FANTASY FOOTBALL 2014: 17 OVERVALUED & UNDERVALUED PLAYERS

By Jared Smola

Early Look at Undervalued and Overvalued Players

The best part about finalizing our player rankings is seeing where we stand on guys vs. the rest of the fantasy world. Who do we like more than the pack? Who are we lower on? That’s what ultimately determines the players who will and won’t be on Draft Sharks squads.

But let’s take an early look at guys who are being undervalued and overvalued in early fantasy football drafts. We’re using our PPR rankings and ADP data from public drafts on MyFantasyLeague.com.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Robert Griffin, QB, RedskinsDS Rank: QB4ADP Rank: QB9

It’s no surprise that people are down on RG3 after his ugly 2013 campaign. He ranked 19th in passing yards, tossed just 16 TDs vs. 12 INTs and didn’t score a single rushing TD.

Still, he ranked 12th among QBs in fantasy points per game. Consider that his floor in 2014. His ceiling extends much higher.

Griffin was brilliant as a 2012 rookie, finishing 5th in points per game. Expect him to return to that level this season. Reports on RG3’s health have been positive all offseason. He added WR DeSean Jackson to his arsenal. And he gets a HC that made Andy Dalton a top 3 fantasy QB last year.

Griffin is your top QB target in fantasy drafts this summer.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Carson Palmer, QB, CardinalsDS Rank: QB18ADP Rank: QB23

Palmer is going undrafted in a lot of leagues right now. We like him as a valuable half of a QB by committee.

He got off to a slow start last year, not surprising considering he was with a new team learning a new offense. But over his final 8 games, Palmer posted top 12 fantasy QB numbers.

With another year in HC Bruce Arians’ offense -- plus continued growth from WR Michael Floyd and RB Andre Ellington -- Palmer could be even better in 2014. He’s 1 of the best reasons to wait on a QB in 2014 fantasy drafts.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Rashad Jennings, RB, GiantsDS Rank: RB15ADP Rank: RB27

The knocks against Jennings are that he’s never been a lead back for an entire season and that he’s 29. But he’s certainly looked good in spurts, with career averages of 4.3 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per catch. And his 484 NFL touches mean he’s a “young 29.”

The Giants signed Jennings to be their feature back. His ball security and pass-protection skills will endear him to HC Tom Coughlin.

Neither David Wilson nor rookie Andre Williams is a serious threat to Jennings’ starting job this season. We have him projected for 264 total touches -- and that might be conservative.

Jennings looks like a weekly RB2 that you can get for a RB3 price.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Joique Bell, RB, LionsDS Rank: RB18ADP Rank: RB23

Bell finished 14th among RBs in PPR scoring last year. His role is expected to grow under new OC Joe Lombardi this season. Yet Bell is the 23th RB off the board in early fantasy drafts.

We’ll see if his ADP climbs this summer. But for now, he looks like a prime RB2 target if you go with a WR-heavy start.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Dexter McCluster, RB, TitansDS Rank: RB42ADP Rank: RB68

There are very few true “sleepers” in our FF-crazed world nowadays. But McCluster qualifies.

The new Titan is off the radar, going undrafted in most leagues. But he’s capable of emerging as a RB3 or flex for your PPR team.

Tennessee clearly wanted McCluster, snagging him on the very 1st day of free agency. New HC Ken Whisenhunt just got a big season out of Danny Woodhead in San Diego and could have similar plans for McCluster.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on the Titans’ backfield all summer. But snagging McCluster with 1 of your last few picks is a no-risk move.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Kendall Wright, WR, TitansDS Rank: WR18ADP Rank: WR28

Wright finished 20th among WRs in PPR scoring last year, despite scoring just twice on 94 catches. Give him even 5 TDs -- still a conservative number on 94 grabs -- and he would have climbed to 18th.

That’s where we have Wright in our 2014 rankings. His numbers don’t even need to grow beyond his 2013 production to get there. He just needs a little more TD luck.

At his current ADP, Wright is an ideal WR3 target.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Mike Wallace, WR, DolphinsDS Rank: WR21ADP Rank: WR32

Not much went right for Wallace last year. He was stuck in OC Mike Sherman’s vanilla offense and could never quite get on the same page as QB Ryan Tannehill.

Still, Wallace finished 27th at his position in PPR fantasy leagues. Consider that his floor in 2014, making him a no-risk pick at WR32.

And Wallace’s ceiling extends much higher. He’ll be in a much more creative offense under new OC Bill Lazor and has another offseason to work with Tannehill.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Cecil Shorts, WR, JaguarsDS Rank: WR29ADP Rank: WR39

We’re not clamoring for Shorts. He’s not an elite talent and has a couple rookie WRs to contend with this season. Plus, Jacksonville wants to deploy a run-heavy offense.

But Shorts should remain the top option in the passing game. He’s a good bet for WR3 value based on his target total alone. That makes him a fine value pick at his current 9 th-round ADP.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Kenny Stills, WR, SaintsDS Rank: WR39ADP Rank: WR51

We broke down Stills’ value in last week’s podcast. Simply put, he’s a talented receiver set to see an increased role in an explosive passing game.

Stills has been undervalued all offseason. His ADP has dropped even further since New Orleans added rookie Brandin Cooks. We’ll see what Cooks’ role looks like this summer, but there’s room for both him and Stills to see 80+ targets.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Martellus Bennett, TE, BearsDS Rank: TE7ADP Rank: TE14

The Bears are a relatively easy offense to evaluate because very little has changed from last year. They return the same core personnel and will have had another offseason in HC Marc Trestman’s offense.

There’s little reason to expect a step back from their skill-position guys. That includes Bennett, who finished 10th among TEs in PPR scoring last year. We like his chances of finishing at least that high in 2014. He’s a prime target if you wait on your TE.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Delanie Walker, TE, TitansDS Rank: TE13ADP Rank: TE18

Walker quietly finished as a top 12 TE in PPR scoring last year. More importantly, only 6 TEs scored more points than Walker over the season’s final 8 games.

Now he gets a coaching staff loaded with TE expertise. That includes HC Ken Whisenhunt, who even compared Walker to Antonio Gates.

That’s obviously lofty, but Walker certainly looks capable of another low-end TE1 finish. He’s a nice half of a TE-by-committee that can be had in the 12th or 13th round of drafts.

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:

Marcedes Lewis, TE, JaguarsDS Rank: TE18ADP Rank: TE41

Yeah, it’s tough to get excited about Lewis. He’s playing on a run-first offense with QB issues. And he’s not an elite talent.

But Lewis could finish 2nd on the Jaguars in targets this year. He’s still only 30 and closed last season with TDs in 4 of his final 5 games.

Lewis isn’t even getting drafted in most leagues. He’s at least worth considering with 1 of your last few picks as a matchup starter.

OVERVALUED PLAYERS

OVERVALUED PLAYERS:

Tom Brady, QB, PatriotsDS Rank: QB14ADP Rank: QB10

We don’t dislike Brady as a low-end QB1 or half of a QB by committee. He could post a top 10 season if TE Rob Gronkowski stays healthy and New England’s young WRs step up.

The issue is that Brady is coming off the board in the 8 th round. You can get Tony Romo a round later; Jay Cutler a couple of rounds later. That’s much better value than Brady in the 8th. You’d even get better bang for your buck by pairing 2 of Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer in Rounds 12+.

OVERVALUED PLAYERS:

Ryan Mathews, RB, ChargersDS Rank: RB28ADP Rank: RB19

Mathews was a bum this time last year, an underachiever who couldn’t stay healthy.

A 16-game, 1,200-yard season later and everyone is back on the bandwagon. Mathews is coming off the board as a solid RB2 in PPR drafts. But even last season, which might go down as a career year, he finished 17th.

Mathews will remain the lead back in a run-first offense this season. But free-agent addition Donald Brown figures to steal a few carries per game. Danny Woodhead will continue to see the majority of the pass-catching work. And Mathews’ durability concerns remain.

Undervalued last summer, Mathews looks overvalued this time around.

OVERVALUED PLAYERS:

Ben Tate, RB, BrownsDS Rank: RB34ADP Rank: RB20

It’s easy to see the upside with Tate. He’ll get the 1st crack at the lead job in a run-heavy offense piloted by OC Kyle Shanahan, who has produced plenty of big RB seasons.

But Tate has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career. He’s already been “nicked-up” this spring. And he has a couple of talented rookies to fend off in Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell.

Tate could climb into our top 25 with a strong August. But for now, we’re not willing to bet on him as a RB2.

OVERVALUED PLAYERS:

Keenan Allen, WR, ChargersDS Rank: WR16ADP Rank: WR11

Allen turned in one of the best rookie seasons by a WR in recent memory last year. But the history of guys like that improving in Year 2 isn’t promising.

That’s what early drafters are banking on, though. Allen is coming off the board as WR11 after finishing 18th in PPR scoring last year.

We see Allen as more of a mid-range WR2 than low-end WR1. Targets won’t be an issue, but he’ll face increased defensive attention this season. And San Diego will continue to lean toward the run after having success with that style of attack during the 2nd half of the season. Note that Allen ranked just 22nd in catches and 21st in yards among WRs over his final 8 games.

OVERVALUED PLAYERS:

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, VikingsDS Rank: WR31ADP Rank: WR14

Could Patterson finish as a top 15 WR this season? Sure. But it’ll take major progress from the raw rookie receiver we saw last season. And he’ll need better QB play.

At Patterson’s current ADP, you’re basically paying for his ceiling. He’s a long shot to finish any higher in the WR rankings and, thus, to return good draft-day value.

If you’re looking WR in the 4th round – where Patterson is going – we’d much rather take safer guys with similar or greater upside such as Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree or Michael Floyd.

OVERVALUED PLAYERS:

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ersDS Rank: TE8ADP Rank: TE5

Calling Davis’ 52-catch, 13-TD 2013 season fluky might be a bit harsh. But it’s fair to say that TD rate is unsustainable.

Davis had scored on 11.6% of his catches heading into 2013. That rate would have given him just 6 TDs last year. That’s a good starting point for his 2014 projection.

It’s also worth noting that Davis’ averages dropped by 1.4 catches and 28 yards after WR Michael Crabtree returned to the lineup last year.

It all makes him a prime candidate to be overdrafted this summer. He’s more mid-range starter than elite fantasy option.

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