FAO’s Nine-month Action Plan

Mitigating the impact of the conflict on livelihoods

Northeast Nigeria

September 2016 – May 2017

FAO’s Nine-month Action Plan

Mitigating the impact of the conflict on livelihoods

Northeast Nigeria

September 2016 – May 2017

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsRome, 2016

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©FAO/S. Nguyen

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Map of northeast Nigeria

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Table of Contents

Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 5

Responding to today’s needs and preparing for the future ...................................................................... 5

FAO’s nine-month Action Plan ................................................................................................................. 5

The next step: planning for strengthened recovery and resilience ........................................................... 7

Nine-month Action Plan for northeast Nigeria .............................................................................. 8

1. Situation and needs assessment .......................................................................................................... 8

1.1 A complex socio economic and agro-ecological setting ........................................................................ 8

1.2 The conflict and its consequences......................................................................................................... 9

1.3 Scenarios and consequences for FAO programming........................................................................... 12

2. Nine-month Action Plan..................................................................................................................... 14

2.1 Key assumptions .................................................................................................................................. 14

2.2 Programme design .............................................................................................................................. 15

2.2.1 The 2016–2017 dry season ............................................................................................ 16

2.2.2 Preparing for the 2017 rainy season ............................................................................... 16

2.3 Implementation arrangements ........................................................................................................... 17

2.4 Activity calendar .................................................................................................................................. 18

2.5 Risk analysis and mitigation measures ................................................................................................ 18

2.6 The use of the scenarios in the operations ......................................................................................... 18

Budget ................................................................................................................................................... 21

Effective food security coordination, analysis and information management ....................................... 21

Sector coordination ...................................................................................................................................... 21

Inclusive, comprehensive and targeted food security analysis and information management .................. 22

Strengthening FAO’s capacity in Nigeria ...................................................................................................... 22

Next steps: Strengthening the resilience of crisis-affected communities ...................................... 23

Linking emergency to recovery and resilience ....................................................................................... 23

Support the development of a multi-stakeholder resilience agenda in the Lake Chad region ................ 24

Conflict prevention and peace building ................................................................................................. 24

Contacts .................................................................................................................................... 25

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Acronyms

CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network

HRP Humanitarian Response Plan

IDP Internally displaced person

IOM International Organization for Migration

LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission

LGA Local Government Authority

NEMA National Emergency Management Agency

NGO Non-governmental Organization

OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

SEMA State Emergency Management Agency

UN United Nations

UXO Unexploded ordnances

WFP World Food Programme

“3 Ms” Mobility, mulit-activity and multipurpose

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Executive summary

USD 25 million is needed

To implement a large-scale urban and peri-urban livelihood support programme based on irrigated vegetable growing and micro-gardening

To prepare for the 2017 main season to provide urgently needed agricultural inputs to vulnerable farming families

To ensure FAO has the capacity to support international and national efforts in food security coordination, analysis and information management

Responding to today’s needs and preparing for the future

The emergency strategy of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is to strengthen capacity to rapidly restore food production among rural communities in affected areas to contribute significantly not just to improving food security, but also to paving the road back to resilience and stability in the region.

FAO is therefore focusing on: (i) mitigating the impact of the conflict on the livelihoods crisis; (ii) strengthening the resilience of communities affected by the crisis; and (iii) strengthening food security and livelihood sector coordination and food security analysis and

information management.

FAO’s nine-month Action Plan

Spanning from September 2016 to May 2017, the Action Plan comprises a set of activities covering the dry season 2016–17 and preparedness activities required to timely implement support to the 2017 main season.

The 2016–17 dry season

Target 48 000 IDP and host community households in northeastern Nigeria with vegetable kits to improve nutritional, food security and economic status as well as access to new technologies and practices for urban agriculture - Seed kits and support to small-scale irrigation: to benefit peri-urban IDPs in camps and host

communities as well as returnees and resident communities - Establishment of urban micro-gardening systems: seed kits and equipment (e.g. vertical

gardens, bag agriculture, etc.);

Small-scale rehabilitation of market facilities through cash- or food-for-work programmes and provision of equipment and material, especially in areas where people start moving back

Training using a needs-based approach

Fact-finding exploratory mission on land-related problems (e.g. tenure security linked to use/management and local conflict drivers)

Preparing for the 2017 rainy season

Target 100 000 households with mixed cropping and farming inputs (e.g. cereal, pulses and vegetable seeds, farming tools and fertilizer) for people returning to their areas of origin and those remaining in urban and peri-urban areas; a strategic and operational partnership will be developed with the World Food Programme (WFP) and other stakeholders for seed protection schemes with food rations or cash to reduce the risk of seed consumption

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Target 20 000 IDPs and returnee households, in particular women-headed households, with a pilot small ruminants restocking project, with cash for work activities related to small infrastructure rehabilitation, water and soil conservation and other alternative livelihoods activities.

Preparedness activities for possible large-scale interventions in the livestock sector - Procuring appropriate medical and veterinary supplies to target 80 000 IDP, returnee and host

community households to protect about 700 000 small ruminants - Support to private and public veterinary services to prepare for the redeployment of veterinary

services in the accessible areas in 2017 - Support the provision of 3 000 tonnes of animal feed to cover the needs of about five small

ruminants per household for three months during the lean season

Preparedness activities for improving tenure security and conflict resolution - Based on the initial fact-finding mission, test modalities to facilitate land access for returnees

through dialogue and negotiations - In collaboration with national research institutions on land rights and land use, explore

modalities for managing land conflicts, reflecting on comparative experiences by FAO in other countries.

Strengthened capacity for food security coordination, analysis and information management

Food security sector coordination is essential to enhance the quality of the response, avoid duplication and limit the risks of gaps, especially in consideration of such a complex agro-ecological and political situation with a high level of fluidity and versatility, the rapidly growing number of international actors and the important role played by the national institutions at federal and state levels. Strong sector coordination, co-led by the Government, FAO and WFP is already established. In addition, food security analysis for evidence-based decisions (e.g. using Cadre Harmonisé, seed security assessments) and information management are key to the food security, nutrition and agricultural recovery of northeast Nigeria.

Implementation

Based on increased corporate support, FAO is continuing its efforts to properly staff and equip its teams both at federal level and in the affected areas. Support and technical backstopping are being provided at regional and headquarters levels.

FAO has been active in northeast Nigeria since 2013 and gained significant experience in emergency food security programmes in the conflict-affected area. Teams in all affected states are being strengthened and an FAO field office is now operational in Maiduguri, Borno State, contributing to scaled up capacity in the northeast of the country.

Flexibility will be very important in the implementation of this Action Plan given the volatile and unpredictable context. Therefore, a multi-scenario planning exercise was undertaken in consultation with national institutions and humanitarian agencies to identify different possible courses of events in the coming nine months. On this basis, an “agile” programming framework for the emergency response has been designed.

Depending on the type of assistance and the targeted area, the proper combination of in-kind supply, voucher and cash options will be identified, complemented by needs-based training. FAO will be responsible for the overall management of the procurement process.

Implementation will be supported by an effective monitoring and evaluation system as well as a strong rolling and scenario-based risk analysis to facilitate risk management and adaptation of the programme.

The implementation of the Action Plan will be through partnership with: national, state and local-level institutions, civil society and national and international NGOs and the private sector.

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Activity calendar

To ensure the smooth implementation of the Action Plan, activities should follow the below work plan.

FAO Nigeria Action Plan budget

The next step: planning for strengthened recovery and resilience

This nine-month Action Plan is in line with the 2016 revised Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Nigeria. The next HRP should be based on multi-year planning (2017–19) in order to successfully support IDPs, returnees, host and resident communities. It is important to already start planning for the next step, beyond emergency response and aiming at strengthened recovery and resilience.

As the crisis is de facto a regional crisis, a resilience planning mission will be fielded in the four countries of the Lake Chad area, namely Cameroon, Chad, the Niger and Nigeria, focusing on:

The socio-economics and agro-ecological issues that shape this particular area;

The key factors around sharing common resources and the politico-military crisis that is having a strong impact on livelihoods and natural resource management of inhabitants in the neighbouring areas of the four concerned countries; and

The critical coordination at regional level under the auspices of the Lake Chad Basin Commission.

Campaign Description 2016 2017

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Fundraising activities

Dry season 2016–17

Zone selection

Beneficiary identification

Procurement

Distribution

Monitoring and evaluation

Main season 2017

Procurement

Zone selection

Beneficiary identification

Distribution

Monitoring and evaluation

Coordination

Technical support

Campaign Description Target beneficiary households

Estimated budget

Dry season 2016–17

Support to mixed cropping with vegetables and farming inputs

48 000 6 624 000

Support to livestock (animal health and feeding) 80 000 3 200 000

Main season 2017

Nutrition-sensitive agriculture through mixed cropping of cereals, pulses and vegetables and farming inputs

100 000 9 000 000

Alternative livelihoods, including restocking, aquaculture, markets rehabilitation, cash-for-work, etc.

20 000 6 180 000

Total 25 004 000

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Nine-month Action Plan for northeast Nigeria

1. Situation and needs assessment

1.1 A complex socio economic and agro-ecological setting

The northeast region of Nigeria comprises several livelihood zones providing food to a large territory with

several urban centres. These zones include: the Lake Chad shores and open water (with large and fertile

areas for dry-season grazing and flood recession cultivation); a large Sahel belt with livestock and dryland

cereal production (Sahel savanna); a secondary more humid belt with cereal, cassava and sesame (Sudan

savanna); and one large much more productive area where many food and cash crops grow easily

(northern and southern Guinea savannas). Between these different zones and neighbouring countries,

trade has always been very active and allowed the development of trading hubs such as Maiduguri. In

northeast Nigeria, an estimated 80–90 percent of the population depend on agriculture, fisheries and

livestock for their livelihoods and food security.

Figure: Northeast Nigeria Livelihood Zones Map*

*Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)

All planned activities must be well aligned with the existing crop calendars of the northern Nigeria states,

focusing on the upcoming dry season and the need to prepare early for the 2017 rainy season.

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1.2 The conflict and its consequences

In northeast Nigeria, local politics, demographic pressure and environmental changes have undermined

social contracts established between ethnic groups to manage natural resources, especially around Lake

Chad, and facilitate cohabitation between pastoral groups and farming communities.

The region has long been marginalized in terms of development policies, which has opened the door for a

conflict targeting not only national administrative and military institutions, but also the civilian population.

The cross-border nature of the conflict has led to a regional military and political response involving

Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon, with whom Nigeria shares resources such as Lake Chad and challenges

like the effects of climate change. The last three years of conflict have transformed a rural area that,

despite being largely marginalized in terms of development strategy, was dynamic and populated into a

zone of considerable suffering, significant displacement, high food insecurity and worrying levels of

malnutrition.

Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in camps and host communities

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The conflict has cost northeast

Nigeria’s agriculture sector an

estimated USD 3.7 billion1 due to

livestock losses; destruction of

irrigation and farming facilities;

collapse of extension services, market

and trade facilities; and reduced

production due to access limitations.

Looting and fear of attacks have

prevented many farmers from

working in their fields, leading to the

loss of harvests and productive

assets, and extremely reduced

purchasing power.

Access to the areas beyond the most

protected perimeters has been

difficult and aid agencies involved in

food security and support to the

agriculture sector have been

significantly constrained in their

access to rural areas. In addition, the

drop in oil prices and destruction of

oil pipelines in the Delta have

considerably reduced federal revenue

and its capacity to support the

economy, in particular in the north.

Following the Cadre Harmonisé2 food security analysis of March 2016, a joint food security alert was issued

in July 2016 by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), FEWS NET,

the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

CILSS and its partners (the Government of Nigeria, FAO, WFP and FEWS NET) then undertook a joint rapid

assessment in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States and updated the Cadre Harmonisé analysis in

August 2016. The report3 underlined both the deteriorating food security situation and the diverse

situations on the ground in relation to access, duration of the presence of Boko Haram, dynamics of

displacement, etc.

1 World Bank and Buhari PLan 2 CILSS developed a methodology for the analysis and identification of areas at risk and vulnerable groups in the Sahel called Cadre Harmonisé. The framework is based on different methodologies used by actors involved in food security analysis, with the aim of informing decision-makers and guiding action and response within the region by classifying the current and projected food security and vulnerability situation on a standard scale across the region. 3 http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/emergencies/docs/Fiche-Nigeria%20aout2016%20ver3_ASG.pdf

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Mapping of food security classification in the three northeast states

Population in need

The situation continues to evolve with new areas progressively accessible. In these areas, the humanitarian

situation is reported to be extremely serious after three years of missed harvests and seed security is at a

minimum. Improved security has encouraged some farmers to return to their fields for the first time in two

to three years. Host communities, where possible, are providing IDPs with access to land. However, the lack

of agricultural inputs represents a major constraint for many farmers. Without support, they will continue to

rely on prolonged and expensive humanitarian assistance to meet their food needs in the coming months.

The wider negative impact includes the lack of economic and employment opportunities with possible

States Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Total Phase 3 à 5

Adamawa 1 697 300 1 868 200 591 200 38 000 - 629 200

Borno 675 700 1 672 400 2 219 000 886 200 58 500 3 163 700

Yobe 1 544 900 1 074 900 534 900 113 700 6 500 655 100

Total 3 917 900 4 615 500 3 345 100 1 037 900 65 000 4 448 000

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harmful consequences, including youth radicalization and enrolment in armed groups, resulting in continued

civil unrest. This changing situation offers windows of opportunities that cannot be missed.

FAO is thus preparing to carry out a seeds assessment for the three northeastern states in partnership with

FEWS NET and other stakeholders (state institutions and Non-governmental Organizations [NGOs]). Given

the region’s complex agro-ecosystems and the duration of the crisis, it is important to assess the level of seed

security (what is still available in terms of seeds in farmers’ granaries) and potential sources of seeds of similar

characteristics in neighbouring and less-affected regions and states of Nigeria. This will involve strong

collaboration with Nigerian institutions in charge of agriculture and seed production, in addition to

coordination with the Borno State Maiduguri-based agricultural administration. On the side of the

Government, several strategic action plans have been prepared and are synthesized in the Buhari Plan

“Rebuilding the Northeast”, which represents a significant national effort.FAO has already mobilized

significant resources through its own internal funding system (Technical Cooperation Programme projects

and allocations from the Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation Activities), as well as with the

support of several donors (the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, the European

Commission’s Directorate-General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection and the Governments of

Belgium, Ireland and Japan). This has enabled FAO to distribute seeds and fertilizers in accessible area of

Borno, Adamawa and Yobe and helped FAO to develop strong relationships with agricultural institutions

at the federal and state levels, which will prove critical for the implementation of the Action Plan.

1.3 Scenarios and consequences for FAO programming

As the situation remains unpredictable, the nine-month Action Plan has been designed with a flexible

operational framework. A planning exercise was undertaken, using best practices in multi-scenario

planning – underlining the unpredictability of the situation (we cannot define what a “most probable

scenario” could be), the multiplicity of possible events and facilitating the identification of different

options for the coming nine months. Several key parameters have been identified that could determine

the evolution of the situation, as outlined below.

Level Parameters

Internal to the northeast states

Activities of Boko Haram Climatic patterns in the region (drought, floods) and their impact on food security Dynamics of population displacements Land access and land tenure issues Result of the military and security campaign Behaviours of military and Civil Defence Forces/vigilantes Internal conflict in Boko Haram

Internal to Nigeria

Impact of oil price decreases and security evolution in the Delta region Political development in the Biafra area National food production (taking into account possible floods) and its impact on food prices Devaluation of the Niara and impact of the exchange rate fluctuations

Regional (analytical level: the Lake Chad Basin [LCBC] Commission)

Management of borders Events in neighbouring countries Level of military cooperation between the LCBC countries Level of international military support they get

Global

Evolution of oil prices in the global market Evolution of cereal and food prices in the global market Global dynamics in the Jihadist sphere, especially the links with North Mali and Somalia’s Al-Shebab, as well as the situation in Libya

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The analysis led to the identification of a series of possible scenarios, as presented below:

Scenarios Description

The optimistic scenario

The efforts to regain territory and ensure security pay off and more areas become accessible. The Nigerian Army and Civil Defence Groups avoid large-scale human rights abuses. A certain level of confidence is slowly established, with a progressive return of the population to their areas of origin in Borno and Yobe, while large IDP populations who fled in Yobe and Adamawa are also returning. This will remain limited during the first part of the 2016–17 dry season and might accelerate from January to April 2017 as pe ople don’t want to miss another rainy season. Unexploded ordinance (UXO) contamination turns out to be limited. The Government manages to redeploy at least a certain level of civil administration. Many IDPs might decide however to remain in the urban centres and develop new livelihoods there. Fishing activities and trade resumes actively, bringing good livelihood opportunities to a large segment of the population. Globally, agriculture activities and trade (allowing the area to benefit from the good production in the rest of the country) resume rather actively and significantly contribute to the improvement of the humanitarian situation.

The second best scenario

Stabilization of large areas is ensured, but insecurity remains an issue. Movements back and forth to the villages take place on a large scale, but people are still hesitating to resettle in their areas of origin. The states of Adamawa, the extreme south of Borno and Yobe reach some acceptable stabilization levels allowing activities to resume and civilian government institutions to be progressively redeployed in some areas. The Lake Chad area, the western part of Borno and some large forested areas south of Maiduguri remain much more problematic. The real level of UXO contamination remain unknown but the perception of the issue affects the desire to go back to the villages of origin. There is no sign that the internal strife within Boko Haram is leading to a risk of resumption of large-scale military or terrorist intervention. The level of trade from the southern states of Nigeria is on the rise, facilitating price decreases and better access to food for the population.

The limited improvement scenario

Efforts to secure the areas pay off but not sufficiently to allow for a massive return to areas of origin. In addition, the evolution of oil prices and impact of the Niara devaluation seriously affect the State’s capacity to properly pay officials and invest in basic services. Main routes and recaptured settlements are secured but no further progress is made deep into the countryside. Markets resume functioning in the main cities, but not in rural areas. Agriculture resumes in a 20 to 30 km radius around Maiduguri but not much further away. Internal strife within Boko Haram raises issues about the evolution of the strategy of the actors of violence. The real level of UXO contamination remains unknown but the perception of the issue affects the desire to go back to the villages. The humanitarian system has to address many new displacements from the areas where stabilization efforts are taking place to cities and areas of existing IDP concentration. Cereal production does not resume at large scale, while trade with the southern part of the country does not function sufficiently well to significantly reduce food prices.

The degraded scenario

Internal fighting in Boko Haram leads to higher levels of military activities. Attacks resume regularly with suicide bombing and security incidents increase in number and gravity, which leads to the reduction of the humanitarian community presence in Maiduguri. As people have completely eroded their asset base, they start to move further south to Gombe, Adamawa and even further. Cities are further cut off from their supply and trade routes, leading to new price increases, which come as an additional negative element to the political and economic crisis affecting the whole country (oil price decrease, pipeline sabotage in the South, re-activation of the tensions in Biafra). The rainy season turns out to be below average, limiting even further the impact of the small-scale agricultural activities undertaken in 2016. This, compounded with the result of the difficult situation worldwide (cereal prices in the international market remain high), drastically limits the capacity of both the Government and aid agencies to supply sufficient food and livelihood assistance.

The worst case scenario

In the internal strife within Boko Haram, the most radical group takes over, with a clear alliance with “global Jihad”. This leads to the resumption of large-scale military operations and the multiplication of terrorist attacks and suicide bombings. The Nigerian Army is confronted on multiple fronts with the resumption of the crisis in Biafra and the surge in the insurrection in the Delta States. Multiple population displacements take place while humanitarian access is limited to a minimum and eventually aid agencies in Maiduguri have to be evacuated. The International Task Force does not manage to get the situation under control and there is a significant spillover effect on neighbouring countries.

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Given the severity of and the urgent need to address the deteriorating food security situation and the

windows of opportunity offered by the opening of new areas, FAO has declared increased corporate

support for Nigeria and mobilized accordingly. FAO capacity is being strengthened and internal resources

have been mobilized to scale-up the response and support coordination efforts.

Although FAO has been involved in emergency agriculture operations in the north of Nigeria since 2013,

operating largely from Abuja, the Organization further scaled up its response, opening an office in

Maiduguri and deploying staff and missions to develop an Action Plan for the period September 2016 to

May 2017. Due to persistent Boko Haram activities in the concerned area, and based on the multi-scenario

analysis presented above, FAO will pay due attention to the principle of “Do no harm” and seek to ensure

the safety and security of beneficiaries targeted by the activities. Additionally, conflict prevention and the

peace building approach, in particular in relation to land rights, will be critical elements in the

implementation of the Action Plan.

In designing the Action Plan, FAO has drawn on the Organization’s technical competence and relationships

with national actors involved in agriculture and livestock production to ensure that is area specific, adapted

to the variety of agro-ecosystems of the concerned regions, and can be implemented in a timely manner as

soon as sufficient resources are made available.

2. Nine-month Action Plan

Given that a considerable part of the rural economy of Nigeria’s northeastern states and its relationship

with the urban sector has been dramatically affected by the conflict, a strong intervention in this sector

is required. The absence of decisive engagement in the rural sector is likely to have serious negative

repercussions on the socio-economic and nutrition situation of the population, as well as potentially

severe political and military consequences. Therefore, FAO is determined to rapidly increase livelihood

support for rural households, urban and peri-urban IDPs and host communities and to be fully prepared

for the 2017 rainy season.

2.1 Key assumptions

The focus will be on nutrition-sensitive agricultural activities and initial steps to recapitalize rural

households affected by the crisis. Special attention will be paid to IDPs remaining in cities and camps and

to the newly accessible areas and areas with observable IDP returns. In addition, as there will be huge

needs for seed supply interventions, other key partners will implement seed programmes and excellent

coordination will be required between these actors.

The scale of needs is massive and no single programme can respond to all (either qualitatively or

quantitatively). The FAO nine-month Action Plan aims to respond to specific needs to improve the food

security of approximately 248 000 households. The goal is to reach an estimated 2 million people,

representing 45 percent of the population in Cadre Harmonisé Phases 3 to 5 in the three northern states.

As well as supporting the returns process, the Action Plan will include direct or indirect support to the local

economic integration of households who may decide not to return home for the foreseeable future. In

addition, the Plan will explore possible modalities to improve land tenure security for IDPs and host

communities, as well as to deal with conflicts between pastoralists and local farmers.

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The situation in the livestock and fishery sectors is particularly complex and needs to be better understood.

The patterns of livestock movement are peculiar in this area where large south–north bovine movements take

place during the dry season to optimize the use of the Lake Chad grazing lands. In addition, the Boko Haram

insurgency significantly disturbed pastoral patterns and most IDPs have lost their small livestock as they fled.

It is unlikely that restocking can take place on a large scale in the coming months, as it is difficult to launch

restocking projects when entering the dry season and fodder becomes scarce. Some small pilot activities can

however take place to explore the feasibility of the activity. Given that the disruption of the livestock economy

created conditions for the spread of diseases, it is important to increase the level of surveillance and prepare

technical services to be ready for veterinary interventions. Livestock interventions are likely to be much more

feasible during the second part of 2017, in favour of returning communities. Similarly, fisheries used to be an

important part of the economy of the area, largely based on fish intakes from Lake Chad and all submerged

areas linked to the network of its tributaries. While it will take time for this sector to recover, a feasibility study

and pilot projects on aquaculture should be carried out in the short term.

2.2 Programme design

For all scenarios:

IDPs with secure access to land, host community vulnerable households and returnees will be supported

in dry season activities starting in October/November, especially for vegetable production:

o support to vegetable-growing groups, especially women and youth groups, with the provision of

seeds, irrigation equipment, tools and other inputs, including technical advice. This could be

done through a combination of in-kind distributions and cash transfers through existing rural

micro-finance institutions and banks; and

o specific technical support to ensure that vegetable production induces both a positive nutritional

impact and some income for the population.

Specific attention will be paid to urban IDPs and some host families with limited access to land: the

experiences gathered by FAO in similar emergency contexts and by the Food for the Cities network

indicate that there are many opportunities to be seized in a situation such as the one in northeast

Nigeria. This will imply:

o provision of specific technical inputs (bags and wood beams for vertical agriculture4);

o specific technical advice on urban agriculture; and

o support to the negotiation with municipal authorities, if and when required.

FAO is preparing to target IDPs and vulnerable host community households with horticulture packages,

comprising seeds, fertilizers (with as much as possible organic fertilizers), small equipment to set up

micro-gardening systems and irrigation equipment.

Rapid rehabilitation of agricultural markets in cities or along the main trading roads in the newly

accessible areas can be undertaken as a means to support rapid recapitalization of agricultural systems

and access to essential cash for IDPs. This means:

o provision of light building material to set up light market infrastructure; and

4 http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Other/Manuals/FBG_Manual.pdf

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o use of cash-for-work to create or rehabilitate market infrastructure. This can be done by offering

short-term employment for youth from IDP and host, resident and returning communities.

2.2.1 The 2016–2017 dry season

Target 48 000 IDP and host communities’ households in northeast Nigeria with vegetable kits

(comprising seeds, irrigation tools and equipment, material for vertical urban agriculture, etc.). The

expected impact includes improved nutritional and economic status as well as access to new but

simple technologies and agricultural practices for urban agriculture:

o seed kits and support to small-scale irrigation for peri-urban IDPs in camps and villages in

the vicinity of the urban centres;

o seed kits and equipment for the establishment of urban micro-gardening systems (vertical

and bag agriculture, etc.); and

o seed kits for returnees and host communities in recently liberated Local Government Areas

(LGAs).

Preparedness for possible large-scale interventions in the livestock sector. On the basis of the

situation assessment in late 2016 and early 2017, the following activities will be undertaken:

o procuring appropriate medical and veterinary supplies to target 80 000 IDP, returnee and

host community households to protect the equivalent of 700 000 small ruminants;

o support to the private and public veterinary services to prepare for the redeployment of

veterinary services in the accessible areas in 2017; and

o provision of 3 000 tonnes of animal feed to cover three months needs of the equivalent of

five small ruminants per household during the lean season.

Small-scale rehabilitation of market facilities through cash- or food-for-work programmes and

provision of equipment and material, especially in areas where people start moving back.

All activities will be accompanied by training based on needs.

Fact-finding exploratory mission on land-related problems (tenure security linked to

use/management and local conflict drivers).

2.2.2 Preparing for the 2017 rainy season

This component was designed so that it can be readjusted in terms of geographical focus depending on

the prevailing scenario when approaching the period March–April 2017.

Target 100 000 households with mixed cropping and farming supplies in terms of cereals seeds (millet,

sorghum, maize), pulse seeds (cowpea) and vegetable seeds (okra, rosell, sorell) with farming tools

and fertilizer for people returning to their areas of origin and those who have decided to remain in

urban and peri-urban areas. In the few areas where people are retuning and where there is still a

resident community (people who did not leave their area despite the presence of Boko Haram) and

areas where host communities are food insecure (Phases 3 to 5), the intervention will target resident

community households. The intervention is expected to result in the production of 125 000 tonnes of

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cereals. A strategic and operational partnership will be developed with WFP and other stakeholders

for seed protection schemes with food rations or cash to reduce the risk of seed consumption.

Target 20 000 IDP and returnee households, in particular women-headed households, with a pilot

restocking project with small ruminants5, with cash-for-work activities related to rehabilitation of

small infrastructure (i.e. markets), water and soil conservation and other alternative livelihoods

activities.

Preparedness activities for improving tenure security and conflict resolution:

o based on an initial fact-finding mission, test modalities to facilitate land access for returnees

through dialogue and negotiations; and

o in collaboration with national research institutions on land rights and land use, explore

modalities for managing land conflicts based on comparative experiences under

implementation by FAO in other countries6.

Depending on the real course of events at the end of 2016 and during the first part of 2017 (using the multi-

scenario grid as a planning framework), agricultural interventions can be redirected from one area to another

depending on security considerations, return dynamics and other parameters. Additional assessments will

also be organized in the livestock and fisheries sectors to determine the best way to support recovery.

For example, the activities will focus mainly on Yobe and Borno States in scenarios 1 and 2, with a fall-back in

Adamawa and Gombe in case the situation does not evolve positively (scenarios 3, 4 and 5). This will imply

very active networking with seed producers and agricultural administrations in areas less affected by the

conflict in order to source sufficient quantities of seeds and planting material of the required types.

Pre-harvest contracts may have to be signed with seed producers and seed production centres in order to

proactively set aside cereal and pulse seeds to be distributed early in 2017 for the main agricultural campaign.

2.3 Implementation arrangements

The Action Plan will be implemented through partnerships with:

national institutions at state and LGA levels;

civil society organisations (farmers’ organizations, women’s groups, faith-based organizations,

etc.);

national and international NGOs;

contracted private actors (traders, telecom, credit and saving institutions, etc.); and

micro-finance institutions and rural banks.

These different activities will be supported by ad hoc training (urban agricultural, micro-gardening,

aquaculture, poultry and small ruminant rearing, etc.) on a needs basis.

5 Large- and medium-sized ruminant restocking is not advisable when there is an access crisis to animal feed. The distributed livestock risks being sold or consumed. However, on a small scale, some limited restocking activities can take place. Any activity will take due consideration of possible threats represented by avian flu and other animal diseases. 6 People in Post Displacement – Reintegration, FAO Land and Water Division working paper 7 http://www.fao.org/3/a-mj732e.pdf

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Depending on the type of assistance and the targeted area, the most appropriate combination of in-kind,

voucher and cash options will be identified. FAO will be responsible for the overall management of the

procurement process.

In addition, the implementation of the programme will be supported by an effective monitoring and

evaluation system as well as a strong rolling and scenario-based risk analysis to facilitate risk management

and adaptation of the programme.

2.4 Activity calendar

In order to ensure that agricultural inputs are in the hands of their users on time, the following activity

calendar has been developed:

2.5 Risk analysis and mitigation measures

Operating in Nigeria in general and in the northeast states in particular is not without risk, as described in

the different scenarios identified. Systematic engagement with the United Nations Office for the

Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Logistics Cluster (on access roads) and the United

Nations Department of Safety and Security, as well as the regular use of different sources of information

will ensure an updated view of the situation and enable FAO to adjust the programmatic parameters of

the Action Plan accordingly.

As transactions in Nigeria can be complicated, FAO will manage this risk based on best practices and

established United Nations (UN) procedures.

2.6 The use of the scenarios in the operations

The scenarios described in this document will guide the decision-making process on how, where and when

to allocate resources. Some of the features indicating which scenario is underway might be already

observable; others might come to light quite late in the process, requiring last-minute reorientation. The

following table underlines the possible technical choices to be made depending on the scenario.

Campaign Description 2016 2017

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Fundraising activities

Dry season 2016–17

Zone selection

Beneficiary identification

Procurement

Distribution

Monitoring and evaluation

Main season 2017

Procurement

Zone selection

Beneficiary identification

Distribution

Monitoring and evaluation

Coordination

Technical support

Scenarios Actions to be implemented

The optimist scenario:

Preparation and implementation of a dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, livestock and fisheries production (including income-generating activities in agro-processing);

Accelerated deployment of FAO and its partners in areas of return for need assessments and strong linkage with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to ensure proper monitoring of the returns;

Development of a strategy with national partners (SEMA, NEMA, ministries, civil society) for agricultural, livestock and fisheries rehabilitation in the newly accessible areas;

Active preparation for large-scale intervention in agricultural input distribution, livestock and fisheries interventions through all possible means in order to recapitalize rural households and facilitate their recovery;

Feasibility study to identify means to facilitate the integration of IDPs that decide not to return to their areas of origin. Urban farming, agro-processing and other livelihood options have to be identified and tested;

Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption; Strengthening of the food security and livelihood coordination mechanisms at the Federal, State and LGA levels.

The second best scenario:

Preparation and implementation of a dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, livestock and fisheries production; Accelerated deployment of FAO and its partners in areas of return for need assessments; and strong linkage with IOM to ensure proper monitoring of the returns; Development of a strategy with national partners (SEMA, NEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of the programmes in both urban and peri-urban

areas to facilitate the insertion of IDPs that decide not to return to their areas of origin. Urban farming, agro-processing and other livelihood options have to be identified and tested;

Develop a strategy for the areas still hard to reach, to ensure a certain availability of agro-inputs in these areas; Active preparation for large-scale interventions in agricultural inputs distribution through all possible means in order to recapitalize rural households and facilitate

their recovery. Priority is likely to be given to the LGA located in the southern parts of Borno, Yobe and to Adamawa States; Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption; Strengthening of food security and livelihood coordination mechanisms at Federal, State and LGA levels.

The limited improvement scenario:

Preparation and implementation of a enhanced dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, aquaculture and livestock production which can continue with adaptation during the rainy season;

Development of a strategy with national partners (municipal councils, SEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of the programmes aiming at facilitating the flow of agro-inputs to areas hard to reach;

Reinforce the collaboration with IOM for displacement tracking to ensure high level of readiness in case the situation further evolves; Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption;

The degraded scenario:

Increase the availability of seeds and other agro-inputs in Maiduguri so people can create some forms of livelihood; Development of a strategy with national partners (municipal councils, SEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of programmes in the new areas of

displacement (access to land and water to be negotiated rapidly) in order to stimulate the absorption capacity of the host communities and to help IDPs to rapidly develop some forms of livelihood);

The worst case scenario

FAO presence is reduced to a base minimum as most international staff and state and LGA administration are evacuated Activities are relocated to the accessible areas in the southern parts of the northeast region, where at least some basic access can be ensured.

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The geographical implications of these scenarios are presented below:

Budget

The following budget has been prepared for the Action Plan:

Effective food security coordination, analysis and information management

Sector coordination

Food security sector coordination is essential to enhance the quality of the response, avoid duplication

and limit the risks of gaps, especially given the complex agro-ecological and highly fluid political situations,

the rapidly growing number of international actors and the important role played by the national

institutions (federal and state levels). Strong sector coordination, co-led by the Government, FAO and WFP

is already established. In addition, food security analysis for evidence-based information (Cadre Harmonisé

and seed security assessment for instance) and information management are key to the food security,

nutrition and agricultural recovery of northeast Nigeria.

• As part of its responsibility as co-lead agency for food security sector coordination, FAO will contribute to:

o strengthening the coordination structure in place to ensure the most efficient coverage,

reduce gaps, avoid duplication and enhance the coherence of operations through the

development of partners activities’ mapping, facilitation of coordination meetings,

strengthening of information management; and

o capacity building for sector partners.

Support to coordination is provided through the deployment of a Sector Coordinator and an Information

Management Officer and the provision of a national Assistant Cluster Coordinator.

As there will be very significant seed needs in a least three of the possible scenarios, it is suggested

to establish a seeds supply coordination Task Force as a sub-group of the Food security sector, which

can focus more precisely on seeds supply programme/planning/operation, etc.

Under its mandate, FAO will ensure proper coordination with State and Federal agricultural institutions

such as Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock, and meteorological institutions. It will pay due attention

to the plans elaborated by the Government of Nigeria, in particular the Buhari Plan prepared under the

leadership of the office of the Deputy Prime Minister.

In addition, FAO regional coordination with other neighbouring countries (Lake Chad Basin – Niger,

Campaign Description Target beneficiary households

Estimated budget

Dry season 2016–17

Support to mixed cropping with vegetables and farming inputs

48 000 6 624 000

Support to livestock (animal health and feeding) 80 000 3 200 000

Main season 2017

Nutrition-sensitive agriculture through mixed cropping of cereals, pulses and vegetables and farming inputs

100 000 9 000 000

Alternative livelihoods, including restocking, aquaculture, market rehabilitation, cash-for-work, etc.

20 000 6 180 000

Total 25 004 000

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Chad and Cameroon), will be critical as the crisis has a regional impact with common cross-border

issues (displacements, transhumance, etc.).

Inclusive, comprehensive and targeted food security analysis and information management

Food security information and analysis is an essential tool for managing crisis situations, as their seasonal and

conflict-related parameters are subject to many predictable and unpredictable changes that affect significantly

both the needs of the population and the operational environment where FAO and its partners operate.

FAO will continue supporting the regular production of updated evidence-based information for the

food security sector through its engagement in the Cadre Harmonisé process and other food security

and vulnerability analysis.

FAO will undertake and support partners in the organization of assessments in relevant technical areas:

food security and livelihood assessment (sector-led), land tenure assessment (with focus on areas with

high concentration of IDPs and returnees’ areas, FAO-led), livestock assessment with a focus on

pastoralists and the use and status of transhumance routes (FAO-led).

FAO will coordinate and collaborate with all other initiatives aimed at monitoring the evolution of the

situation, including the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix and OCHA constant surveillance data about

changes in the context.

FAO will collaborate and coordinate with national institutions in charge of agriculture in all concerned

states and at the federal level.

FAO will support lessons learning and exchange of experience among partners through after action

reviews, documentation, evaluations and sharing of good practices.

Strengthening FAO’s capacity in Nigeria

A scaling up of FAO operations and strengthening of presence in northeast Nigeria and in Maiduguri in

particular started in June. Given the deteriorating food security situation in northeast Nigeria, FAO declared

a corporate surge response on 21 July 2016. The new sub-office in Maiduguri is currently staffed with six

people, including a senior Emergency Response Manager, an international Operations Officer, an Emergency

Programme Officer, a national Administrative and Finance Assistant and other support staff. Further efforts

are being made to fill, as soon as possible, additional technical positions (agricultural, livestock and fisheries

experts), a Monitoring and Evaluation Officer and a Communication Officer, with a view to having a team of

12 people. Hence, FAO has built sufficient technical and operational capacity to implement this Action Plan.

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Next steps: Strengthening the resilience of crisis-affected communities

Linking emergency to recovery and resilience

In line with the Humanitarian Programme Cycle 2017 in Nigeria, which will move towards a multi-year

planning exercise, FAO is developing its own medium-term plan.

Building on the emergency programme and the nine-month plan, a resilience approach will be designed

with the goal of strengthening resilience of affected communities and linking Nigeria, Chad, Niger and

Cameroon in a coordinated regional approach to enhance resilience. The regional approach will be based

on their shared resource (Lake Chad), a short-term common burden (the Boko Haram insurgency), and a

long-term problem (climate change). As stated in several in-depth studies of the regional agro-ecosystems,

the resilience of this area was largely linked to its “3 M” strategy – mobility, multi-activity, multipurpose

land use under the LCBC. FAO’s approach will support the “3 M” system that characterizes large part of

the existing agro-ecosystems in northeast Nigeria and beyond. FAO will focus its intervention in the three

areas of Yobe, Adamawa and Borno on support to sustainable and peaceful access and use of natural and

economic resources, as well as on conflict mitigation mechanisms (based on already tested approaches

based on dialogue and negotiation). FAO will contribute to the resilience of the population of the region

through diverse approaches used alone or in combination: sustainable fisheries, Safe Access to Fuel and

Energy, job creation, development of caisses de résilience, support to food value chains, rehabilitation of

irrigation infrastructure, support to sustainable water management, livestock intervention including

rehabilitation of transhumance corridors, etc. FAO will target IDPs in host communities and informal camps,

youth and returnees with or without access to land and affected pastoralist and fishing communities, etc.

Specific mechanisms will be put in place to ensure that the most vulnerable IDPs can also benefit from these

programmes (through the establishment of solidarity groups, etc.).

Resilience strengthening needs its champions and these might not be exclusively among the poorest. Market

rehabilitation, support to specialized farmers able to produce seeds of adequate quality and private

veterinarians and paramedics will also be key ingredients of the programme.

Through community-based social protection mechanisms, such as the caisses de résilience and access to

credit, FAO will focus its action on vulnerable returnees (women- and youth-headed households). The

detailed approach and channels through which these objectives are going to be achieved will be defined in

a feasibility study.

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Support the development of a multi-stakeholder resilience agenda in the Lake Chad region

Resilience is the multidimensional outcome of multi-sectoral interventions often involving a large set of

agencies and donors. Coordination is thus critical and FAO will play its full role into this.

It is essential to fully liaise and coordinate with the plans of the federal and state governments,

including around the Buhari Plan “Rebuilding the North East”.

Coordination at the Lake Chad basin level is also critical and FAO Nigeria, together with the FAO

representations in other countries of the region, will duly liaise with the LCBC.

Large-scale development agencies and banks have demonstrated an interest in participating in

strengthening the resilience of the Lake Chad region. FAO will make all efforts to contribute to

this collective endeavour.

FAO intends to play a catalyst role in informing the collective response with a resilience-oriented

perspective by providing technical guidance especially on livelihood related approaches and

mechanisms and by promoting a synergic approach with other UN agencies and NGOs involved

in the response to the crisis.

Conflict prevention and peace building

The Boko Haram insurgency raises from a feeling of unfairness in the redistribution of national revenues

and inappropriate management of faith-based issues. This conflict is rooted in a long-term process of

discrediting state institutions and is linked to the absence or inefficient management of development aid

in the area, a rapid evolution of the demographic profile of the population around the Chad Lake and its

periphery and the growth of the influence of radicalism in contexts where there is a largely spread feeling

of abandonment. Although this is not a classic civil conflict based on ethnic drivers, the history and the

ethnical constitution of the area – with its specific social contracts in relation to natural resource

management – is such that ethnic issues could be used by as a catalyst if the roots of the current conflict

are not quickly and properly addressed.

From the onset of its intervention, FAO will introduce an approach to recreate a feeling of citizenship with

the redevelopment of relations between the population and the agricultural institutions. Through its

presence, FAO will advocate for northeast Nigeria to receive proper attention by national and federal

institutions, humanitarian and development agencies and donors. FAO will also facilitate the processes for

land access for IDPs and returnees through dialogue and negotiation.

The changing demographic patterns due to the conflict have significantly modified many social contracts

between rural communities and have created new cohabitation needs in the urban and peri-urban areas.

While relations between IDPs and host communities have been peacefully managed, there is always a risk,

if the situation prolongs, that hospitality in a resource scarce context will reach its limits. Several activities

will be designed and implemented to address this issue.

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Contacts

FAO Nigeria

Ms Louise Setshwaelo

FAO Representative, Abuja, Nigeria FAO-NG@fao.org Mr Tim Vaessen

FAO Emergency Response Manager, FAO Suboffice, Maiduguri, Nigeria Tim.Vaessen@fao.org

FAO Subregional Resilience Team for West Africa/Sahel (REOWA)

Mr Patrick David

Head of REOWA and FAO Representative in Senegal, ad interim Patrick.David@fao.org

FAO headquarters

Mr Dominique Burgeon

Resilience Coordinator and Director, Emergency and Rehabilitation Division TCE-Director@fao.org

www.fao.org/emergencies | www.fao.org/resilience

©FAO

, 2016

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