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MANAGEMENT OF OPERATIONSICE-481 TechnopreneurshipSource : Technology Venture, Byers T.H, et. al.www.hkilter.com

**ICE-481 Technopreneurship

ICE-481 Technopreneurship

The value chainThe purpose of a firm is to provide product that customers value.A value chain is a series of activities for transforming inputs into output that customers value.

*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*


Understanding the customerPreferencesPurchase criteriaDecision-making processBuyer behaviorFunctional needs*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*


What is operation management?An operation is a series of actionsOperation management is the supervising, monitoring, and coordinating of the activities of a firm carried out along the value chain, deals with processes that produce goods and services.A process is any activity or set of activities that take one or more inputs, transforms and adds value to them, and provides one or more outputsFunction : design processes, quality control, capacity, and operations infrastructure *ICE-481 Technopreneurship*


Penerapan Fungsi Manajemen dalam MOFungsi perencanaan: perencanaan produksi, perencanaan fasilitas, & perencanaan penggunaan sumber daya produksi.Fungsi pengorganisasian: menentukan struktur individu, grup, seksi, bagian, divisi atau departemen dalam subsistem operasi untuk mencapai tujuan organisasi.Fungsi penggerakan: memimpin, mengawasi, memotivasi karyawan untuk melaksanakan tugas.Fungsi pengendalian: mengembangkan standar dan jaringan komunikasi yang diperlukan agar pengorganisasian dan penggerakan sesuai dengan yang direncanakan dan mencapai tujuan.



*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*Production of Goods vs Delivery of Services

Wholesale/retail (clothing, food, appliances, stationery, toys, etc.).Financial services (banking, stock brokerages, insurance, etc.).Health care (doctors, dentists, hospitals, etc.).Personal services (laundry, dry cleaning, hair/beauty, gardening, etc.).Business services (data processing, e-business, delivery, employment agencies, etc.).


*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*Differences Between Goods and ServiceDegree of customer contact.Uniformity of input.Labor content of jobs.Uniformity of output.Measurement of productivity.Production and delivery.Quality assurance.Amount of inventory.Evaluation of work.Ability to patent design.


*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*The Historical Evolution of OMThe Industrial RevolutionCraft productionScientific ManagementMass productionInterchangeable partsDivision of laborThe Human Relations MovementTheory X and Theory YTheory ZDecision Models and Management ScienceThe Influence of Japanese Manufacturers


Area of Operation ManagementForecastingProduct and service designCapacity planningProcess selectionLayoutDesign of work systemQualityQuality control

Supply chain managementInventory managementAggregate planningMaterial requirements planningJust-in-time and lean systemsSchedulingProject management



ForecastingDetermine the use of the forecast Select the items or quantities that are to be forecasted.Determine the time horizon of the forecast.Short time horizon 1 to 30 daysMedium time horizon 1 to 12 monthsLong time horizon more than 1 yearSelect the forecasting model or modelsGather the data to make the forecast.Validate the forecasting modelMake the forecastImplement the results



Forecasting Model DifferencesQualitative incorporates judgmental & subjective factors into forecast.Time-Series attempts to predict the future by using historical data. Causal incorporates factors that may influence the quantity being forecasted into the model**ICE-481 Technopreneurship


Forecast (Example)**ICE-481 Technopreneurship


Naive

Wallace Garden Supply

Forecasting

PeriodActual ValueNave ForecastErrorAbsolute ErrorPercent ErrorSquared Error

January10N/A

February12102216.67%4.0

March16124425.00%16.0

April1316-3323.08%9.0

May17134423.53%16.0

June19172210.53%4.0

July1519-4426.67%16.0

August20155525.00%25.0

September2220229.09%4.0

October1922-3315.79%9.0

November2119229.52%4.0

December1921-2210.53%4.0

0.818317.76%10.091

BIASMADMAPEMSE

Standard Error (Square Root of MSE) =3.176619129

Storage Shed Sales

Sales Data


Forecasting

PeriodActual ValueThree-Month Moving Averages

January10

February12

March16

April1310+12+16/3=12.67

May1712+16+13/3=13.67

June1916+13+17/3=15.33

July1513+17+19/3=16.33

August2017+19+15/3=17.00

September2219+15+20/3=18.00

October1915+20+22/3=19.00

November2120+22+19/3=20.33

December1922+19+21/3=20.67

Storage Shed Sales

Wallace Forecast


Forecasting3 period moving average

Input DataForecast Error Analysis

PeriodActual ValueForecastErrorAbsolute errorSquared errorAbsolute % error

Month 110

Month 212

Month 316

Month 41312.6670.3330.3330.1112.56%

Month 51713.6673.3333.33311.11119.61%

Month 61915.3333.6673.66713.44419.30%

Month 71516.333-1.3331.3331.7788.89%

Month 82017.0003.0003.0009.00015.00%

Month 92218.0004.0004.00016.00018.18%

Month 101919.0000.0000.0000.0000.00%

Month 112120.3330.6670.6670.4443.17%

Month 121920.667-1.6671.6672.7788.77%

Average2.0006.07410.61%

Next period19.667MADMSEMAPE

Enter the data in the cells shaded YELLOW.

Actual Value - Forecast

Graph

10

12

16

1312.6666666667

1713.6666666667

1915.3333333333

1516.3333333333

2017

2218

1919

2120.3333333333

1920.6666666667

Actual Value

Forecast

Time

Value

Three Period Moving Average

Forecast Graph**ICE-481 Technopreneurship


Naive


Forecasting

PeriodActual ValueNave ForecastErrorAbsolute ErrorPercent ErrorSquared Error

January10N/A

February12102216.67%4.0

March16124425.00%16.0

April1316-3323.08%9.0

May17134423.53%16.0

June19172210.53%4.0

July1519-4426.67%16.0

August20155525.00%25.0

September2220229.09%4.0

October1922-3315.79%9.0

November2119229.52%4.0

December1921-2210.53%4.0

0.818317.76%10.091

BIASMADMAPEMSE

Standard Error (Square Root of MSE) =3.176619129

Storage Shed Sales

Naive Graph

1210

1612

1316

1713

1917

1519

2015

2220

1922

2119

1921

Actual Value

Nave Forecast

Period

Sheds

Wallace Garden - Naive Forecast

Sales Data


Forecasting


January10

February12

March16

April1310+12+16/3=12.67

May1712+16+13/3=13.67

June1916+13+17/3=15.33

July1513+17+19/3=16.33

August2017+19+15/3=17.00

September2219+15+20/3=18.00

October1915+20+22/3=19.00

November2120+22+19/3=20.33

December1922+19+21/3=20.67

Storage Shed Sales

Wallace Forecast





Month 110

Month 212

Month 316

Month 41312.6670.3330.3330.1112.56%

Month 51713.6673.3333.33311.11119.61%

Month 61915.3333.6673.66713.44419.30%

Month 71516.333-1.3331.3331.7788.89%

Month 82017.0003.0003.0009.00015.00%

Month 92218.0004.0004.00016.00018.18%

Month 101919.0000.0000.0000.0000.00%

Month 112120.3330.6670.6670.4443.17%

Month 121920.667-1.6671.6672.7788.77%

Average2.0006.07410.61%




Graph

10

12

16

1312.6666666667

1713.6666666667

1915.3333333333

1516.3333333333

2017

2218

1919

2120.3333333333

1920.6666666667

Actual Value

Forecast

Time

Value

Three Period Moving Average

Moving Averages**ICE-481 Technopreneurship


Sales Data


Forecasting


January10

February12

March16

April1310+12+16/3=12.67

May1712+16+13/3=13.67

June1916+13+17/3=15.33

July1513+17+19/3=16.33

August2017+19+15/3=17.00

September2219+15+20/3=18.00

October1915+20+22/3=19.00

November2120+22+19/3=20.33

December1922+19+21/3=20.67

Storage Shed Sales

Wallace Forecast





Month 110

Month 212

Month 316

Month 41312.6670.3330.3330.1112.56%

Month 51713.6673.3333.33311.11119.61%

Month 61915.3333.6673.66713.44419.30%

Month 71516.333-1.3331.3331.7788.89%

Month 82017.0003.0003.0009.00015.00%

Month 92218.0004.0004.00016.00018.18%

Month 101919.0000.0000.0000.0000.00%

Month 112120.3330.6670.6670.4443.17%

Month 121920.667-1.6671.6672.7788.77%

Average2.0006.07410.61%




Graph

10

12

16

1312.6666666667

1713.6666666667

1915.3333333333

1516.3333333333

2017

2218

1919

2120.3333333333

1920.6666666667

Actual Value

Forecast

Time

Value

3 period moving average

Moving Averages Forecast**ICE-481 Technopreneurship


Sales Data


Forecasting


January10

February12

March16

April1310+12+16/3=12.67

May1712+16+13/3=13.67

June1916+13+17/3=15.33

July1513+17+19/3=16.33

August2017+19+15/3=17.00

September2219+15+20/3=18.00

October1915+20+22/3=19.00

November2120+22+19/3=20.33

December1922+19+21/3=20.67

Storage Shed Sales

Wallace Forecast





Month 110

Month 212

Month 316

Month 41312.6670.3330.3330.1112.56%

Month 51713.6673.3333.33311.11119.61%

Month 61915.3333.6673.66713.44419.30%

Month 71516.333-1.3331.3331.7788.89%

Month 82017.0003.0003.0009.00015.00%

Month 92218.0004.0004.00016.00018.18%

Month 101919.0000.0000.0000.0000.00%

Month 112120.3330.6670.6670.4443.17%

Month 121920.667-1.6671.6672.7788.77%

Average12.0002.0006.07410.61%

Next period19.667BIASMADMSEMAPE


Graph

10

12

16

1312.6666666667

1713.6666666667

1915.3333333333

1516.3333333333

2017

2218

1919

2120.3333333333

1920.6666666667

Actual Value

Forecast

Time

Value

3 period moving average

*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*Operation Management StrategyLow cost. Outsource operations to third-world countries that have low labor costs.Scale-based strategies. Use capital-intensive methods to achieve high output volume and low unit costs.Specialization. Focus on narrow product lines or limited service to achieve higher quality.Flexible operations. Focus on quick response and/or customization.High quality. Focus on achieving higher quality than competitors.Service. Focus on various aspects of service (e.g., helpful, courteous, reliable, etc.).Location


Variables in MO Strategy (1)Economic conditions. These include the general health and direction of the economy, inflation and deflation, interest rates, tax laws, and tariffs.Political conditions. These include favorable or unfavorable attitudes toward business, political stability or instability, and wars.Legal environment. This includes antitrust laws, government regulations, trade restrictions, minimum wage laws, product liability laws and recent court experience, labor laws, and patents.Technology. This can include the rate at which product innovations are occurring, current and future process technology (equipment, materials handling), and design technology.Competition. This includes the number and strength of competitors, the basis of competition (price, quality, special features), and the ease of market entry.Markets. This includes size, location, brand loyalties, ease of entry, potential for growth, long-term stability, and demographics.



Variables in MO Strategy (2)Human resources. These include the skills and abilities of managers and workers; special talents (creativity, designing, problem solving); loyalty to the organization; expertise; dedication; and experience.Facilities and equipment. Capacities, location, age, and cost to maintain or replace can have a significant impact on operations.Financial resources. Cash flow, access to additional funding, existing debt burden, and cost of capital are important considerations.Customers. Loyalty, existing relationships, and understanding of wants and needs are important.Products and services. These include existing products and services, and the potential for new products and services.Technology. This includes existing technology, the ability to integrate new technology, and the probable impact of technology on current and future operations.Suppliers. Supplier relationships, dependability of suppliers, quality, flexibility, and service are typical considerations.Other factors include patents, labor relations, company or product image, distribution channels, relationships with distributors, maintenance of facilities and equipment, access to resources, and access to markets.*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*


*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*Strategic OM Decision Areas


*ICE-481 Technopreneurship*Productivity


Next week Review management of operations.Read marketing and sales plans.*ICE-481 Technopreneurship


*********Time Series What will happen in the future is a function of what happened in the past.Causal Predict sales of cola: temperature, season, day of week, humidity etc.********

documentf

Documents

customers value

fungsi pengorganisasian

fungsi penggerakan

perencanaan produksi

fungsi pengendalian

perencanaan fasilitas

management of operationsice

series of activities