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Fall-Winter Season 2019-2020Beans and Chickpeas
Felipe Sandoval
Cancun, Mexico
February 2020
Bean Industry in Mexico
SupplyImports
*USA
*Argentina
*China
*Brasil
* Black / Pinto
Spring SummerCycle
* Black / Pinto / Colored
* Chihuahua / Durango / Zacatecas
Fall Winter Cycle
* Yellow / Pinto / Black Colored
* Sinaloa / Nayarit / Sonora
DistributionWholesalers
Central de Abastos
Distribuidoras
*
Retailers
Supermarkets
Convinience Stores
Abarroteras
Industry
Packers
Processors
Consumption
126 Millions
Percapita 6 kg
756,000 MT
Percapita 7 kg
882,000 MT
Percapita 8 kg
1,080,000 MT
Take a look at thenewspaper, tv,
networks, phonecalls, meetings and
you see iteverywhere
Daño a 9 mil hectáreas de frijol, saldo preliminar de
las lluvias en Sinaloa
Lo más crítico está en la región del Évora, aunque
también hay afectaciones en Navolato y Guasave, indicó
el Subsecretario de Agricultura
Por el mal tiempo peligra 70% de la zona frijolera en
Nayarit
En la zona norte de la entidad, se estima que se tienen 30
mil hectáreas sembradas de las que cinco mil se echaron
a perder a principios del año
Disminuye la cosecha de frijol en un 46 %
Según datos de la Sader, se redujo en 2019 respecto a la producción de 2018
Zacatecas, Durango, Chihuahua, Sonora, Nayarit,
everywhere. Newspapers and media pushing farmers
Thinking about all, what is on my
mind?The Perfect Storm
Blew my mind
Bean Production in Sinaloa
2010-2019
2010-2019
Average
PlantedArea
89,500 Ha.
Production
130,000 MT
Price
$15,500.00
• Almost 100% yellow kidney beans.• Source: SIAP SAGARPA / SIVASA
Bean Production in Sinaloa 2020 (F)
2019-2020 Cycle
Intention
100,000 Ha.
Given USA and Spring-Summer cycle
conditions
Planted Area
60,000 Ha.
60% of expected
* Expensive Seed
*Water availability
* Limited Financing
* Early Rains
Short Harvest and LowQuality
* Rains at the beginning
* November rains
* February Rains
* Cold Weather
Bean Production in Sinaloa
2019-2020 (F)
Season Damage
2018-2019 2019-2020 (F) 15% 25%
Planted Area (Hectares) 35,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00
Harvested Area (Hectares) 35,000.00 57,000.00 51,000.00 45,000.00
Yield (MT per HA) 1.57 1.57 1.4 1.2
Production (Metric Tons) 54,950.00 89,490.00 71,400.00 54,000.00
Carry Over (Metric Tons) 50,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00
Available for Sale (Metric Tons) 104,950.00 99,490.00 81,400.00 64,000.00
Exports (Metric Tons) 15,000.00 15,000.00 15,000.00 15,000.00
Seed (Metric Tons) 6,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00
Waste (Metric Tons) 2,000.00 3,311.13 2,641.80 1,998.00
Self Consumption (Metric Tons) 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00
Available for Domestic Market (Metric Tons) 80,950.00 70,178.87 52,758.20 36,002.00
Domestic Consumption (Metric Tons) 70,950.00 70,178.87 52,758.20 36,002.00
Final Stock (Metric Tons) 10,000.00 - - -
Domestic Consumption per Month (Metric Tons) 5,912.50 5,848.24 4,396.52 3,000.17
Quality Issues
• Stained
• Wrinkled
• Rotten
• 25-30% Harvested
• 35-40% Cut
• 30-35% Stand
What isHappening?
• Farmersrenegotiating
• No show trucks
• Farmers storing
Bean Production in Sinaloa
Price Behavior
Factors 2019
StocksDomestic PintoImported Pinto
Household IncomePrevious Year Loss
Forecast ProductionQuality Issues
Competition
Factors 2020
StocksDomestic PintoImported Pinto
Forecast ProductionFarmers Pushing
HouseHold IncomeQuality Issues
Disperse OwnersOverspeculation
Subtitute Products
Bean Production in Nayarit
2010-2019
2010-2019
Average
PlantedArea
58,500 Ha.
Production
63,000 MT
Yield
1.16
• Pinto, Black Jamapa, Colored, Yellow• Source: SIAP SAGARPA / SIVASA
Bean Production in Nayarit
2018, 2019 and 2020
Planted Area (Hectares) and Estimated Production
• Rains• 90% of planted area stand• Damage not estimated yet
2018MT
2019MT
Planted 2020
Production (F)MT
Black Jamapa 23,041.67 14,200.00 22,500.00 26,100.00
Yellow Beans 28,527.78 7,100.00 7,500.00 8,700.00
Pinto Beans 17,555.56 35,500.00 30,000.00 34,800.00
Light Beans 9,875.00 14,200.00 15,000.00 17,400.00
Production 79,000.00 71,000.00 75,000.00 87,000.00
Chickpeas Production 2009-2018
Sinaloa + Sonora + Baja
2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 AVG
Planted Area (Hectares) 63,331.00 48,819.00 73,682.00 166,841.00 74,140.00 85,362.60
Production (Metric Tons) 107,031.00 86,285.00 138,009.00 303,832.00 165,677.00 160,166.80
Chickpeas Production 2015-2019
Cycle Planted Area Price to Farmers (USD/MT)% Planted Area change
% Price
Change
2015-2016 48,800.00 $ 1,045.00
2016-2017 73,700.00 $ 1,480.00 51.02% 41.63%
2017-2018 166,800.00 $ 800.00 126.32% -45.95%
2019 74,100.00 $ 620.00 -55.58% -22.50%
2020 ? ? ? ?
5 years Average 85,000.00 $ 836.00
Price Sensitivity vs Planted Area 2016-2019
2017 2018 2019
Opening Price $ 27.50 $ 17.50 $ 17.00
Avg Price $ 28.30 $ 14.80 $ 12.00
Highest Price $ 32.00 $ 20.00 $ 17.00
Lowest Price $ 23.00 $ 11.00 $ 6.00
Price Paid to Farmers2017 -2019
Chickpeas Production 2017 Vs 2018 Vs 2019
Planted Area2017-2020
2017 2018 2019 2020 %Var 2018 Vs 2019 %Var 2019 vs 2020
Sinaloa 44,200.00 101,450.00 38,574.00 26,000.00 -61.98% -32.60%
Sonora 25,700.00 60,293.00 22,237.00 10,000.00 -63.12% -55.03%
South Baja 3,800.00 4,468.00 4,203.00 2,000.00 -5.93% -52.41%
Total Planted 73,700.00 143,800.00 65,014.00 38,000.00 -54.79% -41.55%
Chickpeas Production
Chickpeas Harvest• Lowest Price and payment delay• Domestic market consumption• Effect came a year later• Lowest Planted Area• Frost In Sonora• Frost in Sinaloa• India not Exporting• Price CFR $1,200- $1,300• Opening Price to Farmers $800
THANKYOU VERY MUCH AND ENJOY CANCUN
FELIPE SANDOVALTRADER
BEANS AND GRAINS INTERNATIONAL TRADERSBEGRAIT
Mob. + 52 1 687 174 8663