FARMER’SREPORTmarket trends | 12.13.2013

This notice is subject to change. Information printed is based on last received market data. Subject to change without notification.

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BeeF

Packers paid $132, steady with the week prior. Production levels came in at 629,000 head 12,000 head less than year prior.

roundsInsIdes: The expectation is for stronger markets going forward for most of December.

Flats: Prices are holding fairly stable and well balanced for the short term.

Peeled knuckles: A steady market, to up slightly for the next few weeks, is expected.

rIBsrIBeyes: The market has moved up on both choice and select rib cuts as we move into the heavy holiday demand time period. We will likely see this through the balance of the year.

chuckschuck rolls: The market has stabilized and will likely hold in this range for the next week or two.

clods: The market is consistent with chuck rolls.

loInsstrIPs: The market appears to have reached a bottom, and is continuing to move up each week. This cut is still an excellent alternative item to roast in place of a rib.

toP Butts: Overall, the projections are for a steady market on the choice cut. Traditionally this is the lowest point in the market and it has a tendency to move up in late December and the New Year.

Ball tIPs: The market appears to have stabilized, at least for the short term. A lot depends on the production levels for how this performs. This cut, as well as many of the thin cuts, are quickly affected and vulnerable to price increases as the production numbers move up and down.

tenderloIns: Choice as well as select /ungraded tenders are continuing to show increases that are typical for the balance of the year.

thIn meats & grIndsFlaP meat: The market is showing a little stability, however the downside moving forward should be minimal. The lower production numbers can affect this cut, as well as most thin cuts, simply due to the number of cattle it takes to make one box. It takes around 22 head of cattle to make one box.

BrIskets: The market will hold fairly steady at current levels, with normal slight up or downs on any given week. As we move into next month we could see some increases as corned beef processors start to take product in for Saint Patty`s day.

grInds: Following a few weeks of seasonal adjustments we are seeing a little more stability in the market for the next few weeks.

skIrt meat: OOutside skirts are still showing some choppiness, continuing the trend of up one week and down the next. We should still overall strength longer term as we get into and past late December.

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Pork

Base hog prices are running mixed this week on variable buying interest. Packers appear to have acquired their hogs for the week and may bid animals lower for the balance of this week. Slaughter numbers are running slightly below year ago levels but are trending higher week over week. This is expected to continue through year end.

Hog weights remain above year ago levels and have reached record highs. Hogs are running about 7 to 8 lbs heavier than last year. Packers expect this trend to continue through the end of this year. Please note that extreme cold temperatures could negatively impact hog weights as we move into the winter season.

Overall pork prices are trading steady to slightly higher this week supported by the ham, pork butt and belly primals. Prices for pork items are expected to begin gradually moving higher due to promotions for the December holiday season and new year.

loInsThe markets for bone in and boneless loins traded steady but are expected to move higher through late December due to increased holiday demand. Both bone-in loin and boneless loin prices are expected move higher through late December then trend slightly lower early/mid January.

tendersPork tenders traded slightly higher last week and early this week on improved demand. Prices are expected to trade steady to slightly higher through late December then trade steady through mid January. Retailers are expectedto feature tenders in December/early January promotions.

ButtsPrices for bone in and boneless pork butts moved higher last week on strong product demand for exports and December retail features. Pork butt prices are expected to gradually move higher during December on stronger demand. January prices are expected to trade steady.

rIBssPare rIBs: Spare Rib prices traded steady last week. Prices are expected to trade steady then gradually move higher as we approach 2014 and buyers begin moving product the freezer for the 2014 rib season.

Back rIBs: Back Ribs traded steady to slightly higher on improved demand. Prices are expected to continue trending higher as food service interest supports slightly higher price levels.

BellIes/BaconBacon /belly prices traded higher last week on strong product demand from processors. Belly prices are expected to gradually move higher through January 2014 as processors continue to freeze bellies for use during the Spring/Summer bacon season and foodservice operators add bacon to menu items..

hamsHam prices were steady last week and moving higher due to strong seasonal demand. Prices are expected to trade steady then gradually trend lower starting mid/late December through the end of 2013.

trImThe following market dynamics will impact finished goods pricing in January. Pork trimmings are trading steady to lower on increased supplies and weaker demand. Trimmings prices are expected to trade steady through December then begin moving higher during January 2014.

PIcnIcsPork Picnics traded steady last week on weaker demand. Picnics are expected to trade steady through late December then gradually move lower during January. Demand for exports could support higher prices.

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Industry participants are cautious and it’s not only because of the poor weather. Buyers are beginning to shift their positions and proceed cautiously while sellers are trying to stay ahead of any future storms. Tenderloins are being seen as an interest with increased pricing, while breast meat is on the verge of an upward swing to price as the industry gears up for the holiday demand. Whole birds and boneless thigh meat is reported quiet and remain steady from last week’s published price. Wings continue to be an interest to buyers as they start gearing up for the seasonal demand as football season comes to an end with the playoffs and super bowl.

Whole/cut uP chIckensMarket reported steady from previous week, market will continue to report steady money over the next few weeks.

Boneless Breast meatThe market is reporting steady, December markets are showing strength as demand will pickup in preparation for the Christmas and New Year holiday.

chIcken tenderloInsMarket reported an upward in price this week and all signs show that the tenderloin will continue to take traction with heavy demand and upward pricing. medIum WIngsInventories are finally balanced with poultry suppliers reporting steady money from the previous week. Look out for the mid part of December, as the demand will increase along with price as the football playoffs starts.

JumBo WIngsThe market is in good shape as the extra inventories have dried up and the market reported steady from previous week. Increased demand in December will drive the price upward with manageable inventories.

Boneless skInless thIgh meatMarket reported sideways this week. There are signs of a small downward adjustment to price in the back end of December, as consumer interest will be more to the chicken breast and chicken tenderloin.

Poultry

turkeyThe turkey market does not seem to be impacted by recent weather patterns. Fresh whole turkey deliveries for the Christmas are largely still at arm’s length and so far all is going reasonably well. Offerings on frozen turkeys are limited when sales take place. Breast meat continues to outpace whole turkeys in demand while supplies continue to be tight.

Whole turkeysWell balanced inventories are in place for the Christmas rush with the markets reporting steady to slightly down as we approach the holiday.

Boneless raW turkey BreastsHeavy demand continues as buyers gear up for the Christmas rush. Projections are that we will see a steady price thru the end of the year with upward pressure as we go into January.

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shrImP, domestIc (WhItes and BroWns)The Domestic Brown Headless shell on market was stable this week with some strengthening in the lower sizes (41/50-61/70). Conditions remain the same in regard to supply of brown shrimp. Whites continue to be short and will continue to demand premium price moving forward. The season will be wrapping up over the next few weeks.

PUD Markets continue to be very strong with another round of increases on all sizes. Supply concerns are increasing as anticipated replacement is falling well short of expectations. Suppliers are hand to mouth on key sizes like 71/90 and allocating when they do get some product. The supply of the key middle sizes (51/60-71/90) will be shortages throughout the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2014

shrImP, ImPorted (Black tIger and WhItes)The tiger market remains strong with limited inventories, especially on larger sizes. Where possible, conversions to Asian white shrimp are strongly recommended. Asian White shrimp is steady to for an improved demand. shrImP, latIn – central amerIca (WhItes)The Latin American headless shell-on white shrimp market was steady to strong this week with a good demand and a limited supply in the marketplace. Many of these sizes are price advantageous versus Asian white headless shrimp.

shrImP, mexIcan (WhItes & BroWns)Mexican WILD shrimp market is full steady this week with no changes in the market. Catches/production seems to be lagging versus projected landings.

scalloPs sea: Remain at all time record highs with no alleviation in sight. Supplies are limited and raw material prices are fully supported. Product of Canada continues to trade at record levels as well. Bay: No changes this week – market is steady.

tIlaPIaAs the harvesting season starts to wind down, 3/5 is the only size fish readily available for shipment at this time. As inventory levels become better known in the beginning of the 1st quarter in the build up to Lent, expect to see price increases, especially on 5/7 and 7/9. We strongly suggest TM’s get out in front of this anticipated shortage and convert customers to 3/5 size.

catFIsh, domestIc & ImPorted both the domestic and imported market are flat this week. Word out of China is that replacement costs are up as more of the product is either staying in the country or going to other countries like Brazil. This is still a great alternative versus Domestic frozen fillets.

strIPed PangasIus (also called sWaI or Basa)Prices remain flat this week but this is in direct contradiction to overseas replacement costs. Expect price increases on pangasius as we enter into the first quarter and Lent. The future supply situation continues to remain an issue as farmers face high interest rates, higher feed costs and less than break even prices. There have been fewer ponds reseeded this fall which will mean less supply 2nd quarter 2014. In addition, the U.S. government will have a another duty (tax) review in March.

salmonchIlean Farmed salmon: The market continues to move higher. Pricing for farm raised salmon continue to move closer to its wild caught cousin. Much of this is attributable to the poor harvest coming out of Norway, the world’s number one salmon exporter. In fact, to keep up with strong demand, many farmers have already harvested product that was scheduled to be caught in 2014. With Chile’s 2014 salmon production set to remain at 2013’s levels or possibly below, there could be a shortage of salmon forcing pricing to continue its upward path.

WhIteFIsh comPlex (cod, Pollock, haddock)cod: Atlantic raw material price has risen again as a result of less than ideal catches in the North Atlantic but this is not yet reflected in market prices. These higher raw material costs will be reflected in pricing for the first quarter 2014. Another issue pushing cod pricing is the lack of haddock supply and some larger accounts switching to cod.Pollock: Tthe market remains stable on both domestic and imported Pollock fillets.haddock: The haddock market was stable this week, although skinless and skin on are now at the same pricing levels – traditionally skinless would demand a premium in price. No alleviation in sight with the B season done, quota’s set for 2014 at same or slightly less levels and the coolers pretty much empty in China of raw material.

seaFood

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seaFood (cont’d)

tuna, yelloWFIn (co treated)After a year of declining prices, tuna may be the next species where price may be a factor. It has been a difficult year for tuna importers as higher than normal pricing and erratic imports forced many restaurants to remove tuna from their menus. The market appears to be settling with firming prices noted.

mahI mahIThe market remains steady this week but inventories vary widely depending on size. Current market levels still reflect the 2012 catch with very little of this year’s catch in the market place as of yet.

snoW craBcanada & alaska: The market is flat this week. kIng craBThe market is flat this week for a quiet demand in the run up to the holidays.

oysters This year’s typical peak in holiday-driven oyster demand has been met with historically low harvest levels from Louisiana according to industry participants. The region’s fishermen are reporting great prices for the oysters they have, but are worried about future harvests with little factual evidence available to justify what is causing this year’s bad take.

daIry

ButterMarkets are steady this week. Demand remains strong domestically and internationally. Global pricing continues to support strong prices for this time of year.

cheeseMarkets remain fairly firm for this time of year. Export and domestic demand continues to be high and current prices are competitive globally.

shell eggsMarkets are maintaining at record high levels. Supplies are beginning to balance with demand, but relief is not expected for a few more weeks.

commodIty grocery

oIlLast week’s USDA report was considered neutral for the soybean complex as it In the world markets, South American weather conditions and ten day forecasts remain mostly favorable as their soybean crops continue to progress with expectations for record production.

Domestically, the USDA released their December Supply/Demand report Tuesday Dec 10th and the soybean estimate of 2013-14 ending stocks for the U.S. were near expectations. Overall supply of soybeans is healthy, and we expect prices to stay the course and eventually soften.

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Potatoesrussets: Nationwide demands for russet potatoes has slowed down after the Thanksgiving holiday, but expect business to increase as we get closer to Christmas. We might see some spot increases on certain products, but we are seeing a steady market overall. Idaho is seeing extremely cold temperatures which are causing packaging facilities to run limited days. Idaho prices are steady across all sizes and trucks have higher freight rates due to the holiday season. Both Russet Norkotah and Russet Burbank varieties are being shipped in Idaho with good quality. Trucks will remain tight through the remainder of the year.

reds: Reds from North Dakota have good color and quality. The red potato demand has continued to slow down as the pipeline needs to clean up to gear up for the holiday frenzy. The market will remain steady.

WhIte and yelloW: The white potato market is very steady as all its activity continues to be centered in the Northeast. Anticipate a strong white market through the Christmas season. The inventory of yellow potatoes remains strong across the country in every major shipping area, but the pricing will be inching upward as availability decreases in the coming months. There is great availability of fingerling potatoes across the country, and the market is seeing excellent quality and very steady pricing.

Produce

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vegetaBlesleaF lettuceLeaf lettuce supplies are steady this week. There are some quality concerns on the outer leaves due to the cold overnight temperatures.

IceBerg lettuceSupplies and demand are steady this week. Due to ice and cold overnight temperature in some of the desert growing regions, harvesting was delayed. There are some quality concerns due to cooler temperatures. Shippers are expecting warmer temperatures toward the end of this week.

onIonsThe onion market this week has continued to stay consistent as demand has been consistent with supply. Demand for onions should be strong through the holidays. Due to cold temperatures, packaging sheds will not be running during that time, creating a possible shortage. There are far fewer onions available through this storage season than last year. With continued heavy exports, it is likely to be a strong year in the onion market.

Please keep in mind that all trailers, vans, reefers, and flat beds are expected to tighten up as Christmas trees have started to ship.

cucumBersIn the West, the market is strengthening. Demand has increased. Quality is good. In the East, the market is also showing signs of strengthening. There are reports of limited supply. Florida is harvesting; first, off-Shore Cucumbers are starting to arrive as well. Overall, quality is good. eggPlantThe market seems to be unstable. Cooler weather and possible rains may slow production. An uptick in price may occur by end of the week. Currently, there are no reports of quality issues. Florida is now producing good supplies.

tomatoesRounds: For the first time in a couple weeks the round tomato market saw some relief in Florida. As demand increased for roma tomatoes and more shippers yielded larger volumes on rounds, the market shifted downward slightly, especially on smaller fruit. While some Mexican shippers are producing two-layer product, the volume simply is not enough currently to take additional pressure off Floridian fruit. This drop in the market, then, could be short lived as more Western buyers seek product from Florida.

Grapes and Cherries: Grape tomatoes again experience weak market conditions this week as shippers come down from the high of Thanksgiving ads. Similarly, a plethora of cherry tomatoes fills the market, forcing shippers to sell product at deals in order to keep inventory moving. As Christmas time comes around, expect these markets to find more strength and increase in price by several dollars.

Romas: The Roma market is still very tight. Between the persistent cold weather between the United States and Mexico border, the production of tomatoes in Mexico struggles to find any sort of volume. This, in return, continues to delay the harvest of round and roma tomatoes out of this area. Consequently, Florida has become the main source of roma tomatoes for the entirety of the United States. This trend will keep the price of domestic fruit higher for the next week until high price points drive down demand and Mexico comes into better weather.

Both hothouse and on-the-vine varieties of tomatoes increased in price this week. Due to Canadian production winding down and Mexico still unable to find suitable growing conditions, supplies are light out of both areas. Conditions should improve by the end of next week, lowering market prices.

Produce

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Bell PePPersIn the West, the green bell market is steady on larger sizes. The market on reds continues to settle as well. Demand continues to exceed supply. No reports of quality issues. In the East, the market is now steady. Supplies on larger fruit are plentiful. Again, quality is improving, but continues to remain suspect as a result of rains. Expect markets to be weaker the next few weeks if weather remains good.

chIle PePPersThe market remains steady. Supplies out of both the northern and southern regions of Baja continue to be good. The market remains high, and active, on Pasillas, Red Fresno’s and Habaneros. Overall, quality is good.

squashSquash markets are slightly down this week as additional supplies become available in Florida. Supplies are somewhat limited due to cooler weather slowing production. There are some quality defects as result of cooler weather.

caBBageOverall, the market is steady. Both quality and supply is good.

BroccolISouth Carolina & California continue with moderate supply. There are concerns that Yuma cooler temperature will slow down maturity, but at this time, there are no damages being reported. Broccoli demand is steady this week but is expected to increase when holiday demand begins. Price has increased slightly compare to last week and is expected to continue if the weather doesn’t improve.

caulIFloWerSame as broccoli, the cooler temperature causes some maturity concerns and a slight price increase. Expect supplies to be light for the next 2 weeks. There are no quality concerns at this time, but if freezing temperatures continue the next few days, this might cause the cauliflowers to have a more of a creamy white than white heads.

carrotsThe market remains unchanged. The market is steady. Jumbo supplies are good. Quality remains average.

celeryOxnard celery supplies are good. There are some quality concerns due to cooler overnight temperatures. The celery market is expected to remain steady until holiday demand begins.

green onIonsThe green onion market continues to be steady. Mexico’s production continues to be good. Again, supplies are anticipated to be steady throughout the week. Quality is good.

asParagusMexico supplies are steady and quality is good. Imported asparagus supplies shortened up due to delay in flights. Pricing in December is expected to continue to climb with short supplies predicted for the holiday business.

Produce

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green BeansIn the West, the market is steady. Supplies crossing into Nogales have slowed as a result of cooler weather. However, some quality issues may exist with mature beans. Demand remains low. In the East, the market is steady. Supplies out of Florida are improving. Overall, quality is average; there may be occasional quality issues with dry tip rot and wind scar. Demand continues to be steady.

garlIcGarlic prices are inflated. Supplies continue to be limited. Containers are still being held up at ports. Uncertainty still exists around whether or not supplies will be released soon from ports. There are no reports of quality issues.

BerrIesstraWBerrIesThe recent Californian freeze has adversely affected the strawberry fields there. Harvesting has been curtailed, and volumes are down due to significant damage to large portions of the crops. Supplies of Mexican and Floridian strawberries, however, are steady as there are no instances of adverse weather to report out of those growing regions. December is already a difficult month for strawberries, and this is expected to only be magnified moving forward as the full extent of the California freeze is realized. For the time being, the strawberry markets are flat.

BlackBerrIesBlackberry production in Mexico has remained firm and steady, and is showing good volume. Favorable weather is forecasted for the near future, and strong blackberry shipments are expected to continue moving forward. As a result of these favorable conditions the blackberry markets are lower.

rasPBerrIesThe raspberry industry is starting to see tight volumes as this season’s harvest is winding down. The market is very short. Mexico is finishing peak volumes and the raspberry markets are higher.

BlueBerrIesThe market on blueberries is very tight on the West Coast, with good numbers being seen on the East Coast. Argentina’s import season has basically wrapped up, while Chilean imports are coming in consistently and showing good quality. Volumes are anticipated to continue their upward trend, and demand is expected to rise as well. The markets on blueberries are lower.

PearsWashington pear movement for last week was short when compared to the year prior, and total shipments to date this year are flat. Large sized fruit are more prevalent than small, and the quality on both Anjou’s and Bartlett’s has been outstanding. Total storage volumes for Anjou and Bartlett’s is up versus last season which should lead to solid volume and good values moving forward. The pear markets are flat.

graPesAs California grapes enter into the tail end of their season, grapes are continuing to struggle for full color (particularly on red seedless). Current varieties are Crimsons, Scarlet Royals, and Vintage. With the exception of Crimsons and few other proprietary varieties, harvest of red seedless has completed for the season. A split market is expected to continue based on color, size and quality. Over the next few weeks, watch for prices to start creeping up as supplies continue to decrease (particularly for good quality reds). Green seedless Autumn King’s are shipping, with sizing and quality reportedly excellent for this late in the season. Black Seedless Autumn Royals are primarily shipping, and quality seems to be mostly good for these remaining grapes. Red Globes are also currently available with good size, color and quality. California grapes are expected to continue shipping through the end of this month. Arrivals of Peruvian Red Globes, Flames, and Sugraones have started in a small way, and the first Chilean vessel is expected to hit the East Coast next week. The quality on Flames is medium with irregular sizing, Thompson’s have nice size and color, Sugraones are looking alright, and the grape markets are a little up.

Produce

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stone FruItThe first container of peaches is expected to hit Los Angeles, California late next week, with a larger shipment arriving before the start of next year. Keep in mind, reports suggest that up to 55% of all stone fruit acreage may have been adversely affected by the freeze that hit Chile a couple of months ago. Particularly hard hit were apricots, as nearly 80% of the crop may have been negatively affected. Plums also were hit hard with 60% of the acreage seeing issues. Approximately 60 million boxes may have been affected overall. The stone fruit markets are flat.

aPPlesFor the month of November, Washington apple shipments were down 12.1% versus the same time last year. This matches the pace for this season, as shipments to date have been soft when compared to last year. Larger apples are in more abundance than smaller ones, and the apple markets are flat.

troPIcalPIneaPPlesMexican pineapples are being harvested in the Veracruz growing region, and quality is reportedly excellent (with an average brix reading of over 13). Supplies are steadily increasing in preparation for the holiday pull, and pricing is expected to increase as demand picks up before the close of this year. Due to pre-harvesting Costa Rican pineapple volume is down, fruit conditions are good, and the pineapple markets are stable.

BananasSupply is a little short and volume is tight due to some scarring of Guatemalan fruit, with scattered chill damage. Demand is stable, and the banana markets are flat.

avocadosMexico remains the primary source of avocados for the U.S., with Chile having some limited participation. Recent harvesting issues out of Mexico have apparently been resolved, and the market is regaining movement after a couple of slow weeks. Fruit is showing good quality, and the flavor profile is reportedly excellent. Due to lower demand, the avocado markets are stagnant.

Produce

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cItrusorangesFreeze Alert: the last couple of nights the central valley has been hit with overnight temperatures dipping well below freezing. At this time the full extent of damage remains unknown, but growers are scrambling to save as much fruit as possible. Gauging the damage on the citrus crop will be an ongoing affair, and pricing is expected to be volatile as a result. Fancy grade oranges are expected to be more scarce than choice as growers are continuing to see prevalent wind scar. Orange sizing may be larger this year as well, peaking on an 88/72 count size. The orange markets are flat.

lemonsLemons of all shapes and sizes have limited availability, but volumes are picking up. Production is light out of the Coastal District, and sizing is trending small; while lemons out of the Central Valley District are peaking large. The Desert District is ramping up production, and fancy grade remain more numerous than choice. The lemon markets are stable.

lImesLimes are currently being imported from Eastern Mexico with good quality and a good green color. Current supplies are very good with excellent availability on all sizes. Demand should continue to be strong for the Christmas and New Year holidays, and weather conditions are forecasted to be favorable for the growing regions. The lime markets are steady.

graPeFruItMovement and pricing continue to be good for this season’s grapefruit, and recent harvesting has slowed due to rain. Fruit is trending smaller this year, and strong demand is expected to keep the markets fluctuating moving forward. The grapefruit markets are level.

Produce

melonscantalouPesDemand on cantaloupes continues to be light, but with fewer players in the game there is better inquiry and seemingly better demand. Most domestic supplies in Arizona and California have finished up, and a few cantaloupes are crossing at Nogales. Guatemalan melons are available to load in Florida and in Texas. Quality is reportedly good but showing green cast which is typical for this time of year. There is also a reported issue concerning shelf life, and the cantaloupe markets are flat.

honeydeWsLook for honeydews to be steady all week as demand is rather light. Shippers in both Texas and Arizona are looking for business and the markets are thought to be slowly regaining strength. Supplies are thought to start tapering off by the end of next week, and the honeydew markets are stable.

WatermelonWatermelon supplies are expected to lighten moving forward as there are fewer players who can supply the market. Colder weather across the country is expected to further decrease watermelon sales, and the market is expected to strengthen for the near future. The watermelon markets are up.