taken into

account. This assumption also assumes littleprogress in storage systems in the short term.

Regional split

Two estimates for electricityconsumption

Carbon dioxidesavings

Employment

Capacity factor

Learning factor

Cost of PV systems

All three scenarios present a view of the future using global figures and calculate regional values

for PV growth. The regions defined are the European Union (27 member states), non EU

European states, OECD Pacific (including South Korea), OECD North America, Latin America,

East Asia, Developing Asia (excluding South Korea), India, China, the Middle East, Africa and

the Transition Economies (mainly the former Soviet Union).

The global “IEA electricity demandReference Scenario” simply takes

the projections by the International Energy

Agency (WEO 2009) into account.

These show an increase in the global

power demand.

17,928 TWh/a in 2010

22,840 TWh/a in 2020

28,954 TWh/a in 2030

39,360 TWh/a In 2050

17,338 TWh/a in 2010

19,440 TWh/a in 2020

20,164 TWh/a in 2030

31,795 TWh/a in 2050

The global electricity demand from the

Greenpeace/European Renewable Energy

Council “Energy [R]evolution scenario”report (June 2010) takes extensive energy

efficiency measures into account.

Over the whole of the scenario period, it is assumed that PV installations will save on average

0.6 kg equivalent of CO2 per kWh, taking emissions from the PV lifecycle of between 12 and

25 g equivalent of CO2 per kWh into account.

30 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs are created for each MW of solar power modules produced

and installed.

A figure for employment needs to take into account the whole PV value-chain including the

research centres plus silicon, wafers, cells, modules and other components production and

the complete installation. The figure does not include the jobs displaced from the conventional

energy sector.

A reasonable decrease is foreseen to reach around 20 FTE per installed MW in 2050.

The maintenance jobs are expressed separately in the scenarios.

It expresses how much of the input ‘Sun’ energy is converted into electrical energy for PV.

The estimated growth is between 12% and 17% by 2050 in both scenarios.This estimate takes

all technologies and not only the most advanced ones into account. It assumes a reasonable

penetration of more efficient technologies considering how fast technologies are actually

evolving as well as the arrival of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) in sunny regions.

In last 30 years, PV costs have dropped by more than 22% with each doubling of installed

capacity. In all scenarios a pessimistic reduction is considered: 18% from 2020, 16% from

2030 and 14% from 2040 to 2050.

PV markets do not have the same level of maturity in all countries. The current prices in Germany,

the most developed market, show that a sustainable market development can bring a steady

decrease of prices. This outlook considers 2.5 EUR/Wp (Paradigm Shift) and takes the average

of 2.8 EUR/Wp in 2010 for PV systems (Accelerated Scenario) which is already a reality.

7

4. SOLAR GENERATION 6HIGHLIGHTS

A future mainstream power source

By 2050, PV could generate enough solar electricityto satisfy 21% of the world electricity needs.

This represents a total of 2,260 TWh of solar PVelectricity in 2030 and up to 6,750 TWh in 2050. Thiswould come from an installed capacity of 1,845 GWin 2030 and 4,670 GW in 2050, to be comparedwith 23 GW installed in the world at the end of 2009.

2010

5,000,000

4,500,000

4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0

2020 2030 2040 2050

REFERENCE SCENARIO

ACCELERATED SCENARIO

PARADIGM SHIFT SCENARIO

FIGURE 4TOTAL OF WORLD PVINSTALLED CAPACITYUNDER THREE SCENARIOS GW

SOLARGENERATION 6HIGHLIGHTS

4

Reference Solar market growth - IEA Projection

Solar power penetration of World’s electricity in % - Reference (IEA Demand Projection)

Solar power penetration of World’s electricity in % - Energy [R]evolution (Energy Efficiency)

Accelerated Solar Market growth



Paradigm Shift Solar Market Growth



%

%

%

%

%

%

2010

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

2020

0.4

0.4

1.9

2.0

4.0

4.2

2030

0.7

0.8

4.9

5.7

7.8

9.1

2040

1.1

1.3

8.2

10.1

12.6

15.5

2050

1.4

1.8

11.3

14.0

17.1

21.2

TABLE 2AMOUNT OF SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY AS A PERCENTAGE OF WORLD POWER CONSUMPTION

source: Greenpeace/EPIA Solar Generation VI, 2010

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

24

21

18

15

12

9

6

3

0

PARADIGM SHIFT SCENARIO - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION(ENERGY EFFICIENCY)

PARADIGM SHIFT SCENARIO - REFERENCE(IEA DEMAND PROJECTION)

ACCELERATED SCENARIO - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (ENERGY EFFICIENCY)

ACCELERATED SCENARIO - REFERENCE(IEA DEMAND PROJECTION)

REFERENCE SCENARIO - ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (ENERGY EFFICIENCY)

REFERENCE SCENARIO - REFERENCE (IEA DEMAND PROJECTION)

FIGURE 3AMOUNT OF SOLAR PV ELECTRICITYAS A PERCENTAGE OF WORLD POWER CONSUMPTION%


8

An affordable and competitive source of energy

The EPIA/Greenpeace Paradigm Shift Scenarioshows that by the year 2030, PV could generateup to 2260 TWh of electricity around the world andup to 6750 TWh in 2050. This means that enoughsolar electricity would be produced to cover 21%of the world electricity needs by 2050.

PV installed capacity could reach 1845 GW in2030 and 4670 GW in 2050 in that scenario.

With this price decrease, the cost of generatingelectricity from PV is going down fast. Therefore itcan quickly enter competition with conventionalelectricity sources.

Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

The generation costs of solar PV are expected todecrease significantly by 2020 and beyond. Thefigure 5 shows the generation costs of PV electricityin 2020 and 2030. The Levelised Cost of Electricityis a way to compare various power generationsources such as a conventional coal power plantand a PV system. LCOE allocates the costs of anenergy plant across its useful life, to give an effectiveprice per each unit of energy (kWh).

The LCOE depends on the market evolution (lowand high cases) and the location of the PV system:the higher the irradiation (measured in hours of Sunirradiation), the lower the LCOE.

2010

2,500

2,800

1,439

1,843

914

1,297

782

1,067

702

935

650

857

609

800

583

763

563

734

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050



FIGURE 5 PRICE OF LARGE PVSYSTEMS EVOLUTIONEUR/KWp

-56%

-63% -77%

-74%

FIGURE 6PV LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY RANGESEUR/KWh

source: EPIA

850

1,050

1,250

1,450

1,650

1,850

2,050

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0

0.29

0.27

0.13

0.12

0.07

0.050.050.04

0.17

0.120.11

0.08

HIGH

OPERATING HOURS kWh/kWp

EUR/kWh

LOW

2010HIGHLOW

HIGHLOW

2020HIGHLOW

HIGHLOW

2030HIGHLOW

2010

2020

2030

9

5. WORLD PVDEPLOYMENT

The solar market has initially grown in developedcountries; however it is expected to shift todeveloping countries in the coming decades. After2020, North America, China and India will drive thePV market. After 2030, Africa, the Middle East andLatin America will also provide very significantcontributions. Grid connected systems willcontinue to dominate the market in developedcountries. In developing countries PV will beintegrated into the electricity network in towns andcities, while off-grid and mini-grid installations areexpected to play an increasing role in Asian andAfrican countries to power remote villages.

Solar electricity is an efficient way to get power topeople in developing countries, especially in regionswith lots of Sun. While a standard household of 2.5people in developed countries uses around 3,500kWh annually, a 100 WP system (generating around200 kWh in a country from the “Sunbelt”) indeveloping countries can cover basic electricityneeds for 3 people per household. In Europe, thegeneration of 500 TWh of electricity would meandelivering electricity to 357 million of Europeans athome. In the non-industrialised world, each 100GW of PV installed for rural electrification cangenerate electricity for 1 billion people.

FIGURE 7 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTLINKED TO PV EXPANSIONUNDER THREE SCENARIOS GW

2030PARADIGM SHIFT SCENARIO

2020

2030


2020

2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

2020

25% EUR12% PAC

18% PAC

10% AFR

5% AFR2% ME1% ME16% CHI11% CHI

1% IND2% DE2% LA

2% IND7% DE

39% EUR

21% NA

0% TE

24% TE

0% NA

2% LA

26% EUR6% PAC6% AFR9% PAC3% ME5% AFR1% ME

8% CHI14% CHI

6% IND

6% DE3% LA7% IND

6% DE4% LA

40% EUR

22% NA

2% TE

0% TE

26% NA

34% EUR4% PAC5% AFR3% ME5% PAC3% AFR2% ME5% CHI13% CHI5% IND4% DE

2% LA

6% IND

4% DE

4% LA

53% EUR

0% TE

2% TE21% NA

25% NA

EUR: EUROPE

TE: TRANSITION ECONOMIES

NA: NORTH AMERICA

LA: LATIN AMERICA

DA: DEVELOPING ASIA

IND: INDIA

CHI: CHINA

ME: MIDDLE EAST

AFR: AFRICA

PAC: PACIFIC

WORLD PVDEPLOYMENT

5


Large PV system at Munich airport. © BP Solar

10

Reference Scenario

2020

2030

Accelerated Scenario

2020

2030

Paradigm Shift Scenario

2020

2030

OECDEurope

30

38

140

280

366

631

TransitionEconomies

0

0

1

20

3

42

OECDNorthAmerica

16

37

77

285

145

460

LatinAmerica

1

3

9

47

15

66

DevelopingAsia

2

11

19

70

24

83

India

1

4

20

71

33

113

China

8

25

29

150

38

242

MiddleEast

1

4

3

30

11

47

Africa

4

15

16

62

21

85

OECDPacific

13

19

31

64

33

77

Total

77156

3451,081

6881,845

TABLE 3 PV INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION BY REGION UNTIL 2030GW

Building integratedphotovoltaics: a thin film panel in afaçade-integration.© Goldbeck solarGmbH/Sulfurcell

PV manufacturingprocess. © Oerlikon


11

PV could generate up to 3.7 million jobs in theworld by 2020 and more than 5 million by 2050.

The PV market in 2010 will reach a turn-over ofmore than 34 billion EUR (48 billion USD) in theworld; the total of yearly investments could reach160 billion EUR (225 billion USD) until 2040.

6. SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY BENEFITS TO THE WHOLE SOCIETY

Solar energy generates economic growth and employment

Reference Scenario

Annual Installation MWCost €/kWInvestment € billion/yearEmployment Job/year

Accelerated Scenario


Paradigm Shift Scenario


2008

4,9403,000

15156,965

4,9403,000

15156,965

4,9403,000

15156,965

2009

7,2622,900

21228,149

7,2622,900

21228,149

7,2622,900

21228,149

2010

7,5502,800

14237,093

12,0912,800

34374,319

13,6252,500

34417,010

2015

4,1172,351

12136,329

27,0911,855

50810,228

47,0001,499

701,372,185

2020

5,9202,080

13187,464

59,0311,340

791,690,603

135,376951129

3,781,553

2030

18,7401,703

27508,944

96,17196693

2,629,968

136,833 744100

3,546,820

2040

19,9281,487

30476,114

162,316826134

4,027,349

250,000645161

5,563,681

2050

20,1291,382

28692,655

174,796758133

4,315,343

250,000596149

5,346,320

TABLE 4INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PV

SOLAR PVELECTRICITYBENEFITS TO THEWHOLE SOCIETY

6


Fighting climate change

The damage we are doing to the climate by usingfossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) for energy andtransport is likely to destroy the livelihoods ofmillions of people, especially in the developingworld. It will also disrupt ecosystems andsignificantly speed up the extinction of speciesover the coming decades.

International climate negotiations have entered adifficult stage following the Copenhagen ClimateConference (COP 15) which failed to deliver the legallybinding international treaty. The treaty would be crucialin providing investment security and a clear directionfor the green transformation of the world economy.The Copenhagen Accord, a non-binding letter ofpolitical intentions, contains a number of provisionson mid-term targets for developed countries as wellas mitigation actions by developing countries.Furthermore, it contains provisions for financial andtechnological support for developing countriescarrying out actions to combat climate change.

However, the international community is still in searchof an internationally accepted formula on how theseprovisions are to be carried out.

We are working against the clock since the KyotoProtocol's first commitment period is about toexpire in 2012. The “star” of the UNFCCC commitsthe developed countries that have ratified it (its 165signatory countries) to reduce their greenhouseemissions by 5.2% compared to those levels of1990. Expectations and hopes to pave the way foran international binding agreement on climatechange now rest on Cancun (COP 16) and COP17. The aim is to achieve a balanced package ofmeasures and decisions based on a long-termshared vision, adaptation, mitigation, technologytransfer and financing.

12

EPIA and Greenpeace believe that it is possible toreach a binding deal before the expiration of theend of the first commitment period of the KyotoProtocol. Such an agreement will need to ensurethat industrialised countries reduce their emissionson average by at least 40% by 2020, compared totheir 1990 levels. They will need to provide afurther 140 billion USD a year in order to enabledeveloping countries to adapt to climate change,protect their forests and achieve their part of theenergy revolution. On the other hand, developingcountries need to reduce their greenhouse gasemissions by 15%-30% with regards to theirprojected growth by 2020 and raise their mitigationambitions through the Nationally AppropriateMitigation Actions (NAMAs). NAMAs is a vehicle forthe emission reduction actions in developingcountries as foreseen in the Bali Action Plan.Thereby a joint commitment from developed anddeveloping economies is needed to limit thegrowth of greenhouse gas emissions. This is to bedone by complying with legally binding emissionsreduction obligations and adopting the necessarymeasures to reduce the use of highly pollutingtechnologies whilst replacing fossil fueldependency with renewable energy sources.

Solar PV electricity reduces CO2 emissions

It is undeniable that PV can be an efficient tool toreplacing conventional power generation and tofight climate change.

Generating 1 kWh of electricity from fossil fuels emitson average about 600 grams of CO2-equivalent(including other greenhouse gases). On average, itcan be considered that each kWh produced by PVspares 600 grams of CO2-equivalent, even takingthe energy used to produce PV panels into account.

Under the Paradigm Shift Scenario for PV growthup to 542 million of tonnes of CO2 emission couldbe avoided each year from 2020 and up to 4 billiontonnes of CO2-equivalent yearly by 2050 byshifting just 20% of power generation to PV. Thecumulative total between 2010 and 2050 wouldrepresent up to 65 billion tonnes of CO2 that willnot be sent into the earth’s atmosphere.

If there is sufficient political will, we believe that it isfeasible to reach an ambitious set of decisions inCancun at the end of 2010. Even if political will iscurrently lacking, major elements could still be in place,especially those related to long term financingcommitments, forest protection and an overall targetfor emission reductions. However, we must do all wecan to keep the process moving forward, to be able tocelebrate at the Environment and Development Summitin Brazil in 2012 an agreement that will keep the world’stemperature well below 2 degrees warming.

2008

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2009

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

REFERENCE SCENARIO



FIGURE 8ANNUAL CO2 REDUCTIONMILLION TONNES CO2

Sources figures 8/9: Greenpeace/EPIA Solar Generation VI, 2010

2008

2009

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

FIGURE 9CUMULATIVE CO2REDUCTIONMILLION TONNES CO2

13

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

The Feed-in Tariff: the main driver of solar success

Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) are widely recognised as themost effective way to develop new markets for PV.World-wide, people are surprised that Germany,not a particularly sunny place, has developed sucha dynamic solar electricity market and a flourishingPV industry.

The concept is that solar electricity producers:

• have the right to feed solar electricity into thepublic grid

• receive a reasonable premium tariff pergenerated kWh reflecting the benefits of solarelectricity to compensate for the current extracosts of PV electricity

• receive the premium tariff over a fixed period of time.

Although simple, these three aspects can takesignificant efforts to be established. For manyyears power utilities did not allow solar electricityto ‘feed into” their grid and this is still the case inmany countries today.

Additional mechanisms to support Feed-in Tariffs

• A fast, simple, linear, transparent andstraightforward administrative process isrequired. It must be cost effective andproportional to the project size.

• In addition the connection of PV systems to thegrid must be simple, transparent and non-discriminatory. Free market access andlimited number of intermediaries must beensured while mechanisms against speculationwill allow a fair competition with conventionalgeneration technologies.

RECOMMENDATIONS7

Key attributes to a successful feed-in scheme:

A temporary measure – they are onlyrequired in the pre-competitive phase and are transitional.

Paid for by utilities, with costs distributedto all consumers – this protects the tarifffrom frequently changing governmentbudgets and limits consumer cost increases.

Regular decrease of the tariff, dependingof the market development, for newlyinstalled systems – to put constant pressureon the PV industry to reduce costs each year.

Used to encourage high-quality systems –tariffs reward people for generating solarelectricity, not just for installing it, this wayowners keep the output high over thesystem’s life.

Structured to encourage easier financing –as it guarantees revenue over a fixed period.

14

Access to energy in developing countries: the FTSM proposal

Investment and generation, especially indeveloping countries, will be higher than forexisting coal or gas-fired power stations in the nextfive to ten years. The Feed-in Tariff SupportMechanism (FTSM) is a concept conceived byGreenpeace to bridge this gap, with the financialsupport from developed countries.

The aim of the FTSM is to help introduce feed-inlaws in developing countries for their bankable,long-term and stable support for a local renewableenergy market. For countries with a lot of potentialrenewable capacity, it would be possible to createa new ‘no-lose’ mechanism that generatesemission reduction credits for sale to developedcountries under the Kyoto Protocol. The proceedswould then be used to offset part of the additionalcost of the Feed-in Tariff system. Other countrieswould need a more directly-funded approach topay for the additional costs to consumers that atariff would bring. The feed-in scheme would workexactly as in developed countries; only thefinancing of the scheme would differ.

For this, Greenpeace proposes a fund, createdfrom the sale of ‘carbon credits’ and taxes. The key parameters for the FTSM fund would be the following:

• The fund guarantees payment of the Feed-inTariffs over a period of 20 years, provided theproject is operated properly.

• The fund receives annual income fromemissions trading or from direct funding.

• The fund pays Feed-in Tariffs annually only onthe basis of generated electricity.

• Every FTSM project must have a professionalmaintenance company to ensure high availability.

• The grid operator must do its own monitoring andsend generation data to the FTSM fund. Datafrom the project managers and grid operators willbe compared regularly to check consistency.

Micro credits schemes for small hydro projects inBangladesh and wind farms in Denmark andGermany are good examples to see how small,community-based projects can be successfulthanks to a large public support.

Solar helps provide access to energy

According to the IEA’s report on the world’saccess to energy1, in 2008 approximately 1.5billion people, or 22% of the world’s population,85% of them is rural areas, did not have access toelectricity. Energy alone is not sufficient to alleviatepoverty. However, it is an important step in anydevelopment process. Access to electricity, forsignificant amounts of people brings the reachingof a number of Millennium Development Goals(MDG) set by the United Nations, into perspective.

There are three approaches in bringing electricityto remote areas:

• Extending the national grid. This is often adifficult choice due to its high cost.

• Providing off-grid technologies. Many PVsolutions exist (Pico PV system, classical solarhome or residential systems), which are alreadycost competitive and are well-suited forhousehold uses.

• Developing mini-grids with hybrid power.By combining renewable or non renewable-generation technologies, separate from the gridand backed-up with a local storage or generatorPV plays a tremendous role in rural electrification.

1 www.worldenergyoutlook.org/database_electricity/electricity_access_database.htm

Solar helps provideaccess to energy.© BP Solar

15

20092010

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000 0

20202030

OECDNorth America

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

20092010

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000 0

20202030

Latin America

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

1,773 MW 400 MW

442 MW484 MW

2,319 MW2,456 MW

20092010

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000 0

20202030

Africa

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

100 MW

163 MW163 MW

20092010

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000 0

20202030

OECD Europe

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

20092010

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000 0

20202030

Middle East

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

16,046 MW

150 MW

176 MW213 MW

20092010

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000 0

20202030

Transition Economies

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

5 MW

6 MW7 MW

20092010

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000 0

20202030

India

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

20092010

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000 0

20202030

China

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

134 MW373 MW

606 MW624 MW

179 MW200 MW

20092010

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000 0

20202030

OECDPacific

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

3,273 MW

5,247 MW5,609 MW

20092010

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000 0

20202030

Developing Asia

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

750 MW

775 MW800 MW

20092010

2,000,000

1,600,000

1,200,000

800,000

400,000 0

20202030

Global

TOTAL CAPACITY

MW

23,004 MW

34,986 MW36,629 MW

ACCELERATED

PARADIGM SHIFT

WORLD MAP

Global cum

ulative ca

pac

ity sho

wing the Acc

elerated

and

Parad

igm Shift sc

enarios by region

MW

European Photovoltaic Industry AssociationRenewable Energy HouseRue d’Arlon 63-671040 BrusselsBelgiumT: +32 2 4653884F: +32 2 [email protected]

Greenpeace InternationalOttho Heldringstraat 51066 AZ AmsterdamThe NetherlandsT: 31 20 7182000F: 31 20 [email protected]

SOLAR GENERATION 6FULL REPORT 2010

Out soonThe full Solar Generation report will be published by the end of 2010.It will be available here for download:www.epia.org/solargeneration

Text edited by: EPIA: Monika Antal, Giorgia Concas, Eleni Despotou, Adel El Gammal, Daniel Fraile Montoro, Marie Latour, Paula Llamas, Sophie Lenoir Gaëtan Masson,Pieterjan Vanbuggenhout. Greenpeace: Sven Teske. External contributions: Simon Rolland (Alliance for Rural Electrification), Rebecca Short. Design by: Onehemisphere,Sweden. Photo credits: BP Solar, Concentrix, Isofotón, Sulfurcell, First Solar, Goldbeck Solar GmbH, Oerlikon.

EPIA

With over 220 Members drawn from across the entiresolar photovoltaic sector, the European PhotovoltaicIndustry Association is the world’s largest photovoltaicindustry association. EPIA Members are presentthroughout the whole value-chain: from silicon, cells andmodule production to systems development and PVelectricity generation as well as marketing and sales.EPIA’s mission is to deliver a distinct and valuable servicedriven from the strength of a single photovoltaic voice.

Greenpeace

Greenpeace is a global organisation that uses non-violentdirect action to tackle the most crucial threats to our planet’sbiodiversity and environment. Greenpeace is a non-profitorganisation, present in 40 countries across Europe, theAmericas, Asia and the Pacific. It speaks for 2.8 millionsupporters worldwide and inspires many millions more totake action every day. To maintain its independence,Greenpeace does not accept donations from governmentsor corporations but relies on contributions from individualsupporters and foundation grants.

Greenpeace has been campaigning againstenvironmental degradation since 1971 when a small boatof volunteers and journalists sailed into Amchitka, an areanorth of Alaska, where the US Government wasconducting underground nuclear tests. This tradition of‘bearing witness’ in a non-violent manner continues todayand ships are an important part of all its campaign work.

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