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Indicators

Of

Economic Prospects

Presented By :-

Simi Joy

E.N. - 22

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Developed to forecast the turning points of the businesscycle.

Based on Timing :-

Leading indicators designed to predict economicrecessions. Coincident Indicators designed to move concurrently

with the business cycle.

Lagging indicators designed to follow behind thecycle.

Economic Indicators

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History of Economic Indicators

Developed at National Bureau of research in the 1930s.

Published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis inBCD (Binary Coded Decimal) 1961.

Published by the Conference Board since 1995 (tcb-indicators.org).

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Coincident Indicators

Used by the Business Cycle dating Committee to identifypeaks and troughs.

Employment Production Personal income Manufacturing sales

Trade (wholesale and retail) sales

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Leading Indicators

Average weekly hours. New orders. Consumer expectations.

Building Permits. Stock Prices. Interest Rate Spread.

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Lagging Indicators

Inventory-sales ratio. Change in unit labor costs. Average prime interest rate. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. Consumer credit to income ratio. Price of consumer services. Average duration of unemployment.

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Indian Economy - GrowthTrajectory

Average GDP growth at 8.9 per cent during 2003-08Real GDP grew at 8.8 per cent in 2010-11 (Q1) (6.0 per cent in 2009-10 (Q1))RBI places real GDP growth forecast at 8.5 per cent for 2010-11

P e r c e n

t

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

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India's SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS

High savings/investment.

Quality talent and IT.

Broad based and growing entrepreneurial class.

Market size. Language.

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WEAKNESSES

Physical infrastructure.

Agriculture.

Shortage of skilled manpower.

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OPPORTUNITIES

Knowledge based growth.

Increased integration with world economy.

Urbanization.

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THREATS

Global Uncertainty.

Climate change energy and food security.

Regional and social inequalities.

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