fayetteville demographic public summary schools fall 2017 · fayetteville public schools....

Fayetteville Public Schools

DemographicSummary

Fall 2017

Learn from Yesterday…Understand Today…Plan for Tomorrow

Economic ConditionsUnemployment Rate, January 2007 – August 2017

2

2.7

3.5

4.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-

07Ap

r-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr-

08Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-

10Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-12

Apr-

12Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3O

ct-1

3Ja

n-14

Apr-

14Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5Ja

n-16

Apr-

16Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Unemployment Rate, Jan 2007 - Aug 2017

Fayetteville MSA Arkansas US

• The Fayetteville MSA had an August 2017 unemployment rate below 3%

• This is down 0.1% since August of 2016

• The state of Arkansas’ August 2017 unemployment rate was 3.5%

Source: US Census Bureau

Economic Conditions Fayetteville MSA Employment Growth and Labor Force, 2007 - 2017

3

175,000

195,000

215,000

235,000

255,000

275,000

295,000

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-

07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-

08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Total Employment and Labor Force, Jan 2007 - Aug 2017

Employment Labor Force

• The Fayetteville MSA has nearly 270,000 employed persons, a rise of 4.6% over the same month a year ago

• Both the labor force and total employment have also risen steadily since 2014 within the Fayetteville MSA

• Since January 2014, total employment has grown by more than 24%

24.2% growth since 2014

Source: US Census Bureau

Local Economic ConditionsFayetteville MSA Job Growth, 2007 - 2017

4

• The Fayetteville MSA has seen the strongest job growth and currently has the lowest unemployment rate in the State

• The Fayetteville MSA had 3.5% employment growth year over year, and more than a 28% rise since 2010

• This represents 10% more job growth than the second fastest growing MSA, Jonesboro

Source: Arkansas Economist: The Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Local Economic Conditions

5

Hospital Expansion Continues• Washington Regional Medical Center is underway with a

$44 million expansion • The expansion will add 23,850 sq ft of space and is

expected to be complete in early 2019• This comes just one year after a $60 million expansion that

added 100 beds and support space• The hospital has experienced “faster than expected growth

in demand” resulting in accelerated expansion plans• The hospital’s long term plans include additional space for

operating rooms, new technology and additional beds, as well as an expansion of the Women and Infants Center and an administrative and education center

Additional Growth in Fayetteville• TheatreSquared off Spring and West started construction on a new 51,500 sq ft facility. The

main stage will seat 280 guests with an additional 99 seats in a Black Box theater. The theater is set to open in the fall of 2019

• A Medical Marijuana Facility, one of the state’s first, could come to Fayetteville off Pump Station Road. The 5 acre site would house a 30,000 sq ft cultivation field and processing plant if the owner receives the proper licensing and approval from the state. A decision is set to be made by November 2017. The facility would employ 40 – 50 people and could expand in the future as the industry matures.

• Wood Stone is opening a second location in Fayetteville by this winter on Mall Ave• Jimmy’s Egg is opening a breakfast restaurant on the site of the old Denny’s on W Martin

Luther King Jr Blvd• Additional retailers coming to new locations in the city include: Dairy Queen, Starbucks,

McLain Carwash, Altitude Trampoline Park, Hammans Nursery, Fossil Cove Brewery, Panera Bread, and retail shopping space is being added in the East End at Mission Height, Forest Hills Shopping Center and Moldenhauer Retail Center on S School Ave

Source: City of Fayetteville, Talk Business & Politics website, Fayetteville Flyer

Arkansas Public Schools- Total Enrollment

6Source: ADE Data Center

Arkansas Public Schools

7

465,613

466,391

465,801467,061

468,066

468,656

471,867 474,995

476,083

476,049

477,268

450,000

455,000

460,000

465,000

470,000

475,000

480,000

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Total State Enrollment, 2006/07 - 2016/17

Source: ADE Data Center

Arkansas Public Schools- Enrollment Growth

8Source: ADE Data Center

Arkansas Public Schools- Enrollment Growth

9

778

-590

1,2601,005

590

3,211 3,128

1,088

-34

1,219

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Year Over Year Change in State Enrollment, 2006/07 - 2016/17

Year Over Year Change


Arkansas Public School Growth

10

Rank District2011/12 District

Enrollment

2016/17 District

Enrollment

5 Year Growth

5 Year % Growth

1 Bentonville 14,123 16,609 2,486 17.6%2 Springdale 19,376 21,527 2,151 11.1%3 Rogers 14,145 15,399 1,254 8.9%4 Fayetteville 9,017 9,864 847 9.4%5 Bryant 8,291 9,134 843 10.2%6 Brookland 1,732 2,324 592 34.2%7 Jonesboro 5,438 5,964 526 9.7%8 Benton 4,618 5,108 490 10.6%9 Conway 9,432 9,920 488 5.2%

10 Fort Smith 13,896 14,341 445 3.2%11 Lakeside 3,088 3,469 381 12.3%12 Pea Ridge 1,695 2,066 371 21.9%13 Greenbrier 3,166 3,500 334 10.5%14 Smackover 822 1,145 323 39.3%15 Farmington 2,214 2,503 289 13.1%16 Siloam Springs 3,922 4,211 289 7.4%17 Valley View 2,464 2,743 279 11.3%18 Greene County Tech 3,377 3,632 255 7.6%19 Southside 1,554 1,772 218 14.0%20 Lamar 1,105 1,314 209 18.9%


Area Housing MarketAnnual Median Home Sale Price of the 5 largest cities in AR

11

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Median Home Sale Price, 2000 - 2016Little Rock Fort Smith Fayetteville Springdale Jonesboro

Source: Zillow Data Center

City 2000 Med Sale Price

2016 Med Sale Price Change Percent

ChangeFayetteville $111,125 $181,175 $70,050 63.00%Little Rock $105,700 $176,096 $70,396 66.60%Springdale $84,464 $148,238 $63,774 75.50%Jonesboro $82,383 $138,126 $55,743 67.70%Fort Smith $85,963 $108,207 $22,244 25.90%

Average $93,927 $150,368 $56,441 59.70%

Fayetteville Public Schools Home SalesJanuary- August 2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type

12

• Within the district there were roughly 1,220 home sales in 2017, and 12% were of new homes

• The average sale price in 2017 for a new home within the district is $264,520

• The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home within the district is $226,242

Source: Metrostudy and Washington County Deed Transactions

Regular Resale83.5%

Foreclosure1.2%

REO Sale3.1%

New Home Sale12.1%

2017 District Home Sales

by Type

Fayetteville Housing ActivityNew Residential Permits Issued by the City of Fayetteville, Jan 2013 – Aug 2017

13

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017

New Residential Permits, 2013 - Aug 2017

SF DE SF AT Duplex

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017SF Detached 336 347 358 484 268SF Attached 20 38 14 0 27Duplex 22 83 4 22 16

Total Units 400 551 380 528 327SF Demolition N/A 20 47 57 32Source: City of

Fayetteville Economic Development summary reports

Fayetteville Public Schools Housing Overview

14

• Within the Fayetteville Public School District there are more than 1,120 lots currently available to build on

• Within the district there are more than 2,500 planned future lots

• Within the Fayetteville Public Schools there are between 400 and 500 new homes being added a year

Fayetteville Public Schools Multi-Family Overview

15

• Within the district there are about 660 multi-family units under construction

• There are about 510 planned future multi-family units within the district, including a 133 unit senior living development

Residential Activity

16

Villages of Sloanbrooke• Approx. 500 planned total lots• Approx. 403 future lots• 25 occupied• 40 U/C• Built out of Phase 1 with 97

lots by mid 2018• Groundwork underway on

Phase 2 with 104 lots, delivering November 2017

• Building 70-80 homes a year• $165K - $350K • Current student yield = 0.2• Owl Creek Elementary

12 lots delivered along Persimmon St2 homes U/C

Building out by end of 2018

Wedington Apartments• 40 future MF units• Awarded tax-credits in 2017• Anticipate all units complete

and leasing by September 2019


17

Mountain Ranch• 115 occupied• 6 homes U/C• Phase 3 with 87 lots

delivered and homebuilding • Additional ~135 acres

planned for future mixed use development in 3-5+ years

• Building ~30 homes a year• $220K - $500K• 2 future MF sites• Current student yield = 0.19• Owl Creek Elementary

Phase 3 Brooklands

Future Development

Forest Hills• 202 total lots• 21 occupied• 90 futures• Phase 1 with 31 townhomes

delivered and building• Phase 2 with 81 lots delivered July

2017, homebuilding underway• Future Phase 3 with approx. 90 lots

planned• Future 55 unit MF complex, The

Flats at Forest Hills• Grading permit approved but waiting

on financing, leasing possible 2019• 0 current students • Owl Creek Elementary


18

Hawkins House at Shiloh Townhomes

128 total units80 complete and leasing

18 units U/CMarketing to U of A studentsCurrent student yield = 0.08

The Coves• 207 total lots• 109 future lots• 81 occupied• 7 U/C• Groundwork underway on

Phase 3 with 52 lots, homebuilding pending final plat approval

• Building 20-30 a year• $150K - $175K• Current student yield = 0.32• Owl Creek Elementary

25 total duplex lots delivered with first homes underway

50 total units


19

57 future Townhome units on Macey Dr

Oakbrooke• 120 total lots• 32 occupied• 3 U/C• Building 3-5 homes a year• $315K - $500K• Current student yield = 0.03• Holcomb Elementary

Rupple Meadows• 67 total lots • 15 SF homes• 52 Duplex units• 119 total units• Homebuilding starting by

the end of 2017 pending final plat approval

• Holcomb Elementary

Links at Fayetteville• Mixed use development

with Apartment units and rental homes

• 1,024 APT units complete and leasing

• 64 APT units U/C• 39 rental homes U/C, first

units complete and leasing • 27 future ROW homes

starting early 2018• Current student yield = 0.05• Split between Holcomb and

Owl Creek Elementary


20

~100 acres for future SF

development

Hughmount Village• 132 delivered lots• Approx 40 homes occupied• 19 U/C• Building 30-40 homes a year• $265K - $380K • Current student yield = 0.43• Holcomb Elementary

Preliminary plat approved for 58 future TH lots and 22 SF lotsHomes starting mid to late 2018

Razorback Golf Course• Future mixed use development• Rezoning denied for higher density mixed

use with 480 MF units and SF homes• Rezoning approved for 150 SF lots• No MF units planned at this time• No plats/plans submitted at this time• Likely 2-3 years from homebuilding • Holcomb Elementary

Plans underway for approx. 75 future SF lots

Crystal Springs225 existing homes

Current student yield = 0.44Approx. 275 future lots

planned on available landNo movement at this time


21

Haven Campus Communities

• Future 162 unit apartment complex for U of A students

• Minimal student impact expected

Poplar Street MH Community

• Existing manufactured home community has been purchased and will be demolished

• Site plan under review for a future 191 unit apartment complex on site

• 20 current students in the MH community

• Asbell Elementary

Hazel Street Townhomes

8 duplex units completed

summer 2017$300K per unit


22

University Brownstones 14 total units

Marketed to U of A Students

Henson Duplexes

20 total units with 10 U/C

Complete and leasing for fall 2018 semester

12 future “cluster house” units Construction starting 2018


23

Park Meadows• Preliminary plat approved for

290 future lots on 62 acres• Grading permit under review• Groundwork starting by the

end of 2017• Homes starting late 2018• Washington Elementary

Homes at Willow Bend• 77 total future lots• Preliminary plat approved March

2016, groundwork underway with homes starting early 2018

• 26 homes dedicated to residents making 50-80% AMI

• Additional 26 homes reserved for residents making 80-100% AMI

• 25 market rate homes• Anticipate building 15-20 homes

a year• Washington Elementary

South St Cottages11 total lots

2 U/C


24

Mountain Vista• 52 total future lots• Prelim plat approved Dec 2016• Homes starting 2018• Washington Elementary

Riverwalk • Approx. 225 total lots• Approx. 170 future lots• 38 occupied• 3 U/C• Preliminary plat under review

for Phase 2 with 49 lots• Building 15-20 homes a year• $250K - $300K • Current student yield = 0.53• Happy Hollow Elementary


25

Falling Waters• Original plan for 258 lots on 137

acres submitted in 2005• Preliminary plat approved for Phase 1

w/ 49 lots on 35 acres in Dec 2016• No additional plats/permits submitted• Approx. 190 total future lots based on

new density• Happy Hollow Elementary

The Hamptons• 122 total lots• 53 future lots• 55 occupied• Phase 2&3 with 53 lots

preliminary plat approved, homes starting spring 2018

• Building 10-15 a year• Current student yield = 0.36• Happy Hollow Elementary

Stonebridge Meadows Golf Community

12 future lots3 U/C

Building 5-10 a yearCurrent student yield = 0.51

Meadows at Stonebridge• AKA Villas at Stonebridge• Preliminary plat for 125 total lots is under

review with the City• Groundwork could start mid to late 2018• Expired Planned Zoning District on property• Happy Hollow Elementary


26

Quarry Trace• 115 total lots• 75 occupied• 14 U/C• Built out by mid 2018• $135K - $160K• Current student yield = 0.35• Happy Hollow Elementary

Millers Meadow• 90 total lots• 85 occupied• 5 final lots available• Built out by mid 2018• Current student yield = 0.21• Happy Hollow Elementary

Stonecrest• 45 total lots• 21 occupied• 2 finished vacant• 3 homes starting Sept 2017• Built out by end of 2018• $175K+• Current student yield = 0.95• Happy Hollow Elementary


27

Whistler Woods24 future lots Prelim plat

under review

Summit Place• 113 total lots• 45 future lots• 7 occupied• 2 U/C• 45 future lots in Phase 2 with

final plat approved Feb 2017• Lots starting at $80K• Custom home building • Current student yield = 0.14• Root Elementary

Mission Heights• 112 total lots• 69 future lots• 3 occupied• 9 U/C• Building 5-10 a year• $370K - $590K • 16 future MF units above

retail development • 0 current students• Root Elementary

Keenan50 acre site

10 acres rezoned for mixed use residential


28

Havenwood15 lots delivered

Chapel ViewFinal 2 homes U/C

Current student yield = 0.81

Bridgewater EstatesFinal 3 lots available

2 U/CCurrent yield = 1.24 Sloan Estates

• 62 total lots• 44 occupied• 3 U/C• Building 5-8 homes a year• $370K - $450K• Current student yield = 0.82• Vandergriff Elementary

Reindl Woods8 lots deliveredLarge custom

homes

Parkerman Estates3 occupied

2 U/CCurrent yield = 0.66

Starr Lake22 future lots


29

Brookstone Woods45 delivered lotsNo movement 2-3 years from homebuilding

Waterford Estate at Hissom Ranch

• 207 total lots• 192 occupied• 4 U/C • 11 VDL• Built out by spring 2018• Had been building 30+

homes annually• Current student yield = 0.79• Vandergriff Elementary

Knolls• 73 total lots• 18 occupied• 1 U/C• Lots sold individually• Custom home builds• Building ~5 homes a year• Current student yield = 0.5• Vandergriff Elementary


30

Fayetteville Housing Authority• The City of Fayetteville has plans

underway to demolish the existing 40 units at Willow Heights

• The residents will be moved to the Morgan Manor apartments

• Morgan Manor is set to add 58 new units to their existing 52 units in order to accommodate Willow Heights residents

• Plans under review with the City of Fayetteville

• Expansion of Morgan Manor will have units leasing in 2019

• Willow Heights property will likely be sold in 1-2 years

• Willow Heights student yield = 0.68• Morgan Manor student yield = 0.52

Willow Heights

Morgan Manor

Multi-Family Yield Analysis

31

• Fayetteville Public Schools has more than 1,100 students residing in 10,600 multi-family units

• The average district multi-family complex yield is 0.11 MF Comparison 2016-17 2017-18 Change

Students 1,247 1,173 -74

Average Yield 0.12 0.11 -0.01

Units 10,339 10,666 327

Apartment and Single Family Analysis

32

• In the last year, the number of students residing in multi-family units has declined slightly

• The percent of students residing in single family homes has risen, while the single family home yield has remained flat

• The district single family yield is 0.35, while the multi-family yield is 0.11

2016/17 2017/18 ChangeOut of District 378 422 44Unmatched 188 132 -56Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 9,448 9,438 -10Multi-Family

Students in MF 1,247 1,173 -74MF Units 10,339 10,666 327% Students in MF 13.2% 12.4% -0.8%MF Yield 0.12 0.11 -0.01

Single FamilyStudents in SF 8,201 8,265 64SF Parcels 23,140 23,337 197% Students in SF 86.8% 87.6% 0.8%SF Yield 0.35 0.35 0.0

Fayetteville Public Schools Student Density (Sept 2017)

33

*Out of District –Students whose addresses mapped outside of the district boundaries

• Fayetteville Public Schools has 422 students residing outside the district

• This represents 4.2% of the total student body

Intra-District Transfers

34

• Among students that geocode within the district, 425 elementary students attend a school that they do not reside within

• This is 10.8% of the total elementary population within the district

• 108 intermediate students, or 7.3% of the population transfer to a different campus than where they reside

• 140 middle school students, including 24 attending the Virtual Academy, attend a school where they do not reside. This is 10.5% of all middle school students within the district

Fayetteville Public Schools have 673 students that are intra-district transfers, this is just over 7% of the total student body

Intra-District Transfers

35

Residing Campus Transferring Out Transferring In NetASBELL ELEM 61 33 -28BUTTERFIELD ELEM 49 19 -30HAPPY HOLLOW ELEM 52 40 -12HOLCOMB ELEM 69 10 -59LEVERETT ELEM 48 83 35OWL CREEK ELEM 51 79 28ROOT ELEM 35 37 2VANDERGRIFF ELEM 20 70 50WASHINGTON ELEM 40 48 8

Elementary Intermediate

Middle

Residing Campus Transferring Out Transferring In NetHOLT INT 41 35 -6MCNAIR INT 26 30 4OWL CREEK INT 41 33 -8

Residing Campus Transferring Out Transferring In NetRAMAY JH 105 27 -78WOODLAND JH 35 89 54VIRTUAL ACADEMY 0 24 24

Historical Enrollment By Grade Level

36

Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total

Total Growth

% Growth

2013/14 845 831 750 785 718 746 741 705 718 697 621 677 587 9,4212014/15 767 835 802 752 766 705 734 733 690 733 699 612 675 9,503 82 0.87%2015/16 785 771 840 796 765 765 715 722 741 699 752 705 605 9,661 158 1.66%2016/17 866 782 758 824 805 753 778 699 718 753 711 731 705 9,883 222 2.30%2017/18 886 846 806 730 863 808 761 731 698 780 736 690 704 10,039 156 1.58%

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

Survival Cohorts K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th

3 year avg 1.050 0.993 1.007 0.979 1.025 0.996 1.014 0.967 1.001 1.039 1.007 0.984 0.9842014/15 0.908 0.988 0.965 1.003 0.976 0.982 0.984 0.989 0.979 1.021 1.003 0.986 0.9972015/16 1.023 1.005 1.006 0.993 1.017 0.999 1.014 0.984 1.011 1.013 1.026 1.009 0.9892016/17 1.103 0.996 0.983 0.981 1.011 0.984 1.017 0.978 0.994 1.016 1.017 0.972 1.0002017/18 1.023 0.977 1.031 0.963 1.047 1.004 1.011 0.940 0.999 1.086 0.977 0.970 0.963

Five Year ForecastBy Grade Level


37

• Fayetteville Public Schools may enroll more than 10,500 students by 2020

• 5 year growth = 911 students

• 2022/23 enrollment = 10,950 students

Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth%

Growth2013/14 845 831 750 785 718 746 741 705 718 697 621 677 587 9,4212014/15 767 835 802 752 766 705 734 733 690 733 699 612 675 9,503 82 0.87%2015/16 785 771 840 796 765 765 715 722 741 699 752 705 605 9,661 158 1.66%2016/17 866 782 758 824 805 753 778 699 718 753 711 731 705 9,883 222 2.30%2017/18 886 846 806 730 863 808 761 731 698 780 736 690 704 10,039 156 1.58%2018/19 881 888 875 810 752 856 813 717 709 748 740 718 674 10,179 140 1.40%2019/20 849 897 915 868 823 749 870 762 705 766 714 711 700 10,329 150 1.47%2020/21 951 852 932 916 875 824 756 818 746 758 729 692 693 10,542 212 2.05%2021/22 932 953 864 936 940 868 834 713 802 803 722 703 682 10,753 211 2.00%2022/23 928 936 954 865 959 934 879 785 698 860 765 698 689 10,950 197 1.84%

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

38

• Fayetteville Public Schools may enroll more than 11,000 students by 2023

• 10 year growth = 1,867 students

• 2027/28 enrollment = 11,906 students

Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth%

Growth2013/14 845 831 750 785 718 746 741 705 718 697 621 677 587 9,4212014/15 767 835 802 752 766 705 734 733 690 733 699 612 675 9,503 82 0.87%2015/16 785 771 840 796 765 765 715 722 741 699 752 705 605 9,661 158 1.66%2016/17 866 782 758 824 805 753 778 699 718 753 711 731 705 9,883 222 2.30%2017/18 886 846 806 730 863 808 761 731 698 780 736 690 704 10,039 156 1.58%2018/19 881 888 875 810 752 856 813 717 709 748 740 718 674 10,179 140 1.40%2019/20 849 897 915 868 823 749 870 762 705 766 714 711 700 10,329 150 1.47%2020/21 951 852 932 916 875 824 756 818 746 758 729 692 693 10,542 212 2.05%2021/22 932 953 864 936 940 868 834 713 802 803 722 703 682 10,753 211 2.00%2022/23 928 936 954 865 959 934 879 785 698 860 765 698 689 10,950 197 1.84%2023/24 938 937 956 943 880 955 945 825 769 753 819 736 686 11,143 193 1.76%2024/25 934 937 943 961 963 875 966 887 808 826 717 786 718 11,321 178 1.60%2025/26 960 963 941 940 984 963 885 905 869 866 787 693 762 11,519 197 1.74%2026/27 972 974 977 943 959 986 974 829 887 929 825 757 681 11,694 175 1.52%2027/28 966 973 984 977 963 960 997 912 812 948 885 791 737 11,906 213 1.82%


Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

39

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

• Holcomb Elementary could enroll more than 700 students by next fall, and more than 800 students by 2020

• By 2020, three campuses are expected to be over stated capacity

• Fayetteville Public Schools could enroll more than 4,500 elementary students by 2021

Maximum Capacity

History Current Enrollment ProjectionsCAMPUS 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

Asbell Elementary 410 305 324 327 323 312 311 307 307 308 308 310 311Butterfield Trail Elementary 591 530 533 536 516 534 525 499 486 495 505 522 534Happy Hollow Elementary 545 471 498 497 505 527 541 557 562 578 576 578 581Holcomb Elementary 717 621 657 710 755 808 834 849 839 853 850 844 852Leverett Elementary 357 289 276 274 271 270 274 278 291 294 299 305 302Root Elementary 487 411 415 413 408 397 395 397 403 414 417 417 416Vandergriff Elementary 672 598 670 665 676 707 727 705 688 683 684 687 691Washington Elementary 359 332 312 309 351 366 380 391 396 410 427 424 421Owl Creek School (K-4th) 562 437 437 465 499 552 588 608 632 654 672 688 704ELEMENTARY TOTALS 4,700 3,994 4,122 4,197 4,304 4,473 4,575 4,591 4,604 4,687 4,737 4,774 4,813Elementary Absolute Change 37 128 75 107 170 101 16 13 83 50 37 39Elementary Percent Change 0.94% 3.20% 1.83% 2.54% 3.94% 2.26% 0.35% 0.28% 1.81% 1.07% 0.78% 0.81%

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

40

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

• McNair Middle School is expected to enroll more than 815 studentsby next fall, and reach enrollment capacity by 2022

• The Junior High Schools and Fayetteville High School have enoughcapacity to sustain the next 10 years of enrollment growth

Maximum Capacity

History Current Enrollment ProjectionsCAMPUS 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

Holt Middle School 865 441 458 470 460 466 505 543 586 567 561 595 580McNair Middle School 850 755 747 819 821 802 832 870 897 844 846 886 869Owl Creek School (5th-6th) 364 318 331 354 309 285 337 373 390 403 414 452 481MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 2,079 1,514 1,536 1,643 1,590 1,553 1,674 1,786 1,873 1,814 1,821 1,933 1,930Mid Absolute Change 34 22 107 -53 -37 121 112 87 -59 7 112 -3Mid Percent Change 2.30% 1.45% 6.97% -3.23% -2.33% 7.79% 6.69% 4.87% -3.15% 0.39% 6.15% -0.16%Ramay Junior High 925 631 638 633 663 704 657 637 709 765 807 798 805Woodland Junior High 906 762 746 758 764 823 820 808 847 892 929 880 881JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 1,831 1,393 1,384 1,391 1,427 1,527 1,477 1,445 1,556 1,657 1,736 1,678 1,686Junior High Absolute Change -70 -9 7 36 100 -50 -32 111 101 79 -58 8Junior High Percent Change -4.78% -0.65% 0.51% 2.59% 7.01% -3.27% -2.17% 7.68% 6.49% 4.77% -3.34% 0.48%Fayetteville High School 3,200 2,699 2,577 2,547 2,558 2,539 2,577 2,679 2,661 2,714 2,775 2,859 3,028Fayetteville Virtual Academy 49 214 195 245 243 244 243 244 244 244 244 244ALLPS 201 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,200 2,949 2,997 2,948 3,009 2,988 3,027 3,128 3,111 3,164 3,225 3,309 3,478High School Absolute Change 171 48 -49 61 -20 39 102 -18 53 61 84 169High School Percent Change 6.16% 1.63% -1.63% 2.05% -0.68% 1.29% 3.36% -0.57% 1.70% 1.93% 2.60% 5.11%DISTRICT TOTALS 11,810 9,850 10,039 10,179 10,329 10,542 10,753 10,950 11,143 11,321 11,519 11,694 11,906District Absolute Change 172 189 140 150 212 211 197 193 178 197 175 213District Percent Change 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8%

Summary• The Fayetteville area’s unemployment rate is below 3%.

• The Fayetteville MSA had 3.5% employment growth year over year, and more than a 28% rise since 2010.

• Fayetteville Public Schools is the 4th fastest growing district in Arkansas in the last 5 years.

• About 10% of elementary students that reside within the district transfer to a different elementary school than the zone they reside within.

• Fayetteville Public Schools may add 911 students in the next 5 years, for a fall 2022 enrollment of 10,950.

• Fayetteville Public Schools is projected to enroll 11,906 students for the 2027/28 school year.

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Key Takeaway

Fayetteville Public Schools will experience steady enrollment growth over the next 5 to 10 years due to the area’s strong housing and job market

Bob Templeton Templeton Demographics

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fayetteville demographic public summary schools fall 2017 · fayetteville public schools....

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