fcb partners webinar: robots are the next blackbelts
TRANSCRIPT
Robots Are the Next Blackbelts
FCB Webinar Bruce Miyashita and Brad Power July 15, 2015 For more informa@on go to fcbpartners.com or call Lindsay Field 617 245 0265
Robots of the Dawn: Automa@on, Ar@ficial Intelligence, and What It Means for the Future of
Work
Bruce Miyashita July 2015
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Tom & Nancy Miyashita Founda3on, Founder (current)
Miyashita Advisory, Consultant (2012-‐current)
BMO Financial Group, Head Process COE (2012-‐2015)
Maple Leaf Foods, VP Six Sigma (1999-‐2011)
Bombardier Inc., Head Process Excellence (1997-‐1999)
McKinsey & Company, Opera3ons Consultant
(1988-‐1997)
IBM, Analyst Human Factors Lab (1984-‐1988)
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Near-‐term (today): Need for synthesis of the “process” and the “IT” spheres
Medium-‐term (next 5 years): transforma3ve opportunity to achieve true “lean” process.
Longer-‐term (Star3ng now and for next genera3ons): Key arena for re-‐engineering and transforma3ve thinking & leadership is society much more than process and technology.
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1 Near-‐term (today): Selec3on, training, development, and deployment of process excellence professionals urgently requires a increased synthesis of the “process” and the “IT” spheres.
à How processes are mapped and described à More standardized language and structure for process models à Cross-‐fer3liza3on of process concepts e.g. lean flow and SOA à Opportunity to iden3fy core process know-‐how to enable AI
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“We cannot simply depend on the machines that only repeat the same task over and over again,” Kawai said. “To be the master of the machine, you have to have the knowledge and the skills to teach the machine.”
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2 Medium-‐term (next 5 years): Accelera3ng pace of innova3on in cloud compu3ng, 3D prin3ng, AI, vision systems etc. provides transforma3ve opportunity to achieve true “lean” process.
à Not an ques3on of “if”; ingenuity and marketplace of ideas will achieve enormous breakthroughs in these and other areas
à Overall, these are posi3ve and opportunity genera3ng developments
à Opportunity for true lean flow processes
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Industrial Percep3on Inc. – spa@al percep@on, dexterity required for package handling
Grabit Inc. – electrosta@c handling
Baxter – easy-‐to-‐program material handling robot
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Momentum Machines Inc – integrated, automated kitchen to create and cook 6 custom hamburgers per minute
Nike FlyKnit – reduc@on labor, material waste; possibility of 1-‐piece lean flow
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Kiva Systems (Amazon) – robots for warehouse materials movement
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AVT Inc -‐ Self-‐serve retail vending machines and kiosks moving rapidly into hard goods (e.g. electronics) -‐ $1.1 trillion market in 2015
Perfume
Selfridge’s “Love Machine” at St. Mar@ns Lane Hotel
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Harvest Automa3on (Boston) – robot opera@on of nurseries and greenhouses
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ACFR (Australian Centre for Field Robo3cs) – robots to con@nuously measure soil moisture and nutri@on and deliver micro injec@ons of fluid to individual plants and even specific fruits on a plant
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SocWare Automa3on (Atlanta) – robots able to sew garments
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But, not just “blue collar”
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Watson Medical used to diagnose illnesses and refine pa@ent treatment plans WatsonPaths is training med students at Cleveland Clinic and University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center.
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Watson crea@ng personalized, natural language sales clerks
Ci3group working with Watson technology to provide personalized financial, tax and estate advice
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Replaced 30,000 business analysts at 6,000 clients with just 180 employees; “I don’t know what all those other people will do now, but this isn’t work they can do anymore. It’s a winner-‐takes-‐all consolida3on.” Roman Stanek, CEO Good Data
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Robot picks medica3ons...
…prepares doses… …dispenses bar-‐coded packets with RFID tags
Automated pharmacy at University of California Medical Center
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3 Longer-‐term (Star3ng now and for next genera3ons)
à We should leverage AI to augment our capabili3es; à Yes, there are and will be job-‐crea3ng opportuni3es
generated by these new technologies (e.g. designing robots, building new AI systems);
à But this will not create enough jobs to sustain our current model of produc3ve ci3zenship and consumer-‐driven economies;
à Need to have a rate of social innova3on as transforma3ve as technological innova3on
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“Our device isn’t meant to make employees more efficient. It’s meant to completely obviate them." Momentum Machines cofounder Alexandros Vardakostas
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Without Mass Employment, Can There Be Mass Consumers?
John Skipper of ESPN: “ESPN is a mass-‐product, and yet that service could eventually be out of reach for a large frac@on of our audience if chronic under-‐employment becomes the norm. Wage stagna@on is the biggest threat to the TV business.” (The Atlan@c, August 2013)
Parkdale Mills (processes 60% of U.S. cojon) – tex@le factory in Gaffney, South Carolina – requires 140 employees compared to 2,000 in 1980 (NYT, September 2013)
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Macro Situa3on
U.S. business worked the same number of hours in 2013 as in 1998—194 billion hours even though the U.S popula@on gained over 40 million people and American businesses produced $11.8 trillion or 42 percent more output in 2013 than1998.
What can labor produc@vity tell us about the U.S. economy? Shawn Sprague -‐ economist in the Office of Produc@vity and Technology, U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta@s@cs
1998 2013
+42% $8,300 B
$11,800 B
194 billion labor hours
$43 output per hour
$61 output per hour
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Google 2014 Profit: $14.5 billion
Employees: 53,600
Profit/Employee: $270,000
GM 1979 Profit: $11.0 billion (adj. for infla3on) Employees: 853,000
Profit/Employee: $12,900
Emp Profit/ Emp Emp Profit/ Emp
$270 K
$12.9 K 53,600
853,000
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Who Will Buy Your Stuff? Ford execu3ve: [poin3ng to new robots in a car assembly plant] “Walter, how are you going to get these robots to pay union dues?” Union Head Walter Reuther: “How are you going to get them to buy your cars?”
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March 31, 1968 – Na3onal Cathedral, Washington D.C.
“Remaining Awake Through a Great Revolu3on”
“It is a triple revolu3on: that is, a technological revolu3on, with the impact of automa3on and cyberna3on; then there is a revolu3on in weaponry, with the emergence of atomic and nuclear weapons of warfare; then there is a human rights revolu3on, with the freedom explosion that is taking place all over the world.”
Reverend Mar3n Luther King Jr. four days before his assassina3on, April 4th 1968
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1964: Ad Hoc Commivee on the Triple Revolu3on
Nobel laureate Linus Pauling; Nobel luareate Gunnar Myrdal et al.
The fundamental problem posed by the cyberna@on revolu@on in the U.S. is that it invalidates the general mechanism so far employed to undergird people’s rights as consumers. Up to this @me economic resources have been distributed on the basis of contribu@ons to produc@on, with machines and men compe@ng for employment on somewhat equal terms. Cyberna@on will result in an economy where poten3ally unlimited output can be achieved by systems of machines which will require lijle coopera@on from human beings.
March 1964 report issued to Congress and President Johnson
The Commijee proposes a guaranteed minimum income made possible by the “economy of abundance” and which would take the place of the patchwork of welfare measures
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The Bureau of Labor Sta3s3cs PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS BY INDUSTRY: MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES March 2012. Labor required to produce a unit of output -‐ declined in 73 percent of the industries. The rise in produc3vity in the American economy is more closely linked to cyberna3on then when it was first detailed in The Triple Revolu3on. A larger propor3on of the unemployment problem has become, as predicted, “structural” unemployment. The ascension of robots may mean fewer jobs are created in this country, even though rising labor and transporta3on costs in Asia and fears of intellectual property thec are now bringing some work back to the West.
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The wedges between produc3vity and median compensa3on growth By Lawrence Mishel, April 26, 2012
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Bowley’s Law Arthur Bowley, Bri3sh economist and sta3s3cian
Labor’s share of investment compared to capital (machinery) had remained constant over the long term (Bowley’s Law)…un3l now
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Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED); hjps://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PRS85006173 42
The Global Decline of the Labor Share Loukas Karabarbounis University of Chicago; Brent Neiman University of Chicago
October 2013
Of 59 countries with at least 15 years of data between 1975 and 2012, 42 exhibited downward trends in their labor shares.
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Re-‐engineering Society for a Post-‐Employment World
The Basic Guaranteed Minimum Income
Friedrich Hayek, Nobel laureate economist and poli@cal philosopher, in Law, Legisla+on and Liberty (1973-‐79)
The Nega3ve Income Tax
Milton Friedman et al
Re-‐thinking meaning of produc3ve ci3zenship Enabling consump3on to prime engine of economic cycle Rewarding non-‐tradi3onal (i.e. “a job”) contribu3ons to society
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46 ©2015 FCB Partners. All rights reserved.
FCB Courses and Conferences Event Descrip3on
Process Redesign Hammer Cer+fica+on Course Boston, MA September 15-‐18
Reengineering Innovation Advanced Cer+fica+on Course Boston, MA September 16-‐18
Process Owners in Action Advanced Cer+fica+on Course Boston, September 16-‐18
Power of Process Hammer Cer+fica+on Course Boston, MA November 16-‐17
Leading Transformation Hammer Cer+fica+on Course Boston, MA November 18-‐20
Measurement Master Class Boston, MA November 18
Fast-Cycle Software Best Prac+ce Conference, hosted by Na+onwide Columbus, OH September 9-‐11
For more informa@on go to fcbpartners.com or call Lindsay Field 617 245 0265
47 ©2015 FCB Partners. All rights reserved.
For More Informa3on FCB Partners
Lindsay Field, Program Director
617 245 0265 [email protected]