fertility in india trends and prospects€¦ · annual tfr decrease, tamil nadu, based on 3 year...

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Fertility in India Trends and ProspectsCarl HaubPopulation Reference Bureau [email protected]

© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

Map not to scale


Population Distribution of India by State, 2001

Maharashtra9.4%

West Bengal7.8%

Andhra Pradesh7.4%

Tamil Nadu6.1%

Other states33.7%

Uttar Pradesh16.2%

Bihar8.1%

Madhya Pradesh5.9%

Rajasthan5.5%

2001 Census of India

“EAG” states =

40% of population

2007 TFR >3.0 states =

42% of population


Total Fertility Rate, India and Major States, 2007

2.7

3.9 3.9

3.4 3.43.1

2.7 2.6 2.62.4

2.32.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

1.7 1.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

INDIA

Uttar P

radesh

BiharRaja

sthan

Madhya P

radesh

Chhattisgarh

Assam

Haryana

Gujarat

Orissa J&K

Karnata

kaMah

arashtraDelh

iPunjab

West Ben

gal

Himach

al Prad

esh

Andhra Prad

esh

Kerala

Tamil Nadu

Sample Registration System


Percent of Population Urban, India, 1901 - 2001

10.9 10.311.2

12.0

13.9

17.3 18.0

19.9

23.3

25.7

27.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

Censuses of India


Total Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, 2007

3.0

4.2 4.1

3.7 3.73.5 3.4

2.9 2.9 2.82.5

2.0

3.12.9

2.62.3 2.2 2.1

1.5

2.2 2.3

1.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

INDIA

Uttar P

radesh

Bihar

Rajasth

anMad

hya Prad

eshJh

arkhan

dChhattis

garh

Assam

Gujarat

Haryana

Orissa

RuralUrban



Total Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, 2007 - con’t

2.52.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9

1.7 1.71.5

1.7 1.8 1.8

1.41.6

1.41.7

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

J&K

Karnata

ka

Mahara

shtra

Punjab

West Ben

galAndhra

Prades

hHim

achal

Prades

h

Kerala

Tamil Nadu

RuralUrban



Total Marital Fertility Rate, India, Total, Rural, and Urban, 1998 and 2007

4.64.4

4.84.5

4.23.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

India 1998, National TFR = 3.2 India 2007, National TFR = 2.7

TotalRuralUrban



Total Marital Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, 2007

4.5

5.7

4.85.1 5.0

5.2 5.1

5.8

4.2 4.3 4.23.9

5.7

3.84.0 4.0 3.9

4.7

4.03.6

4.4

3.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

INDIA

Uttar P

radesh

Rajasth

anMad

hya Prad

eshJh

arkhan

dChhattis

garh

Bihar

Assam

Gujarat

Haryana

Orissa

RuralUrban



Total Marital Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, 2007 - con’t

5.3

4.2

3.4

4.4

3.6 3.5

4.8

3.74.0

3.2

4.03.7 3.7

4.1

3.2 3.3

4.7 4.6

3.9 3.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

J&K

Karnata

kaMah

arashtra

PunjabWest

Bengal

Andhra Prad

esh

Himach

al Prad

esh

Kerala

Tamil Nadu

Delhi

RuralUrban



Uttar Pradesh Bihar KeralaPopulation 2001 (millions) 166 83 32Population 2009 196 97 34 Literacy Male/Female (%), 2001 69/42 60/33 94/88 Total fertility rate, 2007 3.9 3.9 1.7Modern contraceptive prev. ‘07-08 26.7 28.4 53.1Traditional contra. prev. ‘07-08 11.4 3.6 9.0Urban population (%), 2001 21 10 26Percent of population < age 15, 2001 41 42 26Households with electricity (%) ‘07-08 38 10 70HH with access to toilet facility, ‘07-08 26 17 97HH in permanent-type house, 2001 53 41 68 HH, with television, 2001 25 9 39 HH with car, jeep, or van, 2001 2.2 0.9 4.0 HH with two-wheeler, 2001 10.4 3.6 10.0 HH in one-room house, 2001 30 43 11 HH with low standard of living, ‘07-08 64 80 92001 Census of India, District Level Health Survey, 2007-2008, and PRB projections

The “Demographic Divide” in Three States of India


UTTAR PRADESH: 2001 CensusReported Population, by Age and Sex------------------------ --------------------------- ---------------------------Age Male Female Female minus Sex------------------------ --------------------------- --------------------------- Male Ratio All ages 87,563,471 78,631,176

0-4 10,791,490 10,021,978 -769,512 1.0775-9 13,205,699 11,795,908 -1,409,791 1.12010-14 12,041,869 10,367,597 -1,674,272 1.16115-19 9,018,223 7,098,006 -1,920,217 1.27120-24 7,007,116 6,363,864 -643,252 1.10125-29 6,009,187 5,835,437 -173,750 1.03030-34 5,364,259 5,497,795 133,536 0.97635-39 5,100,187 4,751,820 -348,367 1.07340-44 4,334,189 3,748,960 -585,229 1.15645-49 3,468,288 3,200,143 -268,145 1.08450-54 3,027,280 2,330,914 -696,366 1.29955-59 1,992,036 2,121,263 129,227 0.93960-64 2,274,377 2,036,975 -237,402 1.11765-69 1,474,525 1,445,036 -29,489 1.02070-74 1,258,532 991,321 -267,211 1.27075-79 500,502 446,838 -53,664 1.120


8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Population Pyramid of Uttar Pradesh, 2001 Census, Unsmoothed

2001 Census of India

Age

Males Females


8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Females

Population Pyramid of Uttar Pradesh, 2001 Census, Smoothed

2001 Census of India, smoothed

Age

Percent

Males


10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Births per 1,000 population

Crude Birth Rate, India, 2000 - 2008

Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System


Have States Shown a Tendency for a Slowdown in TFR Decline As an “Ultimate Level” is Reached?


Crude Birth Rate, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, 1971 - 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Uttar PradeshRajasthan




Crude Birth Rate, Bihar and Jharkhand, 1971 - 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

BiharJharkhand




Crude Birth Rate, Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh 1971 - 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Madhya PradeshChhattisgarh




0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

BiharUttar Pradesh

Children per woman

Total Fertility Rate, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, 2000 -2007



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Uttar PradeshKarnataka

Children per woman

Total Fertility Rate, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, Three Year Moving Averages, 1971-1973 to 2005-2007



Annual TFR Decrease, Kerala, Based on 3 Year Moving Average 1972-1974 to 2005-2007

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007


TFR = 2.1

TFR = 4.0


Annual TFR Decrease, Tamil Nadu, Based on 3 Year Moving Average 1972-1974 to 2005-2007

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004


TFR = 2.1

TFR = 3.9

TFR = 1.7


Annual TFR Decrease, Karnataka, Based on 3 Year Moving Average 1972-1974 to 2005-2007

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007


TFR = 2.1

TFR = 4.2


Annual TFR Decrease, West Bengal, Based on 3 Year Moving Average, 1982-1984 to 2005-2007

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Sample Registration System

TFR = 2.1

TFR = 4.1


Annual TFR Decrease, Uttar Pradesh, Based on 3 Year Moving Average, 1972-1974 to 2005-2007

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Sample Registration System

TFR = 4.1

TFR = 6.5


Annual TFR Decrease, Maharashtra, Based on 3 Year Moving Average, 1972-1974 to 2005-2007

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Sample Registration System

TFR = 2.1

TFR = 4.2


Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages 15-49 Modern and Traditional Methods, India, Four Surveys

27.3

3.1 2.44.3

34.2

6.8

3.15.0

34.3

5.4 4.87.3

37.3

4.9 5.27.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992-1993DHS

1998-1999DHS

2002-2003

DLHS

2005-2006DHS

F. Sterilization.

Pill, IUD

Injectable

Condom

Traditional


Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages 15-49 Modern and Traditional Methods, Bihar, Four Surveys

21.6

1.5

22.4

1.6

28.9

3.0

28.4

3.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1992-1993NFHS-1

1998-1999NFHS-2

2005-2006NFHS-3

2007-2008DLHS-3

(Ages 15-44)

Modern

Traditional


Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages 15-49 Modern and Traditional Methods, Uttar Pradesh, Four Surveys

18.5

1.3

22.0

5.7

29.3

14.3

26.7

11.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1992-1993NFHS-1

1998-1999NFHS-2

2005-2006NFHS-3

2007-2008DLHS-3

(Ages 15-44)

Modern

Traditional


Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages 15-49 Modern and Traditional Methods, Rajasthan, Four Surveys

30.9

0.9

38.1

1.9

44.4

2.8

54.0

2.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992-1993NFHS-1

1998-1999NFHS-2

2005-2006NFHS-3

2007-2008DLHS-3

(Ages 15-44)

Modern

Traditional


60.3 56.7 53.846.1 45.1 41.3 40.5

33.725.6 25.0 24.6

16.5

5.05.1

6.116.2

11.18.4

16.539.0

21.4

7.4 10.321.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Andhra

Prades

hKarn

ataka

Tamil N

adu

Kerala

Madhya

Prad

esh

Chhatt

isgarh

Rajasth

anWes

t Ben

gal

Orissa

BiharJh

arkha

ndUtta

r Pra

desh

Other methodsFemale sterilization

Percent of Currently Married Women, Ages 15-44, Using Female Sterilization and Using Other Methods, Selected States of India, 2007-2008

DLHS-3


46

6460 58

5653 53 52 51

41 41 4038 38 35

2522

17 16 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

INDIA

BiharJh

arkhan

dRaja

sthan

Andhra Prad

esh

West Ben

gal

Madhya P

radesh

Uttar P

radesh

Chhattisgarh

Haryana

Karnata

kaMah

arashtraAss

amOris

saGujar

atTamil N

aduPunjabKera

la

Jammu &

Kash

mir

Himach

al Prad

esh

Percent of Women, Ages 18-29, Married by Age 18, Major States of India, 2005-2006

NFHS-3


21

20 20 2020 20 20 20 20 21 21

21 21 2121

22 22 22

2323

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

INDIA

Bihar

Andhra Prad

esh

Rajasth

anHary

anaChhattis

garhUtta

r Prad

eshWest

Bengal

Karnata

kaJh

arkhan

dOris

saAss

amMah

arashtra

Gujarat

Madhya P

radesh

Tamil Nadu

Himach

al Prad

esh

PunjabKera

la

Jammu &

Kash

mir

Median Age of Women at Effective Marriage, All Ages, India and Major States, 2007

NFHS-3Sample Registration System


64.2

64.6

63.4

61.2

55.4

47.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

Percentage of Women, Ages 20-49, Married Before Age 18, by Age, India 2005-2006

NFHS - 3


2623 24 25 25 25

26 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

INDIA

Andhra Prad

esh

Karnata

kaWest

Bengal

Mahara

shtraTamil N

adu

Himach

al Prad

esh

Haryana

Orissa

Madhya P

radesh

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

Kerala

Rajasth

anJh

arkhan

dPunjabAss

amBihar

Jammu &

Kash

mir

Uttar P

radesh

Median Age at Sterilization of Women, India and Major States, 2005-2006

NFHS-3


1.2

2.6

2.11.8 1.9

1.3

1.7

4.0

3.6 3.5

2.9

2.5

2.12.3

0

1

2

3

4

No formaleducation

Belowprimary

Primary Middle Class X Class XII Graduate &above

Andhra PradeshUttar Pradesh


Total Fertility Rate by Level of Education of Women Ages 15-49, 2007

Per cent


Percent of Married Women, Ages 15-49, with Two Children Who Want No More, District Level Health Surveys, Selected States of India

62

70

4650

3642 41

36

46

3439

43

33

80 79

6358 56 56 56 56

5146 46 44 44

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

West Ben

galTamil N

adu

Kerala

Orissa

Uttar P

radesh

Madhya P

radesh

Rajasth

anUtta

r Prad

eshKarn

ataka

Chhattisgarh

Jhark

hand

Andhra Prad

esh

Bihar

2002-032007-08

DLHS-1 and -3


1419 20

3637

6672

61

87 90

41

73

88

64

8995

57

76

88

62

8995

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

No sons 1 son 2 sons No sons 1 son 2 sons

One living childTwoThreeFour

Demographic and Health Surveys

Currently Married Women, Ages 15-49, Who Want No More Children by Number of Living Children and Number of Living Sons, India, NFHS-1 and NFHS-3

Per cent

NFHS-1, 1992-93 NFHS-3, 2005-06


Sex Ratio at Birth in Poorest-performing States of India, 1999-2001 to 2005-2007

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1999-01 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-2007

PunjabHaryanaRajasthanGujaratHimachal Pradesh


Children per woman


Sex Ratio at Birth in Medium-performing States of India, 1999-2001 to 2005-2007

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1999-01 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-2007

Uttar PradeshBiharMaharashtraAndhra PradeshAssam


Children per woman


Sex Ratio at Birth in Best-performing States of India, 1999-2001 to 2005-2007

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1999-01 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-2007

Madhya PradeshKeralaKarnatakaWest BengalOrissaTamil Nadu


Children per woman


Some Observations and Questions

SRS birth rates are coming down.

While birth rates are coming down, many large states are still in the middle of their fertility transition.

Is the glass half empty or half full? Is a family size of two children “in the cards” for the EAG states and other higher-fertility states?

If sex-selective abortion is successfully prohibited is a two child family likely?

Cultural and societal values vary greatly across the country.

What may hold true in one state may not in another.

Village in Uttar Pradesh


Some Observations and Questions - con’t

The effectiveness of grass-roots programs such as NRHM is highly dependent on the cooperation of state governments.

Will the very low TFRs observed in the south rise as affluence rises?

Should subnational projections of large countries with varying TFRs be run and then aggregated to the national level?

Would the above be worth the effort?

Opinions in India regarding TFR prospects in UP, etc., see TFRs of 2.1 or lower as a “distant dream.”

But, to repeat, SRS birth rates are declining.Village in Tamil Nadu

fertility in india trends and prospects€¦ · annual tfr decrease, tamil nadu, based on 3 year...

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