final of afm
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Final of AFMTRANSCRIPT
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CH - 1.Nature and Introduction of Investment Decision.
An efficient allocation of capital is the most important finance function
in the modern items. It involves decisions to commit the firm’s funds to
the long term assets. Capital budgeting or investment decisions are of
considerable importance to the firm since they tend to determine its
value by influencing its growth, profitability and risk.
The investment decisions of a firm are generally known as the capital
budgeting, or capital expenditure decisions. A capital budgeting decision
may be define as the firm’s decisions to invest its current funds most
efficiently in the long term assets in anticipation of an expected flow of
benefits over a series of years.
The long term assets are those that affect the firm’s operations beyond
the one year period. The firm’s investment decisions would generally
include expansion, acquisition, modernization and replacement of the
long term asset. Sale of division or business is also as an investment
decision. Decisions like the change in the methods of sales distribution,
or an advertisement campaign or a research and development
programmed have long term implications for the firm’s expenditures and
benefits, and therefore, they should also be evaluated as investment
decisions.
It is important to note that investment in the long term assets invariably
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requires large funds to be tied up in the current assets such as inventories
and receivables. As such, investment in fixed and current assets is one
single activity.
The following are the features of investment decisions,
The exchange of current funds for future benefits.
The funds are invested in long term assets.
The future benefits will occur to the firm over a series of years.
CH - 2. Capital Budgeting Process.
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Capital budgeting is the process that companies use for decision making
on capital project. The capital project lasts for longer time, usually more
than one year. As the project is usually large and has important impact
on the long term success of the business, it is crucial for the business to
make the right decision.
Capital Budgeting Process
The specific capital budgeting procedures that the manager uses depend
on the manger's level in the organization and the complexities of the
organization and the size of the projects. The typical steps in the capital
budgeting process are as follows:
Brainstorming. Investment ideas can come from anywhere, from
the top or the bottom of the organization, from any department or
functional area, or from outside the company. Generating good
investment ideas to consider is the most important step in the process
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Project analysis. This step involves gathering the information to
forecast cash flows for each project and then evaluating the project's
profitability.
Capital budget planning. The company must organize the
profitable proposals into a coordinated whole that fits within the
company's overall strategies, and it also must consider the projects'
timing. Some projects that look good when considered in isolation
may be undesirable strategically. Because of financial and real
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resource issues, the scheduling and prioritizing of projects is
important.
Performance monitoring. In a post-audit, actual results are
compared to planned or predicted results, and any differences must
be explained. For example, how do the revenues, expenses, and cash
flows realized from an investment compare to the predictions? Post-
auditing capital projects is important for several reasons. First, it
helps monitor the forecasts and analysis that underlie the capital
budgeting process. Systematic errors, such as overly optimistic
forecasts, become apparent. Second, it helps improve business
operations. If sales or costs are out of line, it will focus attention on
bringing performance closer to expectations if at all possible. Finally,
monitoring and post-auditing recent capital investments will produce
concrete ideas for future investments. Managers can decide to invest
more heavily in profitable areas and scale down or cancel
investments in areas that are disappointing.
Complexity of Capital budgeting Process
The budgeting process needs the involvement of different departments
in the business. Planning for capital investments can be very complex,
often involving many persons inside and outside of the company.
Information about marketing, science, engineering, regulation, taxation,
finance, production, and behavioral issues must be systematically
gathered and evaluated.
The authority to make capital decisions depends on the size and
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complexity of the project. Lower-level managers may have discretion to
make decisions that involve less than a given amount of money, or that
do not exceed a given capital budget. Larger and more complex
decisions are reserved for top management, and some are so significant
that the company's board of directors ultimately has the decision-making
authority. Like everything else, capital budgeting is a cost-benefit
exercise. At the margin, the benefits from the improved decision making
should exceed the costs of the capital budgeting effort.
CH - 3. Capital Investment Decisions.
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The capital investment decisions can also be termed as capital
budgeting in finance. The purpose of the capital investment decisions
includes allocation of the firm' s capital funds most effectively in order
to ensure the best return possible.
Evaluating the projects and allocating capital depending on the
requirements of the projects are the most important aspects of capital
investment decisions.
There may be various criteria for selecting the right and appropriate
decision for capital investment. For example, a firm may emphasize on
the projects that promise for the immediate return while some other
firms may insist on the projects that ensure long term growth. The major
goal of capital investment decision is to increase the value of firm by
undertaking right project at right time.
The capital investment decisions are mainly governed by the process
of ranking and identifying the capital investments of the firm. The firm
needs to decide which of the given investments will ensure the most
value to the business.
The decisions of capital investment often suffer from a number of
constraints. The amount of capital that a firm collects is limited and it
brings down the constraint on the choice of the firm over various project
investments. As the debt of the firm is increased, the debt-equity ratio of
the firm also gets increased and hence it becomes difficult for the
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business to raise more debts.
The decision of project ranking plays significant role in the decisions of
capital investment. Depending on the various projects the firm is having
at a certain period of time, the firms prioritize the projects. The ranking
of projects depends on how much a project will return and which project
will be able to add maximum value to the business.
There are various measures that give the estimation of the return of the
firm over various investment projects. In order to determine the value of
a particular project, three most famous methods are - IRR methods, net
present value and payback method. These methods are applied while
taking decisions on capital investment.
CH - 4. Corporate Finance - Cash Flow and NPV
Applications.
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Accounting Profits
Accounting profits are cash flows that include non-cash
inflows/outflows such as depreciation.
Cash Flows
Cash flows are a firm's actual cash inflows/outflows and are important
in capital budgeting.
Example: Net Cash Flows
Assume Newco has $10,000 in annual depreciation and $20,000 in
accounting net income. Because the $10,000 in annual depreciation is
not an actual cash outflow, the $20,000 in accounting net income is not
the true cash flow to the firm.
If, while all else is constant, annual depreciation were to decline by
$5,000 to $5,000, accounting net income would increase to $25,000, but
actual cash flow would remain unchanged. However, calculations of net
cash flow exclude the effects of depreciation.
Formula :-
For purposes of capital budgeting,
Net Cash Flow = Net Income + Depreciation
Answer: Therefore, net cash flow would be equal to $30,000 ($20,000
net income +$10,000 depreciation) before the changes in depreciation
and $30,000 ($25,000 net income + $5,000 depreciation) after the
changes in depreciation.
Incremental Cash Flow and Capital Budgeting
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Once a company makes a decision to accept a project, an incremental
cash flow is then the cash flow that is added to the firm's existing cash
flow as a result of accepting a new project.
However, in determining incremental cash flows from a new project,
problems arise, such as:
1. Sunk Costs
These are the initial outlays required to analyze a project that cannot be
recovered even if a project is accepted. As such, these costs will not
affect the future cash flows of the project and should not be considered
when making capital-budgeting decisions.
Suppose Newco is considering whether to make an addition to its
current plant to increase production. To determine if the new addition is
worthwhile, Newco hired a consulting firm for $50,000 to analyze the
addition and the effect it will have on production. The $50,000 is
considered a sunk cost. If the project is rejected, the $50,000 will still be
paid, and if the project is accepted, the $50,000 will not affect the future
cash flows of the addition.
2. Opportunity Cost
This is the cost of not going forward with a project or the cash outflows
that will not be earned as a result of utilizing an asset for another
alternative. For example, the opportunity cost of Newco's new addition
considered above is the cost of the land on which Newco is considering
putting the new plant addition. As such, it should be included in the
analysis of the project.
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3. Externality
Additionally, in the consideration of incremental cash flows of a new
project, there may be effects on the existing operations of the company
to consider, known as "externalities". For example, the addition to
Newco's plant is for the purpose of producing a new product. It must be
considered if the new product may actually take away or add to sales of
the existing product.
4. Cannibalization
This is the type of externality where the new project takes sales away
from the existing product.
Changes in Net Working Capital
A change in net working capital is essentially the changes in current
assets minus changes in current liabilities. Within the capital-budgeting
process, a project typically adds to current assets given additional
inventories or potential increases in accounts receivables from new
sales. The increases to current assets, however, are offset by current
liabilities needed to finance the new project.
Overall, there may be change to net working capital from the new
project.
If the change in net working capital is positive, the change to
current assets outweighs the change in the current liabilities.
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If, however, the change in net working capital is negative, the
change to current liabilities outweighs the change in current assets.
CH - 5. Basic principle of measuring project cash flows.
Estimating cash flows – the investment outlays and the cash inflows
after the project is commissioned – is the most important, but also the
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most difficult step in capital budgeting. Estimating cash flows process
involves many people and numerous variables.
A project which involves cash outflows followed by cash inflows
comprises of three basic components. They are,
Initial investment: Initial investment is the after-tax cash outlay
on capital expenditure and net working capital when the project is set
up.
Operating cash inflows: The operating cash inflows are the after-
tax cash inflows resulting from the operations of the project during
its economic life.
Terminal cash inflow: The terminal cash inflow is the after-tax
cash flow resulting from the liquidation of the project at the end of
its economic life.
For developing the stream of financial costs and benefits, the following
principles must be kept in mind:
1. Principle of Incremental Cash Flows
The cash flows of a project must be measured in incremental terms. To
ascertain a project’s incremental cash flows, one has to look at what
happens to the cash flows of the firm with the project and without the
project. The difference between the two reflects the incremental cash
flows attributable to the project.
That is;
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Project Cash Flow for year t = Cash flow for the firm with the project
for year t – Cash flow for the firm without the project for year t
In estimating the incremental cash flows of a project, the following
guidelines must be borne in mind:
Consider all incidental effects
Ignore sunk costs
Include opportunity costs
Question the allocation of overhead costs
2. Principle of Long Term Funds
A project may be evaluated from various points of view: total funds
point of view, long term funds point of view, and equity point of view.
The measurement of cash flows as well as the determination of the
discount rate for evaluating the cash flows depends on the point of view
adopted. It is generally recommended that a project may be evaluated
from the point of view of long-term funds (which are provided by equity
stockholders, preference stock-holders, debenture holders, and term-
lending institutions) because the principal focus of such evaluation is
normally on the profitability of long-term funds. This argument, though
plausible, cannot be regarded as unassailable. Nonetheless, we
subscribed to the position that it is quite reasonable to view a project
from the long-term funds point of view. Hence for determining the costs
and benefits of an investment project we will raise the questions. What
is the sacrifice made by the suppliers of long term funds? What benefits
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accrue to the suppliers of long-term funds? The sacrifice made by the
suppliers of long-term funds is equal to the outlays on fixed assets and
net working capital (it may be recalled that net working capital, which
represents the difference between current assets and current liabilities, is
supported by long-term funds). The benefits accruing to the suppliers of
long-term funds consist of operational cash inflows after taxes and
salvage value of fixed assets and net working capital.
3. Principle of Financing Costs Exclusion
When cash flows relating to long-term are being defined, financing costs
of long-term funds [interest on long-term debt and equity dividend]
should be excluded from the analysis. Why? The weighted average cost
of capital used for evaluating the cash flows takes into account the cost
of long-term funds. Put differently the interest and dividend payments
are reflected in the weighted average cost of capital. Hence, if interest
on long term debt and dividend on equity capital are deducted in
defining the cash flows, the cost of long-term funds will be counted
twice – an error that should be carefully guarded against.
Operationally, the exclusion of financing costs principle means that
The interest on long-term debt [referred to hereafter as just
interest for the sake of simplicity] is ignored while computing profits
and taxes thereon and
The expected dividends are deemed irrelevant in cash flow
analysis.
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While dividends pose no difficulty as they come only from profit after
taxes, interest needs to be handled properly. Since interest is usually
deducted in the process of arriving at profit after tax, an amount equal to
interest [1 -tax rate] should be added back to the figure of profit after
tax. Thus, whether the tax rate is applied directly to the profit before
interest and tax figure or whether the tax adjusted interest, which is
simply interest [1-tax rate], is added to profit after tax, we get the same
result.
4. Principle of Post-tax
Tax payments like other payments must be properly deducted in
deriving the cash flows. Put differently cash flows must be defined in
post-tax terms [It may be noted that the cost of capital employed for
evaluating the cash flow stream is also measured in post-tax terms].
Capital budgeting is the process most companies use to authorize capital
spending on long‐term projects and on other projects requiring
significant investments of capital. Because capital is usually limited in
its availability, capital projects are individually evaluated using both
quantitative analysis and qualitative information. Most capital budgeting
analysis uses cash inflows and cash outflows rather than net income
calculated using the accrual basis. Some companies simplify the cash
flow calculation to net income plus depreciation and amortization.
Others look more specifically at estimated cash inflows from customers,
reduced costs, proceeds from the sale of assets and salvage value, and
cash outflows for the capital investment, operating costs, interest, and
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future repairs or overhauls of equipment.
The Cottage Gang is considering the purchase of $150,000 of equipment
for its boat rentals. The equipment is expected to last seven years and
have a $5,000 salvage value at the end of its life. The annual cash
inflows are expected to be $250,000 and the annual cash outflows are
estimated to be $200,000.
CH - 6. Profitability Technique For Measurement Of Cash
Flow.
Payback technique
The payback measures the length of time it takes a company to recover
in cash its initial investment. This concept can also be explained as the
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length of time it takes the project to generate cash equal to the
investment and pay the company back. It is calculated by dividing the
capital investment by the net annual cash flow. If the net annual cash
flow is not expected to be the same, the average of the net annual cash
flows may be used.
Cash Pay-back Period = Capital Investment
Average Annual net cash flow
For the Cottage Gang, the cash payback period is three years. It was
calculated by dividing the $150,000 capital investment by the $50,000
net annual cash flow ($250,000 inflows ‐ $200,000 outflows)
$ 1,50,000
$ 50,000
= 3.0 Years.
The shorter the payback period, the sooner the company recovers its
cash investment. Whether a cash payback period is good or poor
depends on the company's criteria for evaluating projects. Some
companies have specific guidelines for number of years, such as two
years, while others simply require the payback period to be less than the
asset's useful life.
When net annual cash flows are different, the cumulative net annual
cash flows are used to determine the payback period. If the Turtles Co.
has a project with a cost of $150,000, and net annual cash inflows for
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the first seven years of the project are: $30,000 in year one, $50,000 in
year two, $55,000 in year three, $60,000 in year four, $60,000 in year
five, $60,000 in year six, and $40,000 in year seven, then its cash
payback period would be 3.25 years. See the example that follows.
The cash payback period is easy to calculate but is actually not the only
criteria for choosing capital projects. This method ignores differences in
the timing of cash flows during the project and differences in the length
of the project. The cash flows of two projects may be the same in total
but the timing of the cash flows could be very different. For example,
assume project LJM had cash flows of $3,000, $4,000, $7,000, $1,500,
and $1,500 and project MEM had cash flows of $6,000, $5,000, $3,000,
$2,000, and $1,000. Both projects cost $14,000 and have a payback of
3.0 years, but the cash flows are very different. Similarly, two projects
may have the same payback period while one project lasts five years
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beyond the payback period and the second one lasts only one year.
Net present value
Considering the time value of money is important when evaluating
projects with different costs, different cash flows, and different service
lives. Discounted cash flow techniques, such as the net present value
method, consider the timing and amount of cash flows. To use the net
present value method, you will need to know the cash inflows, the cash
outflows, and the company's required rate of return on its investments.
The required rate of return becomes the discount rate used in the net
present value calculation. For the following examples, it is assumed that
cash flows are received at the end of the period.
Using data for the Cottage Gang and assuming a required rate of return
of 12%, the net present value is $80,452. It is calculated by discounting
the annual net cash flows and salvage value using the 12% discount
factors. The Cottage Gang has equal net cash flows of $50,000
($250,000 cash receipt minus $200,000 operating costs) so the present
value of the net cash flows is computed by using the present value of an
annuity of 1 for seven periods. Using a 12% discount rate, the factor is
4.5638 and the present value of the net cash flows is $228,190. The
salvage value is received only once, at the end of the seven years (the
asset's life), so its present value of $2,262 is computed using the Present
Value of 1 table factor for seven periods and 12% discount rate factor
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of .4523 times the $5,000 salvage value. The investment of $150,000
does not need to be discounted because it is already in today's dollars (a
factor value of 1.0000). To calculate the net present value (NPV), the
investment is subtracted from the present value of the total cash inflows
of $230,452. See the examples that follow. Because the net present value
(NPV) is positive, the required rate of return has been met.
DEFINITION of 'Discounted Cash Flow - DCF'
A valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment
opportunity. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash
flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted
average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is used to
evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through
DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the
opportunity may be a good one.
Calculated as:
Also known as the Discounted Cash Flows Model.
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'Discounted Cash Flow - DCF'
There are many variations when it comes to what you can use for your
cash flows and discount rate in a DCF analysis. Despite the complexity
of the calculations involved, the purpose of DCF analysis is just to
estimate the money you'd receive from an investment and to adjust for
the time value of money.
Discounted cash flow models are powerful, but they do have
shortcomings. DCF is merely a mechanical valuation tool, which makes
it subject to the axiom "garbage in, garbage out". Small changes in
inputs can result in large changes in the value of a company. Instead of
trying to project the cash flows to infinity, terminal value techniques are
often used. A simple annuity is used to estimate the terminal value past
10 years, for example. This is done because it is harder to come to a
realistic estimate of the cash flows as time goes on.
[1]. Net Present Value.
Net present value method (also known as discounted cash flow
method) is a popular capital budgeting technique that takes into account
the time value of money. It uses net present value of the investment
project as the base to accept or reject a proposed investment in projects
like purchase of new equipment, purchase of inventory, expansion or
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addition of existing plant assets and the installation of new plants etc.
First, I would explain what is net present value and then how it is used
to analyze investment projects.
Net present value (NPV): Net present value is the difference between
the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows
that occur as a result of undertaking an investment project. It may be
positive, zero or negative. These three possibilities of net present value
are briefly explained below:
Positive NPV: If present value of cash inflows is greater than the
present value of the cash outflows, the net present value is said to be
positive and the investment proposal is considered to be acceptable.
Zero NPV: If present value of cash inflow is equal to present value of
cash outflow, the net present value is said to be zero and the investment
proposal is considered to be acceptable.
Negative NPV: If present value of cash inflow is less than present value
of cash outflow, the net present value is said to be negative and the
investment proposal is rejected.
Example 1 – cash inflow project:
The management of Fine Electronics Company is considering to
purchase an equipment to be attached with the main manufacturing
machine. The equipment will cost $6,000 and will increase annual cash
inflow by $2,200. The useful life of the equipment is 6 years. After 6
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years it will have no salvage value. The management wants a 20% return
on all investments.
Required:
Compute net present value (NPV) of this investment project.
Should the equipment be purchased according to NPV analysis?
Solution:
(1)Computation of net present value:
*Value from present value of an annuity of $1 in arrears table.
(2) Purchase decision:
Yes, the equipment should be purchased because the net present value is
positive ($1,317). Having a positive net present value means the project
promises a rate of return that is higher than the minimum rate of return
required by management (20% in the above example).
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In the above example, the minimum required rate of return is 20%. It
means if the equipment is not purchased and the money is invested
elsewhere, the company would be able to earn 20% return on its
investment. The minimum required rate of return (20% in our example)
is used to discount the cash inflow to its present value and is, therefore,
also known as discount rate.
Investments in assets are usually made with the intention to generate
revenue or reduce costs in future. The reduction in cost is considered
equivalent to increase in revenues and should, therefore, be treated as
cash inflow in capital budgeting computations.
The net present value method is used not only to evaluate investment
projects that generate cash inflow but also to evaluate investment
projects that reduce costs. The following example illustrates how this
capital budgeting method is used to analyze a cost reduction project:
Example 2 – cost reduction project:
Smart Manufacturing Company is planning to reduce its labor costs by
automating a critical task that is currently performed manually. The
automation requires the installation of a new machine. The cost to
purchase and install a new machine is $15,000. The installation of
machine can reduce annual labor cost by $4,200. The life of the machine
is 15 years. The salvage value of the machine after fifteen years will be
zero. The required rate of return of Smart Manufacturing Company is
25%.
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Should Smart Manufacturing Company purchase the machine?
Solution:
According to net present value method, Smart Manufacturing Company
should purchase the machine because the present value of the cost
savings is greater than the present value of the initial cost to purchase
and install the machine. The computations are given below:
*Value from present value of an annuity of $1 in arrears table.
Net present value method – uneven cash flow:
Notice that the projects in the above examples generate equal cash
inflow in all the periods (the cost saving in example 2 has been treated
as cash inflow). Such a flow of cash is known as even cash flow. But
sometimes projects do not generate equal cash inflows in all the periods.
When projects generate different cash inflows in different periods, the
flow of cash is known as uneven cash flow. To analyze such projects
the present value of the inflow of cash is computed for each period
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separately. It has been illustrated in the following example:
Example 3:
A project requires an initial investment of $225,000 and is expected to
generate the following net cash inflows:
Year 1 2 3 4
Cash inflow $95,000 $80,000 $60,000 $55,000
Compute net present value of the project if the minimum desired rate of
return is 12%.
Solution:
The cash inflow generated by the project is uneven. Therefore, the
present value would be computed for each year separately:
Year
Present
value of $1
at 12%
Net cash
flowPresent value of cash flow
1 0.893* $ 95,000 $ 84,835
2 0.797 80,000 63,760
3 0.712 60,000 42,720
4 0.636 55,000 34,980
——–
Total $ 226,295
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Initial investment required 225,000
——–
Net present value $ 1,295
——–
*Value from present value of $1 table.
The project seems attractive because its net present value is positive.
Choosing among several alternative investment proposals:
Sometime a company may have limited funds but several alternative
proposals. In such circumstances, if each alternative requires the same
amount of investment, the one with the highest net present value is
preferred. But if each proposal requires a different amount of
investment, then proposals are ranked using an index called present
value index (or profitability index). The proposal with the highest
present value index is considered the best. Present value index is
computed using the following formula:
Formula of present value or profitability index:
Example 4:
Choose the most desirable investment proposal from the following
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alternatives using profitability index method:
Proposal X Proposal Y Proposal Z
Present value of net cash
flow$212,000 $171,800 $185,200
Amount required to invest 200,000 160,000 180,000
———– ———– ———–
Net present value 12,000 11,800 5,200
———– ———– ———–
Solution:
Because each investment proposal requires a different amount of
investment, the most desirable investment can be found using present
value index. Present value index of all three proposals is computed
below:
Present Value Index
Proposal X 1.06 (212,000/200,000)
Proposal Y 1.07 (171,800/160,000)
Proposal Z 1.03 (185,200/180,000)
Proposal X has the highest net present value but is not the most
desirable investment. The present value indexes show proposal Y as the
most desirable investment because it promises to generate 1.07 present
value for each dollar invested, which is the highest among three
alternatives.
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Assumptions:
The net present value method is based on two assumptions. These are:
The cash generated by a project is immediately reinvested to
generate a return at a rate that is equal to the discount rate used in
present value analysis.
The inflow and outflow of cash other than initial investment
occur at the end of each period.
Advantages and Disadvantages:
The basic advantage of net present value method is that it considers the
time value of money. The disadvantage is that it is more complex than
other methods that do not consider present value of cash flows.
Furthermore, it assumes immediate reinvestment of the cash generated
by investment projects. This assumption may not always be reasonable
due to changing economic conditions.
[2]. DEFINITION of 'Profitability Index'
An index that attempts to identify the relationship between the costs and
benefits of a proposed project through the use of a ratio calculated as:
'Profitability Index'
A ratio of 1.0 is logically the lowest acceptable measure on the index.
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Any value lower than 1.0 would indicate that the project's PV is less
than the initial investment. As values on the profitability index increase,
so does the financial attractiveness of the proposed project.
[3]. Definition of "Internal Rate Of Return - IRR"
The discount rate often used in capital budgeting that makes the net
present value of all cash flows from a particular project equal to zero.
Generally speaking, the higher a project's internal rate of return, the
more desirable it is to undertake the project. As such, IRR can be used to
rank several prospective projects a firm is considering. Assuming all
other factors are equal among the various projects, the project with the
highest IRR would probably be considered the best and undertaken first.
IRR is sometimes referred to as "economic rate of return (ERR)."
You can think of IRR as the rate of growth a project is expected to
generate. While the actual rate of return that a given project ends up
generating will often differ from its estimated IRR rate, a project with a
substantially higher IRR value than other available options would still
provide a much better chance of strong growth.
[4]. Discounted Payback Period .
One of the major disadvantages of simple payback period is that it
ignores the time value of money. To counter this limitation, an
alternative procedure called discounted payback period may be
followed, which accounts for time value of money by discounting the
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cash inflows of the project.
Formulas and Calculation Procedure
In discounted payback period we have to calculate the present value of
each cash inflow taking the start of the first period as zero point. For this
purpose the management has to set a suitable discount rate. The
discounted cash inflow for each period is to be calculated using the
formula:
Discounted Cash Inflow = Actual Cash Inflow
(1 + i)n
Where,
i is the discount rate;
n is the period to which the cash inflow relates.
Usually the above formula is split into two components which are actual
cash inflow and present value factor ( i.e. 1 / ( 1 + i )^n ). Thus
discounted cash flow is the product of actual cash flow and present
value factor.The rest of the procedure is similar to the calculation of
simple payback period except that we have to use the discounted cash
flows as calculated above instead of actual cash flows. The cumulative
cash flow will be replaced by cumulative discounted cash flow.
Discounted Payback Period = A + B
C
Where,
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A = Last period with a negative discounted cumulative cash flow;
B = Absolute value of discounted cumulative cash flow at the end of
the period A;
C = Discounted cash flow during the period after A.
Note: In the calculation of simple payback period, we could use an
alternative formula for situations where all the cash inflows were even.
That formula won't be applicable here since it is extremely unlikely that
discounted cash inflows will be even.
The calculation method is illustrated in the example below.
Decision Rule:- If the discounted payback period is less that the target
period, accept the project. Otherwise reject.
Example:- An initial investment of $2,324,000 is expected to generate
$600,000 per year for 6 years. Calculate the discounted payback period
of the investment if the discount rate is 11%.
Solution :- Step 1: Prepare a table to calculate discounted cash flow of
each period by multiplying the actual cash flows by present value factor.
Create a cumulative discounted cash flow column.
Year
no.
Cash Flow
CF
Present
Value
Factor
PV$1=1/(1
+i)n
Discounted Cash
Flow
CF×PV$1
Cumulative
Discounted
Cash Flow
0 $ −2,324,000 1.0000 $ −2,324,000 $ −2,324,000
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1 600,000 0.9009 540,541 − 1,783,459
2 600,000 0.8116 486,973 − 1,296,486
3 600,000 0.7312 438,715 − 857,771
4 600,000 0.6587 395,239 − 462,533
5 600,000 0.5935 356,071 − 106,462
6 600,000 0.5346 320,785 214,323
Step 2: Discounted Payback Period = 5 + |-106,462| / 320,785 ≈ 5.32
years
Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantage: Discounted payback period is more reliable than simple
payback period since it accounts for time value of money. It is
interesting to note that if a project has negative net present value it won't
pay back the initial investment.
Disadvantage: It ignores the cash inflows from project after the
payback period.
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CH - 7.Capital Rationing.
Capital rationing is a strategy used by organizations attempting to limit
the costs of their own investments. Typically, a company engaging in
capital rationing has made unsuccessful investments of capital in the
recent past and would like to raise the return on those investments prior
to engaging in new business.
Why Ration Capital : The main goal of capital rationing is to protect a
company from over-investing its assets. If this were to occur, the
company might continue to see low return on investment and even face
a compromised financial position. Further, this can cause a company's
stock to drop.
How to Ration Capital
The main device for capital rationing is increasing the cost of capital.
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"Cost of capital" is a term used to describe the cost of debt and equity,
and it can be raised or lowered based on the company's willingness to
borrow money or issue stocks. A company can increase the cost of
capital by borrowing less, thus making it more challenging to invest.
The company would engage in new products only if the anticipated
return is higher than the new cost of capital. For example, raising the
cost of capital from 10 percent to 5 percent would demand the company
see a 5 percent higher return on any future investment than on those in
the past.
What are the benefits of capital rationing?
The main benefit of capital rationing is budgeting a company's
corporate resources. When a company issues stock or borrows money, it
can use these resources for new investments. However, if the company
does not see a good return on investments, it is wasting these resources.
By capital rationing, which is the process of increasing the cost of
capital, the company can make sure it takes on fewer projects. Further, it
can take on only projects for which the anticipated return on investment
is high. This will prevent the company from over-extending its finances,
which would cause a decrease in stock price and stability.
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CH - 8. Bibliography.
Refers from the books of “Advanced Financial Management”.
www.slideshare.com
Refers from “Investopedia Notes”.
Refers from the Notes of “Financial Management of M.B.A”.