figure 1: understanding historical temperature …€¦ · web viewfigure 1: understanding...

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EdGCM Modeling Results

The global circulation model EdGCM was used to simulate future global temperatures for the baseline Business as Past” (A1G) scenario and emissions when 5 – 25 wedges of mitigation were implemented. The results of this modeling exercise are included below first as a summary graph that shows a time series of the global average temperature anomalies for each of these scenarios. This is followed by contour maps that show the global distribution of temperature anomalies.

Note: Although the Copenhagen Accord goal for limiting the global average temperature anomaly to no more than 2°C greater pre-industrial levels, limitations in the EdGCM model prevented anomalies over this time period from being calculated. Instead, the results here show temperature anomalies relative to the late 20th

century (1980-1999). Figure 1 shows the historical temperature anomaly relative to the 20th century average. Based on this figure, we can see that there has already been nearly 0.5.

Figure 2 plots the global average temperature anomaly for all 6 scenarios. These results show a 2 to 5 degree Celsius temperature increase above the late 20th century baseline. That could be interpreted as a 2.5 to 5.5 degree Celsius increase over the pre-industrial (late 19th century) baseline.

After reviewing the global average temperatures, you should also analyze where in the world the temperatures are increasing the most and the effectiveness of your mitigation strategy in limiting the future temperature increases.

To get to the proper page for the number of wedges you considered, click the appropriate link for your number of wedges choice below:

5 10 15 20 25For each wedge scenario, the baseline A1G temperature anomaly map is also given. You can compare your choice of wedges to what the world would have looked like had you done nothing. The maps given are Mercator projection; so though it looks as though there is much warming in, say, the North Pole region, remember that the area covered is much smaller than areas near the equator.

Project Module prepared for the NASA GCCE Project-Based Global Climate Change Education Project Copyright 2011 © Office of Educational Partnerships, Clarkson University, August 2011. http://www.clarkson.edu/highschool/Climate_Change_Education/index.html

Figure 1: Understanding historical temperature anomalies. Data from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php

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Global Average Temperature Anomaly(Relative to 1980-1999)

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Figure 2: Results of EdGCM simulations showing the potential increase in the global average temperature during the 21st century

http://www.clarkson.edu/highschool/Climate_Change_Education/index.html

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figure 1: understanding historical temperature …€¦ · web viewfigure 1: understanding...

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