faculty of business studies tma cover sheet fbs-pt3 ... · faculty of business studies tma cover...

FBS-PT3 F O R M

Faculty of Business Studies TMA Cover Sheet

Lebanon Branch

□ Second First Semester 2010 - 2011 Academic Year

2 □ 1 TMA No. T306B Course No.

I. Student Information (to be completed by the student)

Elham Saad Student Name

418 Section No. 081716 Student No.

[email protected] E-Mail

I hereby certify that the work presented in this TMA is my own and is not copied from any source.

28 / 12/ 2010 Date of Submission Elham Saad Signature

Q3 Q2 Q1 Questions Total

20 10 70 Weight Allocated Marks

Marks ١٠٠

Total E-Library Word Count Referencing Presentation Criteria

Marks

Allocated Marks

Student's Total Mark ١٠٠

I. Tutor's Comments

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Tutor’s Name …………………………………………………………

…….. / ……. / 20 Date Returned …………………………………… Signature

T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418

ARAB OPEN UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS STUDIES

Lebanon Branch

T306. Managing Complexity: a systems approach

Energy Security in Lebanon

Final Project Presented by Student Name: Elham Saad

To Supervisor: Dr. Saher Al-Annan

Fall 2010


ENERGY SECURITY IN LEBANON


Table of contents

1. Overview………………………………………………... 5 2. Background…………………………………………….. 5 3. Definition of:

3.1 Tutor Report…………………………………... 6 3.2 Client Report…………………………………... 6 3.3 LOG Project…………………………………… 7

4. Tutor Report 4.1 Aim of project………………………………….. 7 4.2 The report……………………………………… 7

4.2.1 Ethicality Statement……………………....9 4.2.2 Log Frame………………………………...10 4.2.3 Stages of SSM…………………………….12 4.2.4 Conclusion……………………………….. 29

5. Client Report…………………………………………… 33 6. Log Project………………………………………………36 7. Overall Summary of Project……………………………39 8. References………………………………………………..41


1. Overview Energy is the life blood of human societies and the fuel of our economies which cooks

the food we eat, heats and lights our schools and hospitals, power our industries, and keep us

warm or cool in our homes. The access to clean energy form, and its everlasting availability

and affordability is critically important for our development and the eradication of poverty.

Thus, achieving energy security is a crucial and challenging objective that humanity must

seek. As a definition, Energy security is the ability of an economy to guarantee the availability

of the of energy resource supply in a sustainable and timely manner with the energy price

being at a level that will not adversely affect the economic performance of the economy

(APERC, 2007). This definition includes an idea about the physical availability of primary

energy resources in particular coal, oil, fuel and gas combined with the affordability of that

energy sources. In short term, an economy is vulnerable if it is dependent on a narrow range of

energy sources and is unable to switch away from the energy source whose price is increasing.

In long term, an economy remains vulnerable if it is unable to improve its flexibility to

substitute between energy sources or it is unable to increase its ability to generate and

implement new forms of energy. Thus, energy security is a messy issue facing the world as a

global community. It is a serious ongoing challenge. Strong growth in energy demand, rising

oil prices, and uncertain supply in key energy exporters has led to continued concerns about

energy security. Also there are a number of concerns and fears such as: oil and other fossil fuel

depletion. Most measures of energy security such as import dependence, and energy intensity

provide only a partial picture of the true risks facing an economy.

2. Background The united nation states that energy plays a crucial role in sustainable development. Its

availability influences all fields of social, economic and political activities; it affects the state

of the environment and the climate. Setting and implementing guidelines that regulate

emissions and promotes the use of renewable energy sources among others can significantly

contribute to sustainable development and the enhancement of livelihoods (UN, 2005). As a

result, several works have been done regarding this area. In 2002, The Lebanese Center for


Energy Conservation was created as a project financed by Global Environment Facility and

the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) under the management of the UNDP. Besides, on

February 2007, the Greek Embassy in Lebanon approved UNDP/LCEC proposal under ‘the

energy efficiency program towards energy efficiency reconstruction’. The project

“Renewable Energy and Energy Saving Application in the Affected Regions of Lebanon, via

the Installation of Solar collectors, lamps of low consumption, testing, and measurement

facility of solar collectors with simultaneous transfer of know-how” is a joint collaboration

between Greece and Lebanon on sustainable development issues specifically related to

renewable energy and energy efficiency. Behind this, on September 15, 2008 The World Bank

group participate in seminar on the electricity sector in Lebanon where they built a consensus

on a set of priorities and action plan to save the electricity sector. However, no implementation

has been done, nor improvement in the sector has been occurred. Moreover, Association

Libanaise pour Maîtrise de l’énergie et l’environment made numerous projects about the state

of energy in Lebanon and about energy security but also implementation did not occur.

3. Definition of:

3.1 Tutor Report Tutor report: it is a document that will include T306 course material’s concepts and

approaches. It will include the chosen issue that I experienced as a mess, and how I dealt with

it to improve it using methods, methodologies, techniques and tools from the course material.

For example, I will use SSM, and I will apply it within the BECM cycle using several

diagrams to structure the content of the mess, in addition to SUDA process. Also, it will

include the aims and interest of the complexity. Moreover, this report will include

stakeholders’ analysis, where I will analyze stakeholders who have different interests and

power in the issue. Furthermore, I will use at this part a log frame which is very useful

analytical tool to engage with the mess since it will clarify the goal, purpose, outcomes and

activities of the project.

3.2 Client Report Client report: it is a brief document that summarizes the situation and propositions. It

is a document aimed at my client that justifies and sells the options for change and


recommendations coming out of my study of the messy situation. At this part I will not use

T306 course material; however, it will contain the recommendations extracted from the tutor

report.

3.3 Log Project Log project: it is an overall summary of the project which consists of fourteen

weeks. Moreover, it is a work plan which I followed during my working on the project. Thus,

it will contain the weekly work to prepare this project using course materials concepts,

approaches, tools and techniques; in addition to external sources such as the internet and other

documents from different governmental and nongovernmental agencies. Finally, the overall

summary will include reflection in and on the overall work that I have done on this project,

and the course material that I have studied and used to accomplish this work.

4. Tutor Report 4.1 Aim of Project The aim of this project is to improve the energy sector in Lebanon and achieve

energy security within the contexts of sustainable development and conservation of natural

resources. I choose this messy situation for many reasons: first, through my research about the

status of energy sector in Lebanon, I have found that energy sector in Lebanon is quite drastic.

Also, as a consumer, I am suffering from this sector due to the lack of several sources of

energy, and due to their high prices. Moreover, I believe that energy production and

consumption in an inappropriate way have a serious negative impact on the social

development, economic growth and on environment. Therefore, I choose this mess since I

value the importance of energy to maintain life, development and growth without exploiting

environment.

4.2 The Report As a system practitioner, applying the appropriate method that fits my project led me to

think a lot in all sides of the mess that I want to deal with, but at the end I realized that I have

to choose the SSM approach. SSM almost fit this project because the situation of energy

security in Lebanon can be considered unstructured situation that has social, economical,


political and environmental dimensions. Moreover, since I am dealing with a messy situation

that includes numerous and different stakeholders with different perspectives, I prefer to use

this holistic approach to cover almost all aspects of the situation including soft issues. Thus, I

used SSM because of its flexibility, and the iteration between its stages and between the real

world and the concept model of the system thinking, in addition to its demonstrative tools,

such as the rich picture, will make it possible for me to describe the situation (Bell &

Chapman, 2005). Moreover, SSM is suitable here since the problem of energy in Lebanon is

unstructured, unbounded, unclear and uncertain, and SSM is an ideal method for such ill

structured situations. Further more, I choose to investigate and explore this messy situation

using SSM approach since soft thinking does not assume that the problems are out there. SSM

would enable me to identify potentially useful system of interest for thinking about such

situation, which can then used to develop agendas to enable implementation of stakeholders

developed proposals. Besides, to develop my approach, I have to follow the systemic learning

cycle stages. The first stage of the systemic learning cycle is being systemically aware of my

project. At stage two of this learning cycle, I am going to engage with the project through the

SSM. At stage three, I am going to contextualize my approach to the project through the use

of SSM. Finally, at stage four of the learning cycle, I am going to manage the complexity of

energy through the SSM.

On the other hand, I didn’t use the HSM because it is based on engineering perspectives

which does not have a universal application to all types of problems. Moreover, it emphasizes

on scientific approach problem solving rather than intuition or experience, and its core is

mathematical which limits the problem’s solutions (Bell & Chapman, 2005). Furthermore, it

concentrates on quantitative issues and technology rather than the needs of people involved in

the situation. Also, it is inflexible in use since it is a linear problem solving technique. Besides,

I didn’t use the VSM also since it is inappropriate to be used at this messy situation, it is

unable to improve it, and it assumes the availability of the five systems in the model to be

effective.

The systemic learning cycle:

1. Being


As a system practitioner, I have to be fully aware of my possibilities and constraints to

deal with this mess. I have to be aware that my perspectives are always partial and can

never be objective. I have to be aware of the possibilities and constraints that surround the

messy situation also. Moreover, I have to be ethical in dealing with this mess and act in a

way that does not limit the activities of others. I have to pay particular attention to the

main informal and unexpected actors within the context and think about how certain

personalities took decisions which affected the outcome of my study. Also I have to be

aware of involving the perspectives of all stakeholders that affect or are affected by the

situation. Being aware creates the initial starting condition for engaging with the

complexity.

4.2.1 Ethicality Statement Energy security and its progress towards sustainable development will only take place if

there is an increased and improved level of awareness among all stakeholders.

Government, national and international agencies have endorsed the force of this argument

in many occasions.

This statement is drawn out to start the ethical guiding principles and procedures which

will guide the ethical behavior of my research, survey and data collection executed for the

project. So, as a system practitioner, I will behave ethically and professionally in all the

activities involved in the project. I will be aware of the ethical implication of the activities

that I will be committed to, and I will confront the highest professional standards to

conduct this project. The rights and well being of all stakeholders will be the primary

considerations in this research study. Furthermore, I will accept and deal openly and

honestly with any experience, information, and perspective given to my project from

different stakeholders. In addition to this, I will accept and respect different opinions,

believes and thoughts, and I will be a good listener in listening to different perspectives

and opinions of all stakeholders. All stakeholders have the right to know what happens to

the information they provide through their involvement in this project. I will co-operate

with all stakeholders and different agencies in order to obtain the best possible outcome.

Also, I will provide fair and impartial recommendations for the client. Finally, I declare

that all the information content that is subject to copy rights are reserved, well identified

and acknowledged.


Therefore, this ethicality statement sets out the ethical aspirations and values that I aspire

to my work through this project. Thus, the statement emerges from reflection on the values

that are important with respect to me to tackle the objective of my project within multi-

membership of several stakeholders’ practice (Armson, 2005).

2. Engaging

In order to engage with this messy situation, I must construct and design the system of

interest of it which it is energy with all its sources and ways that can sustain and secure

energy. Also I have to engage in double learning: learning about the domain of energy and

about the approach that I am going to use and apply which it is the SSM. Therefore, at the

being stage of the systemic learning cycle, I have to experience the project situation and

immerse myself in it with all its ambiguity.

4.2.2 Log Frame Log frame is an analytical tool used to plan, monitor and evaluate projects. It derives its

name from the logical linkages set out by planners to connect a project means with its ends

(mind tools, 1996-2010). It has a power to communicate a project’s objectives clearly and

simply on a single page. Its power comes from the ability to incorporate full range of

views of all stakeholders of a project. It is a tool for summarizing the key features of a

project design at the time of project identification. Thus, it is a powerful tool to engage

with the messy situation that I am going to improve through my project.

Energy security project log frame

Goal Assumptions

The highest level objective which my

project is expected to contribute is to

achieve energy security in Lebanon.

- Create awareness by the public about the

concept through the help of different

stakeholders and agencies, such as

government, ministry of energy and water,

the Lebanese center for energy conservation

and other local community agencies.

- Co-operation of the above agencies to

invest in programs that aim to secure energy


Purpose Assumptions

The transformation which is expected to be

achieved as the result of my project is the

increase of efficient energy use in

conjunction with the decrease of energy

consumption from the conventional energy

sources.

- Promote the development of efficient and

rational use of different energy sources

- Promote the usage of renewable energy at

the consumer level

Output Assumptions

The result and impact that this project

should be able to guarantee is to improve

the energy sector in Lebanon.

-Implement energy policies that aim to

promote energy efficiency and

conservation.

-Implement programs that improve energy

sector in Lebanon.

Activities Assumptions

The activities which have to be undertaken

by the project in order to produce the output

are:

- Improve supply and demand

structure.

- Develop alternative energy sources.

- Increase the efficiency of energy

usage.

- Build energy saving strategies to

attain a degree of energy security.

- provide reliable data on energy

demand patterns and distribution

- appropriate use of renewable energy

sources

- help consumers make informed

choices on energy efficiency

- encourage energy saving behavior

- long-term strategies that save and

secure energy

This log frame is an important step of engaging in this messy situation. It allows me to

immerse myself in this messy situation deeper, and understand it better through all the

dimensions that surround it. Also, it allows me to confront full range of views of all

stakeholders involved in the project.


3 Contextualizing

To contextualize my approach and push it into context I have to appreciate my own

traditions of understanding and make connections with the history of particular system

method, which is here the soft system method. Through using the SSM I have to achieve

the outcomes that are agreed by those involved as worthwhile. Thus, I have also to identify

different stakeholders with their different perspectives and roles, and their different

interests to achieve more awareness and understanding to contextualize my project.

4.2.3 Stages of SSM Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured

The energy sector in Lebanon is neither reliable nor reasonably priced due to the lack of

investments and timely reforms. This sector is creating a heavy burden on public resources

and becoming an obstacle to social and economic development. Moreover, the electricity

sector became a symbol of challenges facing Lebanon in it’s derive to improve governance,

restore macroeconomic equilibrium and promote growth and employment generation. So, for

us, as consumers, energy problem is quite drastic. We are paying massive amounts of money

for energy service. This massive amount of money for energy services costs Lebanese

households an additional 25% or even more from their hard earned money which prevents

them to spend this money on food, education, health care services and on the children’s future.

An alternative way to state this messy situation from different perspective is that the energy

problem is not straightforward thought; energy problem have a direct correlation to economy

and industry. If there is not enough energy, businesses can not operate, people can not work,

which means no money is being made. Besides, a real problem also is that Lebanon has no

known fossil fuel resources, all energy needs are met with imports of petroleum products. So

energy sector is dependent on the outside, and it is vulnerable to potential energy crisis.

Stakeholders: stakeholders can be defined as all those people and institutions that have a

direct and indirect interest in the successful design, implementation and sustainability of the

project (Martin & Tate, 2001). This includes those positively and negatively affected by the

project. Stakeholders’ participation involves processes whereby all those with a stake in the

outcome of a project can actively participate in decisions on planning and managing this


messy situation. They share information and knowledge, they may contribute to the project, so

as to enhance the success of the project, and hence ultimate their own interests. Analyzing

who stakeholders are, what their interests are, and what power they have is a useful tool for

providing a whole range of information about who will be affected by this mess, and who

could influence it. Also, it will provide information about which individuals, groups or

agencies are involved in formulating and implementing policy related to energy security, and

what role they will play in the process. Stakeholders’ analysis can also identify whose capacity

needs to be built in order to participate effectively.

The stakeholders involved in energy security are as follows:

Government: it has coordination, planning and implementation role. It is responsible for

implementing policies in different fields of energy sectors. They have to adopt and implement

a wide spectrum of energy efficiency measurement. They have to adopt policies and measures

in promoting energy efficiency, and they have to enhance public awareness. They have an

interest in achieving energy security to protect Lebanon from potential energy crisis. Thus,

they have high interest and high power.

Ministry of Energy and Water: it is responsible for the overall electricity sector and all

related policies. It is in charge of managing the country’s hydropower potential, as well as all

matters related to alternative energy sources. It is responsible for implementing initiatives to

reduce energy use and promote the use of renewable energy sources. It also has co-ordination,

planning and implementation role. Thus, they have high interest and high power.

EDL: it has an important role in providing an important source of energy which it is

electricity. It has an interest in investing in new resources of energy and new technologies that

help to improve the electricity sector in Lebanon. Also, it has an interest in financial return of

this sector. It has high interest and high power.

The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC): it is a national energy agency that

has an interest in all matters related to energy security and renewable energy sources. It must

invest in more projects that help to increase energy efficiency, and it must adopt programs that

can made people aware of about other energy sources that can be helpful to secure energy.

Thus, it has a high interest and high power.

Private Sector: they have an interest in the availability and the affordability of different

energy sources to maintain their activities and achieve economic growth. They play an


important role in improving energy sector by investing in the production of energy efficient

goods, and should specifically encourage doing so. Thus, they have high interest and low

power.

Households: they are interested in the long run availability of different sources of energy at

reasonable price. They must play an important role in saving energy as much as possible.

Also, they must be aware of the concept of energy security. Thus, they have high interest and

low power.

Social agencies: they have an interest in the social impacts of energy security on individual’s

life. They play an important role in increasing social awareness among all individuals about

the importance of energy and about the ways that help to sustain energy for future generation.

They have high interest and high power.

Local Communities: they have an interest in the safety of their environment and well being

of individuals at their community. Moreover, they have an interest in energy security to secure

their community and protect it from any potential crisis. Also, they contribute in the

development and growth of their community. Thus, they have high interest and high power.

To develop an understanding of this messy situation and of the main stakeholders involved in

it, I drew system map which are essentially structure diagrams. A system map is essentially a

snapshot that shows components of the system and environment at point in time (Lane, 2004).

Besides, to indicate what elements in this situation has some influences over another; I

developed an influence diagram from the system map that I have drawn. This influence

diagram represents the same structural feature of the situation that I have mentioned them in

the system map, and it represents the important relationships that exist among them.


Stage 2: Problem Situation Expressed


In order to have the whole situation spread out in front of me, I drew the following rich

picture. This rich picture allowed me to capture all things that I am sensing about the

situation. It allowed me to encapsulate the real situation by making cartoon representation

about ‘energy sector in Lebanon and how to achieve energy security’ (Lane, 2004). Through

this rich picture I covered almost all ideas of this messy situation such as connections between

different aspects of energy security and the energy sector in Lebanon, relationships between

different factors that affect energy security such as lack of investment and timely reforms in

energy sector, influences exerted on this mess such as the increasing demand of energy, and

causes and effects that causes the imbalances between supply and demand. Thus, the whole

point of rich picture is to represent all what I can about the situation. It is about representing

all features of the situation. It is a creative thinking tool that can simplify the mess we are

dealing with.


To clarify the situation and express it we have to know that Lebanon lack all major traditional

sources of energy. Accordingly, 99% of its primary energy needs are imported. In the

electricity sector alone, the main electricity company EDL, imports around $500 million worth

of fuel each year to generate the electricity needed. In addition, and despite large government

investments in the power sector, demand still exceeds supply. Besides, regarding oil supply,

Lebanon is not an oil producing country but is located in proximity to oil producing countries.

The lack of local oil resources generates a heavy reliance on oil imports and results in a heavy

drain of foreign currency from an already indebted economy.

Thousand tons Oil imports (2002)

1230.1 Oil

1688.3 Diesel

132.8 Kerosene

1590.5 Fuel‐oil

110.9 Butane gas

Table1. Oil Imports to Lebanon

Actually, fuel oil is used by two major power plants in Jiyyeh and Zouk Mikael in addition to

some small generators that serve their factories and industrial facility. However, the fuel oil is

among the most polluting petroleum by products. Besides, diesel oil used in transport,

industry, heating and mainly in thousand back-up private generators complementary to the

electricity produced by EDL which continuously experiences failures and shortages. The

quality of diesel imported to Lebanon is very low. Additionally, there is no enforcement of

regular maintenance for the vehicles using diesel. This increases the emissions and pollutions

caused by those vehicles. The case is similar for generators providing the industry and the

households with electricity. Furthermore, regarding natural gas, the Lebanese market imports

liquefied petroleum gas mainly for domestic and commercial use, through a single licensed

private importer (Abi Said, 2005). Lebanon is in the process of converting its power

generating plants from oil to natural gas.


Figure 3.1 EDL Corporation Source: The Higher Council of Privatization

On the other hand, renewable energy plays a minor role in the energy mix in Lebanon. Its use

has been limited to hydropower whose share has been dropping with increased electricity

production and consumption depending on rainfall and thermal plants productivity. Other

forms of renewable energy are not being used on grid scale and few applications exist in

individual houses.

Therefore, there are two sources of energy: renewable and non-renewable sorts of energy.

Non-renewable sources of energy are energy sources that are extracted from the earth as

liquid, gases and solids that can not be replenished in short period of time. Fossil fuels are non

renewable sources of hydrocarbons; primarily coal, fuel oil, and natural gas that are exploited

to generate over 85% of global energy demand (Herzog & Golomb, 2004). The global

consumption of these conventional sources has made them prone to depletion. On the other

hand, burning of fossil fuel leads to the emissions of noxious gases which are harmful to

people and environment. The shift to renewable sources of energy will ensure the production

of energy in a sustainable manner. As a result, energy security has become a serious concern

with the growing energy and electricity demand.

To propose the structure of this argument, I drew a spray diagram since spray diagrams rely on

being logical connection between the elements and relatively the core idea and the details at


the periphery. I used this diagram since it tends to be useful at this face for it makes sense in a

relatively straightforward discovering and understanding of the structure of the situation.


Stage 3: Relevant system and root definition

Relevant system:

A well balanced energy system that comprise various power generation technologies with

suitable capacities to improve energy sector in Lebanon and achieve energy security; so that to

provide solid economic growth, maintain high level economic performance and save energy.

The root definition of this system must seek and achieve efficiency, effectiveness and efficacy

to be successful. Thus, it must exploit experts, resources and knowledge in the ideal way

(efficiency). Also, efforts and transactions in all phases of work to implement this system must

be planned and aimed at long run, and the resources must be used in the right way

(effectiveness). Finally to achieve system efficacy, evaluation of how the processes and

practices at this system are going under the real conditions must be done.

Root definition

It is a system that must be handled by all the stakeholders involved in this messy situation.

This system can be done only through the cooperation of all stakeholders. The government

and the ministry of energy and water must coordinate, plan, and implement sustainable energy

policies and strategies that consider energy conservation and energy efficiency so that to

improve energy sector. Besides, local communities and social agencies must invest in

programs that promote the development of rational and efficient use of energy. Also, they

must promote the use of renewable energy instead of non-renewable energy at consumer level.

Moreover, these agencies in cooperation with government must create awareness among

consumers about the importance of energy and how they can save energy in order to improve

supply and demand structure. Thus, they must encourage energy saving behavior. In addition

to this, consumers like households and private sector must use energy in an efficient way, and

they must try to save energy as much as possible. Thus, they must shift to use alternative

sources of energy like renewable energy sources.

CATWOE

C: Customers: energy consumers and buyers such as households and private companies, and

energy suppliers.

A: Actors: government, Ministry of Energy and Water, social agencies, local communities,

private sector, EDL, energy suppliers and buyers.


T: transformation process: improve energy sector in Lebanon by implementing different

strategies, policies and programs, and by using different sources of energy in a proper and

right way.

W: the world view here is that energy with its different sources is important to life, and it

affects social, political and economic development. So, we have to use it in the most efficient

and effective way to sustain and secure it.

O: Owners: government, Ministry of Energy and Water, EDL, local communities and social

agencies.

E: environmental constraints: there are social, political, technological, and economic

constraints facing energy sector in Lebanon. There is a lack of awareness among public about

this sector and how to achieve efficiency and save energy. Besides, there is a lack of financial

resources at government level to invest in alternative resources and to implement policies,

strategies and programs to improve energy sector and secure energy in the long run. Moreover,

there is a lack of renewable energy technologies.

Stage 4: Conceptual model

Conceptual model is an activity model; it is a model of the activities or processes which

logically must go on if a system is to be one described in the root definition. Thus, a well

balanced energy system that improve energy sector in Lebanon and create energy security can

be achieved by improving supply and demand structure and developing alternative energy

sources which are renewable energy sources such as tides and waves, solar thermal energy,

wind energy, hydropower, and biomass. Also, it can be achieved through increasing the

efficiency of energy use, building energy saving strategies to attain a degree of sustainability,

encourage energy saving behavior, and adopt renewable energy technologies.

Therefore, in an attempt to trace the logical consequences of picking the relevant system, the

following conceptual model was prepared representing an expansion of root definition.


4. Managing

After contextualizing my approach, I can reach to the final stage of the systemic learning cycle

which is managing the complexity and its content to realize what has to be done to improve

this messy situation.

Stage 5: Comparison of the conceptual model with the rich picture

At this stage, I am going to compare the conceptual system thinking world with the real world.

Activity in

conceptual model

Present in real

world situation?

Comments Is it feasible and

desirable to include

on agenda and carry

it forward?

Improve supply and

demand structure

Part of the activity is

already done in the

real world, but with

no coordination

On the supply side,

there are an ongoing

activities include the

retrofitting of

existing power plant,

investment in power

generation plants and

the enhancement of

the distribution

network and

equipment.

On the demand side,

the ministry of

energy and water has

initiated energy

saving projects to

reduce electricity

Yes, it is an

important activity

that can improve

energy sector in

Lebanon


expenses in public

building.

Develop alternative

energy sources which

are renewable energy

sources such as tides

and waves, solar

thermal energy, wind

energy, hydropower,

and biomass.

Several renewable

energy options exist

for Lebanon;

however, there is a

lack of vision and

political will by the

government to

develop these

renewable sources of

energy.

Renewable energy is

scarcely mentioned in

existing Lebanese

energy laws, and

there is no

established

administrative

structure in place to

develop energy

sector.

Yes, it is a crucial

and very substantial

step to achieve

energy security.

Increase the

efficiency of energy

usage

Few activities have

been initiated in the

real world to address

energy efficiency

challenge

Energy efficiency can

be promoted through

capacity building,

information and

awareness among all

stakeholders.

Yes, it is feasible and

desirable.

Build energy saving

strategies to attain a

degree of

sustainability

No, this activity is

not present in the real

world. There is a lack

of such strategies.

Government and

other stakeholders

must cooperate to

build such strategies.

Yes, it is important to

attain sustainability at

energy sector.

Encourage energy

saving behavior

Some activities at this

level are done.

Social agencies and

local community

agencies are playing

this role. However,

government must

coordinate with these

agencies to provide

incentives for those

individuals that are

Yes, it is an easy

activity, and can

contribute to the

overall objective of

energy security


saving energy.

Adopt renewable

energy technologies

This activity is not

present in the real

world.

The main barrier to

the adoption of

renewable energy

technologies is the

lack of investment,

the lack of financial

resources, and the

lack of expertise

No, since it faces

many barriers. Major

obstacle is that there

is a lack of financial

resources to buy

these technologies.

Stage 6: Debating with Stakeholders Involved in the Situation

The purpose of this stage is to conduct a structured discussion with the actors about the ideas

that are starting to emerge from the analysis. First, I put to the stakeholders some ideas about

the possible changes in the problem situation and I tried to identify those ideas which are

agreed to be both systemically desirable and feasible. I constructed a dialogue with all

stakeholders to make an agreement about the solutions that are feasible and desirable, and that

can be implemented to improve this messy situation. This dialogue included all stakeholders

and it was open so that all stakeholders had had a chance to voice their opinion. Moreover, I

provided all stakeholders with the information needed to make decision and implement

outcomes. I focused on increasing understanding and relations among stakeholders through the

use of effective communication that enables all participants to move forward with

implementation plans. Therefore, as a result of this dialogue among stakeholders, we reached

to the following agreed changes to be implemented:

• Improve supply and demand structure through working on both sides equally.

• Develop renewable energy sources as an alternative to the conventional sources of

energy

• Increase energy efficiency by promoting capacity building, information and

awareness among all stakeholders.


• Build energy saving strategies to attain a degree of sustainability through the

cooperation of different stakeholders

• Encourage energy saving behavior by providing incentives for individuals who save

energy.

• Encourage education in the field of renewable energy on all levels.

• Establish a credit system for renewable energy which provides low interest loans for

those interested in renewable energy installations.

Actually, these agreed changes are very important and essential in improving energy

sector in Lebanon and achieving energy security. However, these changes need a lot of

money to invest in their implementation; also, they may take a long period of time to be

implemented.

Stage 7: Implementation

At this stage we are going to implement the agreed changes that I mentioned in the

previous stage. Although the implementation takes a long period of time and needs a lot

of money, the implementation of the agreed changes will improve the messy situation

that we are facing. When we accomplish these changes, we will achieve efficiency,

effectiveness and efficacy at energy sector, and we will achieve energy security and

sustainability.

4.2.4 Conclusion In conclusion, I would like to reiterate the main point of this messy situation. Lebanon

is on brink of major catastrophic status of its energy sector. Lebanon energy sector has

proven to be a total failure and no real measures have ever been taken. Lebanon needs to

build a comprehensive energy efficiency and renewable energy policy. Also, capacity

building and awareness is needed. Thus, achieving energy security is crucial and

challenging objective that different stakeholders must seek. Therefore, major changes in

energy sector should take place, and the whole energy system should be rethought, re-

planned, and re-implement with energy security in mind. This process is not easy or

short, but let us remembers that the journey of 1000 miles starts with a step. Besides, I

reached to these results by using approaches and methods from T306 course material


which made the mess more clear and understandable. I analyse this mess fully using a

structured approach which it is SSM in the context of BECM systemic learning cycle.

Being and engaging stages of the systemic learning cycle were dominated by inquiry

analysis concepts and ideas. At these stages I observed how system thinking could help in

changing my perceptions about such a messy situation, and consequently understanding it

better from different angles and in broader context. Besides, at contextualizing and

managing stages of the systemic learning cycle, I moved from system thinking to system

practices by deciding and implementing actions; thus I moved from theory to practice.

Finally, through working in this messy situation I learned o develop energy strategy that

is about the process of making changes and about the changes themselves.

To represent the factors affecting this project I am going to draw multiple cause diagram.

This type of diagram helps me to understand the causes and the effects of this messy

situation. Moreover to gain further understanding of the connectivity in a situation, I

converted the multiple cause diagram into a sign graph by indicating if the cause has

negative effect or positive effect by adding respective signs.


5. Client Report


To: Government

Ministry of Energy and Water

Beirut, Lebanon

December 2010

I am glad to share with you the outcomes of the analysis that I carried out on “Energy

Security in Lebanon”.

Before moving straightforward to the analysis results and recommendations, I would

like to confirm that other projects and attempts carried and being carried out by various

parties are indeed of huge benefits. However, many gaps remain exist, and those were the

focus of my analysis.

The state of energy sector in Lebanon is deplorably bad and wretched. Power cuts are a

daily hassle for everyone in Lebanon. Despite a new and much needed energy plans and

the finalization of electricity, gas and oil laws, Lebanon still does not have a satisfactory

framework to solve this staggering problem. Moreover, the challenges to sector reforms

are extensive. Lebanon still lacks a truly comprehensive vision for its energy sector.

Renewable energy and energy efficiency laws looking toward the future and outlining the

appropriate support schemes are also lacking. Even the few legislative measures adopted

over the past decade aiming to reform the electricity sector are encountering serious

delays in implementation. The industry is still awaiting the announced creation of an

electricity regulator and market restructuring to separate electricity production,

transportation, and distribution. The planned reforms of Electricitie du liban (EDL) has

been postponed indefinitely.

Besides, private sector confidence in Lebanon’s energy sector is weak. The lack of

legislative and regulatory certainty remains an impediment to major investment projects.

Access to energy or the lack of thereof, has become a major obstacle to doing business

for 61 percent of Lebanese companies, according to the latest World Bank’s study. More

importantly, Lebanon has not been targeted by the initiatives aiming to develop

renewable energy capacities in particular solar and wind across the Mediterranean region.

This could have strategic implications for the country’s participation in regional energy

integration over the long term.


The need for additional investment in Lebanon’s failing energy sector is significant. To

effectively attract such necessary volumes of investment, the government needs to make

restoring investor confidence an immediate priority. It needs first to define a

comprehensive energy strategy for Lebanon supplied by a national consensus; second, to

design a clear set of rules and regulations governing energy sector, and third, to set laws

for the development of renewable energy potential and energy efficiency measures. The

government failure to proceed with energy sector reform will result in more money being

poured into the unregulated sector. It will also divert foreign investment away from

Lebanon toward other countries in the region that are more forward looking in their

energy and economic planning.

After discussing the main causes and effects of this messy situation, I suggest for you the

following solutions to overcome the stated failures, improve energy sector in Lebanon,

and achieve energy security. Straightforward, the solutions and recommendations that

you should accomplish are as follows:

• Develop a national energy strategy, which includes ambitious renewable energy

targets. The energy strategy should take into consideration long term energy

security.

• Develop a sustainable transport strategy which encourages non-motorized modes

and public transport as well as alternative renewable fuels.

• Establish “the energy organizational committee” as identified in law 462.

• Increase and facilitate cooperation and communication between the different

public authorities and industries related to energy.

• Establish and regularly update a national energy database including information

on renewable energy and energy efficiency potential.

• Increase national, regional, and international networking and information

exchange on energy issues to enhance local expertise and knowledge.

• Establish a credit system for renewable energy which provides low interest loans

for those interested in renewable energy installations.

• Encourage energy efficiency technologies as a first step in reducing electricity bill

altogether.


• Remove taxes and customs charges on all renewable energy items such as solar

thermal collectors, PV panels, wind turbines etc….

• Provide financial incentives for renewable energy users on houses in the form of

added construction space permits, this approved to be very effective.

• Remove government subsidies on electricity and fuel in all its forms which would

encourage the population to adopt energy saving strategies.

There are many changes needed to be done in order to improve energy sector in

Lebanon and achieve energy security. This is not an easy process, however, the whole

energy sector must be restructured in order to achieve sustainable energy.

Best regards, Elham Saad.

6. LOG Project


Project Name: Energy Security in Lebanon

Starting Date: 27 September

Target End Date: 30 December

Week Date Task Action List

Week 1

27 September-3 October

Before starting our lectures for this semester, I reviewed

the project log frame that I already made in TMA02 of

T306 (A) to refresh my memory about the ideas that I

initiated to prepare myself for the potential T306 final

project that I am going to make.

Week 2

4 October-10 October

At week 2, my tutor assures that last TMA for T306 will

involve working on a project but the assignment was not

uploaded yet on the LMS. However, he recommended

that we have to read our project guide. At this stage I read

the project guide, and I started in developing my ideas

about how I can organize my project.

Week 3


At this week a new concept was introduced to us that it is

sustainable development and how we can engage with it.

At this stage, I started to think about the project as a

topic, and I thought of what details I might include. Thus,

I found that sustainable development is very useful

concept and it may help me to improve the mess that I

choose in TMA 02. Thus, I decided to engage with this

mess in the context of sustainable development. However

all of this was just an intrinsic brainstorming.

Week 4

18 October- 24 October

At week 4, we studied about beliefs, values and

circumstances, and while I was studying them I found

them very useful to discover the aim of choosing this

mess and not other mess. Thus, I started to develop my


ideas and I tried to discover my hidden values and beliefs

about this mess that I am going to tackle. At this week I

started writing the first draft.

Week 5


I started to collect more information from different

resources in order to understand this mess better, and see

different perspectives and views about this messy

situation.

Week 6

1 November-7 November

TMA03 was uploaded on LMS, and I started to work on

it. Its final part which weight 20 % of the grade was about

drafting an outline for the project. At this part, I started to

organize my ideas as what details I might include, which

method I want to adopt during my analysis, what tools

and information are available to me, and how I can

manage this information and project. Then, I developed

an outline proposal for the project.

Week 7

8 November-14

November

At this week, I accomplished my TMA03 and I submitted

it. I found that outlining the proposal for the project was

very beneficiary step, since preparing the outline proposal

is a prerequisite step to preparing the project. This has

relieved me from being confused about the topic, and has

put my foot on the first step toward working actively on

my project.

Week 8

15 November- 21

November

At this week, I started to discuss the problematic situation

with the stakeholders that have an interest in this mess in

order to know their views, perspectives and opinions. At

this stage, I started to explore my experience and others’

experiences, and I started to investigate how similar

complex issues were handled by others. Moreover, I

planned to visit different agencies to collect more

information, and of course I continued my research using

the internet and the e-library which are huge virtual


libraries.

Week 9

22 November-28

November

At this week, we studied about the reflective systems

practitioners, and this made me become aware of how to

reflect on my practice while I am doing my project. Also,

I learned about reflection before action which was very

helpful for me to do in my T306 final project.

Week 10

29 November- 5

December

TMA 04 “final project” was uploaded on the LMS. In this

week, the tutor explained what is needed and he guided us

about what to do and what we have to avoid. Also, at this

week, I read the instructions given very well and I started

to organize my ideas, approaches and the draft that I

started in it in the way required in the instructions.

Moreover, I spent a lot of time preparing a project

planning document and outlining how the project will be

organized and planned. I also started gathering the virgin

data from the internet and from T306 course material, and

I started to read them thoroughly.

Week 11

6 December- 12

December

At this week, I started filtering the data collected from the

internet. I highlighted relevant and important information

that can support my analysis, and I prepared a summary

of all important information. I prepared a draft, with

heading and sub-heading, as well as references from all

relevant information. Then, I reviewed the drafts that I

prepared and I waited for my tutor’s feedback on the

outline proposal of the project.

Week 12

13 December- 19

December

I received the feedback from my tutor on the outline

proposal, and it was positive. This gave me a big push to

further explore the topic of the project. I formulated the

context of the system of interest and I prepared related

diagrams. I also started to identify different stakeholders

and their key roles and interest in the mess. I prepared a


brief summary of the situation being investigated. I

started building an idea on the approach that I intended to

adopt for the project, and I compared the three methods in

order to clarify why I am going to use the SSM and not

the other two methods.

Week 13

20 December- 26

December

I spent all this week finalizing my project. I implement

the SSM, I completed the tutor report and the client report

and I am working to finish this log project. Also, I

scanned all the diagrams that were hand drawn. At the

end of this week, I finished the project.

Week 14

27 December- 2 January

I read the project carefully before submitting it, and I

changed some sentences that I found ill-structured. After

that, I re-read it another time, and then I submitted it and I

ma satisfied and proud of it since I put a lot of effort to

accomplish it.

7. Overall Summary of Project The challenge of energy security is without question one of the most significant

struggles faced by the energy sector in Lebanon. Through working on this mess, and

analyzing it, I learned new insight about working systemically which it is to learn and

reflect by reading information and actively engage with it. This improved my ability

to reflect and think about how I think. Thus, during the preparation of my project, as a

system practitioner, I was going through what I called reflective practice. Reflective

practice is a group of activities that allowed me to move towards achieving the goals

of becoming more aware and of improving my practice (Armson, 2005). Reflective

practice was adopted when I was working with awareness of questioning the issues in

projects that I am preparing, and questioning my practice itself. Through the whole

process of preparing the project, I was learning many new concepts, and I was doing

self-evaluation, checking and enhancing my self knowledge. These elements of

critical reflection are also those which gave me access to epistemological awareness.


To clarify more, before I started working on this mess, I started planning for it by

collecting information about it, thinking about how to organize my work and the

method that I am going to use, designing my work process and setting a time scale

schedule to be able to meet the deadline without delay. I was doing intrinsic

brainstorming. By doing this, I was going through the phase of reflection before

action. This phase helped me to reduce errors and organize my work more and focus

on my goals. Afterwards, I started doing the actual work on the project, and I started

analyzing the mess using SSM. As I was working on my project, I was reflecting in

my practice by asking several questions all the time about what I am doing. This

reflection in action helps me as I complete a task. It is the process that allowed me to

reshape what I am working on, while I am working on it. It is that on going

experimentation that helped me find viable solutions (Schon, 1987). After I

accomplished my work, I reviewed all the work done and reflected on it, evaluated it,

and decided whether my work and practice have helped me to improve the situation

or not. Doing all this was basically reflecting on my own actions. Actually, after

working on this project I feel that I am more connected to the issue of energy security

in Lebanon and I feel even more responsible. I feel like I own this problematic

situation. Moreover, through working on this project my ability to manage messy

situations has increased. I feel more confident in handling problems through the

experience that I gained as a system practitioner. After all, I would like to note that it

was really different to get involved systemically in the situation than to have an outer

and general look at it. Finally, after accomplishing all these results from my project, I

wish that the stakeholders involved in this mess can implement the changes that I

recommended in order to improve the energy sector in Lebanon and achieve energy

security.

8. References


• Abi Said, C. (2005), Electric Energy and Energy Policy in

Lebanon, Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development

(GNESD), Beirut.

• Armson, R. (2005), T306 Managing Complexity: A Systems

Approach, block 5, The Systemic Practitioner: Being Reflective,

Becoming Aware, The Open University.

• Bell, S., Chapman, J. (2005), T306 Managing Complexity: A

System Approach, block 2, Managing and Learning with

Information Systems, The Open University.

• Herzog, H. and Golomb, D. (2004), Carbon Capture and Storage

from Fossil Fuel use, Encyclopedia of Energy, (ed.) In Elsevier

Science, by Cleveland, C.J., vol.1, article number: 00422, pp. 1-

11.

• Lane, A. (2004), T552, System Thinking and Practice:

Diagramming, The Open University.

• Martin, P. and Tate, K. (2001), Getting Started in Project

Management, John Wiley & Sons, New York.

• Schon, D.A. (1987), Teaching Artistry through Reflection-in-

action, In Educating the Reflective Practitioner, CA: Jossey-Bass

publishers, San Francisco.

• UN. (2005), Promotion of New and Renewable Sources of Energy

including the Culmination of the World Solar Program 1996-2005,

UN, General Assembly, New York.

• Asia Pacific Energy Resource Centre: APERC (2007),

http://www.aperc.org/ (Accessed 5 November 2010).

http://www.aperc.org/


• Electricite Du Liban (2004), http://edl.gov.lb/ (Accessed 5

November 2010).

• Mind Tools (1996-2010), http://www.mindtools.com/ (Accessed

13 December 2010).

• United Nation Development Programme: UNDP (2010),

http://undp.org.lb/ (Accessed 5 November 2010).

• The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation: LCEC (2002),

http://lcecp.org.lb/ (Accessed 12 December 2010).

• The Ministry of Finance (2001-2004), http://www.finance.gov.lb/

(Accessed 5 November 2010).

• The Ministry of Energy and Water: MEW (2004),

http://www.energyandwater.gov.lb/ (Accessed 12 December

2010).

http://edl.gov.lb/

http://www.mindtools.com/

http://undp.org.lb/

http://lcecp.org.lb/

http://www.finance.gov.lb/

http://www.energyandwater.gov.lb/

faculty of business studies tma cover sheet fbs-pt3 ... · faculty of business studies tma cover...

Documents