experience with modelling of runoff formation processes at basins of different scales using data of...

Experience with modelling of runoff Experience with modelling of runoff formation processes at basins of formation processes at basins of

different scales using data different scales using data of of representative and experimental representative and experimental

watershedswatersheds

Olga Semenova

State Hydrological InstituteSt. Petersburg, Russia

1. Models need parameters values

2. The problem of heterogeneityExample: infiltration coefficient of the upper soil layer

3. Idealized representative slope

4. The problem of calibration

IntroductionIntroduction

Areal extent, m2 Cv

10-3 (filtration tube) 10

10-1 (field filtration device) 1

102 (sprinkling-machine) 0.1

105 (elementary watershed, estimation in inverse way by observations of precipitation and surface runoff)

0

Objectives:Objectives:

to demonstrate that using observational data of small jointly with the appropriate modelling algorithms gives the possibility to avoid the calibration procedure and transfer estimated parameters (without change for a given landscape zone) to other basins, including those with scarce availability of information.

Main principles of model developmentMain principles of model development

• Universality (response to PUB challenge)

• Balance between simple solutions and

adequate description of natural processes

• Apriori estimation and systematization of

main parameters (without calibration for

any new object)

• Routine forcing data

Deterministic Modelling Hydrological System Deterministic Modelling Hydrological System (DMHS or model “Hydrograph”, by Prof. Yu.B. Vinogradov)(DMHS or model “Hydrograph”, by Prof. Yu.B. Vinogradov)

Slope transformationof surface flow

Initial surfacelosses

Infiltration andsurface flow

Heat dynamicsin soil

Snow coverformation

Heat energy

Interception

Heat dynamicsin snow

Snow melt andwater yield

EvaporationWater dynamics in soil

Channel transformation

Runoff at basin outlet

Underground flow

Transformation of underground flow

PrecipitationRain Snow

DMHS featuresDMHS features•DistributedDistributed •Calculating interval – 24-hour or lessCalculating interval – 24-hour or less•Forcing dataForcing data – – precipitation, temperature and humidityprecipitation, temperature and humidity•OutputOutput – – runoff hydrograph, water balance elements, state variables of soil and runoff hydrograph, water balance elements, state variables of soil and

snow coversnow cover

DMHS key conceptsDMHS key concepts

•Concept of runoff formation complexes

•Concept of runoff

elements (see for details Vinogradov 2003, 2008)

DMHS parametersDMHS parameters• Soil properties

• Vegetation cover properties

• Slope surface

• Underground water

• Climate parameters

The spatial-computational The spatial-computational

schematization of the basinschematization of the basin

Suntar-Khayata

Lower Base

SuntarVostochnaya

meteorological stationrepresentative point

Runoff formation complexes

"golets" areamountain tundrasparse mountainlarsh forest

What do we need from small watersheds?What do we need from small watersheds?

• Observational data on representative basins to calibrate some model parameters

• Evaluation and systematization of the representative landscape properties (i.e. apriori assessment of model parameters)

•Understanding of the processes and its clear and proved explanation

•Understanding of the models and their objective and active evaluation

Mutual interaction between modellers and experimentalists

What do we need from experimentalists?What do we need from experimentalists?

Study objectsStudy objects

****

******Nizhnedevitskaya

Water Balance Station

Valday experimental station(research is still in progress)

Mogot experimental plot

Kolyma Water Balance Station

Suntar-Hayata range geophysical station

•Mild CLIMATE •Extreme

•Plain, hilly RELIEF •Mountainous

•Steppe LANDSCAPE •Tundra, taiga

•Seasonal PERMAFROST •Continuous

observed simulated

01.01.198401.07.198301.01.198301.07.198201.01.198201.07.1981

T,

gra

d C

20

15

10

5

0

PRELIMINARY RESULTSPRELIMINARY RESULTSI. I. Nizhnedevitskaya water balance stationNizhnedevitskaya water balance station

observed simulated

01.01.198401.09.198301.05.198301.01.198301.09.198201.05.198201.01.1982

T,

gra

d C

15

10

5

SOIL SOIL TEMPERATURETEMPERATURE

0.2 m0.2 m

0.8 m0.8 m

SNOW CHARACTERISTICSSNOW CHARACTERISTICS

ob served s imu l ated

01-03-198301-02-198301-01-198301-12-198201-11-1982

m

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

Snow height at Nizhnedevitskaya observational stationSnow height at Nizhnedevitskaya observational station

SOIL MOISTURESOIL MOISTURE

S I M U L A T E D O B S E R V E D

01.198401.198301.198201.198101.198001.1979

mm

400

350

300

250

200

150

Stream Dolgy, area 2.51 kmStream Dolgy, area 2.51 km22, content of moisture in 1-m layer, content of moisture in 1-m layer

RUNOFFRUNOFF

OBSERVED CALCULATED

01.0101.1101.0901.0701.0501.0301.0101.1101.0901.0701.0501.03

m3/s

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

SIMULATED OBSERVED

01.0101.1201.1101.1001.0901.0801.0701.0601.0501.0401.0301.0201.0101.1201.1101.1001.0901.0801.0701.0601.0501.0401.0301.0201.01

m3/s

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Sosna river at Elec, Sosna river at Elec, area area 1630016300 km km22

Devica river at Tovarnya, Devica river at Tovarnya, area area 103103 km km22

II. Kolyma water balance stationII. Kolyma water balance station

SOIL SOIL TEMPERATURETEMPERATURE

0.4 m0.4 m

0.8 m0.8 m

OBSERVED S I MULATED

01.197810.197707.197704.197701.197710.197607.1976

gra

d,

C

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

OBSERVED S I MULATED

10.197904.197910.197804.197810.197704.197710.1976

gra

d,

C

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

RUNOFFRUNOFF

simulated observed

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01


Q [m /sec]

Т

1977 1978

1979 1980

3

Yuzhny stream, area Yuzhny stream, area 0.270.27 km km22

Detrin at Vakhanka river mouthDetrin at Vakhanka river mouth, , area area 56305630 km km22

600

400

200

0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII

1000

500


800

600

400

200


800

600

400

200


Q

T

1977 1978

1979 1980

simulated observed

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.06

0.04

0.02


0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01


Q [m /sec]

Т

1977 1978

1979 1980

3

Kolyma at KolymskoyeKolyma at Kolymskoye, , basin area basin area 526000526000 km km22

30000

20000

10000

0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII

20000

15000

10000

5000


20000

15000

10000

5000


Q

T

1977 1978

1979 1980

1977 1978

1979 1980

simulated observed

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.06

0.04

0.02


0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01


Q [m /sec]

Т

1977 1978

1979 1980

3

SuntarSuntar at Sakharynia river mouthat Sakharynia river mouth, ,

area area 76807680 km km22 1000

800

600

400

200


1000

800

600

400

200


400

300

200

100


1500

1000

500


Q

T

1959 1960

1961 1962

1959 1960

1961 1962

simulated observed

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.06

0.04

0.02


0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01


Q [m /sec]

Т

1977 1978

1979 1980

3

III. Suntar-Hayata range experimental stationIII. Suntar-Hayata range experimental station

Yana at Dgangky, Yana at Dgangky, area area 216000216000 km km22

8000

6000

4000

2000


6000

4000

2000


6000

4000

2000


6000

4000

2000


Q

T

1970 1971

1972 1973

1970 1971

1972 1973

simulated observed

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.06

0.04

0.02


0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01


Q [m /sec]

Т

1977 1978

1979 1980

3

Nelka at Mogot, area Nelka at Mogot, area 30.830.8 km km22

simulated observed

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.06

0.04

0.02


0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02


0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01


Q [m /sec]

Т

1977 1978

1979 1980

3

III. Mogot experimental plotIII. Mogot experimental plot

4

3

2

1


6

5

4

3

2

1


4

3

2

1


6

4

2


Q, m3/s

T

1979 1980

1981 1982

1979 1980

1981 1982

Katyryk at TokoKatyryk at Toko, , basin area basin area 40.240.2 km km22

Рассчитанный Наблюденный

10

5


5


10

5


10

5


Q

Т

1981 1982

1983 1984

Timpton at Nagorny, area Timpton at Nagorny, area 613613 km km22

100

50


100

50


250

200

150

100

50


200

150

100

50


Q

T

1977 1978

1979 1980

1977 1978

1979 1980

Uchur at Chyul’buUchur at Chyul’bu,,

area area 108000108000 km km22

15000

10000

5000


15000

10000

5000


10000

5000


15000

10000

5000


Q

T

1981 1982

1983 1984

1981 1982

1983 1984

Statistics on observed vs simulated flow (averaged Statistics on observed vs simulated flow (averaged for all basins in Eastern Siberia)for all basins in Eastern Siberia)

Daily Year

Nash-Sutcliffe 0.78 0.93

Relative error (in absolute value)

36 % 10 %

ConclusionsConclusionsThe results aim to demonstrate the possibility of a single

hydrological model application for: (1)runoff simulations at large-scale basins, as well as for fine

time step representation of individual hydrological process at the local scale;

(2)simulation at various landscape and climate zones with different driving processes.

The observations should be carried in tight interaction with the development of hydrological models, i.e. the experiments and observations schemes and components are to be coordinated in order to be used in the adoption or rejection of current hydrological theories and assumptions.

Desired futureDesired future

REFERENCES (in English)REFERENCES (in English)

• Vinogradov, Yu.B., 2003a, River Runoff Modeling in Hydrological Cycle, edited by I.A. Shiklomanov, in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, UK, [http://www.eolss.net]

• Vinogradov, Yu.B., 2003b, Runoff Generation and Storage in Watershed in Hydrological Cycle, edited by I.A. Shiklomanov, in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, UK, [http://www.eolss.net]

experience with modelling of runoff formation processes at basins of different scales using data of...

Documents

basin area

km2 kolyma

water balance elements

representative basins

data of representative

km2 statistics

km2 timpton

km2 uchur