expo canitec 2010, taller arris
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Soluciones tecnológicas para atender los crecientes requerimientos de capacidadTRANSCRIPT
Technology Solutions To Meet Growing Capacity Demands
Ken WrightChief Technology Officer, ARRIS
CANITECMonterrey, Mexico
28 April, 2010
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪
Technology Solution Alternatives
2
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures-
Exponential growth in internet traffic
3
0
5
10
15
20
Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09
Vide
os V
iew
ed (B
illio
ns)
U.S. Online Video Viewed on Major Video Properties*
Demand for Convergence and Bandwidth Growing
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Megabits per Second
per Subscriber
Digital MusicVoIP
DigitalPhotos
PodcastingOnline-Games
VideoMail
VideoBlogs
All Video on Demand
WebBrowsing
Video onDemand
High DefinitionVideo on Demand
Time
More than Doubled in 24 Months
150% More Bandwidth Consumed Per Subscriber
Every Year
Since 1982
Sources: Comscore, ARRIS estimates
IP Video
www.arrisi.com
Over The Top (OTT) TrendsBi
llion
s
Source: comScore
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
7.2
14.3
©
Copyright 2009. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved.
Total Online Videos Viewed/Month
Over The Top (OTT) Trends
Source: comScore
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
151
327
# of
min
utes
© Copyright 2009. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved.
Number of Minutes Watched/Average Viewer/Month
IP Video... It's Here To Stay... And It's Growing!
7www.arrisi.com
Overall Online Video Usage (U.S.)
Oct-09 Year-Over- Year
Month-Over- Month
Unique Viewers 138,623,000 +14.8% -0.5%
Total Streams 11,226,935,000 +26.2% +1.9%
Streams per Viewer 81.0 +9.9% +2.4%
Time per Viewer (min) 212.5 +23.8% +8.9%
Source: The Nielsen Company
All images are the property of their respective copyright owners.©
Copyright 2008. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved.
On Demand Drivers For Growth
8
Several Applications Are Currently Driving the DOCSIS Bandwidth Growth
▪
Many MSOs indicated average downstream traffic levels increased by 40-50% in 2009... some saw even larger increases
▪
Recent measurements indicate that more than 60% of the Internet traffic is created by:-
Peer-to-peer file transfers (mostly movies)
-
Progressive video downloads (YouTube, Hulu, Netflix, etc.)
10
Data Speed Trends for Modems Predict Ongoing Exponential Growth
ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary
11
Max Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps)
1982 1986 1990 1994 19981
10
100
1k
2002 2006
10k
100k
1M
10M
100M
1G
50 Mbps
1.2 kbps 2.4 kbps
300 bps
56 kbps
9.6 kbps 14.4 kbps
28 kbps33 kbps
The Era ofDial-Up Modems
The Era ofWideband
Cable Modems
2010
Year
???
2014
10G
100G
1 Gbps10 Gbps
100 Gbps
12 Mbps
2016
The past 25-years show a constant increase of ~1.5x per year...
~300 Mbps
(1.5) (2006-1982)
= 5M/300
(1.5) (2016-2006)
= 300M/5M
128 kbps
256 kbps 512 kbps
1 Mbps 5 Mbps
The Era ofCable Modems
12 Mbps
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but..."
~3.5 Mbps
Avg. BW90 kbps
Trends and Predictions of Maximum Offered Modem Bandwidths
Max
DS
Perm
itted
Ban
dwid
th fo
r Mod
ems
(bps
)
1982 1986 1990 1994 19981
10
100
1k
2002 2006
10k
100k
1M
10M
100M
1G
2010 Year2014
10G
100G
2016
The Era ofWideband
Cable Modems
12 Mbps
The past 25-years show a constant bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year... ~300 Mbps ?
128 kbps
256 kbps 512 kbps
1 Mbps 5 Mbps
The Era ofCable Modems2.4 kbps
300 bps
56 kbps
1.2 kbps9.6 kbps 14.4 kbps
28 kbps33 kbps
The Era ofDial-Up
Modems
50 Mbps200 Mbps
12
Trends in the Next Decade: Bandwidth Growth
▪
HSD & IPTV demands will lead to even more DOCSIS downstreams per headend
▪
ARRIS CMTSs must (and will) reduce the price/DOCSIS downstream to enable this evolution
ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary 13
# D
OC
SIS
Dow
nstre
ams
Req
uire
d fo
r 40K
HH
PH
eade
nd
Year
40
>1000
HSD
IPTV + HSD
???
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures-
Exponential growth in internet traffic
-
Increase in other Unicast traffic (voice, Video On Demand, etc.)
-
Deployment of HD channels-
3D -
Each program requires ~1.3x to ~1.5x the bandwidth
-
Simulcasting will require many resolutions for different devices▪
Example: 600 kbps for cell phones, 1.75 Mbps for PCs, 3.75 Mbps for Standard-Definition TVs, and 15 Mbps for High-Definition TVs
14
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪
Technology Solution Alternatives-
HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
-
Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)
15
Evolution of Bandwidth & Utilization Upstream Capacity Limited
--Status monitoringStatus monitoring--SetSet--tops returntops return--DOCSIS returnDOCSIS return
Analog VideoAnalog Video Digital broadcastDigital broadcast
2020 40405050 550550 750750 860860MHzMHz
DOCSIS forwardDOCSIS forward
20002000
--Status monitoringStatus monitoring--SetSet--tops returntops return--DOCSIS returnDOCSIS return--CBR telephony returnCBR telephony return
Analog VideoAnalog Video Digital broadcastDigital broadcast
--VOD, SVODVOD, SVOD--DOCSIS forwardDOCSIS forward--CBR telephony forwardCBR telephony forward
2020 40405050 550550 750750 860860MHzMHz
20042004
20082008
--VOD, SVODVOD, SVOD--DOCSISDOCSIS--SMESME--CBR telephonyCBR telephony--VoIPVoIP
--Status monitoringStatus monitoring--SetSet--tops returntops return--DOCSIS returnDOCSIS return--CBR telephony returnCBR telephony return--VoIP & SME returnVoIP & SME return
Analog VideoAnalog Video Digital broadcastDigital broadcast HDTVHDTV
2020 40405050 550550 750750 860860MHzMHz
20122012
--VOD, SVODVOD, SVOD--DOCSISDOCSIS--SMESME--SDVSDV--VoIPVoIP--IPTVIPTV
--Status monitoringStatus monitoring--SetSet--tops returntops return--DOCSIS returnDOCSIS return--VoIP & SME returnVoIP & SME return
Standard Definition Digital VideoStandard Definition Digital Video HDTVHDTV
2020 40405050 550550 750750 860860
UnicastUnicast
MHzMHz 1,0001,000
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪
Technology Solution Alternatives-
HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
-
Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)-
Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
-
DOCSIS 3.0•
4 channels yields 160 Mbps
17
MSOs Are Moving Toward DOCSIS For Their IP Video Delivery▪
Based on a trusted DOCSIS architecture
▪
Converges transport of voice, high speed data, and IP video
▪
Provides channel-bonding and stat-mux gains for 30% or more extra content offerings
▪
Provides high availability and intelligent packet scheduling of CMTS, as well as CMTS quality of service
▪
Provides the next generation of cost-effective CMTS solutions geared toward IP Video transport-
Moore's Law silicon benefits
-
Increased packet size trends due to IP video-
Multi-core chip architectures
18
IPTV over DOCSIS – Cost Reductions Due to Larger IPTV Packet Sizes
4 plus-fold throughput increase via the same processing engine
1370
CMTS Optimized for IPTV:
1 Gbps1 Gbps1 Gbps1 Gbps
Processor can process all 364K 1370B large
packets/sec arriving...
88% processor capacity is utilized
364K packets/second arrive
Avg. Packet Size for HSD = 300 bytes Avg. Packet Size for IPTV
= 1370 bytes
Processor can process all 300B 416K packets/sec...
300
CMTS HSD:
1 Gbps416K packets/second arrive
300 300 300 100% processor capacity is utilized
1370
CMTS without optimization for IPTV:
1 Gbps91K packets/second arrive
Processor can process 416K packets/sec but there are not
enough packets arriving...
Only 22% of processor’s power is
utilized
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪
Technology Solution Alternatives-
HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
-
Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)-
Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
-
DOCSIS 3.0•
4 channels yields 160 Mbps
-
IP Video
20
▪
IPTV -
overused term, means anything from YouTube video clips to watching full programs on Hulu or streamed programs from an MSO’s channel lineup
▪
“Pure”
IP Video -
delivery of video services over a managed network via Internet Protocol (IP) to a screen, through a broadband access network
▪
Screens include:-
Computers-
Hand-Held Devices (cell phones)-
TVs with IP STBs
▪
Services typically include:-
SD and HD video-
Digital Video Recorder-
Video-on-Demand-
Electronic Program Guide-
Interactive TV applications-
Targeted and Personalized Advertising-
Blending of internet and video services -
widgets
What is IP Video?
Place and Time Shifting
Photo and File Sharing
Internet Content
Any Device, Any Where
Drivers for IP Video Adoption▪
Consumer-
Any content, Anywhere, Anytime-
Content sharing across multiple devices-
Personalized and integrated services –
one provider-
Exponential growth of internet video usage▪
Cable Operator-
Competition on user experience and variety of services-
Additional revenue streams such as targeted advertising-
Competition on price –
reduce Set Top Box costs▪
Technology-
DOCSIS 3.0 (IPv6, Multicast, High Asymmetry, M-CMTS)-
Emergence of Systems on Chip for home devices that are capable of “blending”
traditional TV with IP Video content -
Network support for higher security and end-to-end QoS-
Advancements in processing & memory –
Moore’s law-
Advanced Codecs –
MPEG-4, AVC
ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary 22
Driver is Consumer DemandAny Content, Any Where, Any Time
Internet Video•
Unlimited Choice of User Generated Content
•
Limited Choice of High Value Content
•
PC, Game Console & Mobile Devices display
Internet
Managed Video•
Tight Control•
High Value Content•
Limited Choices of Content•
Limited choice of destination -
STB & PC
Agnostic Content•Unlimited Content –
Movies, TV Shows, Internet Video, and User Generated Content •Time-shifting •Targeted Advertising
Hybrid Approach •Central content and storage•Move streaming traffic to the edge•Hierarchical Caching•Better asset utilization•Scalable IP transport
Consumer Preference is the “AND” Solution
InternetInternet
Today’s Cable Video delivery is an “OR” choice for the consumer
OR
23
Examples of IPTV Services
Many MSOs Are Planning to Offer IP Video Within the Decade▪
Offers access to a broader audience and all three screens (TV, PC and handheld)
▪
Provides a direct conduit to the 15 to 30-year-old demographic
▪
Monetizes high quality video content with new subscription fees
▪
Offers access to the growing "Internet advertising market" through directed advertising in IP-based videos
▪
Offers opportunity to become "the organizers" of all IP Video content (MSO-based and web-based)
▪
Eliminates high costs of the existing MPEG Set-Top Boxs
25
Ultimately Convergence in the Home and in the Network
Dynamic Multicast
Always-On Static Multicast
Dynamic Unicast
Static Unicast
Dynamic Multicast
Always-On Static Multicast
Dynamic Unicast
Static Unicast
Scheduled Programming
Smart Phone
Simple IP Settop
Data/Video
Internet Video
Video Gateway
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/VideoData/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Data/Video
Streaming and Storage
Linear Broadcast Video
SDV Video
VoD/nPVR Video
CDN
HFC Network
(remains unchanged)
Intranet / Internet
Intranet / Internet
Web Tablet
Home
Streaming over DOCSIS3.0
▪
DOCSIS3.0 bonds multiple 6 MHz channels -
4x34 mbps = 136 mbps-
8x34 mbps = 272 mbps-
16x34 mbps = 544 mbps
▪
Inside such a large delivery pipe, it is possible to take advantage of “organic” self-averaging of Variable Bit Rate (VBR) streams
VBR VBR
mbps
time
CBRCBR
time
mbps
Savings
▪
Peaks of information inside un-
correlated VBR streams are unlikely to occur at the same time instances.
▪
I-frames of streams encoded with variable GOP size occur at random, un-correlated intervals
▪
As a result, the streams naturally self-average
their composite bit rate resulting in a more predictable composite stream with Peak to Average (PAR) value closer to 1
View of Individual Streams
21 streams MPEG4 HD streams each peaking at ~ 20 mbps
Same Streams Packed into 40 mbps Channels
6 to 7 RF (6MHz 256 QAM modulated) channels are needed to deliver 21 streams
40 mbps
Same Streams Self-averaging inside 160 mbps
4 bonded RF channels can deliver the same 21 streams
160 mbps
VBR Self-averaging inside 320 mbps
48 HD Video VBR streams packed into octal-bonded DOCSIS3.0. That’s 6 more than 2 x 21 in two quad-bonded
4 RF channels used8 bonded RF channels can carry 48 streams
320 mbps
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪
Technology Solution Alternatives-
HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
-
Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)-
Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
-
DOCSIS 3.0•
4 channels yields 160 Mbps
-
IP Video-
Service Area Segmentation
32
Segmentation Solutions▪
Reduce service group sizes –
fewer users sharing
bandwidth▪
Relatively low cost way to gain capacity
▪
Only approach that increases both forward & reverse capacity
▪
Can be done incrementally where needed, when needed▪
Optical multi-wavelength techniques now take cost of adding fiber out of equation
▪
Amplifier to node upgrades -
Segment amplifier cascades for service group size reduction.
-
Labor (and cost) can be reduced by up to 40% by reusing the amplifier base and eliminating coax resplicing.
33
Segmentable Nodes Network View
34
4 x 4 Segmentation Segmented Amplifier Cascades
Existing Fiber is Being Exhausted Need Emerging for Fiber Reuse Technology
www.arrisi.com 35
Late 1990’s Mid 2000’s Late 2000’s
Tx
Nodes NodesTx
Tx
Tx
Tx
Tx
Tx
Tx
Tx
Existing fibers approaching exhaustion
Tx
Tx
Tx
Tx
New Community
32X the Capacity of Late 1990’s
Topics of Discussion▪
Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪
Technology Solution Alternatives-
HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz)
-
Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs)-
Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops)
-
DOCSIS 3.0•
4 channels yields 160 Mbps
-
IP Video-
Service Area Segmentation
-
Fiber Deeper and Optical Evolution
36
37
Graceful Evolution Using Existing InfrastructureFiber Deep -> RFoG -> EPON
ARRIS Confidential
Thank You
Questions?
38