export value thai export to major destinations asian ... · jan 2017 apr jul 2017 oct jan 2018 apr...

12
1 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Thai Export to Major Destinations 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) EU Japan* China ASEAN5 ME * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods ** ex other manufacturing products US** Aug 2019 = 21.9 Bn USD Ex. gold = 20.0 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 15.8 Bn USD %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data. Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data %YoY Share 2018 2018 P 2018P 2019P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Sep (%MoM) Agriculture 7.2 0.4 3.4 -2.5 -2.1 -4.9 -8.9 -10.0 -19.5 -16.7 Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -1.4 -11.0 -14.9 -9.2 -2.9 -2.2 -6.7 -3.6 Manufacturing 88.9 8.6 13.2 4.4 -1.9 -5.4 -4.9 -10.6 -2.1 0.7 Agro-manufacturing 12.4 7.6 10.2 5.2 0.7 -5.7 -0.7 -3.8 5.3 0.3 Electronics 14.8 5.0 12.4 -1.5 -11.3 -9.5 -6.0 -9.5 -3.3 4.4 Electrical Appliances 5.3 1.6 6.6 -3.6 -4.6 2.2 2.8 -4.6 8.4 3.1 Automotive 15.2 7.9 15.3 1.4 -3.8 -3.5 -0.5 -8.1 6.8 -1.4 Machinery & Equipment 8.7 6.7 10.3 3.4 -2.9 -6.2 -7.2 -7.0 -9.5 -6.4 Petroleum Related 13.1 21.8 26.5 17.8 -7.2 -13.4 -17.9 -24.5 -16.2 3.0 Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 7.5 12.4 2.9 -4.0 -4.2 0.0 -2.1 -1.5 -6.4 Ex. Gold - 8.2 12.9 3.9 -4.2 -5.8 -4.8 -8.9 -3.3 -0.8 Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related - 6.4 11.1 2.0 -3.8 -4.6 -2.7 -6.5 -1.4 -1.2 Export Value Sep 2019 = 20.4 Bn USD Ex. gold = 19.8 Bn USD 1) ( ) represents export share in 2018 2) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018; Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%) 3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development Export by Firm Size Index sa, 3mma (2015=100) CLMV Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand PH INDO MY TH TW CN SG KR 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Total Large Exporter (52%) Medium Exporter (32%) Small Exporter (16%) Sep 19

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Page 1: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · Jan 2017 Apr Jul 2017 Oct Jan 2018 Apr Jul 2018 Oct Jan 2019 Apr Jul 2019 Paddy Rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil

1

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Thai Export to Major Destinations

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EU

Japan*China

ASEAN5

ME

* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods** ex other manufacturing products

US**

Aug 2019 = 21.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 20.0 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 15.8 Bn USD

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare

20182018P

2018P 2019P

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepSep

(%MoM)

Agriculture 7.2 0.4 3.4 -2.5 -2.1 -4.9 -8.9 -10.0 -19.5 -16.7

Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -1.4 -11.0 -14.9 -9.2 -2.9 -2.2 -6.7 -3.6

Manufacturing 88.9 8.6 13.2 4.4 -1.9 -5.4 -4.9 -10.6 -2.1 0.7

Agro-manufacturing 12.4 7.6 10.2 5.2 0.7 -5.7 -0.7 -3.8 5.3 0.3

Electronics 14.8 5.0 12.4 -1.5 -11.3 -9.5 -6.0 -9.5 -3.3 4.4

Electrical Appliances 5.3 1.6 6.6 -3.6 -4.6 2.2 2.8 -4.6 8.4 3.1

Automotive 15.2 7.9 15.3 1.4 -3.8 -3.5 -0.5 -8.1 6.8 -1.4

Machinery &

Equipment 8.7 6.7 10.3 3.4 -2.9 -6.2 -7.2 -7.0 -9.5 -6.4

Petroleum Related 13.1 21.8 26.5 17.8 -7.2 -13.4 -17.9 -24.5 -16.2 3.0

Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 7.5 12.4 2.9 -4.0 -4.2 0.0 -2.1 -1.5 -6.4

Ex. Gold - 8.2 12.9 3.9 -4.2 -5.8 -4.8 -8.9 -3.3 -0.8

Ex. Gold &

Petroleum Related - 6.4 11.1 2.0 -3.8 -4.6 -2.7 -6.5 -1.4 -1.2

Export ValueSep 2019 = 20.4 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 19.8 Bn USD

1) ( ) represents export share in 20182) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018;

Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%)3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development

Export by Firm SizeIndex sa, 3mma (2015=100)

CLMV

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PH INDOMY

THTW

CNSGKR

9095

100105110115120125130

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov

-15

Apr-1

6

Sep-

16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec-

17

May

-18

Oct

-18

Mar

-19

Aug-

19

TotalLarge Exporter (52%)Medium Exporter (32%)Small Exporter (16%)

Sep 19

Page 2: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · Jan 2017 Apr Jul 2017 Oct Jan 2018 Apr Jul 2018 Oct Jan 2019 Apr Jul 2019 Paddy Rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil

2

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

%YoYShare

20182018P

2018P 2019P

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepSep

(%MoM)

Consumer 10.3 12.5 16.7 8.6 -1.3 1.6 8.9 -2.2 9.1 2.6

Raw material &

Intermediate56.0 17.9 19.5 16.3 -0.1 -4.8 -7.0 -10.6 -9.7 -6.1

o/w Fuel 16.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 7.9 -3.7 -11.5 -0.9 -21.3 -23.2

o/w Raw mat &

Interm ex. Fuel 40.1 11.7 14.1 9.3 -2.9 -5.2 -5.1 -14.2 -5.0 1.3

Capital 22.8 1.0 5.6 -3.3 -9.1 -5.0 4.1 -4.6 4.9 4.5

Others 10.8 9.0 15.2 4.4 10.3 2.0 -29.3 -47.9 -6.7 8.5

Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 13.7 16.7 11.1 -2.9 -3.4 -6.8 -15.5 -4.5 -0.5

Ex. Gold - 14.4 17.1 11.9 -0.1 -3.7 -2.6 -8.0 -3.5 -1.3

Ex.

Gold&Fuel- 10.3 13.6 7.2 -1.7 -3.7 -0.5 -9.5 0.6 3.6

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueAug 2019 = 18.3 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD

Sep 2019 = 17.7 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 16.9 Bn USD

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

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3

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100

Private Consumption Indicators

%YoY 20182018 2019P

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP %MoM sa

Non-durable index 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.4 3.3 1.8 1.7 1.1 -0.9

Semi-durable index 2.8 2.5 3.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 -0.6 1.3 0.7

Durable index 8.0 7.9 8.2 5.3 0.1 -3.1 -4.0 -5.7 -3.4

Service index 5.3 7.1 3.6 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.7 0.7

(less) Net tourist spending -0.6 3.6 -4.3 -2.5 1.8 4.6 5.9 7.5 0.8

Private Consumption Index 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 2.5 1.4 1.0 1.3 -0.3

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Service Index sa, 3mma

Net tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Bank of Thailand Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Page 4: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · Jan 2017 Apr Jul 2017 Oct Jan 2018 Apr Jul 2018 Oct Jan 2019 Apr Jul 2019 Paddy Rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil

4

Farm Income

Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY

(%YoY) 20182018 2019

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep

Nominal farm

incomeP1.6 0.8 3.1 0.2 -0.4 3.4 4.1 4.0

Agricultural

productionP7.7 10.7 5.4 0.8 -2.4 1.1 1.4 1.3

Agricultural

price-5.7 -8.9 -2.1 -0.6 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.6

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

4.0

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan2017

Apr Jul2017

Oct Jan2018

Apr Jul2018

Oct Jan2019

Apr Jul2019

Paddy Rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil PalmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income

Source: NSO, Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1.73

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Non-Farm Real Total Earning%YoY

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Total Current

Next 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Page 5: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · Jan 2017 Apr Jul 2017 Oct Jan 2018 Apr Jul 2018 Oct Jan 2019 Apr Jul 2019 Paddy Rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil

5

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand

(%YoY)Share2016R 2018

2018 2019

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP %MoM

sa

Food & Beverages 19.9 4.8 5.6 3.9 0.6 -1.5 1.6 0.9 -0.1 -0.9Automotives 13.9 9.9 11.6 8.3 4.7 -1.0 -6.3 -7.7 -5.0 -3.5

- Passenger Cars 4.8 10.0 10.1 10.0 6.7 -0.5 -8.3 -9.8 -5.5 0.6

- Commercial Vehicles 7.2 10.3 12.1 8.6 4.6 -0.2 -5.1 -5.8 -5.6 -2.1

- Engine 1.3 9.5 15.4 4.2 -2.8 -6.8 -5.8 -8.1 -1.3 -2.7

Petroleum 9.6 4.8 7.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 -7.4 -3.2 -11.2 -4.5Chemicals 9.2 4.6 6.4 2.7 -0.7 -1.3 1.7 3.0 5.9 0.5Rubbers & Plastics 8.9 -1.2 -0.2 -2.1 -4.1 -7.2 -9.4 -9.4 -12.2 -3.9Cement & Construction 5.5 4.6 3.7 5.5 -0.3 1.0 -4.2 -6.3 -2.8 -0.8

IC & Semiconductors 5.5 2.6 0.8 4.4 -2.5 -4.5 -12.0 -15.2 -9.4 2.3

Electrical Appliances 3.8 0.9 -0.8 3.1 2.3 7.8 1.3 -6.1 -0.2 -1.0Textiles & Apparels 3.5 2.0 -0.3 4.3 -3.7 -5.7 -9.0 -10.2 -4.8 1.0Hard Disk Drive 3.4 2.7 12.9 -5.9 -15.2 -13.4 0.5 13.3 -6.6 -14.4

Others 16.7 -0.5 1.0 -1.9 -6.1 -5.4 -5.7 -8.3 -7.1 -1.8

MPI 100.0 3.6 4.9 2.4 -1.2 -2.5 -4.2 -4.4 -4.7 -2.3

MPI sa ∆% from last

period100.0 - 2.9 0.7 -2.5 -0.4 -2.0 -0.4 -2.3 -

Capacity Utilization

(SA)- 69.8 69.9 69.6 68.3 67.5 65.9 66.5 64.5 - * The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul

Industrial Electricity Consumption*

Quantity of Imported Raw Materials

Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

-2.0 %

-2.2%

-2.8 %

%MoM sa

%MoM sa

-0.8 %

-6.4 %

-1.1 %

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6

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

707580859095

100105

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Construction Materials Index

Permitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

% YoY 20182018 2019P

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep %MoM sa

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -3.3 0.7 -7.3 -13.1 -11.3 -6.8 -7.2 -4.1 0.5

Construction Materials Index 4.5 1.4 7.7 1.0 2.4 -3.8 -8.1 -1.6 1.4

Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.6 5.2 2.2 2.6 -2.1 -1.3 -8.5 -2.6 2.6

Real Domestic Machinery Sales 6.1 6.6 5.5 -2.3 -5.3 -6.8 -7.7 -8.0 -0.6

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 5.7 4.9 6.6 6.6 -1.8 -2.5 -8.2 -3.8 -1.9

Private Investment Index 3.5 4.2 2.9 -1.0 -3.3 -3.4 -6.3 -3.9 0.5

Private Investment Indicators

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.

Source: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

2017 2018 2019

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7

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019

Sep

-3.0%

Sep

14.0%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Billion baht FY2018 FY2019FY2018 FY2019

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep

Revenue 2,513 2,538 758 671 615 551 777 595 182 226

(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (8.7) (8.9) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (-8.7) (-25.1)

Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 731 606 924 719 654 679 168 281

(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (14.0) (2.3) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-3.9) (22.4)

Budgetary B/L -368 -437 28 65 -309 -168 124 -83 14 -55

Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 53 -70 -28 -21 123 53 -12 58

Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 81 -5 -337 -190 247 -30 2 2

Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 139 5 -274 -178 313 -20 3 8

Net Financing 506 190 83 212 84 99 -38 45 26 -2

Treasury B/L 633 513 427 633 380 289 497 513 512 513Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

0

10

20

30

40

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Sep

-5.2%

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50

100

150

200

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Total China (28%)Malaysia (11%) Asia ex. CN MY (30%)Europe ex. Russia (14%) Russia (4%)

20182018 2019

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP YTD

No. of tourists (’000)

38,178 19,425 18,753 10,795 8,974 9,696 3,466 2,903 29,466

%YoY 7.3 11.9 2.9 2.1 1.4 7.2 7.4 10.1 3.5

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - 2.6 -0.9 3.3 1.4 2.2 -

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100) Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: ( ) denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2018 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

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9

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

Sep0.32%

Sep0.44%

( ) Share in Core Inflation

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

Thousand persons sa, 3mma

Labor Market Indicators

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

%YOY2018 2018 2019

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep

Unemployment rate

(sa)1.1 1.2 1.0

0.9

(0.9)

1.0

(0.9)

1.0

(1.0)

1.0

(1.0)

1.0

(1.0)

Employed persons (%YoY)

(%QoQ, %MoMsa3mma)1.1 0.4 1.8

0.9

(-0.2)

-0.3

(-0.3)

-2.1

(-1.3)

-1.7

(-0.5)

-1.9

(-0.5)

Underemployment rate 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5

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10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2018P2018P 2019P

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepE YTD

Trade Balance 22.4 13.8 8.6 6.5 5.7 8.0 3.6 2.7 20.1

Exports (f.o.b.) 251.1 125.6 125.5 59.9 60.6 63.3 21.9 20.4 183.7

%YoY 7.5 12.4 2.9 -4.0 -4.2 0.0 -2.1 -1.5 -2.7

Imports (f.o.b.) 228.7 111.7 117.0 53.4 54.8 55.3 18.3 17.7 163.6

%YoY 13.7 16.7 11.1 -2.9 -3.4 -6.8 -15.5 -4.5 -4.4

Net Services, Income & Transfers 6.1 4.5 1.5 5.8 -0.6 1.2 0.4 0.8 6.3

Current Account 28.5 18.4 10.1 12.2 5.1 9.1 4.0 3.5 26.4

Capital and Financial Account -15.6 -12.0 -3.6 -5.1 -3.2 0.2 -1.4 -0.9 -8.1

Overall Balance 7.3 7.6 -0.4 5.5 0.1 6.8 1.0 1.0 12.3

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Millions of USD 2018P 2018P 2019P

YTDH1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepE

1. Assets -22,624 -9,195 -13,429 -5,115 -4,841 -831 -748 -1,654 -10,788TDI -21,249 -11,008 -10,241 -4,427 -3,498 -3,714 -557 -1,793 -11,639- Equity -8,326 -3,274 -5,051 -1,293 -1,861 -984 -280 -315 -4,138- Reinvestment of earnings -1,272 -676 -596 -375 -306 -486 -162 -162 -1,167

Thai portfolio investment -1,952 -520 -1,432 -1,278 -1,383 -2,857 -329 -2,446 -5,519- Equity security investment -2,477 -4,465 1,989 86 -43 -1,122 -522 -519 -1,079- Debt security investment 525 3,946 -3,421 -1,364 -1,341 -1,735 193 -1,926 -4,439

Loans -1,176 -1,047 -129 400 704 505 110 92 1,609 Other investments 1,753 3,380 -1,627 190 -665 5,235 28 2,492 4,760 - Trade credits 2,541 12 2,529 -345 -245 -276 248 -697 -866- Deposits abroad -6,722 1,442 -8,164 -372 -3,330 4,380 136 2,344 678

2. Liabilities 7,676 -2,203 9,879 7 1,625 1,012 -688 729 2,644 FDI 13,205 6,067 7,138 669 1,988 5,188 447 3,674 7,845 - Equity 5,797 2,769 3,028 -1,603 2,337 2,892 181 1,780 3,626 - Reinvestment of earnings 7,535 3,372 4,163 2,640 -70 942 314 314 3,512

Foreign portfolio investment -3,911 -6,523 2,611 -1,291 2,581 -3,164 -2,188 -804 -1,874- Equity security investment -7,101 -4,632 -2,469 -401 1,244 -1,117 -1,359 -241 -274- Debt security investment 3,190 -1,890 5,080 -890 1,337 -2,048 -829 -564 -1,600

Loans 2,342 -893 3,235 1,317 -2,382 799 1,117 -1,015 -266Other investments -3,960 -854 -3,106 -689 -562 -1,810 -64 -1,126 -3,061- Trade credits 77 838 -762 -17 -606 -1,475 -460 -595 -2,098- Deposits abroad 368 493 -126 283 555 477 282 -102 1,315

Total financial flows (1+2) -14,948 -11,398 -3,550 -5,109 -3,216 181 -1,436 -925 -8,143

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Page 12: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · Jan 2017 Apr Jul 2017 Oct Jan 2018 Apr Jul 2018 Oct Jan 2019 Apr Jul 2019 Paddy Rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil

12

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul

NEER REER USDTHB

Sources: Bank of Thailand and Reuters

-1.2%

-0.4% -0.2% -0.1%0.0%

0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8%1.0%

1.2%

2.1%

-0.9%

0.4%

1.2%

0.0%

1.0%

-0.4% -0.3%

0.1%

-0.6%

0.3%

1.2%

0.5%

2.5%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

JPY EUR PHP VND THB IDR MYR CNY INR SGD TWD KRW GBP

End of Sep 19 compared to end of Aug 1924 Oct 19 compared to end of Sep 19

Exchange Rate Movement % p.a.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

29-D

ec-1

723

-Jan

-18

13-F

eb-1

87-

Mar

-18

28-M

ar-1

823

-Apr

-18

15-M

ay-1

86-

Jun-

1827

-Jun

-18

18-J

ul-1

810

-Aug

-18

3-Se

p-18

24-S

ep-1

816

-Oct

-18

7-N

ov-1

828

-Nov

-18

21-D

ec-1

815

-Jan

-19

5-Fe

b-19

27-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

11-A

pr-1

98-

May

-19

30-M

ay-1

921

-Jun

-19

12-J

ul-1

95-

Aug-

1927

-Aug

-19

17-S

ep-1

98-

Oct

-19

Latest data 24 Oct 2019

Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

Oct 2019(Average data

until 24 Oct 2019)THB Appreciation

Sep-19114.5

Oct-19124.4

Oct-19108.3

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Q12

018

Q22

018

Q32

018

Q42

018

Q12

019

Q22

019

Q32

019

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

Sep 2019E

3.7