Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts

Don Slinn, Jeff Ren, Go FujitaUniv of Florida

Coastal Engineering

MDL’s ExtratropicalStorm Surge

An Introduction

Anne KramerScientific ProgrammerNOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA

ETSS background• ETSS model is based on SLOSH, but

modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid

• Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations

• Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates:– Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996– Alaska, Arctic: 1998– Gulf of Alaska: 2008– East Coast: 1999, 2008– Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011– West Coast: 1998, 2011

ETSS background• Resolution varies

– Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km– East Coast ~ 9.4km– Alaska ~ 6.7km– West Coast ~ 6.5km

• Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days

• Results posted to the web – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text

& hydrographs)– http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST.

expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data)

– http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded)

MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort

• Completed– Uploaded to SURA server:• archived forecast graphs and text files for north East

Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest

• Projected– Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived GFS

wind data– Potentially create gridded hindcasts using

reanalysis GDAS winds

Northeast Coast Basin: PV2

4400544008

4400944013

44017

4401844025

44029

4430

44037

44034

44033

Another 4 days of the 2007 storm when winds and waves were smaller

2005 Storm 100 hours

44013

44009

44005

44008

44029

44025

44018

44017

44038

4403744034

44030

Summary• Simulated 2005 and 2007 storms for 4 or 8 days• Waves heights are reasonable• In the 2007 storm, 30% of the surge is from waves• Wind fields (no pressure fields) in different

formats implemented into SLOSH (no tides)• Waves on Nested grids• Operational Extratropical Slosh on coarser grid