fact sheet- july 2015idbidirect.cmlinks.in/admin/pdf/1596126468_monthly report -july 20… · •...
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FACT SHEET- JULY 2015Monthly Overview
Dear Friends,
After the strong up move, the tide turned sideways. From the past 4 months, volatility hasincreased but month-on-month gain is not so significant as earlier. In the absence of domestictriggers, the market has taken cues from international triggers. The quarterly results declaredduring July depicted a muted performance. Progress of monsoon is near-to-normal, which is apositive trigger for an agriculture-dependant country like India. In the recent RBI policy, the RBIGovernor opted for status-quo wherein the repo rate remained fixed at 7.25%. The monsoonsession of Parliament is rendered ineffective by constant impediments created by theopposition. The lack of constructive reforms is expected to hamper growth and prevent anysignificant progress in reviving stalled projects.
From the international perspective, US has shown upbeat employment data and initial signs ofgrowth. Encouraging data bode well for US, which can pave the way to hike interest rates.From Asian continent, slowdown in China will put downward pressure on commodity prices,specifically iron ore and steel products, as it is one of the largest commodities consumers. Itraises concern for domestic commodity producers as they face stagnation in demand.
Can China’s slowdown boost India’s growth? China and India remain prominent emergingmarkets. They are competitors to seek foreign funds. If the Chinese story remains sluggish thenideally funds will get attracted to India. Any bad exogenous factor can have knee jerk reactionand any dip likely to create buying opportunity.
With warm regards,
D.C. Jain
From MD’S Desk…
IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | Retail Research www.idbipaisabuilder.in
Shri D.C. JainMD & CEOIDBI Capital Market Services Ltd.
• Nifty Monthly Chart 4
• Highlights 5– World Market
– Currency Market
– Debt Market
• Sector Indices & Triggers 6– CNX Auto
– Bank Nifty
– CNX Energy
– CNX Metal
• Important News During Month of June 2015 8
• Monthly Outlook for Nifty 9
• Pick Of The Month 10
• IDBI Classroom 11
• Services Offered by IDBI Capital 12
Table of Contents
Nifty Weekly Chart
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Nifty started the month on a flat note and traded with extreme volatility on either side throughout the month. The volatility in the marketwas seen mainly due to a weak set of June 2015 quarter earnings of most Nifty companies and high inflation numbers reported leading todiminishing hopes of a further rate cut by the RBI. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a small bearish candle with shadows on eitherside indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction and then formed a hammer pattern which is a positiveindication. The index is moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the daily as well as on weekly chart indicating sustaineduptrend. The indicator RSI is moving upwards and above its reference line indicating positive bias. During the month, the benchmark CNXNifty touched the low of 8328 and high of 8633 and ended the month on a positive note at 8533 levels.
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Highlights
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World Market: The US index , was up during July as the US unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2008 in the month of June 2015thus, raising hopes of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the near future. The European indices also grew during the month of July.This was on account of Greek debt relief and signs of domestic pick-up in the Euro zone economy. The Asian indices exhibited a mixedperformance during the month and majority of them ended on a weak note.
Currency Market: The rupee depreciated against the US dollar, tracking other Asian peers, owing to the Federal Reserve’s positive view onUS economy. Going forward, the strength in the Dollar is likely to keep the Rupee under pressure. During the month of July, the Rupeetouched a low of 63.24 & a high of 64.26 and closed the month at around 63.97 levels to the Dollar.
Debt Market: The g-sec market remained quite range-bound during July. The benchmark 10-year security 7.72% GOI 2025 closed themonth at Rs 99.40 implying a yield of 7.81%, which is quite higher than the previous month’s close of Rs.99.03 implying a yield of 7.86%.The Reserve Bank of India adopted a slightly dovish stance than its last policy meeting and indicated a continuation of accommodativemonetary policy. Significant fall in Crude Oil prices, government’s supply management to keep food prices stable and near normalmonsoon for rest of the season would continue to have a mitigating effect on inflation, which may support rate cuts in the near-term. Theexpected rate hike by the US Fed may put some pressure on yields.
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Sector Indices & Triggers
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CNX AUTO (8545): CNX auto index whichrepresents about 7.63% of Free float marketcapitalization of stock listed on NSE and 95.42% ofFree float market capitalization of stock forming apart of automobile Sector universe. During themonth of July, CNX Auto index has given resistancebreakout & ended the month with positive note. Ithas formed an inverted head & shoulder patternon the daily chart. Technically there is positive signas it has formed a hammer pattern. Stocks likeMaruti and HeroMotoCorp depicted some strengthwhile TataMtrs remained weak.
CNX Banknifty (18730): CNX Banknifty representsabout 15.55% of the free float marketcapitalization and 89.90% of free float marketcapitalization of stocks forming a part of banksector. Banking stocks remained volatile during themonth and ended in the red. CNX Bank Niftyremained range-bound in July. The PSU Banksperformed well on the proposal of capital infusionby government. While closing the month, BankNifty has created a hammer pattern on weeklychart. RBI’s policy decision of no rate cut wasalready discounted so the banking stocks did notreact much negatively to it.
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Sector Indices & Triggers
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CNX Energy (8712): CNX Energy represents about10.46% of the free float market capitalization and82.99% of free float market capitalization of stocksforming a part of energy sector. The CNX Energyindex ended in negative territory during July. Thiswas mainly due to expectations of lowerrealisations from crude sales for oil explorationcompanies on the back of lower crude oil prices.BPCL stock prices reacted negatively to news of astake sale.
CNX Metal (2129): CNX Metal index whichrepresents about 4.62% of Free float marketcapitalization of stock listed on NSE and 90.37% ofFree float market capitalization of stock forming apart of metal Sector universe. Metal and miningstocks remained weak. CNX Metal Index fell morethan 6% during July, due to fears of a further dip incommodity prices on the back of a slowdown inChina.
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• IndusInd Bank has received Competition Commission approval for the acquisition of Royal Bank of Scotland's gems and jewelleryfinancing business in the country.
• Reliance Industries announced an investment plan of over Rs 250,000 crore in the digital space, including rollout of wirelessbroadband infrastructure and manufacturing of mobile handsets.
• Lupin has acquired Russia's Biocom, marking its foray into a market that is expected to be one of the top eight pharmaceutical marketsin the world by 2018. The Mumbai-based company has acquired a 100% equity stake in ZAO Biocom of Russia, subject to certainclosing conditions.
• American clothing brand Aeropostale plans to enter the fast growing Indian market through a licensee agreement with Arvind LifestyleBrands that will open its first outlet in the country in March next year.
• India's third-largest tyre maker JK Tyre has emerged as the front runner to purchase Birla Tyres from Kesoram Industries, flagship ofthe BK Birla Group, for a little more than Rs. 2,000 crore.
• Apollo India Pvt. Equity II (Mauritius) Ltd has reduced its stake in direct-to-home services provider Dish TV by 4.4 per cent through saleof 4.69 crore shares worth Rs 497 crore.
• United Spirits sold its entire 3.2% stake in United Breweries (UBL) to Heineken International for Rs 872 crore. The shares were sold atRs 1,030 apiece. With this move, United Spirits has completely exited their stake in Vijay Mallya-led United Breweries and will nowcease to be a promoter of the same.
• JSW Energy announced the signing of a non-binding agreement with Monnet Ispat for initiating due diligence for acquisition ofmajority stake in Monnet Ispat and Energy’s 1,050-Mw power plant in Odisha.
• Power Grid Corporation of India announced that the company’s board of directors have agreed to invest Rs. 2,247.37 crore for theGreen Energy Corridors: Inter-State Transmission Scheme – Part C.
• Sun TV 's Red FM said it would move court against the government's decision denying it permission to participate in phase III of FMauctions. On July 15, five companies of Kalanithi Maran-promoted Sun TV were not allowed to participate in Phase III FM auctions asthe Information and Broadcasting Ministry had rejected their applications.
• Essar Steel launched an online platform for both buying and selling the alloy and other related products, which it claimed is thecountry's first such offering in the metals space called E-Hypermart.
• In one of the first tie ups in the naval defense space, Pipapav defence and Russian shipyard Ziv-dochka have announced a 51:49 jointventure (JV) on Tuesday. The JV target the kilo class submarine refit programme. There is an opportunity of more than Rs 30,000crorein revenue from the programme.
Important News during month of July 2015
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Monthly Outlook for Nifty
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CNX Nifty Monthly Chart (8533): Nifty is currently trading below its short-term and medium-term moving averages. In the past threemonths, it has been hovering around the 200DMA. The slopes of the short and medium term averages are flat. On the monthly chart it hasretraced from 23% level by creating hammer pattern which is positive indication for the market. Next potential support placed at8340/8160 while resistance can be seen at 8690/8740. Fundamentally also the improving growth prospects of the economy, improvingmargin outlook of corporate, likely lower interest rates, softening commodity prices and reasonable valuations lead to a positive outlookfor equity markets over the medium to long term.
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Pick Of The Month: Reliance Industries (CMP: 968)
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Investment Rationale: Reliance Industries Limited is an India-based private sector enterprise, with business in the energy and materialsvalue chain. The Company operates in three segments: petrochemicals, refining and oil & gas. The petrochemicals segment includesproduction and marketing operations of petrochemical products, The refining segment includes production and marketing operations ofthe petroleum products and the oil and gas segment includes exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas.
Stock had remained in sideways for long time. In initial years after global melt down stock traded in very congested trend. Recently pricehad come out from falling channel. After seeing price is trending in wave, it seems that stock should ideally move in trend and gain itsearlier glory. After breakout it had retraced to earlier pivot point on lower time frame. Buying technical broken out stock on retracementcan be considered as stock is digesting its earlier gain and generating further strength to move higher.
One should accumulate stock in the range to 970 to 940 range with pyramid approach with stop loss of 915 and on higher side target canbe set at 1080 level. Time frame will be 2 to 3 months.
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IDBI Classroom: Simple Moving Average (SMA)
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Moving averages smooth the price data to form a trend following indicator. They do not predict price direction, but rather define thecurrent direction with a lag. Moving averages lag because they are based on past prices. Despite this lag, moving averages help smoothprice action and filter out the noise. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as BollingerBands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) andthe Exponential Moving Average (EMA). These moving averages can be used to identify the direction of the trend or define potentialsupport and resistance levels.
The Simple Moving Average is arguably the most popular technical analysis tool used by traders. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is usedmainly to identify trend direction, but is commonly used to generate buy and sell signals. The SMA is an average, or in statistical speak - themean.
An example of a Simple Moving Average is presented below:The prices for the last 5 days were 25, 28, 26, 24, 25. The average would be (25+28+26+26+27)/5 = 26.4. Therefore, the SMA line below thelast days price of 27 would be 26.4. In this case, since prices are generally moving higher, the SMA line of 26.4 would be acting as support.
Moving Average Acting as Support - Buy SignalWhen price is in an uptrend and subsequently, the moving average is in an uptrend, and the moving average has been tested by price andprice has bounced off the moving average a few times (i.e. the moving average is serving as a support line), then buy on the next pullbacksback to the Simple Moving Average.
Moving Average Acting as Resistance Sell SignalAt times when price is in a downtrend and the moving average is in a downtrend as well, and price tests the SMA above and is rejected afew consecutive times (i.e. the moving average is serving as a resistance line), then buy on the next rally up to the Simple Moving Average.
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Portfolio Management Services
IDBI Capital is one of the leading fund managers in the country for Provident, Pension and Retirement Benefit Funds. The Company is a SEBIregistered portfolio manager in the country and manages client assets under both discretionary and non-discretionary mandates. We providethese services to various public and private sector undertakings and their provident, pension, retirement benefit and surplus funds. Our clientele,past & present, includes leading pension and provident funds in the country. The funds have continuously yielded superior returns, significantlyhigher than the benchmark 10year treasury yield.
Mutual Fund Advisory
IDBI Capital is providing advisory services to Corporate/ Banks and Institutions in managing their surplus funds, as an extension service to theirtreasury.
Mutual Fund Distribution
We are one of the leading Mutual Fund Distributors having mobilized over `73,500 crore in FY2014. The Mutual Fund distribution Services areprovided to the Banks/Institutions/Corporate/Trusts.
Investment Banking
We manage equity issues, apart from various Corporate Advisory Services. Investment banking activities include management of IPOs, RightsIssues, Buyback of Equity, and Open Offers as well as private placement of Equity, structuring transactions, fund mobilisation while adopting theappropriate route to resources. The Corporate advisory services advises and assists Corporate in strategic initiatives and projects, undertakesfinancial, project, M&As, and strategic advisory.
Debt Capital Market
The Company is a leading arranger for debt/ bond issues and undertakes the placement of bonds as well as equity. While in the past, theCompany was a key arranger for the prestigious `10,000 crore tax-free bond issue of India Infrastructure Company Limited (IIFCL), it continues tobe an active player in the segment with clients like IOC, REC, PGC, BPCL and has now ventured into association with other clients.
Distribution Capability
The Company is having a network of over 13 offices and managing the distribution business through a network of around 4500 agents across thecountry. The strength of the network is also enhanced through tie-ups with six scheduled commercial banks for distribution of financial productsthrough online mode.
Services offered by IDBI Capital
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Retail Marketing of Investment Products
We have an online investment portal namely, idbipaisabuilder.in – for wider reach of financial and investment Products – secondary and primarysuch as Equities, IPOs, Mutual Funds. Besides IDBI bank, IDBI Capital has also tied up with Punjab National Bank, Karur Vysya Bank Limited,Oriental Bank of Commerce, Union Bank of India, Vijaya Bank and Lakshmi Bank.
Research
The entire business activities are supported by extensive and in-depth research based on qualitative and quantitative factors. Our researchactivities:
• Equity: Companies/Sectors & Derivatives
• Debt: Indian Market & Global Market
• Mutual Fund
Investment Banking
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Services offered by IDBI Capital
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Our Team
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