feed and breed choice: preliminary results from uptake analysis presentation by nguyen ngoc toan,...
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![Page 1: Feed and Breed Choice: Preliminary Results from uptake analysis Presentation by Nguyen Ngoc Toan, PhD Research Officer, ILRI - Hanoi Fortuna Hotel April](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649f2c5503460f94c4706c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Feed and Breed Choice: Preliminary Results from uptake analysis
Presentation by Nguyen Ngoc Toan, PhD
Research Officer, ILRI - Hanoi
Fortuna Hotel
April 7th, 2009
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Introduction
• Background: This is one of the studies under Objective 2 of the project, characterizing pig producers selling in different priced markets.
• Purpose: Exploring the drivers of producers’ choice with respect to breed and feed.
• Approach: Empirical, incorporating simple statistics and econometric analysis (discrete choice frameworks)
• Data: Survey of 1051 households in six provinces of Phu Tho, Ha Tay, Nghe An, Daklak, Dong Nai and Tien Giang, of which 700 are producers.
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Hypotheses on the choice of breed and feed
• Breed choice is influenced by:– Demographic, geographic and human capital characteristics– Agricultural land and assets owned and income– Access to suppliers/markets and services– Production system and scale of production
• Feed choice is influenced by:– Demographic, geographic and human capital characteristics– Agricultural land and assets owned and income– Access to suppliers/markets and services– Production system and scale of production– The choice of breed (local, exotic or cross-improved)
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Methodology: Simulating households’ decision-making process: A two-stage
procedure
• Stage 1: Raising pigs or not? Characterizing producers vs. non-producers– Assumed to depends on households’ demographic,
geographic and human capital characteristics and possession of resources.
– Modeled as a dichotomous choice problem in a probit framework.
• Stage 2: Which breed and feed system to adopt?– The choice of local breed is modeled as a binary
choice problem in a logit framework.– The choice of feed is modeled as a multiple choice
problem in a multinomial logit framework.
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Producers vs. Non-producers: Simple statistics (1)
Variables
Producers (700)
Non Producers
(351)
Pr
Mean Std Mean Std t-test Chi2test
Household size* 4.7 1.64 4.1 1.77 0.0000 0.000
Age of household head (log) 3.9 0.23 3.9 0.40 0.2775 0.077
Level of education (combined household head and spouse)* 14.27 6.08 13.19 6,82 0.0097 0.022
Level of professional training (combined household head and spouse)* 2.42 1.49 2.75 2.33 0.0067 0.014
Dependency ratio* 0.36 0.24 0.43 0.31 0.0000 0.000
Size of agricultural land owned (hecta)* 0.38 0.53 0.27 0.41 0.0007 0.573
Share of household income from crop production* 37 26.72 30 29.75 0.0002 0.732
Share of household income fron non-agricultural production 11 22.53 11 25.62 0.9867 0.856
Non-livestock income per capita (mil VND) 6.22 5.77 6.69 7.95 0.2615 0.580
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Producers vs. Non-producers: Simple statistics (2)
Variabels
Producers (700) Non-producers (351)
pr
Frequency % Frequency % t-test Chi2test
Gender of household head (male=1)
584 83.43 281 80.06 0.1771 0.177
If there are HH members receiving wages/salary*
680 97.14 324 92.31 0.0003 0.000
Ethnicity of household head (Kinh & Hoa =0, others=1)
56 8 31 8.83 0.6447 0.644
Living in urban area (=1) 249 35.57 124 35.53 0.9380 0.938
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Raising pigs or not? The factors that drive decision
Variable Influence
Household size +
Level of education (combined household
head and spouse)
+
Level of professional training (combined
household head and spouse)
-
Dependency Ratio -
If there are HH members receiving
wages/salary
-
Size of agricultural land owned +
Share of household income from crop +
Non-livestock income per capita -
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Which breed to adopt? Factors that drive the choice of local
breedVariable Influence
Gender of household head (male=1) -
Level of professional training (combined household head and spouse) -
Total value of assets owned -
Living in urban areas -
Living in southern provinces (Tien Giang and Dong Nai=1) -
Engage in farrow to wean production system +
Scale of pig production (categorical: 1=small, 2=medium, 3=large) -
Has access to extension service +
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Which feed system to adopt? Mixed feed as base category
Traditional feed Industrial feed
Variables Influence Variables Influence
Household size + Living in urban areas +
Having household members receiving wages/salary
- Living in the southern
provinces (Tien Giang or Dong Nai=1)
+
Dependency Ratio - Having regular feed suppliers +
Share of income from crop production
+ Engaged in farrow to wean
production -
Living in the southern provinces (Tien Giang or
Dong Nai=1) -
Scale of production (categorical: 1=small; 2=medium; 3=large)
+
Having regular feed suppliers
- Has feed supply contract (formal and/or informal)
-
Distance from (traditional) feed source
-
Engaged in farrow to wean production
+
Scale of production (categorical: 1=small; 2=medium; 3=large)
-
Has access to extension service
-
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Implications (1)
• Higher-yielding technologies (e.g. improved breed & feed):– Associated with larger scale of production.– Probably beyond the reach of poorer, smaller-scale producers.
• There are still potential market opportunities for smallholder producers: e.g. local breed piglet production
• The shift to higher-value market chains ultimately require:– Changes in the choice of breed toward improved, higher-yielding
genotypes.– Changes in the choice of feed used to optimize the potential of
higher-yielding breeds.– Reduce transition cost of accessing these critical inputs and
extension and other services
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Implications (2): Intervention Strategy
• General guidelines:– Must be context specific.– Enhancing access to appropriate inputs and services as
required by specific production conditions.
• Immediate focus:– Must be targeted two types of pig producers.– Easing the transition of smallholder producers to the
state where they are able to effectively engage in modern supply chains of pork.
– Ensuring producers at the lower end of small-scale spectrum of opportunities to embark on modernization pathway or seek for other livelihood options.
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International Livestock Research InstituteBetter lives through livestock
Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries
Nguyen Ngoc Toan, PhDResearch Officer/Quantitative Analyst
ILRI - Hanoi www.ilri.org
(e-mail: [email protected] )