« XI JINPING, THE NEW ERA »

“REJUVENATING CHINA”

OR “RULING BY LAW” ?

BACKGROUND & PERSONALITIES OF THE FIFTH GENERATION OF LEADERS,

& THEIR CORE POLICIES

MAY 2013

“XI JINPING, THE NEW ERA”

More than 40 global corporations have already been ordering our study “Xi Jinping, the new

era” (released in November 2012 for its first, CCP-part – sponsorship by Nestlé”), which is set to be a

reference tool for professionals from every sector for the next five years.

Roland Decorvet, CEO of Nestlé China, expresses his appreciation: “Thanks to accurate

comments and a well-informed analysis, the study provides a global understanding of China’s

complexity. A refreshing pleasure to read and different from most others”.

NEW GOVERNMENT UNTIL 2017

Following the recent reshuffle (November 2012/March 2013), we present over 40 profiles of the

new governing bodies until 2017: Politburo members, State Councillors, Ministers…

Besides, we offer an in-depth analysis of the restructuration of the State Council (Energy,

Transports, Food Safety, Oceanic, and Health…) and 8 new politics:

- Agriculture,

- Food Safety,

- Urbanisation,

- Environment,

- Corruption,

- Taxation,

- Diplomacy,

- Defence

Pages: 113 pages, including organization charts, diagrams…

Price:

EUR 750

EUR 500 for “Le Vent de la Chine” subscribers

A reduced rate of EUR 200 is granted for those who already ordered the 1st part of the study

To book a copy, please contact us: levdlc@leventdelachine.com

CHINA TRADE WINDS’ STUDY, “XI JINPING, THE NEW ERA”: A REVIEW

BY WILLIAM KAZER, JOURNALIST, CHINA EXPERT

China has wrapped up its much anticipated Communist Party Congress, a key gathering that

has brought in a new leadership team for the ruling party - a team that is already making significant

changes in style and substance. The political transition is now complete with the unveiling of the new

government lineup, and this closely watched change of the guard will determine the direction of

policies, possibly for the next decade, in the world's second largest economy.

China Trade Winds, led by long-time China watcher Eric Meyer, has put together a wide-

ranging analysis of these important personnel changes and their policy implications. This study brings

together years of experience in assessing China and its key political and economic developments. At

this critical juncture, the study takes an in-depth look at the individuals who have already joined this

new party elite and those waiting in the wings for a chance to be counted among the top decision

makers in the years ahead.

It is a highly readable account, full of anecdotes and up close, "insider" observations on the

main characters and their ascent to power. It looks at the alliances and the fault lines within the

political establishment, and assesses how these factors will decide which policies might emerge and

who might support them -- or stand in their way. It looks at the new party leader Xi Jinping and his

number two Li Keqiang -- the country's next premier -- as well as the less visible but highly influential

Wang Huning -- the "sherpa" who has already served two Communist Party chiefs by preparing their

intellectual ammunition.

This is an essential study for anyone who takes China's political and economic developments

seriously. Likewise, it is a must read for anyone doing business in the People's Republic of China and

trying to anticipate shifts in policy direction.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

XU SHAOSHI (徐绍史) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT & REFORM COMMISSION CHAIRMAN

AN OIL-SEARCHER & A BOSS OF CHINA’S ECONOMY

Born in Ningbo, in Zhejiang, in 1951, Xu Shaoshi is a very discrete

figure, joining the party at age 23 in 1974. He graduated from the

Changchun College of Geology, and climbed the ranks of the Ministry of

Geology and Mineral Resources from 1980 to 1993. Then he entered

Nankai University in Tianjin and the Central Party School in Beijing. Starting

in 1996, he served as director of the secretariat and deputy secretary-

general of the State Council.

Minister of Land and Resources from April 2007 to March 2013, he is

a high-profile protégé of former premier Wen Jiabao’s. In 2010, Xu made

a mysterious trip to Australian Antarctica, by plane and then on board the icebreaker Xuelong, in a

bid to better familiarize his government with the economic potential of the Antarctic and South Pole

region.

In March 2013, he was appointed head of the powerful National Development and Reform

Commission, which holds sway over vast sectors of the Chinese economy. This appointment indicates

that Wen Jiabao, although weakened by reports surrounding his family’s recently amassed wealth

(2.7 billion dollars, according to the New York Times), still managed to place allies into key positions

during the latest changing of the guard.

In his new post, Xu has the power to review major construction projects and oversee the

development of the energy sector. In his previous position, Xu set out plans to sharply step up oil and

mineral exploration, anxious to alleviate “China's dependency on foreign sources for energy and

many minerals, a matter of state security.” He also helped map out a plan to streamline China’s State

Oceanic Administration and restructure the nation’s competing coast guard fleets.

Although Xu vowed to strengthen supervision of China’s offshore oil drilling operations

following a series of hazardous spills, the government still hasn’t imposed strict punishments on the

worst, repeat offenders in terms of spills that have wreaked havoc with sections of the Chinese

coastline (the last one was in the Bohai Sea in 2012, by Conoco Phillips and its partner the Cnooc).

Xu’s being placed at the economic helm of the NDRC seems to be in line with the lesser priority de

facto placed on environment protection.

However, a statement made in 2011 by Xu as the minister of land and resources, at a national

land resources conference, sheds a different light: from now on, in land biddings for housing purpose,

“only the bidder who can best serve the public interest” would win the use of the land, and not only

the bid amount but also the prices of the future residences would be taken into account.

Clearly, at this stage, Xu Shaoshi was standing on Li Keqiang’s and Xi Jinping’s side, preparing

for a massive housing program, if not environmentally friendly, at democratic prices.

JIANG JIEMIN (蒋洁敏)

STATE-OWNED ASSETS SUPERVISION & ADMINISTRATION COMMISSION CHAIRMAN

THE RESISTIBLE RISE OF THE ENERGY FACTION

Born in Shandong province in 1955, Jiang Jiemin is a key figure in

China's oil and gas industry with almost 30 years’ experience. Just months

before being named to head the SASAC, he was elevated to become a

full member of the 18th Central Committee.

Until March of 2013 head of the CNPC and its listed subsidiary

PetroChina, Jiang has been made chairman of the State-Owned Assets

Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The commission

manages the ten dozen biggest state-owned enterprises, and has seen

profits from these firms, many of which enjoy a monopoly, skyrocket in

recent years. These consortia and the SASAC are a closed, politically

connected club, arguably the most powerful economic lobby, and they

select informally from among their peers those who are to run and protect their institutions, those

most apt at defending their own interests parallel to those of the nation, or even of the party. They

exemplify what China analyst Willy Lam calls “the rise of the energy faction in Chinese politics.”

Jiang’s move was orchestrated by the party’s powerful Central Organization Department,

which controls appointments to the top 4000 nomenklatura positions, including the heads of state-

owned conglomerates. His elevation was supported by patron Zhou Yongkang, a veteran of CNPC

who later became public security minister. Close to Jiang Zemin, Zhou belongs to the Shanghai

Faction, and retains power despite stepping down from the Politburo Standing Committee last

autumn. From Jiang Jiemin’s promotion, it may be inferred that Zhou, while compromised in the

unresolved Bo Xilai imbroglio, still had enough clout to nominate a protégé to head the SASAC, one

of his spheres of influence.

As the head of SASAC, Jiang will face calls to reform China’s leading state-owned firms,

especially the oil titans, and halt a string of ecological disasters that have emerged over the last

years. Under his leadership, the CNPC was responsible for an explosion at its Dalian refinery (Liaoning)

in July 2010, which led to a spill in coastal waters and killed a fire-fighter. Other accidents followed

within the network of the CNPC plants, arguably the result of over-rapid expansion and failure to

invest in accident prevention. Before this string of catastrophes, in an address to fellow leaders of oil

companies, Jiang stated: “Environmental protection is our national policy, and is, above all, the

corporate responsibility.” According to the press, Jiang Jiemin got away with a “stern warning”, and

"demerit" marks” for the Dalian oil spill. Despite these minimal sanctions, and some unconfirmed

rumours of corruption (March 2013), Jiang Jiemin continues to rise. Some western experts expect him

to launch reforms that will see state-owned firms in energy, transport and finance face more private

competition.

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