EXPLORING VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE IN LAND TENURE SYSTEMS AFTER HURRICANES MITCH AND IVAN

Grenville Barnes and Gerald RiverstoneUniversity of Florida

February 2008

Structure of Presentation

• Introduction

• Conceptual Framework

• Grenada (Ivan)

• Honduras (Mitch)

• Issues and Lessons

• Conclusions

Approach of UN-Habitat Study

• Pro-poor land perspective

• utilization of concepts of vulnerability and resilience as applied to natural disasters

• Include focus on institutional and land governance • Seek opportunities for long-term improvement to land

tenure and administration following natural disasters

[Linnerooth-Bayer et al. 2005]

- +

Longterm

Midterm

Short-term

Root Causes

DynamicPressures

UnsafeConditions

VULNERABILITY RESILIENCE

Multiple spatial scales

Natural Disasters and Vulnerability• Natural disaster = hazard + vulnerability

• Vulnerability = the level of difficulty to “anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of natural hazard” (Blaikie et al, 1994)

• A product of: concentrated wealth and power, unsound development models, poverty, uncontrolled land- use and urbanization, environmental degradation, and population growth

• Also expressed as marginalization: a cycle of social and environmental

degradation (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987)

DynamicPressures

RootCauses

UnsafeConditions

• poverty• unequal land distribution• mountainous terrain• weak meso-level governance• prioritizing agro-exports• age structure

• deforestation• rapid urbanization• frequency of disasters

VULNERABILITY

[adapted from Blaikie et al 1994, p. 23]

• Fragile livelihoods• informal settlement• settlement in high risk zones

=

JR

Resilience - Focus on Change Emerging research focus on change (e.g. Land

Use/Land Cover Change; Climate Change Science) Sustainability = assumes stability and explains change Resilience = assumes change and explains stability (Folke, Colding & Berkes 2003)

Social-Ecological Systemdisturbance

perturbation

surprise change

crisis

uncertainty

shock

variation

• Cyclical• Random• Non-linear

Measuring Resilience Amount of change that a system can undergo while still

maintaining the same structure and function System’s ability to self-organize

Degree to which the system is capable of learning and

adapting (Carpenter et al 2001)

Definition of social-ecological system

- components

- relationships

- innovation

(Cumming et al 2005)

• poverty alleviation• land reform• improve governance• food sovereignty

• Reforestation• Rural employment

RESILIENCE

• Diversification of livelihoods• Tenure ladder• Resettlement

=

** Key elements: Adaptation, Innovation, Persistence, feedbacks

Mid-termLong-term Short-term

TOWARD GREATER RESILIENCE

Central America and the Caribbean

Location of Honduras and Grenada Case Studies

Grenada

• Southeastern Caribbean• Second-smallest nation in

hemisphere (344 sq. kms)• Includes islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique • Population = 103,000 (2005)• Capital: St. George’s• Economy: tourism, services,

agriculture, remittances

• WBI Governance Score……. +0.17• Population below poverty line…… 28%• HDI Rank (2007)…….. 82 / 177• IFC Rank for Registering Property…. 145

Hurricane Ivan in Grenada

• September 2004• Primarily a wind event • Devastated housing stock• Major impacts to agricultural

sector• Losses 2 x GDP

Grenada: Contributors to Vulnerability

• Aging rural population• Dependence on two main cash crops –

nutmeg and cocoa• Informal settlements• ‘family land’ tenure• Tenure insecurity (re. donors)

Building Resilience• Diversification of livelihoods

• Social Networks

• Tenure ladder (intermediate mechanisms)

Honduras

• Second-largest nation in Central America (112,000 sq. km)

• Population (2003) 7.0 million• Capital: Tegucigalpa • Urban population: 54.5%

Mountainous (16% arable land)• GDP $7 million• Second poorest country in

hemisphere• HDI Rank (2007) 115 / 177• % below poverty line 64%• Major exports: coffee, bananas

Latter half 20th Century:

Agroexport model promoted by transnational

companies, national elite, and international financial institutions.

Farmers displaced

to marginal lands:hill slopes and the agricultural frontier, leading to deforestation and environmental degradation

Large-scale rural to urban migration: informal settlements on steep slopes (e.g. Tegucigalpa) and flood-prone areas (e.g. San Pedro Sula)

RURAL AND URBANPOVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION:

VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS

Honduras:Social-ecological vulnerability and the

agroexport development model

Hurricane Mitch in Honduras

- October 26 – November 1 1998- Worst disaster in W. hemisphere in

200 years- Intense rainfall event: floods,

landslides- 14,000 dead/missing in Honduras- 220,000 houses damaged or

destroyed- devastated infrastructure (e.g. 33

bridges destroyed 75 bridges damaged)

- >$3 billion in losses- Massive international aid effort

Rio Choluteca

Landslide

Temporary lake

October 31

North

Landslides and urbanization in Tegucigalpa

From Campos, SICA/CRRH

Resettlement projects

• Tens of thousands displaced in Tegucigalpa by flooding and mudslides

• Spent up to 4Y in shelters• Shortage of urban land outside hazard zones• Large-scale projects (e.g. Ciudad Espana)• Livelihood scarcity, long travel times• Some return to hazard areasLessons learned:• Need for secondary rights on adjacent

properties• Temporary on-site housing allows for greater

beneficiary involvement• Need to contemplate livelihoods• 10 years conditional ownership too long• Need room for expansion/extended family

Source: IFRCRCS (2002). Rebuilding after Hurricane Mitch: Housing reconstruction in Hondurasand Nicaragua

The Ciudad España project

Disaster Management and social mobilization

• In Honduras, CODELs (Local Disaster Committees) created after Mitch

• Reponse to corruption, dependency• Transparency and broad participation: incl.

women, youth.• First responsible for food distribution• Became empowered: social audits,

municipal budgets, disaster planning. • Challenged political structures• Contributed to land takeover (CREM) in

Aguan Valley• Formed networks at regional level

Lessons learned:• Promotes good governance from the

demand side• Basic tasks provide precedents for larger

efforts

Photos: Paul Jeffrey/CCD.

Post-disaster peasant land occupation

• May 2000 occupation of former Regional Military Training Centre (CREM)

• 700 families united by the Aguán Farmers’ Movement (~3000 people)

• First peasant occupation organized entirely by civil society – bolstered by post-disaster local organizations

• Families organized in cooperatives• Had support from INA Director• 2001 congressional decree ordered

regularization/transfer• Some titles awarded, but still waiting

for remainder.

The launching of the Global Campaign for Agrarian Reform at the former site of the Regional Center for Military Training (CREM) in Honduras (photo: FIAN)

Agroecological methods and Hurricane Mitch

• Study by Holt-Gimenez (2001)• Based on Campesino a Campesino

plots and neighboring plots of conventional ag.

• Methods include, mulching, cover crops, intercropping, agroforestry, no-burn methods, terracing, etc…

• Favorable results for topsoil retention, depth to humidity, severe erosion

Lessons learned:- Agroecological methods increased

resilience to extreme weather event- Secure tenure vital to intensive

approaches- Can be seen as disaster mitigation

A look at the bigger picture:

Land distribution pre- and post-Mitch/AML

From Barham, B., S. Boucher, P. Useche (2002). The Long and Grinding Road of Inegalitarian Agrarian Structure in Honduras: Impacts of Market Reforms and Hurricane Mitch. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/LongandGrinding.pdf

• Based on a panel data set from four Honduran departments (1994-2001):

• Gini coefficent changed from 0.71 to 0.76• Small farms got smaller• Large farms got bigger • Greater numbers of landless and land poor following the 1992

Agricultural Modernization Law

Land market activity:- Land sales did not appear to increase post-Mitch.- Land rentals increased 10-fold, but did not compensate for land sales

from small to large farmers.

NEW APPROACHES TO LAND POLICY ARE NEEDED

(Photo Paul Jeffrey/CCD.) 

The food sovereignty model:toward reduced rural vulnerability

and fewer natural disasters

Food sovereignty as promoted by Via Campesina includes:• Prioritizing local agriculture for local consumption.• The promotion of agroecological methods• The right of countries to protect themselves from dumping of low

priced food products • The right of farmers to receive a just price for their products• Access to and control over land and natural resources by farmers• Redistributive land reform• State support for sustainable small-scale agriculture (based on

access to credit and inputs, just and stable prices, tenure security, and the protection of consumers’ health)

• Commercialization that prioritizes local markets

Sources: Via Campesina; Rosset (2002)

Postscript: Land tenure and natural disaster into the future

- Study of recent disasters provides glimpse of future

- Convergence of large-scale factors:

- Peak oil (more costly inputs and transport)

- Increased Asian demand

- Climate change

- Population growth

- Major changes lie ahead for global land-use and food systems

- Results already visible: food rationing and riots; spiraling grain costs; restricted exports

- In response to more costly imports, domestic production will become more attractive

- Will require rapid state responses

Cartoon from the Jamaica Observer February 13, 2008

Keys to the Cuban transition toward a more food sovereignty–style model, during the 1990s.From Rosset (2006)

CASE STUDY DESCRIPTIONGrenada Honduras

Population 103,000 (2005) 7,000,000

Area 344 sq. kms 112,000 sq. kms

Additional islands Carriacou and Petit Martinique

Roatan, Guanaja

Population Density 300 / sq km 62 / sq km

Rural/Urban Percentages 58 / 43 46 / 54

Area Forested (hectares and % of total land area)

6,000 (20%) 5,383,000 (48%)

WBI Governance Score +0.17 -0.60

Population below poverty line

28% 64%

HDI Rank (2007) 82 / 177 115 / 177

IFC Rank for Registering Property

145 78