faster economic indicators from big data - united nations · 2019-05-07 · big data opportunity....
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web: datasciencecampus.ons.gov.ukemail: [email protected]: @DataSciCampus
Faster economic indicators from big data
Tom Smith, @_datasmithDirector, ONS Data Science Campus
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
The longer a decision-maker has to wait for the statistics, the less useful they are likely to be
Professor Sir Charles Bean (2016)Review of UK economic statistics
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
Length of time from 2008 for the UK economy to return to pre-recession size
Fig 2. ONS National Accounts Publication Timetable
Fig 1. UK GDP Growth Rate Early Intervention
Early Indicators
-6%Change in UK GDP between first quarter of 2008 and second quarter of 2009
5 years
£12bEstimated value for earlier identification of 2008 downturn
Faster indicators of the economy
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
Business value added tax (VAT) returns
• Expenditure and turnover diffusion indices
• Reporting behaviour• Available up to 1 month before GDP
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
Road traffic data
• Highways England sensor data
• Average speeds
• All-England and English ports
• By vehicle length
• Available 2 months before GDP
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
• Marine and Coastguard Agency, ORBCOMM, Global Platform
• Ship tracking data• Port traffic frequency• Time in port• Real time
Shipping Automated Information System (AIS) data
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
02000400060008000
10000120001400016000
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Aug-
08Ja
n-09
Jun-
09N
ov-0
9Ap
r-10
Sep-
10Fe
b-11
Jul-1
1D
ec-1
1M
ay-1
2O
ct-1
2M
ar-1
3Au
g-13
Jan-
14Ju
n-14
Nov
-14
Apr-1
5Se
p-15
Feb-
16Ju
l-16
Dec
-16
May
-17
Oct
-17
Mar
-18
Aug-
18
Tax due re-input Repayment re-input Repayment (RHS)
QonQ, CP, SA
GDP growth rate/ %
Diff
. ind
ex
• VAT is a good indicator of large change
• Last recession identified 5 months before official statistics
• Novel repayments indicators show financial stress
• Care with over-interpretation and beware bias!
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
Data Science Campus | datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk | [email protected] | @DataSciCampus
Data & statistics only have value when used
VAT, Shipping GPS & road traffic sources add to our existing official statistics
Big data opportunity. Faster detailed understanding
We are all learning! Collaborate and share
web: datasciencecampus.ons.gov.ukemail: [email protected]: @DataSciCampus
Faster economic indicators from big data
Tom Smith, @_datasmithDirector, ONS Data Science Campus