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©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public. Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing First quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO Experian Automotive

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Page 1: Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · PDF fileExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing ... Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, ... Builders) Plumbing Heating and

©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks ofExperian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.

Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing First quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations

Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO

Experian Automotive

Page 2: Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · PDF fileExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing ... Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, ... Builders) Plumbing Heating and

2©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

Today’s presentationPart one

Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar

Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download

Questions? Contact us at [email protected]

What’s on the Road

VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through March 31, 2016

U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through March 31, 2016

Marty Miller

Senior Product Manager, VIO

Page 3: Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · PDF fileExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing ... Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, ... Builders) Plumbing Heating and

3©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

Q1 2016 Registrations

Market trends

Geographic performance

Manufacturer, make and model share

Loyalty conquest and defection

Session overviewPart two

Brad Smith

Director, Automotive Market Statistics

Page 4: Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · PDF fileExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing ... Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, ... Builders) Plumbing Heating and

4©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 276.6M

Light Duty

Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans

Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3

Medium & Heavy Duty

Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses,

RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors

GVW Class 4 - 8

Power Sports

Motorcycles, All-Terrain,

Utility Task, Snowmobiles

Page 5: Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · PDF fileExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing ... Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, ... Builders) Plumbing Heating and

5©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

Vehicles in

Operation

What’s on the road today?

Light duty vehicles

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Vehicles in operation

Q1 2016

259.3 million

(2.5%)

What’s on the road today?VIO Light duty vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Vehicles in operation

Q1 2015

253 million

Net out of operation

11.1 million (4.3%)

Carryover

New vehicle sales

17.4 million

Used vehicle sales

40.6 million

VIO additions/deletions: 28.5 million (11%)(new sales + out of operation)

VIO total changes: 69.1 million (26.6%)(used sales + new sales + out of operation)

Page 7: Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing · PDF fileExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing ... Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, ... Builders) Plumbing Heating and

7©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

VIO change by model year (in millions)Q1 2015 to Q1 2016

New Sales 17.4M

Out of Operation

11.1M

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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8©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

VIO change by model year (in millions)Q1 2012 to Q1 2016

Out of Operation

50.1M

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

New Sales 64.3M

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9©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.

These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.

Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes to the Sweet Spot can have implications to those that service it.

“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.

“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.

Aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined

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VIO by model year (in millions) 86M vehicles within “Sweet Spot”

(MY2005 – 2011)

Pre-SweetSpot

Post-SweetSpot

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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11©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

Sweet Spot changingVehicle segment type

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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VIO Top 20 segments on the road market shareChange from Q1 2016

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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Trend by Select Segment ChangesTrend Hybrid/Electric Vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period)Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market shareTrend from Q1 2013 to Q1 2016

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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VIO VocationHow light duty commercial vehicles are used

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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VIO Vocation – Top 10 makes and 25 modelsLight duty vehicles as of Q1 2016(excludes passenger car rental / leasing)

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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VIO Vocation – Top 5 vocations within age groupLight duty vehicles as of Q1 2016

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

2017-2012 2004 & Older2011-2005

Religious Organizations

Plumbing Heating and Air-Conditioning Contractors

Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors

Landscaping Services

New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders)

Plumbing Heating and Air-Conditioning Contractors

Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors

Legislative Bodies

Commercial and Institutional Building Construction

Site Preparation Contractors

Offices of Other Holding Companies

New Car Dealers

Other Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental and Leasing

Commercial and Institutional Building Construction

Legislative Bodies

(excludes passenger car rental / leasing)

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19©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

Vehicles in

Operation

What’s on the road today?

Medium and heavy duty vehicles

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20©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

What’s on the road today? VIO by model yearMedium and heavy duty vehicles

30% of VIOMY2010+

67.1% of VIOMY2001+

83.3% of VIOMY1996+

Vehicles in operation

Q1 2016

6.9

million

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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VIO by GVW class & engine manufacturer shareMedium and heavy duty vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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Top VIO Market share of Vocation – High levelMedium and heavy duty vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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U.S. Market Overview

What products are selling?

Who’s buying?

Where is it happening?

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Growth continues: New vehicle registrations are up 7.5% in the first quarter of 2016

New passenger car / light truck registrations through March 2016

3.93.8

3.7

2.3

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.83.9

4.0

4.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

New

Reg

istr

ati

on

Vo

lum

e (

Millio

ns)

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15.9%

31.0%

36.9%

22.8%

10.9%

3.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Commercial/Taxi

Dealer Manufacturer

Government

Other

Rental/Lease

Retail

% Change from Q1 2015

Q1 ‘15 vs. Q1 ‘16

Growth in fleet based sales categories is out pacing retail

Total new vehicle registrations through March 2016

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10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the first quarter of 2016

New vehicle registrations

Individual buyers

Q1 2016

Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016

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An increasing number of states are experiencing declines in new vehicle registration as compared to Q1 2015

New vehicle registrations

Individual buyers

Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2016

Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016

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1.53%

1.74%

1.80%

1.90%

2.15%

2.34%

2.35%

2.41%

2.50%

2.68%

2.76%

2.82%

2.84%

7.00%

7.16%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

ORLANDO-DAYTONA BCH-MELBRN

PHOENIX (PRESCOTT)

TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA)

ATLANTA

WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN)

BOSTON (MANCHESTER)

MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE

SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE

HOUSTON

PHILADELPHIA

DETROIT

CHICAGO

DALLAS-FT. WORTH

LOS ANGELES

NEW YORK

Market Share by Nielsen DMA®

New York and Los Angeles lead all markets for new vehicle registrations

DMA® is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license.

New vehicle registrations

Individual buyers

Q1 2016

Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016

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2.15%

2.33%

2.40%

2.45%

2.76%

2.88%

3.31%

5.50%

5.66%

6.44%

8.48%

9.48%

9.86%

11.35%

15.09%

Small Car - Budget

Mid Range Car - Premium

Pickup - Small

Sport Car - Touring

Van - Mini

SUV - Entry Level

Upscale - Near Luxury

CUV - Premium

SUV - Lower Mid Range

CUV - Mid Range

Mid Range Car - Lower

Mid Range Car - Standard

Small Car - Economy

Pickup - Full Sized

CUV - Entry Level

Top 15 Vehicle Segments

Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in Q1 2016

Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016

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-25.2%

-11.5%

-11.4%

-11.4%

-10.9%

7.5%

9.8%

10.3%

15.6%

24.7%

Upscale - Luxury

Alt Power - Hybrid Car

Sport Car - Premium

Upscale - Near Luxury

Upscale - Ultra

SUV - Lower Mid Range

Van - Full Sized

SUV - Large

CUV - Entry Level

CUV - Premium

Q1 2016 % Change from Q1 2015

CUVs and SUV led in year over year growth, while luxury, premium and hybrid segments declined from compared to Q1 2015

Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016

Minimum 5,000 registrations

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0.65%

0.71%

1.90%

2.04%

2.40%

3.15%

3.90%

3.95%

4.06%

8.77%

11.27%

11.91%

12.19%

15.63%

16.44%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Tata

Mitsubishi

Mazda

Daimler

BMW

VW

Hyundai

Kia

Subaru

Nissan

Honda

FCA US LLC

Ford

Toyota

GM

Share of Individual Registrations

Top 15 Manufacturers (Q1 2016)

General Motors outsold Toyota by 25k units to lead Q1 2016 market share

Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016

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2.00%

2.07%

2.34%

2.45%

2.66%

3.17%

3.90%

3.95%

4.06%

5.34%

7.90%

10.15%

10.99%

11.54%

12.74%

Mercedes-Benz

BMW

Lexus

Dodge

Ram

GMC

Hyundai

Kia

Subaru

Jeep

Nissan

Honda

Chevrolet

Ford

Toyota

Share of Individual Registrations

Top 15 Makes (Q1 2016)

Toyota outsold Ford by over 38k units to lead Q1 2016 brand market share

Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016

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1.36%

1.48%

1.49%

1.63%

1.68%

1.83%

1.83%

2.17%

2.17%

2.19%

2.26%

2.47%

2.60%

2.74%

2.86%

Chevrolet Malibu

Ford Fusion

Nissan Sentra

Nissan Altima

Nissan Rogue

Ram 1500

Ford Escape

Toyota Camry

Toyota RAV4

Toyota Corolla

Honda CR-V

Honda Accord

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Honda Civic

Ford F150

Share of New Individual Registrations

Top 15 Models

9 of the top 15 models are produced by Asian based manufacturers

Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016

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©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks ofExperian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.

Loyalty, Conquest & Defection

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Consistent view of activity across all buyers

Captures additions to household fleets

Looks for loyalty first and foremost

Census coverage, findings applicable to dealers of all sizes

Most timely loyalty metric available

Requires an owned vehicle to be registered to another owner

► Creates additional lag in reporting

Registration must occur within 90 days of new vehicle purchase

► Some off lease used vehicles missed due to turn time

Does not capture additions to household fleet

Smaller population, finding not applicable to small dealers

Overview of Loyalty Methodologies

Household Disposal

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69.6%

62.4%

29.7%

24.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lo

yalty R

ate

Household Loyalty Trends

Manufacturer Make Model Lender

Household Loyalty Rates Continue Climbing

Household Methodology

New to New

Through January 2016

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65.6%

58.3%

26.6%

22.0%

62.0%

53.9%

21.0%

14.6%

56.5%

44.6%

14.1%

4.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Manufacturer Make Model Lender

New Certified Used Non-Certified Used

New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed buy Certified Used and Non-Certified Used

Household Methodology

February 2015 – January 2016

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53.7%

56.1%

56.3%

58.9%

61.2%

62.2%

63.3%

63.5%

65.4%

67.1%

67.9%

68.5%

69.0%

69.6%

70.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Tata

Porsche

VW

BMW

Hyundai

Nissan

Honda

Kia

Daimler

FCA US LLC

Toyota

Subaru

Tesla

GM

Ford

Manufacturer Loyalty Rate (Household)

Manufacturer Loyalty Rates

Ford led all manufacturers with 70.3% returning households remaining loyal to the manufacturer

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

Minimum 1,000 RTM

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56.1%

58.9%

59.0%

59.7%

60.4%

61.2%

61.4%

61.7%

63.4%

63.5%

64.2%

65.6%

68.5%

69.0%

69.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Porsche

Ram

BMW

Lincoln

Lexus

Hyundai

Honda

Nissan

Chevrolet

Kia

Toyota

Mercedes-Benz

Subaru

Tesla

Ford

Make Loyalty Rate (Household)

Make Loyalty Rates (Top 15)

Ford led all brands with 69.4% of returning owners buying another Ford vehicle

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

Minimum 1,000 RTM

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40.2%

40.3%

40.5%

41.2%

41.7%

42.0%

42.0%

42.0%

42.2%

42.7%

43.9%

46.8%

46.8%

48.3%

69.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Hyundai Genesis

Mercedes-Benz S Class

Mercedes-Benz C Class

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Subaru Forester

Lexus RX350

Subaru Outback

Cadillac SRX

Kia Soul

Cadillac Escalade ESV

Ford F150

Ram 1500

Lincoln MKZ

Land Rover Range Rover

Tesla Model S

Model Loyalty Rates (Household)

Model Loyalty Rates (Top 15)

Tesla Model S leads all models with 69.1% model loyalty rate

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

Minimum 2,000 RTM

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When loyalty does not exist a conquest / defection relationship is present

Conquest is assessed against the purchased vehicle / vehicle attribute

Defection is assessed against the owned vehicle / vehicle attribute

Conquest / defection ratio is the number of conquests divided by the number of

defections

Conquest / defection net is the number of conquests less the number of

defections

Conquest / Defection Metrics

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0.58

0.72

0.76

0.78

0.82

0.83

1.05

1.17

1.17

1.27

1.40

1.51

1.55

1.79

1.82

1.90

3.72

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

GM

Mitsubishi

Ford

Toyota

Volvo

Honda

Nissan

Hyundai

FCA US LLC

VW

BMW

Mazda

Daimler

Kia

Tata

Porsche

Subaru

Manufacturer Conquest / Defection Ratio

For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly four new customers from other brands

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM

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0.40

0.61

0.66

0.73

0.78

0.82

0.94

1.03

1.16

1.17

1.27

1.42

1.51

1.57

1.79

1.82

3.72

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Dodge

Chevrolet

Chrysler

Toyota

Ford

Honda

Volkswagen

Nissan

GMC

Hyundai

Lexus

BMW

Mazda

Mercedes-Benz

Kia

Jeep

Subaru

Make Conquest / Defection Ratio

Small and mid-size brands are gaining owners while the larger, more established brands struggle to maintain their owner base

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM

Top brands based on RTM

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0.60

0.62

0.67

0.71

0.73

0.73

0.78

0.90

0.90

0.99

1.06

1.15

1.25

1.34

1.38

1.50

1.78

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

Ford Focus

Toyota Camry

Honda Odyssey

Honda Accord

Honda Civic

Toyota Corolla

Nissan Altima

Ford F150

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Hyundai Sonata

Toyota Tacoma

Toyota Highlander

Ford Fusion

Chevrolet Equinox

Ford Escape

Honda CR-V

Toyota RAV4

Model Conquest / Defection Ratio

Small and mid-size utility vehicles are gaining owners while trucks and sedan lose

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM

Top models based on RTM

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Luxury Vehicle Market Analysis

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1.19%

2.07%

2.34%

2.00%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mark

et S

ha

re –

New

In

div

idu

al R

eg

istr

ations

Luxury Market Share

Audi BMW Lexus Mercedes-Benz

Import Luxury Market Share

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56.0%

64.9%

62.4%

66.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Make L

oyalty R

ate

Make Loyalty Trend

Audi BMW Lexus Mercedes-Benz

Import Luxury Loyalty

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32,560

25,866

21,851

32,019

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Conquest / Defection Net

2.01

1.42

1.27

1.57

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Conquest / Defection Ratio

Import Luxury Conquest and Defection Metrics

Household Methodology

New to New

February 2015 – January 2016

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Light duty vehicles in operation increased to over 259 million units.

The aftermarket Sweet Spot will continue to decline for another year, when an increase will be met with change in vehicle segments.

Ford dominates the commercial light duty vehicle market.

Rental and Leasing is the top vocation in the United States.

Q1 new vehicle registrations are up for the 7th consecutive year and up 7.5% over 2015.

Entry level CUV segment was up 15.6% over 2015 to capture 15.09% of the market.

General Motors outsold Toyota by 25k units to lead Q1 2016 market share among individual buyers.

Ford led all manufacturers with a loyalty rate of 70.3%.

Subaru led all brands and manufacturers with a conquest to defection ratio of 3.72.

Summary of Today’s Presentation

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