far ph d-seminar-dec02-2010
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CITE PhD Student research Seminar Presentation at the University of East LondonSpeaker: Amin Hosseinian FarTitle: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Modelling Systems’ Sustainability : A ReviewTRANSCRIPT
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Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Modeling Systems'
Sustainability: A Review
Amin Hosseinian-Far
Research Team:Prof. Hamid Jahankhani
Mr. Elias PimenidisProf. D. C. Wijeyesekera
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Contents
Introduction Sustainability & Sustainable
Development Sustainability Modeling Approaches Quantitative Modeling Conclusion Key References
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Introduction
- Bruntland introduced the Sustainable Development
- Focused on development- Harmony between ecological resources
and the needs assures sustainable trend- Politics (Governance) is the main driver- Three themes of sustainability were
introduced in the later notions: Economy, Society, Environment
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Sustainability & Sustainable Development- Sustainable Development is the term
introduced for the environmental sustainability
- Presently the term sustainability is used in different subject areas
- ‘Sustainability’ has a broader context where ‘Sustainable Development’ is still used for the environmental perspectives
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Sustainability & Sustainable DevelopmentThe application for sustainability can
be in the following areas:- Environment- Financial Systems- Organizational Sustainability- Civil Engineering- Infrastructures- Etc.
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Sustainability Modeling
-Steinmuller (1993) states that “a ‘model’ is information that has meaning, sender and receiver and tries to transmit a message”.
-Although there are various definitions for that
-There is a distinction between mapping and modeling; Mapping can be a part of modeling
-Different themes of sustainability can be modeled
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Approaches
Todorov & Marinova (2009) have classified all sustainability models into five main types:
- Pictorial Visualizations Models,- Quantitative Models,- Physical Models,- Conceptual Models,- and Standardizing Models.
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Pictorial Visualizations Models
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Physical Models
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Conceptual Models
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Standardizing Models
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Quantitative Modeling
Boulanger & Bréchet (2005) classify the quantitative sustainability models into:
- Macro-Econometric Models- Computable General Equilibrium Models- Optimization Models- System Dynamics Models- Multi-Agent Simulation Models- Probabilistic/Bayesian Networks Models
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Categories of Intelligent Systems
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Influence Diagrams
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Analytica
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Analytica-Influence DiagramsInfluence diagrams offer an intuitive
way to identify and display the essential elements, including decisions, uncertainties, and objectives, and how they influence each other.
It differs from decision trees, The influence diagram shows the dependencies among the variables more clearly than the decision tree.
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Conclusion
- The sustainability governance needs to have a clear view of the uncertainties.
- Sustainability of a system is an attribute of that system. It’s modeling is complex, and adaptive and includes uncertainties.
- The adjustments and impacts of the components of a system can be modeled using influence diagrams
- Analytica is a tool that can mock-up influence diagrams. It has a good user interface, is easy to learn and has been used by popular clients such as NASA, BG Group, Rexam, Green Decisions, etc.
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Key References
• Boulanger, P.-M., and Bréchet, T. (2005). Models for policy-making in sustainable development: The state ofthe art and perspectives for research, Ecological Economics, 55, 330–350.
• Brundtland, H. (1987). Our Common Futures. Development and International Economic Co-operation. Oslo: United Nations.
• Fiksel, J. (2006). Sustainability and resilience: toward a systems approach. Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy2(2):14–21. http://sspp.proquest.com/archives/vol2iss2/0608-028.fiksel.html
• Todotov, V.I. & Marinova, D. (2009). Models of Sustainability. MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia
• Valente, G. (2004). Artificial Intelligence methods in Operational Knowledge Management. University of Torino
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Thank you Questions?