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Fabrication Market Outlook

August | 2020

A PUBLICATION OF UXC.COM

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Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 Table of Contents

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Table of Contents Executive Summary ________________________________________________________________________ i

Essay: HALEU Implications for the Fabrication Industry ............................................................................................... i Reactor Developments and LWR Fuel Demand Forecasts .......................................................................................... i UxC Utility Fabrication Market Survey ......................................................................................................................... ii The World’s LWR Nuclear Fuel Fabricators ................................................................................................................. ii Supply and Demand in the Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Industry ..................................................................................... iii LWR Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Markets ....................................................................................................................... iii LWR Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Prices ......................................................................................................................... iv Non-LWR Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Markets .............................................................................................................. iv

Introduction and Overview ________________________________________________________________ 10 What’s New in the 2020 Report? ............................................................................................................................... 11

• FMO Reference Document .............................................................................................................................. 12 Structure of Report ..................................................................................................................................................... 13

1 – Essay: HALEU Implications for the Fabrication Industry _____________________________________ 15 Factors Promoting HALEU ......................................................................................................................................... 15

• Higher Burnup Fuels ........................................................................................................................................ 15 • Accident Tolerant Fuels ................................................................................................................................... 16 • Advanced Reactors.......................................................................................................................................... 16

Challenges to HALEU Supply and Logistics .............................................................................................................. 17 • Supply of HALEU ............................................................................................................................................. 18 • Commercial and Pricing Issues ....................................................................................................................... 19 • Transportation and Packaging ......................................................................................................................... 19

Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Challenges ......................................................................................................................... 20 Current Efforts to Commercialize HALEU .................................................................................................................. 21

• United States ................................................................................................................................................... 21 GNF-A .................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Framatome ........................................................................................................................................................... 22 Westinghouse ....................................................................................................................................................... 22

• Russia .............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Future Outlook for HALEU Fuel Usage ...................................................................................................................... 24

2 – Reactor Developments and Demand Outlook ______________________________________________ 25 UxC Nuclear Power Regions ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Reactor Capacities Anticipated by Country by 2035 .................................................................................................. 27 Alternative UxC Reactor Forecast Cases .................................................................................................................. 30 Current and Future Reactor Types ............................................................................................................................ 31

• Currently Operating Reactors .......................................................................................................................... 31 • New Reactors .................................................................................................................................................. 32

New Reactor Types .............................................................................................................................................. 33 New Reactor Vendors .......................................................................................................................................... 33

Fuel Fabrication Demand Forecasts .......................................................................................................................... 35 • UxC Fabrication Market Demand Modeling ..................................................................................................... 35

UxC Requirements Model (URM) ......................................................................................................................... 35 Use of URM Fabrication Demand Forecasts ........................................................................................................ 35

• UxC Fabrication Demand Forecasts ................................................................................................................ 36 Global LWR Fuel Fabrication Requirements ........................................................................................................ 36 Regional LWR Fuel Fabrication Requirements..................................................................................................... 37 LWR Fabrication Requirements by Fuel Type ...................................................................................................... 38

Conclusions from Demand Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 39

3 – Results from UxC Utility Fabrication Market Survey ________________________________________ 40 State of the Market ..................................................................................................................................................... 40 Cycle Length .............................................................................................................................................................. 41 New Contract Scope .................................................................................................................................................. 41

Table of Contents Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

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Procurement Lead Time ............................................................................................................................................. 42 Procurement Approach .............................................................................................................................................. 42 Vendor Qualification ................................................................................................................................................... 43 Adequacy of Competition ........................................................................................................................................... 43 Vendors Declining to Bid ............................................................................................................................................ 44 Fuel Delivery Schedules and Inventories ................................................................................................................... 44 Scope of Services Under Fuel Supply Contracts ....................................................................................................... 45 Consistency of Supply ................................................................................................................................................ 45 Fuel Contracting Criteria ............................................................................................................................................ 46 Views on Accident Tolerant Fuels .............................................................................................................................. 46

• Interest in ATFs ................................................................................................................................................ 46 • Drivers Promoting ATF Deployment ................................................................................................................ 47 • Timeframe for ATF Commercialization ............................................................................................................ 47

Impacts from COVID-19 Pandemic ............................................................................................................................ 48 • Interruptions to Scheduled Deliveries .............................................................................................................. 48 • Impacts on Views on Security of Supply .......................................................................................................... 48 • Impacts on Procurement Strategies ................................................................................................................. 48 • Lessons Learned from the Pandemic .............................................................................................................. 48

Major Industry Trends ................................................................................................................................................ 49 Conclusions from Utility Survey .................................................................................................................................. 50 Appreciation for our Survey Respondents .................................................................................................................. 51

4 – The World’s Nuclear Fuel Fabricators _____________________________________________________ 52 The Mega-Vendors ..................................................................................................................................................... 54

• Framatome ....................................................................................................................................................... 54 Ownership and Organization ................................................................................................................................. 55

Ownership ...................................................................................................................................................... 55 Current Organization ...................................................................................................................................... 55

Fuel Business Unit Overview ................................................................................................................................ 55 European Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................. 56

Production Facilities ....................................................................................................................................... 56 Markets and Products .................................................................................................................................... 57

• TVEL Fuel Company Subcontract ....................................................................................................... 58 Framatome’s Fuel Assembly Designs ............................................................................................................ 58

U.S. Fuel Fabrication Operations .......................................................................................................................... 62 Production Facilities ....................................................................................................................................... 62 Markets and Products .................................................................................................................................... 62 Accident Tolerant Fuel and Advanced Fuel Developments ........................................................................... 63 Enfission Joint Venture with Lightbridge ........................................................................................................ 64

Japanese Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................. 64 Chinese Fuel Fabrication Operations .................................................................................................................... 65 Kazakh Fuel Fabrication Operations ..................................................................................................................... 65 Comprehensive Fuel Offerings.............................................................................................................................. 65 Possible Future Developments ............................................................................................................................. 66

• Global Nuclear Fuel (GNF) .............................................................................................................................. 68 Ownership and Organization ................................................................................................................................. 68 U.S. and European Fuel Fabrication Operations................................................................................................... 69

Production Facilities ....................................................................................................................................... 69 Markets and Products .................................................................................................................................... 69

• Strategic Alliance with TVEL Fuel Company ....................................................................................... 70 GNF’s Fuel Assembly Designs ...................................................................................................................... 71 Accident Tolerant Fuel Developments ........................................................................................................... 73

Japanese Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................. 73 Production Facilities ....................................................................................................................................... 73 Markets and Products .................................................................................................................................... 74

Comprehensive Fuel Offerings.............................................................................................................................. 75 Possible Future Developments ............................................................................................................................. 75

• Westinghouse Electric Company ..................................................................................................................... 77 Ownership and Organization ................................................................................................................................. 77

Ownership ...................................................................................................................................................... 77 Organization ................................................................................................................................................... 78

Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 Table of Contents

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• Regional Organizations ...................................................................................................................... 78 • Westinghouse Nuclear Fuel Division Overview .................................................................................. 79 • Agreements and Joint Ventures with Foreign Suppliers ..................................................................... 80

European Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................. 81 Westinghouse Electric Sweden, Västerås Nuclear Fuel Factory ................................................................... 81 Springfields Fuels, Ltd. – Preston, Lancashire, UK ....................................................................................... 82 Markets and Products ................................................................................................................................... 83

U.S. Fuel Fabrication Operations ......................................................................................................................... 84 Columbia Fuel Fabrication Facility ................................................................................................................ 84

• Scrubber Incident in 2016 ................................................................................................................... 85 • Uranium Solution Leak in 2018 ........................................................................................................... 85 • Radioactive Waste Container Leak in 2019 ........................................................................................ 85 • Additional Safety Infractions, Liner Holes, and Lagoon Leak in 2020 ................................................. 86 • Impacts on License Renewal Application Review ............................................................................... 86

Windsor Fuel Components Facility ................................................................................................................ 87 Markets and Products ................................................................................................................................... 87 Westinghouse Fuel Assembly Designs ......................................................................................................... 87 Accident Tolerant Fuel Developments ........................................................................................................... 90

VVER Fuel Fabrication Operations ....................................................................................................................... 91 VVER-1000 ................................................................................................................................................... 91 VVER-440 ..................................................................................................................................................... 93 Potential Fuel Fabrication JV with Ukraine .................................................................................................... 94 Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 94

Chinese Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................... 94 Comprehensive Fuel Offerings ............................................................................................................................. 94 Possible Future Developments ............................................................................................................................. 95

Emerging International Suppliers ............................................................................................................................... 96 • TVEL Fuel Company (TVEL) ........................................................................................................................... 96

Ownership and Organization ................................................................................................................................ 96 Production Facilities ............................................................................................................................................. 98

MSZ – Elektrostal .......................................................................................................................................... 99 • Production Capacity ............................................................................................................................ 99 • MSZ Fuel Designs .............................................................................................................................. 99 • Modernization Program .................................................................................................................... 101

NCCP – Novosibirsk .................................................................................................................................... 102 Plans for Expanding Fabrication Capability ........................................................................................................ 102 Consolidation of TVEL Fabrication Activities ...................................................................................................... 103 Technical and Engineering Support .................................................................................................................... 104 Past, Present, and Future Markets ..................................................................................................................... 104

VVER Fuel Markets ..................................................................................................................................... 105 • VVER-1000 Market ........................................................................................................................... 105 • VVER-440 Market ............................................................................................................................. 106 • VVER-1200 Market ........................................................................................................................... 108

BWR and PWR Fuel Markets ...................................................................................................................... 108 • Framatome Subcontract ................................................................................................................... 108 • TVS-KVADRAT – TVEL’s PWR Reload Fuel Initiative ..................................................................... 109

PHWR Fuel Market ..................................................................................................................................... 111 TVEL Technology and Fuel Designs .................................................................................................................. 111

VVER-440 Fuel Assemblies ........................................................................................................................ 111 VVER-1000 Fuel Assemblies ...................................................................................................................... 113 Western PWR Fuel Assemblies .................................................................................................................. 116 Accident Tolerant Fuel Developments ......................................................................................................... 117

Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 118 • KEPCO Nuclear Fuel (KNF) .......................................................................................................................... 119

Ownership and Organization .............................................................................................................................. 119 Fuel Fabrication Operations ............................................................................................................................... 119 Current and Future Markets ............................................................................................................................... 122

Domestic Market ......................................................................................................................................... 122 Foreign Markets .......................................................................................................................................... 122

KNF Fuel Designs .............................................................................................................................................. 124 Comprehensive Fuel Offerings ........................................................................................................................... 126 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 126

Regional and National Fuel Suppliers ...................................................................................................................... 128

Table of Contents Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

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• ENUSA Industrias Avanzadas, S.A. (ENUSA) – Spain.................................................................................. 129 Ownership and Organization ............................................................................................................................... 129 Fuel Fabrication Operations – Juzbado Nuclear Fuel Factory ............................................................................ 130 Current and Future Markets ................................................................................................................................ 131

Spanish Market ............................................................................................................................................ 131 Foreign Markets ........................................................................................................................................... 132

ENUSA Fuel Assembly Designs ......................................................................................................................... 134 Comprehensive Fuel Offerings............................................................................................................................ 135 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 135

• Editor’s Note on Japan ................................................................................................................................... 136 Potential Consolidation ....................................................................................................................................... 136

• Mitsubishi Nuclear Fuel (MNF) – Japan ......................................................................................................... 137 Ownership and Organization ............................................................................................................................... 137 Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................................ 138

Japanese Operations – Tokai-mura Works .................................................................................................. 138 Foreign Operations ...................................................................................................................................... 139

Current and Future Markets ................................................................................................................................ 139 Japanese Market ......................................................................................................................................... 139 Foreign Markets ........................................................................................................................................... 140

MNF Fuel Designs .............................................................................................................................................. 140 Domestic Designs ........................................................................................................................................ 140 US-APWR Fuel Assembly ............................................................................................................................ 141

Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 142 • Nuclear Fuel Industries (NFI) – Japan ........................................................................................................... 143

Ownership and Organization ............................................................................................................................... 143 Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................................ 143 Current and Future Markets ................................................................................................................................ 144

Japanese Market ......................................................................................................................................... 144 Foreign Markets ........................................................................................................................................... 145

NFI Fuel Designs ................................................................................................................................................ 145 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 146

• China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)................................................................................................. 147 Corporate Structure and Manufacturing Facilities ............................................................................................... 147 Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................................ 148

Yibin Fabrication Plant ................................................................................................................................. 148 Baotou Fabrication Plant .............................................................................................................................. 149 Fuel Assembly Research & Development .................................................................................................... 151 New Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................................ 152 Other Fabrication-Related Ventures ............................................................................................................ 152

Current and Future Markets ................................................................................................................................ 153 Domestic Market .......................................................................................................................................... 153 Foreign Markets ........................................................................................................................................... 153

CNNC PWR Fuel Assemblies ............................................................................................................................. 154 Comprehensive Fuel Offerings............................................................................................................................ 157 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 157

• Industrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB) .............................................................................................................. 158 Ownership and Organization ............................................................................................................................... 158 Fuel Fabrication Operations – Resende Nuclear Fuel Factory (FCN) ................................................................. 159 Current and Future Markets ................................................................................................................................ 159 INB Fuel Assembly Designs ................................................................................................................................ 160 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 161

• Nuclear Fuel Complex – India ........................................................................................................................ 162 Ownership and Organization ............................................................................................................................... 162 Fuel Fabrication Operations ................................................................................................................................ 163 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 164

• Kazatomprom – Kazakhstan .......................................................................................................................... 165 Ownership and Organization ............................................................................................................................... 165 Fuel Fabrication Operations – Ulba Metallurgical Plant ...................................................................................... 166

Historical Background .................................................................................................................................. 166 Production Capacity ..................................................................................................................................... 166 Fabrication Joint Ventures ........................................................................................................................... 168

• Framatome ........................................................................................................................................ 168 • China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) ............................................................................ 168 • Russia ............................................................................................................................................... 169

Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 Table of Contents

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• Ukraine ............................................................................................................................................. 169 Ownership Share in Westinghouse ............................................................................................................. 170

Current and Future Markets ............................................................................................................................... 170 Russia ......................................................................................................................................................... 170 Western Fuel Fabricators ............................................................................................................................ 170 Japan .......................................................................................................................................................... 171 China ........................................................................................................................................................... 172

Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 172 • Nuclear Fuel – Ukraine .................................................................................................................................. 173

Ownership and Organization .............................................................................................................................. 173 Fuel Fabrication Operations ............................................................................................................................... 173

Joint Venture with TVEL .............................................................................................................................. 173 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 174

• Fuel Manufacturing Plant – Iran ..................................................................................................................... 176 Possible Future Developments ........................................................................................................................... 176

Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fuel Fabrication ....................................................................................................................... 177 • France ............................................................................................................................................................ 177 • United Kingdom ............................................................................................................................................. 179 • Japan ............................................................................................................................................................. 180 • United States ................................................................................................................................................. 182 • China.............................................................................................................................................................. 183 • Russia ............................................................................................................................................................ 185

REMIX Fuel ........................................................................................................................................................ 186 Dual-Component Nuclear Power System ........................................................................................................... 186

5 – Supply and Demand Analysis __________________________________________________________ 188 Forecast of Supply Capability .................................................................................................................................. 188 Worldwide Supply and Demand ............................................................................................................................... 190 Western European Supply and Demand .................................................................................................................. 193 North America/Taiwan Supply and Demand ............................................................................................................ 195 Asian Supply and Demand ....................................................................................................................................... 196 Supply and Demand for VVER Reactors ................................................................................................................. 198 Other Supply Considerations ................................................................................................................................... 199 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................................. 200

6 – Global and Regional Market Analysis ___________________________________________________ 201 BWR Fuel Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 202

• Western European BWR Fabrication Market ................................................................................................. 202 • North American BWR Fabrication Market ...................................................................................................... 205 • Asian BWR Fabrication Market ...................................................................................................................... 206

Japan .................................................................................................................................................................. 206 Taiwan ................................................................................................................................................................ 207

PWR Fuel Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 208 • Western European PWR Fabrication Market ................................................................................................. 208

French PWR Fuel Market ................................................................................................................................... 210 PWR Fuel Market in the Balance of Western Europe ......................................................................................... 211 Framatome Units ................................................................................................................................................ 211 Siemens/KWU Units ........................................................................................................................................... 211 Westinghouse Units ............................................................................................................................................ 212

• U.S. PWR Fabrication Market ........................................................................................................................ 214 Babcock & Wilcox Units ...................................................................................................................................... 215 Combustion Engineering Units ........................................................................................................................... 215 Westinghouse Units ............................................................................................................................................ 215

• Asian and Other PWR Fabrication Markets ................................................................................................... 217 Japan .................................................................................................................................................................. 217 Taiwan ................................................................................................................................................................ 217 South Korea........................................................................................................................................................ 217 China .................................................................................................................................................................. 218 Others ................................................................................................................................................................. 218

• VVER Fabrication Market .............................................................................................................................. 219

Table of Contents Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

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7 – Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Prices _________________________________________________________ 220 Fuel Fabrication Price Background .......................................................................................................................... 220

• Utility Views on Fabrication Costs Within Total Fuel Expenditures ................................................................ 222 Fuel Fabrication Price Formation ............................................................................................................................. 223 History of Fuel Fabrication Prices ............................................................................................................................ 225 Initial Core and Reload Batch Prices........................................................................................................................ 226 Current and Future Fabrication Prices ..................................................................................................................... 227

• Utility Survey Responses ............................................................................................................................... 227 Current Fabrication Prices .................................................................................................................................. 227 Future Price Trends ............................................................................................................................................ 228

• UxC Fabrication Price Forecast ..................................................................................................................... 229 Current Prices ..................................................................................................................................................... 229 Factors Affecting Future Prices ........................................................................................................................... 230 Developments Retarding Price Increases ........................................................................................................... 231 Developments Promoting Price Increases .......................................................................................................... 231 Future Path of Fabrication Prices ........................................................................................................................ 233

• U.S. Fabrication Price Projections ................................................................................................................. 234 • Prices Outside the U.S. .................................................................................................................................. 236

Western Europe .................................................................................................................................................. 236 Japan .................................................................................................................................................................. 237 China and South Korea ....................................................................................................................................... 237 VVER Fuel .......................................................................................................................................................... 237

8 – Non-LWR Fuel Fabrication Markets ______________________________________________________ 238 Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor Fuel ................................................................................................................... 238

• PHWR Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 238 • PHWR Fuel Overview .................................................................................................................................... 238 • PHWR Fuel Fabricators ................................................................................................................................. 240

Cameco Fuel Manufacturing (Canada) ............................................................................................................... 241 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 241 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 242 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 242

BWXT Nuclear Energy Canada (Canada) ........................................................................................................... 242 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 243 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 243 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 244

KEPCO Nuclear Fuel (South Korea) ................................................................................................................... 244 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 244 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 244 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 244

China National Nuclear Corporation (China) ....................................................................................................... 244 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 245 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 245 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 245

Fabrica de Combustibil Nuclear (Romania) ........................................................................................................ 246 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 246 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 246 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 246

CONUAR S.A. (Argentina) .................................................................................................................................. 247 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 247 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 247 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 247

Nuclear Fuel Complex (India).............................................................................................................................. 248 Description of Fabrication Facilities ............................................................................................................. 248 Domestic and Foreign Markets Served ........................................................................................................ 249 Fuel Assembly Designs and Services .......................................................................................................... 249

Additional PHWR Fuel Related Companies ........................................................................................................ 250 SNC-Lavalin (Canada) ........................................................................................................................................ 250 Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (Canada) ........................................................................................................... 250 TVEL Fuel Company (Russia)............................................................................................................................. 250 Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan) ................................................................................................................................ 251

• PHWR Fuel Supply and Demand Analysis .................................................................................................... 251

Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 List of Figures

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• PHWR Fuel Market Analysis.......................................................................................................................... 252 Gas Cooled Reactor Fuel ......................................................................................................................................... 253

• GCR Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 253 • Springfields Fuels Ltd. (AGR) ........................................................................................................................ 253 • AGR Fuel Supply and Demand...................................................................................................................... 255

Light Water Cooled, Graphite Moderated Reactor Fuel ........................................................................................... 256 • LGR Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 256 • LGR Fuel Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 256 • LGR Fuel Supply and Demand Analysis........................................................................................................ 258

Small Modular and Advanced Reactor Fuel ............................................................................................................. 260 • SMR Fuel Fabrication Overview .................................................................................................................... 261 • Unique SMR Fuel Designs............................................................................................................................. 262 • Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 264

Appendix A – UxC 2020 Fuel Fabrication Market Survey Sample ________________________________ 265

Appendix B – Fuel Fabricator Contact Information ___________________________________________ 270 The Mega-Vendors .................................................................................................................................................. 270 National and Regional Fuel Fabrication Suppliers ................................................................................................... 271

Glossary ______________________________________________________________________________ 272

List of Figures

Figure 1. Fuel Burnup / Enrichment Impact .............................................................................................................. 16 Figure 2. HALEU Nuclear Fuel Cycle ....................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3. Focus Areas for Integrating HALEU Into the Commercial Nuclear Fuel Cycle ......................................... 20 Figure 4. Map of UxC Nuclear Regions .................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 5. UxC Nuclear Generating Capacity Forecast, 2008-2035 .......................................................................... 28 Figure 6. UxC Base, High, and Low Case Nuclear Capacity Forecasts, 2008-2035 ............................................... 30 Figure 7. Percentages of Different Operating Reactor Types .................................................................................. 31 Figure 8. New Reactor Startups and Total MWe Added, 2020-2030 ....................................................................... 32 Figure 9. Percentages of New Reactor Types, 2020-2030 ...................................................................................... 33 Figure 10. Percentages of New Reactor Vendors, 2020-2030 ................................................................................. 34 Figure 11. UxC Global LWR Fabrication Demand Forecast Cases, 2008-2035 ...................................................... 36 Figure 12. UxC Regional LWR Base Case Fabrication Demand Forecast, 2008-2035 .......................................... 37 Figure 13. UxC Fabrication Demand Forecast by Fuel Type, 2008-2035 ................................................................ 38 Figure 14. Utility Responses to Question on “Services Under Contract” ................................................................. 45 Figure 15. Response to Question on Timing of ATF Commercialization ................................................................. 47 Figure 16. Framatome ATRIUM 10XM Fuel Assembly ............................................................................................ 59 Figure 17. Framatome AGORA H (left), HTP (center) and GAIA (right) Fuel Assemblies ....................................... 60 Figure 18. Framatome ATRIUM 11 Fuel Assembly Photo (left) and Graphic (right) ................................................ 61 Figure 19. GNF Joint Venture Structure ................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 20. GNF-A Fuel Loading Experience, 1999-2019 ......................................................................................... 71 Figure 21. GNF-A GNF2.02 Fuel Assembly ............................................................................................................. 71 Figure 22. GNF-A GNF3 Fuel Assembly .................................................................................................................. 72 Figure 23. Westinghouse SVEA Optima 2, Optima 3, and Triton11 BWR Fuel Assemblies ................................... 88 Figure 24. Westinghouse PRIME, RFA-2, NGF, CE16NGF, and AP1000 PWR Fuel Assemblies ......................... 89 Figure 25. Westinghouse RWFA Fuel Assembly for VVER-1000 ............................................................................ 92 Figure 26. MSZ’s VVER-1000 Fuel Fabrication Line ............................................................................................. 101 Figure 27. Evolution of TVEL’s VVER-440 Fuel Designs ....................................................................................... 112 Figure 28. TVEL VVER-440 TVS ARK Fuel Assembly (top) and RK-3 Assembly (bottom) .................................. 113 Figure 29. Evolution of TVEL’s VVER-1000 Fuel Designs ..................................................................................... 114

List of Figures Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

8 © 2020 UxC

Figure 30. TVEL TVSA-12 and TVS-4A Fuel Assemblies ..................................................................................... 116 Figure 31. TVEL TVS-KVADRAT Fuel Assembly .................................................................................................. 117 Figure 32. KNF PLUS7 (left) and ACE7 (right) Fuel Assemblies ........................................................................... 124 Figure 33. KNF HIPER16 (left) and HIPER17 (right) Fuel Assemblies .................................................................. 125 Figure 34. ENUSA 17x17 MAEF Fuel Assembly ................................................................................................... 134 Figure 35. MNF 17x17 Fuel Assembly ................................................................................................................... 141 Figure 36. MNF US-APWR 17x17 Fuel Assembly ................................................................................................. 142 Figure 37. NFI 9x9 BWR Fuel Assembly ................................................................................................................ 145 Figure 38. NFI 17x 17 PWR Fuel Assembly ........................................................................................................... 146 Figure 39. First AP1000 Fuel Assemblies Produced in China ............................................................................... 150 Figure 40. Chinese PWR Fuel Assemblies at CNNC’s Yibin Plant ........................................................................ 154 Figure 41. CNNC’s CF3 Fuel Assembly ................................................................................................................. 155 Figure 42. CAP-1400 Prototype Fuel Assembly ..................................................................................................... 156 Figure 43. INB Fuel Assemblies at the Resende Plant .......................................................................................... 160 Figure 44. Russia’s Dual-Component Nuclear Power System ............................................................................... 187 Figure 45. Projected Worldwide LWR Supply, 2008-2035 ..................................................................................... 188 Figure 46. Worldwide LWR Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 ............................................................ 191 Figure 47. Western Europe LWR Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 ................................................... 193 Figure 48. North American/Taiwan LWR Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035........................................ 195 Figure 49. Asian LWR Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 .................................................................... 196 Figure 50. VVER Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 ............................................................................. 198 Figure 51. Western European BWR Fabrication Market Shares ........................................................................... 203 Figure 52. North American BWR Fabrication Market Shares ................................................................................ 205 Figure 53. Western European PWR Fabrication Market Shares ........................................................................... 209 Figure 54. U.S. PWR Fabrication Market Shares ................................................................................................... 214 Figure 55. Total LWR Nuclear Fuel Price Breakdown ........................................................................................... 221 Figure 56. Response to Question on Fabrication as Percent of Fuel Costs .......................................................... 222 Figure 57. Response to Question on Fabrication Cost Direction in Next 5 Years ................................................. 223 Figure 58. Utility Responses to Question on “Future Fabrication Price Trends” .................................................... 228 Figure 59. BWR Fabrication Price Forecast, 2020-2035 ....................................................................................... 235 Figure 60. PWR Fabrication Price Forecast, 2020-2035 ....................................................................................... 235 Figure 61. PHWR Fuel Fabrication Manufacturing Process .................................................................................. 239 Figure 62. PHWR Fuel Bundle ............................................................................................................................... 239 Figure 63. NFC’s PHWR Fuel Assembly Designs .................................................................................................. 249 Figure 64. PHWR Fuel Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 ................................................................... 252 Figure 65. AGR Fuel Bundle .................................................................................................................................. 254 Figure 66. AGR Fuel Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 ....................................................................... 255 Figure 67. RBMK-1000 Fuel Assembly .................................................................................................................. 257 Figure 68. LGR Fuel Fabrication Supply and Demand, 2008-2035 ....................................................................... 259 Figure 69. HoltecSMR-160 Fuel Core Cartridge .................................................................................................... 262 Figure 70. China HTR-PM TRISO Coated Particles and Fuel Spheres ................................................................. 263 Figure 71. China’s Pilot HTR Fuel Production Line ................................................................................................ 263

Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 List of Tables

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List of Tables

Table 1. Reactor Units & Nuclear Capacities Anticipated by Country by 2035 ........................................................ 28 Table 2. UxC Base, High, and Low Case Nuclear Reactor and Capacity Forecasts, 2018-2035 ........................... 30 Table 3. Operating Reactor Types ........................................................................................................................... 31 Table 4. New Reactor Startups by Year, 2020-2030 ................................................................................................ 32 Table 5. New Reactor Types, 2020-2030 ................................................................................................................. 33 Table 6. New Reactor Vendors, 2020-2030 ............................................................................................................. 34 Table 7. UxC Global LWR Fabrication Demand Forecast Cases, 2019-2035 ......................................................... 36 Table 8. UxC Regional LWR Fabrication Demand Forecasts, 2019-2035 ............................................................... 37 Table 9. UxC Regional LWR Fabrication Demand Forecasts, 2019-2035 ............................................................... 38 Table 10. Survey Responses to Question on “State of the Market” ......................................................................... 40 Table 11. Worldwide LWR Fuel Fabrication Capacity in 2020 ................................................................................. 53 Table 12. TVEL Fuel Production Levels, 2014-2017 ................................................................................................ 98 Table 13. UMP Production, 2015-2017 .................................................................................................................. 167 Table 14. Base Case UxC Fabrication Supply Capacity Forecast, 2020-2035 ...................................................... 190 Table 15. Number of European BWR Plants Supplied ........................................................................................... 203 Table 16. Number of Western European PWR Plants Supplied* ........................................................................... 211 Table 17. Number of U.S. PWR Plants Supplied ................................................................................................... 214 Table 18. Historical Fabrication Prices, 2008-2019 ................................................................................................ 226 Table 19. Fabrication Price Projection, 2020-2035 ................................................................................................ 236 Table 20. Current Worldwide PHWR Fuel Fabrication Capacity ............................................................................ 240 Table 21. Comparative Data for Ten Leading SMR and Advanced Reactor Designs ........................................... 261 Table B-1. Mega-Vendor Fabrication Supplier Contacts ........................................................................................ 270 Table B-2. National and Regional Fuel Fabrication Supplier Contacts .................................................................. 271 Table C-1. Glossary of Terms ................................................................................................................................. 272

Introduction and Overview Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

10 © 2020 UxC

Introduction and Overview

UxC, LLC (UxC) is pleased to present the 2020 Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO)

report, which is the 14th annual edition in this series. This year’s report builds upon

the significant enhancements made in previous editions as part of our ongoing effort

to improve information exchange and understanding in the all-important global nu-

clear fuel fabrication marketplace.

The global nuclear power industry has seen numerous important developments over

the past decade, but it continues to be heavily shaped by the aftermath of the 2011

Fukushima accident. Recent years have seen a steady flow of reactor retirements in

certain regions, especially in key markets in North America, Western Europe, and

Japan, coupled with ongoing expansions of nuclear power in other key markets, such

as China, Russia, and India. Thus, the markets for fuel fabrication are adapting to

these important shifts in nuclear power around the world.

Globally, demand for nuclear fuel has not seen significant increases over the past few

years, and the forecasts for its growth in the coming decades have also diminished.

Nevertheless, the world will clearly still need substantial amounts of nuclear fuel fab-

rication, especially in the more rapid growth regions, and thus the industry will need

to respond to various competing trends on the demand side.

On the supply side, there have been numerous events affecting the future outlooks

and operating structures for key fabrication vendors. In France, Framatome’s fuel

fabrication division is now fully operating under EDF’s ownership together with the

reactor construction and services divisions. Westinghouse’s ownership by Brookfield

Business Partners is leading to various changes, including at the executive level,

along with cost-cutting and streamlining efforts. Meanwhile, Toshiba has reportedly

left the Global Nuclear Fuel (GNF) partnership, allowing GE and Hitachi to fold the

fuel fabrication business into their existing GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy joint venture.

Russian vendor TVEL, which is still the dominant VVER fuel supplier despite in-

roads by Westinghouse in Ukraine, has also been making major strides in its efforts

to enter the western PWR reload market. However, following its first contract to sup-

ply a portion of the fuel for Vattenfall’s Ringhals 3 reactor in Sweden, TVEL has hit

serious roadblocks in its effort to team with GNF to introduce PWR reload fuel in the

U.S. as the U.S. government has refused to grant the necessary technology transfer

permits to the Russian company. As such, geopolitical concerns continue to hover

over TVEL’s ability to expand its market reach.

These collective market developments, coupled with various other issues in the nu-

clear industry, in general, and the fuel fabrication industry, in particular, have sug-

gested that there could be changes in worldwide fabrication markets. The interac-

tions between buyers and sellers in the years ahead and our assessment of such

changes are addressed throughout this FMO report.

Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 Introduction and Overview

© 2020 UxC 11

As with previous editions, the primary focus of this FMO report is fuel fabrication for

large light water reactors (LWRs) – boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized

water reactors (PWRs) – since these comprise the great majority of the nuclear plants

currently in operation around the world and those planned for the future. The Rus-

sian VVER reactors installed in Russia, Eastern Europe, and other countries are, in

fact, PWRs.

There are also several pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) operating in Can-

ada and other nations, advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGRs) in the United Kingdom,

and several light water-cooled, graphite-moderated reactors (LGRs) in Russia

(RBMK and EGP reactors). However, these regions/reactors represent unique fuel

fabrication markets, which are covered at the end of this report.

In the chapters that follow, we address many of the diverse commercial, institutional,

economic, and technical aspects of nuclear fuel, fuel fabrication, and the international

fuel fabrication market. The report is intended to serve a variety of purposes:

• For those with little knowledge of nuclear fuel fabrication and its markets, the

FMO serves as a primer, providing a solid background in various aspects of the

industry and an understanding of how its markets function.

• For those knowledgeable in the fundamentals of fabrication, the FMO offers anal-

yses of a variety of its aspects based on several decades of participation in the

fabrication industry.

• And, for those who are actively involved in the industry as buyers or sellers of

nuclear fuel assemblies, the FMO supplies additional up-to-date insights to assist

in the improvement of existing nuclear fuel programs and in the development of

new fabrication-related initiatives.

What’s New in the 2020 Report?

In the 2020 FMO, we have updated all sections of the report and continued with the

organization and format of the report from previous years. This includes our FMO

Reference Document, which incorporates fabrication market discussion that are con-

sidered reference materials and do not change from year to year very much.

The FMO presents market data and analysis consistent with the style of UxC’s other

Market Outlook reports, and all the discussions and analyses have been updated to

reflect the events of the past year. As part of the lead-up to this report, we have again

conducted a survey of international utility attitudes toward the fabrication market.

This year’s essay, titled “HALEU Implications for the Fabrication Industry,” exam-

ines the increasing interest in high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel, espe-

cially by utilities looking to enhance fuel performance and fuel cycle economics

through higher burnups. The essay examines both the drivers and challenges to im-

plementing HALEU fuel, and how fabrication vendors are tackling the issues that this

type of fuel presents.

Introduction and Overview Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

12 © 2020 UxC

Once again, we have classified the world’s fabricators into three categories: the

Mega-Vendors, large international suppliers to multiple markets; Emerging Interna-

tional Suppliers, those companies who are poised to expand beyond their current re-

gional markets to directly challenge the Mega-Vendors in their principal markets; and

the smaller regional and national suppliers. Analysis of each vendor’s current situa-

tion and potential future developments in terms of market access and technical devel-

opments are presented in detail.

This year’s fuel fabrication demand projection is drawn from our proprietary UxC

Requirements Model (URM), which, starting with UxC’s own internal forecasts for

nuclear power capacities, calculates demand on a reactor-by-reactor, cycle-by-cycle

basis. We continue to refine and improve our reactor forecasts and the URM and be-

lieve the current version of the Model produces more accurate forecasts than in prior

years. UxC’s nuclear growth forecasts are updated quarterly, and the fabrication de-

mand projections used in this report reflect our very latest analyses in this regard. In

this 2020 edition, we again present extended supply and demand as well as price fore-

casts through 2035.

The focus of the report are analyses of the current and future markets for fuel for

LWRs, i.e., BWRs and PWRs; however, we also include an updated and expanded

discussion of the fabrication markets for non-LWR fuel (e.g., PHWRs, AGRs, and

LGRs). Special efforts have been made to enhance our analysis of the PHWR fuel

fabrication market, which represents about 11% of the world’s reactors today. In ad-

dition, we have once again included a brief review of the potential fuel fabrication

market for small modular reactors (SMRs) and other advanced reactors, although the

future of SMRs and other advanced reactor designs remains in flux at this time.

Finally, as part of our continuing efforts to improve and enhance the analysis of the

fuel fabrication markets, UxC made efforts to engage with global fuel fabricators, as

well as their customers, to obtain the most accurate and up-to-date information possi-

ble. For this year’s Utility Fabrication Market Survey, we received many excellent

responses from utilities around the world.

• FMO Reference Document

The FMO report is split into two documents. The first is this main FMO report,

which includes all the chapters described in the following Structure of Report sec-

tion. Second, in order to make the FMO more user-friendly, and to reduce the total

volume of the main report, we have extracted sections of previous FMOs that have

remained relatively constant over the years and put them into a separate FMO Refer-

ence Document. This reference document is available to all FMO subscribers and can

be accessed as a PDF file downloadable from the UxC Client Site (note that sub-

scriber login credentials are required).1 The FMO Reference Document includes the

following sections:

1 Access to the FMO subscriber website is at: https://www.uxc.com/c/MktRptEssays.aspx?rpt=fmo

Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020 Introduction and Overview

© 2020 UxC 13

• Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Market Primer

• History of the Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Industry

• Utility Procurement Approaches and Contracting Issues

• Typical Fuel Fabrication Service Contracts

• Fuel Assembly Design and Manufacture

• Nuclear Fuel Performance

Structure of Report

This year’s edition of the FMO continues our efforts to create a user-friendly text

with each chapter containing clear and distinct information. The reader is encouraged

to begin at Chapter 1, as there is intended to be a continuous and logical flow to the

report; however, each individual chapter provides unique topical coverage that can

also be considered independently from the rest of the report’s contents. The report is

structured as follows:

This year’s in-depth topical essay in Chapter 1 – Essay: HALEU Implications for

the Fabrication Industry delves into the rapidly evolving situation regarding ad-

vances in high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel development and how this

is likely to affect the nuclear fuel fabrication industry in the coming years.

Chapter 2 – Reactor Developments and Demand Outlook begins our review of the

fabrication market fundamentals with a look at current and future demand. This

chapter presents UxC forecasts for nuclear power growth through 2035 from our Nu-

clear Power Outlook (NPO) and the resulting fabrication demand projection through

2035 using our UxC Requirements Model (URM).

Chapter 3 – Results from UxC Utility Fabrication Market Survey presents the

results of our latest utility market survey and analyzes the latest trends in utility views

on the fabrication market.

The supply side of the equation is addressed in Chapter 4 – The World’s Nuclear

Fuel Fabricators. This chapter includes in-depth profiles of each of the world’s

LWR fuel suppliers, their production facilities, their products, the markets they serve,

and additional items of interest.

Chapter 5 – Supply and Demand Analysis combines all of the preceding discus-

sions with a comparison of supply and demand for LWR fuel through 2035 on a

global level as well as in each of the principal geographic market segments.

Since the market for fabricated LWR fuel is segmented both geographically and tech-

nically, each of these individual market segments is discussed and analyzed in Chap-

ter 6 – Global and Regional Market Analysis.

Introduction and Overview Fabrication Market Outlook - Aug 2020

14 © 2020 UxC

Chapter 7 – Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Prices discusses the factors affecting current

and future LWR fuel prices and presents UxC’s latest projections for both PWR and

BWR fuel fabrication prices in different regional markets through 2035.

Finally, in Chapter 8 – Non-LWR Fuel Fabrication Markets, we present a discus-

sion of the unique fuel fabrication markets for PHWRs, GCRs, and LGRs. SMRs and

advanced reactor fuel developments are also addressed at the end of this chapter.

The report also contains a series of appendices and a glossary, which provide back-

ground information and other useful items on the fabrication market. The following

are found at the end of this report:

Appendix A – UxC 2020 Fuel Fabrication Market Survey Sample

Appendix B – Fuel Fabricator Contact Information

Glossary