fast forward, ready or not january 12, 2005. change change is the new reality a world constantly...
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FAST FORWARD, READY OR NOTFAST FORWARD, READY OR NOT
January 12, 2005January 12, 2005
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CHANGECHANGE IS THE NEW REALITYA World Constantly Remade
CHANGECHANGE IS THE NEW REALITYA World Constantly Remade
1984Nuclear War / Japan Inc.
China, India, USSR not players
8% U.S. PC Penetration MacIntosh introduced
~ 0 Internet users
The only jobs our kids will get are “selling McDonald’s
hamburgers & sweeping up around Japanese computers.”
8MHz CPU, $2,500
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CHANGECHANGE IS THE NEW REALITYA World Constantly Remade
CHANGECHANGE IS THE NEW REALITYA World Constantly Remade
1984 1994Nuclear War / Japan Inc.
China, India, USSR not playersOklahoma City / NAFTA
8% U.S. PC Penetration MacIntosh introduced
24% U.S. PC Penetration
~ 0 Internet users 2% Internet users
Mosaic brand new
The only jobs our kids will get are “selling McDonald’s
hamburgers & sweeping up around Japanese computers.”
NAFTA will create a “giant sucking sound of all our jobs leaving for
Mexico.”
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CHANGECHANGE IS THE NEW REALITYA World Constantly Remade
CHANGECHANGE IS THE NEW REALITYA World Constantly Remade
1984 1994 2004Nuclear War / Japan Inc.
China, India, USSR not players
Oklahoma City / NAFTA Terrorists / “Benedict Arnold CEOs”
8% U.S. PC Penetration MacIntosh introduced (8MHz
CPU, $2,500)
24% U.S. PC Penetration 58% U.S. PC Penetration
(2.66GHz, $600)~ 0 Internet users 2% Internet users
Mosaic introduced~ 160M online US
> 650M online worldwideThe only jobs our kids will
get are “selling McDonald’s hamburgers & sweeping up
around Japanese computers.”
NAFTA will create a “giant sucking sound of all our
jobs leaving for Mexico.”
“From a superpower to a third world country, the U.S. is in rapid decline.”
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20002000
Bubble Collapse
Global Recession
Terrorist Attacks
Corporate Scandals / Iraq War
20012001 20022002
NEW ENTRANTS… China, India, Eastern
Bloc enter global economy
NEW TECHNOLOGIES… Digitization and networking
create productivity revolution, any job anywhere
NEW PRESSURESNEW PRESSURES… … Pressure to innovate, Pressure to innovate,
customize, & be first-to-customize, & be first-to-market… blue & white market… blue & white
collar workcollar work
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGECyclical AND Structural Changes…Cyclical AND Structural Changes…THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE
Cyclical AND Structural Changes…Cyclical AND Structural Changes…
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Japan has the world’s fastest super-
computer
SOUTH KOREA #1 IN SOUTH KOREA #1 IN BROADBAND… over BROADBAND… over
70% citizens @ 70% citizens @ >1Mbps>1Mbps
Shrinking Share of: Global R&D S&E graduates Global patenting
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE...Combined with Better Global Competition…...Combined with Better Global Competition…
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE...Combined with Better Global Competition…...Combined with Better Global Competition…
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Years to 25% Years to 25% U.S. AdoptionU.S. Adoption
Source: McKinsey
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE… Are Coming At An Accelerating Pace…… Are Coming At An Accelerating Pace…
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE… Are Coming At An Accelerating Pace…… Are Coming At An Accelerating Pace…
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There will be more change in the next 30 years than in all of the 20th Century.
Disruptive Disruptive TechnologiesTechnologies
GlobalizationGlobalization
ConvergenceConvergence
Rising CompetitorsRising Competitors
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE… And Will Come Even Faster…… And Will Come Even Faster…
THE NEW DRIVERS OFTHE NEW DRIVERS OF CHANGECHANGE… And Will Come Even Faster…… And Will Come Even Faster…
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COPING WITH COPING WITH CHANGECHANGECreating New Opportunities & ChallengesCreating New Opportunities & Challenges
COPING WITH COPING WITH CHANGECHANGECreating New Opportunities & ChallengesCreating New Opportunities & Challenges
Consumer AcceptanceK-to-Gray Learning Environments
Regulatory Flexibility
Evolving Business Models
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“It is not the strongest of the species that survive,
nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive
to change.” Charles Darwin
WORKERS / COMPANIES / REGIONS / NATIONS
COPING WITH COPING WITH CHANGECHANGECan We Move Fast Enough?Can We Move Fast Enough?
COPING WITH COPING WITH CHANGECHANGECan We Move Fast Enough?Can We Move Fast Enough?
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HELP PEOPLE HELP PEOPLE TRANSITIONTRANSITION
MAXIMIZE OUR MAXIMIZE OUR COMPARATIVE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGESADVANTAGES
ENGAGE THE ENGAGE THE WORLDWORLD
IMPROVE IMPROVE EDUCATIONEDUCATION
Promoting American
Competitiveness
COPING WITH COPING WITH CHANGECHANGE How Do We “Pick Up The Pace”?COPING WITH COPING WITH CHANGECHANGE How Do We “Pick Up The Pace”?
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WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT? Help People Transition BetterWHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT? Help People Transition Better
Improve and fund retraining & adjustment programs
Credits for proactive investment in human capital
Encourage Saving Explore wage insurance
& health care portability Improve systems for
Lifelong Learning
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Fight for Market Access
Protect IPR globally
Prevent Non-Tariff Trade Barriers
Expand the Pie
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT?Engage the World
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT?Engage the World
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INNOVATION
America must never compete in the battle of America must never compete in the battle of who can pay their workers the least.who can pay their workers the least.
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT? Reinvest in our Comparative Advantages
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT? Reinvest in our Comparative Advantages
ENTREPRENEURSHIP INFRASTRUCTUREEDUCATION
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IMMIGRATION & STUDENT VISAS
K-TO-GRAY LEARNING
ENVIRONMENTS
Grow, Attract & Retain the Best & BrightestGrow, Attract & Retain the Best & Brightest
TECH-LITERATE
WORKFORCE
TEACHERS ABLE TO
INTEGRATE TECHNOLOGY
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT?Improve Education
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT?Improve Education
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THANK YOUTHANK YOUTHANK YOUTHANK YOU
ARE YOU READY? ARE YOU READY?