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Executive Summary

UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-1

1. Introduction As a culmination of the preceding five Interim Reports, the Final Report, is being submitted as the last of the Consultant’s reporting obligations under the contract between TAHAL Consulting Engineers Ltd. and the Government of Uganda (GOU), represented by the Ministry of Works, Housing and Communications (MOWHC). According to this contract, the Consultant is to prepare a National Transport Master, including a Transport Plan for the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). The work was performed in accordance with the Terms of Reference (TOR) incorporated in the contract signed on December 6, 2002. This Executive Summary is aimed at presenting the results and recommendations of the Consultant. It does not delve into details or methodology, and it strives to be precise and clear. It should be noted that the Master Planning is not a “one shot” operation and the current recommendations should be continuously re-evaluated by the Ministry and the GKMA TMPO on a regular basis by creating, supporting and financing the planning teams. The study analyses the requirements in roads and highways, ferry services, air transport and rail. All of these fall under the umbrella of the National Transport System, in addition to proposing GKMA boundaries, a long term vision and a priority list of proposed projects and actions.

1.1 Background Although the economy of Uganda has improved considerably in recent years, it is still in the low range for a developing country. The national per capita GDP is about US$ 200 per year. The unrest in the north of the country is causing insecurity, contributing to the poor economic performance of the affected regions. The road system has deteriorated in the past decade, resulting barriers for markets, higher transport costs and lower profitability of crops and products. The railway network, which once covered about 1,500 km, has been reduced to a bare minimum of about 240 km, and transports mostly export and import goods between Kampala and the Kenyan port of Mombasa. Sea and river transportation, composed mostly of ferry boats serving as "bridges" across rivers, has also deteriorated, causing increased delays. Domestic air transport is very limited. A reasonable international air transport service, which uses the rehabilitated airport and the new terminal at Entebbe, is in existence. Concerning urban transport, most of the urban areas in the country are small; the exception is the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA), containing about 2.3 million people at present and expected to grow to about 3.6 million in the next 15 years. The present level of service of the transport system in the GKMA is very low and its improvement will call for drastic changes in the public

Executive Summary


transport system, the road system, traffic management, and definition of the metropolitan area and its organization. A change in the type, direction and level of future investments is needed. In view of the present deficiencies in the transport systems, the Transport Master Plan will serve as the necessary tool to translate policy into action.

1.2 Study Objectives The Terms of Reference for this study specify the overall objective of the National Transport Master Plan (NTMP), as follows: “The overall objective of the National Transport Master Plan, including the Transport Master Plan for the greater Kampala Metropolitan Area, is to enable the Government to decide future development and financing of the transport sector infrastructure based on medium to long-term projections of international, regional and domestic transport demand”. Preparation of the master plans was based on comprehensive analyses performed by the Consultant, including the execution and analysis of numerous field studies, while also making reference to reports and work prepared by other consultants contracted by GOU in previous years. Preparation of the Transport Master Plan benefited from a series of workshops held with stakeholders, government officials, the private sector and parliament members. The analysis of future transport requirements was based on the economic and demographic scenarios developed during the study which reflect GOU policies. Transport models were constructed to determine the relationship between the economic/demographic parameters and trip generation, and this was an important step in the evaluation process and in the prioritization of investments. The Final Report is aimed at presenting a concise description of the country's transport system and its deficiencies, and in recommending actions for each transport sub-sector, including development priorities and an investment program. A component of the work during preparation of the National Transport Master Plan was the Master Plan for Greater Kampala. The report summarizes the main points of the study, including the needs, availability of funds, and recommendations for improvement. Detailed elements of the work are described in the three main reports, namely, Interim Report No. 3 (National Transport Master Plan), Interim Report No. 4 (GKMA Transport Master Plan) and Interim Report No. 5 (Proposed Institutional Arrangements). In addition, the Inception Report, and Interim Reports 1 and 2 (Analysis of Uganda’s Transport Sector Strategy and Methodology, respectively) are attached in electronic form on a CD (see back cover of this report).

Executive Summary


Please note that for ease in identifying figures, graphs, charts and tables, the Consultant has chosen to maintain the labels assigned in the Final and Interim Reports. It should be noted that this Final Report has been amended based on the comments made by MoWHC and various other agencies. It is in its final form.

1.3 The Transport Sector Investment Plan The following table (Table ES-1/F-2, overleaf) indicates the investment by period required in the transport sector for the only the major divisions and for two time periods; a) the short immediate range between 2004-05 and 2007-09, which necessitates immediate decisions and b) during the second period between 2004-05 and 2018-19. The investment does not include two elements; a) renovation of the bus fleet, since it is assumed that the private sector will implement this, and b) the Ugandan Railways once the system is privatized. A negligible amount of capital is needed for these latter elements, and it is assumed that some injection of capital by the Government will be needed prior to privatization. The investment plan for the National Transport Master Plan is depicted in Figure ES-1/ F-2 (overleaf). As can be seen, the committed projects are within the “envelope” prepared by the Ugandan MoF. For additional details, the Client is referred to Section C and D of this Report, and to IR3 and IR4. The following sections provide a more detailed report for each sector.

1.4 Transport Master Plan A transport master plan is a tool aimed at achieving basically two objectives: (i) updating an existing transport/development policy or assisting in the preparation of such a policy in case it does not exist; and (ii) evaluating the needs and preparing a list of annual investments in the relevant transport sector/sub-sector, as well as a list of traffic management actions needed, in accordance with the Government’s transport policy and the availability of funding. The TOR for the present study states that "the transport master plan is required to translate the broad policy and strategy aspirations into time bound measurable activities". Once a draft master plan exists, its overall objective is to enable the government to decide on future development and financing of the transport sector infrastructure based on projections of demand, and to develop a suitable institutional structure for implementation and monitoring. Thus the vision of the National Transport Master Plan for Uganda’s transport system is that the country should have greatly improved roads at national, district and community levels for both public and private transport. In addition, shipping services, ferries and air connections, both international and to outlying areas of

Executive Summary


the country, should be considerably strengthened. Strengthening of rail services might also be an outcome of privatization. Investment (including maintenance expenditure) in a wide range of transport facilities will respond to economic growth, rising living standards, an increased rate of motorization and the consequent higher demand for transportation facilities. In this plan, Uganda’s population is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.7% per annum (refer to Section B in this chapter), from 25.1 million to 37.2 million over the 15-year planning horizon, while the GDP is forecast to grow at an average of 6.7% per annum, from USh 9,480 billion to USh 24,955 billion (1997/98 prices) The GDP per capita is forecast to grow at an average of 4.1% per annum, from USh 377,000 to USh 671,000 (1997/98 prices). At the same time transportation investments will make a major contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth by: • Reducing travel times and costs for persons and goods. • Improving reliability, levels of service and efficiency. • Enhancing access of producers to local and international markets and inputs. • Improving the population's access to social and public services. • Improving transportation for foreign business and holiday visitors to and

within Uganda. • Reducing accidents and their derived human and economic costs. Investment in the road sector, which will account for the largest share of the transport sector’s needs, will be met to a large extent from the Government budget and donor contributions. Thus considerable attention is paid to an appropriate "budget envelope" for the roads and works sector. This also applies to ferry services, which have particular social impacts and which serve to all intents and purposes as extensions of roads. The budget envelope is the total sum of funds available during the plan period (15 years) for the transport sector, i.e. it is based on a coherent and consistent set of macro-economic variables and assumptions, including recurrent and development budgets, Government revenues and donor funds (refer to Table ES-1/ F-2; Chapter F and pg. 3.1). The railways, waterways and ports, and civil aviation sectors are somewhat different since privatization or commercialization either exist or are a potential alternative. Thus, there are possibilities of extra-budgetary funding of investment. In some cases, both types of funding are required, including writing off Government loans to privatized or commercialized entities. Investments in these sectors may therefore also have implications for resource envelopes, or for other

acro-economic issues. m According to the plan, the transport sector should concentrate on the development and maintenance of roads, which are considered to be the backbone of the economy and have been long neglected.

1 Figures available from the MoF

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As regards the other sectors, the plan adopts previously existing proposals for the development of Entebbe International Airport and proposes development of the domestic air network, including a municipal airport in Kampala, totalling US$ 123 million over 15 years. This takes into account the size of the country, travel distances and times, and the need to support economic activities and tourism. In addition, investments are proposed in the ports. Investments in the railways and in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area have yet to be determined.

2. Demography and Economy Table ES-2 depicts the gross domestic product (GDP) for Uganda and the economic forecast.

Table ES-2– Estimated Ugandan GDP Per Capita in US$ (2003-2018)

Year 2003 2008 2013 2018 GDP per Capita 200 220 270 340

Growth rate per year 3.0 4.2 4.5

Residential (Figures ES-2a/ B-8a and ES-2b/ B-8b) and employment (Figures ES-3a/ B-9a and ES-3b/ B-9b) representations are attached (overleaf).

2.1 National Population and Economic Forecasts The population of Uganda in September 2002 was provisionally enumerated at 24.7 million, vs. that of January 1991, which was 16.7 million. The population grew rapidly, at an average annual rate of 3.3%. As far as future trends are concerned, it was indicated by UBOS that this rate could be adjusted downwards. In 1991 total households numbered 3.4 million, with an average household size of 4.8. In 2002 there were an estimated 5.1 million households with a slight fall in average household size to 4.7. The proportion of rural population remained very high in 2002, accounting for 88% of the total population, down from 89% in 1991. The rural population grew at an estimated 3.2% per year, vs. 3.9% for the urban population. These trends indicate considerable rural to urban migration, because the fertility rates of the urban population are much lower than those of the rural population (see Table ES-3).

Executive Summary

Table ES-3 -Forecast of all National & GKMA Population For The Years 2003-2018

GKMA National

Population 1991 1,211,481 16,671,705 Population 2002 2,032,485 24,324,000 Growth rate 1991-2002 4.5% 3.3% Population base year 2003 2,119,000 25,119,000 Population 2008 2,592,000 29,036,000 Growth rate 2003-2008 4.1% 2.9% Population 2013 3,102,000 33,087,000 Growth rate 2008-2013 3.7% 2.6% Population 2018 3,648,000 37,219,000 Growth rate 2013-2018 3.3% 2.4% Percent Increase 2003-2018 72.1% 48.2%

As detailed information is not yet available from the 2002 census, the following assumptions were made in order to derive population and household forecasts for the base year of 2003 and the five-year periods ending 2008, 2013 and 2018: • The rate of total population growth in each five-year period will fall by 10%

(UBOS projected a steeper decline in growth rates based on the 1991 census and its above-mentioned assumptions).

• The proportion of rural population will decrease at a rate of 0.10-0.14% per annum (UBOS projected a steeper decrease in the proportion of the rural population).

Thus, the total population is forecasted to grow at 2.9% pa during the period 2003-2008 to US$ 29 million, at 2.6% during 2008-2013 to US$ 33 million, and at 2.4% pa during 2013-2018 to US$ 37 million (see Figures ES-4/ B-1 and ES-5/ B-2).

Figure ES-4 (B-1)

2002 2003 2008 2013 20180

10

20

30

40

Mill

ions

Total PopulationRural PopulationUrban Population

NTMP POPULATION PROJECTIONS


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Figure ES-5 (B-2)

2003-08 2008-13 2013-180.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

Total PopulationRural PopulationUrban Population

NTMP POPULATION GROWTH RATES The total GKMA population is expected to increase by about 470,000 (22%) in the coming five years and by about 1,530,000 (72%) over the 15-year planning horizon.

2.1.1 Economic Growth During the first half of the last decade, Uganda enjoyed very high real growth rates, exceeding 10% in some years. The rates fell in the second half of the decade, but still remained at 5% or more. Between the years 1991 and 2002 (being the two census years) monetary GDP grew at an average rate of 7.5%, while non-monetary GDP (subsistence agriculture, etc.) grew at a rate of 3.5%, with total GDP growing at 6.5% (see Figure ES-6/ B-4). During this time, the share of monetary GDP increased from 70.7% to 78.6% (see Figure ES-7/ B-5).

Figure ES-6 (B-4) 1991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

2002

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

% G

row

th o

n P

revi

ous

Yea

r

Monetary GDP

Non Monetary GDP

Total GDP

Growth Rate of GDP


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Figure ES-7 (B-5)

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

SH

AR

E O

F G

DP

Agriculture

Community services

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Transport & Communication

CHANGE IN SHARE OF MONETARY GDP BY MAJOR SECTOR

2.1.2 Forecasts of Growth in GDP Forecasts of GDP took into account the Long Term Expenditure Framework (LTEF) of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) and additional information from the Bank of Uganda and the Kampala office of the World Bank. Further information on GDP and foreign trade forecasts was made available by the Bank of Uganda (BoU). Total GDP is forecast to grow by 6% pa during the period 2003-2008, and by 7% pa thereafter.2

Sectoral GDP was forecast by extrapolating the trends in the shares of the sectors in total GDP between 1991 and 2002. This includes the share of non-monetary GDP. Agriculture and community services are thus projected to grow relatively slowly, between 5.1 and 7.0% pa, while other sectors are forecast to grow between 7.1 and 9.6% pa.


2.1.3 Forecasts of per Capita GDP The forecasts of population and the forecasts of total GDP were used to derive forecasts of per capita GDP. Real per capita GDP is forecast to grow by 3.0%, 4.2% and 4.5% pa in the successive five-year periods starting 2003 (see Figure ES-8/ B-6 and Table ES-2). These are high growth rates, which will impact significantly on the demand for transport. The real per capita GDP will grow from about US$ 200 pa to about US$ 340 pa.

2 Except for the year 2000, the total GDP annual growth rate has been more than 6% for the

past five years. Therefore the projection of 6% for 2004-2008 and 7% thereafter, as made by HFPED (LTEF) and BoU, and used here, is realistic.

Executive Summary

Figure ES-8 (B-6)

2003 2008 2013 2018

Population Growth Rate % p.a. Per Capita GDP '000 Sh 97/98Prices

GKMA POPULATION GROWTH AND GDP PER CAPITA

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Per C

apita

GD

P '0

00 S

h 97

/98

Pric

es

2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%

Popu

latio

n G

row

th R

ate

% p

.a.

3. Uganda National Transport System Interim Report No. 3 details the transport sector of Uganda, including the sub-sectors: roads, railways, waterways and civil aviation. Each sub-sector was analyzed and a development plan and investment plan prepared for it. By and large, the development program was based on the transport sector strategy3 and on future growth predictions for the country in general, and for each region in particular. The development program for each transport sub-sector was also based on previous analyses and documents prepared by various Government agencies and consultants’ reports. Uganda’s transport needs are predominantly served by the road system and this will remain so in the foreseeable future. The road system receives and will continue to receive the largest share of the budget. Nevertheless, the rail, water transport and air sectors also have vital roles to play in the national transport system. In many cases there are no efficient or cost-effective alternatives to the services provided by the non-road sectors, especially given the impetus of globalization and international trade. Thus the vision of the National Transport Master Plan for Uganda’s transport system is that the country will have greatly improved roads at national, district and community levels for both public and private transport. In addition, shipping services, ferries and air connections, both international and to outlying areas of


3 See Transport Sector Strategy, Parkman Report, June 2000.

Executive Summary


the country, will be considerably strengthened. Strengthening of rail services might also be an outcome of privatization. Investment (including maintenance expenditure) in a wide range of transport facilities will respond to economic growth, rising living standards, an increased rate of motorization and the consequent higher demand for transportation facilities. In this plan Uganda’s population is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.7% per annum, from 25.1 million to 37.2 million over the 15-year planning horizon, while GDP is forecast to grow at an average of 6.7% per annum, from USh 9,480 billion to USh 24,955 billion (1997/98 prices). GDP per capita is forecast to grow at an average of 4.1% per annum, from USh 377,000 to USh 671,000 (1997/98 prices). At the same time transportation investments will make a major contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth by: • Reducing travel times and costs for persons and goods. • Improving reliability, levels of service and efficiency. • Enhancing access of producers to local and international markets and inputs. • Improving the population's access to social and public services. • Improving transportation for foreign business and holiday visitors to and

within Uganda. • Reducing accidents and their derived human and economic costs. As regards the other sectors, the plan adopts previously existing proposals for the development of Entebbe International Airport and proposes development of the domestic air network, including a municipal airport in Kampala, totalling US$ 123 million over 15 years. This takes into account the size of the country, travel distances and times, and the need to support economic activities and tourism. In addition, investments are proposed in the ports. Investments in the railways and in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area have yet to be determined.

3.1 ummary of Investments in the National Transport System S The proposed investment in the national transport sub-sector (not including GKMA) is summarized in Table ES-4 (C-11) [from Chapter C, pg C-50]. The Investment Plan incorporates investments for all transport sub-sectors, including those proposed by other consultants.

Executive Summary

TABLE C-11: INVESTMENT PLAN (NOT INCLUDING GKMA)

Category

Sub-Category

Total US$ millions 2004/05 –2018/19

Committed road projects1

Ongoing – upgrade Ongoing – reconstruction, rehabilitation, improvement Sub-total

149.9

259.5 409.4

Proposed investments in roads and ferries2

National roads – new construction District roads Urban roads Community roads Black spot elimination Special projects Ferries National roads – maintenance Sub-total

674.2 481.4 156.7 69.0 25.5

8.6 79.5

459.0 1,953.80

Justified investments in ports, air sector, rail

All Investments

EIA Kampala Municipal Airport Category 2 Airports (6) Category 3 Airfields (6)

Ports

Rail

Sub-total

Total

84.03 8.0

38.64 4.45

13.5

To be determined

148.60 2,511.70

Budget envelope Roads and works

US$ budget in constant terms (2003/04) available for transport investment @ 92.5%

3,575.10 3,307.00

Budget envelope less committed projects and road and ferry investment

943.80

Budget envelope less committed projects and road and ferry, port and air sector investment (rail still to be determined)

795.20

1 Includes donor funds 2 No donor funds at this stage 3 It should be noted that the total investment in EIA is US$ 93.1 million up to 2022. This table

includes the investment up to 2018 only. 4 Part possibly funded from private sources 5 Ibid


Executive Summary


3.2 Road Transport Figure ES-9/ C-1 depicts the current, ongoing projects and projected 15-year national road network. The dotted red lines represent future strategic roads. Figure ES-10/ C-2 presents the road surface types for all major roads within Uganda. Both figures are located overleaf. Table ES-5/K-5 shows the list of road upgrading projects ranked according to their Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR). The following further analyses were performed in order to ensure the robustness of the project implementation program: • Each route was examined to ensure that successive upgrading of sections is

logical in terms of the priority ranking. This ensures that routes that consist of more than two individually evaluated sections, each with its own priority, follow a logical implementation staging order from one end to the other, even though they may not be constructed one immediately after the other according to their implementation priority.

• The B/C ratio of each project was calculated to evaluate possible anomalies in the EIRR results. In cases where anomalies were encountered, the cash flow series were examined to ensure that there is a good explanation for the observed discrepancy.

• A sensitivity test was performed on all the links in the final project list. This test assumed a 15% higher construction cost than anticipated, 15% lower benefits in the base year and a 50% reduction in the growth in benefits over the evaluation period.

Executive Summary


TABLE ES 5(K-5) Project Implementation Programme –

List P Easy Ref DESCRIPTION Surface Upgrading Length IRR Cost Benefits B/C Ratio Sensitivity 1 104 Ibanda-Kamwenge Unpaved Pave 44.1 60.4 2.357 88.713 37.6 24.7 2 108 Mubende-Kakumiro Unpaved Pave 30.0 59.3 0.550 39.535 71.9 47.1 3 195 Mukono-Kyetume Unpaved Pave 4.0 59.0 0.019 5.585 293.9 192.7 4 1 Nakawa-Bweyogerere Paved Dual 4.9 47.9 4.024 34.192 8.5 5.6 5 94 Kabale-Kisoro Unpaved Pave 80.0 46.0 4.604 90.041 19.6 12.8 6 192 Kibuye-Najja Paved Dual 3.2 39.1 1.540 12.746 8.3 5.4 7 99 Nebbi-Goli Customs Unpaved Pave 16.0 38.1 2.390 12.173 5.1 3.3 8 126 Mpigi-Kanoni Unpaved Pave 59.0 35.8 4.485 35.233 7.9 5.1 9 204 Gayaza-Kiwenda Unpaved Pave 14.2 35.7 1.054 8.702 8.3 5.4

10 207 Bulamagi-Nyenga Rwy Stn Unpaved Pave 5.2 35.0 0.509 3.479 6.8 4.5 11 193 Nasambya Jct-Gaba Paved Dual 9.0 34.4 6.295 24.775 3.9 2.6 12 253 Kanoni-Mityana Unpaved Pave 39.0 33.5 4.043 19.568 4.8 3.2

13 300 Bweyogerere-Silver Springs Paved Dual 7.3 33.5 3.530 27.891 7.9 5.2

14 189 Kawuku-Bwerenga Unpaved Pave 7.2 32.6 0.826 3.953 4.8 3.1 15 223 Zirobwe-Wobulenzi Unpaved Pave 24.0 32.2 1.868 11.862 6.4 4.2 16 162 Katete-Nsongezi Unpaved Pave 49.0 30.9 5.050 24.841 4.9 3.2 17 109 Kakumiro-Kibaale Brd Unpaved Pave 77.2 30.5 8.200 37.842 4.6 3.0 18 282 Buhimba-Kibaale Brd Unpaved Pave 16.0 30.0 1.926 7.874 4.1 2.7 19 105 Fort Portal-Kamwenge Unpaved Pave 72.0 29.9 7.867 37.083 4.7 3.1 20 206 Lugazi-Njeru Unpaved Pave 31.6 29.2 3.276 14.695 4.5 2.9 21 86 Hoima-Buhimba Unpaved Pave 11.0 27.1 0.695 3.868 5.6 3.6 22 280 Atiak-Ayugi River Unpaved Pave 14.0 27.1 0.678 4.270 6.3 4.1 23 176 Fort Portal-Kijura Unpaved Pave 37.0 26.2 4.325 14.199 3.3 2.2 24 111 Villa Maria-Sembabule Unpaved Pave 38.0 25.0 5.430 14.867 2.7 1.8

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25 167 Mityana-Busunju Unpaved Pave 30.0 23.8 3.820 10.287 2.7 1.8 26 106 Fort Portal-Karugutu Unpaved Pave 27.0 23.7 3.439 9.572 2.8 1.8 27 136 Laropi-Ayugi River Unpaved Pave 53.0 23.6 5.850 16.531 2.8 1.9 28 61 Manibe-Koboko Unpaved Pave 50.0 20.7 6.135 13.171 2.1 1.4 29 43 Kalerwe Rbt-Kawempe Paved Dual 4.3 20.2 4.167 7.255 1.7 1.1 30 319 Adwilla-Agwata Unpaved Pave 24.3 20.0 3.319 6.545 2.0 1.3 31 144 Bugolobi-Portbell Paved Dual 4.9 19.9 3.420 5.784 1.7 1.1 32 135 Moyo-Laropi Unpaved Pave 26.0 18.9 3.407 6.284 1.8 1.2 33 88 Masindi-Kigumba Unpaved Pave 39.0 18.5 3.217 6.996 2.2 1.4 34 95 Kisoro-Bunagana Unpaved Pave 12.8 17.9 1.805 3.065 1.7 1.1

35 127 Kanoni-Maddu Unpaved Pave 45.0 17.4 4.776 8.514 1.8 1.2 36 129 Busia-Majjanji Unpaved Pave 27.0 17.1 3.479 5.628 1.6 1.1 37 154 Masindi-Biso Unpaved Pave 53.0 16.9 6.969 11.028 1.6 1.0 38 159 Kazo-Ibanda Unpaved Pave 35.0 16.1 5.723 8.064 1.4 0.9 39 112 Nkonge-Lusalira Unpaved Pave 39.0 15.4 6.204 8.224 1.3 0.9 40 205 Kiwenda-Zirobwe Unpaved Pave 17.5 15.4 2.594 3.554 1.4 0.9 41 351 Munamba-Lwakhakha Unpaved Pave 4.5 15.4 0.738 0.970 1.3 0.9 42 224 Kasana-Kikyusa-Zirobwe Unpaved Pave 38.5 15.3 5.185 7.096 1.4 0.9 43 359 Busumbu-Magale Unpaved Pave 17.0 15.3 2.914 3.739 1.3 0.8 44 358 Magodes-Busumbu Unpaved Pave 13.0 15.2 2.228 2.852 1.3 0.8 45 141/2 Kakumiro-Kagadi Unpaved Pave 77.0 15.0 10.462 14.027 1.3 0.9 46 2 Bweyogerere-Mukono Paved Dual 10.8 14.2 6.711 8.218 1.2 0.8 47 150 Masaka-Bukakata Unpaved Pave 36.0 14.1 6.159 7.292 1.2 0.8 48 259 Maddu-Nabakazi River Unpaved Pave 44.0 13.7 6.789 7.918 1.2 0.8 49 240 Namagumba-Budadiri Unpaved Pave 19.9 13.1 3.323 3.661 1.1 0.7 50 13 Kibuye-Busega Paved Dual 6.5 12.8 3.195 3.582 1.1 0.7 51 71 Soroti-Dokolo Unpaved Pave 65.0 11.9 7.054 6.989 1.0 0.6 52 118 Akia-Aloi Unpaved Pave 24.5 11.9 3.687 3.663 1.0 0.7 53 321 Aloi-Acan Pi Unpaved Pave 65.4 11.9 8.761 8.689 1.0 0.7 54 53/4 Gulu-Atiak Unpaved Pave 71.0 11.7 0.575 0.557 1.0 0.6

Executive Summary


55 158 Nyakaita-Kazo Unpaved Pave 73.0 11.5 12.492 11.902 1.0 0.6 56 265 Soroti-Brooks Cnr Unpaved Pave 26.0 11.4 4.243 4.017 0.9 0.6 57 289 Musita-Mayuge Unpaved Pave 17.3 10 2.477 2.024 0.8 0.5 58 312 Abim-Acan Pi Unpaved Pave 29.0 9.8 4.613 3.761 0.8 0.5 59 72 Agwata-Dokolo Unpaved Pave 27.0 9.4 3.887 2.969 0.8 0.5 60 235 Kamonkoli-Pallisa Unpaved Pave 45.0 9.2 7.941 6.277 0.8 0.5 61 191 Kabalagala-Tank Hill Paved Dual 2.7 8.8 1.770 1.284 0.7 0.5 62 25 Zana-Entebbe Paved Dual 26.3 7.9 18.275 14.070 0.8 0.5

62 TOTAL 1,920 267.344 834.046

Executive Summary

Based on the economic evaluation results, the following implementation scenarios are shown: • DESIRED: All projects with an EIRR of more than 8% are included in the

list. The reason for adopting an 8% cut-off rate instead of the norm of 12% is to take into account possible benefits of non-motorized traffic and other exogenous benefits. This would require a very detailed level of analysis that could not be performed at a strategic level such as this.

• CONSTRAINED: This includes all projects that are economically viable with a B/C ratio ≥ 1, based on a 12% discount rate.

• MINIMUM: This includes projects that would be economically viable (B/C ratio ≥ 1 at a discount rate of 12%) when subjected to the sensitivity test.

The road investment plan is presented in Table ES-6/ C-9.

Table ES-6 (C-9): Road Investment Plan versus Allocation

Long Term Current Needs Allocation

National Roads - Upgrading 44.9 20.0 24.9 Only "New" economically viable projects. No Strategic or Committed ProjectsNational Roads - Maintenance 31.0 31.0 0.0 Includes Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Overlay, Regravelling and Routine MaintenanDistrict Roads 33.0 22.5 10.5Urban Roads 11.1 5.0 6.1 Outside GKMACommunity Roads 4.6 0.2 4.4 Capital and MaintenanceBlack Spot Elimination 5.1 0.0 5.1 Over 5 YearsSpecial Projects 2.9 0.0 2.9 Over 3 Years

TOTAL 132.6 78.7 53.9

Note: Donors not included

COMMENT ShortfallCATEGORY Average per Year

Implementation of the recommended DESIRED scenario will require an average annual expenditure of US$ 45 million over 15 years, compared to the current allocation of US$ 20, excluding donor funds, i.e. a shortfall of US$ 25 million per annum. Under this scenario, maintenance needs for national roads could be maintained at the current level of US$ 31 million per annum on average. District roads would require an average of US$ 33 per annum – a shortfall of US$ 10.5 million per annum; urban roads (excluding GKMA) would require US$ 11 million per annum – a shortfall of US$ 6 million; community roads would require US$ 4.6 million – a shortfall of US$ 4.2. In addition, black spot elimination would require US$ 5 million over 5 years and the special project ferries, diverting traffic from part of the national road network would require US$ 3 million over three years. The following aspects pertaining to the funding of roads should be highlighted: • The table provides an average annual expenditure of road development and

maintenance for the 15-year analysis period. Actual budget allocations may


Executive Summary


differ from year to year, reflecting the state of the economy and the economic growth cycles of specific years. It should however be ensured that shortfalls are recovered in subsequent years. Care should also be taken to see that an accumulated shortfall does not become unmanageable to the extent that it cannot be recovered in subsequent years.

• The current allocation would only fund about 50% of the upgrading and maintenance needs. This under-funding is largely caused by the fact that GoU is unwilling or unable to provide matching finance for donor contributions.

• The most acute level of under-funding in nominal terms is for development (upgrading) of the National Road Network. Even if the minimum level of upgrading is to be achieved, the average annual funding shortfall will still be US$ 11.6 million per year at current funding levels. For the recommended DESIRED scenario the shortfall will be US$ 25 million per annum.

• Current levels of maintenance funding represent only 80% of the current maintenance needs for the National Road Network. At first glance this level of under-funding may seem less severe than that of other categories. However, it should be taken into account that, firstly, under-funding of the National Road Network would increase the average annual maintenance undertaken. A maintenance backlog of US$ 90 million will have accumulated by the end of the 15-year planning horizon. Secondly, the amount allocated towards maintenance of the National Road Network has decreased over the past three years, which means that the general trend of the past few years also needs to be reversed. On the other hand, if the recommended DESIRED scenario is implemented maintenance requirements would fall to an annual average of US$ 31 million and there would be no shortfall.

• Community Access Roads, which at current allocation levels would receive less than 6% of their funding needs, would experience the most severe under-funding in relative terms. As is the case with national gravel roads, the upgrading of Community Access Roads could play an integral part in poverty eradication policies and programs.

• No funds are currently allocated towards the 5-year black spot elimination program or to the special project ferries diverting traffic from part of the National Road Network.

3.3 Rail Transport

3.3.1 Present Status Uganda Railway System (URC) presently carries about 1 million tonnes annually on the mainline and Port Bell routes and earns revenues that are slightly below operating expenses. There is no contribution to capital or debt at the present level of operation. Commercialization of the entire operation in 1992 led to: • Temporary suspension of service on the Western, Northern, and Busoga lines. • Considerable downsizing of URC employment (by 1,200 jobs in 1992 and a

further 200 in 1999).

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Given the debt burden and continuing operating losses, there is little likelihood of achieving long term financial viability without sizeable government subsidies and/or major restructuring of the institution. A map showing the existing lines and the line in operation is given in Figure ES-11/ C-6 (overleaf).

3.3.2 Key Recommendations Need • The Government of Uganda should expedite joint concessioning between

URC and KRC. • All existing URC-owned lands and corridors should be preserved for future

railway or other transportation purposes. • Steps should be taken to restrict further encroachment of non-railway related

activities on URC-owned lands and an implementation program for eliminating existing encroachments on URC property or establishing exclusions in certain circumstances should be undertaken as soon as possible.

Joint Concessioning • The Governments of Uganda and Kenya should take steps to include the Port

Authority of Mombasa in some way as a participant within the joint concession agreement.

• Final agreements should not preclude extension to other partners, notably Tanzania Railway.

• An examination of the feasibility and costs of establishing and equipping a duty-free zone within the Port of Mombasa for Uganda-bound traffic should be undertaken.

• Fallback positions should be developed by URC in the event that all anticipated terms and conditions are not incorporated in the bid submissions.

Operations • URC should take advantage of funds made available by the EU (€ 10 million)

for track rehabilitation and by the KfW for freight car maintenance (DM 7.9 million) to continue with track improvements and acquire higher-powered locomotives that are consistent with the anticipated operations of the new concessionaire.

• The Government of Uganda should request the Government of Kenya to eliminate customs clearance requirements for international goods shipped in bond to/from Uganda, in accordance with international treaties.

• The Government of Uganda should ensure that customs facilities are open during all hours of railway operations.

• The requirement for customs clearance for export cargo should be eliminated altogether.

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Commuter Rail • An assessment of the condition and practical feasibility and costs of

rehabilitation of existing coaches to meet commuter service specifications should be undertaken.

• Existing demographic data should be summarized to show cumulative catchment populations within a radius of one and two kilometres from logical station sites as potential service is extended outward from the existing central railway station.

• Preliminary cost estimates should be prepared for the reintroduction of usable track structure in the western corridor, as well as for the construction of an all-weather road for bus rapid transit, based on a thorough inspection of the existing right-of-way and structures.

3.4 Air Transport

The National Master Plan

The plan includes EIA and a municipal airfield for Kampala as two distinct categories in their own right (Refer to Figure ES-12/ C-7 for orientation; overleaf). The plan also takes into account the 60 licensed upcountry airfields, 19 of which are designated as belonging to the national airfield network.

Two more airfields are designated as part of the network in accordance with the Government resolution (Ntungamo new airfield, and the existing Yumbe airfield). Eight additional district capitals will be earmarked for future development of optional domestic airfields should this be justified by demand. The national airfield network is therefore comprised of 29 airfields, 20 of which are existing and eight of them optional. The airport classification scheme chosen for this plan is basically that of the USA's Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), adjusted to suit the special case of Uganda.

• First Category - Air Carrier/Cargo (AC/C) airport for long-haul routes. • Second Category - Transport/Corporate (T/C) airports intended to serve

regional entry-exit point to the country with a future potential for upgrading to AC/C for short-haul routes.

• Third Category - General Utility (G/U) airfields to serve small passenger aircraft.

The total Proposed Investment Plan for national air transport is US$ 152,415,000, to be implemented in three phases over the next 18 years (see Table ES-7/ C-10). The plan will meet the demand requirement of Uganda for the next 25 years in accordance with the growth forecasts.

Executive Summary


Table ES-7 (C-10): Total Investment Plan for National Airports, 2004-

2022

Sector Total Phase One Phase Two Phase Three 2004-06 2007-12 2013-22

Entebbe International Airport

93,100,000 42,700,000 27,700,000 22,700,000

Transport/Corporate (T/C)

46,125,000 18,875,000 8,250,000 19,000,000

General/Utility (G/U) 5,190,000 1,410,000 1,920,000 1,860,000 Kampala Metropolitan Airport

8,000,000 5,000,000 3,000,000 0

Total 152,415,000 67,985,000 40,870,000 43,560,000

Refer to Figure ES-13/ C-8 for a depiction of the Kampala municipal airfields.

3.5 Ports and Waterways The ports and waterways sector encompass two different elements, one being the ports on Lake Victoria and the other the ferries, which are in a way an extensions of the road network. Table ES-8/ M-5 (from IR3) outlines the capital investment programme for ports and landing sites (inserted overleaf). Uganda Railway Corporation (URC) currently operates three wagon ferries on Lake Victoria (the ferries were acquired in 1983-84), linking Port Bell to Kisumu (Kenya) and Mwanza (Tanzania). These are at present the only water transport operations provided by URC. Of the short-distance ferry services that are under the jurisdiction of the MoWHC, the following are in operation (for details see Appendix M-1, Interim Report No. 3): • Bukakata-Luku on Lake Victoria. • Wanseko-Panyimur on Lake Albert. • Laropi-Umi on the Albert Nile. • Masindi Port-Kungon on the Victoria Nile. • Kiymdi-Buvuma on Lake Victoria. • Nakiwogo-Kyavumbu on Lake Victoria. The Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) operates the Paraa Ferry on the Victoria Nile in the Murchison Falls National Park. There are also a number of short-distance informal ferry services around Uganda operated by private owners in canoes and small motor boats.

Executive Summary


Infrastructure, facilities and equipment, both land- and water-side, have been neglected and require substantial rehabilitation. These include navigational aids on Lake Victoria.

3.6 Ports and Shipping

3.6.1 Recommendations A review of the overall status of the inland waterways / ports transport sub-sector and its ability to play the required part in Uganda’s transport sector shows that the sub-sector would require substantial overhauling, both in managerial and operational terms, as follows: • Non-revenue earning inland waterways road-bridge ferry services: in order to

improve operational safety and travel conditions of passengers, the turnaround times should be shortened, increasing the number of daily crossings and the overall reliability of the services.

• Revenue-earning Lake Victoria commercial ports – Port Bell and Jinja – should be allowed to recover part of their former position of dominance in Uganda’s transport sector.

It is recommended that the sub-sector be privatized or commercialized, for which a number of scenarios are proposed. In all the scenarios, operations will be the responsibility of the private sector. The scenarios differ in terms of alternative splits of infrastructure rehabilitation expenditure between MoWHC / URC and private investors. The infrastructure would be leased to the private sector on terms appropriate to the burden of rehabilitation and leases would provide for varying fixed payments plus a percentage of operational revenue to MOWHC / URC.

3.6.2 Investments The investment proposals of the 1997 Inland Water Transport Study were reviewed by the Consultant and found to be somewhat overstated. It is recommended that an amount of US$ 13.5 million be invested in rehabilitation and upgrading. Of this, US$ 10.5 million is required in the period 2004-07 and US$ 3.0 in 2008-12. As the nature of privatization is unknown at this stage, the entire amount has been included in the Investment Plan: Phase 1: 2004-2007 - US$ 10.5 million • Phase 2: 2008-2012 - US$ 3.5 million • Phase 3: 2013-2018 - • Total for 15 years: - US$ 13.5 million

Executive Summary


3.7 Ferries

3.7.1 Present Status A backlog of rehabilitation and refurbishment needs to be urgently addressed, including both the ferries themselves and landside facilities.

3.7.2 Recommendations All the proposed scenarios require MoWHC to provide safety equipment, rehabilitate infrastructure and equipment, and ensure that the responsibility for these services falls under a single unit. The scenarios differ in the extent to which user fees are levied.

3.7.3 Investments The investment proposals of the 1997 Inland Water Transport Study were found by the Consultant to be overstated. It is recommended that the following amounts be invested by MoWHC: Phase 1: 2004-2007 - US$ 42.5 million. Phase 2: 2008-2012 - US$ 26.0 million. Phase 3: 2012-2018 - US$ 11.0 million. Total for 15 years - US$ 79.5 million. Total investment in the ports and waterway sector is US$93.0 million. For further details see Table ES-8/ M-5, Interim Report No. 3 (page 20).

4. Greater Kampala Master Plan

4.1 Background Chapter D of the Final Report summarizes the main points presented in Interim Report No. 4 and was prepared with the knowledge that the interested reader could obtain further details and explanations from the interim report itself. Kampala had a population of about 1.2 million in 2003. The present population of the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) is 2.0 million, about 8% of the total population of Uganda. The size of the GKMA work force is about 700,000 and the GDP of GKMA is estimated to be about 30-40 percent of that of the country. The Kampala Metropolitan Area is by far the largest single production centre of Uganda and the centre for industry, commerce and services. According to projections, the GKMA population will grow to about 3.6 million by 2018, i.e. within 14 years.

Executive Summary


The number of public transport trips (not including boda boda) is about 460,000 in the peak AM period or about 800,000 daily trips. This indicates that about 146 trips per person per year are being made in public transport. This is a low figure and indicates: (i) insufficient public transit capacity; (ii) in all likelihood, a large number of walking and bicycle trips; and (iii) a possibly low level of public transport accessibility. The rate of motorization (measured in vehicles per 1,000 population) of Kampala residents is not known with certainty, but even assuming that 50% of all cars, vans and pickups in Uganda operate within Kampala, the motorization rate would be about 20 vehicles per 1,000 population, a relatively low figure. Kampala Metropolitan Area is the richest region in the country but also an area where a large number of poor people reside, all of them seeking better incomes and living conditions. This depends, inter alia, on their ability to find work. The city is served mostly by roads, to a certain extent by a railway and to a much smaller extent by water transport. No domestic public airport exists within Kampala, although the international airport is located at the southwestern boundary of the Metropolitan Area, at Entebbe. Public transport is provided mostly by minibuses (known as “taxis” or “matatus”) operating almost solely on the main radial urban roads without fixed stations or timetables, both suffering from road congestion and contributing to it. Except for part of the city centre and some low income settlements, the area is covered with low density housing. It is also characterized by bad roads,4 poor public transport and high congestion, resulting in lengthy travel time. There is almost no central land-use/transport planning. More importantly, a very low budget allocated for road maintenance and development results in further deterioration. The GKMA is on the North Corridor of East Africa and all cargo and passenger trips crossing East Africa from Mombasa to countries west of the rift valley must at some point in time pass through Kampala's city centre.

4.2 Boundaries The Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area as indicated in the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the study is a geographical zone encompassed by a circle of some 20 km radius from Kampala city centre. Figure ES-14/ D-1 shows the GKMA as indicated by the TOR. The TOR further directs the Consultant to expand on his indicative GKMA boundary and define it with greater precision; additional details can be found in DFR 2.1.

4 A "bad" road is one in which the pavement is in poor condition, there is

lack of traffic management devices, road signs and markings, traffic management is non-existent, and pedestrian walkways and NMV arrangements are to all intents and purposes absent.

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Figure ES-14 (D-1): GKMA Boundaries as per the Terms of Reference

The boundary used follows those of parishes, as the parish is the primary statistical unit for which data are available. Islands and areas covered by water are excluded. The total area of GKMA as defined above is about 970 km2. The maximum east-west distance is about 43 km, while the maximum north-south distance is about 55 km, so as to include Entebbe, which has the metropolitan area’s international airport and a number of important government offices and many commuters to Kampala. It includes 171 parishes, 99 in Kampala District, nine in Mukono District and 63 in Wakiso District. Use of the term “Metropolitan Area” does not imply one unit of government for the whole area, as is clarified in other sections of this report. The GKMA is a capital city with surrounding smaller towns and outlying areas which have strongly-connected social and economic relationships. A recommendation for a different kind of organization is presented in Chapter E of the Final Report. The GKMA area, as defined by the Consultant for the Transport Master Plan, includes land territories administered by the following local government authorities: • Kampala City Council.


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• Entebbe Municipality. • Mukono Town Council. • Kira Town Council (except for Kimwanyi parish). • Wakiso Town Council. • Mukono District (part thereof). • Wakiso District (part thereof).

4.3 GKMA Growth Trends, 1991-2002 and 2003-2018 The population growth trends for the GKMA in the period 1991-2002 and its forecasted expansion are shown in Table ES-9/ D-2.

Table ES-9- (D-2): GKMA Population: Growth and Forecasts

GKMA Central

Region Exc. GKMA

Total Central Region National

Population 1991 1,211,481 3,632,113 4,843,594 16,671,705

Population 2002 2,032,485 4,651,402 6,683,887 24,324,000

Growth rate 1991-2002 4.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.3% Population base year 2003 2,119,000

4,750,000 6,870,000 25,119,000

Population 2008 2,591,000 5,256,692 7,847,317 29,036,000

Growth rate 2003-2008 4.1% 2.0% 2.7% 2.9%

Population 2013 3,102,000 5,734,000 8,837,000 33,087,000

Growth rate 2008-2013 3.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.6%

Population 2018 3,648,000 6,175,000 9,824,000 37,219,000

Growth rate 2013-2018 3.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% Care is taken to reconcile the growth forecasts of the metro area with those of the Central Region for the entire GKMA, especially with regard to the parts of Wakiso and Mukono that fall inside and outside the metro area. The Central Region’s growth forecasts have themselves been reconciled with national forecasts (see the National Transport Master Plan). It is predicted that the rate of growth in GKMA will fall significantly over the planning period of the Transport Master Plan. Despite this, it will remain considerably higher than the national rate and the total GKMA population is expected to increase by about 470,000 (22%) in the coming five years, and by about 1,530,000 (72%) over the 15-year planning horizon. Over the past 11 years, the main population growth in absolute numbers has been in the outer ring of Kampala District and in a belt to the east, generally along Jinja Road. At the same time, the inner core of Kampala District has seen considerable depopulation as the demand for retail, office and general commercial space has displaced residential uses.

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There has also been considerable urban sprawl, with many districts beyond Kampala District experiencing high population growth rates and increases in density. This has been partly due to land cost and availability but also due to the lack of comprehensive land use planning for GKMA. The 1994 Kampala Urban Structure Plan prepared by John van Nostrand Associates was a good study, which addressed the problems of urban sprawl, but its formal provisions were limited to Kampala District and the enforcement thereof has been problematic.

4.4 Existing Situation Using the travel time survey the regional travel time to Kampala centre during the peak period was calculated, as shown in Figure ES-15/ D-6 (overleaf). Table ES-10 / D-4 summarizes the reasons for travel.

Table ES-10 (D-4): Distribution of Trips by Trip Purpose

Purpose of Trip Percentage

Work 44.0%

Education 14.3%

Business 12.9%

Shopping and personal 11.2%

Social 9.6%

Home 6.6%

Other 1.4% Total 100%

Table ES-10/ D-4 shows that the percentage of home trips is low, which is due to the hours in which the survey was conducted.

4.5 Road Network Traits The principal GKMA road network that currently exists within this administrative classification system is presented in Figure ES-16/ D-16, which combines the urban and community access road classifications. Clearly evident within this depiction is the absence of continuity in the National Road designations which traverse the central GKMA core region of KCC, both east-to-west and north-to-south. Although not a formalized functional classification of the GKMA road network, Figure ES-17/ D-17 and the central enlargement in the following Figure ES-18/ D-18 illustrate in a simplified, two-tier fashion the fundamental nature of the GKMA road network. The regional (beyond metropolitan) road network linkages form a cross-shaped (cruciform) north-south and east-west array of

Executive Summary

intersecting axes with the nexus located in the central Kampala area of the metropolitan core. These regional network linkages embody and establish the “Northern Corridor” in the east-west axis along the Jinja Road-Masaka Highway alignments, and the Bombo-Gayaza Road-Entebbe Road combination represents the north-south axis. In essence, with very few exceptions, all principal sub-regional or metropolitan network linkages are radial with respect to that central nexus, or serve as connecting branches to the regional network axes some distance from the central nexus. The conditions of the central urban roads are presented in Tables ES-11/ D-5 and ES-12/ D-6. Together with Figure ES-19/ D-19 (page ES-28), they present detailed comparisons of the district-wide assessment results for each of the internal administrative divisions. These comparative assessments are reinforced by anecdotal observations consistently expressed in public media outlets by many laypersons (residents and visitors) who travel within the Kampala region and appear to share the opinion that road conditions are generally and unacceptably poor.

Table ES-11 Table D-5: Condition of Paved Roads

in Kampala District Divisions

Division Good Fair Poor Very poor TOTAL Length in kilometres

Central 28.41 39.21 22.76 14.15 104.53 Kawempe 14.49 14.42 3.62 2.79 35.32 Makindye 19.80 16.11 5.75 2.41 44.07

Nakawa 11.40 37.22 8.10 11.24 67.96 Rubaga 8.32 25.62 4.50 0.00 38.44 TOTAL 82.42 132.58 44.73 30.59 290.32

Proportion of totals Central 34.47% 29.57% 50.88% 46.26% 36.01%

Kawempe 17.58% 10.88% 8.09% 9.12% 12.17% Makindye 24.02% 12.15% 12.85% 7.88% 15.18%

Nakawa 13.83% 28.07% 18.11% 36.74% 23.41% Rubaga 10.09% 19.32% 10.06% 0.00% 13.24% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


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Table D-6: Condition of Unpaved Roads in Kampala District Divisions

Division Good Fair Poor Very poor TOTAL

Length in kilometres Central 0.75 6.52 1.10 0.43 8.80

Kawempe 2.44 18.87 11.18 23.58 56.07 Makindye 6.27 43.56 26.07 5.94 81.84

Nakawa 7.71 34.62 52.31 2.66 97.30 Rubaga 6.15 29.00 40.43 8.50 84.08 TOTAL 23.32 132.57 131.09 41.11 328.09

Proportion of totals Central 3.22% 4.92% 0.84% 1.05% 2.68%

Kawempe 10.46% 14.23% 8.53% 57.36% 17.09% Makindye 26.89% 32.86% 19.89% 14.45% 24.94%

Nakawa 33.06% 26.11% 39.90% 6.47% 29.66% Rubaga 26.37% 21.88% 30.84% 20.68% 25.63% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Figure ES-19 (D-19)


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4.5.1 Public Transport Vehicle Fleet MoWHC National Transport Database records showed 836 buses and 18,006 minibuses on the roads of Uganda in 2002. Of this total passenger vehicle fleet, an average of 11,420 (60%) were licensed as public transport (PT) vehicles; the remainder are probably utilized for internal government use, "own-account" passenger transportation such as staff buses, tourist vehicles, etc., or other activities not requiring public service licences. The PT licensing authority for Uganda is the National Transport Licensing Board (NTLB), which records the PT vehicle fleet based on the issuance of public service vehicle (PSV) licences. In January 2004, NTLB records indicated some 12,035 vehicles licensed for PT operations, thus showing stable growth in the PT fleet. PSV by type are shown in Table ES-13/ D-7.

Table ES-13 (D-7): Public Service Vehicles (PSV) by Type

PSV licence classes % of total PSV fleet

Omnibuses (Matatu) 72.36%

Buses 03.51%

PMO 03.56%

Rental 07.89%

Town Taxi 03.86%

Country Taxi 00.36%

Tour Operator 06.56% The types and number of PT vehicles operating in the GKMA are shown in Table ES-14/ D-8.

Table ES-14 (D-8): Types and Number of Public Transport Vehicles Operating in the GKMA

Types of PT vehicles operating in the GKMA Quantity

Short-haul urban minibuses 7,0001

Long-haul buses 4382

Motorcycle boda-bodas (not included in NTLB data) >4,0003

(1) Rounded working estimate – a 2003 KCC census identified 6,851 minibuses. (2) >300 positively confirmed to have GKMA as regular

scheduled main origin/ destination. (3) Working data drawn from KCC Boda-Boda registration

system

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The GKMA passenger transport fleet is mainly dependent on minibuses, known locally as "taxis" (matatu). Most have a capacity of 14 passengers plus driver. A number of 25-passenger buses ("coaster" types) have entered the taxi fleet, but quantified data on their numbers are not readily available. An established operator association, the Uganda Taxi Operator and Driver Association (UTODA), represents the majority of taxi owners and drivers. They exhibit the usual shortcomings complained of by users of such para-transit modes, but are more orderly in the way they are conducted. The Kampala PT fleet relies heavily on low-capacity vehicles. Excluding the interurban and international buses, as noted above, the majority of the fleet is 14 seat minibuses and single-passenger taxi-motorbikes (boda-boda). The estimated number of passenger places offered by the existing PT fleet is 102,000. The GKMA PT place-capacity offered is the equivalent of one "standard" bus for every 927 persons (assumed GKMA population 2.3 million). This compares with other international ratios of 1:560 in Hungary, 1:577 in the Kyrgyz Republic, 1:622 in the United Kingdom, 1:720 in Kenya, 1:747 in France, and 1:958 in Germany. Access to cars or other individual forms of motorized transport in Uganda is very low (less than five cars per 1,000 persons) and is significantly lower than the lowest of the cars per population ratio found in the other countries quoted above (Kyrgyz Republic - 40 cars per 1,000 persons). Home-work-home travel patterns in GKMA tend to be radial (periphery-centre-periphery). GKMA is some 30+ km wide at its widest point. Trip lengths of up to more than 15 km each way encounter numbers of the urban poor who live in peripheral settlements. GKMA citizens undertaking such trips by walking will clearly face excessive travel times (a comfortable walking speed being about 5 km/hour). The implications of this with respect to participation in labour markets, retention of employment, access to education and medical services, etc., are difficult to quantify numerically but are obvious to observers of peripheral GKMA settlement areas, where even very young children can be seen walking to school at 6 a.m. The data also have significant environmental-impact implications. Delivering an on-street passenger-place capacity of 105,000 could be achieved by using 1,500 seventy-seat buses or, as in the illustration above, 2,350 forty-five seat buses. Instead, some 11,000 sets of tailpipe emissions are on the GKMA streets daily, thus increasing the hydrocarbon exhaust emissions generated by a factor of four. Table ES-15/ D-9 shows the potential benefits in terms of road space occupied and emissions that are possible when higher capacity bus types are used. The table considers a transport corridor with a passenger volume of 10,000 trips in a single direction.

Executive Summary

Table D-9: Road Space Occupied and Particulate Emissions

by Bus Type and Capacity

Bus Type

Bus capacity

(passenger spaces)

Corridor volume (pass/hr (1-way)

No. of buses req.

Road space

occupied m2

Particulate matter

emissions (g/bhp-hr) 2

Emission Index 1

Minibus 14 10,000 714 6,043 3,571.43 100.00%Coaster 25 10,000 400 5,589 2,000.00 56.00%

Small bus 35 10,000 286 5,257 1,428.57 40.00% Standard bus 45 10,000 222 5,111 1,111.11 31.11%

Urban bus 60 10,000 167 4,217 833.33 23.33% High capacity bus 80 10,000 125 3,450 625.00 17.50%

Articulated bus 100 10,000 100 3,220 500.00 14.00% 1 Minibus fleet = 100%.

2 Calculated using US EPA rating for diesel engine - urban cycle.

It is the opinion that among the major initial issues confronting GKMA passenger transport sector planners are institutional and regulatory issues. Experience in the minibus sector of GKMA passenger transport has shown that, where realistic profit potential exists, private sector capital will mobilize and invest in passenger transport. Yet private sector capital has not shown any inclination to invest in areas of passenger transport other than second-hand imported minibuses or single-passenger motorcycles. These are low-cost, fast-return investments; the skills required for their utilization are minimal; and the assets involved are both cheap and relatively easy to dispose of or to transfer to other uses. The attitude of investors to investment in public transport in GKMA has all the classic symptoms of "short-termism". Investors focus on income withdrawal and relative liquidity of assets. Some form of government intervention or incentive is likely to be needed to change this situation. Lax regulation of passenger operations, as is the case in GKMA at present, also acts as a disincentive to long-term investment in the passenger transport sector. It is not at all obvious why a corporate entity or an existing small-scale operator with ambitions to grow should take on the troubles and risks involved in improving their existing services or of identifying, developing, and equipping new routes when they have no confidence in the middle to long-term prospects for their investment. Under existing regulatory regimes there can be no confidence in effective protection of route and service exclusivity for any new services or routes.

4.5.2 Uganda Taxi Owners and Drivers Association (UTODA) The majority of GKMA taxi owners and drivers are members of the Uganda Taxi Operators and Drivers Association (UTODA). UTODA therefore controls or influences the operation of some 7,000 minibuses in Kampala and GKMA. Its


Executive Summary


juridical status is that of a company limited by guarantee without share capital. UTODA oversees all aspects of the taxi operations of its members in GKMA. Under a fee-based franchise contract with the KCC, UTODA manages the two main GKMA minibus terminals ("taxi parks"). The franchise contract is fixed-term and renewal is theoretically subject to a public competitive tendering process. Realistically, however, few viable competitors with proven resources and experience exist to actively and practically compete with UTODA, which has a very dominant market position. UTODA states that it has plans to build peripheral taxi terminals to minimize increasing central area congestion and to introduce a micro-finance scheme to assist owners in maintaining their vehicles or replacing them with newer vehicles. The actual and current financial performance and actions of UTODA fail, however, to generate confidence in the rapid realization of these schemes.

4.6 Motorization Trends The TMP envisages a future GKMA urban transport development curve (see Figure ES-20/ D-20) that will emulate many of the metropolitan growth experiences that have characterized large conurbation developments worldwide but will seek to avoid replicating the known negative development outcomes. Examples of such negative outcomes are acute air-quality management problems (Mexico City Metropolitan Area), and explosive and relatively uncontrolled urban expansion, leading to chronic traffic congestion problems (Lagos, Bangkok). Nationally, Uganda has low levels of personal motorization, i.e. at the national level access to cars or other individual forms of motorized transport is very low (about eight cars per 1,000 persons) (see Figure ES-20/ D-20). GKMA-specific data on the number of cars and other individual-use vehicles do not yet exist, but even assigning 50% of the total Ugandan fleet of such vehicles (including motorcycles) to the GKMA would not produce GKMA motorization levels above 40 vehicles/1,000 persons, or less than 4% (see Figure ES-20/ D-20).

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Figure D-20

The environmental philosophy of the TMP may be summarized as being people and public transport oriented, but accepting the desire and right of individuals to want to own private means of transport. Those individuals who exercise the choice to own and use private transport means need, however, to be prepared to accept the full implications and costs of such a choice, including an acceptance that the need for free-flowing public transport movements would have priority over the needs of individual modes. TMP does not seek to accommodate private transport modes at the expense of the more than 95% of GKMA residents with no access to private means of transport.

4.6.1 Cargo Traffic Through Kampala Import traffic movement is monitored by URA and the URA data classification relating to general cargo is "dry cargo". This indicates that 64,511 trucks, corresponding to an average of 177 trucks per day, crossed at Malaba and Busia during fiscal year 2002/2003. Of these, 69.8% (daily average 124 trucks) carried cargoes to Uganda and the remaining 30.2% (53 trucks per day) were transit cargoes to neighbouring countries. Typically 83.5% of cargoes are destined for the national market, and 58.5% of transit cargoes entered at Malaba. The majority of this cargo transits into or through GKMA (refer to Figures ES-21/ D-13 and ES-22/ D-14, overleaf). General cargo import and export transport uses the ICD (Inland Container Depot) system. There are 16 ICDs in Kampala (see Figure ES-23/ D-15, overleaf).


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Figure ES-18/ D-18 illustrates in a simplified, two-tier fashion the fundamental nature of the GKMA road network. The regional (beyond metropolitan) road network linkages form a cross-shaped (cruciform) north-south and east-west array of intersecting axes with the nexus located in the central Kampala area of the metropolitan core. Freight movements through and within the GKMA road network are of vital strategic importance to the national economy. It follows that unilateral national or GKMA perspectives and approaches to infrastructure planning, traffic engineering and traffic management on GKMA corridors that carry such freight traffic must be avoided. A fully integrated approach to planning and funding is needed at all levels. There can be no artificial budgetary or responsibility demarcations made between “national” and “urban” road classifications for such strategic corridors – they are one single integrated and vital strategic national economic asset.

4.6.2 Road Safety Trends

By all standard measures, road traffic safety is a serious and growing problem in both Uganda and Greater Kampala, as reflected in Figure ES-24/ D-9, which depicts the national trend with respect to accidents from 1990-2002, with a breakdown of accident severity (fatal, serious and minor) for the incidents reported in each year. Even after a concerted effort to improve safety through public education and enforcement efforts in the late 1990s, accidents still increased, attaining new records in each year since 1999.

Figure ES-24 (D-9): Uganda – Road Safety Trends


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In addition, Figure ES-24/ D-9 depicts the annual levels of fatalities and injuries (number of persons), and a consistent upward trend is evident, with little or no reduction during the period 1995-1998, when a significant reduction in minor accidents occurred. On an almost daily basis, serious accidents occur along the major roads within and leading to Greater Kampala, with individual accidents involving significant numbers of serious injuries or deaths, as highlighted in GKMA popular media. The major reasons for the high accident rate is the lack of pedestrian facilities, coupled with poor roads and road maintenance, and lack of safety policy enforcement. The major reasons for the high accident rate are the lack of pedestrian facilities, poor roads and road maintenance and lack of road safety enforcement.

4.7 Current Deficiencies The transport system in the GKMA suffers from a number of deficiencies. Most of these deficiencies are a function of the continuous lack of funds, some are the result of insufficient inputs in the way of good engineering practices and the lack of a functional organization structure to meet the growing needs of an urban population. Given the size of the Metropolitan Area and the forecasted demographic and economic growth, it appears that with “The Business As Usual” approach, the problems being faced today will be aggravated in the future. Current transport issues include the following: The public transport service is disorganized, being provided by “taxis” (vans with 11 to 14 seats) operating without a timetable or fixed stops, soliciting passengers along the route, and stopping everywhere. • Roads were designed (if at all) and constructed without taking into account

the needs of pedestrians and non-motorized vehicle (NMV) transport. • As a result of low density, poor residential areas and lack of roads, many

inhabitants have to walk long distances in order to be served by public transport, which limits the “space of choice”.

• Although the number of walking trips to work and for other purposes is not known, a comparison between the GKMA and other cities shows that it is high. Both bicycles and motorcycles are used as a mode of “for-hire” transport, either for passengers or for goods, and it is common to see a bicycle carrying a load twice the size of the rider.

• Road maintenance is not up to date and this adds to the congestion, road safety problems, and additional travel costs.

• The design of some main intersection/roundabouts is outdated and is not appropriate for the amount of traffic and present-day traffic composition.

• As a result of the lack of circumferential roads, almost all traffic crossing the city along the Northern East-Africa corridor must one way or the other cross the city centre. This, coupled with the local traffic, causes severe congestion

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in the city centre during most hours of the day; during morning and afternoon peak hours the average speed is less than 15 kph.

• Taking into account the size of the city and the amount of traffic, there are very few traffic management devices in the area (and by definition no area traffic control or central monitoring devices).

• The method of operation of the public transport taxis is very basic. The driver has to pay a daily fee to the owner and must pay the vehicle operating costs himself. This forces him to drive on his last litre of fuel, at times making the vehicle come to a standstill midway through its journey and adding to the congestion.

• No large buses provide local transport services within Kampala or the GKMA.

• All taxis must go through the “taxi parks” (large open fields serving as a kind of a terminal) where they wait in line and pick up passengers. The roads surrounding this park are very crowded.

At present, parking in the city centre is organized and controlled, but there is almost no provision for off-street car parking. Once the economy improves, there will be an incentive for car parking, which might drive business out of the city centre.

4.8 GKMA Future Development: Transport Master Plan – The Vision When preparing a Transport Master Plan for a metropolitan area like GKMA the following questions must be addressed: • What is the desired future for the city and what can and should be done in the

years to come that will have an effect on the well-being of the population? • What do the people desire and what will be the future physical, cultural,

environmental and social facets of the city? • What are the overall possibilities, which of these possibilities are feasible, and

which ones should be selected for implementation? Basically the question to be asked is, “What is economically and politically the practical vision of the TMP? – "vision" being used as an achievable scenario. One problem associated with planning the development of cities and conurbations is that very often these entities in "developing" countries seek to emulate the development patterns of their more affluent "developed" counterparts without going through the very necessary process of analyzing the mistakes made by the latter. The proliferation of the private car in "developed" cities has in some cases, especially in the US, made public transport, especially buses and tramways (light rail), extinct; this resulted in thousands of kilometres of the public transport network being eliminated during the period 1920 to 1940. Cities throughout the world are now attempting to reinstall the public transport systems that they had

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erroneously discarded years ago. It is important that GKMA avoid making such mistakes by learning from them. In many large cities worldwide, rail systems such as the underground (subway), trams and/or commuter rail developed at the beginning of the last century. In such cities, the introduction of this fast, reliable urban transport mode served as the catalyst for their growth. In the context of GKMA, the following issues must be addressed: • The chances of developing such systems in GKMA. • The affordability of such systems for GKMA. • The possibility of developing good urban transport services without investing

billions of precious dollars. • The ways in which GKMA can develop a better and more efficient transport

network that will support an improved living environment and greater prosperity within the metropolitan area.

• Above all, the ways in which the communities/local authorities can pool their efforts and create the organization needed to carry out the plan successfully.

4.8.1 The Options Three scenarios were analysed and are summarised below: Scenario I: “Business as usual” whereby the GKMA will continue with the status quo, be managed and developed as it is at present. Scenario II: “Planned Development” influencing the growth of employment centres. Scenario III – Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) - Adapting a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) approach will lead to economically feasible and affordable solutions for the transport problems. The TOD assumes that procedures for future GKMA urban development and planning will guide and control land-use and transport development. In addition, a metropolitan-level transport authority served by a professional transport secretariat will be created by agreement amongst the GKMA local authorities. This transport unit will identify and plan the investment needed in the supporting transport projects to serve the new developments. Although TOD favours the use of public transport in all viable situations, it does not mean that road networks will not be further developed or that the needs of car drivers will be neglected. In the developing world, however, where cities are growing rapidly and car ownership is still relatively low, a TOD-based strategy provides an opportunity to design the urban form such that it becomes movement-efficient, facilitating high-capacity transit modes and services. Low-income residents can thus be served by cheaper and faster transit services, spend less of their income and time on transportation, and have better access to jobs and other urban facilities. Under this scenario, they will need to make fewer short trips by informal, low-capacity transit modes, reducing both congestion and pollution. In

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the long term, TOD planning principles will contribute to a slower motorization rate and will mitigate some of its negative effects. The central idea behind the TOD scenario is to cluster areas of more intensive land use in the inner metropolitan area, in major mixed-use corridors and (to a more limited extent) in the periphery along some circumferential corridors, all in a development pattern that is movement-efficient. Such a strategy will enable the attainment of corridor trip-volume thresholds that can economically support better public transport services, while being attractive to residents because of reduced travel time and cost. It will also be attractive to development of economic activities and public services by virtue of reduced overall congestion, better transport facilities for employees, and concentrated catchment areas for business, retail and public services. This scenario envisages the construction of paved circumferential roads, reconstruction of existing roads to international standards, incorporating road safety principles, and accommodating vehicular and non-motorized traffic as well as public transport operations. The scenario also envisages that the majority of the population will continue in the foreseeable future to depend heavily on public transport of all forms, from large buses and minibuses to boda bodas. A new GKMA land use plan will be prepared, one that will allow for higher densities and location of specific types of land use, i.e. commercial, light industry, recreation, residential, etc. Construction of busways on key central and radial roads (which may subsequently be converted to light rail) is envisaged, while the entire public transport system will be regulated through a metropolitan-level institutional framework. Figure ES-25/ D-24 depicts schematically the deployment of land uses under Scenario III, assuming that bus lanes are incorporated in radial road redesign and reconstruction. Land uses will intensify along major public transport corridors by exhibiting higher "plot ratios" or floor area to parcel area ratios.

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Figure ES-25 (D-24): Scenario III Development Pattern

The GKMA transportation model was applied to these scenarios, and the summary of these results is presented below in Table ES-16/ D-12. As can be seen, the benefits of the application of Scenario III are great.

Table ES-16 (D-12): Summary of Model Results

Scenario Vehicle-Trips Passenger-Trips Average Distance of Passenger Travel (km)

Average time of Passenger Travel

(hrs)

Average speed of Passenger (km/h)

Current 12,519 50,498 10.2 0.40 25.3 Committed, Future demand (Business

As Usual), 2018 48,362 130,726 12.7 0.90 14.2 Proposed Future,

2018 48,832 132,065 12.6 0.42 30.0 Vehicle trips does not include matatu/ buses. Passenger trips are only PT passengers.

4.8.2 The Benefits of TOD A preliminary and approximate estimation of the impact of the TOD that uses simple geometric considerations and assumptions that the consultant’s experience


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indicates as reasonable is the only feasible approach available at this time to demonstrate TOD-related benefits. In order to make calculations for the provisional assessment, the following assumptions were made concerning the future scenarios: • Existing dwelling will remain in place, and new construction will be in the

areas along the main public transportation routes, generally no more than 400 m from the routes, so the average access distance for the new dwelling will be 200 m. Accordingly, the current population will keep the same average access distance, and the additional population in each zone will have same 200-m access.

• Currently the population is allocated evenly over the TAZ area. In most cases this assumption results in reasonable approximation of the average access distance; however, for some TAZ expert estimates were used instead.

• The average access distance (current situation) for each TAZ was calculated taking into account perimeter and area of the TAZ, and location of the TAZ relative to the public transport network.

• Walking speed is 4 km/h. Based on these assumptions, calculations were performed of the public transportation access measures. The results are summarized in Table ES-17/D-10.

Table ES-17 Table D-10: Access Time and Walking Distance Savings for TOD Scenario

(AM peak hour)

Super zone PT trips generated Pass-km Savings per trip (new trips)

No. Description Year 2003

Year 2018 BAU TOD Time

(minutes)Walking

distance (km)1 Entebbe Rd 1019 3226 10000 4963 34 2.32 SE outer band 2856 12075 12961 4991 13 0.93 SW outer band 663 1887 3530 1536 24 1.64 W outer band 3133 13196 24726 8220 25 1.65 N outer band 708 2000 3178 1399 21 1.46 NE outer band 399 1138 3027 1212 37 2.57 E outer band 3310 14737 28227 9358 25 1.78 E inner band 4540 13888 11853 5717 10 0.79 SE inner band 3102 7826 5944 3179 9 0.6

10 W inner band 1666 6563 6617 2683 12 0.811 N inner band 5180 19516 16296 7223 9 0.612 Central area - - - - - - Total 26576 96052 126358 50481 16 1.1

Notes 1. Superzone is a group of TAZ. 2. Central area was not considered, since TAZ sizes in this area are small; also almost all the population is located in

the vicinity of the major transportation arterials.


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It should be noted that the assumption of keeping the pattern of current population allocation unchanged in the future is conservative. It would be expected that part of the currently allocated population would move into the planned future dense dwelling areas. However, it is difficult to quantify this tendency at this time and therefore the above results should be considered as an underestimation of the improvement in access to public transportation. Another benefit of the TOD, which cannot be evaluated using the existing model, relates to the induced demand for transportation: improvement in accessibility causes an increase in the number of trips made.

4.9 Conceptual Long Term Development Plan The long term plan is composed of five major items: • Investment in public transit vehicles. • Investment in Roads and highways. • Investment in traffic management. • Investment in road safety improvement. • Investment in procuring new buses. The total investment estimated to be needed until 2018 approximates $890 million. Table ES-18/D-19 presents the investment by items on a yearly basis and Table D-13 presents the proposed investments by projects (located in Chapter D). The different locations are identified in Table D-13 and are depicted in Figure ES-26/D-32 (overleaf). The railway crossing upgrade subcomponent has an indicative estimated cost of approximately US$ 7.5 million.

4.10 GKMA - Fifteen Year Investment Program Summary Table ES-18 (D-19): GKMA Recommended Conceptual Investment up to 2018

Type of

investment Description Estimated investment (US$ millions)

Roads Dual W railway viaduct 4.74 km 29.88 Dual carriageway 122.85 km 176.90 Single carriageway 572.93 km 278.45

Total Roads 485.23 Safety improvements

Junction improvements 62 location 48.00

Railway crossing 27 locations 7.44 Walkway network 1053 km 17.80

Total Traffic Safety Improvements 73.24 Ferry/Bridge Waiya Bay crossing 10.43 Bus fleet1 323.00

Total Investment in the GKMA Transport Sector 891.90 1 – Private sector investment

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Within the classification as depicted in Figure ES-26/ D-32 and reflected in Table ES-19/ D-18 (overleaf), approximately 573 km of roads are indicated, with a total indicative investment cost of approximately US$ 278 million. These different locations are depicted in Figure ES-26/ D-32 with circular symbols of uniform colouration, although distinctions in the extent of potential improvement have been made for purposes of modelling and estimation of indicative investment cost as reflected in Table ES-19/ D-18.

5. Proposed Organizational Structure Creating the right institutional structure and training the professional staff needed for successful operation of the new organizations designed to be responsible for transport planning and monitoring in Uganda are probably the most important products of the present study. The cardinal question is not where to invest the available funds, but rather how to make the needed improvements fit the available funds, both now and in the years to come. The future of the country needs to be shaped in such a way that it will provide a reasonable level of service to the inhabitants. In a country with scarce natural resources, but with a population having the necessary abilities and skills, every shilling counts. Hence having the right organization with trained staff taking the right decisions is a major objective of the Transport Master Plan recommendations. The task of the Consultant in developing the institutional recommendations is to advise on the proper organization, missions, responsibilities and tasks to deal with all the sectors of transport throughout the country and to ensure that the relevant staff receives the proper training. The Final Report focuses on the recommendations made for organizational structuring rather than on the details of the present organizations, the role of each and their individual deficiencies, as these are described in detail in Interim Report No. 5. The recommendations are divided into three parts, as follows: • Creation of a new organizational structure within MoWHC. This new unit is

the proposed Transport Master Plan Office (TMPO), whose role will be to serve as a central transport planning unit responsible for monitoring implementation of both the master plans. It will also be responsible for developing and applying methodologies and techniques for conducting transport planning in accordance with the principles of transport economics, as well as liaising and coordinating with the land use planning of the region and the country. The TMPO will in addition monitor development of the master plans and keep abreast of the socioeconomic parameters of the country in order to readily incorporate changes in the investment plan and/or transport policy.

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• Creation of a new organization, the Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (MATA) and its executive body the Metropolitan Area Transport Executive (MATE), in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) by means of legislation by the Government or by agreement between the municipalities. The Transport Authority will define the investment priorities for the Metropolitan Area and monitor development of the GKMA master plan. MATE will be in charge of planning and the technical work involved in planning and programming the investments and transport options, as well as management.

• Training of personnel and technical assistance for the professional bodies responsible for transport planning and operations within MoWHC and within GKMA.

5.1 Transport Master Plan Office (TMPO) The TMPO vision is to anticipate, plan for, promote and implement efficient and cost-effective domestic and international transport services for all segments of the Ugandan population and all sectors of the national economy. The vision also includes periodic updates in accordance with changes in economic conditions and actual performance of past investments in order to achieve the set of objectives with maximum equity and safety, and minimum environmental degradation. The TMPO mission is to develop safe, reliable, effective, integrated transport infrastructures and operations that will best meet the needs of travel and transport in terms of improving levels of service at a realistic cost while supporting government strategies for positive socio-economic development and being at the same time economically and environmentally sustainable.

5.2 Proposed TMPO Summary of Responsibilities and Powers of the TMPO

The TMPO requires adequate and properly empowered authority to fulfil its tasks effectively. It is suggested that it be directly subordinate to MoWHC (refer to Figure ES-27/ E-1 on page ES-45), such an affiliation providing it with the necessary ministerial commitment to the TMPO in its dealings with implementation bodies, as well as support in political circles and with higher level decision makers. Following are the main responsibilities of the TMPO: - It will be actively involved and have broad authority in determining the order

of priorities for activating the various programs, based on budgetary, organizational, technological and social constraints.

- It will adjust and refine the TMP according to expected and unexpected changes occurring during plan implementation. These can stem from changing economic situations, severe budgetary limitations, international transportation agreements and other reasons.

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- It will exercise its powers and authority to avoid, prevent, mitigate or remove obstacles to implementing the plan. Such obstacles may include political, budgetary and institutional factors.

- It will monitor in quantitative and qualitative terms all aspects of TMP implementation; this will require systematic review and audit of implementation of project components included in the TMP. It will issue directives for corrective actions to resolve any delays or deviations identified; these will cover without restriction all quantitative and qualitative aspects of implementation. Monitoring activities must also ensure that all activities taking place within the framework of the TMP are transparent and accountable.

- It will manage implementation of the TMP, mobilizing the preparation process in this respect (This will include initial coordination between the relevant agencies and support in their preparations toward activation of the plan. TMPO will be involved in the planning and implementation of development and guidance programs, including training needs.)

- Where legal-legislative problems arise in connection with TMP activities, it will intervene to develop solutions that satisfy both the legal and the implementation issues involved (Figure ES-27/ E-1).

The TMPO will be managed and staffed in coordination with implementation units in MoWHC and GKMA that have specific responsibilities for, respectively, the National TMP and the GKMA TMP. The TMPO will establish strategic guidelines and policy. These guidelines will translate into a working program and a budgetary program that will form the basis of the activities within the two implementing units.

Executive Summary

Figure ES-27 (E-1): Transport Master Plan Office


National TMP Implementation Unit

MoWHC Modal Agencies

Greater Kampala TMP Implementation Unit

Greater Kampala Transport Authority

TRANSPORT MASTER PLANS OFFICE

(TMP Oversight, Management, Audit)

MMooWWHHCC

MMiinniisstteerr

Managing Director Transport Planner Traffic Engineer Transport Economist

5.3 Transport Plan Implementation Units

Two implementation units will operate within the framework of the TMPO, one responsible for National TMP implementation oversight and the other responsible for GKMA TMP oversight. These filial units will be the direct liaison units between the TMPO and the National and GKMA plan implementers (see Appendices 3 and 4 in Interim Report No. 5). The professional areas to be handled by the office (and accordingly, the staffing and positions within it) will include fields relevant to both units. The filial units will form the functional oversight units within the TMP institutional structure and it is critical that each unit engage in close coordination and complete cooperation through sharing of specialized staff and equipment resources, in addition to project-related areas involving geographic overlap.

5.4 Government Policy Concerning the Transport Sector The institutional mechanisms necessary for effective policymaking, higher-level planning, allocation of funding and regulation of the transport sector need to be developed and put in place. This will reinforce the overall policy objectives of ensuring efficient and cost-effective services by adopting a sector-wide approach to the development of infrastructures and services.

Executive Summary


MoWHC will remain as the lead government agency in the national transport sector, but will continue to withdraw, in measured steps, from direct involvement in operational management MoWHC will maintain responsibility for higher-level policymaking, higher-level planning directives, and monitoring, financing, budgeting and regulation of the sector. Its role with respect to the separate roads, railways, aviation and water transport sub-sectors should change towards one in which an industry-wide perspective applies, with individual mode priorities subordinated to wider sectoral priorities. The MoFPED departments currently focusing on the transport sector need to evolve as planned changes to management of the sector, including privatization of the railways, are introduced. The creation of a TMPO and the division of responsibilities between the MoWHC and MATA is not a clear cut process and it is therefore recommended that as soon as the MoWHC has adopted the option presented, a team is appointed by the MoWHC to prepare an in-depth analysis of the present laws and regulations in order to recommend procedural practices to be followed. The above recommendation should not delay the creation of the Transport Master Plan Office within the MoWHC, assigning to it the responsibilities of monitoring implementation of the Transport Master Plan along with developing the requisite methodologies and tools for analysis.

5.5 Proposed Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (MATA) Figure ES-28/ E-2 (page 47) presents a functional diagram setting out the Local Authority, Sectoral Government Ministry and other GoU agencies which in the Consultant’s view need – by formal agreement – to combine their GKMA transportation responsibilities within a single Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (MATA). The format and composition of the MATA will be defined by the outcomes of the negotiations and agreements to set up the Metropolitan Transport Authority that will need to take place between the seven local authorities within whose boundaries the GKMA Transport Zone has evolved. The Consultant's recommendation is that MoWHC could act as an impartial broker to convene and guide these detailed negotiations. The Metropolitan Transport Authority is intended to act as a single-purpose urban transport authority acting on behalf of the seven GKMA local authorities on transportation planning and policy issues. For more details, please refer to Chapter E.

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Figure E-2: Metropolitan Area Transport Authority

5.6 Proposed Metropolitan Area Transport Executive (MATE) The Metropolitan Area Transport Executive (MATE) will function as an autonomous professional unit reporting to the MATA Chair. MATE will provide the professional, technical, economic and financial assessments and recommendations that inform MATA decisions. The unit will maintain its own budget, financial systems and accounts. In the medium term, unit funding will be by a combination of transferred funds from GKMA local authority transport budgets (at a level reflecting current and historical applications of funds to urban transport planning and control activities), the management of nationally assigned GKMA funding on behalf of the local authorities, and MATE direct revenue


Executive Summary


incomes from sources such as transport-related franchise fees. In future, MATE direct revenues will include performance-related management fees for the management and oversight of urban transport franchises on behalf of GKMA authorities. The Consultant recommends that the juridical structure adopted for MATE place it outside direct government or civil service salary constraints and terms of employment. MATE corporate status should allow commercial law to apply to it rather than Civil Service codes. Results-related salaries, commercial terms of employment and corporate accountability will all contribute to MATE efficiency. A more dynamic MATE culture will develop under such systems. The head of MATE will report directly on policy matters to the Chair of MATA. MATE should function with a high degree of autonomy. MATA will however retain the right to call upon the Town Clerk of any or all GKMA local authorities to conduct (under predefined terms of reference) audits of MATE procedures and functions in order to ensure that the appropriate balance is maintained between MATE self-financing objectives and its public service obligations. MATE will be a compact professional unit staffed by transport planners, transportation economics and finance specialists, traffic and highway engineers, and public transport operations specialists. The unit will make extensive use of computer systems and include only the administrative and support personnel directly needed for its internal functioning. Surveys and on-street supervision will as far as is practicable be outsourced. MATE budgetary planning, however, must include the necessary funding provision for regular field surveys and analyses contracted as needed from specialist agencies or academic groups. The functional organization of MATE is shown in Figure ES-29/ E-3 (overleaf).

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Figure E-3: GKMA - MATE Functional Organization


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5.7 Metropolitan Area Transport Executive (MATE) Objectives Catalogue of objectives and functions: • Serves as a professional support unit to MATA • It is a planning, regulatory, supervision and enforcement agency • Involved in planning and updating of the TMP for GKMA and liaison with the

general planning for Kampala. • act as the procurement agency for urban transport services and franchises

within GKMA, therefore it is institutionally separate from infrastructure construction agencies and service operators

• Monitor the accountabilities and value-for-money of all urban transport funds. • Act as coordinating link between national institutions, local institutions,

equipment suppliers and transport users. • Propose and develop modifications to existing regulations. • Responsible for obtaining the necessary national approvals of municipal

regulations related to urban transport. • Establish practical working rules and procedures for urban transport operations

and operators. • Regulations need to be specifically detailed in operating franchises and

contracts.

6. Summary of Investments and Funding The proportion of investment required by each group is shown in Figure ES-30/ F-1. A summary of the needed investments and the funds available is shown in Table ES-20/ F-2. Figure ES-1/ F-2 presents year-by-year expenditure, funds available, and the shortfall/excess of funds in particular years. Table ES-21/ F-3 presents year-by-year expenditure, funds available, and the shortfall/excess of funds in particular years.

Executive Summary


Table of Contents

1. Introduction........................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Background................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study Objectives ........................................................................................................ 2 1.3 The Transport Sector Investment Plan....................................................................... 3 1.4 Transport Master Plan................................................................................................ 3

2. Demography and Economy................................................................................................ 5 2.1 National Population and Economic Forecasts ........................................................... 5

3. Uganda National Transport System................................................................................... 9 3.1 Summary of Investments in the National Transport System ................................... 10 3.2 Road Transport......................................................................................................... 12 3.3 Rail Transport .......................................................................................................... 17 3.4 Air Transport............................................................................................................ 19 The National Master Plan .................................................................................................... 19 3.5 Ports and Waterways................................................................................................ 20 3.6 Ports and Shipping ................................................................................................... 21 3.7 Ferries ...................................................................................................................... 22

4. Greater Kampala Master Plan.......................................................................................... 22 4.1 Background.............................................................................................................. 22 4.2 Boundaries ............................................................................................................... 23 4.3 GKMA Growth Trends, 1991-2002 and 2003-2018................................................ 25 4.4 Existing Situation..................................................................................................... 26 4.5 Road Network Traits................................................................................................ 26 4.6 Motorization Trends................................................................................................. 32 4.7 Current Deficiencies ................................................................................................ 35 4.8 GKMA Future Development: Transport Master Plan – The Vision........................ 36 4.9 Conceptual Long Term Development Plan.............................................................. 41 4.10 GKMA - Fifteen Year Investment Program Summary............................................ 41

5. Proposed Organizational Structure .................................................................................. 42 5.1 Transport Master Plan Office (TMPO).................................................................... 43 5.2 Proposed TMPO....................................................................................................... 43 5.3 Transport Plan Implementation Units...................................................................... 45 5.4 Government Policy Concerning the Transport Sector ............................................. 45 5.5 Proposed Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (MATA) ................................... 46 5.6 Proposed Metropolitan Area Transport Executive (MATE) ................................... 47 5.7 Metropolitan Area Transport Executive (MATE) Objectives ................................. 50

6. Summary of Investments and Funding ............................................................................ 50

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