fall 2014 enrollment
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Fall 2014 Enrollment. Fall 2015 Projections Mike Hoff Institutional Research & Effectiveness 9.25.14. Outline. Recap Fall 2014 Projections Provide Fall 2015 Projections Tennessee Promise Populations Impacted by Promise Populations Not Impacted by Promise - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fall 2014 Enrollment
Fall 2015 Projections
Mike Hoff
Institutional Research & Effectiveness
9.25.14
Outline
• Recap Fall 2014 Projections• Provide Fall 2015 Projections• Tennessee Promise
– Populations Impacted by Promise– Populations Not Impacted by Promise
• Discuss Potential Response To Promise
The ModelMarkov Chain
Markov Chain
– Is a time-series model that looks at past practice to predict future outcome
– For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class
– The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3
Markov Chain - Continued
• Markov chain was chosen because– It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state,
and out-of-state– It uses only institutional data– Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year
projections
• Population based models were rejected due to reliance on external projections
• ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected because of complexity without increased accuracy
Markov Chain – Assumptions
• Assumes a consistent external environment
• Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is projected as stable
Fall 2014 Projection Review
2014 Projection vs Actual
Year Projection Actual Difference % Difference
2010 14,860 14,952 -92 -0.619%
2011 15,188 15,250 -62 -0.408%
2012 15,428 15,133 295 1.912%
2013 14,967 14,691 276 1.844%
2014 14,430 14,433 -3 -.0003%
2014 Projection vs Actual
• The model was 99.99% accurate• This does not mean we didn’t influence
enrollment at ETSU this past year• This just means that all things being equal
we performed as the model would expect
Credits Generated
University Credits by Level 2010-2014
Year Total 1,xxx 2,xxx 3,xxx 4,xxx Graduate
2010 178,851 55,253 45,124 30,539 25,153 17,886
2011 182,281 56,596 46,650 30,966 26,348 17,188
2012 177,819 54,762 46,826 31,159 26,854 18,218
2013 171,366 51,561 44,227 30,398 26,356 18,824
2014 169,716 52,384 43,705 29,736 25,280 18,611
% Change -5.11% -5.19% -3.14% -2.63% 0.50% 4.05%
Total Credits Fall 2010 -2014
College 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Change
UNIV 178,851 182,281 177,819 171,366 169,716 -5.11%
AS 98,490 100,103 95,909 90,041 88,094 -10.56%
BT 29,870 29,676 29,554 28,950 29,267 -2.02%
CR 7,138 7,473 7,930 8,141 8,155 14.25%
CS 1,309 1,499 643 685 540 -58.75%
ED 19,877 20,067 20,468 20,692 19,418 -2.31%
NU 9,623 10,518 10,876 11,407 11,890 23.56%
PU 9,140 9,835 10,218 9,890 10,012 9.54%
Fall 2015 Projection
Fall 2015 Projection
Year Projection Actual Difference % Difference
2011 15,188 15,250 -62 -0.408%
2012 15,428 15,133 295 1.912%
2013 14,967 14,691 276 1.844%
2014 14,430 14,433 -3 -.0003%
2015 14,297 ± 2% NA NA NA
Fall 2015 Projection
• UG/GR enrollment 13,685– 1% drop from Fall 2014
• MED enrollment projected at 288• Pharm enrollment projected at 324• Total Projection 14,297
Fall 2015 Projection
• This model assumes we do everything the same and the external environment remains stable
• Two things we know:– The external environment will not remain
stable– We will improve
Enrollment Goals
Fall 2014 Growth GoalsCollege Recruitment
IncreaseRetentionIncrease Total Increase
AS 154 220 374
BT 84 121 205
CR 35 50 85
CS 17 25 42
ED 75 107 182
NU 57 82 139
PU 18 25 43
Total 440 630 1,070
Fall 2014 Growth Outcomes
College Goal Actual Growth FA13-FA14
AS 374 -152
BT 205 47
CR 85 23
CS 42 -10
ED 182 -91
NU 139 55
PU 43 79
Total 1,070 -49
Fall 2015 Enrollment Goal
• The primary objective is to maintain Fall 2014 actual enrollments, thus compensating for any impact of Tennessee Promise
• Also, to continue the pursuit of the growth agenda metrics that have been identified to represent a stretch goal of 15,000
Fall 2015 Enrollment GoalsFall 2015 College Enrollment Goals
College FA2014 Enrollment
FA2015 Projected Increase Goal Flat Resulting
EnrollmentIncrease Goal
15,000Resulting
Enrollment
AS 4,195 4,068 77 4,145 173 4,241
BT 2,479 2,480 46 2,526 104 2,584
CR 964 964 18 982 40 1,004
CS 415 416 8 424 17 433
ED 2,045 2,045 38 2,083 87 2,132
NU 1,787 1,786 33 1,819 75 1,861
PU 609 609 13 622 29 638
Other 1,328 1,198 23 1,221 53 1,251
Total 13,822 13,566 256 13,822 578 14,144
Submit Growth Plans That…• Plans:
– Must outline plan for both flat enrollment and growing to 15,000 students
– Must be college specific– Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona fide
improvement tactics– Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented
• Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals
– Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives– Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested pending
available funds– Should depict college assessment of risk
Don’t Limit Your Plan• Consider
– Pedagogy & Delivery Systems– Curriculum
• Bridge Courses
– New Markets (International & Domestic)– New Collaborations– Alternative Schedules & Calendars– New Partnerships– New Student Populations
• With distinctive career goals• Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning, International,
Out-of-state, etc.)• Trade impacted workers
– Service to others
TENNESSEE PROMISE
What is Tennessee Promise?
• “Last dollar” grant to cover all tuition at TN community colleges, TCAT’s or 4-year institutions offering an Associate Degree
• Available to all TN high school graduates beginning with class of 2015
• No GPA or ACT/SAT requirements to qualify
• Includes mentoring Program
Requirements/Deadlines
• Apply for Tennessee Promise by November 1• Submit FAFSA by February 15• Attend first mandatory meeting coordinated by
partnering organization – March 1• Attend second mandatory meeting coordinated
by partnering organization – May 31• Complete first 8 hours of community service –
August 1
POPULATION IMPACTED BY PROMISE
ETSU First-Time Freshmen
• Total First-Time Freshmen Population– 2,001
• Population Impacted by Tennessee Promise
• Total Tennessee First-Time Freshmen Fall 2014– 1,694 (85% of Total First-Time Freshmen)
• Target group has an ACT between 18-24– 887 Fall 2014
Projected Impact
Scenario State Guidance Worst Case
Impact 7% Decline* All ACT 18-24
Current Total 1,694 1,694
Projected Loss 119 887
Resulting Enrollment 1,575 807
*Based on the November 1st Registration Deadline
POPULATION NOT IMPACTED BY PROMISE
Populations Not Impacted
• Border County• Regional Enrollment• Out-of-State• E-Rate• Veterans
• Transfer Students• International Students• Graduate Students• Retained Students
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
Border County 765 834 870 884 990 871
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
R² = 0.736338542551385
Border County Enrollment
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013
Regional Counties 234 227 208 255 269
25
75
125
175
225
275R² = 0.420269560651146
Regional County Enrollment
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
Out-of-State
959 1014 975 1095 980 1133
875
925
975
1025
1075
1125
R² = 0.440724346076459
Out-of-State Enrollment (Not Border)
Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
E-Rate 13 40 131 170 205
25
75
125
175
225R² = 0.965671008962381
E-Rate
Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
Veteran Enrollment 444 457 483 491 548
50
150
250
350
450
550R² = 0.904714824198233
Veteran Enrollment
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
Transfer Stu-dent HC
1173 1111 1253 1189 1132 1057
975
1025
1075
1125
1175
1225
1275
R² = 0.872736908135234
Transfer Student HC
One Year Retention and Graduation
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 20120
102030405060708090
100
74.5 74.3 74.1 73.780.5 78.3 78.9 79.7
TransferAll Other
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
Interna-tional
292 320 321 396 473 488
50
150
250
350
450
550
International
Graduate
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 20140
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2222 2207 2123 2269 2260 2271
34683773 3639 3669
39124333
HCApplications
Retained Students
• Improving retention is imperative to growing enrollment, and graduation
• From Fall 2013 to Fall 2014 we lost 430 students with no financial hold and a GPA of 3.0 or higher– Finding away to keep even half of these
students could be enough to manage the potential impact of Tennessee Promise
Current Initiatives To Mitigate TN Promise
• Improve Advising– Hiring 14 Professional Advisors– Expanding use of the EAB Student Success
Collaborative
• Restructure Scholarships– Presentation by Kathy Feagins
Closing Thoughts
Closing Thoughts
• Fall 2015 Enrollment Projected between 14,178 and 14,583
• Just to maintain the level of enrollment achieved in Fall 2014 is going to require purposeful and effective recruitment and retention efforts
• Our response to Tennessee Promise is two-pronged– Limit the loss of Tennessee First-Time Freshmen– Grow Populations not impacted by Tennessee Promise
Discussion