fertilizer and global food security

Fertilizer and Global Food Fertilizer and Global Food SecuritySecurity

ByAmit H. RoyAmit H. Roy

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Presented at the 66thth National Fertilizer ConferenceNational Fertilizer Conference

“Towards Increased Use of Fertilizer and Improved See d “Towards Increased Use of Fertilizer and Improved See d for Food Security and Economic Growth”for Food Security and Economic Growth”

August 20August 20--21, 200921, 2009Nairobi, Kenya Nairobi, Kenya

ContentsContents

�� Population, Fertilizer and Food Population, Fertilizer and Food �� Population and DietPopulation and Diet�� Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints�� BiofuelsBiofuels

AfricaAfrica

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�� AfricaAfrica�� ShortShort-- and Longand Long--Term Options for AfricaTerm Options for Africa

•• Fertilizer procurement and distributionFertilizer procurement and distribution•• Site & Crop Specific Nutrient Management Site & Crop Specific Nutrient Management •• Policy InterventionsPolicy Interventions——Rwanda Auction/VoucherRwanda Auction/Voucher

�� ConclusionsConclusions

ContentsContents

�� Population, Fertilizer and FoodPopulation, Fertilizer and Food�� Population and DietPopulation and Diet�� Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints�� BiofuelsBiofuels

AfricaAfrica

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World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

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Fertilizer(s)

� Provide plants with nutrients for growth and development

� Increase agricultural outputs, soil organic matter

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organic matter� Result in less extensive land use� Integral part of ‘Green Revolution’� Catalyst for economic growth and

development

Cereal Production in DevelopedCereal Production in Developedand Developing Countries, 1961and Developing Countries, 1961--20072007

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Developing Countries: Total Cereal Developing Countries: Total Cereal Production and Total Fertilizer Use, Production and Total Fertilizer Use,

1961/621961/62––2007/082007/08

90

120

150

Fe

rtil

ize

r U

se (

mil

lio

n m

t N

+P

2O

5+

K2

O)

900

1,200

1,500

Ce

rea

l P

rod

uct

ion

(m

illi

on

mt)Fertil izer Consumption

Cereal ProductionFertilizer Use

Cereal Production

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0

30

60

90

1961/62 1966/67 1971/72 1976/77 1981/82 1986/87 1991/92 1996/97 2001/02 2006/07

Fe

rtil

ize

r U

se (

mil

lio

n m

t N

+P

2O

5+

K2

O)

0

300

600

900

Ce

rea

l P

rod

uct

ion

(m

illi

on

mt)

Looking BackLooking Back�� Food production per person increased by 30% Food production per person increased by 30%

over past 5 decades, despite doubling of over past 5 decades, despite doubling of populationpopulation

�� Discontinuous productivity riseDiscontinuous productivity rise�� Major role for technologyMajor role for technology

•• Variety improvement (rice, wheat, maize)Variety improvement (rice, wheat, maize)

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•• Variety improvement (rice, wheat, maize)Variety improvement (rice, wheat, maize)•• FertilizersFertilizers•• MechanizationMechanization•• IrrigationIrrigation•• BiocidesBiocides

�� Proper institutions in placeProper institutions in place

But Can We Sustain and But Can We Sustain and Provide for 9 Billion…? Provide for 9 Billion…?

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Contents

� Population, Fertilizer and Food

�� Population and DietPopulation and Diet� Resource Constraints� Biofuels

Africa

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� Africa� Short- and Long-Term Options for Africa

• Fertilizer procurement and distribution• Site & Crop Specific Nutrient Management • Policy Interventions—Rwanda Auction/Voucher

� Conclusions

�� Population growthPopulation growth

•• 75 million per year 75 million per year

•• Over 9 billion by 2050Over 9 billion by 2050

Growth and Changes in Demand for FoodGrowth and Changes in Demand for Food

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•• 95% of growth in developing countries95% of growth in developing countries

•• Highest growth: absolute in Asia, relative Highest growth: absolute in Asia, relative in subin sub--Saharan AfricaSaharan Africa

•• Urban population in developing world to Urban population in developing world to double in 25 yearsdouble in 25 years

World Per Capita Food ConsumptionWorld Per Capita Food Consumption(kcal/person/day)(kcal/person/day)

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Global demand for foodGlobal demand for food

World population increase2000: 6 000 000 0002050: >9 000 000 000

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Increasing wealth → meat consumption increases

Pounds of grain needed to produce one pound of bread or one pound of live weight gain in each animal

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�� 2 m2 m2 2 for 10 roses per weekfor 10 roses per week�� X 100 mX 100 m2 2 for a vegetarian dietfor a vegetarian diet�� X 1000 mX 1000 m2 2 for a diet with meatfor a diet with meat

Agro Production AreaAgro Production Area

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One kg of beef requires 15 One kg of beef requires 15 times more water to times more water to

produce than one kg of produce than one kg of

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produce than one kg of produce than one kg of wheatwheat

ContentsContents

�� Population, Fertilizer and Food Population, Fertilizer and Food �� Population and DietPopulation and Diet

�� Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints�� BiofuelsBiofuels

AfricaAfrica

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�� Land ConstraintLand Constraint

•• Arable land areas may increase in some Arable land areas may increase in some countries but will decrease in mostcountries but will decrease in most

Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints

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countries but will decrease in mostcountries but will decrease in most

•• Gains will be offset by losses due to land Gains will be offset by losses due to land degradation and urbanizationdegradation and urbanization

Availability of Arable Land Per Person

0.8

1

1.2H

ecta

res

per

pers

on

North America

Sub-SaharanAfrica

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1961 1990 2025

Hec

tare

s pe

r pe

rson

India

China

�� Water ConstraintsWater Constraints

•• Globally agriculture accounts for 70% of Globally agriculture accounts for 70% of water usedwater used

•• Considerable disparity in water Considerable disparity in water

Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints

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•• Considerable disparity in water Considerable disparity in water availability among regions and sub availability among regions and sub regionsregions

•• People living in waterPeople living in water--scarce countries scarce countries will increase from 245 million (2000) to will increase from 245 million (2000) to more than 850 million (2025)more than 850 million (2025)

Availability of Fresh Water Per PersonAvailability of Fresh Water Per Person

20

25

30

'000

cub

ic m

eter

s/ye

ar

North America

Sub-SaharanAfrica

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0

5

10

15

20

1961 1990 2025

'000

cub

ic m

eter

s/ye

ar

North Africa

India

Any water?Any water?

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ContentsContents

�� Population, Fertilizer and Food Population, Fertilizer and Food �� Population and DietPopulation and Diet�� Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints

�� BiofuelsBiofuelsAfricaAfrica

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World Production(million tons, 2005)


Feeding the World Feeding the World while Producing Biofuelswhile Producing Biofuels

Ethanol (Bgal)

Biodiesel (Bgal)

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Source: FAPRISource: FAPRI

Estimates of Global Fertilizer UseEstimates of Global Fertilizer Useon Biofuel Crops: 2007/08 (Mt nutrients)on Biofuel Crops: 2007/08 (Mt nutrients)

Source: IFASource: IFA

2.9%

5.4%

Total = 5.5 Mt nutrients or

3.3% of world demand

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2.7%

Source : IFA Agriculture Committee

Global climate change and Global climate change and declining soil fertility adds to the declining soil fertility adds to the

challenges to food productionchallenges to food production

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Increasing Population, Changes in Diet, Increasing Population, Changes in Diet, BiofuelsBiofuels production Land and Water production Land and Water Constraints Climate change and Soil Constraints Climate change and Soil Health will Require Agriculture to be Health will Require Agriculture to be

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Health will Require Agriculture to be Health will Require Agriculture to be more Adaptive Efficient and Productivemore Adaptive Efficient and Productive

ContentsContents


AfricaAfrica

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Cereal Yields Per Hectare by Regions, Cereal Yields Per Hectare by Regions, 2006/07 (mt/ha)2006/07 (mt/ha)

2.43

1.44

1.16

Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

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3.26

3.26

2.63

2.43

Latin America

World

South Asia

Near East and North Africa

Cereal Production, 1961–2007(Index: 1961 = 100)

Are

a

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Yield

Are

a

South Asia Sub-Saharan AfricaDerived from FAO data.

Africa Has Lowest Per Hectare Use Fertilizers Africa Has Lowest Per Hectare Use Fertilizers (kg/ha)(kg/ha)


Continent in need of fertilizer is Continent in need of fertilizer is well endowed with fertilizer well endowed with fertilizer

resources.resources.

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Significant Potential Nitrogen and Significant Potential Nitrogen and Potash Resources of AfricaPotash Resources of Africa

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Significant Phosphate Deposits of AfricaSignificant Phosphate Deposits of Africa

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The Africa Fertilizer SummitThe Africa Fertilizer Summit

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June 9 – 13, 2006

Abuja DeclarationAbuja Declaration

Fertilizer is Crucial for Achieving Fertilizer is Crucial for Achieving an African Green Revolutionan African Green Revolution

Fertilizer is a Strategic Commodity Fertilizer is a Strategic Commodity

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Twelve Resolutions AdoptedTwelve Resolutions Adopted

Fertilizer is a Strategic Commodity Fertilizer is a Strategic Commodity Without BordersWithout Borders

ContentsContents�� Population, Fertilizer and Food Population, Fertilizer and Food �� Population and DietPopulation and Diet�� Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints�� BiofuelsBiofuels�� AfricaAfrica

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�� AfricaAfrica�� ShortShort-- and Longand Long--Term Options for Term Options for

AfricaAfrica•• Fertilizer procurement and distributionFertilizer procurement and distribution•• Site & Crop Specific Nutrient Management Site & Crop Specific Nutrient Management •• Policy InterventionsPolicy Interventions——Rwanda Auction/VoucherRwanda Auction/Voucher


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Fertilizer Price Formation: Fertilizer Price Formation: Thailand vs. SubThailand vs. Sub--Saharan Africa Saharan Africa

X

X + 49%

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X + 80%


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�� AfricaAfrica�� ShortShort-- and Longand Long--Term Options for Term Options for

AfricaAfrica•• Fertilizer procurement and distributionFertilizer procurement and distribution•• Site & Crop Specific Nutrient ManagementSite & Crop Specific Nutrient Management•• Policy InterventionsPolicy Interventions——Rwanda Auction/VoucherRwanda Auction/Voucher


Nitrogen Use EfficiencyNitrogen Use Efficiency

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Air(80% Nitrogen)

Ammonia

Energy and Feedstock (Natural Gas)

NitrogenNitrogen

Urea

Energy (Natural Gas) and Carbon Dioxide

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One Ton Urea Requires Energy Contained in 4 Barrels of Oil

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A Simple Technology

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Urea Deep PlacementUrea Deep Placement

UDP: Background and BenefitsUDP: Background and Benefits

�� 11--3 g briquettes, in root 3 g briquettes, in root zone at transplantingzone at transplanting

�� Slower release = nutrient Slower release = nutrient use efficiency improvesuse efficiency improves

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use efficiency improvesuse efficiency improves�� Expanded in Expanded in

Bangladesh, and Bangladesh, and Introduced in Central Introduced in Central and West Africaand West Africa

Prilled Urea and USG Prilled Urea and USG

Prilled Urea Spherical

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Tablet Pillow(Briquettes)

Conversion Conversion

of Prilled Urea to of Prilled Urea to

USG Using an USG Using an

Prilled Urea

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IFDCIFDC--Designed Designed

BriquetterBriquetterBriquette Machine

for USG

USG

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Comparison Yields Between Comparison Yields Between Broadcast and Urea Deep Broadcast and Urea Deep

Placement MethodsPlacement Methods——BangladeshBangladesh

6,432

7,676

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000(k

g/ha

)

6,432

7,676

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000(k

g/ha

)


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Broadcast Deep Placement

(kg/

ha)

Paddy Yield

(Kg/ha)

125 kg N/ha

77 kg N/ha

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Broadcast Deep Placement

(kg/

ha)

Paddy Yield

(Kg/ha)

125 kg N/ha

77 kg N/ha

Crop Specific Nutrient Crop Specific Nutrient managementmanagement

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Effect of Balanced FertilizationEffect of Balanced Fertilization

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AfricaAfrica

�� ShortShort-- and Longand Long--Term Options for AfricaTerm Options for Africa•• Fertilizer procurement and distributionFertilizer procurement and distribution•• Site & Crop Specific Nutrient ManagementSite & Crop Specific Nutrient Management

•• Policy InterventionsPolicy Interventions——Rwanda Rwanda Auction/VoucherAuction/Voucher


Agricultural Intensification Program Agricultural Intensification Program –– 2008/09 Seas on2008/09 Season

Fertilizer Auction Objectives

-Transfer fertilizer retail business to the private sector to catalyze development of a competitive system

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competitive system

-Reduce impact of unprecedented high international market prices by providing 25% subsidy to all users

Source: Dr. Agnes Kalibatta, Minister of Agriculture, RwandaSource: Dr. Agnes Kalibatta, Minister of Agriculture, Rwanda

Agricultural Intensification Program Agricultural Intensification Program –– 2008/09 Seas on2008/09 Season

Voucher Program Objectives

-Target resource limited maize and wheat farmers in the districts to provide Product Purchase Support (PPS)

-Wheat and maize chosen as fertilizer use is less known and less profitable Subsidy + Voucher urea 62% DAP 69%

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62% DAP 69%

- Introduce use of fertilizers and improved variety seed and other modern agricultural practices to these farmers thereby helping in increasing agricultural production to improve food security

- Encourage establishment of private sector distribution network to take on this function in the future


Growth (2008)Growth (2008)

Real growthReal growth 20082008 20072007 20022002--2006 2006 averageaverage

GDPGDP 11.2%11.2% 7.9%7.9% 6.2%6.2%

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Agriculture Agriculture 15.0%15.0% 0.7%0.7% 3.3%3.3%

IndustryIndustry 10.7%10.7% 10.2%10.2% 7.9%7.9%

ServicesServices 7.9%7.9% 12.8%12.8% 8.2%8.2%


Food consumption versus production Food consumption versus production

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

100

0 M

T C

ere

als

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

Requirements

Production

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900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2004A 2004B 2005A 2005 B 2006 A 2006 B 2007 A 2007B 2008A 2008B 2009A

100

0 M

T C

ere

als

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

Improved food securityImproved food security2007A = 1,800 kcal/per/day2007A = 1,800 kcal/per/day 2009A = 2,500 kcal/per/day2009A = 2,500 kcal/per/day

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• 13 districts below average • 2 districts below avg. with 9 districts with excess

ContentsContents


AfricaAfrica

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ConclusionsConclusions

�� World food security can be attainedWorld food security can be attained�� High productive agriculture is needed, High productive agriculture is needed,

productivity increase per hectare productivity increase per hectare indispensable indispensable

�� Fuel from biomass may have detrimental Fuel from biomass may have detrimental sideside --effectseffects

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Fuel from biomass may have detrimental Fuel from biomass may have detrimental sideside --effectseffects

�� Africa can achieve food security through Africa can achieve food security through focused interventionsfocused interventions•• Efficient fertilizer procurement and distributionEfficient fertilizer procurement and distribution•• Site & crop specific nutrient management: Site & crop specific nutrient management: •• Targeted subsidies/purchasing power support to Targeted subsidies/purchasing power support to

farmersfarmers

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fertilizer and global food security

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