february 2009 economic summary in graphs
DESCRIPTION
graphs illustrating trends affecting commercial real estate in 2009TRANSCRIPT
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February Economic Summary in Graphs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/february-economic-summary-in-graphs.html
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The following contains graphs of recent valuable but depressing economic metrics.
Although the news is sobering, viewers are encouraged to grasp the magnitude of the current crisis
Please remove from reach any sharp objects, pens, pocket knives, razor blades or other potential weapons prior to viewing.
WARNING:
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historically there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending".
Architecture Billings Index - Jan. ‘96-08
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Commercial (blue) is expected to drop soon and hard based upon the decrease in architectural billings
Residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993
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Case-Shiller Index looks at housing prices in the ten largest markets (blue) v. 20 largest markets (red) since 1992.
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2008 : red bar
2007: orange bar
2006: blue bar
2005: green bar
2004: purple bar
Monthly existing Home Inventory
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Existing Home Sales in January since 1992
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Jan.1960-Jan. 2009: Employment measures and recessions:
unemployment rate (blue) the highest level since June 1992 (red = year over year change in employment)
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the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959
Housing starts since 1968
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decline in miles driven is worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis
Vehicle miles driven per year since 1972
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Monthly from January 2005 – January 2009
NAHB Builder Confidence Index in February
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supply is at an all time record 13.3 months in January
New Home Months of Supply
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Jan. 1962 – Jan. 2009
New Home Sales and recessions
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2009 is red bar, 2008 is purple bar, 2007 is orange bar, 2006 is blue bar, 2005 is green bar
New Home Sales Monthly January
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LA Port traffic loaded inbound (blue) v. loaded outbound (red) since 1962
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Price to own house v. price to rent equivalent house 1987-2008
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We are now back at year 2000 levels
Home ownership % since 1965
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Retail sales (year over year) since 1993
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Restaurant performance index since 2002
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U.S. Imports and Exports Through December
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Continued unemployment claims (red) v. Initial claims (blue) since 1972
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Some economists predict all graphs will continue to deteriorate until MEDIAN HOME PRICES return to A METRIC OF 3 TIMES MEDIAN WAGES
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Under the baseline scenario, nominal prices in the Composite 10 cities (Case Shiller looks at housing prices in the 10 largest U.S. housing markets.) would return to mid-2002 prices. Under the more severe scenario, prices would return to early 2001 prices.
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CONCLUSION The economy will not touch bottom and
begin to rebound until housing prices stabilize.
Government intervention is intended to establish a floor in housing prices.
Will the government succeed? It is too early to know.