fabby_perubahan iklim indonesia (2011)

SITUASIPERUBAHANIKLIMDIINDONESIA

FabbyTumiwaPELATIHANADAPTASIPERUBAHANIKLIM

Bagi OXFAM dan Mitra ProgramBagi OXFAMdan Mitra ProgramLombok,1114Januari 2011

Perubahan Iklim di Indonesia

Kenaikan temperatur permukaan sebesar 0,3derajat Csejak 1900,Presipitasi meningkat 2s/d3% per tahun (Hulme & Sherad 1999)%pertahun (Hulme &Sherad,1999).

Selama abad 20kenaikan temperatur permukaansebesar 0 5 derajat C (ICCSR 2010)sebesar 0,5derajat C(ICCSR,2010).

Perubahan periode ENSO(ElNinoSouthernOscillation) normalnya 3 s/d 7 tahun belakanganOscillation),normalnya 3s/d7tahun,belakanganmenjadi 2s/d5tahun (Ratag,2001).

Dinamika Temperatur:Historis &Proyeksi0C 0C

27.0

28.0

27.0

28.0

24 0

25.0

26.0

24 0

25.0

26.0

24.01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

24.02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year Year

Source:NOAA,2002 Source:Susandi,2005

ChangeofMeanTemperatureg pYear=2000

oC

Source: Susandi, 2006


oC


Curah Hujan di Indonesiaj

mm/Year

170017501800

160016501700

15001550

14001450

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000tahunSource: NOAA-CIRES (2005)

IndexKerentanan Perubahan Iklim

Forest Fires

FloodFlood

Drought

Flood Flood

Drought

Potensi Ancaman Bencana

Proyeksi Kenaikan Muka Air LautProyeksi Kenaikan Muka AirLaut

Year Luas Area yang Hilang (km2)Kenaikan Muka Laut

(m)2010 7,408 0.42050 30,120 0.562100 90,260 1.1

Sumber : Susandi, dkk2008

HilangnyaPulauPulauKecilpada2100

Sumatera Utara : Batu IslandsSumatera Barat : Sipora Island, North Bagai Island, South Bagai IslandKepulauan Riau : Singkep Island, Sebangka Island, Lingga Island, Abang Besar Island, Panuba Island, BenuwaIsland, Tambelan Island, Pinangseribu IslandBangka Belitung : Belitung Island 115 pulauBangka Belitung : Belitung IslandKalimantan Barat :Karimata Island ; Kalimantan Selatan : Laut Island, Sebuku IslandJawa Timur : Giliraya Island, Gili-genteng Island, Puteran Island, Sapudi Island, Raas Island, Kangean IslandsBali : Nusa Penida Island ; NTB : Giligede Island,Sangeang Island ; NTT : Solor Island, Pantar Island, AdonaraIslandSulawesi Selatan : Selayar Island Tanah Jampea Island Bonerate Island Kaloatoa Island

115 pulau

Sulawesi Selatan : Selayar Island, Tanah Jampea Island, Bonerate Island, Kaloatoa IslandSulawesi Tenggara : Tukang Besi Islands ; Sulawesi Tengah : Banggai IslandMaluku Utara : Mangole Island, Tubulai Island, Obi Island, Obilatu Island, Damar Island, Gebe IslandMaluku : Watubela Islands, Wetar Island,Tanibar Islands, Babar Island, Kai IslandsWest Papua : Rumberpon Island, Gag Island Sumber : Susandi, dkk, 2008

NaturalDisasters,Indonesia(19072007)

12 000 000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

0

0

0

U

S

D

)

Economic lost up to 18

The Top 10 natural disasters occurred in the period of 1907 2007 2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

E

c

o

n

o

m

i

c

D

a

m

a

g

e

(

0 Economiclostupto18billionUSD

period of 1907-2007 were mostly climate related disasters, i.e. flood, drought, fires

0

2,000,000

Sep-97 26-Dec-04

27-May-06

31-Jan-07

9-Feb-96

27-Jan-02

Feb-98 29-Nov-98

14-Jul-76

16-Feb-94

Wild Fires

Wave/ Surge

Earth quake

Flood Wild Fires

Earthquakeg

Mostoccurredrecently( ) h i i d

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

e

o

p

l

e

A

f

f

e

c

t

e

d

(1990s) theintensityandfrequencyofextremeclimateeventshaveincreased recently

No.ofpeopleaffectedupto3.5million

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

N

u

m

b

e

r

o

f

P

e

increasedrecently

1972 27-May-06

Oct-94 Sep-97 23-Dec-06

9-Feb-96

26-Dec-04

14-Mar-66

27-Jan-02

1-Jan-86

Drought Earth quake

Wild Fires

Drought Flood Wave / Surge

Flood Epi-demic

Source:TheOFDA/CREDInternationalDisasterDatabase(2007)

LowAdaptiveCapacitytomanagecurrent Climate RiskscurrentClimateRisks

y Intensity and frequency of climate extreme events increased 100

150

200

r

o

f

F

l

o

o

d

E

v

e

n

t

s

o In the period 2001-2004, about 530 floods events is recorded (Boer et al., 2007) 0

50

N

u

m

b

e

r

2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004

o Frequency of strong El Nino events

Loss due to hazards has tended to

o FrequencyofstrongElNinoeventsalsoincreased(NCDC,NOAA)

Lossduetohazardshastendedtoincrease.Forexample,riceproductionlossduetodroughtintheperiod19811990about100thousand tons / year/district and 0 5

1.0

1.5

2.0

a

d

i

(

j

u

t

a

t

o

n

)

NormalExtreme

thousandtons/year/districtandintheperiodof19912000,increasedto300thousandton/year/district(BoerandLas,2003) -1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5a

n

g

a

n

P

r

o

d

u

k

s

i

P

a

-2.0

-1.5

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

K

e

h

i

l

a

Dampak kenaikan muka airlaut 50cmdi P.Jawa akan mengurangi produksipadi nasional 1 2 juta ton per tahun Disamping peningkatan tinggi muka airpadi nasional 1.2juta tonpertahun.Disamping peningkatan tinggi muka airlaut,dampak perubahan iklim berdasarkan kecenderungan perubahan suhudan curah hujan saat ini akan menurunkan produksi padi Indonesiasebesar11.2 juta ton per tahun. Sementara itu, penurunan produksi jagung, kedelai11.2juta tonpertahun.Sementara itu,penurunan produksi jagung,kedelaidan tebu diprediksikan masingmasing 13.6%,12,4%dan 7,6%.(I.Handoko,dkk,SeameoBiotrop,2008)

Daftar Acuan

Bappenas,2010:ICCSRBasisSaintifik:Analisis dan Proyeksi Suhu danCurah Hujan.

KLH,2007:IndonesiaCountryReport:ClimateVariabilityandClimateChange,UNDP.

Susandi,Armi(2007):GlobalClimateChangeandItsImpactonIndonesia,presentasi (ppt).

Supangat,Agus():Kajian Perubahan Iklim,manuscriptp g , g ( ) j , p

Simulasi Kenaikan Muka Air Laut di JakartaSimulasi Kenaikan Muka AirLaut di Jakarta(Susandietal,2006)

2005

North

Source: Susandi et al, 2006

2010

Cilincing

TanjungPriok

North


2015

Koja

Cilincing

PademanganTanjungPriok

Koja

North


2020

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

North


2025

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

Penjaringan

North


2030

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

Penjaringan

SoekarnoHattaAirportNorth


2035

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

Penjaringan



2040

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

Penjaringan



2045

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

Penjaringan



2050

Koja

Cilincing


Koja

Penjaringan



2080

NationalMonument(2080?)

Koja

Cilincing

(2080?)


Koja

Penjaringan



2065

NationalMonument(2080?)

Koja

Cilincing

(2080?)

BPPT(2065?)


Koja

Penjaringan



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fabby_perubahan iklim indonesia (2011)

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