final iff agriculture gambia

8/10/2019 Final IFF Agriculture Gambia

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UNDP Global Project:Capacity Development for Policy Makers

to address Climate Change

Final Report

Assessment of Investment and Financial

Flows for Adaptation to Climate ChangeIn the Agriculture Sector in Gambia

October 2011

United Nations DevelopmentProgram (UNDP)

Republic of The GambiaMinistry of Agriculture


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2

C C

. P L

D C ,

,

.

,

(I&FF) NDP E &

E G : C D P M A C C.

G 19 , M 2008

G N, G F,

G N F NDP.


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2

:

F F

J K E.

E. J

A C

G

B C

M N

:

P O J

NDP G: A C

:

R C, G P M, NDP N

O, C C F A, NDP N

AL, P A, NDP N

F . 2011. A I F F

G.

()

N, NDP, M .


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List of Tables

1. E M A I A I&FF

O&M 13

2. I E I&FF F 14 3. D R (12%) A 20

4. H I C P 20

5. P A G 26Table 6. Historical Data 2000-2005 Cumulative Discounted (12%) IF, FF, and O&M Estimates,By Investment Type, Investment Entity, and Funding Source 28Table 7. Estimates of the Cumulative Amounts Discounted I&FF and O&M Costs fromthe Baseline Scenario from 2010-2030 (million 2005 US$) 30

8. A IF, FF, & O&M E B 12%

( 2005$) 31Table 9. Estimates of the Annual Discounted I&FF and O&M Costs from the AdaptationScenario from 2010-2030 (million 2005 US$) 33Table 10. Estimates of the Annual Discounted I&FF and O&M Costs from theAdaptation Scenario from 2010-2030 (million 2005 US$) 34Table 11.Incremental Cumulative Discounted I&FF Estimates, By Investment Type,Investment Entity, and Funding Source from 2010-2030 (million 2005 US$) 35Table 12. Incremental Annual Discounted IF & FF Estimates by Investment Type from2010-2030 (million 2005 US$) 36

List of Figures

F 1. E (G) M A G 2000 23

F 2. E (G) M A 23F 3. F C P (%) 2010 24

F 4. F C P 2007 2010 (M) 24


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1. Introduction to the Economy and the Agricultural Sector

G , 80% . R

53% 60% . B 2004 2009

56% .

E (58%), (30%) (12%). R GDP

7.2% 2009 32.2% GDP 2008. GDP

D 556 2009

26.64 G D (GMD) D. I

J 2008.

D 2008,

5 6% 2007 2008. G

15% J 2007, 5% M

2008, GNAIP 20102.

C B .

. G

.

G

.

. I 7.8% GDP 2007

0.5% (GNAIP 20110) 2008 .

D 32% (I3) 2007

D

.

HI P C (HIPC)

D 2007 133.6%

50.0% GDP. A , 1.4 GDP 0.4

2008. C, G

1 G , , ,

G B M2A .

3I, .


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PRP , , ,

, GANIP, 2010.

A G ,

.

G

99%

GDP (30%)

(70%). M D G (MDG),

2020;

.

A

, C D (CO2)

,

. C

, ,

, , , , .

, ,

. :

C ,

I CO2,

C ( , ,

, , ),

A , ,

.

C .

, , ,

( ,

, , );

,

.

. , , ,

,

(.., ). I ,

. A

, , , ,

/ , ;

.


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1.1 Objectives

I F F (I&FF)

.

:

A ,

E ,

,

F ,

, C

,

I&FF ,

D

.

:

,

,

.

1.2 Background

A , 70%

. NAPA, 2007 ,

40% . A,

. E, /

.

.

I ,

. H

(..,


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8

), ,

NAPA, 2007.

A

, . M 70%, GNAIP 2010

4 G . A

,

C D (CO2)

,

. C

, , , , ,

, .

, , .

:

C , I CO2,

C ( , ,

, , ),

A , ,

.

C .

, , ,

( ,

, , );

,

.

.

, , ,

,

(.., ). I ,

. A

, , , , , /

, .

1.2.1 Previous Analysis Used

A G N F C C C

(NFCCC) J 1994; F N C (FNC)

C C D 2003.

,

4G N A I P 20112015, 2010


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9

.

. NAPA (N A P A)

NFCCC N 2007

. A C C, A & M P 20072011.

A :

E R ;

E ;

E

;

E

.

A G

. D

.

CO2,

G

. A

, 1960

.

G' FNC '

:

I : R ,

, ,

;

R : ,

. G

.

,

(H &, 1984; H, 1985; A, 1993). B 102 (18861987) ,

,

1968 1987, 1970 1976 (A,

1993).

F:

. ,

,


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10

.

1999 2003 13.1 .

O 60 6.4

1.1 C . R 30

30 , . ,

. L , B, , ,

, , . I

92 . 1 .

B

1. 217 D (F N

C R G NFCCC, 2003).

NAPA 2007 98% G

. C 40 . A

J (1534', 1329'N), (1550', 1330'N),

K (1613', 1329'N),

(N G, 2005). C

, (A ., 1992) ;

; ,

.

: 1) , 2) , 3) ,

:

) (, , , , , );

) ( , , );) ( );

) ( , ).

1.2.2 Institutional Arrangements and Collaborations

P G , I

F F .

I&FF

N C G. , NGO

: D A

N A R I

GBO

N E A

M F

M H

D F

D R


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12

. P ,

,

. H, ,

,

, , . I (

, ),

( ),

. N

. (.., ,

) (O&M

), .

A (FF) ;

.

E

, ,

.

, .., . E

, IF FF , 1

. N .

(&)

(O&M) (.., ). O I&FF

,

. F , O&M

( O&M )

.

O&M :

F / ,

P , I , . R

M /

O

A

L ( C )

R , : ; ;

;


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O , ,

,

I

D , , , , .

Table 1. Examples of Mitigation and Adaptation Investment Types and Associated I&FF and O&Mcosts

Sector (type ofclimate changemeasure)

Investment Type InvestmentFlows

Financial Flows Operation andMaintenancecost

Agriculture(mitigation)

Implementation ofimproved livestockfeeding program

Implementing costsincluding training

raw materials,e.g. fodder

Water(adaptation)

Construction of newdesalinization plant

Capital costs ofconstruction

Implementation ofprogram to repairleakages from urbanwater distributionsystems

Implementationcosts (inspectionand repair costs)

e.g. salary formechanist

Forestry(mitigation)

Implementation ofreduced impactlogging operations

Capital costs ofnew equipmentneeded toimplementreduced impactlogging techniques

Implementation ofimproved, low-techsilviculture

techniques toincrease stand-levelbiomass densities inmanaged forests

Implementationcosts, includingraw materials

(e.g., seedlings,soil amendments)and training

.

, , , ,

, , .

: , , .

.

& , , , , , .

.

I ,

, I&FF

.

I&FF,

.


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G

. F ,

. I ,

.

N (..,

) / (.., , , )

. ,

, ,

. , ,

. F ,

,

, , .

2 I&FF

I&FF . ,

, NFCCC (2007).

Table 2. Taxonomy of Investment Entities and Sources of I&FF Funds

Investment Entity Source of I&FF FundsHouseholds Domestic Equity and debtCorporations Domestic Domestic equity (including internal cash flow)

Domestic borrowing (bonds and loans)

Foreign Foreign direct investment (FDI)Foreign borrowing (loans)

Foreign aid (ODA)2Government Domestic Domestic funds (budgetary)

Foreign Foreign borrowing (bonds and loans)

Bilateral foreign aid (bilateral ODA)

Multilateral foreign aid (multilateral ODA)

H (.., )

. H , , , ,

. A , (),

( , , ),

(.., , , ),

I&FF. A

,

, .


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A,

.

C ,

. F

, ,

, , . N (

, , , ), (

, , , ). N

(NGO) . C

. ,

( ), (

),

(), (

; ODA ). A

(FDI) FDI

. H,

FDI ;

. O FDI

I&FF .

G , , , . F ,

, , ,

, . G

. E

, , ;

, , . N

( )

( ) (.., ).

( ,

, ) ( , ). I

( 22), ( ODA)

. B ODA ,

, . M ODA

(IFI) ( B),

, . ODA

, ,


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, ODA

.

A

. E I&FF

,

I&FF

.

, ..,

.

(..,

, ), ,

, (..,

) . I

, .

, ,

; .., I&FF,

O&M .

GHG , ..,

, (

), GHG ,

.

. ,

, ,

. B

, , .

GHG /

,

. F , .

, I&FF

(

).

(.., ) ,

. F ,

,


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. I ,

,

.

; ..,

IF, FF, O&M

. I&FF 20

30 . A 20 30

. A, GHG

20 30 , 20 30

. I ,

. A

; ,

, ,

. , ..,

, , .

I&FF O&M IF, FF, O&M

.

. A 2005 .

A 2030

,

. , 2005 2030 . A 2030

, . ,

2005 2030 .


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2. Scope, Data Inputs, and Scenarios

2.1 Sectoral Scope: The Rice Sub-Sector

.

81% (22.1 G) CH4

, .

A

, ,

.

O ( , , , ) 317,079

2010, 27% ,

. A 175, 67%

175, NA, 2010. G M D

G (MDG) 2020,

MDG

,, , .

2.2 Data Inputs and Scenarios

A G ,

I&FF ,

. C

,

, . I

,

.

A :

G B M A

M F

M E P I D

M F

M E R I

M F E

M F, R N A M


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M H

O P (NDMA, NNA, B)

N A

M H E.

, ,

; . R,

.

G

50 .

G , , ,

, , , GHG .

, ,

, ,

, , . ,

.

(GHG) , ,

, ,

.

,

.

, ,

. A ,

.

GHG

.

A

.

2030 2005 .

2.2.1 Assessment Period and Cost Accounting Parameters

2005 ,

. 2005


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2030. I , G D (GMD)

2005 D. 19

P . D CPI

$. C B G

GB , 2005 $ 1 = GMD 24.60, 3 .

Table 3. Discount Rate (12%) used for the Assessment

Dates May 06-Dec 06 Jan- Dec 07 Jan-Dec-08 Jan-Dec-09 Jan-Dec-10Rates 1.42 5.38 4.44 4.61 5.04

A , I&FF $ 2005

. , (CPI GBO) G.

4 H I C P (HICP) G

20052010.

Table 4. Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010HICP 15.78 33.35 37.18 52.4 59.5 44.4

G.

C B, . I&FF

2005 $ 2005 .

) C C C C D

I F F (I&FF) ,

, H I

C P (HICP) (2005=100) . F ,

2008 , 1500, HICP (2005=100)

2008 (52.4) 100. 1500

2862.60 .

) C C D $

O 2005 ( 2862.60),

2005 (.. 24.60) 2005 . I

, 116.34 $.

) C $ $

I I&FF $ ,

2005 $ $ HICP


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(2005=100). F , 2007 1000,

102.5, 100. 1000 $

975.22 2005 $.

2.2.2 Analytical Approach

A I&FF

. I ,

, NG O (NGO) G

.

,

E .

I , :

M 20002005

L

I&FF

.

,

.

R , .

620% .

F , 10% .

F ,

C B G B (GBO) 20042009.

2030 C P

I (CPI) GBO 20042009

5% 2030. , 5% I

M F (IMF).


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2.2.3 Historical IF, FF, O&M Data and Subsidies

75% G, CCA, 20085.

29% GDP 2009. I 75

50% .

I 70%,

G . A

. I G, 91%

72% .

, .

N ,

G , , ,

. 33%

GDP, 23%, 43%, 3% 2%,

(GBO6,2009).

A GHG

. CH4 ,

, , CO2

. E

.

A N G H G (GHG) R 2007, 83% (10.2 G CH4) .

, (, , , , ) 17%

(2.1G CH4) G; 1, .

A 12.3G CH4 64% ,

6.40G CH4 33% ,

0.39G CH4 2% 0.25G CH4 1%

.

5C C, A & M P, G, 2008

6GBO, G B


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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

C G D H M P

10.2G;

83%

0.5G;

4%

0.8G;

6% 0.4G;

3%

0.4G;

3%

0.1G;

1%

1: () 2000

: N GHG R, 2007

(N GHG, 2007) CH4

2 34% (6.40G), 63% (12G)

, 2% (0.39G) 1% (0.25G).

: N GHG R, 2007

O 555,000 (PH, 2010/2011),

57% (I) , .


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. 2010/2011 2007 2010

.

: PH, 2010/2011

: PH, 2010/2011

,

( , , ), , ,

. A 69,100 (500,000

) 57% . O

, 3,000 ,

, 1,500 2,000 .

L . C

Figure 3. Food Crop Production (%) in 2010

Figure 4. Food Crop Production from 2007 to 2010 (Mt)


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300,000 ,

(160,000) (230,000). P

, . I

700,000 , 90

, GNAIP, 2010.

D ,

2003 2.5% 2007.

M D

10% . H,

4.5% 2009 2010, 6% 2011, GNAIP 2010.

;

(A ); ..

; .

G

.

J O N

M . 900

500 . 14 40

. G

180 250 . A ,

( , 2010).

,

F 2000 2007,

( ). H A

D B (ADB) I F A D (IFAD)

/. M : () P

I M P (PIAMP); () R F P (RFP); ()

F M R I P (FMRIP); () M NERICA D

P (MNDP); () P I M I A P

(PIMIAP); () P I P (PIP); () R F


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C I P (RFCIP); () I R D P (KFAED);

() L H D P (LHDP); () NERICA R P.

O, ,

, , , .

O : I D B (IDB),

B (B), E K F A E D (KFAED) :

() G L D P (GALDEP); () A E L P

(AELP); () I R D P (IRRIDEP) . F,

LHDP PIAMP IDB G

E F (GEF) . O :

A M NERICA (N R A)

; IG

. E 0.5 E P

.

F G;

. ,

G E . A 2.6.1 ,

.

G G (GOG), B ROC, EC/E, E, I, , , K, K

A, B H C,

M C, N (NDP, FAO ,),

P C P,

NGO.

Table 5. Projects in the Agricultural Sector in The Gambia

Projects

Financing

Sources Duration

Total Cost

(USD)

DonorContribution

(USD)

GovernmentContribution

(USD)

Irrigated RiceDevelopment Project

GOTG /KFAED 2002-2007 3,592,831 3,347,500 245,331

Participatory IntegratedWatershed ManagementProject (PIWAMP)

GOTG /IFAD / AfDB

2008-2012 17,500,000 14,200,000 3,300,000

Livestock andHorticultureDevelopment Project

GOTG /IFAD / AfDB

2009-2013 15,900,000 14,000,000 1,900,000


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Farmer Managed RiceIrrigation Project

GOTG /AfDB 2006-2011 9,500,000 9,000,000 500,000

Multinational NERICARice DisseminationProject

GOTG /AfDB

2004-2011 2,278,571 2,178,571 100,000

Gambia LowlandDevelopment Project GOTG / IDB

2008-2013 12,710,000 11,000,000 1,710,000

Participatory IntegratedManagement of InvasiveAquatic Weeds Project(PIMIAWP)

GOTG /AfDB

2005-2010 592,226 375,674 216,552Rural Finance Project GOTG /

IFAD 2008-2014 8,725,072 6,500,000 2,225,072Project for SustainableManagement ofEndemic RuminantLivestock

GOTG / GEF/ AfDB

2009-2013 4,100,000 3,890,553 209,447

Gambia EmergencyAgricultural ProductionProject

GOTG / EU /WB

2010-2011 6,873,000 6,773,000 100,000

NERICA Rice ProjectGOTG /

AfDB 200-2009 2,678,571 2,378,571 300,000

Food Security throughCommercialization ofAgriculture Project

GOTG / FAO/ ITA

2010-2013

2,094,000 1,979,272 114,728

International NGOs

Action AidInternational 2008-2012

10,000,000 8,000,000 N/AConcernUniversal

2010-20123,978,020 3,978,020 N/A

: GNAIP MOFEA, 2011


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Table 6. Historical Data 2000-2005 Cumulative Discounted (12%) IF, FF, and O&M Estimates, By InvesEntity, and Funding Source

Category ofInvestmentEntity

Source of I&FF Funds

Cumulative Discounted IF, FF, & O&M Estimates For Adaptation Scenario

Water management(irrigation etc)

Production ofimproved seeds

Improved AgroMeteorological

information systemand timing of crop

calendars

Improved soiquality

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O

HouseholdsDomestic Equity and debt 1.28 0.04 0.01 0.34 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00

Total Household Funds (alldomestic)

1.28 0.04 0.01 0.34 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00

Corporations

Domestic

Domestic equity(including internalcash flow)

1.25 0.13 0.03 0.34 1.71 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.23 0.13

Domesticborrowing (bondsand loans)

1.24 1.13 0.15 0.45 1.60 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.29 1.03

Total DomesticSources

2.49 1.26 0.18 0.79 3.31 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.52 1.16

Foreign

Foreign directinvestment (FDI)

1.28 0.71 0.17 0.41 1.83 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 1.15

Foreign borrowing(loans)

0.81 0.66 0.16 0.42 1.74 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.48 1.08

Foreign aid (ODA) 0.82 0.75 0.18 0.44 0.74 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.55 1.23

Total ForeignSources

2.91 2.12 0.51 1.27 4.31 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.47 3.46

Total Corporation Funds 5.40 3.38 0.69 2.06 7.62 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.99 4.62

Government

DomesticDomestic funds(budgetary)

1.30 2.35 1.08 0.44 2.21 0.55 0.01 0.00 0.00 2.62 1.14

Foreign

Foreign borrowing(loans)

1.34 0.79 0.18 0.46 1.83 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.64 1.17

Bilateral foreignaid (bilateral ODA)

1.30 1.13 0.20 0.47 0.44 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.71 1.36

Multilateral foreignaid (multilateralODA)

5.26 2.42 0.76 1.49 1.20 0.49 2.03 0.39 0.04 2.23 1.25

Total Foreign

Sources

7.90 6.69 2.22 2.57 5.68 1.60 0.04 0.39 0.04 10.19 4.92

Total Government Funds 9.20 10.13 2.94 4.97 13.45 3.35 0.05 0.40 0.04 22.31 8.55

Total 15.88 10.11 2.92 5.26 13.45 3.34 2.05 0.39 0.04 22.31 9.54 : I&FF C 2011


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2.2.4 Baseline Scenario

A 1.2.5; ,

, ..,

. (.., , , ), ,

,

.

E OECD 25 ,

. M

, ,

.

, G

, . R CO2

(LPG) M

H C (MHC), G ,

144,000 G LPG . MHC ,

, LPG G

. A, MHC 144,000 G,

11% G 1.33 . A MHC ,

MHC , , 8,000 LPG

G. B 55.5 LGP G,

144,000 G

LPG ; 782,070 CO2 30 .


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Table 7. Estimates of the Cumulative Amounts Discounted I&FF and O&M Costs from the Baseline Sce2005 US$)

Category ofInvestmentEntity Source of I&FF Funds

Improve AgricultureLand &Water

Management

Development ofAgriculture Chain &

Market Promotion

Sustainabl

Developme

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF F

Households

DomesticEquity and debt

4.35 0.77 0.12 7.02 1.65 0.80 7.02 0.

Total Household Funds (all domestic)4.35 0.77 0.12 7.02 1.65 0.80 7.02 0.

Corporations

Domestic

Domestic equity (includinginternal cash flow) 5.92 4.00 0.84 0.01 0.90 0.04 5.15 0

Domestic borrowing(bonds and loans) 10.82 8.06 0.86 2.98 0.96 0.04 6.66 0

Total Domestic Sources 16.74 12.06 1.70 2.99 1.85 0.08 11.81 0

Foreign

Foreign direct investment(FDI) 2.76 2.64 0.93 0.86 5.66 0.02 0.00 0

Foreign borrowing (loans) 1.57 1.15 0.43 0.42 1.33 0.01 0.00 0Foreign aid (ODA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Total Foreign Sources4.32 3.79 1.36 1.28 6.98 0.02 0.00 0

Total Corporation Funds 34.02 27.24 7.15 4.27 8.84 0.10 11.81 0

Government

DomesticDomestic funds(budgetary) 1.24 1.36 0.83 0.01 4.59 0.83 5.60 2

Foreign

Foreign borrowing (loans) 5.03 6.66 0.84 0.47 2.86 0.84 4.69 6

Bilateral foreign aid(bilateral ODA) 2.10 6.70 0.84 0.42 2.47 0.84 2.87 6

Multilateral foreign aid(multilateral DA) 4.65 7.97 0.84 0.55 3.24 0.84 4.65 7

Total Foreign Sources 11.78 21.34 2.53 1.43 8.57 2.53 12.21 20

Total Government Funds 13.02 22.70 3.36 1.44 13.16 3.36 17.82 22

Total 51.39 50.70 10.63 12.73 23.65 4.26 36.65 24

Source: GNAIP 2010 and I&FF Calculations 2011


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Table 8. Annual IF, FF, & O&M Estimates for Baseline Scenario discounted at 12% per annum (million

Year Investment Type 1Improvement ofAgriculture Land&Water Management

Investment Type 2Development ofAgriculture Chain &Market Promotion

Investment Type 3Sustainable FarmDevelopment

Investment Type 4Development ofLivestock SpeciesResistant to Weatherconditions

A

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M

2010 3.53 3.23 0.72 10.53 1.7 0.34 2.94 1.69 0.36 6.83 3.97 1.63

2011 3.93 2.84 0.77 9.71 1.57 0.32 2.71 1.56 0.33 6.29 3.65 1.50

2012 3.83 2.50 0.74 8.94 1.44 0.29 2.49 1.43 0.31 5.79 3.36 1.39

2013 3.69 2.22 0.70 8.21 1.32 0.27 2.29 1.32 0.29 5.32 3.09 1.27

2014 3.53 1.97 0.67 7.53 1.22 0.24 2.10 1.21 0.26 4.88 2.83 1.17

2015 3.36 1.75 0.63 6.89 1.11 0.22 1.92 1.10 0.24 4.46 2.59 1.07

2016 3.17 1.56 0.59 6.30 1.02 0.20 1.76 1.01 0.22 4.08 2.37 0.98

2017 2.98 1.39 0.55 5.75 0.93 0.18 1.60 0.92 0.20 3.72 2.16 0.89

2018 2.79 1.23 0.51 5.24 0.85 0.17 1.46 0.84 0.18 3.39 1.97 0.81

2019 2.61 1.09 0.50 4.77 0.77 0.16 1.33 0.76 0.16 3.09 1.79 0.74

2020 2.43 0.97 0.46 4.33 0.70 0.14 1.21 0.69 0.15 2.81 1.63 0.67

2021 2.25 0.86 0.42 3.94 0.63 0.13 1.10 0.63 0.13 2.55 1.48 0.61

2022 2.08 0.76 0.39 3.57 0.58 0.11 1.00 0.57 0.12 2.31 1.34 0.55

2023 1.92 0.68 0.36 3.24 0.52 0.10 0.90 0.52 0.11 2.10 1.22 0.50

2024 1.77 0.60 0.33 2.93 0.47 0.10 0.82 0.47 0.10 1.90 1.10 0.45

2025 1.63 0.53 0.30 2.66 0.43 0.09 0.74 0.42 0.09 1.72 1.00 0.41

2026 1.49 0.47 0.27 2.40 0.39 0.08 0.67 0.38 0.08 1.56 0.90 0.37

2027 1.37 0.42 0.25 2.17 0.35 0.07 0.61 0.35 0.08 1.41 0.82 0.34

2028 1.25 0.37 0.23 1.96 0.32 0.06 0.55 0.31 0.07 1.27 0.74 0.30

2029 1.14 0.33 0.21 1.77 0.29 0.06 0.49 0.28 0.06 1.15 0.67 0.27

2030 1.04 0.29 0.19 1.60 0.26 0.05 0.44 0.26 0.06 1.03 0.60 0.25

Total 51.78 26.08 9.80 104.43 16.85 3.37 29.13 16.72 3.60 67.66 39.28 16.19

: I&FF C 2011


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2.2.5 Adaptation Scenario

The adaptation scenario will mainly depend on the following salient areas (quoted from GNAIP):

1.

I ,

25,000 . : ()

; () ; ()

.

2.

D A C M P

,

( , ,

, ). P : () D

A M C ( , , ,

, , ); ()

N O ; () D D, I

E M.

3.

F D

,

. P :

() F M; () L L ;

() C B F O.

4.

D L R C

( , ).

. I ,

.


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33

Table 9. Estimates of the Annual Discounted I&FF and O&M Costs from the Adaptation Scenario from 2010-2030

Category ofInvestmentEntity Source of I&FF Funds

Improve AgricultureLand &WaterManagement

Development ofAgriculture Chain &Market Promotion

Sustainable FarmDevelopment

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&

Households

DomesticEquity and debt

6.77 1.20 0.14 12.05 2.83 1.37 12.04 1.60 1.

Total Household Funds (all domestic)6.77 1.20 0.14 12.05 2.83 1.37 12.04 1.60 1.3

Corporations

Domestic

Domestic equity(including internal cashflow) 6.77 0.60 0.07 6.02 1.42 0.68 6.02 0.80 0.6

Domestic borrowing(bonds and loans) 12.25 9.46 0.51 5.10 0.88 0.03 7.01 0.40 0.0

Total Domestic Sources 19.03 10.06 0.58 11.12 2.30 0.72 13.03 1.20 0.6

Foreign

Foreign directinvestment (FDI) 4.31 4.37 2.88 0.33 7.72 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.0

Foreign borrowing(loans) 5.77 2.95 0.83 0.33 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.0

Foreign aid (ODA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0

Total Foreign Sources10.08 7.31 3.71 0.65 7.72 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.0

Total Corporation Funds 29.11 17.37 4.29 11.77 10.02 0.73 13.03 1.20 0.6

Government

DomesticDomestic funds(budgetary) 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 6.40 0.72 9.60 3.61 1.4

Foreign

Foreign borrowing(loans) 0.00 9.34 0.50 0.80 0.96 0.72 3.23 9.59 0.7

Bilateral foreign aid(bilateral ODA) 0.00 5.25 0.50 0.31 1.78 0.72 0.90 5.21 0.7

Multilateral foreign aid(multilateral DA) 5.61 7.21 0.50 0.57 2.11 0.72 5.51 6.85 0.7

Total Foreign Sources 5.61 21.80 1.49 1.69 4.86 2.17 9.65 21.64 2.

Total Government Funds 19.61 21.80 1.49 2.03 11.26 2.89 19.25 25.25 3.5

Total 55.50 40.37 5.92 25.85 24.12 4.98 44.32 28.05 5.6

Source: I&FF Calculations 2011


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Table 10. Estimates of the Annual Discounted I&FF and O&M Costs from the Adaptation Scenario from 2010-2030




Investment Type 4Development ofLivestock SpeciesResistant to Weatherconditions

All Investment T

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF F

2010 3.7 3.38 0.76 11.03 1.78 0.36 3.08 1.77 0.38 7.15 4.15 1.71 24.96 1

2011 4.76 2.84 0.91 10.16 1.64 0.33 2.83 1.63 0.35 6.58 3.82 1.58 24.34

2012 4.19 2.50 0.80 9.33 1.50 0.30 2.60 1.49 0.33 6.04 3.51 1.45 22.16

2013 4.01 2.24 0.73 8.56 1.38 0.27 2.39 1.37 0.29 5.54 3.22 1.33 20.49

2014 3.81 1.99 0.69 7.83 1.27 0.25 2.18 1.25 0.27 5.07 2.94 1.21 18.90

2015 3.60 1.77 0.71 7.16 1.16 0.23 1.99 1.15 0.25 4.63 2.69 1.11 17.39

2016 3.39 1.57 0.63 6.53 1.05 0.21 1.82 1.04 0.22 4.23 2.46 1.01 15.97

2017 3.18 1.40 0.56 5.95 0.96 0.19 1.66 0.95 0.20 3.85 2.24 0.92 14.64

2018 2.96 1.24 0.53 5.42 0.87 0.18 1.51 0.87 0.19 3.51 2.04 0.84 13.40

2019 2.76 1.10 0.55 4.92 0.79 0.16 1.37 0.79 0.17 3.19 1.85 0.76 12.24

2020 2.56 0.98 0.48 4.47 0.72 0.14 1.25 0.72 0.15 2.90 1.68 0.69 11.17

2021 2.37 0.87 0.43 4.06 0.65 0.13 1.13 0.65 0.14 2.63 1.53 0.63 10.19 2022 2.18 0.77 0.40 3.68 0.59 0.12 1.03 0.59 0.13 2.39 1.38 0.57 9.28

2023 2.01 0.68 0.39 3.33 0.54 0.11 0.93 0.53 0.12 2.16 1.25 0.52 8.44

2024 1.85 0.61 0.34 3.02 0.49 0.10 0.84 0.48 0.10 1.96 1.14 0.47 7.66

2025 1.70 0.54 0.31 2.73 0.44 0.09 0.76 0.44 0.09 1.77 1.03 0.42 6.95

2026 1.55 0.48 0.28 2.47 0.40 0.08 0.69 0.39 0.09 1.60 0.93 0.38 6.31

2027 1.42 0.42 0.27 2.23 0.36 0.07 0.62 0.36 0.08 1.44 0.84 0.34 5.71

2028 1.30 0.38 0.24 2.01 0.32 0.07 0.56 0.32 0.07 1.30 0.76 0.31 5.17

2029 1.18 0.33 0.21 1.81 0.29 0.06 0.51 0.29 0.06 1.17 0.68 0.28 4.68

2030 1.08 0.30 0.19 1.64 0.26 0.05 0.46 0.26 0.06 1.06 0.62 0.25 4.23

AllYears 55.56 26.39 10.40 108.34 17.48 3.49 30.21 17.34 3.74 70.18 40.74 16.79 264.29 10

Source: I&FF Calculations 2011


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3. Results

3.1 Incremental Changes in IF, FF and O&M Costs, and Subsidy Costs

Table 11.Incremental Cumulative Discounted I&FF Estimates, By Investment Type, Investment Entity,

2010-2030 (million 2005 US$)

Category ofInvestment

Entity Source of I&FF Funds

Improve AgricultureLand &WaterManagement

Development ofAgriculture Chain &Market Promotion

SustainaDevelo

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF

Households

Domestic Equity and debt 2.42 0.43 0.02 5.02 1.18 0.57 5.02 0.6

Total Household Funds (all domestic) 2.42 0.43 0.02 5.02 1.18 0.57 5.02 0.6

Corporations

Domestic

Domestic equity (including internalcash flow) 0.85 -3.40 -0.77 6.01 0.52 0.65 0.87 0.3

Domestic borrowing (bonds andloans) 1.44 1.40 -0.35 2.12 -0.08 -0.01 0.35 -0.0

Total Domestic Sources 2.29 -2.00 -1.12 8.13 0.44 0.64 1.22 0.2

Foreign

Foreign direct investment (FDI) 1.56 1.73 1.95 -0.53 2.07 -0.01 0.00 0.0Foreign borrowing (loans) 4.20 1.79 0.40 -0.09 -1.33 0.00 0.00 0.0

Foreign aid (ODA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0

Total Foreign Sources 5.76 3.52 2.35 -0.62 0.74 -0.01 0.00 0.0

Total Corporation Funds -4.91 -9.86 -2.86 7.51 1.19 0.63 1.22 0.2

Government

Domestic Domestic funds (budgetary) 12.77 -1.36 -0.83 0.34 1.81 -0.11 4.00 1.5

Foreign

Foreign borrowing (loans) -5.03 2.67 -0.35 0.33 -1.90 -0.12 -1.46 2.9

Bilateral foreign aid (bilateral ODA) -2.10 -1.45 -0.35 -0.11 -0.68 -0.12 -1.96 -1.1

Multilateral foreign aid (multilateralDA) 0.96 -0.76 -0.35 0.03 -1.13 -0.12 0.86 -0.3

Total Foreign Sources -6.17 0.46 -1.04 0.25 -3.71 -0.36 -2.56 1.4

Total Government Funds 6.59 -0.90 -1.88 0.59 -1.90 -0.47 1.43 2.9Total 4.11 -10.33 -4.72 13.12 0.46 0.73 7.67 3.9

: I&FF C 2011

N: N .


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Table 12. Incremental Annual Discounted IF & FF Estimates by Investment Type from 2010-2030




Investment Type 4Development ofLivestock SpeciesResistant to Weather

conditions

A

IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M IF FF O&M

2010 0.17 0.15 0.04 0.50 0.08 0.02 0.14 0.08 0.02 0.32 0.18 0.08

2011 0.83 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.07 0.01 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.29 0.17 0.07

2012 0.36 0.00 0.05 0.39 0.06 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.02 0.25 0.15 0.06

2013 0.32 0.02 0.03 0.35 0.06 0.01 0.10 0.05 0.01 0.22 0.13 0.05

2014 0.29 0.02 0.02 0.30 0.05 0.01 0.08 0.05 0.01 0.20 0.11 0.04

2015 0.25 0.02 0.08 0.26 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.10 0.04

2016 0.22 0.02 0.04 0.23 0.04 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.15 0.09 0.04

2017 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.08 0.03

2018

0.17 0.01 0.01 0.18 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.12 0.06 0.03 2019 0.15 0.01 0.05 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.10 0.06 0.03

2020 0.13 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.02

2021 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.05 0.02

2022 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02

2023 0.09 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.01

2024 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.01

2025 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01

2026 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01

2027 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01

2028 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 2029 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01

2030 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.01

Total 3.77 0.31 0.60 3.91 0.63 0.13 1.09 0.62 0.13 2.52 1.46 0.61 1

: I&FF C 2011


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I&FF 2010 2030 $15.78

. I

,

$10.33 $4.72 ,

,

$3.44 $0.08

. B I&FF ,

:

I : $10.94 (!),

, .

D : 14.31 ,

.

: $ 12.60 ,

, .

D : $0.19

(!), ,

.

L

, &

.

L :

, : A

,

I&FF O&M . I , I&FF

O&M:

I : $1.32

D : $1.14

: $0.46

D : $1.11 .

I&FF

. I

2030

,

.

2030

. I


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38

;

2000 2030

.

.

,

. H, ,

, , G

.

,

,

.

A / ,

. C

,

I FF 2030.

B , D A

C M P .

2030.

3.2 Policy Implication

G I&FF , :

A

,

. R

. O ,

. ,

, $1

,

, , .

F , A N R P (ANR)

. ANR P

GANIP. GNAIP

.


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39

:

I A L M

D A C M P

F D

D L R C

A

Q

E

R .

B I&FF G

,

G N A I P (GNAIP).

C, .

H , E

D C N A

. ,

M

F E (E H F I&FF ),

.

G ,

, /

. CC

/ , ,

. C O (CO)

.

3.3 Key Uncertainties and Limitations of the Methodology

, ,

. I,

GB, MOFEA, C B G, DOP, ,

.

, , ,

, .


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A

I&FF . G ,

. ,

NGO, O

. A GNAIP

.


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41

References

C C, A & M P, G, 20072011.

F N C R G N F

C C C, 2003.

G B , (GBO) 2009.

G N A I P 20112015, 2010.

N I R K A (A) G, F. F,

J 2009.

PH A 2010/2011 C , F N O,

EP P C F B .

NDP M G A I F F

A C C: 1.0, 23 M 2009.

NDP R G A I F F A

C C: 1.0, 1 J 2009.


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G N, G F, G

N F NDP.

final iff agriculture gambia

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