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FARNBOROUGH SOARS THE WORLD’S AEROSPACE INDUSTRY GOES ON DISPLAY AIRBUS RACES TO DELIVER REUSABLE LAUNCHERS DEFENCE MARKET TRENDS JULY 2016 www.aerosociety.com AEROSPACE July 2016 Volume 43 Number 7 Royal Aeronautical Society

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FARNBOROUGH SOARSTHE WORLD’S AEROSPACE INDUSTRYGOES ON DISPLAY

AIRBUS RACES TO DELIVER

REUSABLE LAUNCHERS

DEFENCE MARKET TRENDS

JULY 2016

www.aerosociety.com

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NEWS IN BRIEF

JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Contents

Comment

Buy British?

Regulars

Afterburner

Optimism rises in defence sectorLooking at the military and industrial defence outlook for the US and Europe.

RocketmenHow commercial space companies are shaking up the US space launcher market.

4 RadomeThe latest aviation and aeronautical intelligence, analysis and comment.

10 Antenna Howard Wheeldon considers the past and future of the Farnborough Air Show.

10 TransmissionYour letters, emails, tweets and feedback.

62 The Last WordKeith Hayward on the long-awaited Farnborough debut of the F-35 Lightning II.

46 Message from our President

47 Message from our Chief Executive

48 Book Reviews

50 Library Additions

52 Gala Banquet

54 RAeS History − Part 7

Expansion

56 Diary

57 RAeS Council 2016-17

58 Delivering the Dream

59 Corporate Partners

60 RAeS Elections

45

Features

Dash to deliverTim Robinson reports from this year’s Airbus Innovation Days meeting in Hamburg.

Evolution of the fi ttestSaab rolls out the latest version of the Gripen E fi ghter.

20

34

30

OnlineAdditional features and content are available to view online on www.media.aerosociety.com/

aerospace-insightIncluding: UK aerospace and Brexit, Drone control, Saab unveils Gripen E, In the June issue of AEROSPACE, Airbus Innovation

Days, RAeS History – post WW2, Hypersonics and space fl ight, Farnborough 2016 preview.

Volume 43 Number 7 July 2016

Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK [email protected]

3

The future of ... defenceStealth technology, drones, killer satellites and laser beams – what aircraft and weapons might be fi ghting the wars of tomorrow?

The fl ying billboardSpotlight on a little-known British aircraft project of the 1960s.

24

Front cover: A future vision of the Farnborough Air Show. Kaktus Digital.

14

What do the AH-64E, P-8A Poseidon, Protector and F-35 all have in common? They are all, of course, US weapon systems set to equip future UK forces and, as such, represent a shift in procurement strategy from supporting the UK’s national defence industry. It is true that the F-35 features signifi cant UK content and there may be new opportunities to expand UK content or services on F-35 (and even P-8) in the future. The reasoning behind these US platforms is not hard to fi nd – and the traumatic experience of Nimrod MRA4 (and previous procurement fi ascos) has been seared into politicians’ brains. ‘Gold-plating’, custom equipment integration and changing project requirements have been jettisoned in place of getting kit that works, on time and on budget. However, it does raise questions post-SDSR about the future of the UK defence aerospace sector, with only a single new combat aircraft development project (the Anglo-French FCAS) to latch onto. Where is the UK (or even European) equivalent to the US JMR rotorcraft project or to the Predator/Reaper UAV? Or DARPA’s concept for Loyal Wingmen or Swarming Drones? While the UK aero industry boasts of being second in the world – Japan (another F-35 customer and US ally) in the past decade has fl own a stealth fi ghter, a regional jet, two MPAs (one jet, one amphibian) and a new jet transport. Even Sweden (see p 34) is thinking about sixth generation fi ghter concepts. As the RAeS Air Power Group noted in a pre-Farnborough briefi ng to media: ‘The defence aerospace sector should be treated the same as nuclear, shipbuilding and complex weapons are – it is vital to sustain UK industry in this sector.’ The move to buy proven foreign defence equipment that will be delivered on time (and mostly on budget) is understandable for those familiar with previous procurement horror stories but, is it worth asking, has the pendulum now swung too far? Tim Robinson

[email protected]

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Editor-in-ChiefTim Robinson +44 (0)20 7670 4353 [email protected]

Deputy Editor Bill Read +44 (0)20 7670 4351 [email protected]

Publications Manager Chris Male +44 (0)20 7670 4352 [email protected]

Production Editor Wayne J Davis +44 (0)20 7670 4354 [email protected]

Book Review EditorBrian Riddle

Editorial Offi ceRoyal Aeronautical SocietyNo.4 Hamilton PlaceLondon W1J 7BQ, UK+44 (0)20 7670 4300 [email protected]

AEROSPACE is published by the Royal Aeronautical Society (RAeS).

Chief Executive Simon C Luxmoore

Advertising Simon Levy+44 (0)20 7670 [email protected]

Unless specifi cally attributed, no material in AEROSPACE shall be taken to represent the opinion of the RAeS.

Reproduction of material used in this publication is not permitted without the written consent of the Editor-in-Chief.

Printed by Buxton Press Limited, Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire SK17 6AE, UK

Distributed by Royal Mail

AEROSPACE subscription rates: Non-members, £155

Please send your order to: Dovetail Services Ltd, 800 Guillat Avenue, Kent Science Park, Sittingbourne, Kent ME9 8GU, UK. +44 (0)1795 592939+44 (0)844 856 0650 (fax)[email protected]

Any member not requiring a print version of this magazine, please contact: [email protected]

USA: Periodical postage paid at Champlain New York and additional offi ces.

Postmaster: Send address changes to IMS of New York, PO Box 1518, Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA.

ISSN 2052-451X

38 Keeper of the fl ame100 years of aviation history in the Boeing archives.

42

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Airb

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4

Radome

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

GENERAL AVIATION

Airbus advances LifeRCraft

INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT

Airbus Helicopters has revealed that a mock-up of its next-generation rotorcraft LifeRCraft (Low Impact Fast & Effi cient RotorCraft) demonstrator has undergone wind-tunnel testing at an Airbus facility. The LifeRCraft demonstrator is being developed as part of Europe’s Clean Sky 2 R&D project and builds on the company’s work with its X3 high-speed compound helicopter. The company aims to refi ne and improve the confi guration, bringing it closer to an operational design. As well as increased speed, Airbus is working on improved cost-effi ciency, as well as lower emissions and acoustic footprints. A prototype is expected to start fl ight testing in 2019.

Sleek shapeWhile Airbus’ X3 demonstrator was based on a AS365 Dauphin, the LifeRCraft features an all-new design but with obvious nods to the styling of its latest H160. A preliminary design review is expected at the end of 2016.

5JULY 2016fi@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Missions and rolesWhile this concept shows an EMS confi guration, Airbus forsees a wide range of roles and missions for this class of high-speed compound rotorcraft, including SAR, coast guard and border patrol, VIP or inter-city shuttle – as well as offshore and gas support.

Speed demonThe record-breaking X3 demonstrator achieved a speed in a shallow dive of 255kt in 2013, making it the fastest non-jet augmented compound rotorcraft. For the Clean Sky 2 LifeRCraft, Airbus is aiming at a cruise speed of 220kt. Like the X3, the tractor propellers on stub wings would be driven by the same gearbox as the single main rotor.

Rear clamshell doorsWhile the X3 was a technology demonstrator, the LifeRCraft refi nes the design with practical design tweaks. This concept for an EMS confi guration features rear clamshell doors. Another confi guration, for SAR, sees the side engine wing/pylons moved higher to allow a side door and winching.

6

Radome

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

NEWS IN BRIEF

Embraer has announced that the fi rst re-engined E190-E2 regional jet made its fi rst fl ight on 23 May, fi ve months ahead of schedule. Airborne for 3h 20min, the fi rst fl ight also saw the test pilots retract the gear and climb to 41,000ft.

As AEROSPACE goes to press, Boeing is reported to be on the brink of historic deal to sell more than 100 airliners to Iran

Air – the fi rst time since 1979 that US aircraft have been sold to that country. The deal, which could include 737s, 777s and 787s, still requires governmental approval.

On 31 May, Leonardo-Finmeccanica rolled-out its new all-weather SAR AW101 for the Royal Norwegian Air Force at its UK factory in Yeovil. The AgustaWestland AW101 Norwegian All-Weather SAR Helicopter (NAWSH)

features a new 360deg AESA Osprey radar from Selex which comprises fl at panels and no moving parts. Sixteen will be acquired by Norway with the fi rst delivery to begin in March 2017.

The Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM), attached to the International Space Station (ISS). has been successfully infl ated. If the two-year series of tests on the BEAM, the

fi rst private module to be attached to the ISS, are successful, Bigelow plans to launch a larger 33m3 B330 infl atable module fi tted with life support systems to support up to six astronauts.

Embraer has closed its Harbin Embraer Aircraft Industry assembly plant in China due to a lack of orders. First started as a joint venture with AVIC, the plant began by producing ERJ-145 regional jets in

2003 and then switched to Legacy 650 business jets in 2011.

An unmanned test fl ight of a hypersonic scramjet demonstrator has reached Mach 7.5 in Australia. The HIFiRE (Hypersonic International Flight Research Experimentation Program), a joint project by the US DoD and the Australian Defence Science and Technology Group, saw a scramjet demonstrator launched by

SPACE-FLIGHTPeake returns

Uni

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Airc

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Cor

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a pilot from the Russian Knights display team was killed when his Su-27 crashed outside Moscow. The same day, during a display at Leeuwarden, Holland, a pilot from Switzerlands’ Patrouille Suisse team ejected safely from a F-5E after a mid-air collision. AEROSPACE has learned, that the Red Arrows traditional aerobatic display at Farnborough Air Show has been dropped due to safety fears from

On 7 June, UK light aircraft manufacturer, e-Go aeroplanes, handed over its fi rst production aircraft to its fi rst customer – ex-Vulcan pilot William Burnett. The single-seat, all-composite

AEROSPACE

Irkut rolls out MC-21

On 8 June Russia’s Irkut rolled out its prototype MC-21-300 airliner at its plant in Irkutsk, Siberia. The single-aisle 180-seat MC-21, which has the option of P&W GFT engines or PD-14 turbofans, has so far attracted 175 fi rm orders. First deliveries to launch customer Aerofl ot are scheduled for 2018.

In the space of a week in June four military display teams lost four aircraft, with two pilots killed, with dual accidents on the same day.On 2 June two fighters from the USAF and US Navy display teams crashed within hours of each other at separate locations. In the first instance, a USAF Thunderbirds F-16 pilot ejected safely after

e-Go deliver fi rst production aircraft

Spate of accidents hit military display teams as Red Arrows reined in for Farnborough

e-Go evolved out out of a 2007 design competition

run by the Light Aircraft Assocation. Costing £50,000, the company claims the e-Go

costs £15 to fl y and now plans

to move into serial production.

e-G

o ae

ropl

anes

As AEROSPACE goes to press, the UK’s fi rst ESA astronaut, Major Tim Peake, returned to Earth on 18 June, after a six-month mission on the ISS as part of Expedition 47, with crewmates Tim Kopra and Yuri Malenchenko. Originally scheduled to return on 5 June, his stay on the ISS was extended by 13 days to keep it fully occupied.

performing a flyby of the Air Force Academy in Colorado, where President Obama was speaking. However, later that day saw a USN F/A-18 Blue Angels pilot killed during an air display rehearsal near Nashville, Tennessee. Meanwhile, on 9 June,

RAF top brass. New tighter display rules at FIA, introduced after the CAA’s post-Shoreham review, now include a ‘significantly’ reduced area for aerobatics. After a review of the safety case, the decision was taken to drop high-energy manoeuvres and restrict the Red Arrows to flypasts. A statement on the team’s site on 15 June confirmed the news saying: “the traditional Red Arrows’ display is no longer appropriate”.

DEFENCE

GENERAL AVIATION

7i f JULY 2016

a sounding rocket to an altitude of 278km from Woomera test range in South Australia.

Canadian regional carrier WestJet Encore has signed a fi rm order for nine Bombardier Q400 turboprops. The order is a conversion of previously booked options and will increase the operator’s fl eet to 45 Q400s.

MBDA has won a contract from the Ministry

of Defence for further development of its Spear 3 stand-off air-to-surface missile for the Lockheed Martin F-35B. The new four-year £411m contract covers design and development work to integrate the missile into the F-35B’s internal weapons bay. Spear 3 was succesfully test fi red back in March from a Typhoon. Space X’s Elon Musk has revealed more details of his proposed Mars

colonisation project. A initial Red Dragon landing 2018, would be followed by cargo trips every two years, with a human mission in 2025.

Bell Helicopters is to move fi nal assembly of its single-engine 505 Jet Ranger X to its facility in Mirabel, Canada. The 505 was originally planned to be assembled in Lafayette, Louisiana. Instead it will build subassemblies for the 525 and MQ-8C.

On 16 June, the Bombardier CSeries was awarded type validation from EASA and FAA – ahead of fi rst delivery to launch customer Swiss Air Lines at the end of June.

American Airlines has taken delivery of the fi rst US-manufactured Airbus A321 aircraft. The A321 was presented to the airline at a ceremony at Airbus’ FAL in Mobile, Alabama on 17 May.

Lockheed Martin, in partnership with Korean Aerospace Industries, has fl own a modifi ed T-50A advanced trainer aimed at the USAF’s T-X requirement. The aircraft, which has been upgraded for the T-X competition with a USAF refuelling receptacle, fi fth generation glass cockpit and embedded training software, fl ew on 2 June at the KAI facility in Sacheon, South Korea.

DEFENCEAIR TRANSPORT

AEROSPACE

Exclusive research commissioned by the RAeS has revealed a snapshot of UK public attitudes to civil and commercial UAV usage. The survey of over 2,000 respondents by ComRes found that the public was highly supportive of parapublic UAV roles, such as emergency response (91%), environmental protection (86%), police (83%) and infrastructure management (87%). It is

GENERAL AVIATION

On 23 May, two Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) Lockheed Martin F-35As arrived in Holland after making the aircraft's fi rst west-to-east transatlantic crossing from the US. Accompanied by a KDC-10 tanker, the

New philanthropic airline to take fl ight

@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Flying Dutchman drop in

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RAeS survey reveals UK drone perceptions

PO

P

Neuron UCAV fl ies at public air show

On 4 June, Dassault made aeronautical history when its pan-European Neuron demonstrator made the fi rst ever fl ight of a stealth UCAV at a public air show. The appearance saw the Neuron fl y at a public day at France’s Istres fl ight test centre. The Neuron took off from Istres and was joined in formation by a Rafale and Dassault Falcon 8X, before performing a fl yby at an altitude of 150m over the runway, less than 400m from spectators.

currently more cautious in other roles, such as leisure (37% support) and delivery (32%). The survey also found that four in fi ve British adults are at present concerned about safety, as well as privacy and tracing drone operators. Info: http://aerosociety.com/Assets/Docs/Policy/2016_06_16_News_Release_New_data_reveals_public_attitudes%20_to_drone_use_in_the_UK.pdf

A new low-cost airline, POP (People Over Profi t) aims to launch fl ights from UK to India with an innovative philanthropic model of donating 51% of its profi ts to charity.

The airline intends to start services in October to two Indian secondary cities, Amritsar (Punjab) and Ahmedabad (Gujarat), from Stansted, initially using a wet-

leased A330. As well as its pledge to donate over half of its profi ts to charities in the UK and India, POP is crowdfunding this start-up with the sale of ‘Gold Passes’ to

founder members.

fi ghters were also met in the air by the Dutch

defence minister The three-week deployment of the two F-3As was to assess

noise levels and logistics. The visit

also saw the F-35 make its international air show debut at Leeuwarden.

AEROSPACE / JULY 20168

.On 29 May a Chinese Long March 4B rocket lifted three Earth observation satellites from the Taiyuan space base in northern China into an orbit 500km above the Earth. The three satellites were the Ziyuan 3-2 Earth imaging craft to be operated by China’s Satellite Surveying and Mapping Application Center plus two 35kg micro-satellites owned by Buenos Aires-based company, Satellogic.

Following the fatal crash of an Airbus Helicopters H225 Super Puma off Norway on 29 April, EASA issued a directive on 2 June grounding all H225 and AS332 L2 helicopters.The move is in connection with a catastrophic gearbox fault that EASA has identifi ed and is one of three issues (gearbox suspension bars, conical gearbox housing, and the main gearbox epicyclic module) that investigators

have narrowed the cause down to.

Austria’s Diamond Aircraft has fl own the fi rst new DART-450 (Diamond Aircraft Reconnaissance Trainer) on 17 May from its base at Wiener Neustadt. According to Diamond, the turbine-powered DART-450 is the world's fi rst all-carbon fi bre tandem-seat civilian and military trainer with a sidestick and pneumatic ejection seats.

NEWS IN BRIEF

RadomeA

irbus

Hel

icop

ters

ESA Astronaut Major Tim Peake has been awarded a CMG in the Queen’s Birthday Honours list.

The new Chief Technology Offi cer (CTO) of Airbus Group is Paul Eremenko, formerly the head of the Group’s A3 Innovation Centre in California.

John Stephenson, Executive Vice President, Wizz Air Group, has announced his resignation, effective 1 August.

ON THE MOVE

CorrectionIn the June issue of AEROSPACE on p 10 of ‘Antenna’ it was stated that Leonardo (formerly Finmeccanica) was headquartered in Milan. It should be, of course, Rome.

We apologise for any confusion caused.

Vietnamese low-cost carrier VietJet has confi rmed a $11.3bn order for 100 Boeing 737 MAX 200s – the high density variant of the MAX. The airline is the second carrier after Ryanair to commit to the MAX 200, which is based on the MAX 8, but with a capacity for up to 200 passengers. Deliveries will begin in 2019.

On 23 May India’s Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) successfully launched a sub-scale reusable space shuttle from its Sriharikota spaceport on the east coast of India.

The sub-orbital test of the Reusable Launch Vehicle

(or RLV-TD) saw the spaceplane

launched atop a rocket to an altitude of 43 miles, before

splashing down in the Bay

of Bengal. The fl ight saw the RLV-TD reach Mach 5.

AIR TRANSPORTAEROSPACE

DEFENCEIndia launches spaceplane test

Boeing secures 100 MAX order from VietJet

Airbus Helicopters wins MFTS deal

As AEROSPACE goes to press, on 17 June, investigators reported that they had found the cockpit voice (CVR) and fl ight data recorder (FDR) of the EgyptAir Airbus A320 Flight MS804 which crashed into the sea while on a fl ight from Paris to Cairo on 19 May, killing all 66 on board. The ‘black boxes’ were located by

Airbus Helicopters is to provide helicopters to Ascent for the rotary-wing part of the UK’s

Military Flying Training System (MFTS) programme – beating a proposal from Cobham with

AgustaWestland types. Airbus will supply 29 H135s and three H145s as part of MFTS,

with training due to begin in 2018. The contract is set to run until 2033.

a recovery ship in one of the deepest parts of the Mediterranean. The aircraft disappeared off radar over the Mediterranean at 2.39am local time shortly after entering Egyptian airspace. No distress call from the pilots was received, with automated warning messages reporting smoke in the toilets and avionics bay.

EgyptAir A320 lost over Mediterranean

Boe

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SPACEFLIGHT

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DEFENCE

Aer

tec

@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

INFOGRAPHIC: In a year of anniversaries, a timeline of historic aircraft and milestones

Italy’s Piaggio Aero P.1HH Hammerhead UAV project suffered a setback on 31 May when the prototype crashed into the sea off Sicily during a fl ight test.

No welcome for Qatar in Atlanta

GENERAL AVIATION

Lock

heed

Mar

tin

The Hammerhead MALE UAV is a development of the P180 Avanti II, with the Italian Air Force and the UAE set to acquire the type.

S-92 fl eet racks up one million hours

Qatar Airways’ inaugural service from Doha, Qatar, to rival Delta Air Lines home hub of Hartsfi eld-Jackson Atlanta International Airport ended in bitter recriminations after 500 passengers were forced to deplane from an A380 from a

Sikorsky has announced that its global fl eet of S-92 helicopters has recently surpassed one million fl ight hours. With now 275 S-92s in service around the world, the milestone was reached in less than 12 years. As well as SAR and offshore missions, the S-92 is used for head of state VIP transport by 11 nations.

Hammerhead sleeps with the fi shes

Download & Share it!www.aertecsolutions.com/infographics

1800...

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

I Wor

ld W

ar

(19

14-1

918)

The

RAF

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912)

tr

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(193

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(19

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(195

8)

II W

orld

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(19

39-1

945)

1916

Junkers J1

revolutionary metal plane.

1919

KLM y AviancaKLM, the oldest airline in the world is created. And Avianca, the oldest airline in the Americas, is founded.

1783

brothers invent the hot air balloon.

1804

Sir George Cayley

He applies the concept

distinct shape in their upper and lower parts

1890

Éole

metres. Bat-like plane

Many did not consider

1891

Otto Lilienthal

person to perform

1900

LZ-1

airship by Ferdinand

minutes.

1903

Wright Flyer IOrville and Wilbur

in a heavier-than-air

1906

Alberto Santos Dumont

a heavier-than-air craft in Europe.

1910

The Franceairplane pilot licenses.

1914

Lawrence Sperry

time with an autopilot developed by the Sperry Corporation. He also invented the

is still in use.

1914

Benoist XIVIt becomes the model

Airboat.

1933

Boeing 247It features innovations

incipient autopilot. It is considered the prototype for modern aircraft.

1935

Douglas DC-3

commercial airplane, with an unprecedented level of comfort. Many

even today.

1938

Boeing 307

plane for commercial

pressurisation.

1939

He-178

aircraft in history, with

Hans von Ohain.

1947

Bell X-1First manned

aircraft was launched from a B29 bomber in

1949

De Havilland DH-106 Comet 1

aircraft.

1955

Lockheed T33

1957

Boeing 707-120

commercially successful

a reactor motor with comercial success,

1965

Boeing 707

1968

Tupolev Tu-144

aircraft.

1969

Boeing 747-100

that featured an upper

aircraft for three decades.

1969

ConcordeSupersonic aircraft for

1977

Space Shuttle

space vehicle. Orbital

with Colombia.

1986

Rutan Voyager

world nonstop without

1988

Antonov An225 Mriya

plane in service. There

1994

Boeing 777-200

by computer. It also incorporates a control system called

connections used for

2005

2004

SpaceShip OneFirst manned space vehicle with private capital. Reached

2013

most modern and environmentally-friendly

made with composite materials, which

Achieves an additional

2014

Electric aeroplane prototype.

2015-2016

Solar ImpulseFirst round the world

powered exclusively

1947

1976

Lockheed SR-71

reconnaissance, can travel at three times the speed of sound.

remain away from the

1927

Pan-AmPan American World Airways (Pan-Am) is founded.

1927

Spirit of St. LouisFirst nonstop

aboard the Spirit of

kilometres across the Atlantic Ocean, between New York and Paris.

1923

Autogiro Cierva C.8Juan de la Cierva

precursor of the

between London and Paris.

1

a

H

al

¿Did you know?

More than 120 years of aeronautical history

made with timber and textile. He did it from a hill in the Serranía de Córdoba (Spain)

A curious fact 2009

Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner

most modern and environmentally-friendly aeroplane.

for aircraft in its class

AEROSPACE

remote stand, instead of at the airport’s single A380 gate. Airport offi cials defended the decision, saying that Qatar had given insuffi cient warning to them that it would be using an A380 on the fi rst fl ight, instead of the 777-200LRs it will use

on the regular service. Meanwhile, Qatar CEO Akbar Al-Baker blasted the snub as “an absolute violation of the air-services’ agreement.” The incident is the latest escalation in the spat between US carriers and the Gulf airlines over competition and subsidies.

AIR TRANSPORT

Lynx affected?XCOR has laid off workers developing its reusuable Lynx spaceplane to focus on a liquid hydrogen engine.

AEROSPACE / JULY 201610

antenna:

Promising to be the most international event in the 68 years that it has so far been held, the 2016 Farnborough International Air Show really is poised to be one of the most interesting that

has been held over the past decade or more. With an anticipated increase in the number of overseas-based companies displaying equipment and services, fi rst time appearance at the show of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus A320neo, celebrations to mark the centenary of the Boeing Company and with luck, a European air show debut of Bombardier CSeries, this year’s Farnborough promises something for almost everyone that attends.

Held every two years and in this important year, opening its doors to trade visitors on 11 July, it is true to say that while the Farnborough Air Show may no longer be the largest aviation-related air show event held in the world, it remains one, if not the most important of all of them. Regular visitors will notice that much-needed investment has taken place at the Farnborough site since the 2014 show. This is welcome, not least, as it confi rms the determination by the organisers to ensure that in the competitive and still fast-growing world of aviation, Farnborough organisers are focused on demonstrating that they are prepared to adapt to the demands of a diverse and fast-changing global aviation industry.

This year two very important specifi c events are taking place at Farnborough and that in my view will mark this show out as being not only a very special event but one that will be remembered and referred to by visitors for many a year to come. Firstly, as mentioned above, trade and public visitors to Farnborough will be afforded the fi rst opportunity to see the F-35 appear at the show, both in the static on the ground and taking part in the air display.

Secondly, Founders’ Day at Farnborough, which occurs on Friday 15 July, also marks the offi cial centenary of the founding of the Boeing Company in 1916. This will take the form of a celebration of a remarkable 100 years of achievement and it is one that is going to be properly marked by Boeing at the show. Recognising the importance of the centenary event, Boeing will be presenting visitors with an interesting mix of heritage interspersed with examples of past, present and future innovation. The main emphasis for this will take place in the

Global Outlook and Analysis with HOWARD WHEELDON

Farnborough 2016 – heritage and future

specially constructed Boeing Centennial Pavilion exhibition in which Boeing will present a ‘Window in the Sky’ view of its fl ight-line history and present visitors with a wide range of interactive experiences to share. This really should be a must-see event and one that I suspect will not only show how this giant of the global aviation industry got to be where it is today, but also where it intends to be tomorrow and the day after.

Out of interest and apart from various commercial aircraft, for enthusiasts of Boeing heritage aircraft there will be various aircraft on display including a P-51 and B-17 right through to present-day examples of today’s military aircraft such as the F-15E, Chinook, V-22 Osprey, C-17 and Apache.

Subdued civil orders?

Some things don’t change though and the fact that over the past two decades large airshow events such as Farnborough and Paris, which alternate along with Dubai, Singapore and others and are seen as being the perfect place and time for large aircraft manufacturers to announce new orders from airlines. For some this will remain the dominant event at the show. Even so, while not wishing to disappoint, I suggest that compared to recent Paris and Farnborough shows, the number of new commercial aircraft orders expected to be announced at Farnborough this year will be far more subdued. That is not to suggest that the industry is slowing down, just that after ten years of vast numbers of new commercial aircraft orders, that it is pausing for breath. Even so, Boeing and Airbus along with second tier commercial aircraft manufacturers such as Bombardier, will all be hoping to grab headlines and without doubt some interesting new order announcements can be expected.

Airbus will also be very active at Farnborough this year showcasing, along with some of its partner airlines, various examples of the A380 and A350 XWB. The company now has over 800 fi rm orders for its new widebody family and with the probability that the latest version of the aircraft, in the form of the A350-900, will also be at the show there is a general expectation that Airbus will also update everyone on the larger A350-1000 now in development.

Airbus also hopes to have two versions of the A320neo at the show with their respective LEAP

JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Fa www.aerosociety.com 11i f

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The Lockheed Martin F-35B is set to be the star of the show.

FROM AN ECONOMIC, SKILLS AND JOBS PERSPECTIVE, SUCCESS OF THE F-35 JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER PROGRAMME, OF WHICH THE UK IS A TIER ONE PARTNER, CANNOT BE UNDER-ESTIMATED

and Pure Power GTF engines and it will also be profi ling the new Airspace cabin concept. From a rotary dimension, the company will be showing the H145 helicopter which is designed for mission capability and fl exibility and also for use, if required, in high and hot operating conditions. An A400M will also be at the show and hopefully, visitors will also be able to see an example of the fascinating world-record breaking Zephyr High Altitude lightweight solar powered UAV.

Other really important features include displays by Boeing’s P-8 Poseidon MPA of which the UK is planning to acquire nine aircraft and, importantly, the fi rst showing at Farnborough and in the UK of the 737 MAX aircraft of which the company now has over 3,100 on order and which incorporates advanced technology winglets made by a GKN subsidiary on the Isle of Wight.

At the time of writing, Farnborough organisers are also hoping to have a Bombardier CSeries aircraft at the event for the fi rst time in the form of either a CS100 or CS300 on display together with the all-new Embraer EJet E2. Dependent on how the fl ight test programme has gone through June, Hybrid Air Vehicles will also be hoping to demonstrate Airlander, the world’s largest airship. Other important aircraft expected to be on display include the Antonov An-178 and the Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet, Eurofi ghter Typhoon and Saab Gripen.

Recruitment drive

Refl ecting the importance of the wing plant at Broughton and how the company has been at the forefront of apprenticeship schemes, Airbus will also be placing a strong emphasis on recruitment. The company won’t be alone and the Royal Aeronautical Society, among others, including a variety of universities from all over the UK, will be working hard to emphasise various aspects of engineering in terms of careers to young visitors.

Important as Farnborough is for the ability to fl y, demonstrate and display a variety of commercial and military aircraft and UAVs, the event is just as much about showing a vast range of sophisticated aerospace technology, including avionics, radar and a variety of other equipment. The loss of Malaysian Airlines MH370 in 2015 highlighted the need for better equipment to track and locate commercial aircraft and a variety of sophisticated new technology is expected to be on display in the halls.

But if it is excitement one is seeking then look no further than, fresh from appearing at the Royal International Air Tattoo just prior to its arrival at Farnborough, the appearance at Farnborough of the F-35 which will no doubt provide the real talking point. Two Lockheed Martin-built F-35Bs are expected to display at the show and their appearance, following the aborted plan for 2014, will be particularly welcome. From an economic, skills and jobs perspective, success of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme, of which the UK is a Tier One partner responsible for producing 15% of each aircraft and that is also being acquired for the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy, cannot be underestimated. A fi fth generation single-seat, single-engine all-weather stealth, multirole fi ghter aircraft, the variant expected to display at Farnborough is the B STOVL (short-take-off and landing) fi ghter.

From both a trade networking and new technology aspect, Farnborough continues to be a very important event and one where new ideas and partnerships are born. It is an event where industries' latest technology developments, new thinking, planning and new ideas can be discussed. While it is true that plenty of competitor shows have merged around the world in recent years, Farnborough can still claim to be a cut above the rest. It is for example the only major airshow event that the vast majority of those engaged within the aerospace industry recognise that they must attend.

AEROSPACE / JULY 201612

TransmissionLETTERS AND ONLINE

RAF Air Cadets − more unanswered questionsI was relieved to see, in Transmissions in June, that others had concerns over Howard Wheeldon’s article (1). I then read AVM Andy Turner’s piece on Air Cadets at 75(2), which raised similar concerns. Nowhere is there any explanation as to why the situation occurred that led to the grounding of the Air Cadet’s aircraft or what lessons have been learned. This, I would suggest, should be fundamental to an article in the publication of the body responsible for setting professional standards in aerospace. Some of the questions that it would be instructive to know answers to:

• What was serious enough to warrant, in 2014, the whole fl eet of gliders to be grounded over an Easter week, which is one of the Air Cadets busiest? It must have been more than just a technical fault for the grounding to remain in force for many months. There is only a vague statement of ‘technical challenges’.

• What had 22 Group RAF been doing since 2010 when they took full charge?

• Was a full audit of the fl eet conducted on their transfer to the Military Register and who signed it off?

• Where is the Military Aviation Authority in all of this?

There are many more questions both technical and organisational. It is not something that should be hidden behind the Offi cial Secrets Act. These are simple training aircraft being used by school children and fl own by volunteers. There may be lessons here for the wider general aircraft community. Perhaps AVM Turner

the Buccaneer system with a Meteor NF11; then at Lossiemouth on a developmental hybrid Buccaneer/TSR2 HUD installed in a 809 Squadron Buccaneer. Incidentally,

the now ubiquitous ‘HUD’ acronym took over from ‘PEEP’ (pilot’s electronic eyelevel presentation) in the early 1960s.

John Goddard MRAeS

Artist’s concept of the HAV Airlander hybrid airship being used for oversize cargo transport. But would a hybrid airship have diffi culty hovering without forward momentum to give it lift?

might like to invite the Society’s Airworthiness and Maintenance Group to look into it. There is certainly the expertise within the Society and he could well learn much of value. However, I also suggest that the Society needs to maintain its leading publication as one that upholds its key value of improving professional standards and not as a way of promoting single points of view.

Roger Caesley MRAeS

Buccaneer and HUDs − the saga continues

In the May edition, Francis Whitehall’s letter(3) quite reasonably draws attention to the mis-attribution in the article A view to a kill(4) of the Buccaneer HUD to BAE Systems. Unfortunately the letter gives credit for this pioneering piece of equipment to the wrong company, Ferranti Defence Systems. Ferranti certainly developed the successful Blue Parrot radar and associated systems which provided output to the head-up display, but the HUD itself – pilot’s display unit and waveform generator – was developed and provided by Rank Cintel from the outset of the project in the 1950s. Rank Cintel, then based in Purley Way, Croydon, alongside the old Croydon Airport, grew from Cinema Television Ltd – TV pioneer John Logie Baird’s company – better known now for top-end telecine equipment. This part of Rank Cintel was acquired in 1963 by Elliott Automation of Rochester, who continued HUD production for Buccaneer, and its development for TSR2. EA was subsequently taken over by English Electric in 1967 and eventually subsumed

into BAE Systems. I worked for Rank Cintel and EA from 1962-65, as fl ight trials engineer supporting the HUD, fi rst based at RAE West Freugh with the Ferranti team developing

I read the article, Airship resurrection, in the May edition(5) and thought to offer some words of caution concerning hybrid airship approaches. Several times, these past 25 years or so, logistic airship initiatives have emerged only, and without exception, to fail or to perform insuffi ciently well to progress to an operational system. I have witnessed some of this fi rst hand as the program manager of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Walrus program in 2005, later in industry with advanced hybrid concepts, as a government consultant to high altitude surveillance airships and lastly, as author to a book on advanced airship technology approaches. The remarkable thing about lighter-than-air technology is that nature has provided logistics airship designers with an ‘anti-gravity’ material within a lower band of the atmosphere. An aircraft generates lift from the wing but incurs induced drag while an airship simply fl oats without any fuel use. Both aircraft and airships must overcome parasite drag in forward fl ight but the airship net fuel usage can be less because it does not need to expend fuel to sustain a fl ight altitude. Additionally, should an aircraft lose engines and be imagined to come to a stop, wing lift would disappear and it would drop out of the sky; a buoyant airship, on the other hand, would continue to fl oat in vertical fl ight. For

a logistics airship, this is the good news but despite it, one programme after another has failed to deliver. A most important issue was identifi ed by Thomas Brandt, CEO at the Zeppelin NT airship company in Germany, who was reported to say that, until someone solves the ‘lift-ballast technical problem’, logistics airships cannot be conceptually viable. By this, he was saying, if notionally 40tons payload is removed from a logistics airship, instantly it is 40tons lighter and unless compensatorily re-ballasted or tethered (air or cable) it will ascend very rapidly. Many recent hybrid airships claim to have solved this problem by fl ying the airship in a ‘heavy’ state, essentially like a winged aircraft, except that lift is claimed to be generated by forward speed airfl ow. Operating like a fi xed-wing aircraft, this hybrid airship must take-off, maintain cruise fl ight and land, generating aerodynamic lift

all the while. Post-landing, with dynamic lift zeroed, payload may be removed and the hybrid airship will again be neutrally buoyant. However, fl ight like an aircraft will come with all the drag issues associated with aircraft fl ight and also, the key airship values of zero-speed vertical fl ight and hover capability are lost – there are likely to be problems with control. It is the intention of hybrid airships to employ tail surface and thrust vectoring to achieve nose-up fl ight confi guration in the ‘heavy’ state. However, safety issues associated with the above, control challenges, drag and a host of other unknowns certainly pose substantial risk in the development of hybrid airships. So, not to rain on anyone’s parade and I wish hybrid airship efforts well but I do not think that fundamental problems have been solved.

Phillip Hunt FRAeS

Hybrid airships − a fundamental fl aw?

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OnlineAdditional features and content are available to view online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight

1. Thinking to Win, AEROSPACE, May 2016, p 10.2. Putting the air in the Air Cadets at 75, AEROSPACE, June 2016, p 22.3. Buccaneer and HUDs, Transmission, AEROSPACE, May 2016, p 12.4. A view to a kill, AEROSPACE, April 2016, p 14. 5. Airship resurrection, AEROSPACE, May 2016, p 14.6. Thinking to spin?, Transmission, AEROSPACE, June 2016, p 12.7. Mind meld, AEROSPACE, June 2016, p 36.8. Mach 1 mystery, Transmission, AEROSPACE, June 2016, p 12.9. Sir Geoffrey de Havilland – A life of innovation, Book Reviews, AEROSPACE, May 2016, p 46. 10. The Zeppelin, Book Reviews, AEROSPACE, June 2016, p 44.

Return to RAeS aeronautical roots?May I heartily endorse the import of the three letters published in the June issue(6) that chiefl y took issue with Howard Wheeldon’s gobbledygook article ‘Thinking to Win’(1) but also more generally with the rash of acronyms embedded in the ‘biz-and-milspeak’ jargon that increasingly passes for plain English in this magazine? The reason usually given for the use of jargon in any discipline is that it helps to make things more succinct. In AEROSPACE it patently doesn’t. As an ex-journalist, I could have reduced Wheeldon’s article to a single short paragraph without losing anything of value while greatly adding to its comprehensibility. In his letter, Stephen George admirably reminded us of the RAeS’s aim,

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Blériot IX-2 on display at Calais in 2009.

worldwide, which went from promoting British culture to acting as an early version of UK Trade & Investment. Please may we return to our aeronautical roots?

James Hamilton-Paterson

Brain control predictions

The June 2016 article ‘Mind meld’(7) put me in mind of a lecture given in 1966 by the distinguished Peter Hearne at a RAeS 100th anniversary seminar held by the Graduates & Students Section and themed on the title ‘Towards 2000’. As a senior manager within what was then ‘Elliot Brothers’ in Rochester, Peter was prominent in aircraft automatic control circles. One of the thoughts expressed in his lecture about the way forward in automatic aircraft control concerned the future

I have some comments on items that have appeared in recent issues of AEROSPACE which I hope will be of interest: on DH108, Count Zeppelin and the Blériot IX series. In the correspondence about the loss of Geoffrey de Havilland fl ying the DH108(8), I was surprised that no one has mentioned the subsequent test fl ight at RAE Farnborough by Capt Eric ‘Winkle’ Brown, as described in his book, Wings on my Sleeve, pp194-6. The new 108, which John Derry had already fl own, had strengthened wings. In the book, Brown described how, having discussed it with John Derry, he attempted to replicate de Havilland’s fatal fl ight, gradually reducing the altitude of the manoeuvres, until he hit the phenomenon. The violent oscillations, ‘porpoising wildly’, began at Mach 0.88 and he was subjected to ‘awful whipping of the plane’, stimulating ‘grim thoughts’. He suggested that this was how de Havilland had died: he believed that, being a big man his head cracked the canopy top, breaking his neck as the aircraft broke up. Brown was of small stature and had the seat lowered as far as possible, which he believed probably saved him but he was fearful for his life, and still had to recover the aircraft. His training took over and he reached forward with

both hands and hauled back both the throttle and stick. The violent motion ceased immediately. I Therefore, a propos J M Ramsden’s letter regarding the review of his book(9) and whether John Cunningham had reached conditions similar to those of de Havilland, it seems unlikely since, as I remember, Cunningham was very tall. If Brown’s hypothesis was correct, Cunningham wouldn’t have survived. Regarding the review of the book on Count Zeppelin(10), there was no mention that Zeppelin’s stressman was one Claude Dornier. I learned this in the superb Zeppelin Museum in Friedrichshafen and in the new Dornier Museum at the nearby aerodrome. Apparently Zeppelin assisted Dornier in setting up his own aircraft company. It’s perhaps ironic that Zeppelins dropped bombs on London during WW1, while Dornier’s Do17s wreaked havoc on London during WW2. Finally, in Tom Ender’s article in April(9), details were given of the

specifi cation of the Blériot IX-1, in which Blériot fl ew the Channel, winning the Daily Mail prize, in 1909. More details were given in a free booklet for the centenary exhibition in Calais in 2009. The engine was given as a three-cylinder Anzani 25 ch rotary (rotatif) engine, while the Blériot IX-2, which was on display, had a nine-cylinder Gnome 80 ch engine and larger, strengthened airframe. The original IX-1 is in the Musée du Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris, while the IX-2 was on loan from the Musée de l’Air et de l‘Espace at le Bourget. There was more fascinating history, both about the competition between Blériot and Hubert Latham, fl ying an Antoinette, to be fi rst across the Channel, and the Blériot aircraft, all in the booklet and in the March, 2009 edition of the Revue de l’Association des Amis du Musée de l’Air, also on free offer at the exhibition.

Nigel Wood FRAeS

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A cutaway of Reaction Engines’ proposed British spaceplane.Should AEROSPACE be covering the quest for aerospace knowledge more than sales fi gures?

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part of which is ‘the general advancement of Aeronautical Art, Science and Engineering’. Yet AEROSPACE seems increasingly to be hijacked by a grim interest in sales of hardware rather than a dispassionate (or even excited) quest for knowledge. This trend is regrettable and not dissimilar to that which in the Thatcher period overtook the British Council

likelihood of ‘wiring the pilot’s brain to the controls’. There was no attempt to distinguish between ‘systems management control’ and ‘direct fl ight path control’ but the idea was clearly ‘on the table’ at least 50 years ago. Clearly a fantastic futuristic idea at the time, now being discussed as a nearer-term practical possibility.

J Paul HodgsonCEng FRAeS

Count Zeppelin, the DH108 and the Blériot IX

AlixPartners directors, ERIC BERNARDINI, ERIC KRONENBERG andPASCAL FABRE, take a look at the global defence market outlook.

● Threats to national security have not diminished – Many observers see current spending levels as insuffi cient to defend against global threats, especially in the greatly expanded space and cybersecurity domains.

● Budget caps set under sequestration have eased – Current FY16 budget caps are $32bn higher than the original limits established under the 2013 Budget Control Act.

● Political priorities – Presumptive presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both seem to support a stronger military. Across party lines, voter sentiment to increase defence spending is at a 15-year high.

● Acquisition spending will most likely increase – Research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) spend could rise as the US military addresses aging platforms and the continued need to innovate (Figure 2).

Strong fi nancial results

For almost a decade, US major primes have focused on cash generation, profi tability and growing their international business. Revenues at US defence primes have dropped about 23% since 2012 but total sales dropped by about 12%, due to a pickup in international sales. For each of the past ten years,

14 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

DEFENCEMarket outlook

After years of budget constraints following the global fi nancial crisis, global defence spending had its fi rst annual increase in 2015. While it was only about a 1% uptick, it reverses a

trend of annual average declines of about 2% among Western countries and NATO members, which have made cutbacks each year since 2010. Non-NATO members sustained annual spending growth rate increases of about 6.5% since the crisis, supporting last year’s small global jump (Figure 1). A look at the fi gures in the table on the right reveals some diverging trends between the US and Europe, a dynamic that bears watching.

US defence outlookUS defence budgets suffered during the global fi nancial crisis, squeezed by sequestration, the Budget Control Act and the drawdown of US forces from the Middle East. In constant dollars, US defence budgets remain at 15-year lows, down 25% from their 2010 peak. The fi scal 2017 presidential budget, released in March 2016, is the second-lowest request in real terms in almost 15 years.

Global threats, from a resurgent Russia and an ambitious China, now force the US to consider increasing its defence spending. Our analysis shows some other factors supporting a likely increase:

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Above: The Northrop Grumman B-2 bomber is due to be replaced by the Northrop Grumman B-21 (concept image below).

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15i f JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Unmanned systems growth – Rapid adoption of automotive-like manufacturing processes could drive effi ciencies required for increased production volumes. Some unmanned systems may be viewed as expendable assets, with much lower reliability and maintainability requirements than conventional weapons systems. This tends to reduce total cost of ownership.

Space resiliency and control – These critical capabilities were once thought to have limited threat exposure but are now targets for adversaries. The

major US primes increased dividends and share buybacks (Figure 3).

Major US primes increased spending on internal research and development (IRAD) by 25% since 2014, matching the US government’s increase. This hike remains relatively small compared to spending on share buybacks and dividends.

International growth from Europe, the Middle East and Asia remains a goal for US industry but competition has increased (Figure 4). Most US primes are still on the learning curve with emerging national customers, who typically want to leverage defence spending to build up local industry and provide local jobs, while acquiring new technology.

The emergence of new players, encouraged by the US Department of Defense, may be the clearest path to providing more cost-effective, faster-to-the-battlefi eld solutions. SpaceX is the fi rst company to demonstrate that major disruption is possible, even in markets with high barriers to entry.

Forces of change and disruption

Several signifi cant developments in technology and manufacturing disrupters are reshaping the defence industry’s future:

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The Lockheed Martin/KAI T-50A is a contender for the USAF T-X programme for a successor to the Northrop T-38.

Figure 1. Global defence spend, 2000-2015.Source: SIPRI Database (Figures are in US $m constant 2014 prices and exchange rates).

Figure 2. Acquisition funding, 2013-2017.

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16 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

fi rms to meet customers’ needs with greater agility.Advanced materials – Their increased use

creates opportunities for many smaller defence players, as OEMs typically look to their supply chains to provide these components and technologies. Development efforts are focused toward metallic-only applications, such as using composite laminates in high-load structures, and high-temperature applications for ceramic composites.

Additive manufacturing – New methods are predicted to become 50% cheaper and 400% faster in the next fi ve years, as early patents on the technology expire.

Collaborative robotics or ‘cobots’ – While these form a relatively immature market, successful cobot demonstration tasks include coating and painting applications; assembly – torqueing controls and strength multiplication; exoskeleton controls; and in creating fl exible, modular manufacturing cells.

European defence outlook

Europe has entered a new normal for at least the next ten years, which will be characterised by threats both at its borders and internally. Major concerns include:

● Surging immigration that strains border controls;

● a resurgent and expansionist Russia;

● ISIS in Syria/Libya and increased terrorism with radicalised internal populations;

● a continent-wide aging population and;

● regional economic struggles after the global fi nancial crisis.

Following recent terror attacks and heightened security threats, France, the UK, Denmark, Spain, The Netherlands, Poland, Germany and most other European countries are ramping up defence budgets, reversing long declines. Germany though, kept its budget well below NATO’s 2% GDP target, and many other European countries are budgeting less than 1% of GDP for defence (Figure 5).

The Baltic and Eastern European states are also seeking to reinforce their defence capabilities with the support of Europe, NATO or the US.

European political leadership on defence is not very strong and has made little progress towards rationalisation in the past fi ve years. For now, pragmatism regarding limited resources will prevail. We believe current arrangements and common European interests will hold a basic structure in place and possibly prevent major divergence.

Military perspectives

Militarily, ‘one Europe’ does not exist but there tend to be collaborations between European countries driven by events and threats. Here’s how we believe it will work:

Sikorsky

DEFENCEMarket outlook

The Sikorsky S-97 Raider is a next-generation multi-mission helicopter platform capable of reaching speeds of more than 220kt.

Figure 3. Buybacks and dividend increases, 2002-2015.

Figure 4. International sales increases by major defence contractors.

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artners Analysis

AlixP

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White House plans to invest about $25bn over the next fi ve years to develop space defence and control capabilities, much of which will be classifi ed spend.

Capabilities / Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) – Future C4ISR and defence electronics will be based around reconfi gurable hardware, digital/software development and enhanced mission data. An emphasis on software-defi ned systems will allow

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DEFENCEMarket outlook

AEROSPACE / JULY 201618

● Operational needs focus on a balanced force – This cannot be achieved on any scale without collaboration: it generally requires shared C2 (command and control) and enablers such as ISR, cyber, lift, and logistics.

● US, NATO, and occasional bilateral arrangements – These will serve ongoing operational needs.

● High military spend – This is especially true for personnel costs.

● Buying capability upgrades – This may enable battle-proven collaboration.

● Investment in NATO standards, gateway projects and forums – This could encourage follow-on opportunities with other nations – and within nations.

● Intelligence and cyber collaboration – This may be constrained by national security and sharing concerns.

● Digital transformation – Putting digital at the heart of capabilities, linking mission systems, mission data, data-links, cyber, EW and targeting.

● Unmanned, automation and digital – While this is the inevitable next step to balance the operational

and budgetary equation, it is probably best left for the next generation to achieve.

Industry perspectives

Although industry profi tability reached 11% EBIT in 2014, European players tend to be less profi table with slower growth than much bigger US competitors (Figure 6).

European defence primes cannot afford to wait for regional political leadership to align. They have been adapting to diffi cult conditions for years, and can accelerate their transformation in the following ways:

● Collaborating with more or less success on complex European programmes, such as Eurofi ghter, A400M, Tiger and NH90. Many of these collaborations were constrained by poor specifi cation alignments, complex European partnerships and ineffective programme governance;

● focusing growth on international markets. Export wins in 2015-2016 included Rafale in Egypt/Qatar, Eurofi ghter in Kuwait and Gripen in Brazil, DCNS on Australian submarines;

● developing local supply chains to meet client offset expectations in growing their own industry and capabilities, as shown by the ‘Make in India’ initiative;

● cleaning up their asset portfolios, such as Airbus’ sale of its Defence Electronic Assets to KKR;

● simplifying complex interlocking ownership structures;

● balancing investments between platforms and new technologies, such as digital transformation;

● reducing cost and improving productivity, reshaping footprint, and

● providing more affordable, faster-to-the-battlefi eld product to remain competitive.

European industry is taking the lead and, as shareholder pressure increases, its transformation will accelerate.

The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect the views of AlixPartners, LLP, its affi liates, or any of its or their respective professionals or clients.

Figure 5. European defence budget increases, 2015 versus 2016.

Figure 6. European defence growth versus US defence growth.

The BAE Systems Taranis is an unmanned combat aircraft system advanced technology demonstrator programme.

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CHANGING THE WORLDONE CENTURY AT A TIME.

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Recovering from production delays, ramping up deliveries of narrowand widebodies and the possibilities of 3D printing, digitisation and automation were key themes at this year’s Airbus Innovation Days, held in Hamburg. TIM ROBINSON reports.

Williams wryly admitted to the press at Innovation Days: “Unfortunately, in the fi rst part of the year we were building a lot of gliders.” Currently, around 25 A320neo ‘gliders’ are sat parked up in Toulouse waiting for modifi ed engines which P&W is now delivering.

The good news is that the fi rst new ‘golden engine’ with fi xes has now been delivered by P&W, (“Thank God,” said Williams) and Airbus expects a smooth ramp-up and a rapid pace of deliveries, with

additional updates coming later in the year. This will cut the cold spool-up time from

today’s four minutes to 30 seconds. Software updates, meanwhile, have fi xed FADEC nuisance fault warnings, while a fi x to a hydraulic temperature glitch will be rolled out this summer.

Additionally, Williams was upbeat in noting that, while there are certainly

challenges, they were not connected with the PW1100G’s gearbox itself – which had

been supposed to be the highest technical risk item.

20 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

AEROSPACEAirbus Innovation Days

So far it has been a frustrating year for Airbus. Despite a massive 6,700 aircraft order backlog of eight years worth of production work, supplier issues with the A350 XWB (cabins) and the A320neo

(Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan) has meant it has been unable to deliver many of these highly-anticipated new airliners to customers.

As AEROSPACE goes to press, Airbus has only just (2 June) delivered the seventh A320neo to Indian airline GoAir, despite the fi rst delivery to Lufthansa back in January (a switch from the original launch customer Qatar Airways). The reason was issues with the initial batch of P&W PW1100G turbofans which require extended start-up times.

‘Gliders’ gather...

This had a major knock-on effect for Airbus’ delivery plan, as Chief Operating Offi cer Tom

I WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET RID OF DELINQUENT SUPPLIERS

Fabrice BrégierCEO, Airbus

Tom Williams, Chief Operating Offi cer, A

irbus (Airbus)

Airbus

It has been a troubled start to the year for Airbus’ fastest ever airliner – the A320neo.

Dash to Deliver

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tip of the iceberg in Airbus’ ambitious ramp-up plan. It plans to increase single-aisle production from Rate 42 today to Rate 60 (a month) by mid-2019 and have A350 XWB production at ten a month by the end of 2018. Comments from individual Airbus executives during Innovation Days were also illuminating in revealing an internal split over going beyond the Rate 60 mark for the A320 family. Tom Williams, for example, said at the moment he saw no need to go higher than this – which gives a ‘drumbeat’ of Airbus having to make a fuselage section every fi ve hours. However, on the sidelines of the main event, chief salesman John Leahy said that he would like to see it higher.

Despite its well-publicised hiccups, the engine is now meeting fuel burn and noise goals. Indeed, said Klaus Roewe, Head of A320 Family Programme, the 15% fuel effi ciency saving is, in fact, “pessimistic. It reaches beyond that on a per seat basis.” Noise too is meeting expectations, with a 50% reduction in noise footprint compared to the ceo.

In another burst of good news for the A320neo – during the event, word came in that the ‘other’ engine for the neo, CFM’s LEAP-1A had received joint EASA and FAA certifi cation. This meant, said Williams, that CFM-powered A320neos would be fl ying in July or August.

Widebody woes

While the ‘Toulouse A320neo Gliding Club’ has been collecting aeroplanes, Airbus’ fl agship widebody, the A350 XWB, has had a struggle of its own – this time over late cabin equipment. This meant that the manufacturer has struggled and only delivered nine A350s this year – the last one (30 May) to Cathay Pacifi c. Says Didier Evrard, Executive Vice President Programmes: “That was a big crisis.”

Items like seats and toilet doors may seem a minor component to hold up the delivery of a multi-million dollar airliner but, as CEO Fabrice Brégier caustically remarked to the press: “Passengers are strange creatures – they like toilets with doors that close.” However, it is clear that his patience is running thin. “I will progressively get rid of delinquent suppliers,” he warned, who are not up to the task of a 21st century aerospace supply chain. Another Airbus source confi rmed this view – noting that some companies in the cabin supply chain had yet to transition to the immense industrial scale and ‘drumbeat’ pace that Airbus needs – and were still living in an artisan age of aircraft manufacture. But it is worth remembering that last minute decisions or changing requirements by airlines, can play a part in this.

Indeed, Hamburg is also the location of Airbus’ new A350 XWB Customer Defi nition Centre (CDC), a swish showroom for cabin styles that includes virtual reality, a simulated galley to trial cooking equipment and LED lights to test colours and fabrics under different lighting. It also has a vast darkened hangar with ten A350 cabin sections, each decked out with pre-selected themes to create a certain look or experience for passengers.

With the goal to deliver 50+ A350s by the end of the year and only nine delivered so far, pressure is mounting. To that end, explained Evrard, the company is mobilising resources, adding an additional Station 20 where cabin fi tting is done. “There will be a much higher throughput in the second half of the year” he said.

The big ramp-up Delivering 650 aircraft this year though, is only the

First fl ight of 3D printed aircraft named THOR.

Drones replacing humans on cherrypickers can speed up inspection times by a factor of ten, as well as reducing accidental damage.

Airbus

However, balanced with that is that sales are slowing due to low oil prices and the neo backlog (4,515 fi rm orders) is such that there is now a four-year wait for A320neo slots. Going forward, Leahy explained this year the book-to-build ratio would settle into a more sustainable 1:1.

To support this massive ramp-up plan, Airbus is adding extra capacity and resources, as well as introducing new levels of automation to boost effi ciencies and output. In single-aisle it now has four FALs around the world, after opening its fi rst US factory in Alabama in 2015. In Hamburg itself,

The Airbus A350-1000 has emerged from the factory but has yet to receive engines ahead of fi rst fl ight.

Airbus

Airbus

22 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

Airbus is adding a fourth production A320 line at its FAL – as well as using part of an A380 facility to host stations doing A320 fuselage systems integration work. Meanwhile, in the UK, a new wing pulse line at Broughton featuring more automation, will build 15 wing sets a month from January 2017 and also reduce lead time from ten days to six. Single aisle cabin furnishing will be moved to Toulouse, cutting out on ferry fl ights.

It is not just on single-aisle too that evidence of this industrial muscle being fl exed is apparent. Nearby in Stade, a futuristic facility is producing the 32m long composite upper wing skin for the A350 – currently the longest composite component in aeronautics. A new automated composite fi bre placement machine, only two weeks in service (and to be joined by two more machines) gives never-before seen levels of quality and repeatability, as well as being faster.

Innovation on display

Beyond the immediate challenge of the production ramp-up, this year’s Airbus Innovation Days featured the usual mix of market forecasts, product updates on other models, such as the A330neo and A380 (now carrying 10% of all Heathrow passengers), and the inevitable swipes at the competition from its eminently quotable chief salesman, John Leahy. Bombardier’s CSeries, he said was a “cute little airplane” but questioned the economic viability of its Delta Air Lines order when he alleged that it was losing $7m per aircraft on the deal. Traditional rival Boeing was also in his crosshairs, saying Boeing’s plan to tweak the 737 MAX to address the ‘middle of the market’ 757 replacement would result in the ‘Mad MAX’.

Leahy also let slip the internal designation for a proposed A350-1000 stretch – called the ‘A350-2000’ – that would seat 400 passengers and go head-to-head with Boeing’s 777X-9. The A350-

1000, meanwhile, is set to fl y in September.Beyond the presentations on the usual Airbus

vs Boeing seat width battle, other briefi ngs focused on new innovations and technology that Airbus was developing and introducing into its business – such as 3D printing/ALM, big data, augmented reality, UAVs and automation. Additive layer manufacturing (or 3D printing) for aerospace applications is leading to ever bigger parts and also taking its cues from nature in bio-mimicry. Particularly interesting was a 3D-printed spoiler based on the design of the light, but strong pond lilypad. A 1.8m part will fl y on an A320 by the end of 2018 and its 3D printed design means it is 55% lighter than the previous spoiler. Meanwhile, a ‘bionic’ cabin partition, 3D printed from aluminum powder, is set to fl y on an A320 later this year. This is 45% lighter than the standard partition and potentially could be a retrofi t solution.

At Innovation Days, Airbus also revealed its fi rst 3D printed aircraft – THOR (Test of High-tech Objectives in Reality) – an electric-powered subscale demonstrator model of what looked like a twin-engine regional type. Taking four weeks to ‘print’, it was fi rst fl own in November last year. THOR is set to make 18 more fl ights this year and will help demonstrate how larger structures and even building complete aircraft might be possible with 3D printing.

Robots, cobots and exoskeletons

In the factory, Airbus is exploring new concepts of automation – going beyond traditional manufacturing robots and tools to humanoid droids and ‘cobots‘ (co-operative robots) to improve production times, quality and reduce burdens of workers. Exoskeletons, once a science fi ction staple, are now set to enter the factory fl oor, taking the weight off workers who currently have to heft a 12kg automatic drilling unit (ADU) to drill 600 holes per wing.

AEROSPACEAirbus Innovation Days

A 1.8m version of this 3D printed spoiler (lower image) based on a lilypad (of the type shown in the upper image), which saves 55% in weight.

Airbus concept.

From left: DirectPrint VTP 04, 3D virtual reality A350 XWB Powerwall Cave, cabin interior from Day 1 of Expo 2016, engineer at Bremen working on A330 and A350 mixed model wing manufacturing line. (All images Airbus)

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Elsewhere, augmented reality smart glasses will connect workers, bring information to them and allow them to navigate the factory.

Underpinning all of this is Airbus’ digitisation drive which, as well as improving effi ciency, also seeks to unlock creativity and forge new innovative partnerships outside the traditional aerospace sector – with initiatives like its BizLab, ProtoSpace and now annual Fly Your Ideas student competition. For example, it is partnered with the America’s Cup Oracle team, where knowledge from racing catamaran foils is now being used to improve Sharklet wingtip devices. Meanwhile, an idea from its BizLab start-up to use multi-rotor UAVs to inspect aircraft in production can speed up inspection time by ten times. Its parent Airbus Group has even teamed up with ridesharing service Uber in the US to trial an UberCopter helicopter service.

This Silicon Valley-style start-up drive raises interesting wider industrial questions. What will an aerospace company look like in 10, 25 or 50 years time? With Facebook, Google, Amazon and others now entering the aviation industry themselves with drones, blimps, and satellites – will aerospace and software companies one day become indistinguishable?

Summary

The rest of the year will be a tough one for Airbus in meeting these challenges. However, as chief Fabrice Brégier pointed out, it is certainly not as bad as the A380 wiring issues that impacted the company in 2006 and led to the departure of its then Chief Executive. This time around the issues came from external suppliers – a factor that at least means that the blame is shared. For those questioning the feasibility of ramp-up on single aisle, Tom Williams

reminded media that, back in 2005, Rate 30 was seen as ‘impossible’.

So can Airbus deliver its ambitious goals for this year? By putting numbers in the open, it is nailing its colours to the mast. Didier Evrard observed of the A350 catch-up plan: “The target remains absolutely achievable but it will come with a very high level of effort. However, it also has to be remembered that we are nearly six months through the year and if the traditional French August holidays are deducted – there is even less time.” Pressed by AEROSPACE on this point, Brégier admitted that the month of December will be “awful” for anyone in Airbus involved in fl ight test and deliveries – but adds: “We are preparing for it.” It may seem daunting, but on the single-aisle goals it is important to keep in mind only 20% of these will be the delayed neos, the rest being ceos.

There is also the undercurrent of Brexit and what that might do for the company – now a global player but one that relies upon free movement of parts (and staff) around Europe. If the UK does vote to leave the EU, it is unlikely (at least in the short term) to be benefi cial for Airbus and could potentially prove distracting if management suddenly had to worry about visas for key staff – instead of the main challenge it faces getting airliners out to impatient customers. Although Airbus recognises the decision is not its to make, the impact of a ‘zone of uncertainty’ of Brexit raises an additional unknown factor in its calculations.

However, while the task to catch up and push aircraft to customers may seem tough, with half the year almost gone – Airbus is now completely and utterly focused on this one goal and is bringing its formidable industrial and organisational muscle to the task. As Brégier concluded: “If we have the parts, the engines and cabin equipment we will deliver.” Can he keep his promise?

IF THE UK DOES VOTE TO LEAVE THE EU, IT IS UNLIKELY (AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM) TO BE BENEFICIAL FOR AIRBUS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PROVE DISTRACTING IF MANAGEMENT SUDDENLY HAD TO WORRY ABOUT VISAS FOR KEY STAFF

From left: Aircam drone used for detail visual inspection, interior of Airbus BizLab, the fi rst A350-1000 vertical tail plane, A350 engine mounting, A350 XWB noses in fi nal assembly line and A320 family FAL in Hamburg. (All images Airbus)

24 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

DEFENCEFuture technologies

As military aerospace continues to evolve – how will platforms evolve in the future? Just 16 years into the 21st Century, it may be that we are on the verge of an infl ection point in

military aerospace – one that straddles traditional crewed platforms which are costly to develop and fi eld and a new set of consumer-driven military tech, disposable, cheap and autonomous. How long will these two co-exist? Can they complement each other? Or will the ‘mammals’ of swarming autonomous drones eventually wipe out the ‘dinosaurs’ of traditional manned platforms?

Another analogy, at least for fi ghter pilots, might be the mounted knight of the Middle Ages, superbly equipped, expensive and highly effective against other knights or dismounted man-at-arms, but eventually made obsolete through gunpower, bows and the massed pikes. Might swarms of quadcopters, each perhaps carrying a single hand grenade, do the same for a fi fth gen fi ghter squadron by attacking them on the ground?

Rise of the robots

If the past 15 years or so have proved one thing, it is in the relentless rise of unmanned systems, now growing at an exponential rate thanks to the proliferation of affordable consumer technology. Although UAVs had been used before, it was the Predator over the Balkans in the late 1990s that unleashed the new age of persistent surveillance.

As in the early years of WW1, the evolution of UAVs is closely matching the development of manned aviation – from reconnaissance to armed scout and beyond. Today a bewildering array of military UAVs exist from tiny spy drones to converted cargo helicopters, stealth UCAV demonstrators and even high-fl ying solar-powered pseudo-satellites like Airbus DS’s Zephyr, able to stay aloft for weeks at a time.

But not all manned missions or roles can be easily transferred to the unmanned realm – even if the technology exists. For example, the elite US Army helicopter pilots of the 160th AAR ‘Nightstalkers’ have reportedly been lukewarm to the idea of an unmanned Little Bird – arguing that it is precisely the willingness to put their vulnerable bodies into harm’s way that creates the bond between them and the special forces they support. The fast jet pilot, which in many air arms sits at the apex of professional status and helps set the culture, would also argue that their demanding job would be the last to be taken by machines.

Yet it might be unwise to predict that some fl ying tasks would be off-limits forever. At a RAeS 150th anniversary debate earlier this year, in a packed lecture theatre fi lled with pilots, engineers and other aviation professionals, the motion was carried that ‘there would be no need for pilots in 50 years’ – even in airliners. Today, the US military is now training more UAV operators than fi ghter pilots. What happens when these personnel become fi ve star generals?

What will the next 100 years hold for military aviation? Swarming microdrones, hypersonic missiles and laser-armed fi ghters? TIM ROBINSONand BILL READ consider the future.

The future of....

Military aviation

RAeS 150

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i f JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com 25

Proliferation of capability

One big trend in military aerospace might be how the West’s qualitative edge, sharpened in training and technology during the Cold War, is now slipping away. The highpoint in 1991, where an allied coalition took apart a Soviet-based air force and air defence system, has been followed by a period where air superiority has been taken for granted.

Today that is no longer so. Russia now fi elds more advanced fi ghters, such as the Su-30SM, and is close to fi elding its fi rst operational stealth fi ghter the T-50 PAK-FA. The biggest leap, however, has been in China – which has been developing a dizzying array of military aerospace projects, including two stealth fi ghters (J-20, J-35), strategic transports, UAVs and even weapon systems with no Western equivalent (DF-21D carrier-killer missile). US allies too, such as Japan, South Korea and Turkey are working on stealth combat aircraft projects.

Yet, possibly the most signifi cant factor here is not that other countries are catching up with the West but that consumer technology (smart phones, 3D printers) is now putting what were cutting edge military tools in the hands of everyone. Today, it could be argued that many teenagers with a consumer drone and a HD camera now own ISR capabilities that even ten years ago some air forces would be jealous of.

Future air power planners will have to take into account that the airspace may be contested, not only by peer rivals with SAMS and stealth fi ghters, but also by non-state actors, such as terrorists, insurgents or even individuals.

LO and relevance

One design driver for platforms that will continue is the incorporation of LO technology wherever possible. Blended fuselages, aligned surfaces and radar-absorbent materials will help to hide and protect an aircraft from the main sensor – radar. But, while shaping and materials make up the traditional stealth recipe, in the future other means may be developed to hide aircraft from sensors. For example, with sophisticated and ultra fast processing power (or even perhaps quantum computers), ‘active stealth’ may be practical – rebroadcasting a radar signal to its receiver to ‘cancel’ out the aircraft’s return. Closer in, there might also be developments in visual

range optical or adaptive camoufl age – able to make a fi ghter effectively invisible in a dogfi ght or a helicopter vanish when approaching a landing zone.

Longer life for legacy platforms

Yet another trend we see is the continual upgrade and life extension of existing platforms. The Boeing B-52, for example, may soldier on until 2044 – some 92 years after it fi rst fl ew. It could even be potentially in service at 100,

despite the go-ahead for the B-21 replacement. The CH-47 Chinook, and variants of the Bell

UH-1 too, could become the fi rst 100 year old helicopter designs, progressively upgraded and still capable.

Related to this is the growing realisation, at least in parts of the West, that the post-Cold War underinvestment in defence and the extended development times of new platforms, such as F-35, are opening up a yawning gap in combat power. How then best to bridge the gap? In the US, for

example, the Pentagon has already revealed concepts for ‘Loyal Wingmen’ – turning legacy fi ghters into unmanned UCAV wingmen and acting as airborne reloads for smaller numbers of fi fth-generation fi ghters. A related concept from DARPA, Gremlins, seeks to use older bombers or transport aircraft to deploy swarms of small UAVs which could then be recovered in mid-air.

All sensors, all shooters

Another trend set to continue is the breakdown of traditional mission roles and types of military aircraft. Multirole (fi ghter or bomber, depending on load-out), for example, has been replaced by omnirole or swing-role (fi ghter and bomber on the

same mission). The ubiquitous targeting pod has now turned every fi ghter into an ISR platform

– able to perform its own pre- and post-strike reconnaissance and share this with ground forces and other assets. While fi ghters are now carrying out surveillance, transports are now toting weapons. Cessna’s Combat Caravan, for example, has turned a turboprop

utility aircraft into a Hellfi re platform. Meanwhile, the USMC is considering

equipping all of its C-130J fl eet with the Harvest Hawk weapons kit, as well as arming

its MV-22 Ospreys, turning its entire transport force into shooters. Others have mulled turning tanker aircraft, on station for hours on end, into mobile ISR or communication nodes, by equipping them with targeting pods.

The F-35, and future platforms to be developed may take this even further – blending strike roles

Will there be a sixth generation of manned fi ghters or will their function be replaced by unmanned systems?

The Gremlins concept from DARPA proposes using older aircraft as launch platforms for

swarms of small UAVs.

DA

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Coming soon – Russia’s Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA stealth fi ghter.

From manned fi ghter to UAV – a modifi ed

QF-16 drone.

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26 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

DEFENCEFuture technologies

Transports and helicopters

While some legacy aircraft and helicopters may continue in service for decades – military applications could be new testing grounds for more radical confi gurations. While much focus has been on blended-wing body aircraft as airliners, it may be that the fi rst application could be a military transport, tanker or even airborne command post. Highly effi cient and with a large internal volume, a BWB could have interesting potential as a future military type.

In rotorcraft, too, change is afoot around the world as militaries seek faster helicopters. The US JMR/FVL (Joint Mulitirole Rotorcraft/Future Vertical Lift) is perhaps the best known, but Airbus Helicopters is also working on high-speed concepts, as well as Russian Helicopters.

Ethics and responsibility

It might also be argued that, as autonomy increases, so do the temptations for unscrupulous powers or operators to ‘unleash’ the power of a fully autonomous weapon, to gain a decisive edge of the battlespace. This in itself may throw up new and original dilemmas for commanders. Could, for example, a highly intelligent UCAV ‘rebel’, decide to defect or even get locked in a feedback loop if, for example, it receives contradictory orders (save the village by bombing it?). Discussions on the intelligence of future aircraft and weapon systems may seem like Isaac Asimov or Iain M Banks science fi ction – but they are worth pondering now. Note the amazing recent achievement in AI in winning a Go match against a human – a feat thought impossible, as the technology was still thought underdeveloped.

But perhaps more crucially, the biggest application of autonomy and artifi cial intelligence on the battlespace may not be in piloting an aircraft itself (FMS and autopilots already do that to some extent) – but in coping, assessing, and understanding the staggeringly vast amounts of information that pilots and commanders now have

with ISR and even ELINT and SIGINT. In particular, the F-35’s electronic suite will help it dominate the future battlespace, hoovering up electrons.

Sixth-gen fi ghters and beyond?

Will so called ‘sixth gen’ fi ghters be the natural follow-on to F-22s, F-35s, Typhoons, Rafales and Gripens? Industry in the US has been keen to present its concepts to fulfi l NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) and F/A-XX requirements. Sweden’s Saab, too, is studying a notional FCAS (Future Combat Air System) while Dassault is reported to be working on a Rafale semi-stealth update, via its DEDIRA project. Russia, too, although facing funding diffi culties due to the economy, is also said to be working on a sixth-gen, possibly hypersonic fi ghter, with an ambitious goal of fl ying it before 2025.

However, in recent months, the USAF has rowed back from the idea of sixth generation ‘fi ghters’. Instead it sees in 2030 a combination of manned and unmanned systems, with ISR nodes, missile and fuel ‘trucks’ dominating the air superiority battlespace, being controlled or directed by airborne manned command nodes – such as F-35s or B-21s. Airborne refuelling (and even rearming) of unmanned systems would enable an ultra-persistent SEAD or BVR CAP over large swaths of territory.

RAeS 150

‘Shooters’ of the future may come in all shapes and sizes. An Iraqi Air Force Cessna Combat Caravan fi res a Hellfi re missile.

THE BIGGEST APPLICATION OF AUTONOMY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE BATTLESPACE MAY NOT BE IN PILOTING AN AIRCRAFT BUT IN COPING, ASSESSING, AND UNDERSTANDING THE VAST AMOUNTS OF INFORMATION THAT PILOTS AND COMMANDERS NOW HAVE ACCESS TO

BAE Systems’ concept for a fi ghter aircraft of 2040.

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access to – which today includes imagery, electronic and traditional intelligence – but also now huge swaths of data generated by users themselves. In the future, could a fi ghter pilot locate and attack a hidden SAM site, purely by an AI algorithm that geo-locates a missile operators ‘selfi e’ taken on their smart phone?

Future weapons

Having considered what military platforms might be seen in the skies of tomorrow, what type of weapons might they be armed with? A current major class of weapons is that of missiles – and will likely to continue to be so. Ranging from long-range ICBMs to small tactical defensive systems, missiles are used for a wide variety of functions – as long-range weapons, as offensive weapons aboard land, sea and air platforms and as counter-measures against all of the above. As the cost of military aircraft continues to rise, missiles are the weapon of choice for smaller nations wishing to establish their presence on the international scene – particularly those with a nuclear capability.

One key phrase that keeps cropping up in discussions of future weapons systems is ‘precision targeting’. Technology has now developed to the point that missiles (together with ‘smart’ shells and bombs) can be guided to precisely the target point where they are needed. This has the advantage that fi rstly, collateral damage to non-military assets can be avoided and secondly, that no missile is wasted.

However, precision missiles also have their drawbacks, being expensive to develop and having long lead times before they can actually be used. To give an example, MBDA is currently developing the SPEAR (Selected Precision Effects At Range) precision strike air-to-surface missile to be fi tted to the UK’s Typhoon and F-35 fl eets. First launched in 2012, the development is expected to be completed by 2020. The project is costing £150m for the assessment phase and £411m for the development phase.

One way to reduce the price of developing missiles is to share the cost. Britain and France have formed the Materials & Components for Missiles Innovation and Technology Partnership (MCM-ITP) to work jointly on future missile development (see Defence partners, AEROSPACE, December 2015). There have also been moves to make missiles more adaptable for different missions. The UK is currently working on plans to reduce the number of different

i f

weapon types from 22 down to only fi ve by using common components and modules. In 2015

Boeing conducted tests of DARPA’s Triple Target Terminator (T3) – a

high-speed, long-range missile fi tted to manned or unmanned aircraft

designed to be used against air, cruise missile or air defence targets.

Hypersonics

One particular area of recent missile research has been into long

range hypersonic weapons. In wars involving exchanges of long-range missiles, the victory will

go to the combatant who can reach the target fi rst – either in pre-emptive strikes against enemy targets or in launching interceptors to counter incoming nuclear ICBMs. The US has been conducting research into hypersonic weapons for some time – not always with success.

A test of the US Army Advanced Hypersonic Weapon saw the missile fl y 2,300 miles in 30 minutes but a second test had to be aborted a few seconds after launch. Out of four tests conducted on the US Air Force X-51 Waverider Mach 6 scramjet cruise missile, only one was successful. DARPA worked on the Falcon Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 (HTV-2) Project in which a rocket was used to launch a hypersonic vehicle into space which would then travel at speeds of up to Mach 20. Two test fl ights ended prematurely and DARPA ended the programme.

China and Russia are also working on hypersonic vehicles of their own. Russia is

SPEAR missile being launched from F-35 internal weapons bay.

MB

DA

DARPA has tested its Falcon Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 (HTV-2) at speeds of up to Mach 20.

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28 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

DEFENCEFuture technologies

a future confl ict, neutralising or eliminating such satellites would give an aggressor an instant advantage. Deprived of data from satellites, most hypersonic and precision missile systems would be unable to operate.

However, although destroying satellites might give one nation an advantage, it could also lead to reprisals which might leave the enemy worse off than before. There is the risk that orbiting space debris from an enemy’s destroyed satellite could damage or destroy ‘friendly’ satellites. There have been other proposals to disable satellites, such as using lower powered lasers to damage its systems, using another spacecraft to damage it or destabilise its orbit or hijacking transmissions from ground control.

Evolving warfare

Although it is possible to predict the nature of future warfare from current research projects, the nature of warfare is constantly evolving. As new weapons are developed to counter threats (either real or perceived) from other weapons, it is more than likely that the development of new technology will lead to the creation of new platforms and armaments that have, at the moment, not yet been imagined.

developing the Yu-71 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) which could be carried aboard an ICBM. China is also reported to be developing the WU-14, a Mach 10 delivery vehicle capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Electronic warfare

In addition to carrying weapons, military aircraft are also equipped with all the other systems needed for them to operate, including radar, communication, navigation, targeting, intelligence gathering, network centric capabilities and (in the case of UAVs) control and guidance systems. Not only will these on-board systems be further developed and enhanced in the future but so will the electronic warfare counter measures designed to disable them.

In March 2015 Russia claimed to have developed a new electronic warfare system which could be mounted on aerial helicopters, marine or land platforms and used to jam enemy weapons systems up to distances of several hundred kilometres away.

Cyber warfare, E-bombs and space

Another factor to bear in mind is the objective of a military confl ict? While many defence companies tend to extol the virtues of weapons that ‘go bang’, there are other ways of winning a war. Future confl icts will not just be about destroying an enemy’s weapons but also the infrastructure and systems which enable them to operate. A weapon that cripples an enemy’s ability to navigate or communicate could be just as effective as one that shoots down aircraft or destroys bases.

Military experts predict that future confl icts are likely to be fought not just in the real world but also in cyberspace where attacks on the Internet and electronic communication systems could disable an enemy’s communications, power and infrastructure. National governments are already devoting increasing amounts of their defence budgets to monitoring cyberspace to detect potential threats and creating defensive cyber capabilities to protect key infrastructure against cyber attack (see Fighting a cyber Battle of Britain, AEROSPACE, June 2015).

Another likely weapon of the future is high-power microwave (HPM) weapons which can be used to disrupt and destroy electrical systems. Microwave technology can also be used to create the electromagnetic bomb (E-bomb) which emits a non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse capable of destroying electronic circuitry and communications networks.

A third arena where new methods of warfare are evolving is in space. Orbiting military satellites are being used both for observing other countries and to provide data used by military forces for navigation, positioning and precision targeting. In

RAeS 150

One of the drawbacks of missiles is that there are only a certain number of them. A ship or a ground-station could be attacked by a swarm of small missiles or drones which could overwhelm its total of defensive missiles. There are therefore advantages in having defensive weapons which have no limit on the number of times they can be used.

Rail guns

One future technology that is being developed as an alternative to conventional missiles is electromagnetic (EM) rail guns which use a magnetic fi eld as an alternative to chemical propellants to fi re projectiles. These can operate at long range and fi re at velocities of between 4,500-5,600 mph. EM rail guns offer advantages over missiles for both attack and defence in that they can be used for sustained periods of time and fi re

Unlimited fi repower

more projectiles than can be countered by missiles. Currently under development by both the US Army and the US Navy (and it is also rumoured by China), EM rail guns can be operated from land and sea platforms but are currently impractical for use on aircraft, as they need very large amounts of electricity to operate.

Lasers

Research is also underway into the use of high energy laser systems as offensive weapons. Lasers also have the advantage that, unlike missiles, they can be

fi red continuously without running out of ammunition. Other advantages include long-range attacks at the speed of light, a high degree of accuracy (which also reduces the risk of collateral damage), the ability to hit multiple and moving targets, scalability from lethal to non-lethal, quick deployment and silent operation. At present, lasers are only really practical for use on land or ships but the US, Russia and China are all currently working on plans to refi ne the technology so that they can be fi tted on aircraft (see Insight blog Light sabre rattling).

A drone swarm attacked by lasers.

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THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY WILL LEAD TO THE CREATION OF NEW PLATFORMS AND ARMAMENTS THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN IMAGINED

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PROFESSOR KEITH HAYWARD FRAeS sees US launcher policy at a crossroads and considers the competitors in a keenly contested field.

is facing turmoil generated by a new approach to putting satellites into orbit. The charge is led by Elon Musk, founder of PayPal, with his SpaceX organisation and by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos with his Blue Origin enterprise. Both have used their private fortunes – unprecedented in the history of the space business – to develop rockets. Originally viewed as the ultimate in billionaire vanity projects, both have successfully demonstrated key technological features and have rattled the complacent business model of traditional space industrial activity.

SpaceX the driving force for change

Musk is now looking to Mars and planetary exploration but underpinning his space ambitions is the fundamental commitment to cut the cost of accessing space. Since 2002, this has centred on developing SpaceX and the Falcon family of launch vehicles. From the outset, SpaceX sought radically to cut the cost of development and production, mainly through sourcing proven technologies and components and slashing the ‘red tape’ of public procurement and government-orientated companies. Musk has also adopted a vertically integrated approach to the supply chain, developing as much as possible ‘in house’ to obviate expensive layers of supply chain activity. As a result, SpaceX promises a cheaper launch even without its fi nal cost-cutting strategy – reusability.

30 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

SPACEFLIGHTLaunchers

Blu

e O

rigin

Spa

ceX

ROCKETMEN

Oh what it was to have a simple business model! Provide launch services for the US Department of Defense and NASA, a market closed to foreigners, which was effectively

a monopoly position enabling premium prices for availability and reliability; and ready access to a robust and dependable main rocket engine for your heavy lifter. But how so quickly the wheels can fall off. Politics stymies the supply of motors from your friendly Russian contractor; and two, not just one, billionaire rocket men begin to muscle in on a cosy relationship with your prime customers – with the temerity to offer much lower prices!

To compound matters, a Chief Executive is sacked for an out-of-turn speech (which may have been an accurate view of events) and a mandated DoD investigation hits the road. Worse still, Congress is only promising to fund part of the development for your new heavy lift launch vehicle. This, in a nutshell, is the position facing United Launch Alliance (ULA) as it confronts SpaceX and Blue Origin and a deadline to replace dependence on Russian technology.

This may be something of an over-simplifi cation: the fact that the US military market was not big enough to sustain two launch providers helped to push the formation of ULA in 2006 out of the rocket interests of Boeing and Lockheed Martin. But there is little doubt that the American launcher business

Above left: Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, inspects their West Texas launch facility before the rocket’s maiden voyage. (Blue Origin)

Above right: President Barack Obama tours the rocket launch site of SpaceX, along with Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Cape Canaveral, Florida, US. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

31i f JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

use the Falcon 9 to put a classifi ed payload in to orbit sometime in 2017. This sort of mission was hitherto a virtual UA monopoly; to rub salt into the wound, ULA was not invited to bid for the contract.

The next step is to show that it can refurbish these rockets and their engines quickly and cost-effectively for new fl ights. The fi rst fl ight of a fl own booster could come some time this summer. The ultimate aim is make nearly all of the Falcon reusable and to make launches and landings as routine as an

aircraft. Musk claims that a Falcon 9 might fl y ‘as many as 100 times before retirement’.

How much exactly would reusability knock off the price of a launch? Initially, SpaceX claimed to reduce the cost of a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused booster to $43m per fl ight, a saving of 30%. Jefferies International, a US-

based investment bank, has done some sums; taking a list launch price of $61.2m

and assuming a gross margin of 40% on the launch, a SpaceX launch costs $36.7m. Breaking these numbers down leaves a fi rst stage at $27.5m of the total. With the fi rst stage used 15 times and half the savings passed on to customers, Jefferies calculates that SpaceX could reduce launch prices 21% – or $48.3m a shot. A greater discount and more additional fl ights would drop the price still further. This is despite the fact that a reusable rocket needs to carry more fuel than an expendable system. The key unknown is the time between uses and establishing a cost effective launch cadence. Anything like a regular schedule will set a major challenge to existing launch providers.

Reusability has been something of a space Eldorado: the Shuttle was conceived with this principle at its core but design changes compromised the original intent. Other launch systems have continued to use and dump, rejecting the perceived costs of developing an alternative. SpaceX has developed a returnable fi rst stage that, after refurbishment, could be used several times further. Easier said than done, or at least until this year. Combined with other technical failures, the reusable Falcon seemed to be in trouble.

Up to this point, the rise of SpaceX had seemed unstoppable. In May last year the Falcon was certifi ed by the USAF to compete for its spy satellite business, as well as offering commercial launches at around $60m against ULA’s $164m for US government satellites. This came after 17 successful Falcon 9 missions, which gave the USAF suffi cient assurance for it to launch sensitive US military satellites. NASA also awarded an estimated $700m contract for fi ve more space station supply missions. SpaceX now has the edge in a competition with Orbital-ATK, the third major US satellite launch supplier, for the business. The successful 11 April 2016 mission to supply the International Space Station put the company generally back on track. Even more important, the Falcon rocket has now demonstrated reusability three times.

SpaceX’s successful return to the business of launching satellites has been underscored by the US National Reconnaissance Offi ce (NRO) decision to

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE AMERICAN LAUNCHER BUSINESS IS FACING TURMOIL GENERATED BY A NEW APPROACH TO PUTTING SATELLITES INTO ORBIT

Salvatore T ‘Tory’ Bruno, President and CE

O, U

LA

Space X ULA Blue OriginFounder: Elon Musk Locheed Martin Jeff Bezos (founder of PayPal) /Boeing (founder of Amazon)

Founded: 2002 2006 2000Employees: 4,000 3,400 600HQ: Longthone Denver Kent California Colorado WashingtonLaunch Facility: Texas / Florida Florida TexasProposedRocket: Falcon Heavy VulcanEngine: Merlin BE-4Thrust: 170k 550k(Ibs of thrust)Powerplant: Falcon Heavy 2 x BE-4 (3 x Falcon 9 rockets containing 9 Merlins)

Total Thrust: 3.96m 1.1m (Ibs of thrust)

32 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

A key factor will be convincing space insurers that a refurbished rocket will have the same reliability as a new launcher without attracting high additional premiums. Although a guaranteed amount of US government business will help SpaceX, a signifi cant share of commercial work will be needed to maintain an economic production level. This, in turn, will put pressure on the likes of Arianespace to cut their costs and remain competitive.

SpaceX is now looking for a customer for its fi rst commercial mission using a refurbished Falcon fi rst stage. Luxembourg SES, the world’s third largest satellite operator, is prepared to be the fi rst user but is reportedly seeking a 50% price discount to match the risk of failure. Also later this year, SpaceX hopes to launch the Falcon Heavy, which will provide access to the largest military and commercial satellites – an event that will mark SpaceX’s entry into the most lucrative telecommunications satellite market.

ULA’s problems

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s main US competitor for Department of Defense (DoD) and NASA business is facing a major investigation directed by Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, in March to determine whether contracts awarded to ULA conform to DoD and Federal regulations. The competition between ULA and SpaceX to work with the United States Air Force (USAF) and launch security-related satellites is turning into an increasingly bitter dispute. The current imbroglio stems from a speech made by Brett Tobey, ULA’s Vice President of Engineering, claiming undue preference was being shown to SpaceX.

Although Tobey subsequently resigned and ULA disavowed his comments, under pressure from Senator John McCain, chairman of the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee, the matter was referred to the DoD Inspector General.

This piled more problems on to ULA, already under pressure to replace its main launcher, Atlas V and its sanctioned Russian-built Energomash RD-180 rocket motor. ULA has been allowed to use the RD-180 for a number of future national security missions up to 2022, when the next generation heavy lift rocket is scheduled to enter service but last year’s reorganisation of the Russian space industry has employed several individually sanctioned offi cials, a move that may lead to a complete rethink of the ULA deal with Energomash. The new ULA investigation will be thorough and could be several months in preparation. In the interim, US launcher policy is likely to drift, especially if Congress cannot agree on full funding for the next generation rocket. In the meantime, Rocketdyne has been awarded a $534m contract to help develop a ‘drop-in’ engine to power the Atlas V; Rocketdyne will contribute over $250m to the programme.

Main image from left to right: A Blue Origin New Shepherd

landing (Blue Origin), A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket blasts off from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (ULA) and CRS-6 Falcon 9 launch (Space X).

SPACEFLIGHTLaunchers

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The Vulcan

ULA’s main focus for the future is the Vulcan heavy lift launcher. This is intended as the all-American replacement for Atlas V and will also involve Orbital ATK and SpaceX. The cost of the new rocket is put at $2bn dollars, half for a new main engine. The US government is being asked for $1.2bn dollars to cover development but some members of Congress want only to cover the cost of developing a domestic engine to replace the RD-180.

As part of its cost-cutting drive, ULA has teamed with Blue Origin to develop an upper stage engine for the Vulcan. Hitherto focused on the New Shepard sub-orbital vehicle and cheap manned access to space, Bezos’ private fortune is also providing an edge in funding and expediting development of the upper stage BE-3 motor, as well as the BE-4 main engine. The latter will provide strong competition for the long-established Aerojet Rocketdyne, further highlighting the disruptive effect of the new space entrepreneurs.

Arianespace under pressure

The challenge posed by SpaceX and Blue Origin is putting pressure on Arianespace, the world market leader for commercial launches. Now fully controlled by Airbus Safran, makers of the Ariane rocket, Arianespace will have to cut costs. Although Arianespace also gets much of its rocket development funding from governments, unlike American, Russian and Chinese launch operators, it cannot count on European preferences for publicly funded satellite launches. Airbus Safran has started a programme to investigate reusable options but it is not convinced that reusing conventional rockets makes long-term economic sense. Airbus Safran is counting on productivity improvements in developing and producing the new Ariane 6 to cut the price of its launches by up to 50%. It has also begun to explore re-usable options, although European space executives are highly sceptical of SpaceX’s claims, arguing that SpaceX will need to launch 35-40 times a year to maintain a sizable production facility. However, this would only increase SpaceX’s incentive to attack a wider range of markets.

On the other hand, Ariane might gain something from the ULA imbroglio. The Pentagon has started a study to examine the feasibility of using the Ariane 5 for national security missions. This would only be a stopgap

to cover the transition from Atlas V to the Vulcan. It would also require changes in US policy. Under the current National Space Transportation Policy, the Air Force would need a White House waiver to buy an Ariane 5 launch for a US military satellite. Even

if implemented, however, this is unlikely to mark a permanent change to American policy.

SpaceX and Blue Origin: a new business model?

Cheaper access to space promises to catalyse a whole range of other space activities. It will certainly help to support the frequency needed to replenish low-orbit constellations with its components subject to regular orbital decay. More importantly, it could help to kick start ‘small sat’ based services. Low-cost launchers could encourage orbital refuelling and replenishing concepts and the development of standard structures, components, and modules that could further reduce the cost of building large space-based structures.

With millions of entrepreneurial dollars hitting the launcher business, established players have undoubtedly encountered a new force. This has traditionally been an area of determined state funding, often for military or political strategic reasons. Musk and Bezos do promise an alternative way of doing things but is this truly a ‘commercial’ enterprise?

Even if the SpaceX rockets are privately funded, the closed nature of US public contracting gives a considerable edge. While other rocket launcher service providers in Russia, China, Japan and, potentially, India have similarly closed public markets, the United States is the largest single public market for rocket launchers, which continue to provide a strong base for the national launcher industry, no matter how internally funded. The lack of a similar advantage in Europe has been a long-standing complaint of Arianespace. Unsurprisingly, Airbus Safran wants a guarantee of six European governmental launches to help underpin Ariane 6 development.

We might just be splitting hairs here: economists have begun to consider the potentially disruptive effects of the ‘new capital’ generated by the Internet entrepreneurs, which could provide enough funds to sweep aside less adaptive players in a number of technology-based markets. Musk and Bezos have selected space because they are fans and genuine innovators who have made lots of money elsewhere. There has been speculation that the ‘green’ supersonic airliner might be next on somebody’s shopping list. So, while there is sometimes truth in the view that ‘aerospace is different’, presenting a special and restrictive set of barriers to entry, not to mention needing lots of cash, no one can afford to be complacent about their position in the industry for much longer.

34 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

DEFENCEGripen E roll-out

Saab’s Gripen is back, leaner and meaner than ever before.

TIM ROBINSON reports from Linköping as Sweden starts rebuilding

its defence muscles.

i n is back, leaner and meaner than ever before.

aner and meaner than ever before

kö ing as Sweden starts rebuildingden starts rebuildingEvolution of the fittest

After a decade of thinking about expeditionary operations, Sweden is now reorienting to build up its neglected national defence capabilities as Russian

provocations now defi ne the ‘new normal’.One key part of this will be the

new Gripen E fi ghter – a Gripen with longer range, heavier payload and greater range of weapons, as well as the sensors and EW that a combat aircraft needs to survive in the post-2025 threat environment. Although the NG demonstrator that tested technologies for the E fi rst fl ew in 2008, the Gripen E now arrives at a critical time when Russian sabre-rattling and probing of its neighbours is at a high pitch. The Swedish Air Force will acquire 60 Gripen Es, with the fi rst delivery to take place in 2019.

Briefi ng specialist aviation press before the roll-out ceremony on 18 May, Maj Gen Matts Helgesson, Chief of the Swedish Air Force, explained how, in the past few years, Gripens had been busy fl ying QRAs against airborne intruders – with a high of 400 in 2013. Last year saw 330 with this year looking

similar in numbers of intrusions. Of course, not all of these intercepts are Russian

incursions but Helgesson noted the provocative nature of some of these fl ights, with no transponders and Russian fi ghters sometimes coming as close as 15m. Simulated nuclear attack runs on Stockholm by Russian bombers have also raised tensions.

To that end the Swedish Air Force, along with the rest of the country’s armed

forces, is taking a fresh interest in its core role of national defence – and this has been boosted by an increased defence budget until 2020 that was voted in last year. “It is trend-breaking,” said Helgesson, “it allows us to develop possibilities.”

BRIEFING JOURNALISTS AHEAD OF THE GRIPEN E ROLL-OUT, BUSKHE WARNED THAT IF NATO AIMED TO BOOST GDP DEFENCE SPENDING TO 2% – INDUSTRY WOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY IN DELIVERING IN SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME

Håkan Buskhe, CE

O, S

aab. (Saab)

35i f JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

belligerent Russia, might seem a cause for celebration in defence company boardrooms, Saab President and CEO Håkan Buskhe sounded a note of caution whether, in the short term, industry could cope with such a massive spending rise after years of being run-down with minimal orders.

Briefi ng journalists ahead of the Gripen E roll-out, Buskhe warned that, if NATO aimed to boost GDP defence spending to 2%, industry would have diffi culty in delivering in such a short period of time. Both US Presidential candidates, he noted, are united in favour of making Europe pay its way in defence and, if a new Washington Administration did get serious about this, then a 2% rise across the board would make for a ‘huge’ European rearmament plan said Bushke – with echoes of the 1930s. “You have to question if the defence industry can deliver such a big increased volume on short notice, having had such a long period of decreased capabilities” he said.

Of course, NATO spending goals have been set (and ignored before) but an unknown factor here is the new US President – who could very well hold Europe’s feet to the fi re. Is Europe’s defence industrial base ready for a 1930s-style crash rearmament?

While Saab foresees a NATO spending rise in Europe, it has also been spearheading a Swedish export drive, notching up the country’s biggest ever ($4.8bn) export deal with an order for 36 Gripen E/Fs with Brazil – beating off competition from rival fi ghter manufacturers. This deal includes substantial technology transfer – with Brazil taking the lead in developing the two-seat version which will be equipped with a wide-area display. The technology transfer, which includes manufacturing, design and fl ight test work, effectively gives Brazil the capability to develop its own modern fi ghters in the future.

RAeS

A Gripen-C takes off on a demo fl ight during the roll-out.(Images ©RAeS including background image on pages 36-37).

First in service with Meteor

This year, the Swedish Air Force Gripen C/Ds are in the process of fi elding the ‘game-changing’ MBDA BVRAAM – the fi rst country to do so. This is part of a MS20 software update that also includes Boeing Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) integration, a recce pod, digital close-air support and improved logistics and maintenance.

The Swedish AF is also working to rebuild its C2 and base operations, and this year is conducting an operational evaluation of its fi rst NH90 ASW helicopter – a capability gap that became highly apparent in 2014 when an unknown submarine (presumed to be Russian) was spotted in Swedish waters.

Sweden is also boosting its ground-based air defence, along with two new submarines, a battlegroup and developing an offensive cyber capability. The Swedish Air Force, meanwhile, is reconstituting its dispersed airbase strategy and practising deploying to austere locations – again another sign of how seriously it is taking the ‘new normal’ of international security.

Although Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist, appraising the press on 17 May of the current security situation, ruled out joining NATO – the country is aiming to deepen partnerships with NATO nations and friendly neighbours – particularly Finland. Joint

exercises, agreements on diversion airbases, secure communication links

and co-operation on a common air picture are some of the ways in which Finnish and Swedish Air Forces are now working together. Finland, too, on the front line of Cold War 2.0 with a more aggressive Moscow, is thus a natural partner with Sweden.

Can industry cope with rapid rearmament?

Yet, while increased defence spending in Sweden and elsewhere in Europe as nations respond to a

Export success

36 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

This model, says Saab, could also work for India, where the dogfi ght to supply the IAF with fi ghters is now back on after the collapse of the MRCA programme and defence companies watching the negotiations with Dassault with interest. India’s fi ghter shortfall beyond the 35 Rafales it is now in talks for and its large, aging MiG-21 fl eet means that, even though the initial number is small, this could rise substantially. Saab thus sees its Brazil model fi tting New Dehli’s ‘Make In India’ policy perfectly.

More widely, there still remain large numbers of aging light combat aircraft (such as F-5s) worldwide – giving Saab the scope to build on the Gripen export success it has already achieved with the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa and Thailand. Overall, says Saab chief Buskhe, his target is 400-450 Gripen sales worldwide.

Potential new Gripen customers include Croatia, where a recent election delayed negotiations for a buy of eight, as well as Bulgaria, Belgium, Columbia, Finland and the aforementioned India.

Enter the Echo

The latest version of the Gripen, the E, which will be delivered to the Swedish (and Brazilian) Air Force in 2019, with IOC scheduled for 2021, may look like a standard Gripen but is a very different beast under the skin. Increased fuel capacity by 40% gives it longer range and loiter time and also meant the undercarriage was moved and redesigned. Extra hardpoints now mean the Gripen has ten for weapons, fuel tanks or targeting/recce pods – giving the Gripen a bigger punch. A new engine, the F414G, also provides 20% more thrust for this heavier variant.

It also has much improved sensors – with a Raven ES-05 AESA radar from Selex Galileo (now Leonardo). A repositionable swashplate that allows the radar to see 110° to the sides – giving the E (along with Meteor) a big advantage in BVR missile combat. The E also fi elds a Selex ES Skyward-G passive IRST sensor for radar-off engagements and to fi nd stealth targets – for tomorrow’s air combat where datalinks will see fi ghters silently stalk each other before getting the fi rst kills.

The Gripen’s already impressive electronic warfare (EW) suite has also been improved. Unlike

the F-35, which relies on stealth to survive in a contested combat environment, Gripen will rely on its EW systems to hide, confuse and decoy the enemy. This suite (and its ability to be continually improved against current and evolving threats) makes the Gripen much more of a ‘balanced’ fi ghter, says Saab. On the Gripen E, the EW suite will also be enhanced with a missile warning and awareness system.

Finally, the Gripen E will also make use of Selex ES’s BriteCloud active decoy system. All these sensors and defensive aids represent a leap in situational awareness and survivability for the Gripen pilot – which are then pulled together with an advanced HMI and ‘sensor fusion’.

Smarter than the average fi ghter?

However, probably the advance that Saab is most proud of with the new Gripen is in its avionics architecture. With the Gripen E, it has started from scratch and created a distributed integrated modular avionics system that separates the 10% of core fl ight critical management codebase from 90% of tactical management code. The result is that the avionics are hardware agnostic and that the tactical management part is now effectively like a smartphone – able to receive new ‘apps’ (for example for radars, sensors or weapon integration) – without the need to re-certify the fl ight critical software. This means that upgrades to functionality, displays, computers, sensors and weapons should be easier, cheaper and faster in the future. Saab already practises a process of ‘small steps’ of upgrades (MS20 being the latest) with the Gripen, rather than big MLUs (mid-life upgrades) and this should allow its capability to be rapidly upgraded through software even faster. For instance, having made Gripen’s tactical management systems non-hardware dependent, it is not inconceivable that the wide area display (WAD) currently under development for the Brazilian Air Force, could fi nd its way back into Swedish AFs Gripen Es.

Production effi ciencies

Another breakthrough on the Gripen E, says Saab, is in the full-scale use of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) – to virtually test and verify complex aircraft systems using simulation tools and

All images SAAB including the main on page 34.

DEFENCEGripen E roll-out

Scenes from the Gripen-E roll-out held in Linköping, Sweden.

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digital engineering – with around 50,000 paper documents and drawings now replaced with a single digital model. While certainly not unique (and indeed is a must in the civil airliner world today), this time Saab has pushed the envelope further. The results, it says, have been dramatic. For instance, the standard time of ‘learning how to produce an aircraft at optimum effi ciency’ usually happens after the 180th aircraft has rolled off the production line (or T180). Saab’s goal with MBSE was to bring it down to T30 and it has actually exceeded this. Says Lars Ydreskog, Head of Operations: “It was amazing – we couldn’t believe it.” All told, these effi ciencies mean that Saab’s touted 18 months to delivery is now only limited by long-lead items – and could theoretically be even shorter in the future.

This testing and verifi cation process has also enabled the company to slash the fl ight test programme by two-thirds – although it has to be said, there must be considerable read-over from previous Gripen fl ight test programmes. Four aircraft will take part in the test campaign (including one Brazilian jet), with a fi rst fl ight aimed at around the end of the year.

Beyond the Gripen E

As well as the new Gripen E, Saab also expects there to be a healthy global market for the C/D variants in the future and plans to keep modernising them as much as possible. While some of the structural advancements of the E (eg extra fuel) will be impossible to retrofi t, Saab sees some avionics improvements fl owing back into the C models to keep them as current as possible. Indeed, in ten years’ time the Swedish Air Force will begin retiring its 97 C/D models. Currently it has made ‘no decision’ what to do with these, according to the SwAF chief but they could represent a potential bargain for smaller air forces looking to purchase fi ghters in that timeframe. However, intriguingly, in 2013 Saab announced it was mulling an unmanned Gripen variant. “We see manned/unmanned teaming in the future” said SwAF Chief Helgesson. Could then these Gripen Cs be turned into UCAV wingmen for Swedish AF Gripen Es?

As well as unmanned Gripen concepts, Saab is also working on the Sea Gripen – a potential solution

All images SAAB

for Brazil’s carrier-based air power. Having studied the concept, Saab is now confi dent that it is feasible – the Gripen having been designed for no-fl are landings on short roads as part of Swedish defence strategy.

Finally, the company is looking further beyond the Gripen itself and, at one of the briefi ngs, showed a notional concept of a twin-tailed manned/unmanned Future Combat Air System (FCAS). At a time when the only future combat aircraft beyond Eurofi ghter and Rafale is the Anglo-French UCAV, it is noteworthy that a company in a country of 9.5m thinks it is feasible (and worthwhile) to consider developing a sixth-generation fi ghter.

Full Saab ahead

There is no doubt that the roll-out of the Gripen E, only two years after it was launched, comes at a critical time for Sweden as it rebuilds its neglected national defence when the ‘new normal’ of an unpredictable Russia and arc of instability across Middle East and North Africa reshape international relations. While IOC for the Gripen E in SwAF service is still fi ve years off, the latest MS20 update with Meteor and SDBs will hold the line against evolving threats.

The new Gripen also represents fresh opportunities for further defence sales and exports for Sweden for those countries unable to afford, or restricted from buying F-35s, Eurofi ghters, Super Hornets or Rafales – and the ability to mix and match a wide variety of weapons. Saab’s technology transfer and partnership with Brazil in providing the opportunity for a country to develop its aerospace sector to the next level, also creates a highly attractive proposition and industrial model that could be replicated elsewhere.

Finally, perhaps the best evidence that the company has indeed ‘broken the combat aircraft cost curve’ with Gripen, was its selection by Boeing to partner it on developing a clean-sheet jet trainer for the US Air Force’s T-X requirement. Despite Boeing’s vast design and engineering resources, it seems to have recognised that tapping into Saab’s skill and experience in designing affordable, yet capable, fi ghters could give it the edge in this huge training competition.

SAAB IS ALSO WORKING ON THE SEA GRIPEN – A POTENTIAL SOLUTION FOR BRAZIL’S CARRIER-BASED AIR POWER. HAVING STUDIED THE CONCEPT, SAAB IS NOW CONFIDENT THAT IT IS FEASIBLE

38 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

AEROSPACEBoeing 100th Anniversary

In a year that marks 100 years of Boeing, who better to look back with than its chief historian, Michael

Lombardi, who together with a small team, runs the company’s Corporate Archives, a private collection of unique documents, papers, photos, fi lms, models and artefacts that tells the story of this aerospace giant, from its humble beginnings in Washington State in the US.

The Boeing Archives

Thanks to acquisitions and mergers over its long history, the Corporate Archives are now spread over three locations, says Lombardi. “I’m based at the main corporate archives in Seattle. It’s about 17,000 sq ft. Here are the records of the Boeing Company proper going back to about 1910 or thereabout, about the time that Mr Boeing had bought the properties. We have those records when he bought the properties that he would later use to start his company, essentially what’s now the famous Red Barn.”

As well as Puget Sound, the archive also has collections in Los Angeles and St Louis. Notes Lombardi: “What is interesting is the greatest part of our history, because of the various mergers between North American Aviation and Douglas Aircraft and Hughes, is now in California. We also have a historian and his assistant in Saint Louis.” Lombardi, who has been the offi cial Boeing ‘chief historian’ for 20 years, has a love for one particular part of the company. “One of my personal passions for about the last 20 years has been saving the history of North American Aviation, which Boeing purchased from Rockwell in 1996. The company that made the famous P-51 Mustang, the F-86 and the T-6, the Texan, known as the Harvard when it served with

the RAF. That’s been my passion to save that history. We’ve got a tremendous

collection of records that we found in all sorts of nooks

and crannies and brought together and saved it.”

All told it all adds up to a staggeringly huge collection, he explains: “We’ve got probably 4,000,000 photographs. I’d say about 20,000 reels of motion picture fi lm. I think we’ve got 10,000ft of the Seattle archive housing manuscript records. Those are old brochures and correspondence, contracts, all the typewritten and printed records. It goes back to the beginning. A wonderful collection of the history of the US aerospace industry.”

However, despite the size of the archive, there are still gaps. Says Lombardi: “In particular, Howard Hughes. His aviation empire was dispersed and we’re still trying to locate that. That is one of the things we’ve been looking for because, as far as corporate genealogy, we are the inheritors of parts of his company that made his famous aircraft like the H-1 Racer and the Spruce Goose. We have none of those records on those. That’s one of the things that we’re looking for.”

Preserving the past

Interestingly, today the Corporate Archive is required not only to save physical documents and papers from the present day but now also emails, videos and websites that are created by Boeing. The digital age, says Lombardi, is bringing its own big challenges. “There are two parts of that,” he says. “There is the part of what do we do with the present collection which is in all these different formats,

On 15 July 2016, the Boeing Company celebrates 100 years of pushingthe boundaries of fl ight. TIM ROBINSON talks to MICHAEL J LOMBARDI,Director of Boeing Archives, on the hidden gems from its amazing history.

Keeper of the flameKeeper of the flame

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HARD WORK AND SCIENCE CAN LICK ANY PROBLEMBill Boeing

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JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com 39

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whether it’s 16mm fi lm or on a fl oppy disk or what have you. We’ve got these dozens and dozens of different formats. It is just really complex. I think that the real great challenge of archiving these days is how to keep up with that and keep it from deteriorating. What are the decisions and strategies about moving that to a digital platform, then what do you do with the originals? Those are all questions that we’re wrestling with.”

He adds: “The other really great challenge now is collecting what we call ‘born digital records’. Everything today is a digital record. It isn’t on paper anymore. Drawings are done on CATIA and such. How do we capture that? Additionally, probably the biggest problem we have today is volume because digital records are so easy to create, we create a lot of them. In the past, when somebody would write a letter, it would take a lot of time and effort. It was always something that was meaningful. When we have correspondents’ fi les of letters, all those letters have some important information. Now, with email, 90% of our notes on email are just meaningless. How do you weed through that and capture those important nuggets while getting rid of that huge volume of those things you don’t need at all?”

But this problem is not unique to Boeing. “It is an issue throughout the world of archiving, that really from the beginning of the Internet and up until right about now, there’s going to be a period that future historians will call a ‘digital dark age’, because we didn’t have a strategy to capture history.”

A working archive

But these collections are not a stale repository, gathering dust – they are an active part of the company, helping Boeing engineers today design the future of tomorrow. Says Lombardi: “That’s what I see is the primary use for what we do. We just cannot have an archive that is a collection of our treasures that we roll out whenever there is a centennial. Every day, we’ve got to contribute, we’ve got to provide value to the corporation. History has to work for the company. I bring our engineers in here and say: “Here is the collective knowledge of

all those brilliant engineers that came before you, so don’t reinvent the wheel. Take this knowledge and build on it.”

This amassed store of technical knowledge then is a valuble working resource for the company. The highly secretive X-37B spaceplane, for example, drew on the archives’ X-15 documents.

Reveals Lombardi: “In designing and building the X-37B, one of the challenges was that, before re-entry, they have to have all the fuel out of the vehicle. They couldn’t fi gure out how to do one part of that. I can’t get too specifi c but they came here and said: “You know, when North American built the X-15 rocket plane, they had obviously solved it. What did they do?” They went back and looked at the X-15 to support one of the design issues.”

Another example was the ill-fated Sonic Cruiser where, drawing on information in the archives on the XB-70’s canards was used to support the design. Lombardi also points to the company’s hydrogen-power Phantom Eye UAV – which builds heavily on its Condor UAV from the 1980s.

Using the archive in ths way and “going back to the structures and design philosophies and the testing on that, these sorts of things save our engineers months and months of work and millions of dollars,” explains Lombardi.

The DNA of Boeing

As well as aiding today’s engineers tackle technical problems by consulting the past, Lombardi also sees the archive as critical in passing on the ‘can do’ culture set by Bill Boeing himself. “I think a big part of what my job is, is to understand what that culture is and to pass it on, to make sure that that gets passed on,” he says. “For some people, they feel what Boeing does is sometimes said to be impossible but that’s what we do. Those kind of ideas and to tell those stories to reinforce that, with a new generation of employees to make sure that that DNA and that culture is handed down, is to ensure that The Boeing Company will be here at least another 100 years.”

Unwritten personal stories

But, among this vast archive of documents, papers, models and the rarest and most valuable items, says Lombardi, the personal records and letters of some of the company’s pioneers and employees down the years. “What I think is the rarest and most

Stealth ahead of its timeA 1960’s Boeing concept for a composite low-observable aircraft for the US Army, the Model 853 Quiet Bird, has only just been rediscovered.

Boeing Model 326 – a six-engined Super Clipper 100-seat fl ying boat concept from 1938.

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36 AEROSPACE / JANUARY 2016

AEROSPACEBoeing 100th Anniversary

captivating items that we have are the personal letters of some of these very famous people in company history. Just reading their letters and seeing their handwritten notes and then thinking that these people are long gone, to me, that is the most wonderful. It just really brings history to life, with that realisation that there were real people that did these amazing things throughout the last 100 years. They got up in the morning and had their breakfast, drank their coffee, came to work. It’s just like we do today and it really makes that story come to life.”

Indeed, in collecting more stories from Boeing personnel in this centenary year, other personal ancedotes and hidden histories have come to light. “It’s the stories you don’t ever hear, the things that are never written down. I think you could make several great adventure movies about what aircraft salesmen go through.” The switch from military customers to selling to civil airlines around the world in the 1950s produced lots of Indiana Jones-style escapades reveals Lombardi. “There are stories of just starting from scratch, of going to these third world countries to sell aircraft and being shot at by rebels or eating bad food or dealing with fi nding themselves in some risky places and things. It’s really amazing. That is the thing – you just don’t see those in the newspapers or the offi cial documents.”

Personal interviews with test pilots also provide fascinating insights. ”You can read about a particular fl ight test and it’ll say something like: “At this point, this anomaly happened,” and that is it but ,when you talk to them and get their, “Wow! There was this loud bang and the plane did this,” they are just priceless,” he enthuses.

Taking a gamble

One thing clear from studying Boeing’s history, says Lombardi, is that it is a company that embraced risk in the pursuit of aeronautical excellence. ‘Betting the company’ on the 747 is perhaps the best known example but Lombardi points to others. “I think that is really what characterises Boeing. People say: “Why is Boeing still here after 100 years?” That’s really it, that willingness to take that risk to bet the company. There was several instances of that.” He says: “In 1927, Bill Boeing decided to jump into the airline business. That was tremendously risky. That proved to be very successful. Then, in 1934, the B-17 was a tremendous risk. Boeing built the prototype with the company’s own funds. Then, the prototype crashed. Boeing was out of the competition. But, because they took the risk to make a very innovative and very forward-looking bomber, it became the must-have aircraft which saved the company.”

“Boeing took another huge risk with the B-47. The radical concept of making it a swept-wing jet and hanging the engines off of the wings in pods. That was completely unheard of and very risky but it was such a great performer that it became the aircraft that the Air Force had to have and established the basic design for all the jets that Boeing and Airbus build today.”

In civil aircraft too, the view from some quarters on the other side of the Atlantic that Boeing easily capitalised on the de Havilland Comet accidents to surge ahead with the Dash-80/707 is not borne out by the records. Observes Lombardi: “When the decision was made to build the Dash 80, the prototype for the 707, Boeing had no customers showing any interest in a jet transport. The Comet had come out early but it had those very dramatic, catastrophic accidents and was grounded. With that, there was a reputation that jets weren’t safe. The airlines were very happy with their Douglas propliners and their Lockheed Constellations. There was no market for jets yet. But Boeing made that conscious decision, saying that: “The future is going to be a jet transport, so we’re going to build one and make everybody believe that.” They defi ned the future by doing that.”

Half-section mock-up of Boeing’s SST under construction. After the project was axed, at one point the mock-up ended up in a church in Florida. The forward section is now at Seattle’s Museum of Flight.

Wind-tunnel models, including the Model 450 (centre) which became the B-47. Lombardi argues that, thanks to the podded engines and swept wing setting, the dominant confi guration for the next 70 years, the B-47 may well be the most signifi cant aircraft in history after the Wright Flyer.

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41JULY 2016@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com i f

Magnifi cent failures

While the centenary of Boeing this year has reminded everyone of Boeing’s most successful and iconic aircraft, like the 707, 747, B-29 and B-52 (as well as legacy company aircraft and spacecraft), perhaps one of the most interesting parts of the archive is the documents, images and plans of concepts that didn’t make it.

Says Lombardi: “A lot of times, what we’ve seen are the concepts they developed were ahead of their time, that the customer couldn’t grasp what that was or what it could be. We found not too long ago some records that, in the early 1960s, engineers in Boeing Wichita made a composite design for a small fi ghter that was a fi rst generation stealth aircaft. This is before the F-117, much before that. Nobody was interested because they didn’t see the need for an aircraft that could avoid radar.”

Another great ‘what-if’, says Lombardi was Boeing’s Supersonic Transport (SST) the sleek 200-seat US answer to Concorde which, at the time, was a higher company priority than the 747. He notes: “That was the greatest, most important programme at Boeing in the late 1960s, actually in the US. There was that friendly competition with the Concorde and then, of course, with the Soviet Union with its Tu-144. Wonderful aircraft but, of course, world events changed and it actually worked out best for Boeing that we didn’t build it and went forward with the 747.

Along with the SST, X-20 and Sonic Cruiser, as ‘what-if’s from the company’s history, Lombardi also points to pre-war seaplane airliner designs that were cut short by WW2. “Of course things changed drastically but giant fl ying boats twice the size of the Boeing 314 Clipper were being planned. Just beautiful aircraft, the size of the Spruce Goose.”

Intepreting history

In this age of instant online information, search engines and digital documents – it well might be

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asked, why is a human even needed? Lombardi explains his role: “What’s so different about what we do here is that it’s not just a collection. We have a handful of historians who can interpret it. Part of what I do is I can understand an engineer, I can understand a test pilot, what their job is and what they’re working on. I can then interpret that to say: “Here’s what I think you need. Here’s what’s going to help you.” You’re not going to fi nd that just searching on the computer. You really need that experience. I think that’s a really important part of this, that I think it’s missed is that you need good historians and libraries need good librarians that can help researchers.”

Inspiring future generations

But Boeing’s archive is not just important as a repository of company culture and DNA. It also, as a treasure trove of US aviation history, plays a wider role in inspiring future generations. As well as visits from new Boeing engineers and personnel, its partnership with the Seattle Museum of Flight and inquiries from authors, academics and journalists, Lombardi also says that he regularly receives letters and emails from young people interested in aerospace. Many of of these may not even end up working at Boeing. Says Lombardi: “As a young person, I would write letters to NASA. I would write letters to the airplane manufacturers and ask for pictures. One of the things that really hits home for me is that I wrote a letter to Boeing and received this wonderful package of photographs and a nice note from the historian Harl Brackin, who is now my predecessor. I always remember when I was a child how much that meant to me. I always think of that when I get a note from a young person”.

“Now, I’m the person sending out pictures and letters to young people. I want to infect as many young people I can with the aviation bug. I feel I’m doing my part to keep spreading that bug and keeping young people interested in the aerospace industry. I think that that’s really important.“

Mike Lombardi and his team then, are not just keeping the fl ame burning for Boeing’s history. 100 years on, they are also helping to light new ones.

The fi rst B-17 (Model 299) prototype crashed yet, at one point in WW2, Boeing was building 15 bombers a day at its plant in Seattle.

Technical information about the North American X-15 helped Boeing engineers designing the X-37B spaceplane.

Sponsored by Boeing to mark its 100th year, the Above and Beyond interactive exhibition on fl ight is currently on at the National Maritime Museum until 27 August.

A glimpse into the NEXT 100 years

This year the SBAC, predecessor of ADS and the founder of what is nowFarnborough International Air Show, celebrates its centenary. The AviationHistorian’s NICK STROUD looks back at an aerial oddity from the 1968Farnborough Air Show.

the forward pod, with a single 100hp piston engine being fi tted on the rear pod to power the elaborate electrical display lighting mounted on the tubular structure. Without the scale model it would have been almost impossible to explain.

The V-Liner was the brainchild of Lewis McCarty Jr, President of the Washington D-based Central Aircraft Manufacturing Company (CAMCO), a company with its origins in the fl edgling Chinese aircraft industry of the 1930s. A designer with experience in experimental aircraft, McCarty’s previous creations included the de Lackner HZ-1 Aerocycle of 1954, a one-man heli-platform for use with the US Army, as well as a number of rather more conventional fl ying-boats and landplanes of the 1930s and 1940s. McCarty’s idea for the V-Liner was to create a machine for aerial advertising, traffi c control, geomagnetic survey and

42 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

GENERAL AVIATIONAerial advertising peculiarity

From left: The CAMCO V-Liner, its creators, a scaled model kept at Farnborough, an artist’s impression of how a fl ying CAMCO V-Liner would look in the air, a technical drawing of the CAMCO V-Liner. (All photos via the author). This article previously appeared in Issue 1 of The Aviation Historian and is reproduced with permission.

For the casual visitor strolling among the Harriers, VC10s and Beagle Pups at the 1968 SBAC Show at Farnborough, the rather ambitious item on display in the grass area near the static park must have

come as something of a surprise; it certainly raised an eyebrow or two among press and public alike over the week of the exhibition. Set in a glass box some 25ft long sat a highly accurate scale model of the CAMCO V-Liner, a bizarre amphibian aircraft designed specifi cally for aerial advertising, which, to add further to the absurdity of the whole endeavour, was strictly forbidden in the UK.

Essentially two fuselage pods fi tted with wings and connected by more than 300ft of V-shaped aluminium alloy tubing, the fl oat-equipped contraption was to be powered by a pair of 375hp Rolls-Royce licence-built Continental O-520 engines mounted on

The Flying Billboard

43i f JULY 2016

A BIZARRE AMPHIBIAN AIRCRAFT DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR AERIAL ADVERTISING, WHICH, TO ADD FURTHER TO THE ABSURDITY OF THE WHOLE ENDEAVOUR, WAS STRICTLY FORBIDDEN IN THE UK

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three-word phrases at the rate of 90 words a minute on both sides. The electronic message-generating equipment, to be provided by long-established British fi rm Mullard, would incorporate 40 miles of wiring and 3,348 bulbs within the 2,193ft of aluminium tubing. The V-Liner would cruise at a speed of around 50mph and Slingsby estimated that it would be able to take off in less than its own length – not as surprising as it sounds when you realise that the extraordinary machine was some 378ft long!

Alongside the model at Farnborough were full-size elements of the hoarding, which dwarfed visitors and gave some impression of the sheer size of the four-ton machine once it had been completed. Although its Farnborough appearance, albeit in scale model form, had aroused the curiosity of visitors, the idea – perhaps unsurprisingly – never saw fruition, despite test fl ights of a 1/10th-scale model reportedly being made at Elvington in Yorkshire. Only a matter of weeks after the SBAC Show, the Slingsby factory at Kirbymoorside was destroyed in a fi re on 18 November, 1968 and, although the company resumed its manufacture of world-class gliders in 1969, the production of the V-Liner was dropped, the ashes of the outlandish 370ft-long aluminium-tubing amphibian aerial advertising machine being swept away with those of the Slingsby factory.

even, as was claimed at the time, television licence-dodging detection. The whole concept was to be a development of the airship advertising principle, in which messages were displayed by a light matrix attached to the underside of an airship, a concept which was proving increasingly uneconomical in the late 1960s owing to high capital and running costs and excessive manpower demands. Contemporary market research, mainly in the US and Canada, nevertheless revealed a continued demand for the idea and a four-year $1.5m development and design programme in the US, Canada and the UK was put in place.

CAMCO began to cast around for suitable partners to build the design and, after talking to representatives from seven nations, settled on the UK, the American company claiming that the British government had emphasised its policies encouraging advanced technology, offered prototype cost savings and competitive production costs and had a tradition of successful innovation. It no doubt helped that Britain’s Ministry of Technology offered a grant to the chosen sub-contractor if it was in the UK, thereby offsetting a large chunk of CAMCO’s development costs.

Wild optmism

Based at Kirbymoorside in Yorkshire, Slingsby Aircraft had long been established as the UK’s foremost glider manufacturer and, as a small and versatile company with experience in wood, metal and glass-fi bre structures, it was seen as an attractive proposition for the construction of the V-Liner. The Ministry of Technology was hopeful of a follow-on contract and issued press releases stating that a £2m export programme was in the offi ng, for which Slingsby would be called on to deliver some 42 V-Liners over four years, with plans for a wildly optimistic 480 to be delivered within six years. The V-Liner was to be available only on long lease through CAMCO, the oddball machine being built exclusively for the American company. By the late summer of 1968 two of North America’s largest companies, the First National Bank and Canada Dry, had signed for the services of the fi rst two V-Liners built.

The triangular-section hoarding of the aircraft was to carry illuminated signs which would fl ash

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45JULY 2016

Afterburner

46 Message from RAeS- President“One of the questions I am often asked is: “What is the theme for your Presidency?” The short answer is that there are a number of issues I would wish to highlight but none of which would score as a particularly original slant on the work of the Society!”

- Chief Executive“A new presidential year heralds changes to both the Council and the Board of Trustees (see p 53). On behalf of all the staff I would very much like to thank those who are ‘retiring’ for contributing so much of their valuable time and expertise in the past. For those starting out, I am sure you will receive a warm welcome to the ranks.”

48 Book ReviewModel Planes.

50 Library AdditionsBooks submitted to the National Aerospace Library.

52 RAeS Gala BanquetTo mark the Society’s 150th anniversary, a Gala Banquet was held at Guildhall London in the presence of HRH Prince Michael of Kent.

54 The RAeS: Part 7 – Expansion

As part of the Society’s celebrations of its 150th anniversary we publish the seventh in a series of articles covering the history and development of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

56 DiaryFind out when and where around the world the latest aeronautical and aerospace lectures and events are happening.

57 RAeS Council 2016-2017

58 Delivering the DreamA commemorative book has been produced to celebrate the aeronautical innovation and progress that has taken place during the 150-year history of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

60 ElectionsNew Society members elected in the past month.

www.aerosociety.com

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Diary9 SeptemberHumanitarian Aerospace – A New Civil-Military InterfaceAir Power Group Conference

A Royal Air Force C-130J Hercules at RAF Brize Norton is loaded with humanitarian aid from the Department for International Development, that was destined for displaced Yazidi people on Mount Sinjar in Iraq in 2014. MoD/Crown copyright 2016.

46

Message from RAeSOUR PRESIDENT

Prof Chris Atkin

THE SOCIETY CAN SEEM LIKE A CROWDED PLACE, WITH NUMEROUS COMMITTEES ALREADY POPULATED WITH THE ‘GREAT AND THE GOOD’ BUT THERE IS SO MUCH MORE WE COULD DO WITH MORE FIREPOWER

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

Afterburner

One of the questions I am often asked is: “What is the theme for your Presidency?” The short answer is that there are a number of issues I would wish to highlight but none of which would score as a particularly original slant on the work of the Society!

My June message made fairly clear that one of my priorities is to evangelise the benefi ts to individuals of active participation in the Society’s activities. There is, of course, a collective benefi t from members throwing their own experience, skills and enthusiasm into the pot: because, ultimately, the Society can be no better or worse than its membership. At the Gala Banquet in May I highlighted this continuity of expertise and commitment as the Society’s main challenge for the future. However, continuity does not mean the same individuals having to carry on forever! Our recent election saw a signifi cant refresh in Council membership and, chatting after the AGM, I was struck by how positive the unsuccessful candidates were about the credentials and the enthusiasm of those elected. A steady turnover of personnel is essential to maintain the quality, reputation and energy of the Society’s activities at all levels; but this requires new blood to put itself forward. The Society can seem like a crowded place, with numerous committees already populated with the ‘great and the good’ but there is so much more we could do with more fi repower.

Of course it’s not that easy for those early in their career, or at the height of their technical output, to fi nd time to get involved. So there is also a message for senior managers, to do more to free

up their young (and not-so-young) professionals to take advantage of the development opportunities offered by the Society: contribution to the body of knowledge, by means of conferences or articles; involvement in setting and promoting standards, through mentoring or professional review; all-round shaping of a discipline through membership of a specialist group; securing the future of the profession by supporting our many outreach activities; as well as the networking opportunities offered by the 500-odd functions which are held each year around the world.

The third benefi ciary of such activity is employers themselves. We can sometimes kid ourselves, in our large and diverse enterprises, that we don’t need to expose our teams to external infl uences to develop their knowledge and skills. This is a myth, of course, one which is exposed the minute we step outside the boundaries of our own corporate environment. We can also be lulled into leadership complacency by the modern HR mantra that responsibility lies with the individual to develop and manage his or her career: yet we all know that really successful organisations don’t operate on this basis! The Society offers us, as leaders, a means of developing our people, our businesses and our professional community. A win-win-win.

There are other issues I would like to promote, of course. As someone who has spent nearly 30 years working on technologies to reduce aircraft fuel burn, I often wonder how we can accelerate the process of getting innovation onto the aircraft. But more on this in future editions of AEROSPACE!

TRUSTEE TALK

A number of detailed, technical amendments to our By-Laws were submitted to our membership at large at a Special General Meeting in May.

The Society’s governance has been written to ensure that, as far as possible, the governing Board of Trustees consists of a blend of experienced members and ‘new blood’. This year three trustees stood down: Jo Lindsay, Bill Tyack and Howard Wheeldon and I extend my thanks to all three for their outstanding service to the Society. All new Trustees are elected by Council and this year it has elected for a three-year term ACM Sir Stephen Dalton RAF Rtd (the new President-Elect), Lt Cdr Richard Gearing RN (Council member) and Sarah Moynihan (External Trustee) as the replacement Board members, all of whom will bring valuable additional skills to the Board.

The run up to the AGM is always a busy time for the Trustees and this year was no different. A number of detailed, technical amendments to our By-Laws were submitted to our membership at large at a Special General Meeting in May. Following their unanimous approval, the revised By-Laws will

now be formally submitted to the Privy Council.The Board has also been reviewing the Society’s

requirements in relation to ‘Best Practice’ Internal Audit, and it has now agreed the full terms of reference for the new Audit Committee. I am very pleased to be able to announce that Sir John O’Reilly has been appointed as the fi rst Chairman of this Committee.

Again in line with Charity Commission ‘Best Practice’, during March the Trustees completed its own annual Board Effectiveness questionnaire. The results of this were reviewed and discussed at our June meeting and steps have already been taken further to improve our annual business process cycle.

Finally, the Trustees have reviewed and approved the Membership Committee’s comprehensive update to the Membership Handbook.

Phil BoyleChair, BoT

Simon C Luxmoore

AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF CELEBRATING TOGETHER WAS THE INITIATIVE OF FIVE BRANCHES FROM THE ANGLIAN REGION JOINTLY HOSTING AN AFTERNOON CELEBRATING AEROSPACE INNOVATION

OUR CHIEF EXECUTIVE

JULY 2016 47

Few would argue that the last two months have seen some wonderful celebrations with the Guildhall Banquet an appropriate highlight, together with the celebration lunch for Past Presidents and Hardingham Sword winners and topped off by an excellent presentation by Bill Tyack of the fi rst 150 years of the Society. At the time of writing we are looking forward to our ‘Senior members’ lunch, an event to which we have invited those members who have been with the Society for more than 70 years! Extraordinary, you might think, but the numbers are such that this was the level at which we felt it appropriate to issue invitations.

Branches have enthusiastically embraced the opportunity to celebrate the Society’s 150 years. 60 delegates representing 34 Branches attended the Branches Conference in Hamilton Place on 13 May, enjoying short presentations which both highlighted the Society’s history and looked forward to a promising future. The conference concluded with a gala dinner.

An excellent example of celebrating together was the initiative of fi ve Branches from the East Anglian region jointly hosting an afternoon celebrating aerospace innovation. Also looking to the future, the East of England Aerospace Innovation Expo took place on 2 June, kindly hosted by Cranfi eld University.

At the end of May, the Society organised a lunch for members of the national and specialist trade press to hear what some of our air power expert members thought they might expect to see at this year’s Farnborough Air Show. Hosted by President-Elect ACM Sir Stephen Dalton, journalists heard some short introductory speeches on different aspects of the military air sector before having the chance to ask the Society’s experts a broad range of questions. The lunch has already generated some Society press coverage – including in The Telegraph – and we have the intention to repeat the format for other sectors of the aerospace industry in the future.

In May, the RAeS Foundation Committee met to review the projects it is funding (just under £60k) in 2016. Activities supported by the Foundation include the purchase of a Desktop Wind Tunnel (Society’s Outreach programme), continued support of the successful Cool Aeronautics Programme, redevelopment of the Careers In Aerospace Website, purchase of a 3D printer (to be used at YP events, etc.), development of an online mentoring training programme and supporting a Diversity Engagement Workshop. All these projects support the Society’s charitable objectives. The Foundation main source of funding is

through Gift Aid donated by members on their membership subscriptions; the Committee thanks these members for their continuing support and hopes that other members who have not already given Gift Aid (on their subscriptions) will do so. For every £100 paid by the member the Society can receive a further £25 from HMRC; this will enable the Foundation to continue to support the Society’s charitable objectives (including the NAL and Centennial Scholarship Fund).

Andrew Tyler, Chief Executive, Europe for Northrop Grumman, delivered the latest Corporate Partner briefi ng during June and took the opportunity to host a dinner following that event. Andrew and his team have been very strong supporters of the Society in recent years and the evening was a great success.

At the time of writing, an upcoming highlight on the Branch Annual Dinner circuit is the 52nd Rolls-Royce Derby Branch annual Sir Henry Royce lecture and dinner where the guest speaker is Colin Smith CBE HonFRAeS, Group President of Rolls-Royce but, until recently, the Director of Engineering and Technology at Rolls-Royce and a ten-year-plus veteran of their main Board. I wouldn’t miss this for the world, as they say, Colin has been and continues to be a Society stalwart over very many years and, until only a few years ago, sat on the Council. This promises to be an entertaining evening!

A new presidential year heralds changes to both the Council and the Board of Trustees (see p 53). On behalf of all the staff I would very much like to thank those who are ‘retiring’ for contributing so much of their valuable time and expertise in the past. For those starting out, I am sure you will receive a warm welcome to the ranks.

Just a few of the attendees at the Past Presidents lunch. From left: Jenny Body, President 2013-2014; Geoff Howell, President 1990-1991; Gordon McCoombe, President 1991-1992 and Dr Graham Coleman, 2009-2010 winner of the Hardingham Sword.

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Book Reviews

AEROSPACE / JULY 201648

Afterburner

Lycoming Thunderbolt 2. Bob Adams.

In fact, despite its softback construction, this is a lovely book, clearly printed, easy to read and superbly illustrated

MODEL PLANES

launch at the top of the towline. Consequently, there is still much research and design effort into aerofoil sections for the competition model aeroplane and the rationale behind this effort is a major subject of the book under review.

Starting from the properties of the atmosphere and the mechanism of lift generation by an aerofoil, the reader is introduced to Bernoulli’s theorem and vortex fl ow and taken chapter by chapter through those facets of wing design relevant to good performance at low Reynold’s number. The relationship of wing chord Reynold’s number to aspect ratio for a given surface area is discussed, as are surface fi nish, turbulation, ‘invigoration’ (multiple span-wise trips aft of the turbulator), drag estimation and glide performance. Straightforward calculations are demonstrated and the reader encouraged to emulate these.

Throughout, all aspects are fully illustrated with photographs and diagrams together with the results of wind-tunnel tests at model scales.

The fi nal chapters of the book are devoted to aerofoil geometry, with scaled drawings of 48 aerofoil sections for direct copying by scanner or Xerox. The plotting of foils from co-ordinates using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet graphical facility is explained and illustrated (this, your reviewer can confi rm, is excellent). There is a fi ne glossary of terms and an index.

In fact, despite its softback construction, this is a lovely book, clearly printed, easy to read and superbly illustrated.

R G BoorCEng FRAeS

Aerofoils and WingsBy M PressnellA Robert Hale Limited imprint of The Crowood Press, Ramsbury, Wiltshire SN8 2HR, UK. 2015. 208pp. Illustrated. £20. [Discounted price of £15 including UK postage/packing, available to RAeS members via www.crowood.com using wmodelplan promotion code until end-August 2016]. ISBN 978-0-7198-1540-9.

Although generally viewed as a gentle hobby, free-fl ight duration competitions for model gliders, those powered by internal combustion engines and those by rubber motors, are closely and determinedly fought.

In all three classes potential designers are faced with restrictions on total fl ying surface area or wing loading and minimum airframe weights, to which they must adhere. For gliders, the maximum towline length is set, for IC models engine capacity and power-on time are specifi ed and, for the rubber-powered model, a maximum motor weight. Within these limits, designers have complete freedom to chose the ratio of wing to tailplane area, tail arm, general layout and, germane to our study here, aspect ratio and the aerofoil section.

Operating at low Reynold’s numbers, the modern aerofoil for competitive models is slender, generally turbulated near the leading edge and, with the increasing use of exotic materials, accurately made. Nevertheless, there remains the choice of camber, as that optimised for the glide phase can compromise the climb under power or the fi nal zoom

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50

Library AdditionsAfterburner

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

GENERAL

IHS Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft: Development & Production 2016-2017. Edited by P Jackson et al. IHS Global Limited, Sentinel House, 163 Brighton Road, Coulsdon, Surrey CR5 2YH, UK. 2016. 1046pp. Illustrated. $1,355. ISBN 978-0-7106-3177-0.

Alphabetically arranged by country and illustrated with colour photographs and line arrangement diagrams, the latest completely revised edition of this key reference work for the aerospace industry recording all the major current civil and military aircraft programmes (865 in number) with detailed data summaries. The volume concludes with overview tables summarising air-launched missiles, aero-engines, auxiliary power units (APUs), propellers, aircraft fl oats and emergency parachute systems.

Aerospace Industry Report: Facts, Figures and Outlook for the Aviation and Aerospace Manufacturing Industry – Fourth edition. R Materna et al. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 South Clyde Morris Blvd, Daytona Beach, FL 32114-3900, USA. 314pp. Illustrated. $95. ISBN 978-0-9881837-2-8.

A detailed statistical analysis of the US aerospace industry placed with the context of global trends in the civil and military aerospace sectors (including separate sections on the aircraft maintenance, rotorcraft, avionics and airports industries) and the role played by aerospace clusters.

AERODYNAMICS

Aircraft Control and Simulation: Dynamics, Controls Design, and Autonomous Systems – Third edition. B L Stevens et al. John Wiley and Sons,

The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, UK. 2016. 749pp. Illustrated. £110. ISBN 978-1-118-87098-3.

Analytical Fluid Dynamics – Third edition. G Emanuel. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL, 33487-2742, USA. 2016. Distributed by Taylor & Francis Group, 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon OX14 4RN, UK. 632pp. Illustrated. £108. [20% discount available to RAeS members via www.crcpress.com using AKQ07 promotion code]. ISBN 978-1-4987-1569-0.

AEROELASTICITY

Principles of Aeroelasticity. R B Bhat. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL, 33487-2742, USA. 2016. Distributed by Taylor & Francis Group, 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon OX14 4RN, UK. 173pp. Illustrated. £55. [20% discount available to RAeS members via www.crcpress.com using AKQ07 promotion code]. ISBN 978-1-4987-2472-2.

HISTORICAL

Junkers Ju 87. R Michulec and M Willis. Published by Stratus, Poland, on behalf of Mushroom Model Publications, 3 Gloucester Close, Petersfi eld, Hants GU32 3AX, UK (www.mmpbooks.biz). 2016. 128pp. Illustrated. £19. ISBN 978-83-65281-12-8.

Numerous detailed colour and monochrome arrangement/markings diagrams and colour photographs of details of museum exhibits illustrate this detailed development history of the famous German dive bomber from the genesis of its design evolution through its many operational variants.

Boeing 747: a History – Delivering the Dream. M W Bowman. Pen & Sword Aviation, Pen & Sword Books.

Illustrated with colour photographs throughout, a history of the famous commercial airliner which fi rst entered service with Pan American World Airways on 21 January 1970 through to the 747-8 and the 747-400 Dreamlifter freighter variants.

PROPULSION

Pioneering American Rocketry: the Reaction Motors, Inc (RMI) Story, 1941-1972. American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series Vol 44. F H Winter et al. Univelt, PO Box 28130, San Diego, CA 92198, USA. 2015. 459pp. Illustrated. $95. ISBN 978-0-87703-619-7.

SERVICE AVIATION

Forever Vigilant: Naval 8/208 Squadron RAF – a Centenary of Service from Camels to Hawks. G Pitchfork. Grub Street, 4 Rainham Close, London SW11 6SS, UK. 2016. 280pp. Illustrated. £25. ISBN 978-1-910690-14-7.

Tracing its origins back to the establishment of No 8 Naval Squadron of the Royal Naval Air Service in October 1916, a detailed history of the squadron’s involvement in a number of key areas of confl ict over the past 100 years, focusing on its operations with the Hawker Hunter and Blackburn Buccaneer and its current role as an advanced fl ying training squadron operating the BAE Systems Hawk.

From the Voisin to the Mirage: 100 Years of French Aeronaut Presence in Peru. A T Gallegos. Published by Stratus, Poland, on behalf of Mushroom Model Publications, 3 Gloucester Close, Petersfi eld, Hants GU32 3AX, UK (www.mmpbooks.biz). 2016. 112pp. Illustrated. £19. ISBN 978-83-61421-93-1.

From the pioneering fl ight of 15 January 1911 of Juan Bielovucic in a Voisin over Lima, a detailed account of the key role which French aircraft types (including the designs of Hanriot, Salmson, Morane and Nieuport) have played in the development of military aviation in Peru, culminating in the acquisition by the Fuerza Aerea del Peru of the Dassault Mirage 2000.

Portuguese Fighter Colours 1919-1956. L A Tavares and A J Soares. Published by Stratus, Poland, on behalf of Mushroom Model Publications, 3 Gloucester Close, Petersfi eld, Hants GU32 3AX, UK (www.mmpbooks.biz). 2016. 232pp. Illustrated. £35. ISBN 978-83-63678-45-6.

Illustrated by numerous photographs and colour arrangement/markings diagrams, a compilation of concise operational histories of British (Martinsyde F4/F4A Buzzard, Hawker Fury MkI, Gloster Gladiator MkII, Supermarine Spitfi re MkI (F1A)/MkV, Hawker Hurricane MkIIB/IIC, Bristol Beaufi ghter TFX), French (SPAD S7 C1, Morane-Saulnier MS133/MS230/MS233) and American (Curtiss Mohawk, Lockheed P-38G Lightning, Bell P-39/P-400 Airacobra, Republic F-47 Thunderbolt) military aircraft types that saw service use in Portugal.

SPACE

Fallen Astronauts: Heroes Who Died Reaching for the Moon. C Burgess and K Doolan. University of Nebraska Press, 1111 Lincoln Mall, Lincoln NE 68588-0630, USA. 2016. Distributed by Combined Academic Publishers, Windsor House, Cornwall Road, Harrogate HG1 2PW, UK. 496pp. Illustrated. £25.99. [25% discount available to RAeS members via www.combinedacademic.co.uk using CS314FLIGHT promotion code]. ISBN 978-0-8032-3446-8.

A compilation of biographical studies of the American astronauts (Capt Theodore Cordy Freeman, Elliot McKay See Jr, Capt Charles Arthur Bassett II, Lt Col Virgil Ivan ‘Gus’ Grissom, Lt Col Edward Higgins White II, Lt Cdr Roger Bruce Chaffee, Maj Edward Galen Givens Jr, Maj Clifton Curtis Williams Jr) and

Soviet cosmonauts (Valentin Vasilyevich Bondarenko, Grigori Grigorievich Nelyubov, Vladimir Mikhailovich Komarov, Yuri Alexeyevich Gagarin, Pavel Ivanovich Belyayev, Georgy Timofeyevich Dobrovolsky, Viktor Ivanovich Patsayev, Vladimir Nikolaysevich Volkov) who tragically died during the ‘Space Race’ era, a named plaque and small tin fi gurine being placed on the Moon’s surface in their memory by astronauts Dave Scott and Jim Irwin on 2 August 1971 during their Apollo 15 mission. Includes Foreword by Eugene A Cernan.

Infi nity Beckoned: Adventuring Through the Inner Solar System, 1969-1989. J Gallentine. University of Nebraska Press, 1111 Lincoln Mall, Lincoln NE 68588-0630, USA. 2016. Distributed by Combined Academic Publishers, Windsor House, Cornwall Road, Harrogate HG1 2PW, UK. 496pp. Illustrated. £25.99. [25% discount available to RAeS members via www.combinedacademic.co.uk using CS314FLIGHT promotion code]. ISBN 978-0-8032-3446-8.

Eyeing the Red Storm: Eisenhower and the First Attempt to Build a Spy Satellite. R M Dienesch. University of Nebraska Press, 1111 Lincoln Mall, Lincoln NE 68588-0630, USA. 2016. Distributed by Combined Academic Publishers, Windsor House, Cornwall Road, Harrogate HG1 2PW, UK. 296pp. £25.99. ISBN 978-0-8032-5572-2.

The Other Space Race: Eisenhower and the Quest for Aerospace Security. N M Smabaluk. Naval Institute Press, 291 Wood Road, Annapolis, MD 21402, USA. 2015. Distributed by Eurospan Group, 3 Henrietta Street, London WC2E 8LU, UK. 344pp. Illustrated. £36.50. ISBN 978-1-61251-886-2.

An analysis of the history and political considerations of the USAF Boeing X-20 Dyno-Soar (‘Dynamic Soarer’) programme to develop a spaceplane that could be used for a variety of military missions.

BOOKS

For further information contact the National Aerospace Library.T +44 (0)1252 701038 or 701060E [email protected]

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Afterburner

Society News

AEROSPACE / JULY 201652

RAeS GALA BANQUET

Hosted on Wednesday 18 May in the magnifi cent setting of Guildhall London and in the presence of HRH Prince Michael of Kent GCVO FRAeS, the Royal Aeronautical Society Gala Banquet was a splendid occasion that marked the Society’s 150th anniversary in fi tting style. Close to 580 members, corporate partners and their guests came together to celebrate this milestone in the Society’s history, and network with friends and associates in the aerospace and aviation community.

The event was hosted by the Society’s incoming President, Professor Chris Atkin CEng FRAeS, who refl ected in his opening address on the remarkable aeronautical achievements of the past 150 years and the growth of the Society from a small group of hopeful engineers and enthusiasts, to a global organisation of 22,000 members representing all conceivable disciplines connected with aeronautics. Looking to the future, Professor Atkin surmised that “the challenges and technological opportunities for our industry may change beyond recognition but the core business of the Royal Aeronautical Society will still be to convene people – knowledgeable, experienced and enthusiastic people – working together in an environment of independence and impartiality, to deliver these outputs.”

The Society was especially delighted to welcome a table of young male and female graduate engineers hosted by two senior executives from Safran Landing Systems. In the words of the Society’s President, this was a prime example of senior decision-makers giving the next generation of professionals “the freedom to experience the richness that our community has to offer” and helping them to “acquire a real breadth of experience with which they can confi dently shape the future.”

After dinner the world-renowned aeronautical engineer, pilot and pioneer/adventurer, Per Lindstrand FRAeS, was welcomed to the podium. With the Society’s origins in ballooning and an overriding theme of ‘innovative fi rsts in aerospace’ for our anniversary celebrations, Per Lindstrand could not have been better suited as the guest speaker for this major event in the Society’s 150th anniversary calendar. In his after-dinner speech, Per told the tales of his record-breaking trans-oceanic hot air balloon fl ights, his attempts to be the fi rst to fl y a Rozière balloon around the Earth with Sir

Richard Branson HonCRAeS and the Lindstrand Technologies parachute that landed the Beagle 2 spacecraft on the planet Mars.

The Royal Aeronautical Society is grateful to its lead sponsor, AlixPartners for supporting this event and enabling the Society to host a suitably memorable 150-year celebration. AlixPartners is a leading global business advisory fi rm of results-oriented professionals who specialise in creating value and restoring performance. The company’s aerospace and defence team is deeply rooted in the industry and understands the unique strategic and operating challenges it faces.

The Society would also like to thank Lockheed Martin for sponsoring a pre-dinner Reception in the elegant Old Library and Print Room. Lockheed Martin UK is the UK-based arm of Lockheed Martin Corporation, a global security and aerospace company principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. While guests enjoyed their drinks and canapés, a touch of musical tradition and pageantry was provided by the RAF Salon Orchestra, who played by kind permission of the Air Force Board of the Defence Council.

Top and above right: Guests seated prior to dinner.Above left: Guest speaker, Per Lindstrand, delivers his after-dinner speech.Below: The RAF Salon Orchestra.

RAeS Celebrates 150 Years in Splendid Style

Top table guests prior to dinner. From left: Mrs Pauline Luxmoore-Ball; Mr Per Lindstrand FRAeS, Aeronautical Engineer, Pilot and Pioneer/Adventurer; Managing Director, Lindstrand Technologies; Mrs Hong Lindstrand; Mr Simon Luxmoore MBA FRAeS, Chief Executive, Royal Aeronautical Society; HRH Prince Michael of Kent GCVO FRAeS; Professor Chris Atkin CEng FRAeS, President, Royal Aeronautical Society; Professor of Aeronautical Engineering, City University London; Mrs Siobhan Atkin; Mr Stefano Aversa, Managing Director, Chairman of EMEA and Board Member, AlixPartners; and Mrs Regina Aversa.

Next year’s Annual Banquet will be held at the InterContinental London Park Lane on Thursday, 11 May 2017. For further information please contact Gail Ward, RAeS Events Manager – Corporate and Society E [email protected].

The Royal Aeronautical Society 2016 Gala Banquet was supported by:

Lead sponsor:

Reception sponsor:Reception sponsor:

The Aviation Historian®

THE AVIATION HISTORIAN

THE AVIATION HISTORIAN

68

Issue No 12

Issue No 12

69

EARLY IN JANUARY 1956 Clarence “Kelly” Johnson, Lockheed’s chief design engineer (RIGHT), turned up at the Pentagon with an extraordinary design proposal, one which he hoped would give the USAF a radical new way of obtaining strategic intelligence information. Johnson was there to see Richard E. Horner and Lt-Gen Donald L. Putt, Chief of Staff for Develop-ment. Johnson proposed to build a Mach 2·5-capable hydrogen-fuelled

at an altitude of 99,400ft (30,300m) and with a range of 2,530 miles (4,070km). It was Johnson’s second attempt to get the USAF interested in a dedicated spyplane. Only 18 sub-orbital CL-282. It had been rejected by the military but grabbed by the CIA. Under the codename Aquatone it would enter service in the

Johnson’s supersonic hydrogen-fuelled recon-naissance concept was altogether different and within a completely new operational envelope. wing with a span of 80ft (24·35m) and a slender fuselage with a length of 153ft (46·7m). With a gross take-off weight of 45,712lb (20,731kg) carrying 14,450lb (6,553kg) of liquid hydrogen in a single fuel tank, it would be powered by two REX-III engines, each with a thrust of 4,500lb and cruise at Mach 2·25. The CL-325-2 differed in

having two jettisonable wing-mounted auxiliary fuel tanks, which would reduce both the size and weight of the aircraft by 15 per cent. A new directionIt was second time around for Johnson, who was determined to get the USAF to adopt his revolutionary new spyplane. His attention to hydrogen as a propellant had been directed by airframe studies on an unusual subsonic hydrogen-fuelled high-altitude aircraft proposed by British design engineer Randolph Rae. [See Plan H: America’s Unbuilt Spyplanes Pt 1 TAH8 — Ed.] That project stalled in late 1955 when, unbeknown to the quiet Englishman, the USAF had already made up its mind to probe further into hydrogen propulsion, but in a slightly different direction.On October 21, 1955, the Fuel & Propulsion

ported concerted efforts to study the advantages of hydrogen fuels, seeing no major obstacles to its use in aircraft. One decided advantage was its low mass per unit volume and the capacity for high-energy output compared to hydrocarbon fuels. Thus it was that in putting together the beginning on July 1, 1956, the USAF approved a request to increase the amount of research and development money for experiments with hydrogen propulsion from $1m to $4·5m. In November 1955 Wright-Patterson Air Force

FADING SUNTANAmerica’s Unbuilt Spyplanes — Part Two: Kelly Johnson’s ambitious CL-400 projectIn the second part of his exclusive series on America’s series of unbuilt Cold War spyplanes

Dr DAVID BAKER tells the full story of the missing link between Kelly Johnson’s innovative U-2 and the game-changing SR-71 Blackbird — the hydrogen-powered high-altitude Mach 2·5-capable CL-400 Suntan, a classic victim of vaulting ambition and wildly spiralling costs

LOCKHEED’S

Although a full-size airframe was never completed by Lockheed, the CL-400-10, codenamed Suntan, was clearly based on Clarence “Kelly” Johnson’s hydrogen-powered Mach 3-capable CL-400-10 was more than three times the length of its stablemate, CO

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THE AVIATION HISTORIAN31

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from point of departure to the combat zone. Thus the military value of the jet

fighter may depend upon its power to leap over oceans and continents . . .”

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“Up a bit . . . right a bit.” The view of the hose and drogue

during trials in 1949–50. During February–March 1949 the

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54

Society News

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

Afterburner

Below: The RAeS Man Powered Aircraft Group, Rules Committee, Dr Paul MacCready, Bryan Allen, pilot; Taras Kiceniuk and Henry Kremer in the Lecture Theatre at the Society’s headquarters at No.4 Hamilton Place, London, December 1979.RAeS (NAL).

Air Transport Courses

Under the new Secretary, Archie Ballantyne, the activities of the Society continued to expand. In 1954, the Society was asked to sponsor an Air Transport Course which, it was considered, would help to educate airline executives and to bring air transport operators and manufacturers together, to their mutual advantage. The Council of the Society decided not just to sponsor the venture but to run such a course.

The fi rst Air Transport Course was held at Oxford in 1956, with the Secretary as Director and three resident lecturers, on the economics, operations and law of air transport and with ‘guest’ lecturers from international airlines and organisations. So successful was the course that it was held annually at Oxford into the new century. It was originally held over three weeks but was reduced to eight days at the request of sponsors who no longer wanted their staff away for so long. During the 1990s, week-long versions of the course were held in Kenya, South Africa and Cyprus.

Sections and Groups

During the post-war years aeronautics became more and more specialised and it was impossible to cover all subjects in any one lecture session to satisfy all members. In 1957, the Society authorised and drew up rules for the formation of sections to cover specialised activities. A Students’ Section of the Society had been formed in 1921, which became the Graduates’ and Students’ Section in 1934 when the grade of membership of Graduate was instituted, and this was now brought under the new rules for Sections. The fi rst new section to be formed was the Guided Flight Section which soon became the Astronautics and Guided Flight Section. This was followed in 1960 by the Rotorcraft Section after the amalgamation with the Society of the Helicopter Association of Great Britain. Each Section was under the general direction of the Council but had a large measure of autonomy of its affairs under its own Committees and organised its own lectures, many of which were published in the Journal.

The fi rst group to be formed, although before the new rules, was the Historic Aircraft Maintenance Group after the Society had bought, in 1953 (the 50th anniversary of the Wrights’ fi rst fl ight), the Nash Collection of Historic Aircraft to prevent it

being sold to America. It was then thought that a National Aeronautical Museum would be founded. The aircraft, which included a 1909 Blériot, 1912 Caudron GIII, 1913 Maurice Farman F40, 1914 Avro 504K, 1917 Sopwith Camel, 1917-18 Fokker DVII and 1918 SE5A, were restored by voluntary workers, enthusiasts and some ‘old hands’ – craftsmen with long association with aircraft going back to the 1914-18 war. The aircraft were shown at several of the Society’s Garden Parties, including the Centenary one but, in 1991 the nine aircraft from this collection, together with the Vickers Wellington bomber which had been added to it, were sold to the Ministry of Defence, realising over £250,000 and ensuring that the aircraft could be displayed and maintained by the RAF Museum. Some smaller items were not included in the sale.

In 1959, the fi rst Groups were formed under the new rules. They were the Man Powered Aircraft Group, the Agricultural Aviation Group and the Historical Group. The Air Law Group was formed in 1961 and the Test Pilots’ Group in 1963. There are now over 20 Specialist Groups who meet to organise conferences, lectures and to write the occasional Paper in response to current topics of interest. The Groups include: Aerodynamics, Aerospace Medicine, Air Law, Air Power, Air Transport, Airworthiness and Maintenance, Avionics and Systems, Flight Operations, Flight Test, Flight Simulation, General Aviation, Management Studies, Historical, Human Factors, Human Powered, Rotorcraft, Space, Structures and Materials, Propulsion (this is a joint group with the Institution of Mechanical Engineers), Unmanned Air Systems and Weapon Systems and Technology.

The Royal Aeronautical Society: Part 7 – Expansion

RAeS 150th ANNIVERSARY www.aerosociety.com/150

Under the new Secretary, Archie Ballantyne, the activities of the Society continued to expand

JULY 2016 55i fFind us on Twitter Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

of 4 Hamilton Place, an appeal was launched. Members and industry responded and work on the Society’s lecture theatre was started in 1959. On 2 December 1960, Lord Brabazon of Tara formally declared the lecture theatre open. At the same time a further (fi fth) fl oor was added to the top of the house. In 1979 a new lease with the Crown Estates Commissioner was signed which would have expired on 5 January 2059, however, on 31 March 2009 the Society purchased the freehold, thereby safeguarding its headquarters for future generations. During 2003 the lecture theatre was refurbished following a kind donation from the Boeing Company. In 2006 the basement area under the lecture theatre, which for many years had been used as an overfl ow book and journal store for the Library, was cleared and completely refurbished following generous sponsorship by Airbus UK to create the Airbus Business Suite. A second donation from Airbus Group allowed substantial improvements to the access to the Suite, along with new basement toilet facilities. These were formally opened by Denis Ranque, Chairman of Airbus Group, on 19 January 2015.

Man-powered Flight

Just as in 1866, some members of the Society talked of man-powered fl ight so, in 1966, a number of man-powered fl ight enthusiasts had built light-weight aircraft to be fl own by man alone. In 1959, a prize of £5,000 was offered by Henry Kremer, an industrialist, for the fi rst successful fl ight of a man-powered aircraft fl ying a fi gure of eight around two markers half a mile apart. The Southampton University Man Powered Aircraft Group achieved the fi rst man-powered fl ight on 9 November 1961, followed on 16 November by the fi rst fl ight of the Puffi n of the Hatfi eld Man Powered Aircraft Club. In May 1962 a special award of £50 was made to the Hatfi eld Club for a straight fl ight over half a mile. Unfortunately, both of these aircraft were damaged in accidents but a second Puffi n was built and fl ew in 1965. All these aircraft, as well as two research projects, received fi nancial assistance from the Society. Attempts were also made by enthusiasts in Liverpool and Halton.

Eventually the prize was increased to £50,000 and was won in America by Dr Paul MacCready with Gossamer Condor in 1977. Henry Kremer gave a further £100,000 for the fi rst fl ight across the English Channel and that was again won by MacCready, this time with Gossamer Albatross in 1979. He then gave another £100,000 for a world speed competition. Interest was immediate and money was distributed to fi ve prizewinners. There are still two further major competitions: marathon for £50,000 and sporting aircraft for £100,000. In July 2012 and again in 2013 the Society’s Human Powered Aircraft Group organised the Icarus Cup where teams competed in various tasks.

The Lecture Theatre

For many years the Society had dreamt of having its own lecture theatre. The Annual Report of the Council for 1946-47 recorded: “It is with regret that the Society has no lecture hall of its own.” When the Presidential Address was, temporarily, revived in 1956 on the 90th anniversary of the Society, the need for the Society to have its own lecture hall in addition to its own home, was emphasised. Immediately one member, a Past President, Sir George Dowty, donated a cheque for £100. But, not until 1957 were active steps possible. Many sites and possibilities had been investigated but when the Hyde Park Corner Scheme was announced the Society was able to buy enough land from a neighbouring garden to 4 Hamilton Place to make a lecture theatre feasible. With access to the rear of the building made possible because of the reconstruction of Hyde Park Corner, and the possibility of extending the lease

Top: The Sopwith Camel, left, and SE5A, G-EBIC, of the Nash Collection inside the marquee at the 1954 RAeS Garden Party at London Airport on 13 June.Above left: Dr Archie Ballantyne, RAeS Secretary, surveys the excavations for the lecture theatre in 1959.Above right: The lecture theatre c.1980.Below: The Airbus Business Suite in 2016. All RAeS (NAL).

Afterburner

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

DiaryEVENTS

6-7 JulyThe Automated Rotorcraft : The Past, Present and FutureRotorcraft Group Conference

19 JulyLanchester LectureNorman Wood, Expert, Flow Control and Aerodynamics, Airbus OperationsAerodynamics Group Named LectureBristol, UK

22 JulyInternational Air Cadet Exchange (IACE) 2016Young Persons Committee

2 SeptemberStepping up to ManagementYoung Persons’ Conference

7 SeptemberContemporary Challenges in Airworthiness and Maintenance Education and TrainingAirworthiness and Maintenance Group ConferenceUniversity of Limerick, Ireland

9 SeptemberHumanitarian Aerospace – A New Civil-Military InterfaceAir Power Group Conference

19 SeptemberThe Spitfi re at 80: Fresh Perspectives on an Iconic Fighter.Historical Group Conference

27-28 SeptemberUnprecedented Global Training Demand – Real Solutions Driven by Necessity2016 International Flight Crew Training Conference

3-4 OctoberUAS ConferenceUAS Group Conference

4-6 October5th Aircraft Structural Design ConferenceStructures and Materials Group Conference

17-18 OctoberDelivering Sustainable Growth in AviationGreener by Design Group Conference

19 OctoberNear Earth Asteroids – Opportunity or Catastrophe?Space Group Conference

All lectures start at 18.00hrs unless otherwise stated. Conference proceedings are available at www.aerosociety.com/news/proceedings

www.aerosociety/events www.aerosociety/events

56

19-21 July2016 Applied Aerodynamics ConferenceAerodynamics Group ConferenceBristol, UK

Airb

us

LECTURES

An artist’s impression of NanoSail-D2 in Earth orbit which, in 2011, was used to study the deployment of solar sails in space. Prof Monica Grady will talk about going to Philae and beyond at Oxford on 19 July. NASA.

20 September — Introduction to the KC-46 tanker design. Danny Wright, Boeing KC-46/767 Chief Mechanic.

SYDNEYBallroom 1, Four Seasons Hotel, 199 George Street, Sydney. 12 noon. Doug Nancarrow, T 0417 695 002.1 September — The second Aerospace Executive Management Luncheon. John Borghetti, CEO, Virgin Australia, will be interviewed by media personality Ticky Fullerton.

TOULOUSESymposium Room, B01, Airbus HQ/SAS, 1 rond point Maurice Bellonte, 31707 Blagnac. 6pm. Contact: [email protected] for a security pass.20 September — Forecasting commercial airline activities. A member of BIPE (Board for Economic Analysis and Forecasts). Joint lecture with 3AF Midi-Pyrenees.

WASHINGTON DCBritish Embassy, 3100 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC. 6pm.22 September — Panel discussion on the application and regulation of unmanned aircraft systems in the US and UK.

Dr Ana Pedraz, E [email protected] or T +44 (0)7936 392799.8 September — Safe evacuation from aircraft: the application of fi re and evacuation simulation to aircraft design, certifi cation and accident investigation. Prof Edwin R Galea, Director, Fire Safety Engineering Group, University of Greenwich.

MUNICHTUM, Campus Garching, Hörsaal, Munich. 5.30pm.14 July — A400M – status, technik und lessons learnt. Kurt Rossner, SVP Airbus D&S Military Aircraft Madrid.

OXFORDMagdalen Centre, Oxford Science Park, Oxford. 7pm. Nigel Randall, E [email protected] July — To Philae and beyond: space travel. Prof Monica Grady, Professor of Planetary and Space Science at the Open University.20 September — Women with altitude. Clare Walker.

PRESTONPersonnel and Conference Centre, BAE Systems, Warton. 7.30pm. Alan Matthews, T +44 (0)1995 61470.14 September — The early years of the MRCA/Tornado development programme. Dave Ward, BAE Systems Heritage Group.

SEATTLEMuseum of Flight, 9404 East Marginal Way South, Seattle, Washington. 6.30pm.

Copy datefor the August issue of AEROSPACE is 4 July.

BIRMINGHAM, WOLVERHAMPTON AND COSFORDNational Cold War Museum, RAF Museum Cosford, Shifnal, Shropshire. 7pm. Chris Hughs, T +44 (0)1902 844523.8 September — The Lockheed SR71 Blackbird. Col Richard Graham.

BROUGHCottingham Parks Golf and Country Club. 7.30pm. Ben Groves, T +44 (0)1482 663938.14 September — Training the pilots of the Shuttleworth Collection. Roger ‘Dodge’ Bailey.

BRUSSELSHQ, EUROCONTROL, Rue de la Fusée 96, 1130 Brussels. 6pm. 28 September — Inaugural von Kármán Lecture. 21st century civil aviation – on course or over confi dent and complacent? Prof Ian Poll.

CAMBRIDGELecture Theatre ‘0’, Cambridge University Engineering Department, Trumpington Street, Cambridge. 7.30pm. Jin-Hyun Yu, T +44 (0)1223 373129.15 September — Flying the F-4 Phantom in Vietnam as a Wild Weasel pilot. Col Richard Graha (Ret’d).

CANBERRAADFA Military Theatre. 6pm. Jon Pike, E [email protected] August — Joint Strike Fighter.13 September — Ian Fleming Lecture and Dinner. AM Leo Davies, Chief of Air Force, RAAF. University House, ANU.

CRANWELLDaedalus Offi cers’ Mess, RAF Cranwell. 7.30pm.11 July — Lancaster fi rsts. Jim Shortland.5 September — UK P-8 Poseidon; a much needed return to UK Maritime Patrol Aircraft operations. Wg Cdr Jake McAllister.

HAMBURGAirbus Conference Centre, Airbus Hamburg. 6pm. Richard Sanderson, T +49 (0)4167 92012.5 July — Third Gerhard Sedlmayr Lecture. Training for resilience. Capt David Owens, Airbus Senior Director, Flight Crew Training Policy.

HEATHROWCommunity Learning Centre, British Airways Waterside, Harmondsworth. 6.15pm. For security passes please contact

57JULY 2016i fFind us on Twitter Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Society NewsRAeS COUNCIL 2016-2017Following the 2016 Council elections, the following were elected to serve for three years until May 2019:

Dr Alisdair Edward James WoodProfessor Jonathan Edward CooperMrs Brenda CrawfordProfessor Richard ParkerDr Francesca De FlorioMiss Kerissa Shervanda Khan

The Council for 2016-2017 is:

PresidentProf Chris Atkin MA PhD CEng FRAeS (ex offi cio)

President-ElectACM Sir Stephen Dalton BSc FRAeS (ex offi cio)

Past-PresidentMr Martin Broadhurst OBE MA CDir FIoD FRAeS

(ex offi cio)

Elected membersMr Marc Bailey MRAeSMr Phil Boyle BSc(Eng) MSc CEng MIEE FRAeS

(Chairman of Board of Trustees)Mr David Chinn BSc(Hons) CEng FRAeS MIET AILProf Jonathan Cooper CEng FRAeS

(Professional Standards Board Chair)Mrs Brenda Crawford ARAeSDr Francesca De Florio FRAeS Capt Hugh Dibley MCILT FRIN FRAeSLt Cdr Richard Gearing CEng MRAeSRear Admiral Simon Henley CEng FRAeSMiss Kerissa Khan MEng ARAeS Mr Ian Middleton BA(Hons) MBA FRAeS

(Learned Society Board Chair)Air Cdre Jayne Millington MA MA(Oxon) FRAeS

FCMI RAFProfessor Richard Parker CBE FREng FRAeS

FIMechE FInstPWg Cdr Ross Priday CEng MRAeS Dr Thurai Rahulan BSc(Hons) PhD AMIMechE

Affi liateAir Cdre Peter Round MA BSc(Hons) FRAeSMr Robert Savidge FRAeS Dr Alisdair Wood EngD CEng FRAeS

(Membership Services Board Chair)

Co-opted membersMiss Hilary Barton BSc CEng FRAeS AFIMADr Robert Winn FRAeS Prof David Southwood BA DIC PhD FRAeS

BOARD OF TRUSTEES 2016-2017Mr Phil Boyle BSc(Eng) MSc CEng MIEE FRAeS (Chairman)Prof Chris Atkin MA PhD CEng FRAeS (President)ACM Sir Stephen Dalton BSc FRAeS (President-Elect)Mr Martin Broadhurst OBE MA CDir FIoD FRAeS (Past-President)Lt Cdr Richard Gearing BEng(Hons) CEng MRAeS MCGI MCMIMs Jane Middleton FRAeSMs Sarah Moynihan BSc(Hons) FCA CRAeSSir John O’Reilly FREng FRAeSDr Thurai Rahulan BSc(Hons) PhD AMIMechE Affi liate

Division Presidents (all ex offi cio)Mr John Vincent CEng FRAeS (Australian Division)Gp Capt Frank Sharp AFC FRAeS

(New Zealand Division)AM Salim Arshad FRAeS (Pakistan Division)Dr Glen Snedden PrEng PhD MSc(Mech Eng)

BCom(Management) MRAeS (South African Division)

Branches Committee ChairMr Mike Goulette FRAeS (ex offi cio)

Specialist Groups Committee ChairMr Jeremy Graham CEng MRAeS (ex offi cio)

In attendanceChief Executive: Mr Simon Luxmoore MBA FRAeSHonorary Solicitor: Mr Patrick SlomskiGovernance Manager: Ms Beth Hargreaves ACIS

Prof Chris Atkin, left, shortly after being handed the Presidential badge of offi ce by Martin Broadhurst, right, at the end of the 2016 AGM on 12 May.

Society News

AEROSPACE / JULY 201658

Afterburner

A 150th anniversary is a great moment to stop and refl ect on what has been achieved. It is an even more exciting opportunity to consider where the world of aerospace and aviation innovation is going next and how we can all benefi t.”

Purchase your copy of the commemorative book (148pp) to read and keep on your book shelf or coffee table, or to share with friends and family and inspire the next generation of aerospace professionals who will infl uence and bring about the next 50 years of innovation.

Books are available for £15 plus postage. To order your copy contact us onE [email protected] +44 (0)20 7670 4343W www.aerosociety.com/DeliveringTheDream

RAeS 150th ANNIVERSARY www.aerosociety.com/150

A commemorative book has been produced to celebrate the aeronautical innovation and progress that has taken place during the 150-year history of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

Written by Society Member Richard Gardner, with contributions from other RAeS members, experts within our Specialist Groups and our knowledgeable librarians at the National Aerospace Library, this anniversary book explores the many milestones in aerospace and aviation alongside striking images, some previously never before published.

Alexey Isaikin FRAeS, President of Volga Dnepr Group, who supported publication of the book, said:

“The Society embodies everything that is best about aerospace and aviation; professional standards, science and engineering excellence, and the realisation that there is always progress that can be achieved when we share out knowledge and expertise.

Delivering the Dream

Top left: The fi rst Armstrong Whitworth Argosy I, G-EBLF, City of Glasgow, of Imperial Airways. RAeS (NAL).

Top right: Airbus A380-800 operated by Qatar Airways at London Heathrow Airport apron outside Terminal 4. Mohammed Tawsif Salam.

Above left: Sqn Cdr E H Dunning’s Sopwith Pup, N6453, landing on the forward deck of HMS Furious on 7 August 1917. RAeS (NAL).

Above right: An F-35C Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter assigned to the Salty Dogs of Air Test and Evaluation Squadron (VX) 23 makes an arrested landing aboard the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower (CVN 69) in October 2015. US Navy.

59

NEW PARTNERS EVENTSPlease note: attendance at Corporate Partner Briefi ngs is strictly exclusive to staff of RAeS Corporate Partners.

Tuesday 20 September 2016 / LondonAerospace Logistics Supply and Demand in the 21st CenturyCorporate Partner Briefi ng by Ralph Perkins FRAeS, Managing Director, Aviation Logistics Network (ALN)Sponsor:

Thursday 20 October 2016 / LondonUK and International Cyber Security (title tbc)Corporate Partner Briefi ng by The Rt Hon The Baroness Neville-Jones DCMG, Chairman of Advisory Board, Cyber Security Challenge and Chairman, Bank of England’s Senior Cyber Advisory Panel

Thursday 1 December 2016 / LondonCorporate Partner Breakfast Briefi ng by The Rt Hon Anna Soubry MP, Minister of State for Small Business, Industry & Enterprise

www.aerosociety.com/eventsFor further information, please contact Gail WardE [email protected] or T +44 (0)1491 629912

The Royal Aeronautical Society would like to welcome the following Corporate Partner.

HARVEY NASH PLC110 Bishopsgate, London EC2N 4AY, UKT +44 (0) 20 7333 0033E [email protected] www.harveynash.comContact Rob Lanham, Director

A leading executive search, leadership and diversity consulting and software development fi rm, we deliver C-Suite, executive leadership and specialist technology, cyber security and engineering appointments across the aerospace, defence and security sectors globally.

Headquartered in London, UK, and listed on the London Stock Exchange, we have an international infrastructure which includes a signifi cant offi ce presence across mainland Europe, the UK, US, Scandinavia and the Nordics and Asia-Pacifi c.

JULY 2016

Corporate Partners

i fFind us on Twitter Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Left: Sir Frederick Handley Page CBE FRAeS, RAeS President 1945-1947, speaking at the Royal Aeronautical Society’s 80th anniversary dinner at Guildhall, London, on 11 January 1946. On his left: John Wilmot, MP, Minister of Supply and Aircraft Production and Viscount Trenchard HonFellow, the ‘Father of the Royal Air Force’.

Right: Prof Chris Atkin FRAeS, RAeS President 2016-2017, speaking at the Society’s 150th anniversary Gala Banquet at Guildhall, London, on 18 May 2016. See pp 52-53.

Both looked to the future and spoke of the importance of the Society’s role in encouraging young people into the industry.

The same spot, 70 years apart

1946 2016

Membership19465,280201622,000

E-ASSOCIATES

60

Elections

WITH REGRETThe RAeS announces with regret the deaths of the following members:

John William Allam OBE FRAeS 91

Bryan Musgrave Collings CEng FRAeS 90

Cornelius Driver FRAeS

Anthony John Heath OBE CEng FRAeS 86

Karl Hecks CEng MRAeS 77

Aaron Arthur Hoffman FRAeS 95

Hubert Desmond Leigh CEng MRAeS 97

William George Morris IEng MRAeS 84

Howard Thomas Murley MRAeS 92

Geoffrey Newstead Affi liate 84

Peter Robinson CEng MRAeS 89

Bernard Hugh Stanley CEng MRAeS 96

Kim Pierrepont Douglas Stanton AMRAeS 87

AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

SOCIETY OFFICERSPresident: Prof Chris AtkinPresident-Elect: ACM Sir Stephen Dalton

BOARD CHAIRMEN

Learned Society Chairman: Ian MiddletonMembership Services Chairman:

Dr Alisdair WoodProfessional Standards Chairman:

Prof Jonathan Cooper

DIVISION PRESIDENTS

Australia: John VincentNew Zealand: Gp Capt Frank SharpPakistan: AM Salim ArshadSouth African: Dr Glen Snedden

Afterburner

Nigel AmphlettHester BijlSimon BrailsfordDesmond Byfi eldJeremy CooperRanjit DavisMaeve GallagherYounas GhulamGeoff HuntTerence MartinIan MitchellMark PriorMark SmithDavid StewartMartin TaylorRichard TurnerGreg WallaceThomas Winship

Mohamed Abdul Hameed

Seyed Ebrahim Abtahizadeh

Shakeel AhmedStephen Ashfi eldNicholas BakerJustin Brumfi ttPhilip CarterOscar ChanKan Ming ChuPatrick CowlingIan DebenhamRussell Dempsey

FELLOWS Greig DohertyMartyn DonoghueBrian EadesDavid EvansNicholas FoxOliver FradgleyNicholas GirlingRichard GoldieNicholas Griffi nCharles HorderGarry HuntJonathon HurleyIsmail HusamJinoy JoseRobin KenneaDuncan MacDonaldGeorge MacGregorNicolas MawetAlexander McEwenJeffrey MillerEdward NicholsonPeter NormanJonathan ParkerHeather RobinsonMohd Rashdan SaadBrian SealesRichard SharpeDavid SkingleMark StockwellOlivia StodieckRussell ThompsonJoseph UttleyJames WardFiona WhitbyMichael WhitleyMatthias WunderlinTimothy Wyllie

James AddisonSean AllertonEnrique Gutierrez LlaserSophie HarkerJoshua ListerPaul LonsdaleAlec MartinAndrew MatthewsHaziq NoahMohamed RiswanMark Rogerson

James BaseleyNathan Gardener

Simone BursichJonathan DaviesRadu Irimia

Houda BdeiwiRobert HartJustin Morin-Carpentier

Umoh EdemekaRomans KirenskisCheuk Yu Ngai

STUDENT AFFILIATES

MEMBERS

ASSOCIATE MEMBERS

ASSOCIATES

AFFILIATES

Join us for an evening of networking & entertainmentTickets available now – email [email protected] 01362 860061 www.theaviationnetwork.com

The Cool Aeronautics 2016 programme is going very well with recent events including Redhill Aerodrome and RAF Cosford to local primary school children, with more events to come throughout the year reaching hundreds of children with the support of our lead sponsor, Airbus Group.

We were delighted to support again ADS Group at the fi nals of the UK Aerospace Youth Rocketry Challenge in May and are looking forward to the international heats at Futures Day during Farnborough International, which also promises another engaging programme to inspire future aerospace pioneers.

Our thanks also to Raytheon UK for sponsoring this year’s Ballantyne event for secondary schools. Another fantastic event highlighting the past, present and future of aerospace with a wonderful keynote from Raytheon’s Roy Donelson, Director of Programme Delivery and Mission Assurance, and excellent contributions from Hybrid Air Vehicles, The Aviatrix Project and Cdr Adam Clink, Chief of Staff, Carrier Strike, Royal Navy.

Membership news update

www.aerosociety.com/IFCT2016

International Flight Crew Training Conference

UNPRECEDENTED GLOBAL

TRAINING DEMAND

REAL SOLUTIONS DRIVEN BY NECESSITY

LONDON / 27 - 28 SEPTEMBER 2016

Sponsors

It’s ‘crunch time’ and actions need to be taken urgently to improve the appeal, affordability and access to the career of professional flying.

The 2016 International Flight Crew Training Conference will look at creative solutions that can address the rapidly significant and escalating challenge.

www.aerosociety.com/FSGNov16

Flight Simulation Conference

SIMULATION BASED TRAINING

THE KEY TO MILITARY OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY

LONDON / 22-23 NOVEMBER 2016

Sponsors

The Flight Simulation Group will look at the Military Capability of training and as we face an increasingly unpredictable world with potential conflicts and threats, the conference aims to consider how proven and emerging technology will have the ability to respond to these threats.

Registration is now open.

www.aerosociety.com/AA2016

Aerodynamics Group

2016 APPLIED AERODYNAMICS

CONFERENCE

BRISTOL / 19 - 21 JULY 2016

Sponsor

This conference will provide a forum for the presentation and discussion of aspects of the advancement of the aerodynamic disciplines and their application through current research, nearer term conception and longer term design and operations.

Registrations is now open. Please check our website or contact us on [email protected] for more information

www.aerosociety.com/A&MSept

Airworthiness and Maintenance Conference

CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES IN

CONTINUING AIRWORTHINESS AND

MAINTENANCE EDUCATION AND

TRAINING

LIMERICK, IRELAND / 7 SEPTEMBER 2016

Sponsors

This conference aims to provide a platform for industry stakeholders, to review the growing technical skill requirements of the Continuing Airworthiness and Maintenance industry, and identify how best to meet these requirements through education and training.

Please visit our website to view the programme and to register.

although noting that block purchases should not be contemplated until the aircraft had fulfi lled key milestone targets. It is also likely to be more expensive to operate than the current generation of aircraft it will replace.

There are still some worries that cuts in orders could trigger the ‘death spiral’ effect that characterised the F-22, where cuts in production added mightily to unit costs. A lot will depend on international sales, where some early customers are having second thoughts and other likely (largely Middle Eastern) prospects remain blocked on political grounds. But all-in-all, as a business model, better to be associated with the F-35 than not over the coming decades.

Full value may mean more investment

Back to its impending arrival into British service: to get the most out of the aircraft, especially its networked potential, the UK will have to invest more in infrastructure – notably cross-platform connectivity. This will facilitate inter-operability not only with the US but other NATO and European armed forces. Without this extra step much of the F-35’s capability will be under-utilised and its upfront costs lose much of its justifi cation (I have a similar relationship with my smartphone).

Equally, for UK industry fully to benefi t from the aircraft’s lifecycle, winning the competition to provide elements of the logistic support against likely stiff opposition from Italy (with a production and check-out facility already in train) will be important.

And, as the Society has frequently noted, production gold does not ensure future industrial capability. To maintain Britain’s wider design and integration skills into the next generation government support for other projects will be vital. The Anglo-French UCAS is the obvious candidate, but as F-35B procurement plus carrier fi tting moves into an expensive stage, the temptation to cut costs elsewhere could be overwhelming.

At long last, and crossing fi ngers, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is set to make its Farnborough debut in this July’s run of airshows. By all accounts, British and American pilots are working well together in anticipation of initial operational status. A lot is hanging on its success – not just to provide a couple of very expensive aircraft carriers with their fi xed-wing, strike component – but also for a big chunk of UK industry with juicy production contracts out to the early 2030s, benefi ting from Britain’s privileged position as a Tier I partner.

The good news – nearly 100% probability of budget survival

According to my Washington spy, Richard Aboulafi a, the F-35 is generally in decent shape compared with a few years ago. But, he notes, “It’s stubbornly expensive”. And, solely from a performance driven perspective, “it’s a fantastic sensor and equipment package in search of a good air vehicle”. A bit of damning with faint praise perhaps, but viewed from this side of the Atlantic, the F-35 will still bring a massive qualitative improvement in UK air power. It is not a Harrier replacement, but a complete generational change in capability (for those of us who remember the 1960s swathe of cancelled British military aircraft, more of a fully developed P.1154 replacement, perhaps).

Expensive it certainly is – the programme is the single most expensive procurement in American history, and when production hits its peak, the aircraft will absorb a substantial portion of the US equipment budget. Cost growth was perhaps inevitable in such a complex aeroplane – but I do remember a briefi ng in the 1990s when affordability was stressed as a central goal. Cost escalation and worries about premature commitments based on immature technological development have been an almost continual complaint of the General Accountability Offi ce (GAO – the US Congressional audit offi ce).

However, the Senate Armed Services Committee recently gave the F-35 a ‘pass’,

The Last Word

Like greased lightning?

Professor Keith HaywardFRAeS

COMMENTARY FROM

THE (F-35)PROGRAMME IS THE SINGLE MOST EXPENSIVE PROCUREMENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY

58 AEROSPACE / JULY 2016

arco.co.uk/BeSure