f msy is good 0.9 f msy is better 0.9 msy is best
TRANSCRIPT
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FMSY is good
0.9 FMSY is better
0.9 MSY is best
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Towards Healthy Fish Stocksand Profitable Fisheries
in Europe
Rainer Froese
IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, [email protected]
EC, 22 June 2010, Brussels
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What is a Stock?
• A stock is the exploited part of a population of fishes
• The total weight of the stock is called biomass (B)
• SSB is the Spawning Stock Biomass, i.e., the total weight of the adults
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SardineBiscay and off Portugal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Sp
awn
ing
Sto
ck B
iom
ass
(10
00 t
)
ICES 2010
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What is MSY?
• MSY is the Maximum Sustainable Yield
• MSY is the maximum catch that the stock can deliver on a regular basis
• Catches above MSY shrink the stock
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Cod, Eastern Baltic
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
SS
B a
nd
Lan
din
gs
(100
0 t)
MSY
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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What is BMSY?
• BMSY is the stock size that can produce the maximum sustainable yield
• BMSY is the central reference point of the Law of the Sea and UNFSA (1995) with regard to fisheries
Stock biomass B Depleted Unfished
BMSYCan produce MSYCan not produce MSY
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Cod, Eastern Baltic
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
SS
B a
nd
Lan
din
gs
(100
0 t)
BMSY
MSY
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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What the hell is F?
• F is the rate by which fish are removed from the stock by fishing (fishing mortality)
• F can be translated into the percentage of the stock that is taken by the fishery
F 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
% 10 18 26 33 39 45 50 55 59 63
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What is FMSY?
• FMSY is the fishing mortality that will lead to BMSY
• F < FMSY leads to stock sizes above BMSY
• F > FMSY shrinks the stock below BMSY
FMSY 0.11 0.24 0.43
% 10 21 35
Greenlandhalibut
Cod, herring Sandeel
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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Cod, Eastern Baltic
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
SS
B (
1000
t)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Fis
hin
g m
ort
alit
y F
FMSY
BMSY
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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What is the biomass of European stocks relative to BMSY?
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
B/B
msy
B = B msy
B < B msy
B << B msy
75 percentile
25 percentile
Median
Biomass of European Stocks
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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What is the fishing mortality of European stocks relative to FMSY
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Fishing Pressure on European Stocks
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
F/F
msy
Median
25 percentile
75 percentile
F = F msy
F >> F msy
F > F msy
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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What are the landings relative to MSY?
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Landings and Biomass of European Stocks in 2007
Froese et al., submitted
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B MSY
Lan
din
gs
/ M
SY
B MSY
MSY
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Will Europe be able to rebuild its stocks by 2015?
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Rebuilding European Fish Stocks
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Mea
n s
tock
siz
e
TargetPrecautionary
Overfished
Unsafe
Trend
Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend.
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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Will Europe be able to rebuild its stocks by 2015?
NO
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Will Europe be able to at least reduce fishing mortality
to FMSY by 2015?
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Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Fis
hin
g p
ress
ure
(F/F
msy
)
TargetPrecautionary
Overfishing
TrendThreatening the stock
Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be
missed by more than 30 years.
Damanaki proposal
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
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Will Europe be able to at least reduce fishing mortality
to FMSY by 2015?
YESIf the Damanaki proposal succeeds
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FMSY is good
0.9 FMSY is better
0.9 MSY is best
because it leads to the biomass that can produce the maximum sustainable yield(Damanaki proposal)
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Why is 0.9 FMSY better than FMSY?
• Because it increases stock size to 30% above BMSY
• Because larger stock size means lower cost of fishing -> Maximum Economic Yield
• Because international agreements (UNFSA 1995) asks for Ftarget < FMSY
• Because the precautionary principle demands a safety distance to FMSY and BMSY
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FMSY is good
0.9 FMSY is better
0.9 MSY is best
because it leads to larger stocks, larger profits, more safety, and compliance withinternational agreements
because it leads to the biomass that can produce the maximum sustainable yield(Damanaki proposal)
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Why is 0.9 MSY better than 0.9 FMSY?
• Because 0.9 MSY has all the advantages of 0.9 FMSY
In addition • 0.9 MSY avoids exceeding MSY (FMSY will do that,
thereby creating an incentive for overcapacity)
• 0.9 MSY provides stability for the industry (same landings as long as B > BMSY)
• 0.9 MSY is a simple, transparent rule that is easily communicated to stakeholders
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0.9 MSY Harvest Control Rule
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B MSY
Lan
din
gs
/ M
SY
B MSY 1.3 B MSY
MSY
0.9 MSY
Move stocks here.Landings may then be 60% higher
Froese et al., submitted
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FMSY is good
0.9 FMSY is better
0.9 MSY is best
because it leads to larger stocks, larger profits, more safety, and compliance withinternational agreements
Because, in addition to the previous,it avoids overcapacity, provides stability for the industry, and is easy to understand
Thank You Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR
because it leads to the biomass that can produce the maximum sustainable yield(Damanaki proposal)