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PotashCorp.com Fertilizer Market Trends and Outlook December 10, 2013 Jeff Holzman Director, Market Research

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PotashCorp.com

Fertilizer Market

Trends and Outlook

December 10, 2013

Jeff Holzman

Director, Market Research

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These

statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not

historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange

rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates.

While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they

may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the

forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign

exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax

rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and

availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes

in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and

financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around

the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes

in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected

geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in

new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of

work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of,

government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange

rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties

can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking

Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the

Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the

company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,

future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Agriculture and Fertilizer

Market Update

Source: FAO

Million Tonnes

Fruits & Vegetables

Million Tonnes

Oilseeds

Million Tonnes

Cereals

Rising Crop Production Drives Need for Increased Fertilizer Use

World Crop Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: IFA, Fertecon

Million Tonnes

Potash

Million Tonnes

Phosphate

Million Tonnes

Nitrogen

Rise in Consumption Tied to Crop Production; Political and Economic Events Make for Uneven Growth

World Fertilizer Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: IFA, Fertecon, PotashCorp

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nitrogen Phosphate Potash

China India

Other Asia Latin America

North America

Potash Has Most Diversity Amongst Regions and Crops

World Fertilizer Consumption by Region and Crop

Fertilizer Consumption by Region Fertilizer Consumption by Crop

Percent

16%

16%

14%

5% 10%

15%

4%

20%

Fruits &

Vegetables

Oilseeds

Sugar Crops

Corn

Other Grains

All Other

Rice

Wheat

Source: IFA, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 Nitrogen Phosphate Potash

Corn is the Major Driver of US Fertilizer Consumption

US Fertilizer Consumption Profile

Fertilizer Consumption Fertilizer Consumption by Crop

Million Tons

49%

11%

6%

34%

Oilseeds

Corn

All Other

Wheat

Source: USDA

2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year.

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F

Use Production Stocks-to-Use

Billion Bushels

Expect Record Production and Improved Demand Prospects

US Corn Supply/Demand

Stocks-to-Use - Percent

EPA Lowers Mandate but Positive Margins Could Support Additional Production

US Ethanol Profile

Producer and Blender Margins – Cents/Gallon US Corn Ethanol Use (Billion Gallons)

0

3

6

9

12

15

10 11 12 13F 14F

Consumption Exports

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13

Iowa Plant Margin

Chicago Blender Margin

Source: EIA, PIRA, ProExporter, PotashCorp

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

2013 2012 Prev. 5-yr Avg.

Million Tonnes, Cumulative

Strong Recovery in Offshore Demand for US Corn and Soybeans

US Weekly Corn and Soybean Export Commitments

Source: USDA

Shipping Weeks, September 1 to August 31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

2013 2012 Prev. 5-yr Avg.

Corn Export Commitments Soybean Export Commitments Million Tonnes, Cumulative

Shipping Weeks, September 1 to August 31

Million tonnes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

03 05 07 09 11 13F

Production Global Trade Share

Million tonnes

Soybean Production Expected to Rise; Corn Output to Decline

South America Crop Production

Soybean Production Corn Production

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

03 05 07 09 11 13F

Production Global Trade Share

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

Percent Share Percent Share

Source: USDA, PRX, Doane, PotashCorp

Million Acres

Wheat

Million Acres

Soybeans

Million Acres

Corn

Expect Some Acreage Shifts in 2014

US Crop Acreage

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Lighter shaded area refers to forecast range for 2014.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Crop Price Index* Fertilizer Price Index**

Price Index (2005 Average = 100)

Crop and Fertilizer Price Index

Significant Economic Incentive for Increased Fertilizer Usage

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)

** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)

Potash Market Update

Source: US Geological Survey

Economically Mineable Deposits Are Geographically Concentrated

World Potash Reserves*

Canada

46%

US 1%

Brazil

3%

Russia

35%

China

2%

Jordan

0.5%

Belarus

8%

Israel

0.5%

Chile 2%

* Share of world’s potash reserves; reserves as defined by the US Geological Survey

Other countries total 1 percent

Germany

1%

World Potash Trade

Major Exporters and Importers

Source: Fertecon, Industry publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Canada Russia Belarus Germany Israel Jordan

Million Tonnes KCl

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

World trade was approximately 44 million tonnes in 2011.

Approximately three-quarters of global production is traded.

Exports Imports

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

* PotashCorp investments: ICL (14%), APC (28%), SQM (32%) and Sinofert (22%)

Note: PotashCorp based on operational capability (estimated annual achievable production) while competitor

capacity is stated nameplate, which may exceed operational capability

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Vale (Brazil)

Intrepid (US)

SQM (Chile)*

APC (Jordan)*

Agrium (Canada)

K+S (Germany)

China*

ICL (Israel,Spain,UK)*

Belaruskali (Belarus)

Mosaic (Canada,US)

Uralkali (Russia)

PotashCorp (Constructed Capability)

Other Producers (Capacity)

Announced Expansions Through 2017

Million Tonnes KCl – 2013-2017F

Majority of the Capacity Increases Are Expected From Existing Producers

World Potash Producer Profile

PotashCorp

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash Shipments

Slower Demand Periods Have Been Followed by Robust Growth

6.5%

CAGR

5.5%

CAGR

1.7%

CAGR

1.4%

CAGR

Potash Shipments to Key Offshore Markets

Demand Has Been Relatively Strong in Markets Outside of India

Source: Fertecon, Industry publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F**

Latin America China Other Asia*

Million Tonnes KCl

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F**

India

* Excludes India.

**Forecast per PotashCorp; represents mid-point of range.

Thousand Tonnes KCl

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2 2013 Previous 5-Yr Avg

Million Tonnes KCl

Demand Has Strengthened in the Fourth Quarter

North America Potash Shipments

Domestic Producer Shipments Offshore Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 2013 Previous 5-Yr Avg

Source: IPNI, TFI, Blue Johnson, PotashCorp

November/December shipments based on PotashCorp estimates. November/December imports based on Blue

Johnson and PotashCorp estimates.

Source: USDA, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

Million Short Tons KCl Equivalent Million Short Tons KCl Equivalent

Application Rates Have Not Kept Pace With Higher Crop Removal

US Potassium Application and Crop Removal

US Total Regional Application Deficit – 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Crop removal Fertilizer applied

Calculation based on commercial fertilizer application data, estimated nutrients available from manure and crop removal rates

for all major crops grown in the US.

3.7

1.4

0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

~ 8.0

million st

Phosphate Market

Update

Source: US Geological Survey

Large Concentration of Reserves in North Africa & Middle East

World Phosphate Rock Reserves*

US 2%

Brazil

<1%

China

6%

Peru 1%

* Share of world’s phosphate reserves; reserves as defined by the US Geological Survey. Total reserves estimated at 67 billion.

Morocco/

WS

75%

Russia 2%

N. Africa/ME

10%

Other Africa

3%

Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp

52.1

58.6

30

40

50

60

Million Tonnes P2O5

Majority of Capacity Being Developed in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Brazil

Global Phosphoric Acid Capacity Additions

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

India China Other Asia Latin America North America Other

Million Tonnes Product

Indian and Chinese Demand Has a Significant Impact on the Global Market

World DAP and MAP Consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F

India Brazil Other Asia Other

Million Tonnes

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F

China Russia US

Morocco Saudi Arabia Other

Million Tonnes

Demand Recovery in India to Support Global Phosphate Trade

World DAP and MAP Trade

World DAP/MAP Exports World DAP/MAP Imports

Source: CRU, TFI, PotashCorp

Million Short Tons

Inventory

Million Short Tons, Cumulative

Exports

Million Short Tons, Cumulative

Domestic Sales

Lower Sales Have Resulted in Elevated Inventory

US DAP/MAP Use and Inventory Exports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4 2013 Previous 5-Yr Avg

Source: TFI

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 2013 Previous 5-Yr Avg

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 2013 Previous 5-Yr Avg

Nitrogen Market Update

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

Projected Capacity 1-Year Prior Actual Capacity

Capacity - Million Tonnes

Ammonia Capacity Projections vs. Actual Additions

Global Ammonia Projects Have Faced Delays

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Thousand Tonne Urea

Impact of China’s Export Tax on Urea Trade Volumes

China Urea Exports by Month

Blue denotes high export tax months; Green denotes low-tax window

Source: NDRC of China, CRU, PotashCorp

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

US Middle East

Russia China (Coal)

Ukraine (Port)

Cost Range

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 Cost Range

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

Note: Cost of production estimates based on natural gas price forecast for 2013.

US$/Tonne US$/Tonne

Production Costs Remain High In Several Key Nitrogen Producing Regions

Delivered Cash Costs to the US Market

Ammonia Urea

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2013/2014 2012/2013 Previous 5-Yr Avg

Source: USDOC, PotashCorp

Note: Nitrogen imports include ammonia, urea, and UAN.

Million Short Tons (N basis)

Potential for a Robust Spring

US Cumulative Nitrogen Imports

Numerous Nitrogen Capacity Announcements; Few Under Construction

Potential North American Nitrogen Project Locations

- High Probability N Projects

- Medium Probability N

Projects

- More Speculative N

Projects

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