february 2019 - u.realgeeks.media · 4.03 4.33 4.44 4.46 4.58 4.57 4.52 4.55 4.62 4.83 4.86 4.63...
TRANSCRIPT
FEBRUARY 2019
“The spring homebuying season is almost upon us, and if rates stay lower, inventory continues to grow, and the job market maintains its strength, we do expect to see a solid spring market.”
Mike FratantoniChief Economist at MBA
HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year
-9.5%
-8.1%
-7.2%
-6.3% -6.1%
0.5%0.0%
2.7%
1.1%
2.8%
4.2%
6.2%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2019
Last 12 Months
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
4.03
4.33
4.444.46
4.58 4.57
4.524.55
4.62
4.834.86
4.63
4.46
Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019
Freddie Mac 1/2019
2018 Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
“The housing market is obviously very sensitive to mortgage rates. Softer sales in December reflected consumer search processes and contract signing activity in previous months when mortgage rates were higher than today. Now, with mortgage rates lower, some revival in home sales is expected going into spring.”
Lawrence YunChief Economist at NAR
“There are strong reasons to believe that the housing market is more responsive to changes in interest rates than in the past – accelerating when rates drop and slowing when rates rise. Mortgage rates hit seven-year highs in November but then fell back in December. If they remain low during the early months of 2019, the housing market could see a modest reacceleration.”
Aaron TerrazasZillow Senior Economist
“Total home sales are expected to slowly regain momentum, increasing to 6.09 million in 2019 and to 6.14 million in 2020. For 2019, we expect home sales growth to be mostly driven by existing home sales, while new home sales are expected to remain almost flat.”
Freddie Mac
“We believe that the best home price growth is likely in the rearview mirror and the market is likely to skew toward transaction growth, which should ultimately provide a more stable foundation for affordability and the housing market.”
Ivy ZelmanThe Z Report
Source 2019 2020
Home Price Expectation Survey +3.8 +2.5
Zelman & Associates +3.5 +3.3
Mortgage Bankers Association +4.5 +3
Freddie Mac +4.1 +2.7
National Association of Realtors +2.2 +3.2
Fannie Mae +4.2 +2.8
Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward
Housing & Mortgage Market Review
The Probability of Home Prices being Lower in 2 Years
“The biggest challenge is really the availability of supply.”
Mark FlemingFirst American Chief Economist
Q: When do most listingscome on the market?
A: The 2nd Quarter of each Year
1,720,0001,700,000 1,690,000
1,660,000
1,630,000
1,530,000
1,360,000
June July August September October November December
NAR
Number of Single Family Listings
3.4 3.43.5
3.9
4.24.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
4.2
3.9
3.7
January February March April May June July August September October November December
NAR
Inventory Levels Months Supply
“Approximately one-third (32%) of Americans plan to purchase a home in the next five years. Millennials are most likely to have such a purchase in their five-year plan (49%), versus 35% of Generation X and 17% of baby boomers.”
NerdWallet
52%49%
46%43%
32%
20%
Rising Rental Costs Feeling like I’m throwing my money
away
Not building equity Not feeling like it’s truly home
Feeling like I’m paying my landlord’s
mortgage
Not being allowed tohave pets
What Do You Dislike About
Renting?
Convergys Analytics Insights Report
of renters believe you need a
20% down payment to buy a home
Convergys Analytics Insights Report
of renters believe you need a
780-800 credit scoreto be considered for a mortgage
Convergys Analytics Insights Report
0.09% 0.9%
9.1%
18.7%
24.2%
34.0%
13.0%
500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+
FICO® Score Distribution
53.0%All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
47% 47%
36%34%
26%
Mature/Responsible Like an Adult Independent Established Empowered
How Does Buying A Home Make You Feel?
Convergys Analytics Insights Report
“From our perspective, additional inventory is a good thing... However, homebuyers dislike uncertainty more than most things, and the transition period from inventory being too tight to inventory rising has indeed added uncertainty to the market.”
Ivy ZelmanThe Z Report
“My best guess is the housing market really comes into a soft landing… It depends on whether buyers & sellers start to panic as the market continues to slow, especially given how fresh the memories of the 2008 crash are.
Markets often follow animal spirits or psychology. Sometimes a soft landing is perceived as a crash.”
Ralph McLaughlinCoreLogic’s Deputy Chief Economist
“The content you push out serves as an example of your expertise - something
proving that you know your stuff.
Unless you’re consistently sharing your unique knowledge with potential clients in the form of blogs, real estate videos or
other content types, you’ll never establish yourself as an authority.”
Tonya Eberhart & Michael CarrCo-Founders of BrandFace
“Content Matters!Context Matters!Keeping Current
Matters!”
Steve HarneyFounder of KCM
“I truly believe that the silly, stupid, non contextual, conversational
content agents send clients, whittle down their value over time. Doing what Steve suggests however, will build and maintain value. Tenfold.
The right content matters! ”
Marc DavisonCo-Founder of 1000watt
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
3 Mike Fratantoni Quote https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/investing/housing-market-mortgage-rates-homebuilders/index.html
4, 14-15 Housing Supply https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
5 Mortgage Rates by Month http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
6 Lawrence Yun Quote https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-see-64-percent-drop-in-december
7 Aaron Terrazas Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2019-01-10-Interest-Rates-More-Severely-Impacting-Home-Values-but-Not-First-Time-Buyers-According-to-Experts
8 Freddie Mac Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/research/pdf/January_Forecast_Press_Release.pdf
9, 22 Ivy Zelman Quotehttps://www.zelmanassociates.com/member-portal/z-report-member-site/no-government-data-no-problem-our-updated-take-o (subscription required)
10 Projected Home Price Growthwww.freddiemac.com, www.fanniemae.com, www.nar.realtor/, www.pulsenomics.com, www.mba.org, www.zelmanassociates.com (subscription required)
11 Probability of Prices Going Down https://mi.archcapgroup.com/hammr
12 Mark Fleming Quote https://blog.firstam.com/economics/interview-on-cnbc-discussing-the-2019-housing-market-outlook
16 Nerd Wallet Quote https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/2018-home-buyer-report/
17-19, 21 Convergys Analytics Report https://info.bankofamerica.com/homebuyers-report/
20 FICO Scores http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports
23 Ralph McLaughlin Quote www.wsj.com (subscription required)
24-26 Quotes re: KCMhttps://www.inman.com/2019/01/25/the-7-deadly-sins-of-real-estate-brand-building/https://mobile.twitter.com/1000wattmarc/status/1088489500324519936
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
31, 52, 62Average Days on Market,Buyer & Seller Traffic Maps
https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
32-33, 42, 44-45, 53-58
Existing Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
34-35, 39 Freddie Mac Home Saleshttp://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdfhttp://nar.realtor/
36-38, 59-60 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
40-41 Pending Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/
46-48 Case Shiller Price Index http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
49 Forecasted Change in Price http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
50 Appraisal Challengehttps://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2019/01/08/quicken-loans-study-less-than-half-a-percent-difference-between-owner-and-appraiser-opinions-of-home-values/
63-65 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/
67-68, 70-71 Freddie Mac Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
69 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20190129_economic_growth.htmlhttp://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_012219.pdfhttps://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mortgage%20Finance%20Forecast%20Jan%202019.pdfhttps://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-01-2019-us-economic-outlook-12-28-2018.pdf
73-74 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
75-79 Ellie Mae Report https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt47a327ac368e22cd/blta8f5841071fa3534/5c475ee5a007329c0f28a139/EM_OIR_DECEMBER2018_180096.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Average Days on the Market
NAR
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Since January 2014
EXISTINGHome Sales
NAR 1/2019
-10.3%
-6.8%
-10.5%
-8.7%
-15.0%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 1/2019
Existing Home Sales in thousands
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
New Home Sales in thousands
*Data release has been impacted by the Government Shutdown –We will update as the data becomes available
Jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Census
New Home Salesannualized in thousands
*Data release has been impacted by the Government ShutdownWe will update as the data becomes available
6%8%
36%
23%
12%
9%7%
Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750KCensus
New Home Sales% of sales by price range
*Data release has been impacted by the Government Shutdown –We will update as the data becomes available
3.23.3
3.2
3.4
3.63.7
3.1
2.92.8
3.13.2 3.2
3.4
3.23.3
3.7
3.93.8
3.7
3.33.2
2.9 2.9
2.7
Nov Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Census
New Homes Selling Fast(median months from completion to sold)
*Data release has been impacted by the Government Shutdown –We will update as the data becomes available
Census & NAR
364 366
516503
612
656
561580
512 507
475 472
361 373
500521
597626
575 585
461
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018
Total Home Sales in thousands*Data release has been impacted by the Government Shutdown –
We will update as the data becomes available
-9.8%
-2.5%
-7.2%
-13.5%
-10.8%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
PENDINGHome SalesYear-Over-Year By Region
NAR 2/2019
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Percentage ofDistressed Property
Sales
35%
January 2012 - Today2%
5%
NAR 1/2019
Home Prices
2.9%
8.2%
0.0%
2.5%
0.2%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Y-O-Y by region
EXISTINGHome Prices
NAR 1/2019
-19.6%
-11.9%
-6.4%
-8.0%
-6.3%
-13.3%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -19.6% -11.9% -6.4% -8.0% -6.3% -13.3%
% Change in Salesfrom last year by Price Range
NAR 1/2019
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 2/2019
Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite
S&P Case Shiller 2/2019
Case Shiller
6.3%6.4%
6.3%
6.7% 6.7%
6.5%
6.2%
6.0%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%5.2%
Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 2/2019
CoreLogic
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
-0.60
-0.53
-0.36-0.33 -0.34
-0.25-0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.28
-0.36
-0.45
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
% -0.6 -0.53 -0.36 -0.33 -0.34 -0.25 -0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.28 -0.36 -0.45
Quicken Loans
Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates
Last 12 Months
HOUSINGINVENTORY
NAR
Seller Traffic
January2011
January2012
January2013
January2014
January2015
January2016
January2017
January2018
Months Inventory ofHOMES FOR SALE
2011 - Today
NAR 1/2019
Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
last 2 years
NAR 1/2019
3.4 3.4
3.6
4.0
4.1
4.3 4.3 4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
3.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2019
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALELast 12 Months
January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018
% 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.8 4.5 6.0 5.2 5.0 -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 0.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 4.2 6.2
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 1/2019
Jan FebMar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
% -24 -20 -16 -14 -13 -7. -5% -6. 1.8 0.9 5.0 1.6 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6% 5.5 5.8 4.5 6% 5.2 5% -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 0.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 4.2 6.2
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 1/2019
HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year
-9.5%
-8.1%
-7.2%
-6.3% -6.1%
0.5%0.0%
2.7%
1.1%
2.8%
4.2%
6.2%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2019
Last 12 Months
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5.25.1
5.0
5.4 5.45.3
6.0 6.0
5.3
5.6
4.9
5.55.6
5.45.3
5.75.5
6.06.2
6.46.5
7.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2017
2018
Census
New Home Inventorymonths supply
4.9
5.5 5.65.4 5.3
5.75.5
6.06.2
6.4 6.5
7.4
Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Census
New Home Inventory months supply
Last 12 Months
BUYERDEMAND
Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 1/2019
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
Last 12 Months
NAR 1/2019
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017
2018
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 1/2019
NAR
Buyer Traffic
INTERESTRATES
1/4 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3
Freddie Mac 1/2019
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
3.95%
4.45%
1/7/
16
2/4
3/3
4/7
5/5
6/2
7/7
8/4
9/1
10/6
11/3
12/1
1/5/
17 2/2
3/2
3/3
0
4/2
7
5/2
5
6/2
2
7/2
0
8/1
7
9/1
4
10
/12
11/9
12/7
1/4/
18
2/1
3/1
4/5
5/4
6/7
7/5
8/2
9/6
10/4
11/1
12/6
1/3
30-Year FixedRate Mortgages
from Freddie Mac
4.45
3.97
Freddie Mac 1/2019
Mortgage Rate Projections
1/2019
QuarterFreddie
MacFannie Mae
MBA NARAverage
of All Four
2019 2Q 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.68
2019 3Q 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.73
2019 4Q 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.75
2020 1Q 4.8 4.5 4.9 - 4.73
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
Rate 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8
Freddie Mac
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual- Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4.6
4.8 4.8 4.8
Freddie Mac
2019 Q1
Where Are They Going In 2019?
January – Today Actual Interest Rates
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac30-Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage Credit Availability
YES NO MAYBE
Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit Availability
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June 2004 June 2005June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 Dec 2018
Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA
47
45
43
42
43
44 44
45 45
46
48
47
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Days To Close A Loan
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Last 12 Months
721 721
722
723
724
726
725
724
727 727 727
726
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO® Score RequirementsLast 12 months
0.09% 0.9%
9.1%
18.7%
24.2%
34.0%
13.0%
500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+
FICO® Score Distribution
53.0%All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average FICO® Scorefor Closed Purchase Loans
by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
726751
674
707
All Loans Conventional FHA VA
39 37
44 43
All Loans* Conventional FHA VA
Average Back End DTIfor Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae