experian automotive quarterly briefing · 2015. 9. 9. · 6.6% 9.0% 10.2% 10.7% 11.0% 14.6% 0% 2%...

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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing

Q2 2015 automotive market share trends and registrations

Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO

2 © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Today’s presentation Part one

What’s on the Road

VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through June 30, 2015

U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through June 30, 2015

Marty Miller

Senior Product Manager, VIO


Q2 Registrations

Market trends

Geographic performance

Manufacturer, make and model share

Demographic overview

Session overview Part two

Brad Smith

Director, Automotive Market Statistics


INSERT

PICTURE

HERE

Vehicles in Operation

What’s on the road today?

Light duty vehicles

Medium and heavy duty vehicles


Vehicles in operation

Q2 2015

255.6 million

What’s on the road today? VIO Light duty vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)


Q2 2014

249.4 million

Net out of operation

10.5 million (4.1%)

Carryover

New vehicle sales

16.7 million

Used vehicle sales

40.3 million

VIO additions/deletions: 27.2 million (10.6%) (out of operation + new sales)

VIO total changes: 67.5 million (26.4%) (used sales + out of operation + new sales)


VIO change by model year (in millions) Q2 2014 to Q2 2015

72.4% of all vehicles within 14 MY (28%)

New Sales 16.7M

Out of Operation



VIO by model year (in millions)

89.2M vehicles within “sweet spot” (MY2004 – 2010)

30.7% of VIO MY2010+

75.8% of VIO MY2001+


90.7% of VIO MY1996+


VIO Sweet Spot by Domestic v Import

Domestic – 52.4% Import – 47.6%



Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)


* = VIO Coverage

*90.7% *91.3% *91.6% *92.0% *92.3%


Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market share Change from Q2 2014

Detroit 3 = 55.8%



VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share Change from Q2 2014



VIO High level segmentation Average age and market share



VIO High level segments on the road market share Change from Q2 2009 to Q2 2015


VIO Volumes



Q2 2015

6.5 million

What’s on the road today? VIO Medium and heavy duty vehicles


Q2 2014

6.2 million

Net out of operation

83 thousand

(1.3%)

Carryover

New vehicle sales

302 thousand

New last 12 months

Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)


VIO by model year (in thousands) Medium and heavy duty vehicles



VIO by GVW class & census regions market share Medium and heavy duty vehicles



VIO Market share of vehicles in operation by make Medium and heavy duty vehicles



INSERT

PICTURE

HERE

U.S. Market Overview

What products are selling?

Who’s buying?

Where is it happening?


3.1 M 3.3 M 3.9 M 4.2 M 4.5 M 4.6 M

9.5 M 9.7 M 9.8 M

10.2 M 10.3 M 10.6 M

. M

2. M

4. M

6. M

8. M

10. M

12. M

14. M

16. M

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total (New/Used) Registration Volume (Q2)

New Used

The second quarter of the calendar year demonstrates consistent year over year growth in new and used vehicle registrations

New & used vehicle registrations

Individual & Commercial buyers

Second quarter of calendar year

Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q2 2015


9.1 M 10.1 M 11.4 M 12.3 M 13.1 M 6.6 M

2.9 M 3.1 M 3.4 M 3.4 M 3.7 M 2.1 M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

% N

ew

Reg

istr

ati

on

s

Individual Organization

Individual registrations account for approximately 75% of total new registration volume

New vehicle registrations

Individual & Commercial buyers

*Year to date (June)



1.9 M 2.4 M 2.7 M 2.9 M 3.0 M 3.1 M

2.3 M 2.5 M

2.9 M 3.2 M 3.4 M 3.5 M

2.4 M

2.6 M

3.0 M 3.3 M

3.6 M 2.4 M

2.5 M

2.8 M

2.9 M 3.1 M

.0 M

2.0 M

4.0 M

6.0 M

8.0 M

10.0 M

12.0 M

14.0 M

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Individual (New) Registration Volume

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Through June 2015, new individual registration volumes are up 2.8% over the previous year


Individual buyers



10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the second quarter of 2015


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



In comparison to Q2 2014, states across the South and West experienced volume gains in Q2 2015


Individual buyers

Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2015



1.6%

1.7%

1.7%

2.0%

2.2%

2.3%

2.4%

2.4%

2.6%

2.7%

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

6.7%

6.8%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

CLEVELAND-AKRON (CANTON)

PHOENIX (PRESCOTT)

TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA)

ATLANTA

MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE

SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE

WASHINGTON DC (HAGRSTWN)

DETROIT

BOSTON (MANCHESTER)

HOUSTON

PHILADELPHIA

DALLAS-FT. WORTH

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

LOS ANGELES

Market Share by Nielsen DMA®

Los Angeles and New York lead all market for new vehicle registrations

DMA® is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license.


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



2.3%

2.3%

2.5%

2.8%

2.9%

3.4%

3.7%

4.4%

5.4%

6.6%

9.0%

10.2%

10.7%

11.0%

14.6%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Pickup - Small

Small Car - Budget

Mid Range Car - Premium

Sport Car - Touring

Van - Mini

SUV - Entry Level

Upscale - Near Luxury

CUV - Premium

SUV - Lower Mid Range

CUV - Mid Range

Mid Range Car - Lower

Mid Range Car - Standard

Pickup - Full Sized

Small Car - Economy

CUV - Entry Level

Segment Share of Registrations

Top 15 Vehicle Segments

10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new registrations in Q2 2015


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



-20.9%

-18.8%

-18.0%

-17.1%

-16.0%

20.3%

21.8%

45.0%

47.7%

50.2%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Small Car - Budget

Upscale - Luxury

Alt Power - Hybrid Car

Sport Car - Premium

Mid Range Car - Premium

CUV - Mid Range

Van - Full Sized

Upscale - Ultra

Sport Car - Upper Premium

Pickup - Small

Q2 2015 % Change from Q2 2014

Small Pickups and Premium Sports Cars took the lead in year over year growth while Upscale Luxury Cars and Small Budget Cars experienced declines


Individual buyers

Minimum 100 units in both

Q2 2014 and Q2 2015



0.5%

0.6%

2.1%

2.1%

2.3%

3.5%

3.8%

4.0%

4.3%

8.2%

11.2%

12.1%

12.2%

15.9%

16.0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Tata

Mitsubishi

Daimler

Mazda

BMW

VW

Subaru

Kia

Hyundai

Nissan

Honda

FCA US LLC

Ford

GM

Toyota

Manufacturer Market Share (Top 15)

Toyota edged out GM to lead Q2 market share among manufacturers. The Detroit 3 took spots 2 through 4 for a combined share of 40.3%


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



2.1%

2.2%

2.2%

2.4%

2.7%

3.0%

3.8%

4.0%

4.3%

5.2%

7.4%

10.0%

10.8%

11.6%

13.5%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Mazda

Lexus

Volkswagen

Ram

Dodge

GMC

Subaru

Kia

Hyundai

Jeep

Nissan

Honda

Chevrolet

Ford

Toyota

Brand Market Share (Top 15)

Of the 64 brands with new individual registrations in Q2 2015, the top 7 brands account for two thirds of a new registrations


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



1.41%

1.50%

1.56%

1.57%

1.66%

1.70%

1.82%

1.98%

2.31%

2.34%

2.37%

2.44%

2.44%

2.53%

2.54%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Nissan Rogue

Ford Fusion

Ram 1500

Jeep Wrangler

Chevrolet Equinox

Nissan Altima

Ford Escape

Toyota RAV4

Ford F150

Toyota Corolla

Honda Accord

Honda CR-V

Honda Civic

Toyota Camry

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Model Market Share

Chevrolet Silverado 1500 edged the Toyota Camry by 87 units to lead Q2 2015 market share


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



Exotic 0.05%

Luxury 12.28%

Non-Luxury 87.67%

Vehicle Class Share

Non-Luxury brands accounted for nearly 90% of all new registration in Q2


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



51.7%

36.6%

11.2% 0.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Market Share by Drive Type

93.8%

2.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.04%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Market Share by Fuel Type

Front wheel drive vehicles are the most common new vehicle drive type and while gasoline vehicle account for more than 90% of all new vehicles


Individual buyers

Q2 2015


Individual buyers

Q2 2015



3.7%

7.0% 6.8% 6.8%

15.8%

17.9%

13.5%

8.5%

19.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

New Vehicle Buyer Distribution by Age

Individuals aged 40 to 69 exhibit nearly 50% of the new vehicle purchasing power in the U.S.


Individual buyers

2015 Year to Date (May)



16.3%

10.2%

19.0%

16.9%

9.9%

9.0%

8.9%

9.7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

$1,000 - $34,999

$35,000 - $49,999

$50,000 - $74,999

$75,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $124,999

$125,000 - $174,999

$175,000+

Unknown/ Unmatched

New Vehicle Buyer Distribution by Income

Individuals with incomes between $50 and $100k have been the most active buying populations year to date


Individual buyers




6.0% 4.9%

10.7%

64.7%

13.7%

6.6% 5.6%

12.2%

62.3%

13.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

African American Asian Hispanic Non-HispanicWhite

Unknown/Unmatched

New Vehicle Buyer Distribution by Ethnicity

2014 YTD 2015 YTD

African-Americans, Asians, and Hispanics all experienced increases in new vehicle registrations over 2014


Individual buyers




Light duty market size grows by 6.2M vehicles over the last 12 months as market share has grown in the CUV and Small Car segments over the last 6 years.

We continue to see the aftermarket sweet spot decline in volume and the rolling average vehicle age stays flat as new vehicle sales continues to increase.

Through June 2015, new individual registrations are up 2.8% over 2014

Led by the Entry Level CUV segment, the top 10 vehicle segments account for nearly 80% of new registration volume

Buyers aged 40-69 exhibit nearly 50% of the new vehicle purchasing power in the U.S.

African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics all experienced year over year increases in new vehicle buying

In summary


Today’s presentation

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experian automotive quarterly briefing · 2015. 9. 9. · 6.6% 9.0% 10.2% 10.7% 11.0% 14.6% 0% 2%...

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