fantasy football draft strategy

7/28/2019 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

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Its that time of the year when serious fantasy heads start thinking about the upcoming footb

season. With fantasy drafts roughly six to eight weeks away, the dedicated managers begin their

preparation and strategy. For the insanely obsessed, we have been reading and gathering informat

since the end of last fantasy season. Its not so much a passion as it is a way of life.

I love fantasy football, let me get that out of the way. I created a Twitter account solely for th

purpose of reading and following my favorite football writers. With that being said, respected writer

and tweeters alike have differing opinions about how to approach the draft. This is inevitable, to ea

his own. And while it fluctuates year by year, with positional depth and league scoring playing huge

determining factors, Ive found that given similar or identical parameters, opinions from successfulexperts are still drastically different.

What I wanted to do was conduct my own research to determine the validity of the varying dr

strategies Ive been reading about. To put it simply, I focused on the first 2 draft selections of 36

different mock drafts. The combination of these first 2 selections is listed below. Picks 3-16 of each

draft was done through the best player available to fill my starting roster, DST and kickers excluded

Taking that into consideration, if there was no available spot in my starting lineup I bypassed player

with a slightly higher ADP, in order to select the best player available at a position that needed to be

filled in my starting lineup.

To complete this study, I used the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator, which lets you draft agaexperts, ADP, or a combination of both. I chose to draft using the combination of experts and ADP,

felt that this was a more well-rounded approach to my data collection. I figured people in an ordina

draft rely on cheat sheets, but will also use their gut instinct at times as well (or at least should). I

thought this feature gave the most realistic interpretation of that scenario.

The combinations I focused on for each of the first 2 selections of the drafts are as follows:

RB/RB

RB/WR

RB/TE

WR/WR QB/TE

QB early (1st or 2nd round, paired with best available player at any position except TE)

In order to get accurate data, I did each of these combinations drafting from the 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8

10th and 12th slots in the draft order of a 12-team mock. So with the 6 position combinations and 6

draft positions, you get 36 mock drafts. To calculate each starting rosters total points, I used ESPN

2013 projected points for each player. For the purposes of my own leagues scoring, I wanted to co

QB passing tds as 6 points. However, the Draft Simulator point assignments were defaulted at 4 po

QB tds and couldnt be changed. Therefore, the simulator drafted QBs assuming passing tds were 4

points. If your league has 6 point passing tds, youre going to have to assume quarterbacks will be

drafted earlier. How much earlier depends on the people drafting with you and their draft strategie

but keep that in mind regardless. Additionally, any drafts that included Rob Gronkowski (health) an

Aaron Hernandez (legal) were under the assumption of a 16 game season despite their respective

issues. While Gronk at least has a chance at a 16 game season, Hernandez unfortunately does not.

included each players projected point totals in parentheses. Here are the results:

2nd Pick:

RB/RB RB/WR RB/TE WR/WR QB/TE Q

earlyQB- Stafford (288) QB- E. Manning (232) QB- Luck (280) QB- Wilson (294) QB- Rodgers (352) QB

Newton (323)


2/5

RB- Foster (261) RB- Foster (261) RB- Foster (261) RB- Bush (155) RB- Miller

RB- Foster (261)

RB- McFadden (168) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Bell (133) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Sproles (154) RB

Sproles (154)

WR- Harvin (177) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- J. Jones (186) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- D. Tho

(180) WR- Harvin (177)

WR- Nelson (154) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Nelson (154) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- S. Smith (137

WR- Nelson (154)

TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Pitta (107) TE- Gronk (173) TE- Rudolph (98) TE- Gronk (173) TE

Pitta (107)

Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- S. Smith (137) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Shorts (131)

Flex Wallace (154)

Total: 1,335 points Total: 1,265 points Total: 1,324 points Total: 1,294 points Total: 1,2

points Total: 1,330 points

Best Draft: RB/RB

Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 70 points

Point differential between highest and 2nd highest total: 5

4th Pick:


earlyQB- Luck (280) QB- Luck (280) QB- Luck (280) QB- Luck (280) QB- Rodgers (352) Q

Brady (336)

RB- Martin (226) RB- McFadden (168) RB- Charles (228) RB- Bush (154) RB- C. Johnson (17

RB- Charles (228)

RB- Forte (182) RB- Forte (182) RB- Bush (154) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Bush (154) RB

Sproles (154)

WR- Harvin (177) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- Nicks (126)

WR- D. Thomas (180)

WR- Wallace (154) WR- Colston (150) WR- Colston (150) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- S.Smith (154)

WR- Nelson (154)

TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gronk (173) TE- Pitta (107) TE- Gronk

TE- Gonzalez (133)Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Nicks (124) Flex- Ivory (128) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Ivory (128) Fle

Wallace (154)

Total: 1,306 points Total: 1,273 points Total: 1,293 points Total: 1,288 points Total: 1,


Best Draft: QB early


Point differential between highest and 2nd highest total: 33 points

6th Pick:


earlyQB- Romo (284) QB- Luck (280) QB- Stafford (288) QB- Stafford (288) QB- Brees

(334) QB- Brady (336)

RB- Martin (226) RB- Spiller (227) RB- Charles (228) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Sproles (154)

RB- Lynch (233)

RB- C. Johnson (172) RB- McFadden (168) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Ivory (128) RB- Mendenhall (119) RB- Miller

WR- Harvin (177) WR- J. Jones (186) WR- A. Johnson (177) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- Harvin (177)

WR- Harvin (177)

WR- Colston (150) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Nicks (126) WR- J. Jones (186) WR- Nelson (154)

WR- Nelson (154)

TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174)

TE- Gonzalez (133)

Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Amendola (1

Flex- S. Smith (137)


3/5

Total: 1,296 points Total: 1,325 points Total: 1,301 points Total: 1,302 points Total:

1,237points Total: 1,308 points

Best Draft: RB/WR


Point differential from highest total to 2nd highest total: 17 points

8th Pick:


early

QB- Romo (284) QB- Newton (323) QB- Luck (280) QB- Stafford (288) QB- Rodgers (352)QB- Brady (336)

RB- Charles (228) RB- Martin (226) RB- Lynch (233) RB- Sproles (155) RB- Murray (151)

RB- Charles (228)

RB- Forte (182) RB- Bell (133) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Ivory (128) RB- Miller (138) RB- Bush (

WR- Harvin (177) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Harvin (177) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- A. Johnson (177) WR

Thomas (180)

WR- Wallace (154) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Wallace (177) WR- Marshall (196) WR- Wallace (154)

WR- Wallace (154)

TE- Witten (123) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174) TE- Olsen (98) TE- Graham (174)

TE- Rudolph (98)

Flex- Bush (155) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Matthews (140) Flex- D. Thomas (180) Flex- Shorts (138)

Flex- Sproles (154)

Total: 1,303 points Total: 1,342 points Total: 1,335 points Total: 1,281 points Total: 1,2points Total: 1,305 points

Best Draft: RB/WR



10th Pick:


earlyQB- Stafford (288) QB- Romo (284) QB- Wilson (294) QB- Wilson (294) QB- Rodgers (352

QB- Brees (334)

RB- Rice (232) RB- Spiller (227) RB- Richardson (226) RB- Bush (155) RB- Murray (151) RB- McCoy(200)

RB- Morris (219) RB- McFadden (168) RB- Ivory (128) RB- Bell (133) RB- Miller (138)

RB- Miller (138)

WR- White (177) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Green (201) WR- A. Johnson (1

WR- A. Johnson (177)

WR- Cruz (152) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Wallace (154) WR

Cobb (171)

TE- Pitta (107) TE- Gonzalez (138) TE- Graham (174) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174

TE- Gonzalez (133)

Flex- S. Johnson (128) Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Antonio Brown (134) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Shorts (138

Flex- Wallace (154)

Total: 1,303 points Total: 1,350 points Total: 1,304 points Total: 1,295 points Total: 1,


Best Draft: RB/WR



12th Pick:

RB/RB RB/WR RB/TE WR/WR QB

QB earlyQB- Romo (284) QB- Stafford (288) QB- Romo (284) QB- Stafford (288) QB- Rodgers (35

QB- Brees (334)


4/5

RB- Morris (219) RB- Richardson (226)RB- Morris (219) RB- Bush (154) RB- Jones-Drew (172)RB

Morris (219)

RB- Forte (182) RB- Bush (154) RB- Bush (154) RB- McFadden (168) RB- McFadden (168) RB

Bush (154)

WR- Cobb (171) WR- Green (201) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Green (201) WR- V. Jackson (175)

WR- White (177)

WR- Cruz (152) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Decker (134) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Wallace (15

WR- Decker (134)

TE- Pitta (98) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174) TE- Daniels (98) TE- Graham (174) TE

Gonzalez (133)

Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Garcon (123) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Ball (162) Flex- T. Smith (138) Fle

Smith (137)

Total: 1,260 points Total: 1,302 points Total: 1,290 points Total: 1,273 points Total:

1,333 points Total: 1,288 points

Best Draft: QB/TE



DATA SUMMARY

PickNumber

Combination withgreatest startingroster points

Point differentialfrom highest tolowest total

Pointdifferentialfrom highest to2nd highest

total2 RB/RB 70 54 QB early 80 336 RB/WR 88 178 RB/WR 61 710 RB/WR 66 4312 QB/TE 73 31

While this data collection is only from a one-time experiment, what I found interesting was th

differences in points from the highest total to the second highest total. That is a more telling indica

of the quality of team drafted shown by the separation between the 1st and 2nd place team. So while

RB/RB totaled the highest total points while drafting from the 2nd spot (1,335), the difference from

RB/RB and going with a QB early (Rodgers/Brees) is only 5 points. Therefore, one might conclude thgoing QB early while drafting from the 2nd spot is the safer play because you essentially eliminate in

to your #1 pick (but not all the time, ie Brady 2008). This strategy is in direct contrast to what JJ

Zachariason and other advocates of drafting a QB late or even streaming QBs would do. Im not

supporting nor attacking any strategy, just providing something to consider.

On the flip side, there is a 43 point differential from the highest and 2 nd highest total while

drafting from the 10th spot. In this experiment, RB/WR provided the highest point total, and a

significant advantage over the second highest point total. To further the findings, of the 6 different

draft slots (2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th), the RB/WR combination recorded the highest point total in 3 of

them. Again, all of these numbers may end up being arbitrary because of the small sample size. I a

going to repeat the entire process and chart the same data in order to see if these conclusions are vand consistent.

Some food for thought regarding the findings:

1. Ive found that on drafts where I went WR/WR in the first two rounds, the best player on the

board in the third round was another dynamic WR such as Damaryius Thomas or Percy Havin

This makes for a high upside flex play in my opinion. The downside is you have to draft your

wisely in the next few rounds to make up for the lack of strength that the top RBs offer.

2. Ive found that when spending a high pick on a QB, TE or both, my bench was very thin. Guy

who would be a luxury to have on your bench in case of injury are now finding their way into

your starting lineup. So you have to weigh the cost benefit analysis for either decision.


5/5

3. Even after Graham and Gronk, I still valued tight ends fairly significantly. After Graham and

Gronk were taken by other teams, I still targeted Witten or Gonzalez in rounds 5-6. Those wh

believe in guys like Jared Cook, Jordan Cameron or Martellus Bennett this year can wait anoth

4-6 rounds for a tight end and grab another skill player instead, while possibly getting

comparable production at the tight end position.

4. These drafts were completed before Hernandez was arrested, and therefore he was drafted

under the assumption of a 16 game season. Widely believed to be the third tight end taken o

the board, there is a chance that guys like Witten and Gonzalez would not have been availab

the 6th round, which is when I was drafting them. This would alter rosters to a degree.

After I complete this entire process a second time, it will hopefully provide more insight as to

whether or not these findings are consistent. Not only will I look to determine consistency latera

(Did RB/WR still give me the highest total from the 8th slot the second time I drafted?), but also I

compare combinations vertically as well (Comparing RB/WR from the 8th slot the 1st time drafting

the 2nd time drafting)

fantasy football draft strategy

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