Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

The Henry Fund

Henry B. Tippie College of Business

Yun-Hsin (Jocelyn) Liu [yun-hsin-liu@uiowa.edu]

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) November 13, 2020

Consumer Discretionary – Online Travel Agencies Stock Rating NO ACTION

Investment Thesis Target Price $111-136

We recommend No Action for Expedia Group due to its 16% potential upside. Our

recommendation is based on the current market conditions where uncertainties

remained since COVID-19 outbreak. The pandemic has made direct impacts to the

travel industry due to a steep decline in consumer spending, and increasing

competition in the industry. Most importantly, depending on how long the effective

vaccine would be made available to the general public, traveling industry could

return to norm slower than expected. In addition to the vaccine, we are also closely

monitoring other potential factors that might expedite the recovery for global

economy such as firm’s ongoing expansion in Chinese market.

Drivers of Thesis

• Direct Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak: Lack of effective vaccine and the long

duration of pandemic has materially impacted consumer’s demand for traveling

and the usage of Expedia’s platform as a result. With the expectation of slower

recovery, we are forecasting a lower-than-historical average annual growth rate

of -25% in 2020 fiscal year, 20% in 2021 fiscal year, and 9% afterwards (2022-

2024) in retail revenue segment [3].

• Significant Decline in Consumer Spending: EXPE has underperformed the

industry by 37x and the sector by 34x in ROE ratio [2]. Since COVID-19 outbreak,

there is significant decline in consumer spending. EXPE holds 90% revenue from

direct travel booking, hence it has been affected the most when compared to

its peers.

• Increasing Competition in Online Travel Industry: Online travel industry has

seen increased competition over the past few years. Large companies such as

Google has also penetrated the industry offering a lower cost alternative [4].

Operating margin has decreased by 55% since 2017 because of higher

competition in the industry [3].

Risks to Thesis

• Economic Rebound Following Effective Vaccine Being Widely Available: If the

effective vaccines have been verified and started to become widely available for

people across countries, we expect a quick and significant improvement in

consumer demands in traveling. This would strengthen Expedia’s core online

booking revenue and overall financial health.

• Competitive Position in the Industry with Strong Network and Leading Digital

Platform: Expedia’s strong network effect has contributed to its uniqueness and

competitive advantage. For this reason, we modeled a better-than-peers annual

average growth rate of 9% in retail revenue segment after fiscal year 2021 [3].

• Further Growth in Chinese Market: Expedia could benefit from further

expansion in China, in-destination, and vacation rental markets.

Henry Fund DCF $111

Henry Fund DDM $136

Price Data

Current Price $117.5

52wk Range $40.76 – $119.9

Consensus 1yr Target $111.8

Key Statistics

Market Cap (M) 13,296

Shares Outstanding (M) 147.2

Institutional Ownership 98.7%

Five Year Beta 1.66

Dividend Yield 0.0%

Est. 5yr Growth (EPS) 4.5%

Price/Earnings (TTM) 24.3x

Price/Earnings (FY1) 46.3x

Price/Sales (TTM) 1.5x

Price/Book (mrq) 7.7x

Profitability

Operating Margin -12.7%

Profit Margin -30.6%

Return on Assets (TTM) -2.7%

Return on Equity (TTM) -45.6%

Source: Yahoo! Finance, Net Advantage

Earnings Estimates Year 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

EPS $2.49 $2.71 $3.84 $-13.93 $-0.45 $3.88

Consensus $-8.65 $-0.38 $3.96

Growth +9% +41% -463% -97% -968%

12 Month Performance Company Description

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Expedia is the world’s largest online travel agency by

bookings, offering services for lodging, air tickets, rental

cars, cruises, in-destination, and other and advertising

revenue. The company operates through three business

segments: Retail, B2B, and Trivago. Transaction fees for

online bookings account for the bulk of sales and profits

of Expedia. Expedia was founded in 1994 and is

headquartered in Seattle, WA.

24.3

-32.5

-0.9

28.4

4.22.1

34.6

1.6 0.2

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

P/E ROE ROA

EXPE Industry Sector

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

N D J F M A M J J A S O N

EXPE S&P 500

Page 2

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Expedia Group, Inc. is an online travel company. The company is

one of the world largest travel agency, with nearly 25,400

employees. The company’s offerings primarily include airline

tickets, hotel reservations, car rentals, cruise arrangements, and

destination services [6].

The company used to operate in four major business segments

which are Core Online Travel Agency, Vrbo, Trivago, and Egencia.

Core Online Travel Agency generates revenue by providing a full

range of traveling and advertising services to the customers.

Vrbo generates revenue by operating an online marketplace for

the alternative accommodations industry. Trivago segment

generates revenue by advertising, primarily from sending

referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers

from its hotel metasearch websites [6].

However, at the beginning of the first quarter this year as an

effort to keep its revenue stream clear to investors, Expedia has

changed its reportable segments into: Retail (Core online travel

agency, and Vrbo revenue segment combined), B2B (Egencia

segment before), and Trivago. We have also incorporated this

revenue segment change into our model. The retail segment

provides a full range of traveling and advertising services to its

customers. B2B revenue segment provides booking services to

the corporate customers. On the other hand, Trivago segment

generates advertising revenue primarily from sending referrals

to online travel companies and travel service providers from its

hotel metasearch websites [10].

In particular, the retail revenue segment has started to face

increasing competition from other players. Its competitors

include Booking Holdings. (Ticker: BKNG) and its subsidiaries

Booking.com and Agoda.com, Trip.com (Ticker: TCOM), and

TripAdvisor (Ticker: TRIP) which in some cases may have more

favorable offerings for travelers or suppliers such as better

pricing and wider options.

We have adjusted the revenue segment that was reported for

fiscal year 2019 so that it would reflect the change that the firm

has made this year. The following shows the revenue breakdown

by segment:

Source: EXPE FY 2019 10K

The following sections detail further information about each

revenue segment and firm’s profitability:

Retail

Ninety percent of Expedia’s revenue is generated by the Retail

revenue segment. This revenue provides a full range of traveling

and advertising services for customers around the world. The

variety of brands include Expedia.com and Hotels.com in the

U.S., and localized Expedia and Hotels.com websites throughout

the world: Vrbo, Orbitz, Travelocity, Wotif Group, ebookers,

CheapTickets, Hotwire.com, CarRentals.com, CruiseShipCenters,

Classic Solutions and SilverRail Techonologies,Inc. [10].

This revenue segment has experienced the largest drawdown

since the COVID-19 outbreak. Since the pandemic, many people

have cancelled their travel plans in order to minimize the

chances of getting infected. The chart below shows a 78% drop

in tourist arrivals around the world when compared to prior

year. Fifty seven percent of Expedia sales comes within the U.S.,

and forty three percent comes from international [5]. As a

result, Expedia’s retail segment dropped 80% YoY as of Q2 2020

[10].

Source: UNWTO

We expect the demand in traveling will only start to pick up

again when an effective vaccine is approved and able to be made

90%

5%5%

Fiscal Year 2019 Sales Breakdown by Segment

Retail

B2B

Trivago

Historical International Tourists Arrivals

Page 3

available to the general public. As a result, we projected a 25%

decline in this revenue segment in 2020, 20% growth rate in

fiscal year 2021, and an annual average growth rate 9% from

2022 - 2024 to reflect a slower recovery from pandemic [3].

Source: EXPE HF Model

B2B

Five percent of Expedia’s revenue comes from the B2B revenue

segment. This revenue segment generates revenue by providing

traveling services to businesses and their corporate customers.

The B2B segment is comprised of the company’s Expedia

Business Services organization such as Expedia Partner

Solutions [10].

Since the pandemic, many companies are now working from

home and has reduced the frequency of business trips to cut

costs. As a result, in the most recent quarterly report, Expedia

reported a -13% YoY in this revenue segment.

We expect the pandemic to continue to worsen since the flu

season is just around the corner. On the other hand, as the

situation has lasted for more than six months now, people

started to become more relaxed and less cautious about social

distancing. For this reason, we project a 25% drop in B2B

revenue segment which is aligned with the industry average

estimate based on the data gathered from Statists [11]. In

addition, we also project the travel industry to recover gradually

from 2021-2024 as more companies continue to work from

home and lower costs on businesses travels. We believe for

business travel to return back to normal; it will take another two

to three years. Therefore, we project a lower than the historical

average annual growth rate of 6% in B2B revenue segment [3].

The chart below shows historical and projected revenue growth

for B2B:

Source: Henry Fund Model

Trivago

Five percent of Expedia’s revenue comes from Trivago, which is

a hotel metasearch website. Trivago revenue segment generates

advertising revenue from sending referrals to online travel

companies and traveling service providers from Trivago’s

websites [10]. Even though Trivago has been spending a

significant amount of advertising fees worldwide to increase its

search traffic, Google has become the largest hotel metasearch

engine. According to Fornova, Google earns 79% of all hotel

metasearch bookings, while Trivago earns 30% [23]. The chart

below shows each key player’s market share hotel metasearch

industry.

Source: Fornova

In addition, given the decline in traveling demand post COVID-

19 outbreak, online travel agencies have dramatically reduced

marketing speed, including on trivago. As a result, in Q1 2020,

trivago revenue segment reported a drop of 23% year-over-

year. The management team indicated in the Q2 2020

announcement that it expects trivago revenue segment to

continue to experience significant pressure on revenue and

profit until online travel agencies and other hotel suppliers begin

to see the consumer demand pick up again, which will then

increase their marketing demand [10]. Moreover, we expect

hotel metasearch revenue from Trivago to continue to decline

as Google continues to dominate and increase its market share

in hotel metasearch. Therefore, we expect the firm’s revenue to

Page 4

drop -25% in 2020, which is aligned with recent travel industry

growth. From 2021 through 2024, it is expected to deliver an

annual average growth rate of 1% (lower than the historical

average annual growth rate) to reflect more competition in hotel

metasearch [3].

The chart below shows historical and projected revenue growth

for Trivago:

Source: Henry Fund Model

Cost Structure

EXPE incurs costs in relation to the operation of the business,

including direct costs to support its customers as well as fees to

air ticket fulfillment vendors, credit card processing fees, fraud

and chargebacks, and other costs that are related to data center

and cloud costs to support its websites. Expedia also incurs

transactional level taxes, personnel and overhead costs [10].

As of Q1 2020, cost of revenue has increased $139mm year-

over-year. This was driven by an increase in bad debt expense

as a result of higher booking cancellation and refunds due to

COVID-19 [10].

Thus, we project an average 18% direct cost as a percentage of

total sales from 2021 – 2024 as we expect COVID-19 effect

continues to be in place [3].

The following chart shows EXPE’s cost breakdown:

Source: EXPE FY2019 10K

Expedia’s gross margin as of 2019 is at the middle range when

compared to its peers including TripAdvisor (Ticker: TRIP),

Booking Holdings (Ticker: BKNG), and Trip.com (Ticker: TCOM).

Source: FactSet

Below is a line graph of our model margin projection:

Source: HF Model

We expect the margin growth to maintain at historical level of

82% from 2021-2024, and 78% gross margin in 2020 to reflect

lower travel demand.

ESG

According to FactSet, EXPE ranked a score of 23.4, which is in

the third percentile compared to other companies in the

market, and at 32th percentiles for the ESG score. FactSet also

ranked EXPE as a medium risk company. The company is

committed to include qualified candidates with a diversity of

race/ethnicity and gender in the selection of employees. In

addition, Expedia has committed to socially or physically

exclude bullying in the workplace to ensure its employees are

working in a safe environment. Partnered with 3 Degrees,

Expedia has purchased Green-e® climate certified carbon

82%

86%

82%

79%

75%

80%

85%

90%

EXPE TRIP BKNG TCOM

Gross Margin as of Fiscal Year 2019

Gross Margin FY 2019

Page 5

offsets that focus on methane capture, which is 21x more

potent than the Co2 in terms of its global warming impact [21].

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

& INDUSTRY TRENDS

EXPE Third Quarter Earnings

The table below shows EXPE’s analyst’s consensus and actual

EPS and Revenue that were announced on 11/4/2020:

Actual Street

Consensus

Miss/

Beat?

EPS $-0.22 $-0.79 Beat

Revenue $1.50 billion $1.38 billion Beat Source: Benziga

In Expedia Group’s 3Q 2020 report, EXPE reported a better than

expected financial results. The company’s losses from the

impact of COVID-19 moderated in Q3 2020, but gross bookings

and revenues still dropped 68% and 58% respectively year over

year [12]. Vrbo’s revenue was reported better than expected,

while all other revenue segment continue to decline as an effect

from COVID-19.

• EPS: $-0.22 per share, -107% YoY

• Revenue: $1.50 billion, -58% YoY driven by lower demand in

travel. However, comparing with June, the revenue has

declined less since. [20]

• Retail revenue growth -52% YoY:

Though negative, the retail revenue growth rate is less

negative than originally expected. The decline in Retail

segment revenue was offset by the growth at Vrbo. Similar

to Q2, Vrbo remains the bright spot for the company. Vrbo

saw both bookings and revenue increase compared to the

third quarter of 2019. The Management team indicated they

have been trying to push Vrbo globally since many people

are now using it to find nice vacation houses, condos, cabins,

cottages, and apartments.

• B2B revenue growth -72% YoY driven by slower recovery for

corporate travel demand.

• Trivago revenue growth -75% YoY driven by slower

recovery for travel demands.

• Air revenue -87% YoY: with a -74% YoY in plane ticket sold

The Management team’s guidance includes “keenly focus on

driving margin expansion” through resetting the fixed cost base,

reduce variable costs of revenue and improve marketing

efficiency. In addition, the Management team also indicated that

the company is working on “retool and recalibrate all the

algorithms…to optimize for multi-brand instead of brand against

brand“ [12]. Thus, we expect an annualized rate of 18%

technology and content expenses as a percentage of total

revenue from 2021-2024 which is higher than the historical

average of 17% in the technology and content expense [3].

According to the Management team’s guidance on both EPS and

repurchase program, we expect the Company to continue to

suspend its share repurchase program like it announced in Q1

2020 in order to maintain financial liquidity. For this reason, we

expect no share repurchase in 2020 fiscal year and will slowly

buy back the shares as the economy gradually recover from

2021-2024.

Overall, we believe Q3 2020 for Expedia does show some

improvement from last quarter, though it is still hardly the same

level of growth that we’ve seen a year ago. Amid the pandemic

in the U.S. has worsened recently (the total number of COVID-

19 cases topped 92,660 as of 11/4/2020), we expect COVID-19

cases to continue to worsen as we approach to flu season and

colder weather. Therefore, we see the recovery of this industry

to be a long path and expect Expedia to continue to see slow and

gradual recovery.

Decrease in Consumer Spending

Consumer Spending decreased sharply since the start of the

pandemic in March. The graph below shows historical consumer

spending level from 201 through August 2020. Although

consumer spending rebounded back in July 2020, we do not

expect to see quick recovery from here. We project consumer

spending to continue to maintain at current level or even lower

when flu season starts. For this reason, we project an annual

average total revenue growth rate of 18.3% growth rate in 2021

to reflect slow recovery, and 8.5% going forward from 2022

through 2024 [3].

Source: Trading Economics

Moreover, nine percent of Expedia’s revenue comes from

advertising and media that provides a platform for travel

companies to post their advertisement [10]. The chart below

shows the travel industry digital ad spending has decreased 41%

year over year since the pandemic started. The chart also

projects a slow recovery of 2.3%, which is sustained at the 2020

level but way lower than 2019’s growth rate. Therefore, even

Historical Consumer Spending

Page 6

though we do expect the travel industry to recover going

forward, it will take some time for this industry to go back to

what we have seen in 2019.

Source: eMarketer

COVID-19 Impact

According to FactSet, the impact score indicates that Expedia

Group is directly impacted by the COVID-19.

Source: CNBC

Since March when the pandemic started, air travel has been

significantly hit. Even though the travel demand climbs back

after May 2020, the passenger traffic volume is still relatively

low when compared to 2019’s data.

Many Countries Issue Travel Restrictions and Limit Tourism

Businesses Result in Higher Cancellations and Refunds: On

March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the

COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. Ninety percent of

Expedia’s revenue comes from booking trips, hotels, cruises, and

other travel related activities. In addition, many countries have

issued travel restrictions and quarantine orders, as well as

limited operations for hotel and airline suppliers. This has had a

significant impact on the travel industry [10]. Throughout Q2

2020, Expedia’s revenue dropped 15% accordingly. Expedia has

also taken action to cut costs and reserve liquidity. For example,

Expedia Group has deferred some capital expenditures, and

temporarily suspended construction on several real estate

projects [21]. However, in the near term, we expect travel

industry to continue to decline as we expect more COVID-19

cases to be reported going forward in the U.S.

Source: HF Model

MARKETS AND COMPETITION

Travel agencies offer a service that is primarily related to helping

customers find the most economical way to travel. Thus, this

industry has become largely price base. Due to this fact, many

smaller travel websites has been entering into the industry and

making the industry competition fiercer [15]. In addition, the

ease of online services have led to an increasing number of

customers browsing various types of travel websites that are

similar to Expedia Group in order to find the best available price.

However, there are also some other elements that are non-price

competition in this industry such as providing good quality of

service, providing detailed knowledge of destinations and

products, and providing good recommendations to clients and

being part of franchise [15]. From regulatory perspective, this

industry also has low barriers to enter since there are no

obstructive licensing requirements that would otherwise

preclude new travel agents from starting a new business. As a

result, Expedia and other larger travel companies could face

strong competition from the smaller companies who might offer

better services and better algorithm in helping customers find

the best option available.

As a result, we expect more players to enter into this industry

over the next five years. According to IBIS world, over the next

Historical and Projected Travel Industry Digital Ad Spending

2019 vs. 2020 Air Travel Daily Passenger Traffic

Page 7

five years, the travel agencies industry will likely experience

changes to its structure due to increasing competition in this

industry [15].

The chart below shows IBIS World expects this industry to enter

into a slow growth mode going forward:

Source: IBIS World

The chart below shows the major players in this industry and

their respective market shares. The largest player in this industry

is Booking Holding with 66% of the market share, according to

FactSet. Expedia Group takes 14% stake of market share in the

industry, while TripAdvisor takes 18%, and Trip.com takes 3%.

Source: FactSet, data as of FY 2019

Future Growth Prospects: Overall, our view is that the market

uncertainties and weaker economy post COVID-19 could

potentially affect this industry’s performance moving forward.

Therefore, we forecast an average annualized growth rate of

2.5% in CV NOPLAT in our model which is aligned with IBIS

forecasted industry growth rate over the next five years [15].

Peer Comparisons

In the following paragraphs, we conduct a competitive analysis

between Expedia Group, Trip Advisor, Booking Holding, and

Trip.com.

The chart below details firm’s revenue breakdown by segments,

across EXPE’s competitors:

Source: FactSet

Similar to its peers, Expedia holds 90% of its revenue from retail

revenue segment. Booking Holding has only 67% revenue comes

from retail revenue segment, and 25% in B2B revenue segment.

Among competitors, BKNG exhibits a more diverse revenue

stream and larger focus on B2B revenue.

The chart below details firm’s revenue breakdown by regions,

across EXPE’s competitors:

Source: Bloomberg

Compared with its peers, Expedia along with TripAdvisor have

the most balanced exposure to both domestic and international

markets, which could reduce the impacts if the U.S. COVID-19

cases worsen going forward.

14% 3%

66%

18%

Travel Agencies Industry Major Players in U.S. By

Market Share

Expedia Group

TripAdvisor

Booking Holding

Trip.com

90% 89%

67%

90%

5%0%

25%

0%5%

11%7% 10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EXPE TRIP BKNG TCOM

Revenue Breakdown by Segment

Retail B2B Other

57% 53%

10%0%

43%47%

90%100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

EXPE TRIP BKNG TCOM

Revenue Breakdown By Geographics

U.S. International

Netherland / and Europe

China, and

other Asain

Countries

Page 8

Source: FactSet, Data as of Fiscal Year of 2019

Compared to its peers, Expedia has the second highest hotel

reservation revenue breakdown. Expedia also has the second

highest exposure to airline booking. Since Trip.com operates

100% of its business in China and other Asian countries where

the pandemic has recovered faster than the western world, we

expect high exposure to airline services will have less effect on

Trip.com.

Relative Metrics: From the table below, we see TripAdvisor has

the highest EV/EBIDA, and Booking Holding has the highest

return on equity, and operating margin. Expedia has the lowest

return on equity and the second lowest operating margin among

its peers.

Ticker EXPE TRIP BKNG TCOM

EV/EBITDA -31.7x 100.6x 16.0x -451.4x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

ROE -32.5% -8.3% 54.7% -3.1%

Operating

Margin (ttm) -3.3% -5.1% 29.0% 0.0%

Source: Yahoo! Finance, data as of 11/5/2020

• EV/EBITDA Ratio: TripAdvisor has the highest EV/EBITDA

because the majority of its revenue stream comes from

hotel advertisements. Thus, when comparing to other key

players in this industry, they are subject to lesser risk in

cancellation or refund pressure from customers who are

worried about travelling due to COVID-19. On the other

hand, Trip.com faces the most pressure on cancellation on

trips and refund pressure because 90% of its revenue comes

from transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation,

and packaged tour bookings. Hence, Trip.com has the

lowest year-to-date EV/EBITDA.

• Dividend Yield: All the key players in the industry currently

has 0% dividend yield amid the effect from the pandemic.

Many travel industry companies are trying to reserve

financial liquidity, so the key players in this industry has cut

their dividend payout to zero. However, we expect this

dividend payout to slowly recover for the next five year.

Therefore, we project a 6% decline in dividend payout for

2020 fiscal year in our model [3].

• ROE and Operating Margin: Booking Holdings has the

highest ROE and operating margin because it has the least

exposure to the U.S. market where number of COVID-19 is

the highest. In addition, it is also the least exposed to

booking cancellation and refund risk. Therefore, Booking

Holding outperformed the industry in both of these metrics.

Target Market: EXPE has similar target customers as its

competitors. Its target market includes retail customers with

travel needs, corporate travel customers, and travel companies

who need a platform for their advertisement.

Industry Life Cycles: This industry is at mature stage, according

to IBIS World [15]. In addition, it is expected that this industry’s

revenues to decrease at an annualized rate of 4.2% over the next

5 years, which is also the assumption captured in our financial

model. As a result, this industry is expected to slow down

compared to US GDP over the next 5 years. Moreover, this

industry faces heavily price-based competition, even big

companies like Expedia can be replaced by smaller companies

who offer cheaper prices to customers. In addition, companies

in this industry also have high expense ratio that is correlated to

the services they are providing to clients. Therefore, we see

Expedia to increase its cost structure in order to compete with

smaller companies in this industry. This will materially reduce

the company’s profit and reduce the benefit of holding Expedia’s

shares.

On the other hand, this industry is also heavily based on

consumer disposable income and demand in travel. For the

recent activity of COVID-19, we see a sharp decline in the

number of international and domestic trips as various countries

have imposed strict travel regulations and limited the number of

flights. According to IBIS World, the number of international and

domestic trips will decrease 61% and 45% respectively in 2020

[15]. This impact of COVID-19 on the travels are unknown: the

longer the pandemic lives with us, the slower the demand for

traveling would be returned to pre-pandemic level.

Overall, on the relative metrics, we see Booking Holdings

standout in the industry with its least exposure to U.S. and as a

result less cancellation and refund risk.

70%

60%

91%

40%

7%5%

1%

39%

13%

6%8%

0%

10%

29%

0%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

EXPE TRIP BKNG TCOM

Revenue Breakdown by Services

Hotel

Airline

Rental Car

Other (adviertising, experiences & dining, and packaged tour & corporate travel)

Page 9

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Expedia’s business comprises of mostly travel booking

reservations. Therefore, during this unprecedented time, it will

be crucial to monitor the macro environment measured by

unemployment rate, consumer sentiment , and availability of

effective COVID-19 vaccines.

Unemployment Rate

The official unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October as

businesses continue its gradual recovery out of the broad

shutdowns that were imposed following the COVID-19

pandemic. Starting from April 2020, economy hit the peak of

unemployment rate of 14.7% [22]. The unemployment rate has

been trending downwards but remaining high. Even though the

unemployment number is lower than the level in April 2020, the

current unemployment rate is still considerable higher than last

year.

The chart below shows the unemployment rate from 2008 to

October 2020:

Source: CNBC

The GDP growth accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace in the

third quarter of 2020 which was better than the 32% estimate,

and the prior quarter was negative 31.4% growth.

Source: CNBC

Therefore, we believe that we are now in a recession with slow

recovery. If the unemployment rate remained elevated, we

expect to see more people losing jobs and saving more. For this

reason, we believe the travel industry will take longer than

expected to recover.

Consumer Sentiment

Source: Trading Economics

From the graph above, we can see consumer sentiment has

dropped sharply after March 2020. The pandemic has added

tremendous fears in people’s lives, and the recent rising cases of

COVID-19 infection and death rates has further lowered the

demand for people to travel. However, we do see the economy

to rebound back to 2019’s level on the foreseeable future. If the

number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in U.S., we expect

the economy to take longer time than expected to catch up. In

order to track the economy, it is critical to follow consumer

sentiment since this industry is heavily based on how consumers

believe in the market and their confidence on travelling.

Effective COVID-19 Vaccination

We believe the availability of COVID-19 vaccines will improve the

traveling demand in this industry. Vaccine development is a

lengthy and expensive process. It usually takes multiple

candidates and many years to produce a licensed vaccine.

According to the New England Journal of Medicine, when a

pandemic started, the vaccination development time shorten

and increase risk to developers on whether the vaccine will work.

In addition, as the coronavirus is a virus that the world has not

yet seen before until this year, it is difficult to develop effective

vaccines to public. Even if the vaccines are developed, it is

difficult to know how long the immunity will last. Usually, when

a vaccine is licensed and readily available to the public, we will

only have information about the immune response up to 5

months after vaccination. So, it is possible that even after

vaccination, people could soon lose immunity after 5 months or

less. On 11/9/2020, Pfizer has just announced its COVID-19 is

more than 90% effective, but the actual date of availability to

the public is still unknown [22].

Historical Consumer Sentiment

Page 10

Furthermore, we are seeing more health care companies now

rushing the COVID-19 vaccine development. We worried even if

the COVID-19 vaccines are developed over the next few months,

people will be hesitant to get it.

The graph below shows people have become less willing to get

vaccinated across all different groups of people:

Source: Pew Research Center

Therefore, even though we expect COVID-19 vaccine to be

available next year, we are not expecting people to start getting

it until they have seen a majority of people getting vaccinated

and show effectiveness. For this reason, we believe it is critical

to track people’s wiliness in taking COVID-19 vaccines and the

effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. If the vaccines become

available, and people are willing to take it, then we expect more

improvement in the travel industry as people will have less fear

in traveling then.

VALUATION

According to DCF and DDM models, it is estimated that the stock

price target for Expedia Group, Inc. is between $111 - 136

According to Relative Valuation analysis, comparing with EXPE’s

key competitors including TripAdvisor (Ticker: TRIP), Booking

Holdings (Ticker: BKNG),and Trip.com (Ticker: TCOM), the

conclusion is below DCF and DDM models because most of

EXPE’s peers have negative estimate EPS for 2020 - 2021.

Within the industry, the average company’s P/E multiple for

2020 is 9.6x, and 39.1x for 2021. EXPE is currently trading at –

8.4x P/E of 2020 and -263x P/E of 2021, which is undervalued

than its peers [3]. However, given most of EXPE’s peers have

negative P/E multiple, the relative valuation model is not an

accurate presentation of EXPE’s target price. Therefore, in our

target price consideration, we used both DCF and DDM models.

Both DDM and DCF models estimate approximately 16%

potential upside. We believe the potential reward from holding

Expedia Group is less than the risk of prolonged weak economy

around the world.

Therefore, we recommend a No Action rating for Expedia Group,

Inc.

Assumptions

When building the DCF model, several assumptions were made

based on the key economic trends and industry outlook.

CV NOPLAT Growth Rate: In our model, we projected a 2.5% CV

year net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT) as we

expect the economy to be slowly recovering from COVID-19

outbreak. This estimate has also incorporated the forecasted

annual average consumer spending growth rate of 2.5% that we

researched from IBIS World [15].

Retail Revenue Growth Rate from 2021-2024: We forecasted an

annual average growth rate of 9% in the retail revenue which is

lower than the historical annual average growth rate due to slow

recovery in consumer spending. EXPE, as one of the large

players in this industry, will benefit from its well reputation in

travel recommendation once the economy fully recovers from

the pandemic. In addition, the company also has 43% of its

revenue comes from international markets such as Asian market

where the pandemic has been improved and under control. This

will pose a better position compared to its peers as Asian

economy recovers faster than the western countries. Hence, we

forecasted a 9% annual average growth rate, which is 4% lower

than the company’s historical average growth rate.

B2B Revenue Growth Rate from 2021-2024: We forecast this

segment revenue to grow at a rate of 6% lower than the

company’s historical average of 10% as most companies are now

working from home and cutting travel costs. This will result in

less demand in business trips bookings going forward.

Cost and Margin Growth: In general, we projected an average

annual growth rate in gross margin of 82% driven by 8.5%

growth in total revenue going forward from 2022 – 2024. In

2020, we forecasted a 25% decline in total revenue to reflect

sharp decline in travel demand. In 2021 forecast, we projected a

18% growth rate to reflect slow recovery. We expect the

economy continues to stay in slow recovery going forward, thus

we expect total revenue to grow at slower than historical

Page 11

average annual growth rate of 8%. On the other hand, as the

company continues to face slower revenue growth, we expect

the company to cut costs in order to preserve cash. Though we

expect the company will still have to incur necessary cost such

as software maintenance, restructuring, and others, this will not

sum up to a large amount. As a result, we expect lower growth

rate of 9% which is lower than the historical annual average

growth rate in operating expense going forward [3].

Cost of Capital Assumptions: Driven by low interest rate

environment and using Henry Fund estimated equity risk

premium, we calculated a 9.3% cost of equity, after tax cost of

debt of 3.19%, and 7.8% weighted average cost of capital. The

Company has 76% common equity , and 24% debt in its market

value.

Technology & Content Expenses as % of Sales: We forecasted a

3% higher than historical average growth rate of 17% annual

growth rate in technology and content expense. Given the

intense price-based competition in this industry, we expect

there will be needs to upgrade Expedia’s software and algorithm

in order to provide competitive and comprehensive price search

experiences for customers [3].

Earnings Estimates Relative to Consensus: We forecasted a $-

13.9 EPS in 2020, $-0.45 EPS in 2021, $3.88 EPS in 2022. In the

meanwhile, the consensus’s projected a $-8.65 EPS in 2020, $-

0.38 EPS in 2021, and $3.96 EPS in 2022. Our estimates slightly

lower than the consensus because we are more pessimistic on

the economy recovery. We expect not a lot of people will be

willing to get vaccinated when the vaccines are widely available

to public since people are afraid the risk of the vaccine not

working.

Debt Maturity: EXPE has total debt of $9,766mm with average

maturity of 4.67 years. Each year from 2022-2030, the average

debt at maturity is around $1221mm [5]. Average debt rating is

BBB- /Baa3 rated by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. The chart below

shows Expedia debt maturity each year from 2020-2050:

Source: Bloomberg

From all of assumptions above, we estimate a target price of

$111 using DCF/EP, and $136 using DDM models [3]. Particularly,

we believe that DCF model shows more perspectives on EXPE’s

fundamental metrics. While DDM, based on the operating

metrics, shows more growth in EXPE’s dividends. We relied more

on both DCF and DDM since most of EXPE’s peers have negative

P/E multiple causing the target price of EXPE to be negative. To

summarize, the target price for Expedia Group is between $111

to $136 with a potential upside of 16% [3].

KEYS TO MONITOR

Overall, we recommend No Action for Expedia due to its 16%

potential upside driven by slow economy recovery post the

pandemic, steep decline in consumer spending, and intensified

industry competition.

Bull Case $136 : We project a $136 target price in the case when

the economy starts to recover from the COVID-19 outbreak and

demands in travelling services pick up again. For example, in

the next 12 months, effective vaccine could be available to the

public and the majority of people are willing to be vaccinated.

In addition, Expedia’s leading digital platform has positioned

well in the industry, along with its ongoing growth in Chinese

traveling market (faster economy recovery than the U.S.

market).

Bear Case $111: We project a $111 target price in the case

when number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase and

holds back the economy recovery. On the other hand, the

industry faces more price-based competition. If this industry

continues to see more companies entering into the market,

Expedia will have to improve its algorithm that captures better

deals and booking information, which will result in higher

technological cost in order to maintain its current position in

the industry.

REFERENCES

1. Yahoo! Finance

2. Net Advantage, Online Travel Agencies Industry Metrics

3. HF EXPE Financial Model

4. Forbes Website, How Google has become the biggest travel

company

5. Bloomberg Terminal

6. EXPE’s FY 2019 10K

7. FactSet

8. eMarketer, Travel Industry Digital

9. Trading Economics, U.S. Consumer Spending

10. EXPE’s 10Q, 2Q 2020

11. Statista, Travel & Tourism Statistics

Debt Maturity

Page 12

12. PhocusWire, Expedia Group Q3 “Better than Expected” Vrbo

up YoY

13. Hospitality Net, travel spending in U.S. to plunge 45% This

Year

14. The New England Journal of Medicine

15. IBIS World, Travel Agencies in the US

16. Bureau of Economic Analysis

17. MarketWatch

18. NASDAQ.com for Consensus EPS

19. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Expedia Group’s Q3 2020 Results

21. Expedia’s Website

22. CNN Business

23. Fornova, Percentage of Metasearch

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Henry Fund reports are created by graduate students enrolled in

the Applied Securities Management program at the University of

Iowa’s Tippie College of Business. These reports provide

potential employers and other interested parties an example of

the analytical skills, investment knowledge, and communication

abilities of our students. Henry Fund analysts are not registered

investment advisors, brokers or officially licensed financial

professionals. The investment opinion contained in this report

does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of

the aforementioned securities. Unless otherwise noted, facts

and figures included in this report are from publicly available

sources. This report is not a complete compilation of data, and

its accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the University

of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Henry Fund may hold

an investment position in the companies mentioned in this

report.

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