february 22 - money morning-where’s the “big money” headed now?

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  • 8/9/2019 February 22 - Money Morning-Wheres the Big Money Headed Now?

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    February 22, 2010

    Wheres the Big Money Headed Now?By Jon D. Markman, Contributing Writer, Money Morning

    The remarkable week that just concluded actually began on February 12, which was two Fridaysago. Stocks plunged in the opening minutes of trading that morning as investors' faith in theglobal economic recovery was shaken. In China, policymakers again tightened monetary policyin a fight against rapid credit growth and fast rising asset prices. In Europe, which is plagued byconcerns over the bailout of deeply indebted Greece, a report showed economic growth slowingdramatically.

    For a few minutes, it looked like all of the prior week's advance would be lost and stocks werepreparing to plunge into oblivion. But then, encouraged by a positive retail sales report, buyersswamped the tape -- focusing their attention on smaller, riskier companies, particularly in thetechnology sector. And off we went for the next six sessions.

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    Latest CommentThanks, a great report. Where my concern lies is banking. I have worked in the

    It was an impressive show of strength under pressure by the bulls that brought all indexes backabove support, crushing bears in the process.

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    Some important variations among groups of stocks emerged, so if we choose the right places toput our money we can profit even if the overall trend is still sideways and down.

    Before getting to those specific ideas, let me tell you what the big money is thinking, accordingto my contacts on the prop desks of major U.S. brokerages.

    First, despite the uneven market at the start of this year, it is important to keep one thing clearlyin mind: Group 20 central banks and governments still uniformly believe that their monetary andfiscal policy should be oriented toward boosting growth, not curbing inflation.

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    There is even a view that inflation is needed, and that this is not a good time to start cutting backon stimulus or to start raising interest rates. This is bullish for stocks, and it provides a bid undermarkets even when they're hit by rogue waves like the recent European sovereign debt crisis.

    Second, this year is shaping up much like 2004. That year saw a 100-point range in theStandard & Poor's 500 Index between 1,150 and 1,050 for the first nine months of the year.The trading phenomenon known as "trend extension" was lacking then, much to the dismay ofparticipants who were looking for strong trends and breakouts like the prior three years. We'reseeing that again this year, no doubt. So the analog with 2004 is tracking quite closely -- almostuncannily so, given that the 1,050-1,150 range is virtually identical.

    Third, so far this year only currency markets in the United States, United Kingdom and Europehave exhibited trend extension outside of ranges seen in the last quarter of 2009. All othermarkets -- equities, commodities, bond and emerging markets -- have either been characterizedby erratic range-trading or mean-reversion back to Q4 2009 ranges.

    If you take a step back and think about it a moment, the snap version of what's happening nowgoes like this: 2008 was the year of the short-sellers. 2009 was the year of the longs. And 2010will be the year of neither, which will whipsaw and frustrate both. A firm uptrend in the U.S.dollar as a safe haven from the euro mess so far is the only thing that 2010 so far has been good

    for.

    Fourth, although companies have generated a lot of cash by selling bonds over the past year, andbanks are enjoying the riches of a steep yield curve, neither are doing much with their money.They aren't hiring more people and they aren't expanding. Companies appear to be hoarding cashat a remarkable rate, almost to the extent that they can become their own bankers. This is anextraordinary development, and is probably the reason that stimulus funds have not trickleddown to employment to the extent that most of us expected.

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INXhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX
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    So now what?

    Well, since stocks hit their recent closing low two weeks ago, there has been a noticeableperformance differential between the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index and the mega caps inthe Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index. It's only been half a month, but that ishow leadership out of a low gets started -- so it bears watching carefully.

    Such behavior may reflect a rise in investors risk appetites and suggests a rebound rally could beabout to get started. Small caps and large caps have traded leadership roles repeatedly in the pastyear, but all of the major, long-lasting advances -- out of lows in March and July 2009 -- featuredsmall fry in the vanguard. This challenges our view that high-quality stocks will be the mostwanted in the next phase.

    We're seeing similar leadership from technology stocks; specifically, by semiconductor-complexfirms like new superstarMarvell Technology Group Ltd.(Nasdaq: MRVL), above,and Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM). Overall, the SPDR Semiconductor (NYSE: XSD)exchange-traded fund is up 10% in February -- more than triple the advance of the broad market.

    Looking back, outperformance by chip stocks has ignited most important market moves over the

    last 18 months. The semis started outperforming in December 2008 -- presaging broad marketstrength four months ahead of the March low. They turned higher last May ahead of the big rallyin July. They started moving in late November, when investors were distracted by the sovereigndebt issues in Dubai, ahead of the mid-December stock rally. They fell hard in January, as agroup, but since the beginning of this month, semiconductors have been on the move again.

    The problem -- you knew there had to be a catch, right? -- is that semiconductors may be leadingsome stocks out of the ditch they've recently slipped into, but that doesn't mean all of them aregetting back on the road as cleanly as Marvell. Industry goliath Intel Corp.(Nasdaq: INTC)

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJIhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=mrvlhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=BRCMhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=xsdhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=INTChttp://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJIhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=mrvlhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=BRCMhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=xsdhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=INTC
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    still sees its shares fetching the same price they fetched in September. Many chips giantslike Linear Technology Corp.(Nasdaq: LLTC) and Texas Instruments Inc.(Nasdaq: TXN)are only stirring after slipping back to August prices. This is what we mean by a choppy,sideways market -- only for these stocks the phase started early.

    To be sure these can all find footing eventually, but here's the problem: Bull cycles need high-energy, high-impact leaders to rally the troops. And although the chips are trying their hearts out,they are not yet accomplishing that goal. Neither are other former tech leaders like AppleInc.(Nasdaq: AAPL) orGoogle Inc.(Nasdaq: GOOG), or traditional leaders among thefinancial services companies like Goldman SachsGroup Inc.(NYSE: GS) orJPMorganChase & Co.(NYSE: JPM), which remain in downtrends.

    Goldman, in fact, has been a disaster despite all the largesse it's received from the government,as you can see in the chart above. Since peaking in October, it's been in a distinct downtrend withonly two weeks' respite in four months. Investors believe that new regulations proposed by thegovernment will fall harshly on Goldman, sapping its growth potential and driving away talent.

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=LLTChttp://www.google.com/finance?q=TXNhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=AAPLhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=googhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=gshttp://www.google.com/finance?q=jpmhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=LLTChttp://www.google.com/finance?q=TXNhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=AAPLhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=googhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=gshttp://www.google.com/finance?q=jpm
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    About the only real leaders I can find right now are food makers like H.J.Heinz Co.(NYSE:HNZ), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE CAG) and Tyson Foods Inc.(NYSE: TSN), and regionalbanks like Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq: FITB) and New York Community BancorpInc. (NYSE: NYB). These are not bad companies, they are cheap enough to merit attention, andthey may end up being among the few to survive the flat spot we expect to see over the next ninemonths, but they won't command enough attention to truly lead a parade.

    Leadership by food companies, in fact, is usually considered to be a negative, as it shows thatinstitutional investors are plowing into "defensive" value stocks rather than fast growers.

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=hnzhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=CAGhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=tsnhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=FITBhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=NYBhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=hnzhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=CAGhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=tsnhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=FITBhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=NYB
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    One other group showing some potential is companies that provide parts for the aircraft cyclethat appears to be underway; not just TheBoeing Co.(NYSE:BA), but also GoodrichCorp.(NYSE: GR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV) and Precision CastpartsCorp. (NYSE: PCP)- and to a lesser extent avionics makerRockwell CollinsInc. (NYSE: COL).

    If shares of chip makers and these industrial manufacturers start to work in synch in the comingweeks due to improved optimism over second-quarter earnings, then these will be the place toput our money in anticipation of a retracement back toward the January highs.

    To see how this has worked at turning points in the last nine months, see the chart above, whichcompares the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index ($CYC) to theS&P 500. The Cyclical Index isdesigned to measure the performance of economic sensitive industries in the United States,including autos, metals, machinery, chemicals, semiconductors and transportation.

    You can see in the top clip of the chart how the August, September, October, November andDecember rallies were all much more acute for the cyclicals than for the broad market -- withmuch steeper angles of attack from the lows. In the bottom clip, you can see that CYC is tryingits hardest to recover from the most oversold condition seen since the March low.

    This suggests that at the very least, shares of cyclical companies like chips and industrials shouldenjoy another period of outperformance if bulls can muster their troops in the coming week ortwo.

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=bachttp://www.google.com/finance?q=bachttp://www.google.com/finance?q=grhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=beavhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=pcphttp://www.google.com/finance?q=colhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=bachttp://www.google.com/finance?q=grhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=beavhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=pcphttp://www.google.com/finance?q=col
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    Indeed, what we are really seeing is that big banks and energy companies, which exert hugeinfluence on the major indexes due to their gigantic market capitalizations, are struggling at thesame time that smaller companies in the indexes like Heinz and Goodrich are sort of paddlingalong. If you can isolate the successful companies in stronger sectors from the weaker mega-capsthat rule the indexes you can probably outperform this year. That's easier to say than to do.

    There are more reasons to be constructive on cyclical stocks. Jonathan Golub, an equity strategistat UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), reminded clients in a research note this week that while investorshave been preoccupied with events in Europe and China, corporate America reported outstandingresults in the fourth quarter. Finally, he said, companies are starting to see some top-line revenuegrowth to complement the earnings growth seen over the past few quarters due to deep cost-cutting initiatives.

    The real story is that we are seeing a separation of performance between cyclical and non-cyclical corporations -- which is exactly what we would expect coming out of a recession.Removing the financials (since they are in unique circumstances at the moment), cyclical stocks

    have reported 25% year-over-year earnings growth according to Golub. Compare this to therelatively flat earnings growth by more defensive companies, such as health care, utilities andsoap makers.

    Technology and semiconductor stocks have reported especially strong earnings. In Golub'swords, tech stocks have been "knocking the cover off the ball, posting top-line and bottom-linegrowth of 11% and 62%." See below for new exposure to the sector to try to take advantage ofcombination of healthy profitability and the unhealthy investor skepticism.

    The Week in Review

    Monday: Markets closed for Presidents' Day holiday.

    Tuesday: The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Survey surged to 24.9for February versus the consensus estimate of 18 and the prior period reading of 15.9. This is avery positive sign that manufacturing activity is strengthening in New York State. New ordersand shipments continue to increase as inventories start to get restocked.

    Wednesday: Industrial production increased 0.9% in January following a 0.7% jump inDecember thanks to manufacturing activity. Auto production was a big contributor to the gain,with motor vehicles and parts activity jumping 4.9% after a 0.3% decline in December.

    Thursday: Initial weekly jobless claims continue to dance around the mid-400k region. TheProducer Price Index made a surprise jump to the upside in January on a 5.1% surge in energyprices with gasoline up 11.5%.

    Friday: The Consumer Price Index was also affected by higher energy costs, but a drop inshelter costs as rents fall kept a lid on overall inflation. A drop in hotel prices also contributed.Investors reacted favorably to the report since it means the Fed can continue to keep interest rateslow on the lack of an inflation threat.

    The Week Ahead

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=ubshttp://www.google.com/finance?q=ubs
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    Monday: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will speak before the House ofRepresentatives on whether additional stimulus is needed to fuel job growth.

    Tuesday: The latest home price numbers from the Case-Shiller Index. Also, we will get a readon consumer confidence.

    Wednesday: New home sales will be reported.

    Thursday: Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress again, this time visiting the Senate.

    Friday: A big day.The government releases its second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth.Also, look for existing home sales, consumer sentiment, and the Chicago Business Barometer tobe reported.

    [Editor's Note: As this analysis demonstrates,Money MorningContributing Writer JonMarkman has a unique view of both the world economy and the global financial markets.With uncertainty the watchword and volatility the norm in today's markets, low-risk/high-

    profit investments will be tougher than ever to find.

    It will take a seasoned guide to uncover those opportunities.

    Markman is that guide.

    In the face of what's been the toughest market for investors since the Great Depression, it'stime to sweep away the uncertainty and eradicate the worry. That's why investorssubscribe to Markman'sStrategic Advantagenewsletter every week: He can seeopportunity when other investors are blinded by worry.

    Subscribe toStrategic Advantage and hire Markman to be your guide. For moreinformation, please click here.]

    News & Related Story Links:

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    1 Response1. Jim Hines |February 22, 2010

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    Thanks, a great report. Where my concern lies is banking. I have worked in theconstruction sector my entire career and have seen ups and downs, but this seemsdifferent. There is very little (to none) investment money flowing and projects arepredominately government. It seems as though the trend is to bury heads in the sand andhope that the economy will come back. The prior recession, as I remember was slow, butwith low interest, at least money was available. It would be interesting if there was a wayto compare this.

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