Far West Region – What’s the Housing Demand?

Population Forecast At the 2016 Census, the Far West Region had a population of 44,717, down from

46,372 in 2011 (a decline of 3.6%). In 2016, the Aboriginal population of the Far West was 7,358 or 16.5% of the total

– compared to 2.9% for NSW as a whole. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) forecast that

Bourke and Central Darling LGAs and the Unincorporated Area will see a slight increase in population while population in the other Far West LGAs will stabilise or decline slightly.

Age The age profile of the region and particularly each LGA will impact on housing

need and demand, including number of bedrooms, affordability, location and dwelling type.

The median age of the Far West Region population at 2016 ranges from 34 in Brewarrina to 44 in Wentworth, (compared to 36 in Sydney and 43 in the Rest of NSW). Almost all of the LGAs in the Region have a younger median age than the average for the Rest of NSW.

Overall, the region has a slightly higher proportion of children (0-14 years) as well as those aged 25-44 and 45-64 and a slightly lower proportion of 15-24 year olds as well as those aged over 65 compared to the average for the Rest of NSW.

With the exception of Broken Hill, every LGA had a lower proportion of residents aged 75-84 and 85+ than both the average for the Region and the Rest of NSW.

DPIE project an ageing population with a 34% increase in the population aged over 65 and decline in the younger adult population in the Far West Region.

This suggests an increased need for housing that is accessible and appropriate to suit the needs of older cohorts.

In 2015, over 85% of older Australians lived in private dwellings, with 73% of them owning their own home. 6.6% were in residential accommodation and 6.6% lived in 'other non-private dwellings' such as caravan parks and self-care units in retirement villages. Older Australians strongly prefer to age in place.

Increasingly older residents require support to age in place and to ensure their homes are safe and appropriate for their needs.

Although the majority of older Australians own their own home, about 15% of older Australians are renters, and these people are generally a highly vulnerable and economically disadvantaged group, with older women being the fastest growing demographic of people experiencing homelessness.1.

The graph below depicts the age profile for each of the Far West LGAs and Unincorporated NSW, plus the Region as a whole and the Rest of NSW.

1 "Housing Decisions of Older Australians" Productivity Commission December 2015.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

A 2019 study “My Home My Place – Housing Needs of Older People Living in a Rural Community” by Horizon Housing found that (p21):

o “Older people prefer to stay in their own homes for as long as possible o Older people want comfortable and secure housing connected to

family, friends and their local community o Many homes are not age-friendly causing risk of trips and falls or

injury o Factors impeding ageing in place included social isolation, tenure

insecurity and cost of care Key challenges of housing in rural communities included (p21):

o Shortage of trained professionals or installers o Negative perception of accessibility modifications (lack of visual

appeal) o Lack of awareness o Cost of modifications o Limitations around modifications.”

The project was initiated by Horizon Housing and included community consultation with over 200 residents. The study makes recommendations on housing design, supply, information and advice, and collaboration as well as undertaking a demonstration project and compiling a number of case studies.

Household Type At the 2016 Census, single person households were the largest household type

in the Far West, comprising 28.7% of households (compared to 25.5% in the

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Rest of NSW), followed by couples (23.2%, compared to 27.0% in the Rest of NSW) – so smaller household types make up a larger proportion of households in the Far West than for the Rest of NSW.

Family households make up a smaller proportion of households in the Far West - couple family with children households comprised 19.8% of all households (compared to 25.4% on average in the Rest of NSW), one parent families made up 11.5% (compared to 11.0% in the Rest of NSW) and other families 1.1% (0.9% in the Rest of NSW).

Couple and lone person households together comprise 51.9% of all households while families comprise 32.4% (group households make up 2.5% and other household types a further 13.4% of all households).

Aboriginal households show a different household composition, with a larger proportion of family households. In 2016 Aboriginal households in the Far West were mainly one parent family (one family) households (29.2%), followed by couple family with children (one family) 24.6%. Couple households comprised 14.5%, single person households 21.0%, group households 4.1% and multiple family households 3.1%.

The graph below shows the proportion of household types at the 2016 Census for each of the Far West LGAs and Unincorporated NSW, as well as the total for the region and the Rest of NSW.

DPIE projections until 2036 forecast stable or declining numbers of each household type in most LGAs, with an increase in lone person households in Bourke and an increase in lone person, couple and single parent households in Central Darling.

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Household Size Average household size in the Far West Region at 2016 ranged between 2.2

person per household in Broken Hill and 2.6 persons per household in Brewarrina. At 2016 the Rest of NSW had an average household size of 2.4 (down from 2.7 in 2001). Generally household size has remained fairly stable within the region, with Balranald and Unincorporated NSW experiencing an increase and Bourke and Wentworth a decrease between 2011 and 2016.

The table below shows average household size for each of the Far West LGAs, Unincorporated NSW and the Rest of NSW from 2006 to 2016.

Area

Average Househol

d Size 2006

Average Househol

d Size 2011

Average Househol

d Size 2016

Balranald 2.5 2.4 2.5Bourke 2.7 2.6 2.5Brewarrina 2.9 2.6 2.6Broken Hill 2.3 2.2 2.2Central Darling 2.4 2.4 2.4Cobar 2.5 2.4 2.4Walgett 2.3 2.3 2.3Wentworth 2.6 2.5 2.4Unincorporated NSW 2.4 2.3 2.5Rest of NSW 2.5 2.4 2.4

DCJ Local Government Housing Kit Database- Source: ABS, Analysis FACS.

Income Low income households predominate in the Far West, comprising 52.9% of all

households, well above the average of 48.0% for the Rest of NSW. Cobar is the only LGA in the region which does not have a majority of low income households.

Moderate income households make up 18.5% in the Far West, compared with 21.4% in the Rest of NSW.

High income households in the region comprise 28.7%, below the average of 30.6% in the Rest of NSW.

There is some variation between Far West LGAs:o Walgett has the highest proportion of low income households with 63.6%,

closely followed by Brewarrina with 63.0%, while Cobar has the lowest proportion with 37.4%.

o Balranald has the highest proportion of moderate income households with 24.2% while Brewarrina has the lowest with 14.1%.

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o Cobar is the only LGA with a majority of high income households in the Far West Region (with 46.1%), although Bourke (37.2%) and Unincorporated NSW (37.4%), like Cobar, have a higher proportion of high income households than the average for the Rest of NSW.

The table below shows the proportion of low, moderate and high income earners for each Far West Region LGA and Unincorporated NSW, the average for the Region and the Rest of NSW.

The number of low income households declined in the Far West by 5.5% from 2011 to 2016, against the trend in the Rest of NSW and faster than the decline in population in the Region of 3.6%.

However, there was only a decline of 0.1% in the number of low income renters in the Region over the same time period, suggesting that the number of low income rental households is remaining stable despite population decline.

Industry Structure What occupations residents are employed in will impact what they can afford in

terms of housing tenure, dwelling type, number of bedrooms and location. The industry structure of the Far West Region is different to that of the Rest of

NSW as a whole, with higher proportions of the population in the region employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing and in mining; and to a lesser extent,

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accommodation and food services and public administration and safety; with lower proportions in every other category.

Across the region, the largest proportion of Far West Region residents are employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing (14.3%); health care and social assistance (13.2%); education and training (9.1%); retail trade (8.9%); mining (8.7%); accommodation and food services (8.3%) and public administration and safety (7.7%).

The following graph illustrates the industry profile for the Far West Region.

However there is variation between LGAs within the region. For example:o Every LGA except Broken Hill has a higher proportion employed in

agriculture, forestry and fishing than the Rest of NSW average of 5.7% and Central Darling has the highest proportion with 37.9%;

o Cobar has 32.0% employed in mining, with Broken Hill and Walgett the only other LGAs with a higher proportion than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4%;

o Broken Hill was the only LGA in the region with a higher proportion employed in retail trade than the Rest of NSW average of 10.3%;

o Unincorporated NSW had 17.5% employed in accommodation and food services, with Broken Hill the only other LGA with a higher proportion than the Rest of NSW (10.3%);

o Balranald and Wentworth had higher proportions employed in transport, postal and warehousing;

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o Wentworth and Unincorporated NSW had higher proportions employed in administrative and support services;

o Brewarrina had the highest proportion employed in public administration and safety (14.7%), followed by Bourke with (14.4%) and Central Darling with (12.1%) compared with 7.2% in the Rest of NSW;

o Brewarrina also has the highest proportion employed in education and training (17.7%) with Bourke, Central Darling and Walgett also having higher proportions than the Rest of NSW (9.0%);

o Broken Hill (18.3%) and Brewarrina (16.7%) were the only two LGAs to have a higher proportion employed in health care and social assistance than the Rest of NSW (14.4%).

These differences will impact on the housing needs in each LGA in the region and help shape the housing market. For example the drought will hit communities with a higher proportion employed in agriculture and is likely to impact what those residents and communities can afford in terms of housing type and tenure. To what extent the mining workforce impacts housing demand will depend in part on the phase of mining activity - for example in the construction phase there is a large construction workforce who may need to be accommodated for a relatively short time frame.

The graph below shows the industry structure for each LGA in the region, indicating both commonalities and variations between each LGA, the Far West region and the Rest of NSW.

The graph below provides an overview of the change in employment in the Far West Region from 2011 to 2016. It shows decline in employment in almost every sector with the exception of administrative and support services and rental, hiring and real estate services. The largest declines occurred in manufacturing (35.2% fewer employed in this sector in 2016 compared to 2011), in line with the trend

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elsewhere in NSW; 32.9% were lost in wholesale trade (also in line with the trend in the Rest of NSW; 20.2% fewer in electricity, gas, water and waste services (as in the Rest of NSW); 16.5% fewer in arts and recreation services and 16.2% fewer in professional, scientific and technical services.

Homelessness In NSW, the number of homeless people increased by 37% between 2011 and

2016. Note that the ABS definition of homelessness identifies a person as homeless where they do not have suitable accommodation alternatives and their current living arrangement:

o Is in a dwelling that is inadequate;o Has no tenure or their initial tenure is short and not extendable; oro Does not allow them to have control of and access to space for social

relations. A person is therefore considered homelessness when they are living in

improvised dwellings, tents, sleeping out, supported accommodation, boarding houses, temporary lodgings, overcrowded dwellings or caravan parks.

The number of people sleeping rough in NSW increased by 35% from 2011 to 2016.

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Severe overcrowding accounts for 45% of all homeless people in NSW. Severe overcrowding is where usual residents in the dwellings need four or more extra bedrooms to meet occupancy standards. The number of people in severely overcrowded dwellings in NSW increased by 74% from 2011 to 2016.

Adjusting for population growth, the rate of young people in the homeless population increased by 31% and there was a 24% increase in the rate for older people. The rate of homelessness is calculated per 10,000 population.

The table below shows the number of homeless people in the Far West Region according to the 2011 and 2016 Census.

AREA All homeless persons 2011

All homeless persons

2016

change % change

Balranald 0 3 3 Bourke 6 7 1 16.7Brewarrina 22 29 7 31.8Broken Hill 54 74 20 37.0Central Darling 19 23 4 21.1Cobar 12 8 -4 -33.3Walgett 94 126 32 34.0Wentworth 13 18 5 38.5Unincorporated NSW 3 13 10 333.3Total 223 301 78 35.0

Every LGA except Cobar had an increase in the number of homeless residents between 2011 and 2016, despite the decline in overall population. The largest numeric increase occurred in Walgett (126), followed by Broken Hill (74).

At the 2016 Census there were 65 Aboriginal residents of the Far West Region who were homeless, or 21.6% of the total homeless population in the region. As Aboriginal residents comprise only 16.5% of the total population, they are overrepresented in the homeless population in the Far West.

Census data show that compared with non-Indigenous Australian, Indigenous Australians were:

o 3 times as likely to live in overcrowded dwellingso 9 times as likely to access Specialist Homelessness Serviceso ½ as likely to own their own home (with or without a mortgage).

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reports that 21% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians were assessed as being in overcrowded conditions in 2014–15, of whom 41% were living in remote areas2.

AIHW note that while progress has been made in reducing the proportion of overcrowding in remote housing – down from 52.1% in 2008 to a projected 37.4% in 2018 according to a Remote Housing Review by the Australian Government – ongoing investment is necessary to ensure the gap continues to close, thereby reducing the high associated social and economic costs.

2 AIHW Indigenous housing snapshot 11 September 2019 (Part of Australia’s welfare)

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Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Department of Communities and Justice (DCJ) website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More detailed information and resources on an Ageing Population is available on the Local Government NSW website, in the Resource for an Ageing Population:

http://www.lgnsw.org.au/policy/ageing

More detailed information on population, household and dwelling projections is available on the Department of Planning Industry and Environment website at:

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx

More information on homelessness is available on the DCJ website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Help+with+Housing/Homelessness/

For more information/statistics on DCJ clients by DCJ districts:

http://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/facs-statistics

The Productivity Commission’s report Housing Decisions of Older Australians is at:

https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/housing-decisions-older-australians

AIHW report Australia’s welfare – Indigenous housing snapshot

https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/indigenous-housing

www.facs.nsw.gov.au