Forestry Department 1

FAO global outlook study and regional studies

Forestry Department 1

Forestry Department 2

FAO FORESTRY OUTLOOK STUDIES

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

STUDIES

REGIONAL

OUTLOOK STUDIES

Forestry Department 3

GLOBAL OUTLOOK STUDIES

• Global Forest Products Model

• Global Forest Products consumption, production, trade and prices

• Global outlook for future wood supply from plantations

• Woodfuel outlook

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REGIONAL OUTLOOK STUDIES

• Asia Pacific Forestry –Towards 2010 (1996)

• Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (2003)

• European Forestry Sector Outlook Studies (2005)

• Latin American Forest Sector Outlook Study (2005)

• Forestry Outlook Study for West and Central Asia (2007)

Forestry Department 5

FAO FOREST SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDIES

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

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THE FUTURE

• Deforestation and forest degradation will persist • Major shifts in wood demand and supply are

expected• More attention to environmental services is

expected• Wood as a source of energy will be rediscovered• Non-wood forest products for rural livelihoods will

develop

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DEFORESTATION & FOREST DEGRADATION

• In this area:• Loss of forests will continue due to:

– Expansion of subsistence cultivation– Large scale commercial cultivation

• Forests will increase in some economies• Incidence of fires, pests & diseases will increase

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Asia

IMPORTS

Europe

NC America

Asia

Europe

NC America

EXPORTS

WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND

• In this area:• Rapid growth of consumption in

emerging economies is expected• Changes in the source of wood

supplies will continue• Competitive advantages will

continue to replace natural advantages

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ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES

In this area:More attention is given to provision of environmental services, that is:

• Conservation of biological diversity• Watershed protection• Arresting land degradation and desertification • Carbon sequestration• Recreational use

The main question remains: who would pay for these global public goods?

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WOOD ENERGY

• Wood will remain as the main source of energy for cooking and heating in many developing countries

• Wood energy use will increase in many developed countries

• Conversion technologies will improve

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NON-WOOD FOREST PRODUCTS

• will develop as a source of livelihood• medicinal plants are gaining ground• collection and processing technologies need to

be improved• greater investments in value added products are

needed

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THE CHALLENGES• Keeping outlook short, but capturing all the key

issues and messages• Providing a balanced view of long term changes

and ensuring that we are not captive to short-term trends

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WHO USES OUTLOOK STUDIES

• National agencies in national forest programmes• World Bank – in the forest policy review• African Development Bank• CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture

Development Programme• NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development

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THE UNFOLDING FUTURE

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• Global crisis is going on• Decreasing are commodity prices: energy, food, etc. and a

surge in inflation.• Global shifts in the economic power, especially the rapid

growth of some of the Asian economies• Is globalization making the world flatter? Or is it

asymmetrical?• Environmental awareness is on the rise – climate change• A whole array of old and new challenges and opportunities• Are we likely to see major changes in society and forestry,

or will it be the “business-as-usual” situation?

A LOT OF CHANGES AROUND

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• Extremely diverse situation, even within countries

• Different perceptions of the same issues• What we see is a mosaic of situations,

continuously changing into another mosaic

• Providing an outlook of change based on snap shot is extremely challenging

• Geographical grouping of countries is very artificial and often conceals fundamental differences

A LOT OF CHELLENGES AHEAD

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OUTLOOK FOR PLANTED FORESTS

• Estimated area of planted forests in 2005 was 271 million ha

• Detailed assessment of planted forests was made in 61 countries accounted for 95% of world’s planted forests

• Planted forests in these countries are projected to increase up to 300 - 350 million ha by 2030

• Potential wood production from planted forests is to reach between 1.5 billion to 2 billion m3 by 2030

Planted forests in 2005 and 3 scenarios for 2030 (million m3 yr)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

TotalAsia PacificEuropeSouth AmericaNorth and Central AmericaAfrica

Forestry Department 18

AFRICA - OUTLOOK

• Deforestation and degradation will persist

• Negligible progress in sustainable forest management is expected

• High dependence on wood as fuel will continue

• Poverty related dependence on forests will persist

• Focus on low investment and low value added activities will continue

Forestry Department 19

THE ASIA-PACIFIC-OUTLOOK• A very mixed situation• Most of the natural forests

moving out of production• Planted forests and trees

outside forests are becoming the major source of wood supply

• Land use conflicts and deforestation in several countries will continue

Forestry Department 20

CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – OUTLOOK

• Forest reduction in the Amazon region in view of a combination of factors. Stability and recovery in Central America and Caribbean

• Growing importance of the region as an exporter of forest products based on wood production from planted forests

• Provision of environmental services becoming important in Central America and the Caribbean

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Total forestproducts

Primary woodproducts

Secondary woodproducts

Primary paperproducts

Non-wood forestproducts

Roundwood

Secondary paperproductsN

etim

port

Net

expo

rt

constant US$ million (2006)

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EUROPE - OUTLOOK

• Forest cover is to improve, especially as land dependency declines and agriculture land left uncultivated. Removal of agricultural subsidies could significantly accelerate this

• Shift to high value products in Western Europe: “Green”products and “Green energy”. Russia and some of the East European countries will focus on traditional products

• Provision of environmental services is a primary focus

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NORTH AMERICA - OUTLOOK• No significant changes in the forest area –

except of privately owned woodlands in the United States and community owned forests in Mexico.

• Growth in wood products demand entirely dependent on recovery of the US and global economy

• Significant adjustments in forest industry –scaling down production of traditional products and consolidation

• Wood energy is to become more important• More emphasis on environmental services -40,000

-35,000-30,000

-25,000-20,000-15,000

-10,000-5,000

05,000

10,00015,00020,000

25,000

30,00035,00040,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

All 3 countries

Canada

Mexico

USA

Net

impo

rtN

etex

port

current US$ million

Forestry Department 23

WEST & CENTRAL ASIA OUTLOOK

• Improvement in the extent of forests, largely on account of afforestation

• High dependence on imports to meet the demand for wood products

• Emphasis on provision of environmental services – especially arresting desertification and improving urban greenery

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Impo

rt(U

S$m

illio

n)

Central Asia andCaucasus

West Asia

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Non-woodforest products

Secondarywood products

Primary woodproducts

Secondarypaper products

Primary paperproducts

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IN THE FUTURE • Deforestation will persist in the tropics, while

relative stability/ improvement is expected in the sub-tropics and temperate regions

• Forget about SFM in the natural forests in the tropics, except of a very small scale to produce high quality wood for small niche markets

• Most wood requirements will be met from planted forests

• Hunter type of production of wood and non-wood forest products will decline significantly

• No short-supply of wood is expected

Forestry Department 25

IN THE FUTURE• Relocation of traditional wood industries will continue• A whole array of new green (wood and non-wood) products

will enter the market• Commercial scale cellulosic biofuel production will take

forestry into a very different path of development. This will lead to a significant increase in intensively managed highly productive planted forests, different from what we have seen so far

• Environmental services – especially recreation will become more important

• Most environmental services will be provided incidentally. Only a small part will be handled through market mechanism

Forestry Department 26

BUT WE CAN BE WRONG!!!

“…The greatest changes are almost certainly ahead of us. We can be sure that society of 2030 will be very different from that of today, and it will bear little resemblance to that predicted by today’s best-selling futurists”

Peter Drucker

Forestry Department 27

THANK YOU