fairfax housing report 2008

Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM)

December 2008 Data

Housing Market AnalysisFairfax County

FULTON RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, INC.

11350 Random Hills RoadSuite 330Fairfax, VA 22030 540.338.2212 Direct1.703.673.9950 Fax [email protected]

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis

Black font represents a positive indicator, red is negative

Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07

Fairfax 1,170 34% 33% 4.7 ‐16% ‐41% $320,000 0% ‐26% 95 0% ‐10%Alexandria 207 25% 28% 5.0 ‐17% $302,000 ‐8% ‐28% 108 10% 0%Annandale 51 ‐9% 11% 5.5 40% $290,700 ‐1% ‐33% 99 5% ‐23%Burke 56 51% 60% 3.3 ‐35% $290,000 ‐9% ‐26% 69 ‐31% ‐37%Centreville 98 34% 51% 3.8 ‐42% $275,000 0% ‐18% 79 ‐8% ‐19%Chantilly 22 38% 69% 4.3 7% $264,000 ‐4% ‐16% 65 ‐32% ‐32%Fairfax 113 18% ‐2% 6.0 4% $380,000 ‐3% ‐18% 97 29% 0%Falls Church 122 47% 54% 4.0 ‐24% $312,500 ‐2% ‐30% 101 15% 20%Great Falls 13 63% ‐48% 12.3 ‐42% $1,070,000 ‐3% ‐18% 147 ‐31% ‐22%Herndon 118 28% 76% 3.3 ‐9% $242,000 1% ‐41% 86 ‐22% ‐17%Lorton 56 65% 155% 4.1 ‐34% $333,000 ‐10% ‐2% 89 ‐17% ‐15%McLean 50 61% 4% 7.0 38% $590,000 ‐26% ‐19% 102 ‐23% ‐4%Oakton 15 150% 36% 5.8 ‐47% $700,000 119% 8% 135 75% 80%Reston 80 29% 11% 3.7 ‐49% $274,000 ‐4% ‐25% 79 ‐6% ‐28%Springfield 113 38% 69% 4.4 7% $305,000 2% ‐25% 96 12% ‐18%Vienna 56 93% 2% 5.3 9% $563,920 ‐16% ‐2% 109 10% 15%Source: MRIS

Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue typeTotal Sales UP December's sales were 107% higher than January Detached Sales UP Increased 47.1% in December after five consecutive months of declinesAttached Sales UP Up 69% year over year but dowm 13.2% from high in JuneCondo Sales UP Increased six of twelve months in 2008Median Sales Price Down Down 26% and not this low since sometime in 2003Avg Close Price: Detached Down Down 25% year over year and ‐$77,000 since the 2008 high in MarchAvg Close Price: Attached Down Down 27% and ‐$105,277 on a year over year basisAvg Close Price: Condos Down Declined 19% just since January (‐$52,617)Close Price to List Price % Flat 2008 average equals 92%; ratio exceeded 90% all yearSupply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN The MSI has not been this low (4.7 months) since March of 2007Days on Market (DOMP) DOWN No change from November but fell below 100 days in seven months of 2008Short Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up December's sales were 213% higher than the low point in JanuaryShort Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Represented 19.4% of the total county‐wide listings in December

City

Executive Summary

Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMP

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Notes concerning the data in this analysis

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added.

As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the "active", "contingency/kick out", "contingency/no kickout", and "app reg" statuses. Listings excludes the "contract", "expired" and "withdrawn" statuses.

House types excluded from this analysis include "bed & breakfast", "mobile", "other", "garage/park space", "house of worship", "dwelling w/rental", "double wide", "vacation home", or "vacation rental".

Some cities are combined to conserve space: Fairfax Station and Clifton are included in Fairfax statistics; Oak Hill is part of Herndon; Kingstowne is part of Alexandria; Baileys Crossroads, Arlington, and Merrifield addresses are part of Annandale; Mason Neck and Fort Belvoir are included in Lorton; and Dunn Loring is included in Vienna statistics.

Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008.

As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to "original list price".

Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008.

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Year

Units % Change $ % Change2000 19,894 $209,0002001 21,181 6.5% $238,000 13.9%2002 22,303 5.3% $275,000 15.5%2003 24,221 8.6% $315,000 14.5%2004 25,717 6.2% $385,000 22.2%2005 23,114 ‐10.1% $479,195 24.5%2006 16,314 ‐29.4% $470,000 ‐1.9%2007 13,557 ‐16.9% $459,990 ‐2.1%2008 13,378 ‐1.3% $373,238 ‐18.9%

Source: MRIS

Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices2000/2008

Total Sales Median Sales Price

Existing Home Sales and Median Sales Prices: 2000 ‐ 2008

19,894

21,18122,303

24,221

25,717

23,114

16,314

13,557 13,378

$209,000

$238,000

$275,000

$315,000

$385,000

$479,195 $470,000 $459,990

$373,238

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Med

ian Sales Price

Total Ann

ual Sales

Sales

Median Sales Price

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Close Price 2007 2008

< $200K 219 1,122

$200s 1,606 2,351

$300s 3,046 2,609

$400s 2,912 1,643

$500s 2,052 1,032

$600s 1,306 626

$700s 781 398

$800s 478 219

$900s 302 101

$1Ms 748 332

> $2M 110 71

2007 vs. 2008 Variance

< $200K 412.3%

$200s 46.4%

$300s ‐14.3% Source: MRIS

$400s ‐43.6%

$500s ‐49.7%

$600s ‐52.1%

$700s ‐49.0%

$800s ‐54.2%

$900s ‐66.6%

$1Ms ‐55.6%

> $2M ‐35.5%

0 #DIV/0!

The largest percentage growth in sales in 2008 compared to the same time in 2007 has been among listings priced less than $200,000 (+400%). In fact, every price category has declined except for those listings priced below $300,000.

YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification

219

1,606

3,0462,912

2,052

1,306

781

478302

1,122

2,351

2,609

1,643

1,032

626

398219

101

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

< $200K $200s $300s $400s $500s $600s $700s $800s $900s

Total YTD

Sales 2007

2008

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.5%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 32.7%

12 Month High: Jun 08 1,487

12 Month Low: Jan 08 5652008 Average 1,1152007 Average 1,131

High Sales: Alexandria 207Low Sales: Great Falls 13

Source: MRIS

Alexandria typically records the most sales in a given month. In December, Alexandria's sales represented 18% of the total. The more affluent areas of Great Falls, McLean and Oakton typically post the fewest sales.

Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months)

Total Sales

Sales in December were 107% higher than they were in January and the 12‐month trend is up. After 3 consecutive months of declines, the total sales jumped 35% over November's results.

565

736

998

1,158

1,326

1,487

1,392 1,355

1,257

1,064

870

1,170

500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08

Mon

thly Sales

207

51 56

98

22

113122

13

118

56 50

15

80

113

56

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Mon

thly Sales

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 0.0%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐25.6%12 Month High: Jun 08 $412,00012 Month Low: Dec 08 $320,000

2008 Average $373,2382007 Average $454,782

High MSP: Great Falls $1,070,000

Low MSP: Herndon $242,000

Source: MRIS

Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months)

Median sales prices are trending way down in Fairfax County. There was no change in December from the low posted in November and the on a year‐over‐year basis, the MSP was down 26%. Median prices in the low $300s have not occurred since the 2003 time frame.

Median Sales Price

$399,900

$405,000

$395,000 $399,000

$397,000

$412,000

$379,950$375,000

$326,000

$350,000

$320,000

$320,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$380,000

$400,000

$420,000

$440,000

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08Average

Close Price

$302,000$290,700

$290,000$275,000$264,000

$380,000$312,500

$1,070,000

$242,000

$333,000

$590,000

$700,000

$274,000$305,000

$563,920

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

Avg Close Price

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 47.1%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 31.9%

12 Month High: Jun 08 764

12 Month Low: Jan 08 2592008 Average 5292007 Average 491

Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐4.7%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐25.1%12 Month High: Mar 08 $619,78112 Month Low: Sep 08 $514,060

2008 Average $588,4702007 Average $715,423

Source: MRIS

Total sales of detached units are trending up even after five consecutive months of declines. The first quarter was dismal in 2008.

The Average Close Price for detached units is trending down. After two months of increases, December had a 5% decline. Prices have fallen 14% since the high in March (‐$77,616) and 25.1% from last December (‐$181,317).

Monthly SFD Sales (Last Twelve Months)

Monthly SFD Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months)

259

337 423

508

663

764726

664

555

499

382

562

250

350

450

550

650

750

850


Mon

thly Sales

$615,443

$605,275

$619,781

$608,892

$605,511$616,866

$610,536 $608,025

$514,060

$546,253

$568,828

$542,165

$500,000

$520,000

$540,000

$560,000

$580,000

$600,000

$620,000

$640,000


Average

Close Price

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 23.1%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 69.0%



Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐5.9%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐26.6%12 Month High: Mar 08 $383,64812 Month Low: Dec 08 $290,957

2008 Average $343,5792007 Average $428,453

Source: MRIS

Thre trend is down for the average close price for attached units in Fairfax County. The average price in December was 27% less than in last December (‐$105,227).

Monthly SFA Sales (Last Twelve Months)

Sales in December 2008 of attached units were up 69% compared to last December and down 13.2% from the 12‐month high reached in June.

Monthly SFA Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months)

155

235

328

386402

491

437

479456

421

346

426

150

250

350

450

550


Mon

thly Sales

$383,648

$380,614$370,587

$369,217$352,208

$372,631

$341,149$336,270

$304,672

$311,913$309,087

$290,957

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

$350,000

$375,000

$400,000

$425,000


Average

Close Price

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 29.1%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 11.0%



Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 8.6%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐18.5%12 Month High: Jan 08 $282,89912 Month Low: Nov 08 $213,994

2008 Average $254,8372007 Average $311,697

Source: MRIS

Like all product types, condo prices declined about 19% in 2008 (‐$52,617). Prices declined seven out twelve months in 2008.

Monthly CON Sales (Last Twelve Months)

Condo sales are trending up in Fairfax with six months of increases. The first and last quarters of 2008 posted total sales less than 200 units but the May ‐September period were strong.

Monthly CON Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months)

124132

178 179

213

198

229212

246

144141

182

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275


Mon

thly Sales

$282,899

$272,992

$278,340$274,541

$264,805

$253,776

$257,564$255,014

$232,243

$239,457

$213,994

$232,418

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000


Average

Close Price

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐15.9%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐40.7%

12 Month High: Jan 08 12.512 Month Low: Dec 08 4.7

2008 Average 6.92007 Average 6.8

High MSI: Great Falls 12.3

Low MSI: Burke,Herndon 3.3

Source: MRIS

Herndon had the lowest MSI in September, October, November and December with only + or ‐ 3 months supply of available inventory. Great Falls and McLean, with their high priced inventory, have the largest available supply. Eight of the fifteen areas are in equilibrium though.

Month's Supply of Inventory

Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months)

FRC considers the market to be in equilibrium (there is enough supply to satisfy demand) when the MSI is at 4 to 5 months. After reaching a high of 12.5 months in January, the figure hovered around 5.5 months from June to November. With December's low figure, the trend is down (a good thing) and puts Fairfax's market in equilibrium.

12.5

10.2

8.07.3

6.4

5.5 5.7 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.5

4.7

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08MSI

5.05.5

3.33.8

4.3

6.0

4.0

12.3

3.34.1

7.0

5.8

3.74.4

5.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

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12 mo High CP/LP %: Apr 08 93.8%12 mo Low CP/LP %: Nov 08 90.7%

12 Month Average 92.0%2008 Average 92.0%2007 Average 93.8%

High CP/LP %: Lorton 96.1%Low CP/LP %: Great Falls 87.4%

Source: MRIS

Lorton's sellers had the highest Close Price to List Price ratio in Decvember while those in Great Falls accepted offers for only 87% of their asking price, on average, up from 76% in November.

Average Close Price to Average List Price %

Average Close Price to Average List Price %

This indicator measures the willingness of sellers to negotiate price. The 12 month trend for the last quarter of 2008 was up, but following five months of declines culminating in the exceptionally low November ratio, the trendline is now headed down slightly. The average was 92.0% for the year.

90.8%

91.5%

91.2%

93.8%

92.1%

93.1% 92.9% 92.9%

92.4%

91.7%

90.7%

91.0%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%


CP to

LP %

89.7% 89.4%

93.0%93.5% 93.2%

91.1%

89.8%

87.4%

92.3%

96.1%

88.8%87.9%

91.4% 91.3%

94.1%

85.0%

87.0%

89.0%

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 0.0%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐10.4%

12 Month High: Feb 08 123

12 Month Low: Jun 08 8612 Month Average: 102

2008 Average 1022007 Average 87

High DOMP: Falls Church 147Low DOMP: Centreville 65

Source: MRIS

Nine of the fifteen markets had average days on market less than 100 days in December.

Monthly DOMP (Last Twelve Months)

Monthly DOMP

The twelve‐month DOMP average was been below 100 days for seven of the last twelve months. The twelve month trend is down even though both December had no change over November.

119123

117

108

94

86

9489

96

103

95 95

60

80

100

120

140

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08Mon

thly DOMP

10899

6979

65

97101

147

86 89

102

135

79

96

109

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Mon

thly DOMP

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐21.6%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 375.9%

12 Month High: Nov 08 328

12 Month Low: Jan 08 82

12 Month Average: 179

2008 Average 1022007 Average 30

High FCSS MSI: Annandale/FFX 6.0

Low FCSS MSI: Great Falls 0.0

Source: MRIS

Based on the number of listings and sales in December, Annandale and Fairfax have the largest month's supply of the listings available with these foreclosure type designations. Great Falls has the fewest.

Caution : Realtors are not required to add these designations so these charts merely show trends. Also, these are NOT foreclosures recorded in the circuit court.

These figures include listings with REO properties, short sales, foreclosures and pre‐foreclosures designations. The trend is steeply up over the last year but down last month. The November figure was almost double the October's foreclosure sales and December' figure is 213% higher than the year's low point in January.

Sales Designated as Foreclosures, Short Sales, REO Properties, Pre‐Foreclosures

Month's Supply of Foreclosure Inventory

82

96

129

120

158

199188

197

221

169

328

257

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08To

tal FC/SS

3.9

6.0

2.3

3.0

2.1

6.0

4.8

0.0

4.3 4.24.8 5.0

2.9

5.25.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Total FC/SS

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High Listings FCSS: Alexandria 191

Low Listings FCSS: Great Falls 7

High Sales FCSS: Alexandria 191Low Sales FCSS: Great Falls 7

Source: MRIS

Alexandria and Centreville had the highest number of sales with these designations in December while the more affluent areas like Great Falls and Oakton had the fewest.

The number of listings with foreclosure type designations jumped 10% in December to a new high of 1,055 listings. Alexandria accounts for 18.1% of the county's total foreclosure/short sale listings.

Listings with Foreclosure, Short Sale, etc. Designations as of January 1, 2009

Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings

191

72

46

111

21

114101

7

9472

19 10

44

124

29

0

50

100

150

200

250

Total FC/SS

191

72

46

111

21

114101

7

9472

19 10

44

124

29

0

50

100

150

200

250

Total FC/SS

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High FCSS Listings %: Nov 08 19.9%

Low FCSS Listings %: Jul 08 7.5%

High FCSS Sales%: Nov 08 37.7%Low FCSS Sales %: Apr 08 10.4%

Source: MRIS

The 12‐month trend for the percentage of total sales with foreclosure and short sale designations is headed up. It ranged from 10% to 15% for eight months but accounted for almost 38% of the total sales in November. The percentage fell to 22% in December.

Foreclosure and Short Sale Designations as Percentage of Total Listings

The percentage of total listings with foreclosure and short sale designations is trending up, particularly with the 25% hike in November.

Foreclosure and Short Sale Designations as Percentage of Total Sales

7.7% 7.5%8.3% 9.6%

13.3%

19.9% 19.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08Pe

rcen

tage of T

otal

Listings

14.5%13.0%

12.9%

10.4% 11.9%13.4% 13.5%

14.5%

17.6%15.9%

37.7%

22.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%


Percen

tage of T

otal Sales

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City Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Sales City Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Listings

SPRINGFIELD NORTH SPRINGFIELD 6 RESTON RESTON 20

RESTON RESTON 6 ALEXANDRIA SEQUOYAH 19

ALEXANDRIA SEQUOYAH 5 SPRINGFIELD SPRINGFIELD 16

BURKE BURKE CENTRE 4 BURKE BURKE CENTRE 13

HERNDON PARK AVENUE SQUARE 4 ANNANDALE FAIRFAX HERITAGE 12

CENTREVILLE SINGLETONS GROVE 4 SPRINGFIELD NORTH SPRINGFIELD 12

HERNDON REFLECTION LAKE 4 FALLS CHURCH WOODLAKE TOWERS 11

CENTREVILLE SULLY STATION 4 HERNDON REFLECTION LAKE 10

SPRINGFIELD SPRINGFIELD 3 ALEXANDRIA MT VERNON VALLEY 8

CENTREVILLE FAIRCREST 3 ALEXANDRIA VILLAGES THE 8

CENTREVILLE LONDON TOWNE 3 CENTREVILLE MEADOWS THE 8

LORTON LAUREL HILL 3 CENTREVILLE LONDON TOWNE 8

BURKE LAKE BRADDOCK 3 HERNDON BRYSON AT 7

Partial list: Three or more sales per subdivision FAIRFAX FAIRFAX RIDGE 7

CENTREVILLE COUNTRY CLUB 7

FALLS CHURCH WEST LAWN 7

CENTREVILLE FAIRCREST 7

CENTREVILLE CENTRE RIDGE 6

LORTON LAUREL HILL 6

CENTREVILLE HERITAGE ESTATES 6

BURKE LAKEPOINTE 6

FALLS CHURCH BEL AIR 6

ALEXANDRIA BUCKNELL MANOR 6

ALEXANDRIA VIRGINIA HILLS 6

Source: MRIS

Foreclosure and Short Sales by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008

Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008

Partial list: Six or more listings per subdivision

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fairfax housing report 2008

Real Estate

december

andquot

asofdecember31

statuses

quot