fcev market creation: h2 economic studies at nissan motor · pdf filefcev market creation: h2...
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FCEV Market Creat ion:
H2 Economic Studies at
NISSAN MOTOR
Takuya HASEGAWA Senior Innovation Researcher
NISSAN RESEARCH CENTER
June 26, 2014
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Today’s Topic
Energy Supply Responsibility to future FCEV customers
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? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
H2 Business Creation
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
H2 is …
Affordable?
Stable?
Safe?
Available?
Vehicle price?
Secured?
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H2 Profitability in the far Future
■Energy Cost Reduction by <CH2/ICEVH2/FCEV>
– Crude Oil €33B/y for 75M ICEVs
– Natural Gas €10B/y for 75M FCEVs
– Energy Purchase Reduction €23B/y (from 2010 Japan’s Statistics)
Japan USA Germany UK France Norway
Crude Oil
for Gasoline €33B
Natural Gas
for H2 €10B
Energy Cost
reduction
potential
€23B
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H2 Profitability in the near Future
■The ICEV in Japan from 1945
■It took over 60 years, even for Liquid Fuel (gasoline)
– Technology Demonstration Enough or Moderately needed
– Economics Demonstration Highly needed
€23B
60years
We are here We are not here
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Energy Cost Structures and the Risk
■Hydrogen Fixed Cost is twice as volatile as Gasoline Fixed Cost
Gasoline 100km about €10(price)
Hydrogen* 100km about €10(price)
*JHFC 2nd report (2010)
w/o tax w/o tax
Only if this equation holds
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ICEV
Business Sustainability: GRS Gasoline Refueling Station
2,000 (€10k over)
■Statistically, the ICEV price range starts from €10k in Japan
■The number of ICEVs per GRS PMA is 2,176 (about 2,000)
*Primary Market Area: an area of neighborhood ICEVs
(1-10km2/ST in Japan)
holds
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1,0
00,0
00
2,0
00,0
00
3,0
00,0
00
4,0
00,0
00
5,0
00,0
00
6,0
00,0
00
7,0
00,0
00
8,0
00,0
00
9,0
00,0
00
10,0
00,0
00
Price [JPY]
Acc
um
ula
ted
Sal
es
Rat
io [
%]
Yokohama
Osaka
Tokyo
Fukuoka
Kawasaki
Sakai
Kitakyusyu
Kobe
Copenhagen
Denmark
JAPAN
50K euro5M yen
35.1% Copenhagen
26.8% Denmark
10.5% TOKYO
2.3% JAPAN
Accumulated Sales Ratio
1,500
1,000
500
€1
0K
€5
0K
€50k or higher
€10k or higher
source: Nissan
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Business Sustainability: HRS Hydrogen Refueling Station
■“€50k or higher” is only 10.5% even in Tokyo (about 200)
■ICEV will be still attractive, FCEV may be 10% or less (about 20)
■“New car” is 8.6% of registered vehicles (about 2 per year)
200 (€50k over)
FCEV
Over Capacity
No
from 2 to
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Supply(HRS) and Demand(FCEV)
■Smaller HRSs (2,000200) are needed to secure “Energy
Supply Responsibility” in early business years
■In parallel, the FCEV value needs to be enhanced (20200)
without increasing the FCEV price
200 (€50k over) FCEV
holds
from 2 to
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Supply(HRS) and Demand(FCEV)
Station Downsizing
Value Enhancement
2 20 200 2000
FCEV FCEV
FCEVs per HRS PMA
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FCEV Demand Creation by HRSs
A) Large HRS
@Price €5M
Stations x20
@Demand 200
Stations x20
Demand Creation 4,000
B) Small HRS
@Price €0.5M
Stations x200
@Demand 200
Stations x200
Demand Creation 40,000
Total
Budget
€100M
200 200 > =
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H2 Price & Investment “Ceiling”
■H2
– FCEV running cost target = €0.06/km same as HEV
– FCEV fuel consumption = 100km/kg
– €0.06/km x 100km/kg = €6.0/kg Price Ceiling
– Variable Costs = €2.0/kg
– Fixed Costs + Profit = €4.0/kg
• Depreciation = €2.5/kg
■Small HRS
– FCEV Annual Driving Range = 10,000km/y
– Annual H2 consumption = 100kg/y
– 100kg/year x €2.5/kg = €250/y
– €250/y x 10y x FCEVs = €500k Invest. Ceiling 200
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Price Projection: Small HRSs
■How far can HRS ‘Price per Customer’ keep constant?
– Scaling Effect(+) vs. Mass-production Effect(-)
0 100 200 300 2,000
€2,000
€3,000
€1,000
0
HRS Supply Capacity = Number of FCEVs Needed
HR
S P
rice
per
Cu
sto
mer
€4,000
€5M x 1
€2,500
Scaling Effect
Mass-production Effect
@€0.5M x 10
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Portable: Rapid Expansion Capability
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Portable: A Historical Fact in Japan
■Number of ICEVs supported by a 600L Portable GRS (1951)
SUPPLY side
– ex. 500L x 40 weeks
– 20,000 L/y
DEMAND side
– 988 L/y-ICEV(1951)
– 20 ICEVs
– 19,760 L/y
Source: 「トミナガ100年のあゆみ」 22 rows x 5 columns = 110 Portable GRSs Supporting 110 x 20 = 2,200 ICEVs
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■‘Adjacent Household Coverage’ in 10 min is easy to achieve 90%
■‘Average Statistical Driving Time ’ is, however, much shorter than
10 min*
– Tokyo (1.3x𝜋
2) min, Hokkaido (2.8x
𝜋
2) min
Gasoline Station: 2159 Hydrogen Station: 75
Adjacent
Household
Coverage
99.8% Drive Time <10min
Adjacent
Household
Coverage
95.2%
Drive Time <10min
<5min
5<10min
10min<
<5min
5<10min
10min<
Usability: Driving Time to Stations
*to be submitted to elsewhere
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Energy Supply Responsibility
■1st scenario can be Subsidy-Sustained
■Next scenario must be Self-Sustained (>X5 subsidy leverage*)
■Full deployment of a business package, consisting of small and
portable HRSs and a relevant number of FCEVs, has a strong
impact to OEM’s business decision in early business years
* P. Devlin, IEA Hydrogen Technology Roadmap North America Workshop, Jan 28th, 2014
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Energy Supply Responsibility to future FCEV customers
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Thank you for your attention
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