farm focus · 30/06/2020 · • wheat planted area was down 0.405 million vs. the march report....
TRANSCRIPT
Today’s Prices
Grains: Price Change
Corn - July 2020 3.39 0.12
Corn - December 2020 3.51 0.16
Soybeans - July 2020 8.84 0.18
Soybeans - November 2020 8.82 0.21
KC Wheat - July 2020 4.36 0.07
Mpls Wheat - July 2020 5.09 0.12
Outside Markets: Price Change
Crude Oil - August 2020 39.37 (0.33)
Ethanol - July 2020 1.21 0.05
Gold - July 2020 1,791 16.00
U.S. Dollar Index 97.35 (0.16)
Dow Jones Industrials 25,623 28
Live Cattle - August 2020 96.28 (0.20)
Feeder Cattle - August 2020 132.85 (0.65)
Lean Hogs - August 2020 49.03 0.58
Grain Market News
• Grains prices were sharply higher on smaller than expected acreage.
• USDA shocked the trade with corn acres coming in at 92.006 million.
• Corn acres were 3.2 million below expectations and down 4.98 from March.
• Most expected that lower corn acres would be converted to larger bean acres.
• But the soybean acreage was up just 0.315 million vs. March intentions.
• Wheat planted area was down 0.405 million vs. the March report.
• The smaller acres likely a result of higher PP, more CRP and specialty crops.
• Quarterly Grain Stocks came in above trade expectations.
• Compared to expectations, corn stocks were 234 mb larger, bean stocks were
5 mb larger and wheat stocks were 65 mb larger.
• Lost demand due to the coronavirus likely resulted in the larger grain stocks.
U.S. Corn Crop Condition
U.S. Corn: Supply & Demand
U.S. Soybeans: Supply & Demand
U.S. Wheat: Supply & Demand
Grain Market News
• Corn and soybean crop conditions both improved by 1% vs. last week.
• Corn improved by 1% to 73% G/E vs. 72% last week.
• Soybeans improved by 1% to 71% G/E vs. 70% last week.
• Winter wheat held steady at 52% G/E.
• Spring wheat declined by 6%, from 75% down to 69% G/E.
• Current crop conditions and soil moisture are quite good.
• Forecasts indicate a warmer and drier trend developing later this week
• Some forecasts indicate that this trend could last through much of July.
• Current soil moisture should support good crops for at least a week or two.
• The concern would be if a longer-lasting warm/dry pattern would develop.
U.S. Corn Crop Condition
U.S. Soybean Crop Condition
High Temperatures: 6-29-20
24-Hour Observed Precipitation
30-Day Precipitation - % of Normal
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
Corn Chart
Soybean Chart
Wheat Chart
Grain Marketing RecommendationsCorn Beans Wheat
Current Position Current Position Current Position
2019 Crop:
2020 Crop:
97% of production sold.
40% of insured bushels sold.
2019 Crop:
2020 Crop:
95% of production sold.
50% of insured bushels sold.
2019 Crop:
2020 Crop:
100% of production sold.
50% of insured bushels sold.
Corn Sales Recommendations Bean Sales Recommendations Wheat Sales Recommendations
Sell 30% of 2020 insured bushels if CZ20 hits $4.10. None None
Options Recommendations Options Recommendations Options Recommendations
Long calls against 100% of previous sales. Long calls against 100% of previous sales. Long calls against 100% of previous sales.
