fei houston energy sig · strategic alternative assessments ... companies since 2012 in the thomson...

50
FEI Houston Energy SIG Energy M&A Update February 13, 2018 | Confidential

Upload: others

Post on 16-Jul-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

FEI Houston Energy SIG

Energy M&A Update

February 13, 2018 | Confidential

Page 2: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Introduction – Stout Houston (Energy)

2

Robert MooreManaging Director

Shishir Khetan, CFAManaging Director

Todd ParsapourManaging Director

Page 3: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Agenda

3

Stout Overview

Energy Update

Current Landscape

M&A and Valuation Trends

Overview

Oilfield Services And Equipment

Upstream

Midstream

Page 4: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Stout Overview

4

Page 5: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

5PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Stout OverviewLeading independent advisory firm specializing in Investment Banking, Valuation Advisory, DisputeConsulting, and Management Consulting. Clients range from Fortune 100 corporations to privatelyheld companies in numerous industries around the world.

Investment Banking Valuation Advisory

Dispute Consulting Management Consulting

• M&A Advisory• Private Financing of Debt & Equity• Special Situations & Distressed M&A• Strategic Alternative Assessments

• Corporate Tax Planning and Compliance

• ESOP & ERISA Advisory• Financial Reporting• Fairness & Solvency Opinions• Trust & Estate

• Compliance Services• Expert Testimony & Consulting• Investigations• Special Assignments

• Legal Management Consulting• Artificial Intelligence• Restructuring• Risk Management

Page 6: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

6PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIALPRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Recognition

Stout OverviewStout At a Glance:

CONSISTENTLY RANKED AS ONE OF THE TOP U.S. FAIRNESSOPINION PROVIDERS*Based on the total number of deals reported by more than 20 companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2), 2016 (3), 2015 (2), 2014 (1), 2013 (3), 2012 (1).

2017 BEST AND BRIGHTEST COMPANIES TO WORK FOR IN THE NATION

INTELLECTUAL ASSET MANAGEMENT’S (IAM) PATENT 1000: THE WORLD’S LEADING PATENT PROFESSIONALS 2017 EDITIONRecognized John Bone, Edward Gold, David Haas, and Michele Riley as world-leading economic expert witnesses.

17 offices located acrossthe U.S. and Europe

AtlantaBaltimoreChicagoClevelandDallasDenverDetroitGeneva, SwitzerlandGrand Rapids

HoustonIrvineLausanne, SwitzerlandLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphiaTysons CornerWashington, DC

3,500+ engagements executed annually

450+ employees and growing at a rapid pace

75+ countries where we serve clients

26+ years of delivering client success

Page 7: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

7PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Oilfield Equipment & Services Upstream Midstream

Stout OverviewSelect engagements spanning the energy industry

Page 8: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Energy Update

8

Current Snapshot

Page 9: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotDespite recent volatility, crude oil prices have recovered meaningfully from trough

9

Crude Oil (WTI) Prices

Source: Bloomberg, as of February 9, 2018

$10.00

$30.00

$50.00

$70.00

$90.00

$110.00

$130.00

$150.00

Dol

lars

per

Bbl

Crude Oil Front Month Current NYMEX WTI Strip

-76%

126%

Page 10: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Research Analyst Crude Oil (WTI) Price Estimates

Source: Bloomberg, as of February 9, 2018Note: Excludes estimates prior to November 30, 2017

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19

Dol

lars

per

Bbl

Max Median Min

Energy SnapshotCautious optimism for future prices (albeit within a wide range)

10

Page 11: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotPermian leading production growth; other basins recovering

11

U.S. Onshore Crude Oil ProductionBy Key Region

Source: EIA, Release Date January 16, 2018

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MBb

l per

Day

Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Permian

Average Annual Production Growth

2010-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Bakken 36.6% 8.5% -12.9% 3.4%Eagle Ford 104.1% 9.0% -21.3% -4.0%Niobrara 27.6% 26.4% -10.2% 10.1%Permian 15.3% 15.0% 7.7% 21.1%

Source: EIA

Page 12: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotNatural gas market remains challenging

12

U.S. Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Prices

Source: Bloomberg, as of February 9, 2018

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

Dol

lars

per

MM

Btu

Natural Gas Front Month Current NYMEX Henry Hub Strip

Page 13: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotContinued production growth despite substantial decline in gas-directed drilling

13

U.S. Natural Gas Production And Rig Count

Source: EIA (Natural Gas Production) and Baker Hughes (Rig Count)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Bcf p

er d

ay

Num

ber

of R

igs

Rig Count Natural Gas Production

Page 14: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Average Annual Production Growth

2010-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Appalachia 55.5% 22.4% 13.1% 10.1%Bakken 43.2% 26.1% 3.5% 13.7%Eagle Ford 36.4% 13.4% -10.5% -5.8%Haynesville -2.2% -5.5% -4.9% 12.6%Niobrara -2.0% 2.1% -1.4% 2.5%Permian 6.5% 15.0% 9.3% 19.2%

Source: EIA

Energy SnapshotGas production growth led by Northeast, associated gas from Permian and renewed interest in Haynesville

14

U.S. Natural Gas ProductionBy Key Region

Source: EIA, Release Date January 16, 2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bcf p

er D

ay

Appalachia Bakken Eagle Ford

Haynesville Niobrara Permian

Page 15: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Increase in U.S. Land Rig Count Since May 2016

Source: Baker Hughes

300

49 40 35 28 2913 13

72

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Incr

ease

in R

Ig C

ount

Energy SnapshotOver half of incremental rigs added since May 2016 have been in the Permian

15

Historical U.S. Land Rig Count

Source: Baker Hughes

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber

of R

igs -57%

-80%

152%

Page 16: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotActivity outlook positive

16

NAM New Wells Drilled By Year

Source: Spears & Associates

56,327 57,533

33,964

19,678

30,96535,249

2%

-41%-42%

57%

14%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Num

ber

of W

ells

Dri

lled

Wells

Annual Change

Page 17: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotActivity outlook positive (cont.)

17

NAM Footage Drilled By Year

Source: Spears & Associates

446.7486.8

328.9

199.3

346.4

395.7

9%

-32%-39%

74%

14%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Foot

age

Dri

lled

(Mil)

Footage

Annual Change

Page 18: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotWell complexity and efficiency increased during downturn

18

Average Footage Drilled Per New Horizontal Well By Region

Source: Spears & Associates

7,500

9,500

11,500

13,500

15,500

17,500

19,500

21,500

Ave

rage

Foo

tage

Dri

lled

per W

ell

Bakken Eagle FordMarcellus Permian5.0%

2.7%

8.3%

2.7%

2011 - 2017ECAGR

Page 19: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy SnapshotWell complexity and efficiency increased during downturn (cont.)

19

Lateral Lengths and Frac Stages

Source: Spears & Associates

6,700 7,000 7,6008,200

9,000

2629

35

41

49

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

Frac

Sta

ges

(Per

Hor

izon

tal W

ell)

Late

ral L

engt

hs (f

t. p

er W

ell)

U.S. Land Lateral Lengths Frac Stages

Page 20: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Energy Update

20

M&A and Valuation Trends

Page 21: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy M&A

21

NAM Energy Transaction Count By Sector

Source: IHS

169191

168

208178 175

169

239

134157 154

164 168

203

239222

125145 141

157

122

169 178 171 185 179 175 163

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Upstream Midstream Downstream Oilfield Services & Equipment

Overall energy M&A activity has recovered from 2015/2016, led by upstream activity

Page 22: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy M&A

22

NAM Energy Transaction Value By Sector

Source: IHS

$23.7 $25.9

$43.2

$90.4

$41.6 $32.8

$59.6 $67.2

$18.3 $17.9

$22.6

$44.5

$24.2

$56.6

$114.6

$99.4

$25.9

$55.0 $68.1

$41.3 $36.3

$30.7

$92.5 $94.6 $95.7

$43.2 $24.4

$20.7

$-

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

$140.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tran

sact

ion

Val

ue (i

n Bi

llion

s U

SD)

Upstream Midstream Downstream Oilfield Services & Equipment

By value, midstream businesses have represented a substantial portion of activity

Page 23: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy Valuations

23

Equity valuation levels rising but still lag broader market

Equity Index Performance

Source: S&P Capital IQ

7.0%

82.6%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

S&P Energy S&P 500

Page 24: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Energy Valuations

24

Since 2012, S&P Energy has underperformed S&P 500 every year except 2016

Equity Index Performance - S&P Energy vs S&P 500

Source: S&P Capital IQ

-35.3%

9.1%

17.2%

3.7% 2.0%

22.2%

-6.6%

-21.5%

27.6%

-2.1%

-38.5%

23.5%

11.0%

-1.1%

11.7%

26.4%

12.4%

-0.7%

11.2%18.4%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

S&P Energy S&P 500

Page 25: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Oilfield Services and Equipment

25

M&A and Valuation Trends

Page 26: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Oilfield Services And Equipment

26

Number of NAM OFS transactions has stabilized recently

NAM Oilfield Services And Equipment Transactions

Source: IHS, S&P Capital IQ, and proprietary information

$3

$5,070

$2,972

$3,976

$2,373

$1,459

$3,084

$1,609

$830$1,048

$1,617

$2,602

$1,960

$3,923

$1,622 $1,569

$72

$703

$1,283

$636$816

$229$537

$3,607

$1,913

$562

$4,279

$1,578

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Tran

sact

ion

Val

ue (i

n M

illio

ns U

SD)

Num

ber

of T

rans

acti

ons

Patterson-UTI/Seventy Seven $2.7 billion

Page 27: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Oilfield Services And Equipment

27

Production & Well Services and Manufacturing businesses have been bulk of M&A market

2017 NAM Energy Service And Equipment Transaction Count By Sector

Source: IHS and S&P Capital IQ

Diversified, 13

Drillers & Drilling Rigs, 7

Geophysical & Reservoir

Services, 14

Manufacturing, 27

Offshore Services & Vessels, 6

Production & Well Services,

49

Tool Rental & Drilling Services, 12

2017 NAM Energy Service And Equipment Transaction Value By Sector (Millions USD)

Source: IHS, S&P Capital IQ, and proprietary information

Diversified, $529

Drillers & Drilling Rigs, $50 Geophysical & Reservoir Services, $792

Manufacturing, $1,085

Offshore Services &

Vessels, $1,077

Production & Well Services, $3,042

Tool Rental & Drilling Services, $1,758

Page 28: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Oilfield Services And Equipment

28

Strategics have been most active buyers

2017 NAM Energy Service And Equipment Transaction Count By Buyer Profile

Source: IHS and S&P Capital IQ

Oilfield Services & Equipment Companies, 71

Private Equity & Private Equity-Backed Groups, 31

Other Strategic Energy Companies, 5

Undisclosed and Other Non-

Energy Companies, 21

Page 29: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Median Enterprise Value / EBITDA By Select Energy Services Sector

Source: S&P Capital IQ and Stout

Note: Multiples based on historical EV and forward EBITDA estimates as of December 31, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 (2017E, 2018E, 2019E).

5.6x

9.8x

32.8x

15.7x

12.3x

9.3x 8.4x9.8x

18.4x

8.1x5.8x

4.6x

7.6x6.1x

8.3x 8.1x 8.1x 7.7x 7.7x 7.7x

11.2x13.6x

10.2x8.8x

5.4x

9.6x

23.2x

11.1x

7.9x6.5x

0.0x

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

35.0x20

14

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

Large, Diversified Energy ServiceCompanies

Geophysical and GeoscienceServices

Offshore Construction Services Offshore Transportation Production & Well Services

4.3x5.6x

17.5x

10.9x

6.5x5.2x 5.6x

4.1x5.3x

7.3x

12.9x 13.5x

6.6x8.5x

28.1x

13.1x11.3x

8.3x6.1x 5.3x

8.6x10.2x

8.7x7.3x 7.6x

16.8x

12.2x

19.1x

6.6x5.5x

0.0x

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

Land Drilling Offshore Drilling Energy Equipment Manufacturers Engineering & Construction Energy Infrastructure

Oilfield Services And Equipment

29

Financial results improving and valuation levels rising but…

Page 30: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Oilfield Services And Equipment

30

…equity performance still lags broader marketEquity Index Performance - OSX

Source: S&P Capital IQ

220.16

Recent Low of 117.79 on August 17, 2017

136.66

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

Equity Index Performance - OSX vs. S&P 500

Source: S&P Capital IQ

83.7%

-37.9%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

S&P 500 Index PHLX Oil Service Sector Index

Page 31: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Oilfield Services And EquipmentM&A activity levels had been depressed due to:

31

• Lower commodity prices;

• Wide bid-ask spreads;

• Declining revenue and margins;

• Lack of debt financing for buyers; and

• Uncertain outlook.

Anticipate future activity to increase due to:

• Improving outlook and higher sustained commodity prices;

• Increasing number of financial sponsors seeking solutions for older vintage investments (2011 and prior);

• Significant availability of assets for sale;

• Need for liquidity (for owners and working capital/capex);

• Increased deal structure creativity to bridge slowly tightening bid-ask spread gap including:

• Rollover equity; and

• Earn-outs;

• Slow opening of the debt markets, principally through slowly increasing more traditional financing options vs. previous “rock and a hard place” management decisions to opt for more creative debt solutions including less conventional mechanisms such as high yield and highly conversion-oriented debt financing options to sustain operational-viability; and

• Substantial capital looking to deploy in sector ($61 billion focused on energy).

Page 32: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Upstream

32

M&A and Valuation Trends

Page 33: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

UpstreamPublic Markets

33

• Current market has placed an emphasis on companies living within cash flow or at least provide a line of sight to do so;

• For the last several years, public markets have paid premium multiples for basin-focused companies;

• Divestitures of non-core acreage;

• Companies with quality, low-cost drilling opportunities have had access to capital and focused on deployment and execution; and

• Companies have sought points of entry to low-cost development basins, like the Permian.

Private Equity

• Ample equity capital targeting Upstream and broadened adoption of the management team structure;

• Many monetizations in low-break-even basins over the last two years;

• New land-based models difficult to execute;

• Acquisitions of non-core assets; and

• Use of creative structures to get capital to work, drilling JVs and SPACs.

Page 34: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Upstream

34

NAM Upstream Transactions

Source: IHS

$15,814$16,134

$28,777

$31,143$30,077

$13,209

$47,542 $47,864

$9,037$10,656

$16,708

$24,197

$21,174

$32,884$35,766

$37,034

$2,785

$13,658

$8,597

$12,657$11,568

$18,837

$23,200$25,064

$49,356

$21,704

$12,693$9,788

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Tran

sact

ion

Val

ue (i

n Bi

llion

s U

SD)

Num

ber

of T

rans

acti

ons

Recent slowing in M&A activity as producers focus on developing key assets

Page 35: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Upstream

35

Permian activity has slowed as big Permian bets were made in 2016 through early 2017

NAM Upstream Permian Transactions

Source: IHS

8.4%

12.6%

7.2%

1.0%

12.7%10.5%

8.7%

32.2%

3.5%

12.7%

6.5%3.0%

16.5%

30.3%

8.3%

15.6%

10.3%

47.7%

17.6%

5.9%

15.5%

43.5%

49.5%

36.4%

14.7%15.2%

12.9%

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Perm

ian

Tran

sact

ion

Val

ue (i

n M

illio

ns U

SD)

Perm

ina

as a

% o

f NA

M U

pstr

eam

Trn

asac

tion

V

alue

Permian Transaction Value % of Total NAM Upstream Transaction Value

Page 36: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

UpstreamPermian most active basin by count and value

36

2017 Upstream Transaction Count By Basin

Source: IHS

Bakken, 13 DJ Niobrara, 12

Eagle Ford, 16

Haynesville, 13

Marcellus, 22

Permian, 80

SCOOP/STACK, 25

Utica, 6

Other (Undisclosed), 233

2017 Upstream Transaction Value By Basin (Millions USD)

Source: IHS

Bakken, $2,650 DJ Niobrara, $1,727

Eagle Ford, $5,751

Haynesville, $634

Marcellus, $11,438

Permian, $24,332

SCOOP/STACK, $3,388 Utica, $548

Other (Undisclosed), $43,074

Page 37: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Upstream

37

2017 Upstream Transaction Count By Buyer Profile

Source: IHS

Strategic Energy Companies, 311

Private Equity & Private Equity-Backed Groups,

22

Undisclosed and Other Non-Energy Companies, 87

Page 38: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Upstream

38

NAM Upstream Median Enterprise Value / EBITDAX

Source: S&P Capital IQ and StoutNote: Multiples based on historical EV and forward EBITDAX estimates as of December 31, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 (2017E, 2018E, 2019E)

6.8x

9.0x

18.8x

12.6x

8.4x

5.8x5.0x

6.5x

12.6x

7.2x

5.5x4.8x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

20.0x

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Upstream Permian

Page 39: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Upstream

39

Equity Index Performance - XOP

Source: S&P Capital IQ

52.66

33.69

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

Equity Index Performance - XOP vs. S&P 500

Source: S&P Capital IQ

83.7%

-36.0%

-80.0%

-30.0%

20.0%

70.0%

Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

S&P 500 IndexSPDR Fund Index-NAV-Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Page 40: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

UpstreamM&A activity levels have remained reasonably well paced:

40

• Rush to buy in 2016/2017, now producers are only selling off non-core, non-strategic assets to free up capital to support acquired acreage;

• Focus on holding and developing acreage;

• Low break-even prices in key Permian areas driving producers to drill and monetize acquired assets; and

• Average transaction sizes have generally declined.

Other considerations:

• Permian assets are very expensive;

• Other basins, such as the Rockies and SCOOP/STACK seen as attractive alternatives to the Permian; and

• Continued consolidation for natural gas focused operators.

Page 41: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Midstream

41

M&A and Valuation Trends

Page 42: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Midstream

42

NAM Midstream Transactions

Source: IHS

$4,051$3,625

$10,251

$50,482

$6,840

$14,917

$4,957$10,425

$7,147$4,747$3,079

$14,099

$726

$10,710

$73,389

$51,464

$22,195

$37,059

$28,936

$14,212$14,627

$4,759

$60,280$58,192

$33,990

$11,440

$3,620$4,182

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Tran

sact

ion

Val

ue (i

n M

illio

ns U

SD)

Num

ber

of T

rans

acti

ons

Page 43: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Midstream

43

2017 Midstream Transaction Count By Sector

Source: IHS

Diversified, 27

Gas Processing, 9

Gathering, 17

Pipelines, 17

Tankers, 2

2017 Midstream Transaction Value By Sector (Millions USD)

Source: IHS

Diversified, $45,832

Gas Processing, $1,465

Gathering, $3,138

Pipelines, $2,730 Tankers, $68

Page 44: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Midstream

44

2017 Midstream Transaction Count By Basin

Source: IHS

Bakken, 1 DJ Niobrara, 3

Eagle Ford, 1Haynesville, 1

Marcellus, 5

Permian, 19

SCOOP/STACK, 3

Other (Undisclosed), 39

2017 Midstream Transaction Value By Basin (Millions USD)

Source: IHS

DJ Niobrara, $625 Eagle Ford, $829

Haynesville, $300 Marcellus, $2,106

Permian, $7,621

SCOOP/STACK, $1,350

Other (Undisclosed), $40,401

Page 45: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

2017 Midstream Transaction Count By Buyer Profile

Source: IHS

Strategic Energy Companies, 51

Private Equity & Private Equity-Backed Groups,

14

Undisclosed and Other Non-Energy Companies, 7

Midstream

45

Page 46: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

NAM Midstream Median Enterprise Value / EBITDA

Source: S&P Capital IQ and StoutNote: Multiples based on historical EV and forward EBITDA estimates as of December 31, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 (2017E, 2018E, 2019E)

15.0x

10.5x

12.4x11.1x 10.7x 10.3x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

20.0x20

14

2015

2016

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

Midstream

Midstream

46

Page 47: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Midstream

47

Equity Index Performance - AMZ

Source: S&P Capital IQ

385.09

270.42

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

Equity Index Performance - AMZ vs. S&P 500

Source: S&P Capital IQ

83.7%

-29.8%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17

S&P 500 Index Alerian MLP Index

Page 48: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

MidstreamM&A activity levels continue to be strong:

48

• Demand for midstream infrastructure due to continued NAM production growth;

• MLPs to increase distributions to unit holders;

• More efficient cost of capital structures resulting in GP/LP mergers;

• Dedicated acreage contracts in prolific basins commanding high valuations; and

• Synergistic acquisitions that support and augment currently owned assets.

Other considerations:

• Credit-worthiness of E&P producers that are counterparties to contracts; and

• Private equity and infrastructure fund capital backing new construction.

Page 49: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Thank You

49

Shishir [email protected]

713.221.5119

Robert [email protected]

713.221.5131

Todd [email protected]

713.221.5174

Page 50: FEI Houston Energy SIG · Strategic Alternative Assessments ... companies since 2012 in the Thomson Reuters Mergers and Acquisitions Review. Individual yearly rankings: 2017 (2),

Stout is a trade name for Stout Risius Ross, LLC and Stout Risius Ross Advisors, LLC, a FINRA registered broker-dealer and SIPC member firm.