FHWA TRAVELER ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

Bus Trip Tables

May 9, 2013

Don Vary, CDM SmithKrishnan Viswanathan, CDM Smith

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Agenda

• Purpose• Data Examined• Methods Explored• Geography• Summary Results

– Base year 2008 – Forecast year 2040

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FHWA Traveler Analysis Framework

• VMT Forecasting and Analysis Model• Long Distance Passenger Inter-regional Travel Origin

Destination Data• National Travel Model • Long distance passenger travel modal choice model• Freight and passenger integration, and multimodal

analysis

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Project Objective and Deliverables

• To provide baseline travel information for analyzing projects of regional and national significance, corridors, policy initiatives, interstate commerce, and Federal programs.

• Auto, bus, rail, aviation• Long-distance inter-regional multimodal passenger

travel origin destination matrix for 2008 and 2040• A set of documented and transparent methodologies to

expedite future development

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Project Team

FHWADaniel Jenkins,

Project Manager

Roger Mingo Associates

Roger Mingo

CDM SmithKrishnan

ViswanathanDon Vary

RSG, Inc.Colin Smith

Bhargava Sana

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Data Examined• 1995 ATS• 2001 NHTS• California Long Distance Survey

(2011)• Ohio Long Distance Survey (2002-

2003)• 2008 American Bus Association

Motor Coach Survey• 2011 Federal Motor Carrier Safety

Administration Data• Russell’s National Motor Coach

Guide

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Trip Generation

Age IncomeVehicles

0 1+Under 18 Under $35,000 0.062 0.097 $35,000-$75000 0.872 0.155 >$75,000 0.868 0.15618-64 Under $35,000 0.342 0.474 $35,000-$75000 0.619 0.263 >$75,000 0.411 0.15165 and older Under $35,000 0.679 0.212 $35,000-$75000 1.045 0.190 >$75,000 1.051 0.097Source: CDM Smith and American Travel Survey

Destination Choice

• 1.41 * (LN(HH) + 2 *LN (EMP)) - 2.34 * LN (DISTANCE)

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Trip Length DistributionBus

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

100 to200

miles

200 to300

miles

300 to400

miles

400 to500

miles

500 to600

miles

600 to700

miles

700 to800

miles

800 to900

miles

900 to1000miles

Morethan1000miles

1995 ATS Bus

Estimated 2008 Bus

Estimated 2040 Bus

To Orlando > 5K Trips

To Los Angeles > 5K Trips

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Summary Results

Auto Air Rail BusShare 1995 81.3% 16.1% 0.5% 2.0%Share 2008 82.2% 14.5% 0.6% 2.3%Share 2040 80.1% 16.7% 0.6% 2.2%Total Growth (1995 to 2008) 50% 34% 81% 68%

Annual Total Growth (1995 to 2008) 3.2% 2.3% 4.7% 4.1%Total Growth (2008 to 2040) 43% 69% 46% 38%

Annual Total Growth (2008 to 2040) 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0%

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Geography

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Final Products

OD flow data by mode (number of trips by mode) for the identified 226 zones

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Recommendations and Observations

• The to be released OD data shall be recognized as synthesized data and shall be used as a starting point for any other project and program.

• Additional verification and analysis are strongly recommended.

• New national comprehensive passenger flow OD data survey shall be conducted.

• FHWA is going through its review and possible enhancement on bus and geography data. Data should be released by the end of the summer.

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Thank you!