fearless forecast 2019 - cbre.com.kh€¦ · cbre cambodia 46 fearless forecast 2019 0 5,000 10,000...

1 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA

13 FEBRUARY 2019

PRESENTED BY MARC TOWNSEND

CHAIRMAN, CBRE CAMBODIA

FEARLESS FORECAST

2019

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

CONTENTS

OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

LAND

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL

TOURISM & HOSPITALITY


Source: National Bank of Cambodia, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Asian Development Bank, World Bank & IMF

Source: National Bank of Cambodia & CBRE Research

Real Estate Indicators 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4

Prime Condo Price (USD/SQM) 3,108 3,126 3,168 3,212 3,147 3,211 3,226 3,260

Prime Office Rent (USD/SQM/Month) 22.2 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.6

Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019

* Average rate of ACLEDA, UCB, Canadia, Vattanac, Maybank, Bank of China, CIMB & ABA

Economic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F

GDP (Bn USD) 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.2 20.2 22.06 23.68 25.88

GDP Growth (%) 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.8

GDP Per Capita (USD) 973 1,042 1,135 1,171 1,265 1,372 1,451 1,563

Inflation (%) 2.9 2.9 3.9 1.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3

No. of Foreign Tourist Arrivals (Million) 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.2 N/A

Banking and Finance 2016 H1 2016 H2 2017 H1 2017 H2 2018 H1 2018 H2

KHR/USD (Official) 4,084 4,037 4,086 4,039 4,032 N/A

1-Year USD Lending rate (%)* 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.42 N/A

1-Year USD Deposit rate (%)* 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.35 4.41 N/A

FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

CAMBODIA DASHBOARD


Source: National Bank of Cambodia & World Bank


ECONOMIC GROWTH: CAMBODIA VS. ASEAN-5 VS. WORLD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Cambodia ASEAN-5 World

2017 2018E 2019F


Source: National Bank of Cambodia and Ministry of Economic and Finance


CREDIT AND CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

18.2%

13.7%

21.4%

18.2%

20.6%

17.0%

18.1%17.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p

48.6%

32.7%

20.9%

29.8%32.1%

23.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GROWTH OF CREDIT TO CONSTRUCTION SECTOR (JAN-OCT)

Source: National Institute of Statistic 2012-2017,

Ministry of Economic and Finance (2018-2019)

GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR TO MAINTAIN STRONG GROWTH DESPITE CREDIT SLOWDOWN.

6 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA

Source: ASEAN Briefing, The ASEAN Post, The Diplomat

MINIMUM WAGES – REGIONAL COMPARISONS (USD/MONTH)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Thailand * China * Vietnam * Cambodia Laos Myanmar

USD


CAMBODIA’S MINIMUM WAGE VS. THE REGION

*The lowest minimum wage rate in the country



CAMBODIA MORTGAGE MARKET

Source: CBRE Research

6.88% - 14%

Annual Interest Rate

Loan-to-Value

Payment Term

60% - 80%

Up to 25 years

9.6% - 18%

70% - 80%

Up to 15 years

12%

90% - 100%

Up to 17 years

COMMERCIAL BANKS MFIs DEVELOPERS



CAMBODIA CONSUMER LOANS

Source: Credit Bureau Cambodia 2019

51.7%47.6%

0.8%

Personal Finance Mortgage Credit card

CONSUMER LOAN BALANCE

$6.24B

2.07%

1.66%

0.64%

Credit Card Personal Finance Mortgage

NPL


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CAMBODIA’S MOST VULNERABLE

12 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIASource: Phnom Penh Post

FLOODED AREAS AS OF JULY 2018


LOCATIONS OF FLOODED AREAS IN CAMBODIA



RAPID TRANSFORMATION OF SIHANOUKVILLE

Photo: John Dough


J A N 2 0 1 7Source: EARTHRISE


RAPID TRANSFORMATION OF SIHANOUKVILLE

M AY 2 0 1 8

Photo from EARTHRISE Photo from EARTHRISE


TOTAL CASINO LICENCES

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2017 2018

53% INCREASE

59%

41%

Sihanoukville Others

SIHANOUKVILLE’S SHARE OF CASINOS

Source: asianews.it


CAMBODIA’S CASINOS ON THE RISE



COMPETITION IN CASINO INDUSTRY



GLOBAL POLITICS AND CAMBODIA

Photo: Khmer Times



THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR


€2

.0

€2

.5

€3

.0

€4

.1

€4

.6

€5

.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

VALUE OF PREFERENTIAL IMPORTS FROM CAMBODIA TO EU (IN BILLION EUROS)

66%

18%

4%4%

8%

Bangladesh 66%

Cambodia 18%

Mozambique 4%

Myanmar 4%

All other 8%

PREFERENTIAL IMPORTS FROM EBA BENEFICIARIES IN 2016

Source: European Commission 2018

Source: European Commission 2018


CAMBODIA AND “EVERYTHING BUT ARMS”

CAMBODIA

BANGLADESH



TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP




Impact of Brexit on Cambodia and other EBA Countries

Source: German Development Institute

Exports Real GDP Consumption-1.7% -1% -1.4%


Source: The World Bank

CHINA ANNUAL GDP GROWTH RATE (1990-2021F)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F

20

21

F


CHINA ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN



THE LONG-AWAITED BUILDING SAVED BY CHINESE DEVELOPERS

COMPLETION SCHEDULED BY END OF

2019WORKS RESUMED IN 2018 BY CHINESE DEVELOPERS

WAIMAN CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING AND

SHENZHEN HONGTAO DECORATION

BEGAN IN 2008 BY

YON WOO CAMBODIA

OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

LAND

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL



INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

Photo credit: Construction Property



CHINA’S ONE BELT ONE ROAD INITIATIVE


Source: Ministry of Public Works and Transport/ Property Area

PHNOM PENH-SIHANOUKVILLE EXPRESSWAY PLAN CURRENT STAGE OF THE PLAN

• CONSTRUCTION TO START WITHIN Q1 2019

190KMIN LENGTH

4LANES

89BRIDGES

3 REST STATIONS

7 INTERSECTIONS

25MIN WIDTH

• THE MINISTRY IS RESOLVING POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY

• 200 CHINESE CONSTRUCTION EXPERTS PRESENT IN CAMBODIA.

48 MONTHSTO BE COMPLETED


SIHANOUKVILLE’S INFRASTRUCTURE


3

THA

ILA

ND

VIETNAM

LAOS

A

C

1

D

F

E B

PHNOM PENH

SIHANOUKVILLE

EXPRESSWAY190KM - COMPLETE IN 48 MONTHS

1

NR. 3 EXPANSIONSTARTED IN APRIL 2018, EXPECTED COMPLETION IN 2021, EXPAND TO 24.5M WIDTH (82KM) & 12M WIDTH (70KM)

2

PHNOM PENH – HO CHI

MINH TOLLWAYCONNECTED VIA BAVET, EXPECTED

COMPLETION IN 20333

2


UPDATES ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FROM 2018




UPDATES ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 2018 - 2019

5

6 7

5. CHOAM CHAOFLYOVER & UNDERPASS

6. NATIONAL RING ROAD 37. ANLONG CHEN BRIDGE

Source: Google Maps, CBRE Research, Q1 2019




CHOAM CHAO FLYOVER & UNDERPASS

• BROKE GROUND IN JUNE 2018• ESTIMATED COMPLETION TIME - 30 MONTHS

RING ROAD 3

• BROKE GROUND JANUARY 14TH 2019• 53KM LONG

5 6




7. ANLONG CHEN BRIDGE• PART OF RING ROAD 3 DEVELOPMENT• EXPECTED COMPLETION 2021

COMPLETED AND OPENED IN 2018



MAJOR MIXED-USE PROJECTS

3

1

5

Source: Google Maps

2

4



MAJOR MIXED-USED PROJECTS

CHROY CHANGVAR SATELLITE CITY1

• DEVELOPER: OCIC• LOCATION: EAST OF CBD

• OVER 200 HECTARES OF LAND UNDER DEVELOPMENT• DEVELOPMENT FOCUS CURRENTLY ON LOW-RISE

COMMERCIAL ZONE | BUSINESS ZONE | RESIDENTIAL ZONERECREATIONAL PARK | CONVENTION CENTER

Photo: CBRE Cambodia & OCIC




PHNOM PENH CITY CENTER2

• DEVELOPER: SHUKAKU INC. • SITE AREA: 111.6 HECTARES

RESIDENTIAL ZONE | RETAIL | OFFICEINTERNATIONAL SCHOOL | RECREATIONAL PARK

Photo: Phnom Penh City Center




YUETAI’S PHNOM PENH HARBOUR

OFFICE TOWERS | RESIDENTIAL TOWERS HOTEL | URBAN PARK | CULTURAL CENTER

3

Photo: Phnom Penh Post & Yuetai Group

GROUND-BREAKING EXPECTED WITHIN Q1 2019




DIAMOND ISLAND

RESIDENTIAL ZONES | OFFICE | HOTEL | PARK | CONVENTION CENTER

4

Photo: Khmer Times

• MASTER DEVELOPER: OCIC • SITE AREA: MORE THAN 100 HECTARES




ING CITY5

• DEVELOPER: ING HOLDINGS• LOCATION: SOUTH OF PHNOM PENH

• SITE AREA: 2,572 HECTARES• CURRENTLY ON PHASE 1, COVERING 623 HECTARES

COMMERCIAL ZONE | BUSINESS ZONE | RESIDENTIAL ZONEINTERNATIONAL SCHOOL | RECREATIONAL PARK

Photo: ING Holdings



GREEN-NET STATISTICS: UPCOMING LESSER-KNOWN PROJECTS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Residential Mixed-Use Scheme Commercial


OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

LAND

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL



LAND | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND PRICES



INDICATIVE LAND PRICES 2010-2020F

2019F


REDUCTION IN GROWTH RATE DUE TO COMMERCIAL SUPPLY TRENDS

CENTRAL DISTRICTS

TOUL KORK DISTRICTVALUE UPLIFT DUE TO SHIFT FROM

RESIDENTIAL TO COMMERICAL LAND USE

LAND VALUE APPRECIATION FOCUSED AROUND IMPROVING INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORK

SUBURBAN DISTRICTS

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Daun Penh Chamkarmon 7Makara

Toul Kork Russey Keo Sen Sok

Chroy Changvar

RUSSEY KEO

SEN SOK

POR SEN CHEY

DANGKAO

MEANCHEY

CHAMKARMON

TOUL KORK

CHROY CHANGVAR

CHBAR AMPOV

*The land prices indicated are representative of sites from 0.3 ha to 3.0 ha in site area

DAUN PENH

2019F

2018

2017

0 2,000 4,000 6,000

2019F

2018

2017

0 1,000 2,000

2019F

2018

2017

0 2,000 4,000

2019F

2018

2017

0 1,000 2,000

2019F

2018

2017

0 2,000 4,000 6,000

7 MAKARA

2019F

2018

2017

0 2,000 4,000 6,000

2019F

2018

2017

0 1,000 2,000

2019F INDICATIVE LAND VALUE (USD/SQM)


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

HO CHI MINH BANGKOK PHNOM PENH

CBD Inner City


REGIONAL AVERAGE LAND VALUE COMPARISON


USD/SQM


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Dis

tric

t 1

Daun p

enh

Bin

h T

hanh

Dis

tric

t 3

Dis

tric

t 4

Cham

karm

on

Toul Kork

7 M

akara

Dis

tric

t 2

Dis

tric

t 5

Dis

tric

t 7

Dis

tric

t 8

Russey K

eo

Chro

y C

hangvar

Dis

tric

t 9

Sen S

ok

CBD SUBURBS

Penh

INNER CITY OUTER CITY

PHNOM PENH

HCMC


REGIONAL AVERAGE LAND VALUE COMPARISON


USD/SQM



2019 FORECAST

OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

LAND

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL



RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

RETAIL SUPPLY 2009-2020F

0

75,000

150,000

225,000

300,000

375,000

450,000

525,000

600,000

675,0002

00

9

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F

Shopping Mall Shopping Center Community Mall Retail Podium

2019F


ACROSS ALL SUB-SECTORS INFLUX IN SUPPLY

ANTICPATED COMMUNITY MALL STOCK

32,858 SQM

EXPECTED IN RETAIL PODIUM SEGMENTCOMPLETION DELAYS

MANAGEMENT & OPERATION A GROWING ISSUE AS A RESULT OF

CHANGING FORMATS & SCALE

SQM



RECENT ENTRANTS

SOARING NUMBER OF NEW RETAIL ENTRANTS IN 2018

29 NEW ENTRANTS

65 NEW ENTRANTS

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8


AND MANY MORE…

WELCOME TO THE KINGDOM!


NEW RETAIL ENTRANTS TO PHNOM PENH IN 2018



RETAIL VACANCY 2008-2020F

2019F VACANCY


ESTIMATED 4% INCREASE IN TOTAL VACANCY

RETAIL PODIUM

ESTIMATED 1.5% INCREASE IN TOTAL VACANCY

COMMUNITY MALL

ESTIMATED 2% INCREASE IN TOTAL VACANCY

SHOPPING MALL

INFLUX OF COMMUNITY MALL SUPPLY EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY

ABSORBED BY Q3/Q4 2019

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F



CURRENT RETAIL RENTAL RATES


RENTAL RATES FORECAST TO FALL DUE TO:

116.6% GROWTH IN RETAIL PODIUM SUPPLY

126.3% GROWTH IN COMMUNITY MALL SUPPLY

26.4% GROWTH IN SHOPPING MALL SUPPLY

$30.6

$27.7 $26.8

$32.0

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

Prime Shopping

Mall

Prime Retail

Podium

Community Mall Prime High Street

Rental Rate Range Average Rental Rate

COMMUNITY MALL RENTS FORECAST TO STABILIZE BEFORE YEAR END DUE TO ANTICIPATED HIGH NET ABSORPTION



RECENTLY COMPLETED RETAIL SUPPLY IN 2018

THE PARK COMMUNITY MALLOPERATION COMMENCED EARLY 2018 | 85% OCCUPIED BY 2018



RECENTLY COMPLETED RETAIL SUPPLY IN 2018

AEON MALL SEN SOK CITYOPERATION COMMENCED MID 2018 | FULLY OCCUPIED


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019:

MAP OF EXPECTED RETAIL SUPPLY IN 2019

1. The Olympia Mall2. The Park3. The Bridge4. Phnom Penh Megamall5. MiDTOWN Mall6. Noro Mall7. WB Arena8. Chip Mong Baktouk9. The Point

9



2019: 5 COMMUNITY MALLS ANTICIPATED

THE POINTLAUNCHED IN Q4 2018 | EXPECTED COMPLETION IN 2019

LOCATED ALONG MAO TSE TONG BLVD, NEAR RUSSIAN MARKET




MiDTOWN MALLEXPECTED FULL OPENING IN JULY 2019 | 4,881 SQM OF NLA




NORO MALLEXPECTED OPENING IN Q3 2019 | 7,400 SQM OF NLA




DOWNTOWN 93EXPECTED OPENING IN 2019 | 4,000 SQM OF NLA




WB ARENAEXPECTED OPENING IN 2019 | 6,000 SQM OF NLA



2019: 2 SHOPPING MALLS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE

PHNOM PENH MEGAMALLEXPECTED OPENING: Q1 2020 | 40,000 SQM OF NLA

Photo: ASEAN Skyline Facebook Page



2019: 2 SHOPPING MALLS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE

THE OLYMPIA MALLEXPECTED OPENING IN MARCH 2019 | 15,000 SQM OF NLA (PHASE 1)

64 YEAR AHEAD 2019CBRE CAMBODIA


2019 FORECAST

OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL


LAND


OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE SUPPLY 2008-2020F

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F

Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy Rate

2019F

OCCUPANCY RATE BY Q4 2019 78.50%

GRADE A OFFICE

53,265 SQMGRADE B OFFICE

150,775 SQMGRADE C OFFICE

190,565 SQM


OCCUPANCY RATES FALL DUE TO 56.6% GRADE B STOCK INFLUX

SQM



OFFICE RENTAL RATES 2012-2020F

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F

Grade-B (CBD) Grade-B (NCBD) Grade-C (CBD) Grade-C (NCBD)


INFLUX IN NON-CBD GRADE B OFFICE COMPLETIONS COMPRESS RENTAL RATES DUE TO PRE-LEASING THROUGHOUT 2019. LITTLE REMAINING CBD GRADE C SUPPLY IN DEMAND.

USD/SQM



MORE STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F

20

21

F

Grade B Grade A

ADDITIONAL 87,000 SQM OF SUPPLY IN 2019 TO MARK THE ‘REAL’ START OF A WAVE OF STRATA-TITLE OFFICE SUPPLY

Source: CBRE Research.Q1 2019

SQM


1

3

6

4

5

7

8

10

12

2


MAP OF EXPECTED OFFICE COMPLETIONS IN 2019

1. Elysee Tower2. Downtown 933. One Park4. TK Central5. Fortune Tower6. C5 Olympia City7. Diamond Twin Tower

8. Soma Group HQ9. Star City10. Chip Mong Baktouk Commercial Center11. The Gateway12. The Commune13. The Point

9

11Strata-titleCentrally Owned

13



MORE ANTICIPATED STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019

THE GATEWAYGRADE A STRATA-TITLE OFFICE

28,600 SQM




DIAMOND TWIN TOWERSGRADE B STRATA-TITLE OFFICE

16,000 SQM




STAR CITYGRADE B STRATA-TITLE OFFICE

20,200 SQM




FORTUNE TOWEROF THE OLYMPIA CITYGRADE B STRATA-TITLE OFFICE

22,000 SQM



OTHER NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS

5,570 SQM

THE COMMUNEGRADE B CENTRALLY-OWNED OFFICE



OTHER NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS

20-STOREY TOWER14,366 SQM

TK CENTRALGRADE B CENTRALLY-OWNED OFFICE



2019 FORECAST

OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

LAND

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL



RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY IN 2018

ACCUMULATIVE SUPPLY

2018

3,530 UNITSAFFORDABLE SEGMENT MID-RANGE SEGMENT HIGH-END SEGMENT

7,550 UNITS 3,093 UNITS

14,173UNITS

25% 22%

53%Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019



CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY 2019F

2019F2018

UNITS

PROJECT DELAYS RESULT IN INCREASED PIPELINE OF NEW SUPPLY IN 2019

100% INCREASEAFFORDABLE SEGMENT MID-RANGE SEGMENT HIGH-END SEGMENT

78% INCREASE 243% INCREASE

14,173

2019F

31,112120% INCREASE Y-O-Y UNITSUNITS


34% 23%

43%



CONDOMINIUM SALE PRICE 2016 – 2020F

$1,250

$1,750

$2,250

$2,750

$3,250

$3,750

Affordable Mid-Range High-End

RISK OF OVER-SATURATION WITHIN MID-RANGE AND HIGH-END CONDOMINIUM SEGMENTS CAUSE DOWNWARD PRICE ADJUSTMENT

2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 F


2 0 2 0 F



KEY CONDOMINIUM PROJECTS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE IN 2019

11

2

3

456

7

8

9

10

11

1. THE GATEWAY2. THE PENTHOUSE RESIDENCE3. ONE PARK4. EMBASSY CENTRAL5. AXIS RESIDENCE6. DIAMOND TWIN TOWER

7. URBAN LOFT8. STAR CITY9. SKY TREE10. GOLDEN ONE11. THE SKYLINE

and more…



EXPECTED COMPLETION OF KEY PROJECTS

THE SKYLINE792 UNITS | MID-RANGE | EXPECTED MOVE-IN READY: Q1 2019




THE PENTHOUSE RESIDENCE458 UNITS | HIGH-END | EXPECTED MOVE-IN READY: Q3 2019




ONE PARK1,636 UNITS | HIGH-END | 400 UNITS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE-IN READY BY 2019

85 YEAR AHEAD 2019CBRE CAMBODIA


CONDOMINIUM 2019 FORECAST



SERVICED APARTMENT SUPPLY 2019-2020 FORECAST

GRADE A

1,135 UNITS

CURRENT SUPPLY

GRADE B

908 UNITS

GRADE A

1,790 UNITS

+

6

5

5

UNITS

GRADE B

946 UNITS

+

38

UNITS

SUPPLY BY 2020F CURRENT SUPPLY SUPPLY BY 2020F




ALPHA RESIDENCES NORODOM 38 UNITS | GRADE B | EXPECTED TO BE MOVE-IN READY IN APRIL 2019

88 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIASource: somerset.com & khmertimeskh.com

30 COUNTRIES111 CITIES

WORLDWIDE

SOMERSET NORODOM -COMPLETED

& SOMERSET MERIDIAN SQUARE - PENDING


INTERNATIONAL OPERATORS ON THE RISE


950+ PROPERTIES ACROSS THE REGION 162 APARTMENTS IN AUSTRALIA

6 CITIES IN CHINA

OAKWOOD PREMIER PHNOM PENHOAKWOOD HOTEL & RESIDENCE PHNOM PENH


INTERNATIONAL OPERATORS ON THE RISE

OAKWOOD PREMIER and

OAKWOOD HOTEL & RESIDENCE PHNOM PENH

WILL BE LOCATED IN ONE PARK


OVERSUPPLY OF CONDOMINIUM IN THE NEAR FUTURE

CONVERSION OF UNSOLD UNITS

SERVICED APARTMENT SUPPLY INCREASE


UNSOLD CONDOS TO BE CONVERTED INTO SERVICED APARTMENTS

OVERSUPPLY OF CONDOMINIUMS IN THE NEAR FUTURE



SERVICED APARTMENT 2019 FORECAST

OVERVIEW

INFRASTRUCTURE

LAND

RETAIL

OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL



Source: Ministry of Tourism

NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY ORIGIN

China

Vietnam

Lao PDR

Thailand

Korea (ROK)

U.S.A

Japan

Malaysia

U.K

France

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

2017 2016

HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019

TOURIST STATISTICS


0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

Q3 2017 Q3 2018

Total Chinese Tourists

72% INCREASE

CHINESE TOURIST VISITS TO SIHANOUKVILLE

Source: South China Morning Post

DECLINING RATE OF WESTERN TOURISTS


SIHANOUKVILLE’S CHINESE TOURISTS



NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY YEAR


TOURIST STATISTICS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

Y-o-Y %

Change

Num

ber

of

Tourists

No. of International Tourist Arrivals % Change



IS THE INFLUX OF TOURISTS A POTENTIAL PROBLEM?


TOURIST STATISTICS

Photo: Heng Chivoan/Phnom Penh Post



CONNECTIVITY CONTINUES TO BOOST VISITOR NUMBERS

MORE FLIGHT CONNECTIONS,MORE TOURISTS,AND OF COURSE MORE HOTELS



BRANDED HOTELS CONTINUE TO RAISE THE BAR

HYATT REGENCYEXPECTED COMPLETION 2020 | 250 KEYS

Photo: Chip Mong



BRANDED HOTELS CONTINUE TO RAISE THE BAR

SHANGRI-LA HOTELEXPECTED COMPLETION 2020 | 148 KEYS

Photo: Oxley Worldbridge



CAMBODIA PREPARES TO HOST 2023 SEA GAMES

Photo credit: John Dough

THE MORODOK DECHO NATIONAL SPORT COMPLEX

Photo: Phnom Penh Post


SKY TRAIN PLANS TO REVOLUTIONIZE PUBLIC TRANSPORT



MARC’S PREDICTIONS FOR 2019


1. CBD LAND VALUES WILL DOUBLE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 MONTHS

2. LOCAL TECH START-UPS WILL TAKE MORE SPACE THAN FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES

3. ANGKOR WAT ARCHEALOGICAL PARK WILL CLOSE FOR 6 MONTHS

James Hodge

Associate Director

E: [email protected]

M: +855 89 333 722

© 2019 Advantage Property Services Co., Ltd, trading as CBRE Cambodia, part of the CBRE affiliate network. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyrightand proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt itsaccuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of theinformation of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmittedto, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable forany loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

CBRE Cambodia | +855 23 964 099 | [email protected] | www.cbre.com.kh

T H A N K Y O U !

James Hewson

Manager


M: +855 85 333 228

Kinkesa Kim

Senior Analyst


M: +855 95 777 582

RESEARCH & CONSULTING

For more info, please contact:

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